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Best I can tell: RuAF blew up strategic fuel reserves Wagner thought they'd be able to tap. Wagner outran their logistics. Both parties "negotiated" an outcome: Wagner gets a spill of seniors at the MOD in exchange for slow-walking back to the front. Until/unless they secure enough fuel to continue the push to Moscow. It's a race to see if Prigozhin gets the fuel he needs or the bullet he's earned first. Prigozhin either dead or keynote speaker at c-pac next year.
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Jun 24, 2023 23:25
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IPCRESS posted:Best I can tell: RuAF blew up strategic fuel reserves Wagner thought they'd be able to tap. Wagner outran their logistics. Both parties "negotiated" an outcome: Wagner gets a spill of seniors at the MOD in exchange for slow-walking back to the front. Until/unless they secure enough fuel to continue the push to Moscow. It's a race to see if Prigozhin gets the fuel he needs or the bullet he's earned first. Prigozhin either dead or keynote speaker at c-pac next year. Did they need fuel? They certainly seemed like they were doing just fine, but I have no real idea
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Jun 24, 2023 23:29
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Honestly, I'm struggling to see what the downside of all this is for Prig or Putin. It feels like a public tantrum and in the end it was sorted and....? Putin seems to have dealt with this minor insurrection. Prig made his point. I don't see in the end next Monday being at all any different from last Monday. As much as I and all of us may have wanted some schism in the end this was nothing. If anything , Putin won. Prig shot his wad and now is a non-factor. I'm not sure how Russia isn't better off now than before. Wagner was a wild card and played it's hand and now..it's not a significant outlier. What am I missing?
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Jun 24, 2023 23:29
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The downside is that Vladimir Vladmirovitch blinked, and a whole lot of Russians had their weekend plans ruined in the process.
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Jun 24, 2023 23:33
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And that an armed insurrection got a free pass, which is not exactly great when you're a dictator.
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Jun 24, 2023 23:34
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well that was a huge letdown
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Jun 24, 2023 23:35
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A hostile armored column rolled through Russia for the first time in almost eighty years during one of the most politically tenuous situations since the fall of the USSR. At an absolute minimum that's the kind of optics that demonstrates you have no testicular fortitude.
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Jun 24, 2023 23:37
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Yeah heh an attempted occupation of the capitol occurred and the leaders were mostly let go free immediately after. Im sure there will be no repercussions for this. -lies americans and putin tell themselves
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Jun 24, 2023 23:41
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OctaMurk posted:clancy himself would never have written such drivel We’re only like 1/3 through the book. If we’re going full Clancy then Prigozhin has a bunch of nukes from that army place and is taking them to a make a random African country a nuclear power in cooperation with China Or something, idk, it’s been a while since I read any of the later, crazier books.
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Jun 24, 2023 23:41
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Comrade Blyatlov posted:Did they need fuel? They certainly seemed like they were doing just fine, but I have no real idea Honestly, no idea. I'm trying to guess a compelling reason Prigozhin would do a u-turn on what seemed his best chance of staying alive. quote:And that an armed insurrection got a free pass, which is not exactly great when you're a dictator. Agree. It's a mafia state and the don just got shown up. IPCRESS fucked around with this message at 23:50 on Jun 24, 2023 |
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Jun 24, 2023 23:45
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RoyKeen posted:Honestly, I'm struggling to see what the downside of all this is for Prig or Putin. It feels like a public tantrum and in the end it was sorted and....? Putin seems to have dealt with this minor insurrection. Prig made his point. I don't see in the end next Monday being at all any different from last Monday. As much as I and all of us may have wanted some schism in the end this was nothing. If anything , Putin won. Prig shot his wad and now is a non-factor. I'm not sure how Russia isn't better off now than before. Wagner was a wild card and played it's hand and now..it's not a significant outlier. What am I missing? I think you might not be considering all the implications of the day's events.
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Jun 24, 2023 23:45
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Lovely Joe Stalin posted:I think you might not be considering all the implications of the day's events. I thought I was unless I missed something.
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Jun 24, 2023 23:47
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Hypothesis: Prig knew if he stayed at the front he personally was hosed. He led the revolt and gambled he'd be allowed to leave if he stood down, and now he takes his army to Belarus and goes from there to some small country to become a god-king.
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Jun 24, 2023 23:50
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I think we have the wrong author. I think prigozin is going to crave a fiefdom in belarus for mercenaries, and rename it ”outer heaven”. the whole coup-saberratling-test-of testicular torsion- thing makes much more sense as Kojima script, especially considering the amount of dramatic dialogue from all sides.
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Jun 24, 2023 23:52
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Oh poo poo I just saw that he really IS going into exile in Belarus, I really thought that was more Clancychat. What interests me most now, though, is what happens to the rest of Wagner. Going home to not shoot at people? Folded into the MoD's forces? Heading off to Syrian and African Wagner assignments? Losing a good chunk of them would hurt Russia's efforts some.
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Jun 24, 2023 23:52
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Belarus gonna invade Russia
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Jun 24, 2023 23:55
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As a rando on the internet who's been F5'ing my news feed for the past 24 hours, this is basically what I've managed to parse together so far: the bald Wagner ghoul was angry with how the Russian top brass was conducting their insane war of conquest in Ukraine so his mercenary troops barge in and occupy a major metropolitan area in southern Russia with little to no resistance from regular Russian forces. Then, after recording a video of himself conversing with the chief of Russia's southern military district (who looks visibly uncomfortable) the Wagner ghoul goes on what appears to have been a well planned thunder run towards Moscow including AA assets and heavy armor. They proceed to shoot down several Russian gunships as well as a fixed wing aircraft while local authorities cart out excavators to gently caress up their highway network by digging antitank ditches across all lanes. Then, with his troops at the edge of Moscow oblast, he gets off the phone with the Kremlin and declares "lmao nah just pranking bro", calls off the whole thing, and goes to live in Belarus while the Putin declares that actually they're cool with each other now and definitely won't execute everyone involved. Is that somewhat accurate? At least Russian history is never boring.
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Jun 25, 2023 00:01
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Lovely Joe Stalin posted:I think you might not be considering all the implications of the day's events.
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Jun 25, 2023 00:14
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PurpleXVI posted:Oh poo poo I just saw that he really IS going into exile in Belarus, I really thought that was more Clancychat.
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Jun 25, 2023 00:17
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What yhe gently caress do they do with the MoD units that flipped and sided with Wagner?
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Jun 25, 2023 00:32
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I want to say there's no way that this is over and they're both stalling because Putin and Prighozin both have to know the absolute first rule of coups for both sides is "no backsies" but then I realize that is a flavor of "they can't possibly be that stupid"
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Jun 25, 2023 00:33
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Radical 90s Wizard posted:What yhe gently caress do they do with the MoD units that flipped and sided with Wagner? Same thing they did to that embarrassing unit from Bucha. These dipshits are absolutely getting woodchippered in every hot spot from now until they're all gone.
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Jun 25, 2023 00:39
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I guessI was kinda being rhetorical but yea, if this is really what happens then lol prig is really just throwing all of his soldiers to the wolves and peacing out to Belarus
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Jun 25, 2023 00:43
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Its so nice of Belarus to just let Wagner come chill on their couch for a while
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Jun 25, 2023 00:44
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Radical 90s Wizard posted:I guessI was kinda being rhetorical but yea, if this is really what happens then lol prig is really just throwing all of his soldiers to the wolves and peacing out to Belarus Silly me, I thought he was looking out for his soldiers too
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Jun 25, 2023 00:49
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Anyone have sources for the resolution or "resolution" of this loving thing?
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Jun 25, 2023 01:08
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BBC has a fairly good ongoing thread https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-66006142
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Jun 25, 2023 01:18
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facialimpediment posted:I was going to write a post about how the outcome kinda makes sense for everyone involved, but then I realized I was applying rational thought to russian politics. It kinda does, though. I think Putin got saved by the war with Ukraine, because "if you two can't make a deal then fighting each other will take enough forces to benefit the Ukrainians" was probably a big incentive to agree on something, anything. Prigozhin can't keep up his charade of "I just want to fight the <slur>s more effectively" if he's engaged in firefights that are drawing troops east from the front lines, Putin obviously doesn't want to lose his pet Special Military Operation.
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Jun 25, 2023 01:38
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Akratic Method posted:It kinda does, though. I think Putin got saved by the war with Ukraine, because "if you two can't make a deal then fighting each other will take enough forces to benefit the Ukrainians" was probably a big incentive to agree on something, anything. Prigozhin can't keep up his charade of "I just want to fight the <slur>s more effectively" if he's engaged in firefights that are drawing troops east from the front lines, Putin obviously doesn't want to lose his pet Special Military Operation. At the same time, Wagner storming up the highway to Moscow to criticize the MoD essentially reveals to the whole country that the SMO isn't going so well. He's essentially demanding more of the country's attention and resources toward the war (as he called it) so it can be brought to an end sooner. Not gonna "gotta hand it to wagner", but he seems to truly see himself as a warrior and patriot ie. after taking Bakhmut he recognized the efforts of the UkAF, and after the retired Green Beret was killed he made sure the body was returned. Both MoD and Wagner are depraved but Prigo does things to command loyalty from his troops, and likely pays them on time.
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Jun 25, 2023 01:46
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Comrade Blyatlov posted:BBC has a fairly good ongoing thread Thanks man
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Jun 25, 2023 01:49
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Watching the twitter blue checks explain how this is good for Putin has been …enlightening. Apparently this will allow Wagner to open up a second front through Belarus to strike directly at Kyiv. I didn’t realize that strategic repositioning of troops required a false flag mutiny where you shoot down some aircraft and blow up a fuel depot. I am curious how this will affect Wagner operations in Africa. Mali is actively fighting IS with Wagner units and the CAR is the typical clusterfuck that it is. Maybe Mali invites the French back?
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Jun 25, 2023 02:20
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imadethis posted:Watching the twitter blue checks explain how this is good for Putin has been …enlightening. Apparently this will allow Wagner to open up a second front through Belarus to strike directly at Kyiv. I didn’t realize that strategic repositioning of troops required a false flag mutiny where you shoot down some aircraft and blow up a fuel depot. Are these the same blue checkmarks proclaiming that somehow the CIA had flipped Wagner in order to draw attention away from Hunter Biden's laptop?
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Jun 25, 2023 02:36
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Comrade Blyatlov posted:Silly me, I thought he was looking out for his soldiers too hilarious that the biggest effect of this deal is that the wagner mid level officers have significant incentives to murk prigozhin and putin now e: the incentive being, maybe less chance of Spicy Tea? shame on an IGA fucked around with this message at 02:43 on Jun 25, 2023 |
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Jun 25, 2023 02:40
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hello future king of belarus, prigozhin? smells like another signature vladimir putin deal where he gives away a literal kings ransom and a chunk of his country to make a military disaster go away? or do they just flee via belarus? The kadyrov deal is an interesting thing to look back on for what is possible and what things putin actually might accept. It turned a massive political and military disaster into a private warlord who unconditionally supported him for the small price of 300 billion rubles a year. what a day of news to wake up to e: was indeed too freshly awake and hasty to try to make sense of this, luka probably fine albeit probably not in a rush to have a ton of wagner present for too long Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 04:49 on Jun 25, 2023 |
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Jun 25, 2023 02:45
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Herstory Begins Now posted:hello future king of belarus, prigozhin? smells like another signature vladimir putin deal where he gives away a literal kings ransom and a chunk of his country to make a military disaster go away? or do they just flee via belarus? I if it was me i'd be using this to say 'gently caress yall' and take my private army to overthrow some small country somewhere i have no idea if that is what prig is planning at this point given how insane the last 48 hours have been, i can only assume he's going to switch sides and fight for ukraine or something ridiculous instead
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Jun 25, 2023 02:52
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yeah no loving clue what happens next beyond that I would be incredibly uncomfortable if I was the ostensible leader of wherever he and wagner end up.
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Jun 25, 2023 02:54
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Herstory Begins Now posted:hello future king of belarus, prigozhin smells yeah he does!!!!
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Jun 25, 2023 02:56
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smells like soup. the worst
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Jun 25, 2023 03:02
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ngl, prigozhin has always been a guy who looks like he showers 3 times a month
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Jun 25, 2023 03:04
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Comrade Blyatlov posted:if it was me i'd be using this to say 'gently caress yall' and take my private army to overthrow some small country somewhere
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Jun 25, 2023 03:08
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