HonorableTB posted:

"You come at the king, you best not miss" is the lesson Prigozhin failed to internalize here. If he had just pulled the trigger all the way, he had a really good chance of succeeding. Even the US intelligence and government apparatchiks were expecting Prigozhin to roll into Moscow and do it because they considered him to have more than enough necessary support in the Russian military and state institutions to do it.

Why he didn't, and just stopped out of nowhere, is insanely puzzling. It was right there for him to take and he just, idk, chickened out I guess. The United States was fully expecting him to do it and were equally baffled

Maybe he just wanted a pay hike?

Samovar posted:

I can sympathise a bit with Godfrey's position. The U.S. has done a huge amount of terrible poo poo, and still does.

But it is undeniable that all this poo poo came about by Russia invading, and will only stop with Russia leaving. And it is undeniable that there will likely be extremely anti-Russian attitudes entrenched in Ukraine for a very, very, very long time. But Russia is the one who has done this. Putin chose to invade.

HonorableTB posted:

"You come at the king, you best not miss" is the lesson Prigozhin failed to internalize here. If he had just pulled the trigger all the way, he had a really good chance of succeeding. Even the US intelligence and government apparatchiks were expecting Prigozhin to roll into Moscow and do it because they considered him to have more than enough necessary support in the Russian military and state institutions to do it.

Why he didn't, and just stopped out of nowhere, is insanely puzzling. It was right there for him to take and he just, idk, chickened out I guess. The United States was fully expecting him to do it and were equally baffled

Maybe he just wanted a pay hike?

HonorableTB posted:

Russian soldiers are executing other Russian soldiers who expressed support for Prigozhin's coup. They're cleaning house, and filming it to broadcast across Z telegram channels.

Mokotow posted:

Say what you will, but I think this forum comes off worse for hosting a group of people thinking the imperialist invasion of Ukraine by Russia is justified.

HonorableTB posted:

"You come at the king, you best not miss" is the lesson Prigozhin failed to internalize here. If he had just pulled the trigger all the way, he had a really good chance of succeeding. Even the US intelligence and government apparatchiks were expecting Prigozhin to roll into Moscow and do it because they considered him to have more than enough necessary support in the Russian military and state institutions to do it.

Why he didn't, and just stopped out of nowhere, is insanely puzzling. It was right there for him to take and he just, idk, chickened out I guess. The United States was fully expecting him to do it and were equally baffled

EasilyConfused posted:

Where on earth are you getting all this precise information?

Mokotow posted:

Say what you will, but I think this forum comes off worse for hosting a group of people thinking the imperialist invasion of Ukraine by Russia is justified.

quote:

U.S. Suspected Prigozhin Was Preparing to Take Military Action Against Russia
The information was considered both solid and alarming because of the possibility that a major nuclear-armed rival of the United States could descend into chaos.

American intelligence officials briefed senior military and administration officials on Wednesday that Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the mercenary Wagner Group, was preparing to take military action against senior Russian defense officials, according to officials familiar with the matter.

U.S. spy agencies had indications days earlier that Mr. Prigozhin was planning something and worked to refine that material into a finished assessment, officials said.

The information shows that the United States was aware of impending events in Russia, similar to how intelligence agencies had warned in late 2021 that Vladimir V. Putin was planning to invade Ukraine.

But unlike with the initial invasion, when U.S. officials declassified the intelligence and then released it to try to deter Mr. Putin from invading, intelligence agencies kept silent about Mr. Prigozhin’s plans. U.S. officials felt that if they said anything, Mr. Putin could accuse them of orchestrating a coup. And they clearly had little interest in helping Mr. Putin avoid a major, embarrassing fracturing of his support.

In this case, the information that the long-running feud between Mr. Prigozhin, who got his start as “Putin’s chef” in St. Petersburg, and Russian defense officials was about to devolve into conflict was considered both solid and alarming. Mr. Prigozhin is known for his brutality, and had he succeeded in ousting the officials, he would likely have been an unpredictable leader. And the possibility that a major nuclear-armed rival of the United States could descend into internal chaos carried with it a new set of risks.

While it is not clear exactly when the United States first learned of the plot, intelligence officials conducted briefings on Wednesday with administration and defense officials. On Thursday, as additional confirmation of the plot came in, intelligence officials informed a narrow group of congressional leaders, according to officials familiar with the briefings who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly. By Friday night, Mr. Prigozhin had dramatically escalated his feud, launching a march on Moscow that the Russian government described as an attempted coup. On Saturday, he called his fighters off and agreed to flee to Belarus.

CNN earlier reported that the United States had briefed congressional leaders about their concerns that Mr. Prigozhin was preparing to challenge Russia’s military leadership.

For years, Mr. Prigozhin hated Sergei K. Shoigu, the minister of defense, and Gen. Valery Gerasimov, the chief of the general staff of the Russian armed forces, and the feeling was mutual, U.S. officials said. But it took the war in Ukraine, officials said earlier this year, for the animosity to spill into the open, frequently expressed by Mr. Prigozhin in ill-tempered posts on Telegram, a social media platform.

In recent months, intelligence officials have tracked the growing animosity between Mr. Prigozhin and leaders of Russia’s defense ministry and spent considerable time analyzing it.

The intelligence agencies’ conclusion was that it was a clear sign of the internal tensions caused by the war in Ukraine, a product of Russia’s struggle to supply its troops adequately.

It was an indication, one official said, of how the war was going badly for both Wagner and the regular military.

Intelligence reports released as part of the Discord leaks also showed that the United States had intercepted communications between senior Russian military leaders debating how to handle Mr. Prigozhin’s constant demands for more ammunition.

In interviews before the current crisis, U.S. officials said it was not just Wagner forces that faced supply shortages, but the entire Russian military. Those problems have plagued the Russian military for months, but American officials said earlier this week that they had become more obvious as the Ukrainian counteroffensive began.

Mr. Putin also may have given Mr. Prigozhin the false belief he could move beyond public criticism to action against his military allies. During the fight for the city of Bakhmut, the U.S. government assessed that Mr. Putin very likely ordered regular Russian units to reinforce Wagner forces.

After the capture of Bakhmut, the Russian defense ministry moved to cut down the power of Wagner. Russia forced all volunteers for its forces to sign contracts with the Ministry of Defense. The move cut Wagner off from recruits and meant that for the mercenaries to return to the battlefield in Ukraine, Mr. Prigozhin would have to subordinate his forces to the Defense Ministry, said Tatiana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Placing Wagner forces under the control of Mr. Shoigu was “out of the question” for Mr. Prigozhin, Ms. Stanovaya said.

Many of Mr. Prigozhin’s tensions with the military had played out in public. He used interviews and Telegram posts to berate Mr. Shoigu and General Gerasimov, calling them incompetent and charging that they were misleading Mr. Putin about the progress of the war with Ukraine.

American officials conceded that there was an element of theater to Mr. Prigozhin’s public complaints but that it was nevertheless useful for Mr. Putin, who himself has privately criticized his military leadership for being too passive during the Ukraine war.

Still, American officials concluded that Mr. Prigozhin’s public statements were not controlled by Mr. Putin. His fight with the ministry of defense, officials said earlier this year, was real, not political theater, fueled by the huge casualties Russia had suffered in Bakhmut.

Mr. Prigozhin’s critique went beyond an argument over needed supplies. He charged that the military leadership was corrupt and incompetent. For their part, some military leaders were jealous of his influence with Mr. Putin, American officials said earlier this year.

But it was only in recent days that intelligence officials got the initial warnings that Mr. Prigozhin might take action.

Officials said that intelligence agencies had not known what the results of Mr. Prigozhin’s actions might be, but they were immediately worried about how it might affect the control of Russia’s nuclear weapons. President Biden, speaking in October, talked of the dangers that Mr. Putin would pose if he felt cornered and said the United States was looking for “off ramps” for Mr. Putin.

Since Mr. Prigozhin took action on Friday, American officials have been locked down, saying little publicly about his intentions or what they knew about events on the ground. Officials have been wary, both because events were moving fast and because they did not want to give Mr. Putin any excuse to blame the West for Mr. Prigozhin’s actions. But several officials said they fully expected that Mr. Putin would eventually say the uprising was the result of a foreign plot.

Mr. Prigozhin is under indictment in the United States for his role in trying to influence the 2016 presidential election in favor of Donald J. Trump.

HonorableTB posted:

"You come at the king, you best not miss" is the lesson Prigozhin failed to internalize here. If he had just pulled the trigger all the way, he had a really good chance of succeeding. Even the US intelligence and government apparatchiks were expecting Prigozhin to roll into Moscow and do it because they considered him to have more than enough necessary support in the Russian military and state institutions to do it.

Why he didn't, and just stopped out of nowhere, is insanely puzzling. It was right there for him to take and he just, idk, chickened out I guess. The United States was fully expecting him to do it and were equally baffled

HonorableTB posted:

Front page of CNN

HonorableTB posted:

"You come at the king, you best not miss" is the lesson Prigozhin failed to internalize here. If he had just pulled the trigger all the way, he had a really good chance of succeeding. Even the US intelligence and government apparatchiks were expecting Prigozhin to roll into Moscow and do it because they considered him to have more than enough necessary support in the Russian military and state institutions to do it.

Why he didn't, and just stopped out of nowhere, is insanely puzzling. It was right there for him to take and he just, idk, chickened out I guess. The United States was fully expecting him to do it and were equally baffled

EasilyConfused posted:

Unless those linked articles say more, that's very different than:

EasilyConfused posted:

Unless those linked articles say more, that's very different than:

quote:

An ex-CIA analyst has claimed Vladimir Putin 'orchestrated' the coup with Wagner mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhi in a 'classic false flag' to try to make the West believe his army had weakened.

Rebekah Koffler told Fox News' Eric Shawn on Saturday the coup was staged as a way for the Russian leader to boost his political power and he will eventually 'gain momentum, mobilize additional personnel, and re-energize his offensive on Ukraine.'

Prigozhin's forces moved from their camps in Ukraine into Russia on Friday and took over a regional military command in the southern city of Rostov-on-Don, before advancing toward Moscow.

Just as suddenly, the advance was called off on Saturday, and Russian state media said the Wagner troops would return to Ukraine while Prigozhin would flee to neighboring Belarus.

'So again, what has changed from this in the last few hours? All of a sudden he decided to turn his troops around and made this deal? No, this is all staged,' Koffler said, adding that Putin wants us to believe he is weak.

'Putin wants us to believe that he's weak, that there's an ongoing threat of a military insurrection,' Koffler claimed.

While Koffler's credentials are bona fide, it's unclear why Putin would let it go so far.

She continued: 'So this is a pretext to declare martial law, which Putin has already done. He made an amendment today that anybody who is violating the martial law is going to be imprisoned for 30 days. Another very interesting and revealing point is that Putin just authorized that men with a criminal record can join the military.'

'So this is a justification for extra mobilization of the Russian forces to send them to the meat grinder in Ukraine. It is also to demonstrate to President Biden that, no, Russia is not a threat. Russia is actually, you know, involved in its own domestic turmoil. But this is all a classic distraction and classic Putin,' she said.

'Prigozhin is not a stupid man. He's a highly intelligent formerly convict. He turned his life around from a prisoner to a hot dog stands owner to the owner of a multi-million catering business that served the Kremlin, including Putin himself.'

The Kremlin faces a 'deeply unstable' situation after the Wagner rebellion 'exposed the regime's weakness', analysts have warned.

Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) allege the 'short-term fix' of an apparent truce with the Wagner Group will likely 'substantially damage' Putin's government and war efforts, claiming it demonstrated security weaknesses and the 'inability' to repel internal threats quickly.

It comes as Putin's longtime ally Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov slammed Prigozhin's 'arrogance', claiming his actions could lead to 'dangerous consequences'.

Wagner fighters were leaving Russia's southern Voronezh region Sunday, the local governor said, after the group halted a dramatic rebellion to bring down Russia's top brass and U-turned on a march to Moscow.

'The movement of Wagner units through the Voronezh region is ending,' Voronezh governor Alexander Gusev said.

'It is running normally and without incidents,' Gusev added, saying travel restrictions imposed during Saturday's operation against the mutiny will be lifted once 'the situation is finally resolved.'

ISW analysts allege the apparent truce with Wagner forces is a 'short-term fix, not a long-term solution'.

They argued: 'The rebellion exposed the weakness of the Russian security forces and demonstrated Putin's inability to use his forces in a timely manner to repel an internal threat and further eroded his monopoly on force.

US spy agencies picked up signs days ago that Prigozhin was preparing to rise up against Russia's defense establishment, American media reported on Saturday.

Intelligence officials conducted briefings at the White House, the Pentagon and on Capitol Hill about the potential for unrest in nuclear-armed Russia a full day before it unfolded, according to the Washington Post and New York Times.

Spy agencies first began tracking indications that Prigozhin and his Wagner mercenary force intended to move against the Russian military leadership in mid-June, the Post said.

The Times said the information was both solid and alarming by mid-week, leading to the flurry of briefings.

In an uprising that played out with dizzying speed, Prigozhin's forces moved into Russia on Friday and took over a regional military command in Rostov-on-Don.

The advance was called off on Saturday, with Russian state media reporting that Wagner troops would return to Ukraine while Prigozhin would flee to Belarus.

The Kremlin said it would not prosecute Prigozhin or the armed members of the Wagner group.

As US intelligence officials pinned down information that Prigozhin was preparing military action, they grew concerned about chaos in a country with a powerful nuclear arsenal, the Times reported.

US spy agencies believe that Putin himself was informed that Prigozhin, once a close ally, was plotting his rebellion at least a day before it occurred, the Post reported.

Prigozhin will go to Belarus and will not face charges after calling off his troops' advance on Moscow, the Russian government said, easing the country's most serious security crisis in decades.

The feud between Prigozhin and Russia's military brass came to a violent head in the past day, with his forces capturing a key army headquarters in southern Russia on Saturday and then heading north to threaten the capital.

Within hours of Prigozhin's about-face, the Kremlin announced he would leave for Belarus and Russia would not prosecute him or Wagner's members.

It had been a dramatic day, with President Vladimir Putin warning against civil war, Moscow telling locals to stay off the streets and Kyiv reveling in the chaos engulfing its enemy.

The tide shifted suddenly when Prigozhin made the stunning announcement that his troops were 'turning our columns around and going back to field camps' to avoid bloodshed in the Russian capital.

Prigozhin, who has feuded bitterly with Moscow's military leadership even as his outfit led parts of Russia's Ukraine offensive, said he understood the importance of the moment and did not want to 'spill Russian blood'.

The Glumslinger posted:

My guess is that he never actually wanted to overthrow Putin, he probably just wanted to push in a little bit until there was an actual standoff with the military and then push for his demands during a tense negotiation or have Putin panic and give into his demands.

When Putin didn't give in and he actually had a clear shot to Moscow, he suddenly became the dog who caught the car. He didn't actually want to become Czar/President, he just wanted to make quick power play and realign himself vs his rivals in the MOD. He didn't actually have plans for taking and securing Moscow or taking over civilian government, so he freaked out when that looked like the outcome of continuing his march.

That's also why he basically took the first out he got, even though he didn't meet any resistance. He wasn't trying to start a civil war which would have happened if he had driven to Moscow, he just wanted to keep the status quo of his personal mercenary company.

HonorableTB posted:

It's entirely possible I just came to the wrong conclusion from reading that, it has happened before. I'll retract that statement until something more concrete comes out

In other news the Daily Mail has a good LOL:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12231599/Ex-CIA-analyst-claims-Putin-orchestrated-Wagner-coup-Prigozhin-classic-false-flag.html

The Wagner coup was a false flag and this makes Putin stronger than ever!!

mobby_6kl posted:

Look, if you consider a spherical communism in a vacuum...

Detective Thompson posted:

Chef Boyar P

the popes toes posted:

the popes toes posted:

The photos that have just been released of a search of his office are mildly damning so it's clear they're going to screw him

Herstory Begins Now posted:

there's videos from as far back as late april showing prigozhin discussing the possibility of rolling up to moscow with war correspondents

i believe that post is referencing a wapo article on this as well

paul_soccer12 posted:

source?

zone posted:

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1673064341459939329
Terrorist Strelkov wants monke out of power over the mess that happened. Guess he really doesn't give a poo poo any more about directly criticizing the big, well, now not so big, man.

Detective Thompson posted:

Chef Boyar P

Detective Thompson posted:

Chef Boyar P

WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:

I think there should be some sort of 'provisional' government that forms to help Putin transition.