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fatherboxx)
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Yeah it's really hard to argue that Ukrainian resistance is futile when Putin's regime was so obviously on the brink of collapse.
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Jun 25, 2023 18:35
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You could think of this like Russia having a rush to the hospital over a near heart attack. No heart attack ended up happening, and Russia was out the very next day. But like, if you're questioning issues of vitality and stamina in your long term planning? That's really damning data.
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Jun 25, 2023 18:36
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RoyKeen posted:I don't know what thread I posted in yesterday but I was having issue with seeing how this is as damning for Putin as everyone seems to agree. And I'm not trying to argue in Putin's favor at all I'm just not seeing what everyone else seems to see and I'm admittedly at a bit of a loss. All that said, I'm not seeking to debate this here or in any forum but I'll just say that I'm open to PMs and am willing to be educated there. There are loads of ways that this is bad for Putin. One of the ways he stays in power is by reassuring people that he's a strong leader and that their life will be unaffected by this war. This is the absolute opposite of that. Not only were people's lives affected, but person who did this will face no consequences. This also sends a message to other people who are dissatisfied with him, or might be in future. Also think about all the rhetoric about how Putin might react to Ukraine taking Crimea. Plenty of people talked about how Putin absolutely could not let it happen and when backed into a corner he was more dangerous than ever. Then Wagner backed him into a corner and within 48 hours he'd fled Moscow and capitulated. Try making that argument now.
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Jun 25, 2023 18:38
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Senjuro posted:Between the Free Russia Legion raids and the Wagner march proving how completely undefended Russian territory is would it be a dumb idea to bypass all of Luhansk's defenses by going through Russia to attack it from the north? Sounds like a tempting idea until you look at the map and realize that there's nothing of much strategically valuable in the north itself, trying to roll the lines from there to Mariupol would take too much time and resources while simultaneously making the spearheads vulnerable to attacks from Russian territory, the fortications continue on Russian side of border, and the northern end of the frontline inside Ukraine has a pretty deep buffer area between the first and last fortification lines. So in practise Winston Churchill would have approved this plan and never stopped hounding his generals about it.
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Jun 25, 2023 18:38
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Like maybe if Putin had successfully crushed Wagner and put Prigozhin's head on a pike you could argue that his authority had not been damaged. It also might not be so bad if he had managed to resolve the situation behind closed doors and make it seem like he was always sympathetic to Prigozhin's concerns. But in reality he was forced to capitulate to a man who he had called a traitor mere hours before, because he knew that he could not convince his own military to fight on his behalf. There is simply no possible way to spin this that doesn't make Putin look insanely weak, and I have no doubt other actors within Russia will look to exploit that in the near future.
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Jun 25, 2023 18:41
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RoyKeen posted:I don't know what thread I posted in yesterday but I was having issue with seeing how this is as damning for Putin as everyone seems to agree. And I'm not trying to argue in Putin's favor at all I'm just not seeing what everyone else seems to see and I'm admittedly at a bit of a loss. All that said, I'm not seeking to debate this here or in any forum but I'll just say that I'm open to PMs and am willing to be educated there. An internal challenge like this makes it unclear that he has control of the preponderance of force. It’s basically a precondition for revolution.
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Jun 25, 2023 18:44
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Nenonen posted:So in practise Winston Churchill would have approved this plan and never stopped hounding his generals about it. It's called the Ljubljana Gap, how hard can it be? Irony Be My Shield posted:Like maybe if Putin had successfully crushed Wagner and put Prigozhin's head on a pike you could argue that his authority had not been damaged. It also might not be so bad if he had managed to resolve the situation behind closed doors and make it seem like he was always sympathetic to Prigozhin's concerns. But in reality he was forced to capitulate to a man who he had called a traitor mere hours before, because he knew that he could not convince his own military to fight on his behalf. There is simply no possible way to spin this that doesn't make Putin look insanely weak, and I have no doubt other actors within Russia will look to exploit that in the near future. It definitely makes him look weaker, but I think capitulate is a strong word. We obviously don't know for sure what was agreed, but so far Putin hasn't given Priogzhin much.
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Jun 25, 2023 18:46
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Even the official state media postition is that freaking Lukashenko solved the crisis, not Putin, it is embarrasment all around
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Jun 25, 2023 18:46
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a pipe smoking dog posted:So that read is Prigozhin expected his convoy to hit some resistance there would be a tense stand off and then there would be a theatrical brotherly coming together where a deal is reached to save Russia. This actually makes sense. But Prigozhin definitely ended by playing himself by accidentally exposing Putin’s weakness, and I have yet to read anything explaining what leverage he has left after abandoning his march to Moscow. He can’t be so stupid that he actually thinks Putin will let him live after that.
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Jun 25, 2023 18:49
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saratoga posted:Media is already crediting the Ukrainian counteroffensive with destabilizing Putin's regime, so this looks like a big win in terms of foreign support. Even if the Russians somehow managed to stop the offensive dead after this, I think they'd still be able to call it enough of a win. Yeah, even if Ukraine don't militarily achieve anything, the fact that this happened during the counteroffensive means it can be pointed to as something putting enough pressure on Putin's warlords that the political situation is teetering. Of course, we have no way of knowing if the counter offensive had anything to do with this whole circus, but the fact that it is plausible is good enough.
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Jun 25, 2023 18:52
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fatherboxx posted:Even the official state media postition is that freaking Lukashenko solved the crisis, not Putin, it is embarrasment all around Finally Putin has found a credible successor and can retire gracefully
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Jun 25, 2023 18:53
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fatherboxx posted:Even the official state media postition is that freaking Lukashenko solved the crisis, not Putin, it is embarrasment all around Comedy outcome: Luka as president of a Russia-Belarus Union State (capital: Minsk).
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Jun 25, 2023 18:53
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fatherboxx posted:Even the official state media postition is that freaking Lukashenko solved the crisis, not Putin, it is embarrasment all around this is probably the single most unimaginable headline out of all of this if you'd told me about this a year ago
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Jun 25, 2023 18:55
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Herstory Begins Now posted:this is probably the single most unimaginable headline out of all of this if you'd told me about this a year ago Agreed, except a week
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Jun 25, 2023 18:56
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Irony Be My Shield posted:Like maybe if Putin had successfully crushed Wagner and put Prigozhin's head on a pike you could argue that his authority had not been damaged. It also might not be so bad if he had managed to resolve the situation behind closed doors and make it seem like he was always sympathetic to Prigozhin's concerns. But in reality he was forced to capitulate to a man who he had called a traitor mere hours before, because he knew that he could not convince his own military to fight on his behalf. There is simply no possible way to spin this that doesn't make Putin look insanely weak, and I have no doubt other actors within Russia will look to exploit that in the near future. Yeah. Power and authority are real but not tangible things and they can slip away and may be hard to ever regain once they have. You may have to power as a head of state to launch a nuclear weapon, but if all the military officers who would carry out that order have concluded you are weak and a disaster and refuse to do it when you issue the order, do you really have that power? Putin may command 200,000 men in his Praetorian Guard but if those men don’t move to oppose an armored column of 20,000 men moving towards the capitol, how much force does he really command? There is a scene in the old movie The Sand Pebbles that conveys this pretty well, about the era of gunboat diplomacy imperialism of America in China. A crew member of a small Navy ship is wanted by the local population, and the ship’s captain has decided he will not turn the man (who is disliked by the rest of the crew) over to the locals. A dangerous confrontation arises between the ship’s crew and the locals, and the crew, both because of self preservation and because of their dislike of the wanted man, start chanting to give the man up to the mob. In that moment the captain’s authority completely evaporated, was shown to be hollow, and in the following scene he has his service pistol out and is clearly contemplating suicide. If I recall, something had happened to defuse the situation and the ship did not have to turn over the wanted man, but the damage had been done.
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Jun 25, 2023 19:02
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https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1673001083642302468?cxt=HHwWiMC-teTn2LcuAAAA Good read, y'all quote:2. Prigozhin's objective was to draw Putin's attention and to impose a discussion about conditions to preserve his activities - a defined role, security, and funding. These weren't demands for a governmental overthrow; they were a desperate bid to save the enterprise...
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Jun 25, 2023 19:09
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Random Russian telegram channels claim that Shoigu is about to be arrested \ his direct subordinates are being investigated for corruption that will result in him being implicated and removed.  https://t.me/vchkogpu/39495
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Jun 25, 2023 19:18
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Irony Be My Shield posted:Yeah it's really hard to argue that Ukrainian resistance is futile when Putin's regime was so obviously on the brink of collapse. the only people ever arguing that were russian trolls and paid off US Politicians (assets). nothing will stop them from continuing to push obvious lies.
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Jun 25, 2023 19:18
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RockWhisperer posted:https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1673001083642302468?cxt=HHwWiMC-teTn2LcuAAAA Yeah, I think the first point may be the key to understanding why Prigozhin did what he did: quote:1️⃣ Prigozhin's rebellion wasn't a bid for power or an attempt to overtake the Kremlin. It arose from a sense of desperation; Prigozhin was forced out of Ukraine and found himself unable to sustain Wagner the way he did before, while the state machinery was turning against him. To top it off, Putin was ignoring him and publicly supporting his most dangerous adversaries. I'm less convinced by some of the later parts, although they are certainly plausible.
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Jun 25, 2023 19:21
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EasilyConfused posted:It's called the Ljubljana Gap, how hard can it be? Giving him anything other than a choice of whether he wants a blindfold when he faces the firing squad is a really bad look for a strongman leader though. Other types of regime can far more easily find a way to justify it because their power is much less obviously derived from their power.
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Jun 25, 2023 19:23
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A man so out of touch with Putin he almost accidentally conquered Moscow
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Jun 25, 2023 19:23
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Chalks posted:A man so out of touch with Putin he almost accidentally conquered Moscow Love (for the leader) will overcome all obstacles
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Jun 25, 2023 19:28
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EasilyConfused posted:Yeah, I think the first point may be the key to understanding why Prigozhin did what he did: Yeah, the part where he did not and could not make demands of leadership change at MoD seems off to me. Shoigu sounds like an existential threat for him and he'd have every incentive to want change.
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Jun 25, 2023 19:36
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Chalks posted:A man so out of touch with Putin he almost accidentally conquered Moscow Fuckin love it
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Jun 25, 2023 19:39
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I do kinda love the image of Prigo realizing he could actually conquer Russia by accident and being "uhhh".
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Jun 25, 2023 20:06
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Meanwhile on Sweden's NATO road, Erdogan has had a phone call with NATO's Stoltenberg and said that Sweden can't join as long as supporters of PKK can hold protests in Stockholm. Erdogan says that the new anti-terrorism laws that he demanded don't matter one cent as long as this can continue. It's starting to look increasingly unlikely that Sweden can join NATO in the July summit, although you never know with dictators how their moods swing. Fortunately Russia's threat has diminished significantly so we can afford the wait.
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Jun 25, 2023 20:07
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Footage from the Russian side of the river near Kherson reporting to show the evacuation of some Russian forces as the result of a small Ukrainian crossing there https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1673043506216984580 Very striking footage. I'm almost suspicious of it being altered, but I don't really see why that would have been done. The date of this footage is unclear but I don't think it's been seen before. Chalks fucked around with this message at 20:22 on Jun 25, 2023 |
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Jun 25, 2023 20:15
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Comstar posted:The Wagner guys are going to be spread through the whole army. Aren't all the Wagner guys army rejects? How do you get them to join after they just got kicked out?
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Jun 25, 2023 20:19
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I failed to notice Kofman's twitter take earlier. Another worthwhile read. https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1672999622032195584 quote:Was this a Russian intelligence failure? I doubt it. In DC we joke that something is either a policy success or an intelligence failure. In Russia, the failure of security services to adequately respond, ensuing confusion, and stupidity, are par de course. 12/ quote:This is in part how Wagner found itself so close to Rostov, reconstituting in training camps and deployed to the rear. Their units were not pulled off the line, hence Russian defense (especially in the south) is unlikely to suffer immediately from their absence. 16/ quote:There’s also the nagging question of whether anyone has seen Shoigu and Gerasimov, and what’s going to happen with them. As Prigozhin’s discussion with Alekseev in the SMD HQ illustrated, they are near universally detested in the Russian military. 18/ Edit: Gonna tack on this post too. Solovyov eating crow lol. https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1672792066135412739 RockWhisperer fucked around with this message at 20:29 on Jun 25, 2023 |
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Jun 25, 2023 20:20
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This was all so, so stupid.
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Jun 25, 2023 20:39
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Moon Slayer posted:This was all so, so stupid. New thread title?
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Jun 25, 2023 20:43
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the rat fandom posted:New thread title? We should wait until the war is over. The stupidity continues.
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Jun 25, 2023 20:45
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Wagner recruiting centers in Voronezh have reopened... https://twitter.com/Fotobiene/status/1672965689626247171?s=20
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Jun 25, 2023 20:56
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:Aren't all the Wagner guys army rejects? How do you get them to join after they just got kicked out? The Wagner core/original group are retired veterans. Then you got the convicts, including of the "murdered own grandma to steal her stuff" sorts.
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Jun 25, 2023 20:57
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Moon Slayer posted:This was all so, so stupid. If the WaPo was right, this was all planned for weeks in advance (if not months). It's planned stupidity.
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Jun 25, 2023 21:07
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Meduza analysis: https://meduza.io/en/feature/2023/06/25/putin-was-nowhere-to-be-found Worth a read, but a few highlights: quote:According to Meduza’s sources close to the Kremlin, by mid-day on June 24, Prigozhin attempted to contact the Kremlin himself. He reportedly even “tried to call Putin, but the president didn’t want to speak with him.” quote:The final round of negotiations reportedly included the Kremlin’s chief of staff Anton Vaino, the secretary of Russia’s Security Council Nikolai Patrushev, and the Russian ambassador to Belarus Boris Gryzlov — while Lukashenko took the lead role. According to one source close to the Kremlin, Prigozhin insisted that negotiations include top officials. Given Putin’s reluctance to engage with Prigozhin, negotiators were left with few options. quote:Meduza’s sources added that the rebellion weakens Putin’s position: “He was unable to get down to Prigozhin’s level, but he was nowhere to be found after yesterday’s national address. He’s the first in command, and takes control when necessary. He shouldn’t make Lukashenko the public face and allow Russia’s security officials [siloviki] to lead negotiations.”
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Jun 25, 2023 21:13
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One thing that is also to be considered is that if Shoigu is tossed out, or worse, gets killed or executed, it's a clear sign to people who align with Putin. Shoigu is one of Putin's oldest allies. Been there with him from the start. If he gets sold out, that is a harsh reminder to anyone who's actually supporting Putin that they are all very much unsafe, and reduces the chance further that any of them will step up for him. (Not that we had the impression they were there in great numbers with all of this going on)
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Jun 25, 2023 21:15
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EasilyConfused posted:Meduza analysis: Love to be the guy charged with telling Putin that sitting in Tver refusing to negotiate like a petulent toddler was going to gently caress him over even if Priggy turns around. Definitely feel safe being that particular messenger.
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Jun 25, 2023 21:22
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Shogeton posted:One thing that is also to be considered is that if Shoigu is tossed out, or worse, gets killed or executed, it's a clear sign to people who align with Putin. Shoigu is one of Putin's oldest allies. Been there with him from the start. If he gets sold out, that is a harsh reminder to anyone who's actually supporting Putin that they are all very much unsafe, and reduces the chance further that any of them will step up for him. (Not that we had the impression they were there in great numbers with all of this going on) I'm curious whether Shoigu survives being ousted. Doesn't he have his own PMC as well? I can't imagine anyone wants a repeat of yesterday but as you said he's basically Putin's oldest ally and this could easily be a case of him being "ousted" for precisely how long it takes for Prigozihn to walk out a window.
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Jun 25, 2023 21:24
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EasilyConfused posted:Meduza analysis: quote:According to Meduza’s sources close to the Kremlin, by mid-day on June 24, Prigozhin attempted to contact the Kremlin himself. He reportedly even "tried to call Putin, but the president didn’t want to speak with him." Wait, if this is true, shooting down multiple aircraft was not the point at which he thought things went too far? 
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Jun 25, 2023 21:25
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