(Thread IKs:
fatherboxx)
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Djarum posted:Honestly? They probably had no idea they had any Anti Air outside of maybe some manpads at all.
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Jun 26, 2023 05:32
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FuturePastNow posted:I don't understand why an airborne command post was within SAM range of rebel troops at all, but... Russia They made a similar mistake in the Georgian war as well. RIA Novosti is now reporting that Shoigu has visited front troops in Ukraine today, so either he's alive or at least some of his body doubles are 
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Jun 26, 2023 07:17
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I assumed Kadyrov was holding off in case this turned out to be the real deal, and wanted to make sure he picked the winner E; Relatedly I have to assume there are some very relieved rebels about the place who are deeply glad they couldn't get plans going before Prig backed down. Imagine you think this is it, Moscow is about to be a warzone, Putin is in the wind, the military is either defecting or standing down, so you issue the go order for the great revolt you've spent years preparing for... and then you hear Big P is turning his men around and moving to Belarus Ms Adequate fucked around with this message at 07:23 on Jun 26, 2023 |
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Jun 26, 2023 07:20
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Ms Adequate posted:I assumed Kadyrov was holding off in case this turned out to be the real deal, and wanted to make sure he picked the winner This is absolutely what he was doing. He doesn’t care for Russia proper, he is first and foremost a Chechen leader. If it looked like Putin was going to fall, there’s no doubt he would use that opportunity to boycott any obligations.
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Jun 26, 2023 07:25
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RockWhisperer posted:3. Domestic response was akin to first day of the 1991 August coup whereby people called in sick to avoid being associated with either side. Hence the police response. Calling in sick to avoid being part of a coup ( at least by association) is hilarious to me. I had no idea that this happened.
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Jun 26, 2023 07:38
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Nenonen posted:They made a similar mistake in the Georgian war as well. Or it's canned undated footage
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Jun 26, 2023 07:49
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is the mobile command post the thing they only had like 6 of, and a drone took another down last month, or was that something else
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Jun 26, 2023 08:11
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Meow Tse-tung posted:is the mobile command post the thing they only had like 6 of, and a drone took another down last month, or was that something else That was an AWACs radar plane.
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Jun 26, 2023 08:15
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If it was so obvious that Prig didn’t have support to actually go all the way to Moscow even with no resistance up to where he got, why did Putin balk and skip town for a sec? To me that says that Putin either A) is getting worse intel than previous accounts or B) he believes his situation is precarious. Neither of those is good for him even if he technically “won” on the surface of this.
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Jun 26, 2023 08:56
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whydirt posted:If it was so obvious that Prig didn’t have support to actually go all the way to Moscow even with no resistance up to where he got, why did Putin balk and skip town for a sec? One of the earliest events the Internet Research Agency was involved in was a social media campaign that used sockpuppets to create the impression that a large chemical plant in Texas had exploded (2014, i think). It had not exploded, but social media chatter successfully duped mainstream network news to report it. Now, a similar campaign could have happened during this March toward Moscow. Seems likely, even. It could have aimed to decieve western media, or Russian leadership, or enlisted Russian soldiers, or...
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Jun 26, 2023 09:04
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https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1673195607148707842?t=4BvWVlPJESiuPUJFA5GHHw&s=19 In any event in your life, just sternly watch through a window https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1673235044540854272?t=54xB8BlCNWo_bO847l0_VQ&s=19 Also, things are still crazy, apparently
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Jun 26, 2023 09:05
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RockWhisperer posted:Yeah, the lull in development is giving oxygen to some wild speculation (I'm guilty of speculation too but less grand stuff imo). I'm sticking to reading from my favorite sources since the war began now. *MEP as polish politicians go, he's pretty astute and is relatively likely to have his finger on the pulse of things, but it's still basically punditry
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Jun 26, 2023 09:07
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whydirt posted:If it was so obvious that Prig didn’t have support to actually go all the way to Moscow even with no resistance up to where he got, why did Putin balk and skip town for a sec? It is not clear Putin actually left. His plane did, but i imagine sometimes his plane can go elsewhere without him on it, as it’s not like it is his only means of escape - and if he actually was fleeing a conquering rebel army I imagine he wouldn’t want to be in his regular plane with its transponder on. It’s bad for Putin yeah, but a lot of things that "definitely happened" are still just rumors, like him leaving town or the bridges near Moscow on the M4 that were supposedly blown up, but which don’t show up as affecting traffic on Google Maps and which don’t have any clear photos.
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Jun 26, 2023 09:09
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I'm relatively up to date on what's happening in Ukraine, but everything I'm seeing is the attempted insurrection by Wagner is very bad for him. Meaning bad for Putin politically, or bad for his chances in Ukraine? If the former, are there any early best guesses at who is next in line, or what even happens? My knowledge of Russian politics is basically: Putin, who's held onto power for more than 20 years. Medvedev, who is a strong ally of Putin and basically stepped in to lead when Putin couldn't for legal reasons. Navalny, who is in prison. I understand that there are a lot of people at various 3 letter agencies and the US State Department working around the clock, just wondering if there's been any reporting on it thus far.
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Jun 26, 2023 09:18
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Shooting Blanks posted:If the former, are there any early best guesses at who is next in line, or what even happens? Legally, in any event of Putin going away, it is prime minister Mikhail Mishustin. After that, it is pure speculation and would heavily depend on the events unfolding. So far, Mishustin and Sergey Sobyanin, mayor of Moscow, have been the wishcasted dove choices because both have been trying to present themselves as smart, professional people for the past year.
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Jun 26, 2023 09:25
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Saladman posted:It is not clear Putin actually left. His plane did, but i imagine sometimes his plane can go elsewhere without him on it actually, little known fact, it's powered by his mutant abilities fatherboxx posted:Legally, in any event of Putin going away, it is prime minister Mikhail Mishustin. After that, it is pure speculation and would heavily depend on the events unfolding. So far, Mishustin and Sergey Sobyanin, mayor of Moscow, have been the wishcasted dove choices because both have been trying to present themselves as smart, professional people for the past year. is mishustin the Most Boring Man In Russia, ie a competent technocrat with no discernable power base, or am i getting my putin left hand men mixed up? Goatse James Bond fucked around with this message at 09:32 on Jun 26, 2023 |
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Jun 26, 2023 09:28
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fatherboxx posted:Also, things are still crazy, apparently At this point I’m not ruling out that Prig will turn around and go back to Moscow for a second time, if Putin backtracks his decison to let Wagner off the hook.
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Jun 26, 2023 09:29
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Shooting Blanks posted:I'm relatively up to date on what's happening in Ukraine, but everything I'm seeing is the attempted insurrection by Wagner is very bad for him. Meaning bad for Putin politically, or bad for his chances in Ukraine? Are there any scenarios where having a military rebellion is good To be less flippant, there was nothing protecting Moscow aside from beefed up police that would get rolled. This will likely mean that Putin needs to pull troops from the from to protect Moscow and another potential coup attempt quote:If the former, are there any early best guesses at who is next in line, or what even happens? He's a deranged grandpa that surrounded himself by morons, the only person that's competent might come through a military/secret service rebellion quote:https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1673235044540854272?t=54xB8BlCNWo_bO847l0_VQ&s=19 Lol can't wait for the "Napoleon coming back" headlines that turn more and more positive every day when he's on march to Moscow number 2 Somaen fucked around with this message at 09:50 on Jun 26, 2023 |
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Jun 26, 2023 09:29
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Google Jeb Bush posted:is mishustin the Most Boring Man In Russia, ie a competent technocrat with no discernable power base, or am i getting my putin left hand men mixed up Yep, former head of Tax service
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Jun 26, 2023 09:32
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Probably the best assessment I have heard regarding events of the past few days. https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/geopolitics-decanted-by-silverado/id1614010500 Dmitri presses the point that it was a mutiny, not coup. Prigozhin had no intention of overthrowing or replacing Putin, and that saving Wagner (and himself) was the goal. He says Putin was forced to make a deal with Prigozhin mainly because the Russian Army was either unwilling or unable to stop him, and letting Wagner roll on through Moscow was not something Putin was willing to let happen.
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Jun 26, 2023 10:11
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whydirt posted:If it was so obvious that Prig didn’t have support to actually go all the way to Moscow even with no resistance up to where he got, why did Putin balk and skip town for a sec? Let's not forget above everything it makes him a coward. If you're the leader of a nation and you're not willing to die in the defense of it, you have no right to ask other people to lay down their lives for it either. But I guess that's more philosophical than anything relevant. This probably doesn't matter much, but to anyone high up it definitely says all you need to know about him. Nelson Mandingo fucked around with this message at 10:22 on Jun 26, 2023 |
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Jun 26, 2023 10:18
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whydirt posted:If it was so obvious that Prig didn’t have support to actually go all the way to Moscow even with no resistance up to where he got, why did Putin balk and skip town for a sec? The question of whether or not Prigozhin could take Moscow is something I'm unsure of myself (if units stood aside and let him pass, like they had been doing up to that point, who the hell knows), but I do feel it's pretty certain that Prigozhin doesn't have the inherent support, legitimacy, administrative backing, and loyal security services necessary to take over and rule as Supreme Leader of Russia. Yes, he could shoot Putin off the throne, but then what? How many knives would be waiting to sink into his back now that he proved it's possible? Without Putin's developed connections in his the security services, how could he ensure the loyalty of the power players of Russia? Hell, for that matter, how would he ensure that the security services won't be the ones to stab him in the back? Meanwhile all of Russia would be extremely aware that he wasn't elected to his post, but took it through raw, open violence. They might have tolerated Putin - would they tolerate Prigozhin? Especially because his rhetoric was that he was here to purge the corruption in the Ministry of Defense so they could fight the Ukrainian war right. Do you think Prigozhin is actually capable of turning the situation in Ukraine around? What happens when he fails to do so in a timely fashion? So long term the odds of him surviving a stint as Ruler of Russia are pretty bleak. But short-term, if Prigozhin is barreling down on your capital at top speed and yelling rhetoric about changing presidents, are you willing to gamble that he isn't an overambitious idiot with eyes bigger than his stomach? Even if Prigozhin takes over and promptly crashes and burns as ruler of Russia, that's still cold comfort for Putin in his grave.
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Jun 26, 2023 10:24
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Someone was interested in how pundits would react to Prigozhin's half-coup. Here's Simonian with some thoughts on why charges against him should be dropped.quote:Legal rules are not the Commandments of Christ or the Tablets of Moses. They are written by people to protect law and order and stability in the country. And if in some exceptional critical cases it turns out that they stop fulfilling their function and perform the opposite function, they can bog off.
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Jun 26, 2023 10:26
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Dick Ripple posted:Probably the best assessment I have heard regarding events of the past few days. https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/geopolitics-decanted-by-silverado/id1614010500 Can anyone else comment on whether this podcast/person is worth listening to? Not calling you out OP just wanted another opinion.
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Jun 26, 2023 11:12
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Boris Galerkin posted:Can anyone else comment on whether this podcast/person is worth listening to? Not calling you out OP just wanted another opinion. haven't listened to the podcast but am familiar with his role in things over the last 20 years and he's not at all some rando. he gets really, really good guests on that podcast
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Jun 26, 2023 11:25
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Geopolitics Decanted is fairly credible, just very US MIC adjacent.
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Jun 26, 2023 11:26
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Boris Galerkin posted:Can anyone else comment on whether this podcast/person is worth listening to? Not calling you out OP just wanted another opinion. Geopolitics Decanted is cool and good.
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Jun 26, 2023 11:26
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Dick Ripple posted:Dmitri presses the point that it was a mutiny, not coup. Prigozhin had no intention of overthrowing or replacing Putin, and that saving Wagner (and himself) was the goal. A mutiny whose leaders go unpunished seems like it would just keep brewing. Prig isn’t suddenly toothless just because he’s in a neighboring country, he’s just their problem now.
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Jun 26, 2023 11:35
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From NYT reporting on Lukashenko's role comes this gem:quote:The conversation between Mr. Lukashenko and Mr. Prigozhin was “very difficult,” said Mr. Gigin, who this month became the director of the National Library of Belarus. “They immediately blurted out such vulgar things it would make any mother cry. The conversation was hard, and as I was told, masculine.” GRR, MANLY
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Jun 26, 2023 12:38
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Release the tapes!
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Jun 26, 2023 12:58
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EasilyConfused posted:From NYT reporting on Lukashenko's role comes this gem: It’s the same thing as all of those Trump stories
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Jun 26, 2023 13:08
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EasilyConfused posted:From NYT reporting on Lukashenko's role comes this gem: Diss tape is real
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Jun 26, 2023 13:09
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Boris Galerkin posted:Can anyone else comment on whether this podcast/person is worth listening to? Not calling you out OP just wanted another opinion. Sort of from the another side, what are people’s opinions on Mark Ames? It seems like his expertise is really just on being an expat in Russia in the 90s and 2000s, but due to that and him saying the sort of stuff they want him to say, internet lefties just kind of assume he has some special insight into Russian politics or domestic affairs. And then of course there’s all the Exile stuff.
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Jun 26, 2023 13:52
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Dr.Radical posted:Sort of from the another side, what are people’s opinions on Mark Ames? It seems like his expertise is really just on being an expat in Russia in the 90s and 2000s, but due to that and him saying the sort of stuff they want him to say, internet lefties just kind of assume he has some special insight into Russian politics or domestic affairs. And then of course there’s all the Exile stuff. he has exactly as much insight into russian politics as anyone else who did massive amounts of coke in moscow in the 90s
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Jun 26, 2023 13:54
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See that’s what I’m saying. I recently saw someone I know on Facebook say something to the effect of “I just listen to Mark Ames when it comes to anything about Russia and even he has no idea about this Wagner thing!” And I’m just thinking, “Well yeah. Why would he know anything about this?”
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Jun 26, 2023 14:01
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Dr.Radical posted:Sort of from the another side, what are people’s opinions on Mark Ames? It seems like his expertise is really just on being an expat in Russia in the 90s and 2000s, but due to that and him saying the sort of stuff they want him to say, internet lefties just kind of assume he has some special insight into Russian politics or domestic affairs. And then of course there’s all the Exile stuff. He's a creep, sex pest and alt media grifter.
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Jun 26, 2023 14:04
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zetamind2000 posted:Diss tape is real There's no justice in this world if the transcripts of that conversation go unreleased.
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Jun 26, 2023 14:11
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Ames and Gary Brecher can make some very convincing arguments that prove to be totally wrong
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Jun 26, 2023 14:11
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Dr.Radical posted:Sort of from the another side, what are people’s opinions on Mark Ames? It seems like his expertise is really just on being an expat in Russia in the 90s and 2000s, but due to that and him saying the sort of stuff they want him to say, internet lefties just kind of assume he has some special insight into Russian politics or domestic affairs. And then of course there’s all the Exile stuff. Absolute moron head deep into anti-anti brainworms
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Jun 26, 2023 14:23
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Dick Ripple posted:Probably the best assessment I have heard regarding events of the past few days. https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/geopolitics-decanted-by-silverado/id1614010500 Dmitri's interpretation of Putin's motivations doesn't make any particular sense to me, but he gets Prigozhin's motivations obviously right, which is better than I have seen any other public analyst do. He covers a lot of epistemology on the subject I didn't know about, especially around Putin's general political cowardice.
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Jun 26, 2023 14:31
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