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(Thread IKs: weg, Toxic Mental)
 
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EorayMel
May 30, 2015

WE GET IT. YOU LOVE GUN JESUS. Toujours des fusils Bullpup Français.
Very successful, strong, brave leaders make public speeches about not giving the rebels what they want and then pinwheel their legs to private villas the moment the capital might be in danger and then provide the rebels what they want the moment they are within striking distance of the capital.

I am a very strong, wise, competent, feared and respected leader who values independent decision-making and immunity to persuasion or influence from others as I close major highways while installing mines amid the iron spaghetti because I am just that AWESOME and I am far more powerful after the concessions than before :actually:

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tiaz
Jul 1, 2004

PICK UP THAT PRESENT.


Zelensky's Zealots

RoyKeen posted:

Maybe not a "W" but best of everyone involved at the moment. poo poo escalated quickly. I'm not saying the problem was fixed or that everything is awesome in the end for those fuckheads. But Putin didn't risk a coup and Prigozhin got to walk away when he was on a weak footing was beneficial to both of them. Maybe not to the rest of the world but for those two specific shitheads it worked out as best as could be.

okay, I think this is the crux of the disagreement: you keep saying the outcome was beneficial for them in a way that suggests overall. everyone is telling you that Putin at least is in a worse position than he was prior to the beginning of this coup or whatever it is. the consensus seems to be that both of them are actually worse off. if you're comparing it to the situation right before the agreement was hammered out and Prigozhin called a halt, fine, their circumstances have improved but less than they've fallen over the course of the event; you might as well credit a man who has fallen off a ladder for solving his problems vis-a-vis falling to the ground in a timely fashion by impacting said ground. yes he's no longer falling, no he's not better off.

Blue Raider
Sep 2, 2006

new goon project conquer the russian federation

Sydney Bottocks
Oct 15, 2004

Mr.PayDay posted:

Because this is the Ukraine War thread and what happened was that the - according the coverage - most powerful, experienced and brutal paramilitary force left the Warfront and declared war against the Russian MoD leaders and were on their way to Moskow until they weren’t.
So it’s obviously crucial to elaborate what does this mean for this War if Putin is weakened now.
The murdering of civilians did not stop a minute.

Let me rephrase it: why do you keep asking a question that literally nobody in the world has an answer for

Tigey
Apr 6, 2015

RoyKeen posted:

But where is the next Wagner? Maybe elements of the Russian military could step up but I suspect it might be harder in that environment. I'm all for it.
The state's monopoly on the use of organised violence in Russia has been steadily eroded especially over the last year. Multiple institutions and individuals, from Gazprom, to Shoigu, have set up their own private military forces. And of course Kadyrov has his longstanding militia.

Are any of these formations on the scale of Wagner or with anywhere near the equipment or experience? Nope, and its unlikely any of them could directly storm and overrun Moscow themselves. But they still represent potential independent power bases that each of these parties could use to go off and do their own thing, or present a localised threat, especially in areas where there aren't Rosgardia garrisons, etc.

Putin's authority and power have definitely been diluted by this. Its been shown that you can challenge him, march toward the capital, and get away with it, with concessions to boot.

Renreeja
Oct 11, 2007

my question is what did the front look like with these guys gone? Any opportunity for Ukraine to make gains or were they just watching and eating popcorn at the imminent collapse of Russia?

Automatic Slim
Jul 1, 2007

Since when has Putin ever kept an agreement longer than it suited him to break it?

Chief McHeath
Apr 23, 2002
Probation
Can't post for 3 days!
folks everyone is overreacting, putin is still in charge and in fact has not been weakened at all he just flew to st pete because he fancied a swim in the baltic

god please help me
Jul 9, 2018
I LOVE GIVING MY TAX MONEY AND MY PERSONAL INCOME TO UKRAINE, SLAVA
I think we can all reach across the aisle and agree that the Russian government and everyone involved is dumb as poo poo.

Arsenic Lupin
Apr 12, 2012

This particularly rapid💨 unintelligible 😖patter💁 isn't generally heard🧏‍♂️, and if it is🤔, it doesn't matter💁.


Renreeja posted:

my question is what did the front look like with these guys gone? Any opportunity for Ukraine to make gains or were they just watching and eating popcorn at the imminent collapse of Russia?

I've closed all my browser windows, but they did press hard into Bakhmut while the Russians were otherwise occupied.

the holy poopacy
May 16, 2009

hey! check this out
Fun Shoe

Mr.PayDay posted:

Because this is the Ukraine War thread and what happened was that the - according the coverage - most powerful, experienced and brutal paramilitary force left the Warfront and declared war against the Russian MoD leaders and were on their way to Moskow until they weren’t.
So it’s obviously crucial to elaborate what does this mean for this War if Putin is weakened now.
The murdering of civilians did not stop a minute.

Yeah, no one really suggested that this would have a major impact on the war and many people pointed out that the immediate impact would be minimal. Ukraine made a little ground in Wagner-heavy sectors where they were already making a little ground (probably because Wagner was siphoning resources leading up to the putsch.) Russian army morale is probably going to be slightly shittier.

Putin's long term prospects are diminished but he's 70 and not in perfect health, he had a limited time left in power anyhow.

Bluemillion
Aug 18, 2008

I got your dispensers
right here

Dr Spangle posted:

this went from desert storm to desert bus

Y'all slept on this great post.

War Wizard
Jan 4, 2007

:)

Chief McHeath posted:

folks everyone is overreacting, putin is still in charge and in fact has not been weakened at all he just flew to st pete because he fancied a swim in the baltic

I'm sure it will be logged as "scheduled maintenance"

Mr.PayDay
Jan 2, 2004
life is short - play hard

Sydney Bottocks posted:

Let me rephrase it: why do you keep asking a question that literally nobody in the world has an answer for

You talk about ramifications no one in the world has an answer for, so you have the same problem, I guess?
We are both in a stalemate, so I rephrase it, too:

In this context the „Putin is weaker now“ debate is useless or even irrelevant. It does not help the Ukraine right now or paint a better vision, and that was my point earlier.

ZogrimAteMyHamster
Dec 8, 2015



Cartoon Man
Jan 31, 2004


Coup d’blyat status: :flaccid:

Stubear St. Pierre
Feb 22, 2006

Blue Raider posted:

new goon project conquer the russian federation

No need, actually. It's perfect and stronger than ever

Blue Raider
Sep 2, 2006


no. please….!

RoyKeen
Jul 24, 2007

Grimey Drawer

tiaz posted:

okay, I think this is the crux of the disagreement: you keep saying the outcome was beneficial for them in a way that suggests overall. everyone is telling you that Putin at least is in a worse position than he was prior to the beginning of this coup or whatever it is. the consensus seems to be that both of them are actually worse off. if you're comparing it to the situation right before the agreement was hammered out and Prigozhin called a halt, fine, their circumstances have improved but less than they've fallen over the course of the event; you might as well credit a man who has fallen off a ladder for solving his problems vis-a-vis falling to the ground in a timely fashion by impacting said ground. yes he's no longer falling, no he's not better off.

I'm honestly not trying to be a contrarian. Nor am I a fan of Putin. I just want that out of the way.

Set Prigozhin aside. I do think the fact that he walked away is a win for him. But I don't see him as a factor from now on. Maybe he'll be dumb and stick his nose in things and be vocal and get defenestrated at some point.

I think this was the best outcome for both Prigozhin and Putin.

I will argue that the fact that Prigozhin, who has been a vocal annoyance and distraction for the Russians, is now out of the picture, is beneficial for Putin. This was the biggest threat to Putin and he's still in power.

I plead ignorance but I'm not sure who will be a threat to Putin a week from now. Putin was never that safe. There are plenty of people who hate him and want him out. Who has the power to be any threat now after Prigozhin and Wagner? There are small threats. There always has been. Some upstart with a pistol or whatever. But is there another military, organized threat to Putin anymore? Maybe Wagner is still an issue. I can't say.

Sydney Bottocks
Oct 15, 2004

Mr.PayDay posted:

You talk about ramifications no one in the world has an answer for, so you have the same problem, I guess?
We are both in a stalemate, so I rephrase it, too:

In this context the „Putin is weaker now“ debate is useless or even irrelevant. It does not help the Ukraine right now or paint a better vision, and that was my point earlier.

At this point, I think any further discussion on this topic between us is useless, because we're talking around each other.

EorayMel
May 30, 2015

WE GET IT. YOU LOVE GUN JESUS. Toujours des fusils Bullpup Français.
Stupid shitpost I shouldn't be making because this is a dead horse topic:

:shrek: Putin W's: not dead from rear end cancer or getting double tapped by a mosin nagant in the past 24 hours I guess? This feels so tenuous and generous that I don't how you can count this as a W though, so at the very least, I, personally, can't and won't. Can also say him being alive means there's more room for further humiliation and smearing his legacy even more IE what if someone else does this again and Putin's response is the same? Doubly so because his treasured strongman image is loving gone now lol. Plus any of the losses Russia suffered in Ukraine during all of this doesn't help.

:manning: Prigozhin W's: Successfully made Putin flee Moscow by following on a threat. Successfully shot down several aircraft and killed about a dozen pro-Putin personnel. Successfully took over Rostov and likely is in full control of all the supplies needed on Russia's front line in Ukraine. Successfully got Putin to capitulate on at least some of what Prigozhin wanted (Two biggest ones are Belarus permission and not worrying about Wagner being assimilated into the Russian military.) Probably a few other things nobody can accurately guess, at least at this point in time. All of this is with the caveat that Prigozhin is probably marked for death by any means necessary now, unless he truly made Putin look like a useless bitch. We can only wait and see.

:ukraine: Ukraine's W's: A considerable reduction of enemy soldiers and weapons that Ukraine has to deal with for the war, making the counteroffensive and most likely any future operations that much less awful. Zelensky looks like a god, choosing to stay and tough it out through all the odds while Putin looks absolutely loving worthless. Intelligence ministers probably laughing their asses off while enjoying big hot bowls of soup as they watch Russia poo poo the bed on a brand new level. Wagner is also incredibly unlikely to return to Ukraine at some point, and given how Wagner tended to be the most dangerous/well equipped of the Russian forces, this definitely isn't going to hurt Ukraine. Also all the free PR boosts of Ukraine staying and fighting against an enemy in shambles that can't competently deal with disgruntled soldiers pointing their guns back at the homeland.

im gay

Tarkus
Aug 27, 2000

Putin is much stronger now. His stench is impervious to all weapons.

Mr.PayDay
Jan 2, 2004
life is short - play hard

the holy poopacy posted:

Yeah, no one really suggested that this would have a major impact on the war and many people pointed out that the immediate impact would be minimal. Ukraine made a little ground in Wagner-heavy sectors where they were already making a little ground (probably because Wagner was siphoning resources leading up to the putsch.) Russian army morale is probably going to be slightly shittier.

Putin's long term prospects are diminished but he's 70 and not in perfect health, he had a limited time left in power anyhow.

What’s absolutely diffuse in the picture is that Putin has a full squad of Generals and staff.
Even if Putin dies/is gone it’s hard to believe the pre-1989 fantasy gang won’t continue the „re-uniting“ of the USSR.
I doubt the geopolitical agenda of the executives in charge changes after Putin is gone. He makes it just easy to hide behind now.

Molothecat
Jul 25, 2007

Wrath, hate, pain, and death!


hmmmm.... go on....

EorayMel
May 30, 2015

WE GET IT. YOU LOVE GUN JESUS. Toujours des fusils Bullpup Français.

Molothecat posted:

hmmmm.... go on....

Check out Kinnikuman it owns OP

necroid
May 14, 2009

zone posted:

Either way let me get some mileage out of this meme at least


lol

War Wizard
Jan 4, 2007

:)
I like that maybe Wagner Mercs aren't happy with the deal because it means the MoD merger is going to have extra infighting baked in.

Tarkus
Aug 27, 2000

They're going to kill all of the Wagner higher ups and their families as Prig is banished to Belarus.

3D Megadoodoo
Nov 25, 2010

Lukashenka is going to fall out a window and Prigozhin is going to be eating big carrots with Steven Seagal. That was the deal.

ZogrimAteMyHamster
Dec 8, 2015

Meanwhile, Freedom of Russia Legion plans their next insane border-crossing shake-up just as Vladolf Shitler settles down thinking everything Russian is now under control.

Tigey
Apr 6, 2015

Mr.PayDay posted:

the Ukraine.
Hmmm

Doctor Butts
May 21, 2002

Russia is an extremely hosed up country.

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

You know here's the really terrifying thing about this that we can actually discuss without speculating and I can't speculate. Two different groups were able to get within a few miles of the nuclear weapons in russia. That's not a joke that's not something that can be debated the nuclear weapons in Russia were almost taken by two non-state actors over the course of a month a loving month.

Kchama
Jul 25, 2007

Mr.PayDay posted:

You talk about ramifications no one in the world has an answer for, so you have the same problem, I guess?
We are both in a stalemate, so I rephrase it, too:

In this context the „Putin is weaker now“ debate is useless or even irrelevant. It does not help the Ukraine right now or paint a better vision, and that was my point earlier.

Are you doing a bit?

CAT INTERCEPTOR
Nov 9, 2004

Basically a male Margaret Thatcher

EorayMel posted:

Stupid shitpost I shouldn't be making because this is a dead horse topic:

:shrek: Putin W's: not dead from rear end cancer or getting double tapped by a mosin nagant in the past 24 hours I guess? This feels so tenuous and generous that I don't how you can count this as a W though, so at the very least, I, personally, can't and won't. Can also say him being alive means there's more room for further humiliation and smearing his legacy even more IE what if someone else does this again and Putin's response is the same? Doubly so because his treasured strongman image is loving gone now lol. Plus any of the losses Russia suffered in Ukraine during all of this doesn't help.

:manning: Prigozhin W's: Successfully made Putin flee Moscow by following on a threat. Successfully shot down several aircraft and killed about a dozen pro-Putin personnel. Successfully took over Rostov and likely is in full control of all the supplies needed on Russia's front line in Ukraine. Successfully got Putin to capitulate on at least some of what Prigozhin wanted (Two biggest ones are Belarus permission and not worrying about Wagner being assimilated into the Russian military.) Probably a few other things nobody can accurately guess, at least at this point in time. All of this is with the caveat that Prigozhin is probably marked for death by any means necessary now, unless he truly made Putin look like a useless bitch. We can only wait and see.

:ukraine: Ukraine's W's: A considerable reduction of enemy soldiers and weapons that Ukraine has to deal with for the war, making the counteroffensive and most likely any future operations that much less awful. Zelensky looks like a god, choosing to stay and tough it out through all the odds while Putin looks absolutely loving worthless. Intelligence ministers probably laughing their asses off while enjoying big hot bowls of soup as they watch Russia poo poo the bed on a brand new level. Wagner is also incredibly unlikely to return to Ukraine at some point, and given how Wagner tended to be the most dangerous/well equipped of the Russian forces, this definitely isn't going to hurt Ukraine. Also all the free PR boosts of Ukraine staying and fighting against an enemy in shambles that can't competently deal with disgruntled soldiers pointing their guns back at the homeland.

Pretty decent assesment. Putin really was the loser here

quote:

im gay

Hi Gay, I'm Cat - how are you?

sweet thursday
Sep 16, 2012

You guys are talking about Putin having egg on his face like he isn't a messy bitch who loves eggs

3D Megadoodoo
Nov 25, 2010

This all looks like a huge "ah, well, nevertheless".

Coolguye
Jul 6, 2011

Required by his programming!

deported to Canada posted:

This is just bonkers. Like take a minute to sit down and think about what's happening inside your head bonkers.

I have no hate for you at all, but I've been happy to take the piss because of posts like the one quoted. It's perfectly fine to be a contrarian or to have ideas different to others, but you have been beating your own dead horse over this "how can this be bad for Putin?" thing you keep doing. There are plenty of posts in this thread where people from all walks of life have expressed their views on what this could possibly mean, including how this could be bad for Russia/Putin or what it could mean to the situation in Ukraine. But you have simply ignored all those opinions in favour of your own and ran with this "how can this be bad for Putin? debate me!" crap while pretending that nobody can understand the point you are making.

We understand.

You are not the victim here. Nobody hates you. We all need to chill out.

yeah i decided i'd had more than enough of that exchange after he backlashed on me for agreeing with him lol

Samuel L. Hacksaw
Mar 26, 2007

Never Stop Posting

WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:

You know here's the really terrifying thing about this that we can actually discuss without speculating and I can't speculate. Two different groups were able to get within a few miles of the nuclear weapons in russia. That's not a joke that's not something that can be debated the nuclear weapons in Russia were almost taken by two non-state actors over the course of a month a loving month.

Wait what was the first time? Did the People's Liberation Front of Russia or whatever they're called almost seize a nuke base?

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WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

Samuel L. Hacksaw posted:

Wait what was the first time? Did the People's Liberation Front of Russia or whatever they're called almost seize a nuke base?

Yeah the Russian liberation people's frontier whatever also got very close to the nuclear storage facility

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