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LanceHunter posted:All right, back on economics. From the inflation report last week, it seems like groceries are starting to get cheaper. (Egg prices, in particular, seem to be falling most steeply.) Egg prices were expected to fall a bunch. That wasn’t inflation, they killed a shitload of chickens because of bird flu last year.
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Jun 17, 2023 00:19
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e: ^^^ right, that bit. That stuff all seems kind of in-line with what would be expected, yeah? Cars trying stay expensive seems to go along with how dealers have been behaving in general around the current situation and the push to prevent direct sales, and eggs specifically had that like weird confluence of problems happen at the end of 2022 with US households consuming more eggs in general and then the bird flu stuff, on top of the impacts of covid and the war in Ukraine on supply chain.
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Jun 17, 2023 00:19
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big shtick energy posted:No one knows how high the crime rate is because there are no stats. Things like: big D&D energy from this post, great work. Have you fooled me with a SYQ or do you feel the same way as a Fox News host? FistEnergy fucked around with this message at 02:20 on Jun 17, 2023 |
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Jun 17, 2023 02:12
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ok, knock it off with all the SF crime posting and forum warrior slapfighting, I'm sure you all can duke it out elsewhere on that
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Jun 17, 2023 02:24
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Hadlock posted:Core inflation doesn't seem to be following the overall CPI inflation story though The fact that core inflation is staying so high makes me highly suspicious that the current low CPI numbers aren't going to last. I could be wrong I guess, I'm not an economist, but I am inclined to be cynical.
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Jun 17, 2023 16:08
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I arrive in this thread looking for information about reducing inflation. Wikipedia has remarkably little to say apart from 'central bank adjusts the interest rate', could someone point me in the right direction to something a little more detailed. I'm not stupid, but neither do I have a degree in economics.
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Jun 18, 2023 16:06
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Torquemada posted:I arrive in this thread looking for information about reducing inflation. Wikipedia has remarkably little to say apart from 'central bank adjusts the interest rate', could someone point me in the right direction to something a little more detailed. I'm not stupid, but neither do I have a degree in economics. It’s incredibly complex on one hand. On the other if inputs rise, companies raise prices. Generally the most expensive input is labor. When unemployment goes down the cost to hire more labor goes up (fundamental/supply demand). So generally the fed looks at the unemployment rate as the primary driver of inflation. All this assumes that all firms are price takers, that is they are forced to go the market for labor and accept the market price for labor. Lol if you believe that.
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Jun 18, 2023 17:08
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In this case labor is a driver for sure, but not the only one. Demand is also a driver, and demand curves have been really weird and hard to predict. Companies are raising pretty prices because they're greedy, but they've always been greedy. There's a very complex situation allowing that greed to not be tempered.
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Jun 18, 2023 17:58
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Torquemada posted:I arrive in this thread looking for information about reducing inflation. Wikipedia has remarkably little to say apart from 'central bank adjusts the interest rate', could someone point me in the right direction to something a little more detailed. I'm not stupid, but neither do I have a degree in economics. Well like, if everyone doesn't have enough money, you won't be able to sell anything to anyone because they're having trouble paying rent and feeding their family On the flip side if you give everyone $5 million dollars, suddenly everyone who wants a private jet and a new house with a pool and a playstation 5 can just go out and buy those things tomorrow. And there's a pretty limited supply of private jets (about 20,000 to go around for 8 billion people), new homes (about a million built annually) and Sony makes like a million PS5 a year. So prices will continue to go up until the majority of people are priced out of the market. A PS5 might go from $600 to $2000 overnight. Maybe that one guy will shell out a million bucks to go play Gran Turismo 69. Basically there's too much money to go around and not enough manufacturing capacity to meet that level of wealth and everything goes to the highest bidder. Also since everyone has $5 million they can quit their job at the PS5 and Xbox factories and just drive for Uber as an excuse to go outside Removing 3% of the global population and transferring their wealth to younger generations probably isn't helping A really easy way to "fix inflation" is to crater the job market and make a lot of people poor so they can't afford to maintain their private business jet. Suddenly 90% of planet can't afford to buy and maintain their private business jet and the cost sinks down to $4.8 million. The lowest friction way to crater the job market is to make it too expensive for marginal businesses to borrow money and force them to close, pushing up unemployment. Sometimes prices go down as a result but usually not for long
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Jun 18, 2023 19:52
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Wikipedia is nice for many things, but it’s remarkably bad with economic topics. For a long time you couldn’t edit the rent control article to say anything negative about rent control without an editor immediately jumping in with some proof from Canada that it works. Anyways, a newsletter I read has this to say on the topic. “Mainstream theory says that in order to beat inflation, you raise interest rates and tighten up budget deficits.”.
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Jun 18, 2023 20:03
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Hadlock posted:Well like, if everyone doesn't have enough money, you won't be able to sell anything to anyone because they're having trouble paying rent and feeding their family This is a pretty good analogy. When it comes to 'fixing' inflation, you need to reduce the size of the money supply, because it is the size of the money supply relative to the productive output of an economy that really defines inflation. Extremely simplistically, if the money supply is growing faster than productive output is growing, you've got inflation. The Fed messing with interest rates is how they moderate the growth of the money supply. Since money is 'created' through bank lending in our current economic system, by making it more expensive to borrow money, fewer loans are made, slowing the rate of money creation. The side effect of this, of course, is that it will slow down general economic activity as well, as loans function as a way to enable economic activity when the actor does not have liquid assets to otherwise work with. So funny enough, this could lead to situations where not only does the money supply slow its growth (through lack of loans), but productive output also slows its growth (because they couldn't get a loan to build a new factory).
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Jun 18, 2023 20:06
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Torquemada posted:I arrive in this thread looking for information about reducing inflation. Wikipedia has remarkably little to say apart from 'central bank adjusts the interest rate', could someone point me in the right direction to something a little more detailed. I'm not stupid, but neither do I have a degree in economics. this video is about as quickly you can sum up the entire topic without oversimplifying it. although it's still pretty simplified and in reality inflation is much more complicated than this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PHe0bXAIuk0
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Jun 18, 2023 23:03
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Those Ray Dalio YouTubes are incredibly well done for being produced pro bono by a billionaire who, like, just wants other people to understand capitalism. His video on “the changing world order” and “savings, debt, and spending” are quite good. While I’m at it, CGP Grey’s “rules for rulers” is the tactical version of Dalio’s strategic “the changing world order”.
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Jun 19, 2023 13:21
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Lockback posted:In this case labor is a driver for sure, but not the only one. Demand is also a driver, and demand curves have been really weird and hard to predict.  Wages are not the driving force this time, just duopolies and monopolies increasing prices because they can.
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Jun 19, 2023 13:32
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street doc posted:
That graph is laughable. Yes, let’s lump entire decades against a single decade against two decades against a three-year period. That’s obviously a normal and valid comparison!
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Jun 19, 2023 14:07
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People believe what they find useful to believe with regards to what causes inflation. Do you want more/less government spending and/or taxes? Construct your beliefs on the cause of inflation backwards from that. Don't worry, you can find a famous economist who agrees with you because economics is a hack science anyways.
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Jun 19, 2023 14:42
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street doc posted:
You graph literally says the largest contribution is employee compensation at 50% Or if the bars aren't actually growth then the Y axis makes very little sense. But each graph is equalling 100% so I assume it means "Here are the areas where we've assigned Unit Price Growth" Lockback fucked around with this message at 14:46 on Jun 19, 2023 |
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Jun 19, 2023 14:43
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https://www.politico.eu/article/us-europe-buy-american-weapons-military-industry-defense/quote:The US wants Europe to buy American weapons; the EU has other ideas Are we looking at EU arming themselves to the teeth, and doing it internally. Last time I checked about 2.5% of the GDP came from just Boeing selling arms. One fighter jet sold abroad buys a lot of 4x4 Ford F-250 super duty crew cabs that are parked in suburban driveways and walmart parking lots across the country.
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Jun 20, 2023 04:34
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EU in general is decades behind the US, and any attempt to modernize would take probably most of a decade by itself, longer than I'd be willing to bet this demand can sustain. This is, well not sabre rattling, rattling the box the sabre came in? It's making noise to get ahead of the ugliness when they cut the checks for military hardware while cutting back on social programs. They'll be some feel good stories about new small arms systems, probably some javelin clones. They aren't suddenly going to come out with F-35 competitors that are cost effective.
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Jun 20, 2023 04:43
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Lockback posted:EU in general is decades behind the US, and any attempt to modernize would take probably most of a decade by itself, longer than I'd be willing to bet this demand can sustain. This is, well not sabre rattling, rattling the box the sabre came in? It's making noise to get ahead of the ugliness when they cut the checks for military hardware while cutting back on social programs. Isn’t the f-35 billions of dollars over cost, so much they are developing a new jet?
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Jun 20, 2023 05:45
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Hadlock posted:https://www.politico.eu/article/us-europe-buy-american-weapons-military-industry-defense/ From an economics standpoint, yeah the US doesn't want Europe making their own poo poo, but on the other hand they've also kept domestic industry going along for a loooong time. Most of the European NATO countries aren't exactly flying American jets, for example, and they even make a poo poo ton of their own armor domestically. Same for ships. PGMs is where they buy a lot of American stuff, so I guess it's not good for Raytheon's bottom line if they build that out. Not to get too ColdWar/Airpower thread, but from a policy standpoint this is exactly what the US has been screaming for Europe to do for something like two decades now. No one in a policy making position is wringing their hands about this.
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Jun 20, 2023 13:25
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I dunno if the airplanes thing is really true. There are certainly domestic products (Eurofighter, Rafale) but there are a lot of NATO air forces flying F-16s and buying F-35s and if anything the combat aircraft mix is shifting more towards Buying American with the Germans, Italians, and Brits buying F-35s.
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Jun 20, 2023 15:01
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pseudanonymous posted:Isn’t the f-35 billions of dollars over cost, so much they are developing a new jet? the r&d costs exploded but in turn they got really good at sales and won many, many contracts that they weren't expected to win so, because the r&d cost is amortized over the planes, the per plane cost became really affordable so, amortized, the total cost per plane became 70 million usd, as opposed to roughly 150-250 million for the f-22 which does a different thing and is de facto not allowed to be sold outside the usa. compare to the PRC J-20, which has somewhat worse capabilities and costs them roughly 100 million usd because the PRC never sells significant military tech to anyone, so they can't defray costs that way bob dobbs is dead fucked around with this message at 17:16 on Jun 20, 2023 |
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Jun 20, 2023 17:13
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Cyrano4747 posted:Europe making their own poo poo, but ..for example, and they even make a poo poo ton of their own armor domestically. Same for ships. Otherwise fine point but ships are only slightly more difficult to manufacture than cinder blocks. You can hand (and most countries do) a bunch of teenagers a handful of arc welders, plasma cutters, gloves and welding masks, a shipload of steel, leave them for 3-4 months come back and you'll generally have a seaworthy vessel. If you run out of welding supplies you can just hot rivet them together and the end result will actually be more durable at sea. They're the opposite of precision manufacturing. Even the guns on the ship haven't changed appreciably since the end of WW2
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Jun 20, 2023 17:48
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bob dobbs is dead posted:the r&d costs exploded but in turn they got really good at sales and won many, many contracts that they weren't expected to win so, because the r&d cost is amortized over the planes, the per plane cost became really affordable you also can't buy the F-22 because they killed the program and got rid of the tooling so not even the USAF can buy them the F-35A is pretty great and if you tried as say Germany to build a F-35 equivalent you'd end up like the Japanese F-2 where depending on how you account for it the plane's flyaway cost is between 2 and 4 times more than an equivalent Block 52 F-16. Hadlock posted:Even the guns on the ship haven't changed appreciably since the end of WW2 [citation needed]
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Jun 20, 2023 18:08
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they havent changed because they dont use guns (like, gun guns, not ciws and stuff) anymore on significant ships lol they tried railguns and it didnt work very well bob dobbs is dead fucked around with this message at 18:21 on Jun 20, 2023 |
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Jun 20, 2023 18:18
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bob dobbs is dead posted:they havent changed because they dont use guns anymore on significant ships lol Even just looking at the 5 inch mk 45 it's very different from the closest WW2 approximation, the WW2 vintage 5 inch guns (the Mk21 through Mk30 were all pretty much identical with the differences being in the housing). I mean, to name the most obvious one, the modern gun can be loaded with a 20 round internal magazine feeding an automatic loader. The WW2 version was 100% manual. The new gun is also a single-piece projectile (shell and powder in a single package) while the WW2 one was two-piece ammunition (shell and separate powder that had to be loaded behind it). There's a ton of other poo poo, especially when you get into shell design, but they aren't anything like the same gun. edit: poo poo, like all military stuff that old the differences bewtween the 70s vintage Mk45 Mod0 and the modern day Mk45 Mod4 are significant. Mechanical vs. electrical fuse setting is a big one.
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Jun 20, 2023 18:27
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KYOON GRIFFEY JR posted:[citation needed] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Naval_artillery#Industrial_era_and_the_Age_of_Steamships quote:The result was HMS Dreadnought, which rendered all previous ships immediately obsolete on its launch in 1906. ... If you read through the article they had pretty much perfected the naval artillery gun in the 1890s and within 20 years pretty much built the largest versions you could bolt to a ship that wouldn't warp the hull when fired The "naval artillery ranges" table ends in 1940 Anti-aircraft guns are another story alltogether and I know even less about those edit: I wouldn't consider an autoloader to be a significant improvement but that's just me. The article linked talks about rapid fire capable guns in the 1880s but it's not fully automated
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Jun 20, 2023 18:28
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Hadlock posted:https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Naval_artillery#Industrial_era_and_the_Age_of_Steamships This is a bizarre argument. Just because they could huck a shell really far with a 16 inch gun in 1940 doesn't mean that naval gunnery in 2023 is the same as it was in 1943. Autoloaders alone are a huge, big thing. Advances in how the shells are fused, advances in aiming and tracking at distance, radar gunnery, how the guns are laid, etc. all also lead to some pretty major advances in just the basic "shoot this thing over there" part of the equation. This is like arguing airplanes haven't been improved upon since Boeing first flew the Dash 80 and more or less gave us the modern jetliner. edit: as I said before, the WW2 era 5 inch gun and the modern 5 inch gun are very, very different pieces of kit with some pretty significantly different capabilities.
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Jun 20, 2023 18:32
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The real issue is that there hasn't been a significant capital ship vs. capital ship naval engagement in decades (WWII I believe was the last time a battleship fired its main guns on another vessel) and probably won't be ever again. Carriers are useful, destroyers are useful, I believe there are cruisers whose main purpose is to launch missiles; nobody needs or uses battleships any more because you destroy enemy ships from the air or with subs (or with drones, lol russia), not by sailing near enough to them to fire guns at them. So talking about how nobody's bothered to invent a hugely better 16" gun is sort of irrelevant to modern warfare. It's also irrelevant to the thread. If we're talking about europe spending more on defense, they're not spending that on battleships. Leperflesh fucked around with this message at 19:03 on Jun 20, 2023 |
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Jun 20, 2023 18:59
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Hadlock posted:edit: I wouldn't consider an autoloader to be a significant improvement but that's just me. The article linked talks about rapid fire capable guns in the 1880s but it's not fully automated this thing: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OTO_Melara_76_mm and this thing https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3-inch/50-caliber_gun share a bore diameter and are both guns that go on boats but that's about it edit: germane to this thread, the first one is built by filthy euros and is very expensive KYOON GRIFFEY JR fucked around with this message at 19:48 on Jun 20, 2023 |
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Jun 20, 2023 19:38
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My understanding is the new US fighter jet development program isn't a F-35 replacement. Rather, the NGAD is supposed to be an upgraded F-22 that will have a big enough production run that the US can finally, finally retire every single F-15 and F-16 in the military. The F-22 was supposed to completely replace the F-15 and F-16, but they only built 187 F-22s ever for budget reasons.
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Jun 20, 2023 23:28
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Biden admin leaked the SVB bailout recipient list Friday afternoon to get ahead of Pence https://fortune.com/2023/06/23/fdic-accidentally-released-list-of-companies-it-bailed-out-silicon-valley-bank-collapse/ Headline reads differently than my take but I think mine is more accurate. The big takeaway from the article is that Sequoia got a $1 billion bailout. If you're not familiar with them they're a top 10 (top 2? 3?) silicon valley tech startup VC fund
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Jun 24, 2023 06:50
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Hadlock posted:Biden admin leaked the SVB bailout recipient list Friday afternoon to get ahead of Pence Sorry this is the history of Naval warfare thread.
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Jun 25, 2023 22:47
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Jenkl posted:Sorry this is the history of Naval warfare thread. Somebody get Teddy Roosevelt to post here !
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Jun 25, 2023 23:27
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Duckman2008 posted:Somebody get Teddy Roosevelt to post here ! Endless typos while he types on horseback / fighting poison along the Amazon river / retrieving his phone from the maw of an African lion.
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Jun 25, 2023 23:52
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Vaguely related: Harry Markowitz, Nobel-Winning Pioneer of Modern Portfolio Theory, Dies at 95 If you have to divide the entire history of finance into two periods, pre-Markowitz and post-Markowitz is probably pretty hard to beat.
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Jun 25, 2023 23:57
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Space Fish posted:Endless typos while he types on horseback / fighting poison along the Amazon river / retrieving his phone from the maw of an African lion. Lol , though not sure if you know but TR wrote a few naval history books. Here’s a quick link. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Theodore_Roosevelt_bibliography Dude was an insanely good writer , specially volume wise.
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Jun 26, 2023 00:00
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https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2023/06/26/increasing-restrictions-on-siting-solar-in-the-u-s/quote:Increasing restrictions on siting solar in the U.S. The thing I learned about my brief 14 month stint in the swamplands of the middle east coast is Nothing will grow there besides tobacco, blueberries, peanuts, southern yellow pine and with great patience, pecan trees. Anything else will freeze to death or can't handle the poor sandy I found a 6 acre tract of land in north Carolina, the plan was to buy it at $5k/acre, then plant with pecans there for tax reasons, but the real reason was to build a 1MW solar farm TL;DR the sunny weather + flat land + low low land prices, the middle Atlantic is ripe for converting to solar, as it's largely useless land, and southern yellow pine can only be harvested every ~20 years. People would live there otherwise, like they do in Texas The only significant roadblock is typically that the utilities want you you be within a quarter mile of a substation, which isn't crazy difficult you can pick them out on a map no problem. NC actually has an office setup to help people navigating the permitting process I'm honestly surprised to see Virginia with such restrictive laws. With tobacco going out of style rapidly, NC has all sorts of business tax exemptions for businesses that employ people in the tobacco trade. Without tobacco this useless land is even more worthless. Solar and other energy generation seems like a slam dunk to improve local government revenue.
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Jun 27, 2023 06:36
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That presupposes a level of good faith governance instead of regulatory capture by oil and gas interests and pandering to the culture war voting bloc. I'm not specifically familiar with energy strategy in those counties but your experience sure seems to rhyme with other gross inefficiencies we live with so that landlords, health insurers, tax lobby, car dealers, etc can get theirs.
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Jun 27, 2023 07:58
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