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Snipee posted:This actually makes sense. But Prigozhin definitely ended by playing himself by accidentally exposing Putin’s weakness, and I have yet to read anything explaining what leverage he has left after abandoning his march to Moscow. He can’t be so stupid that he actually thinks Putin will let him live after that. I don't know. How loyal are his wagnerites in Africa to him? He controls a lot of money/power for Putin that way, I guess?
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Jun 25, 2023 21:29
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Nephthys posted:I'm curious whether Shoigu survives being ousted. Doesn't he have his own PMC as well? I can't imagine anyone wants a repeat of yesterday but as you said he's basically Putin's oldest ally and this could easily be a case of him being "ousted" for precisely how long it takes for Prigozihn to walk out a window. He has no base of power other than Putin, so if Putin decides to get rid of him it's not likely to be more dramatic than a retirement.
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Jun 25, 2023 21:32
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Shogeton posted:One thing that is also to be considered is that if Shoigu is tossed out, or worse, gets killed or executed, it's a clear sign to people who align with Putin. Shoigu is one of Putin's oldest allies. Been there with him from the start. If he gets sold out, that is a harsh reminder to anyone who's actually supporting Putin that they are all very much unsafe, and reduces the chance further that any of them will step up for him. (Not that we had the impression they were there in great numbers with all of this going on) He could do some sort of sideways move with Shoigu --- something prestigious that's not defense.
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Jun 25, 2023 21:40
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:How big is Wagner exactly? It's uncertain, at least in the OSINT community. Michael Koffman thinks Prigozhin's claims of 25,000 are probably over-stated. On a related note, he had an interesting point that Putin, Shoigu, and crew seem to be in a position where they should have foreseen this. Western analysts have been calling it for weeks (even OSINT people like Thomas Theiner). The issue isn't that Putin and crew did things to drive Prigozhin to mutiny; the issue is that they didn't have anything in place to deal with it. Koffman points out that this is typical of all of their planning. They plan to get Kyiv in 3 days, but have no contingency if it takes longer. They do a bunch of things to guarantee Western sanctions, but have no plan in place to handle that. (In the event, it was only the thoroughly competent and excellent response by the central bank that's kept their economy alive.) This is just another example of, "Russian leaders do a thing with foreseeable outcomes, and do nothing to prepare for those outcomes."
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Jun 25, 2023 21:45
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Nephthys posted:I'm curious whether Shoigu survives being ousted. Doesn't he have his own PMC as well? Having your own PMC means jack poo poo if you cannot inspire personal loyalty. When Prigozhin did his glory ride, at least several thousands of his underlings followed him, despite the proper authorities promising them amnesty if they'd stop. This would absolutely not happen with Shoigu's "PMC".
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Jun 25, 2023 21:49
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RockWhisperer posted:Wait, if this is true, shooting down multiple aircraft was not the point at which he thought things went too far? The aircraft were sent by his enemies in the MoD, not his good friend Putin. It's not just Putin who's been believing his own propaganda for far too long. Everyone with some a serious amount of power in Russia seems to believe their own (wildly differing) versions of reality, somehow.
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Jun 25, 2023 21:54
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Shogeton posted:One thing that is also to be considered is that if Shoigu is tossed out, or worse, gets killed or executed, it's a clear sign to people who align with Putin. Shoigu is one of Putin's oldest allies. Been there with him from the start. If he gets sold out, that is a harsh reminder to anyone who's actually supporting Putin that they are all very much unsafe, and reduces the chance further that any of them will step up for him. (Not that we had the impression they were there in great numbers with all of this going on) https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1673072309668544513 Seems like this could be happening. This is looking worse and worse for Putin Also a throwback to the Ukrainian counter offensive in Kharkiv, the Russians are now begging for airstrikes against the UA foothold near Kherson using Telegram since they can't get them via the chain of command https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1673072580104798213 Chalks fucked around with this message at 22:09 on Jun 25, 2023 |
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Jun 25, 2023 22:05
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Prigozhin was clearly in a position where he thought he was about to be eliminated not just fired, otherwise I doubt he would done something to be called a massive traitor by little P man.
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Jun 25, 2023 22:05
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i can not remotely overstate how much skepticism i would treat anything coming out of VCHK-OGPU telegram channel with
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Jun 25, 2023 22:19
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Herstory Begins Now posted:i can not remotely overstate how much skepticism i would treat anything coming out of VCHK-OGPU telegram channel with But Gerashenko has the blue tick so he's trustworthy? 
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Jun 25, 2023 22:28
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Nenonen posted:But Gerashenko has the blue tick so he's trustworthy? He's in the Ukrainian government so I guess he's not too worried about spreading damaging rumours about Russia. That said I have no idea what the cited telegram channel is.
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Jun 25, 2023 22:33
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Chalks posted:He's in the Ukrainian government so I guess he's not too worried about spreading damaging rumours about Russia. That said I have no idea what the cited telegram channel is. It is an extremely unreliable channel that mostly posts paid hit pieces when someone in Russian cop community needs to air dirty laundry on competition. Past days it was clear that they got paid for the weekend by Prigozhin-aligned media. Gerashenko just posts rumours and garbage 24/7 fatherboxx fucked around with this message at 22:49 on Jun 25, 2023 |
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Jun 25, 2023 22:45
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fatherboxx posted:It is an extremely unreliable channel that mostly posts paid hit pieces when someone in Russian cop community needs to air dirty laundry on competition. Man I dunno how people keep track of this stuff, sorry if this is too unreliable a rumour. It ended up on my list when it was retweeted by Michael Weiss and I usually consider him to be pretty good.
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Jun 25, 2023 22:50
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^ this tends to happen with conflicts. I've noticed a bunch of people who had much higher standards 12 months ago have really slipped in the quality of information they're spreading in the last 6 months. i assume it's a mix of following things less closely and to some extent people becoming either more mired in ideological bubbles or more actively partisan wrt information spaces, but the end result is lots of garbage getting boosted. does seem to happen in every conflict after the initial rush of interest starts wearing out
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Jun 25, 2023 22:54
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Herstory Begins Now posted:^ this tends to happen with conflicts. I've noticed a bunch of people who had much higher standards 12 months ago have really slipped in the quality of information they're spreading in the last 6 months. i assume it's a mix of following things less closely and to some extent people becoming either more mired in ideological bubbles or more actively partisan wrt information spaces, but the end result is lots of garbage getting boosted. does seem to happen in every conflict after the initial rush of interest starts wearing out not to mention no one wants to post the old boring "there simply are not reliable sources that can give us a good idea of whats going on right now"
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Jun 25, 2023 23:57
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A big flaming stink posted:not to mention no one wants to post the old boring "there simply are not reliable sources that can give us a good idea of whats going on right now" I have always found the bigger media producers with a long docket of other items are willing to do that like the BBC's Newshour.
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Jun 26, 2023 00:25
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A big flaming stink posted:not to mention no one wants to post the old boring "there simply are not reliable sources that can give us a good idea of whats going on right now" idk that's probably one of the single most repeated lines i've seen over the last 2 days. i think it's more that some people just get lazy and stop vetting sources
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Jun 26, 2023 00:27
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Just noticed the “In Moscows Shadow” podcast has a new episode up about the mutiny. Haven’t listened yet.
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Jun 26, 2023 00:32
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Boris Galerkin posted:Just noticed the “In Moscows Shadow” podcast has a new episode up about the mutiny. Haven’t listened yet. Wasn't aware of that podcast, but that guy has a good background. I'll check it out soon. I see he has some interesting book titles too. I'm looking for the next book after I finish one of Tim Snyder's books.
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Jun 26, 2023 00:59
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It’s a podcast of varying length but always has reassuringly low production values.
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Jun 26, 2023 01:01
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RockWhisperer posted:Wasn't aware of that podcast, but that guy has a good background. I'll check it out soon. I see he has some interesting book titles too. I'm looking for the next book after I finish one of Tim Snyder's books. Awesome, cool. I heard about the podcast here ITT from someone else. https://inmoscowsshadows.wordpress.com/
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Jun 26, 2023 01:03
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It's been a crazy month watching an overconfident rear end in a top hat just launch and dive in and then just when you think he's gonna make it all the way he just completely implodes and leaves everyone absolutely confused and trying to figure out what's going on. Also the submersible thing was crazy too
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Jun 26, 2023 01:46
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Atreiden posted:pretty wild claims in this tweet per Galuga net. My impression is Gerashenko is a bit of a sensationalist, but I don't know how trustworthy Galuga net is. Gulagu.net is one step removed from the racecar driver. Gerashchenko is barely more credible than the racecar driver by now. Treat this as disinfo aimed at provoking Putin into an excessive purging spree. Moon Slayer posted:This was all so, so stupid. "What did we learn, Peskov?" Shogeton posted:Shoigu is one of Putin's oldest allies. Been there with him from the start. No. Shoigu is one of the few people in Putin's inner circle who hasn't been with him since the Petersburg days.
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Jun 26, 2023 02:24
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I thought Shoigu was with Putin in the St Petersburg days. I could swear I heard that in The Russia Contingency at some point.
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Jun 26, 2023 02:43
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Summarizing Political Scientist Mark Galeotti's podcast analysis from In Moscow's Shadows: 1. This was perhaps the best outcome of what amounts to an intelligence failure. FSB's job was to stop a coup exactly like this. This falls in line with their failure in preserving Yanukovych's political survival and securing reliable informants in Ukraine, so they look bad. It is an embarrassment that western intelligence was supposedly aware this possibility. 2. Prig might have stopped at realizing he hadn't the support to take on Moscow (references Napoleon getting waited out in Moscow) or for some reason it dawned on him that Moscow was not a part of his objective. No commitment to either theory. 3. Domestic response was akin to first day of the 1991 August coup whereby people called in sick to avoid being associated with either side. Hence the police response. 4. Localized force differences prevented any efforts to repel at checkpoints and the command structure might have been too slow to respond and give orders. 5. Questionable on whether Prig would be allowed by Putin to continue running a paramilitary force out of Minsk. His survival makes him an existential threat and he might be given a grace period before being ganked. 6. Shoigu and Gerasimov's position might not be in peril. 7. Zolotov's lack prompt public communication was egregious. 8. Putin's control of the internal security apparatus is not secure. I know this might seem like a "duh" statement, but there's a contingent of people who think Putin gained from this for some reason. 9. Watch and see if Putin relegates Kadyrov for his slow response. Kadyrov was boisterous about defending the regime prior to the coup, so his response should have been sooner. Edit: 10. Putin's dependence upon Luka to get out of jail might have illustrated a lack of other options at Putin's disposal. RockWhisperer fucked around with this message at 02:57 on Jun 26, 2023 |
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Jun 26, 2023 02:54
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kadyrov's response was slow and frankly half assed. his vaunted column in the south was 7 or 8 btrs and a bunch of trucks. which might as well be a butter knife for all the good it would do against a force with tanks
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Jun 26, 2023 03:00
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Herstory Begins Now posted:kadyrov's response was slow and frankly half assed. his vaunted column in the south was 7 or 8 btrs and a bunch of trucks. which might as well be a butter knife for all the good it would do against a force with tanks I asked about Kadyrov very early on because he was MIA. His absence was noticeable and getting stuck in traffic was comical stalling in my opinion.
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Jun 26, 2023 03:04
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Staluigi posted:It's been a crazy month watching an overconfident rear end in a top hat just launch and dive in and then just when you think he's gonna make it all the way he just completely implodes and leaves everyone absolutely confused and trying to figure out what's going on. Also the submersible thing was crazy too I think he expected or hoped there would be a lot more support from the army or national guard. When that didn't materialize there really wasn't a choice but to give up. It's not clear exactly how many men Wagner was taking to Moscow but even if it was 10k that's not at all enough to take the city quickly. There was some national guard forces and a lot of Rosgvardia in Moscow. Wagner might have been able to defeat them in isolation but there's no way to do it quickly. Urban combat necesarrily requires time and a steady flow of supplies and Wagner had neither. Every hour spent shooting at riot cops blocking roads in the suburbs sees more troops arriving to bolster defense while Wagner depletes men and supplies. Prigozhin gambled that the army would support him to get rid of the corrupt generals that have been tormenting them and hoped he could roll unopposed into Red Square. It became clear that there was insufficient support and there would be active resistance in Moscow. Prighozin knew he couldn't win so he quit and left the chat. I mean I guess it kinda seems weird that he just randomly stopped before encountering any real resistance but if anyone understands the difficulty og urban combat and the logistical requirements to take a city it's that particular pissgobling. It was a super high stakes gamble but to his credit he had enough awareness to read the situation and stop when there was no realistic chance of succes.
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Jun 26, 2023 03:11
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RockWhisperer posted:I asked about Kadyrov very early on because he was MIA. His absence was noticeable and getting stuck in traffic was comical stalling in my opinion. Military column getting stuck in civilian traffic as it approaches an area of unexpected fighting via roads is like the least surprising thing. Still funny though.
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Jun 26, 2023 03:12
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EasilyConfused posted:That's conflating "standing aside" and "flipping." It's one thing not to resist, it's another thing to actively join. AFAIK there's no evidence of any MoD units joining in. If you don't resist rebels and they take the capital, you're accepting they're the new boss.
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Jun 26, 2023 03:21
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I maintain he should be called the Late Lord Kadyrov.
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Jun 26, 2023 03:21
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WarpedLichen posted:Even if Prigozhin was able to take Moscow, I don't think he would be able to cobble together a functional government. Like once push comes to shove and he actually has to make a military junta, I don't think that survives over a week. He would need enough career bureaucrats coming to his faction and I'm not sure he has enough pull in that area. I am not at all surprised that Prigozhin took an off ramp asap that matched his public demands. Does he have a domestic policy that he wants to immediately enact? Just have the bureaucrats keep coming in and stamping papers as they usually do.
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Jun 26, 2023 03:24
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Staluigi posted:It's been a crazy month My friend, all of that happened in one week.
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Jun 26, 2023 03:24
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It was a wild year. Just an absolutely bonkers decade
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Jun 26, 2023 03:26
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Ynglaur posted:I maintain he should be called the Late Lord Kadyrov. his signature thing is showing up as effectively the signal that whatever going on has fully ended
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Jun 26, 2023 03:27
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It's been confirmed that it was a Il-22M airborne command post that was shot down yesterday. Apparently one of 5 that was still flying, upgrade 3 years ago to the tune of 310 million rubles. Crew complement is believed to be 10 airmen, usually specialists and usually someone from high command coordinating things. Any of these things aren't things that can be missed. https://twitter.com/vcdgf555/status/1673051001300094976?s=20 It would be something if Shoigu or Gerasimov was on board and the reason no one has seen or heard from one them is that they're dead.
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Jun 26, 2023 03:45
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RockWhisperer posted:10. Putin's dependence upon Luka to get out of jail might have illustrated a lack of other options at Putin's disposal. Sort of--rumor is that Prigo insisted on talking to someone at the top and Putin didn't want to take the call himself for petty personal reasons, so Luka's value was solely as a sufficiently prestigious proxy for Putin.
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Jun 26, 2023 04:19
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Ynglaur posted:It's uncertain, at least in the OSINT community. Michael Koffman thinks Prigozhin's claims of 25,000 are probably over-stated. I'm not sure if I have the same perspective, to me it seems like a general leadership failure. Putin is in the manager role where he shouldn't have delegated some of these decisions to his subordinates. He's like that manager who wants everyone to get along, if there's conflict just to figure it out but not the way Prigozhin had in mind!
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Jun 26, 2023 04:45
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I don't understand why an airborne command post was within SAM range of rebel troops at all, but... Russia
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Jun 26, 2023 05:05
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FuturePastNow posted:I don't understand why an airborne command post was within SAM range of rebel troops at all, but... Russia Honestly? They probably had no idea they had any Anti Air outside of maybe some manpads at all. It certainly proves that the Russian military and intelligence community are at the very least not sharing relevant intel. I’d venture to say they are incompetent entirely. Honestly I am just waiting for someone to just roll up on Moscow now.
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Jun 26, 2023 05:26
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