(Thread IKs:
fatherboxx)
|
The helicopters were likely shot down as a precaution by Wagner, it's much easier to engage with a pantsir against a circling attack craft than to shoot an actual person.WarpedLichen posted:This is like a baby tantrum that played out extremely publicly, it could've been solved behind close doors extremely easily if the figures at play understood their relative strengths and weaknesses. Basically, this is saying that Putin in backing the MOD, had no clue about how weak his grasp on the military is vs even a clown like Prigozhin. If he had any clue, he wouldn't have let this play out in public like it has. There's been a lot about Putin being in an information bubble the last few years and I think that's really obvious now. He doesn't have an accurate assessment of how secure he is or how loyal/capable different branches of his government are.
|
#
?
Jun 25, 2023 16:36
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 7, 2024 09:03 |
|
|
Deviant posted:apparently twitter's new galaxy brain take is that this was all a 5 dimensional ruse to position wagner near kyiv via belarus? I'd love to know how someone could argue this was the simplest way to achieve this.
|
|
#
?
Jun 25, 2023 16:37
|
|
|
I feel bad for the Ukrainians who hoped for more: (the guardian) For nearly 24 hours, millions of Ukrainians believed that the war with Russia might be nearing its conclusion. From 9am on Friday, when Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin announced his march on Moscow, until 8pm on Saturday, when mercenary troops with their tanks and armoured vehicles were just over 180 miles (300km) from the Russian capital, the battered country glimpsed the end of Putin’s regime. Then, suddenly, when the Russian warlord called off his advance, the revived enthusiasm quickly ebbed away, giving way to disappointment and frustration, with many refusing to believe the Belarusian-brokered deal to end the armed uprising was real. “I had positive feelings,” said Serhii, 27, from Kyiv. “There was hope at first, there was hope for a coup. Hope that it will all be over. Hope that there was going to be a change of power in Russia and a troops withdrawal from Ukraine. Then, suddenly that was it! End of the movie. Nothing happened... I felt so disappointed.”
|
|
#
?
Jun 25, 2023 16:43
|
|
|
Chalks posted:I'd love to know how someone could argue this was the simplest way to achieve this. "They couldn't just MOVE there without it being heavily publicized, that would be too obvious. Better to stage a coup and then exile them to a different country so they can attack on the way there. Also destroy some really important Russian equipment just to make sure it's more realistic."
|
|
#
?
Jun 25, 2023 16:47
|
|
|
Deviant posted:apparently twitter's new galaxy brain take is that this was all a 5 dimensional ruse to position wagner near kyiv via belarus? By making Putin look untenably weak? Even if you accept the idea that this is a grand conspiracy with every part of the Russian government in on, it still looks like Putin isn't in control internally. The current Russian strategy seems to be maintain a stalemate long enough for the US and the EU to get restless and press Ukraine to make concessions. That no longer seems possible if you make your government look wildly unstable.
|
|
#
?
Jun 25, 2023 16:52
|
|
|
Chalks posted:The state of the Kakhovka reservoir at the moment There was a cool set of analysis on this shortly after the dam blew where they were looking at the sunken roads in the 1940s and working out the best way you could use them in theory: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1671236411725426689.html Summary: https://twitter.com/davidhelms570/status/1671236465273995267 I think it's a mixed bag there, there might be less mines and fortifications but you're in a lower elevation region with 0 cover for miles.
|
|
#
?
Jun 25, 2023 16:54
|
|
|
How would armor fare trying to drive across that? Those footprints are pretty deep. Edit: Stupid words Bashez fucked around with this message at 18:00 on Jun 25, 2023 |
|
#
?
Jun 25, 2023 17:04
|
|
|
I dont know posted:By making Putin look untenably weak? Even if you accept the idea that this is a grand conspiracy with every part of the Russian government in on, it still looks like Putin isn't in control internally. The current Russian strategy seems to be maintain a stalemate long enough for the US and the EU to get restless and press Ukraine to make concessions. That no longer seems possible if you make your government look wildly unstable. The other thing is the reason Wagner saw so much success yesterday because no one did anything to stop them. Trying to pull some Hail-Mary play with Wagner attacking Kyiv from Belarus wouldn't work. The Russians did it with three times as many people and they were ground to dirt. In other news, the bloviating class has final gotten back from their 24-hour commercial break to start talking about what happened yesterday. It also appears major highways are still blockaded. https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1672882474710335489?s=20 https://twitter.com/tea_raha/status/1672891655664422913?s=20
|
|
#
?
Jun 25, 2023 17:08
|
|
|
Bashez posted:How would armor fair trying to drive across that? Those footprints are pretty deep. Last spring showed us that Soviet-era armour doesn't particularly enjoy deep mud at least.
|
|
#
?
Jun 25, 2023 17:08
|
|
|
Deviant posted:apparently twitter's new galaxy brain take is that this was all a 5 dimensional ruse to position wagner near kyiv via belarus? Yeah, the lull in development is giving oxygen to some wild speculation (I'm guilty of speculation too but less grand stuff imo). I'm sticking to reading from my favorite sources since the war began now. Appears Moscow is still on heightened alert and Polish MP anticipates purges according to the BBC. Will be worth seeing if security measures are extended past Monday. quote:Anti-terror security measures are still in place in Moscow, but it is unclear whether President Putin is even in the Russian capital at the moment...
|
|
#
?
Jun 25, 2023 17:09
|
|
|
Chalks posted:The state of the Kakhovka reservoir at the moment If one guy leaves such deep footprints, imagine how a 4x4 or IFV will fair. Clay flats can be difficult to cross. e: OTOH looking forward to next winter, once the ground freezes it's going to be a different story. Then it's a question of can the remaining waterways be crossed & what avoids on the other side. It might not be doable for Ukraine, but Russians will need to keep the banks well defended. 
Nenonen fucked around with this message at 17:25 on Jun 25, 2023 |
|
#
?
Jun 25, 2023 17:18
|
|
|
The fact that there seemed to be roughly 3 helicopter pilots between the border with Ukraine and Moscow who were willing to try and stop the rebel army does not exactly scream "Putin enjoys the support of his armed forces".
|
|
#
?
Jun 25, 2023 17:23
|
|
|
Irony Be My Shield posted:The fact that there seemed to be roughly 3 helicopter pilots between the border with Ukraine and Moscow who were willing to try and stop the rebel army does not exactly scream "Putin enjoys the support of his armed forces". I bet those pilots were told to just check on the situation and that there would be no danger involved, lol (?)
|
|
#
?
Jun 25, 2023 17:25
|
|
|
TheRat posted:Last spring showed us that Soviet-era armour doesn't particularly enjoy deep mud at least. My impression is Western armor (at least MBTs) would hate it even more given that they tend to be heavier.
|
|
#
?
Jun 25, 2023 17:29
|
|
|
Sir John Falstaff posted:My impression is Western armor (at least MBTs) would hate it even more given that they tend to be heavier. My assumption would be that it would also depend on the foot print of the vehicle as well, like checking a maximum allowable deck load. Things like track width also probably matter a great deal.
|
|
#
?
Jun 25, 2023 17:46
|
|
|
Sir John Falstaff posted:My impression is Western armor (at least MBTs) would hate it even more given that they tend to be heavier. It's mainly a matter of ground pressure, so mass matters but so does track area that touches ground. Here's values for some basic tank models (kg/cm^2), actual values are higher depending on how much additional crap like ERA has been piled on them: M2 Bradley 0.54 BMP-2 0.63 T-54 0.83 T-80 0.92 T-90 0.94 Leopard 2 0.83 Challenger 2 1.00 M1A2 1.09 So no drastic differences.
|
|
#
?
Jun 25, 2023 17:48
|
|
|
|
|
#
?
Jun 25, 2023 17:49
|
|
|
Lukashenko has played the role of peace broker between Ukraine and Russia in the past, but this time is weird. Has anyone even seen Prigozhin since yesterday when he was on the road to Moscow?
|
|
#
?
Jun 25, 2023 17:51
|
|
|
Brain65 posted:More and more I think this stunt was all about money. Russian MoD probably didn't pay the group or withheld some payments because "it took you way too long to clear Bakhmut", subsequently wanted to force Wagner to fold into Army; Prigojin starts s#it to get paid, gets to 140km of Moskow with a full S300 in tow, money changes hands all of a sudden, mercenary group turns back and goes to Belorussia while their 'new recruits they got out of prison' go fight for Russia under new contracts (contracting out of prison being made legal today as well). Putin stays silent the whole day because he knows what motivates Prigojin ($$$) and sees this as a good opportunity to get the upper-hand on a bunch of generals and also see which other generals would betray him. I was hoping we'd get more of the https://youtu.be/dEbE3fGfF-o experience, but alas.
|
|
#
?
Jun 25, 2023 17:56
|
|
|
Surely this strengthens western resolve to continue backing Ukraine and maybe even increasing aid? You don't pull back when your rival is teetering on the brink right? Like even if the counteroffensive doesn't go as well as everybody hoped the internal state of Russia we were all just witnessed too means you've got to keep pushing?
|
|
#
?
Jun 25, 2023 17:56
|
|
|
HUGE PUBES A PLUS posted:Lukashenko has played the role of peace broker between Ukraine and Russia in the past, but this time is weird. Has anyone even seen Prigozhin since yesterday when he was on the road to Moscow? This was all Lukashenka's plot to murder Putin, Shoigu and Prigozhin in one go, which is why none of them have been seen in the last 24 hours! Or maybe there is just too much speculation about someone's lack of appearances. How many times has there been rumours that Putin has croaked because he's not made live appearances for a couple of days? Russians made the same claims about Zaluzhnyi when he hadn't been seen for some time. We just don't know what these people are doing behind the scenes, maybe historians will enlighten us one day.
|
|
#
?
Jun 25, 2023 17:57
|
|
|
HUGE PUBES A PLUS posted:Lukashenko has played the role of peace broker between Ukraine and Russia in the past, but this time is weird. Has anyone even seen Prigozhin since yesterday when he was on the road to Moscow? I think the last we've seen of him is in his SUV leaving Rostov-On-Don, greeting the crowds... https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1672741029877805057?t=maQrCtFidN340xexlAL-9Q&s=19
|
|
#
?
Jun 25, 2023 17:58
|
|
|
D-Pad posted:Surely this strengthens western resolve to continue backing Ukraine and maybe even increasing aid? You don't pull back when your rival is teetering on the brink right? Like even if the counteroffensive doesn't go as well as everybody hoped the internal state of Russia we were all just witnessed too means you've got to keep pushing? I think this is the correct take. When the main pillar of Putin’s strategy, such as it is, is to wear down the resolve of the fickle feckless West to support Ukraine, showing your own house to have a wobbly foundation is a major blow.
|
|
#
?
Jun 25, 2023 18:02
|
|
|
Nenonen posted:It's mainly a matter of ground pressure, so mass matters but so does track area that touches ground. Here's values for some basic tank models (kg/cm^2), actual values are higher depending on how much additional crap like ERA has been piled on them: Fair enough--I remember it being a talking point back when people were debating whether to send Western MBTs, but that may have been an excuse/misguided.
|
|
#
?
Jun 25, 2023 18:04
|
|
|
Young Freud posted:I think the last we've seen of him is in his SUV leaving Rostov-On-Don, greeting the crowds... https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1672999700998287363
|
|
#
?
Jun 25, 2023 18:05
|
|
|
D-Pad posted:Surely this strengthens western resolve to continue backing Ukraine and maybe even increasing aid? You don't pull back when your rival is teetering on the brink right? Like even if the counteroffensive doesn't go as well as everybody hoped the internal state of Russia we were all just witnessed too means you've got to keep pushing? Yep, and it's one of the reasons this whole thing being a psyop of some kind doesn't hold water, whatever objectives he might theoretically have achieved are far outweighed by the fact Western governments are now just waiting for Russia to enter the Cool Zone for longer than a day. The Company and MI6 are probably looking VERY closely at other potential rebels, whether those who might consider a coup or those who might consider a breakaway, and how to support them.
|
|
#
?
Jun 25, 2023 18:05
|
|
|
Deviant posted:apparently twitter's new galaxy brain take is that this was all a 5 dimensional ruse to position wagner near kyiv via belarus? Now look I get it, Anglo-Z twitter had to do some serious mental gymnastics to justify Russia's antics over the last year and change, but this is a re-run of a bad episode. They already spent months hyping up a surprise attack from Minsk and it never materialized, why bring this up again?
|
|
#
?
Jun 25, 2023 18:07
|
|
|
|
|
#
?
Jun 25, 2023 18:11
|
|
|
He's avoiding windows so it's very hard to get good service.
|
|
#
?
Jun 25, 2023 18:13
|
|
|
Another great Perun video, this time on the counteroffensive and its progress so far https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=olH2-_Gtczw
|
|
#
?
Jun 25, 2023 18:18
|
|
|
Sir John Falstaff posted:Fair enough--I remember it being a talking point back when people were debating whether to send Western MBTs, but that may have been an excuse/misguided. Not at all, it is still a concern regarding how weight the roads and bridges can support. Some tanks are just too heavy for many bridges (including Ukraine's own bridging equipment), and a column of super heavy tanks will absolutely devastate roads. The latter is more of a long term problem, though. T-90SM weighs 48 tonnes against Leopard 2A6's 62 tonnes or M1A2SEPv3's 67 tonnes. According to Wikipedia Challenger 2 weighs 64 tonnes by itself but can be kitted up to 75 tonnes.
|
|
#
?
Jun 25, 2023 18:19
|
|
|
Chalks posted:Another great Perun video, this time on the counteroffensive and its progress so far Zaluzhny wears Baby Yoda pins and uses single use vapes, a man of the people
|
|
#
?
Jun 25, 2023 18:21
|
|
|
Between the Free Russia Legion raids and the Wagner march proving how completely undefended Russian territory is would it be a dumb idea to bypass all of Luhansk's defenses by going through Russia to attack it from the north?
|
|
#
?
Jun 25, 2023 18:28
|
|
|
I don't know what thread I posted in yesterday but I was having issue with seeing how this is as damning for Putin as everyone seems to agree. And I'm not trying to argue in Putin's favor at all I'm just not seeing what everyone else seems to see and I'm admittedly at a bit of a loss. All that said, I'm not seeking to debate this here or in any forum but I'll just say that I'm open to PMs and am willing to be educated there. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
|
|
#
?
Jun 25, 2023 18:30
|
|
|
Senjuro posted:Between the Free Russia Legion raids and the Wagner march proving how completely undefended Russian territory is would it be a dumb idea to bypass all of Luhansk's defenses by going through Russia to attack it from the north? The fighters and vehicles for that would be more useful liberating occupied territories; air force that was not eager to bomb former allies alongside civilian traffic would not think twice when they see Bradleys rolling into Belgorod
|
|
#
?
Jun 25, 2023 18:30
|
|
|
Senjuro posted:Between the Free Russia Legion raids and the Wagner march proving how completely undefended Russian territory is would it be a dumb idea to bypass all of Luhansk's defenses by going through Russia to attack it from the north? Ukraine invading Russia proper even as the means to an end m is unlikely and would be used to justify awful poo poo imo.
|
|
#
?
Jun 25, 2023 18:31
|
|
|
Nenonen posted:Not at all, it is still a concern regarding how weight the roads and bridges can support. Some tanks are just too heavy for many bridges (including Ukraine's own bridging equipment), and a column of super heavy tanks will absolutely devastate roads. The latter is more of a long term problem, though. There was a thread somewhere on Ukraine's T-64 upgrades, and IIRC one of the things it turned out was that the 45ton T64BM had noticeably worse issues with ground pressure than the ... 42.5t T64BV.
|
|
#
?
Jun 25, 2023 18:32
|
|
|
D-Pad posted:Surely this strengthens western resolve to continue backing Ukraine and maybe even increasing aid? You don't pull back when your rival is teetering on the brink right? Like even if the counteroffensive doesn't go as well as everybody hoped the internal state of Russia we were all just witnessed too means you've got to keep pushing? Media is already crediting the Ukrainian counteroffensive with destabilizing Putin's regime, so this looks like a big win in terms of foreign support. Even if the Russians somehow managed to stop the offensive dead after this, I think they'd still be able to call it enough of a win.
|
|
#
?
Jun 25, 2023 18:32
|
|
|
RoyKeen posted:I don't know what thread I posted in yesterday but I was having issue with seeing how this is as damning for Putin as everyone seems to agree. And I'm not trying to argue in Putin's favor at all I'm just not seeing what everyone else seems to see and I'm admittedly at a bit of a loss. All that said, I'm not seeking to debate this here or in any forum but I'll just say that I'm open to PMs and am willing to be educated there. The concept that this will bolster western support for Ukraine due to making Russia look rickety and collapsable alone is really damning.
|
|
#
?
Jun 25, 2023 18:33
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 7, 2024 09:03 |
|
|
steinrokkan posted:I bet those pilots were told to just check on the situation and that there would be no danger involved, lol (?) My bet would be that they were supposed to jam comms to make synchronisation and propaganda broadcasts harder. That's why they ate a missile.
|
|
#
?
Jun 25, 2023 18:34
|
|
