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Ynglaur posted:I thought Shoigu was with Putin in the St Petersburg days. I could swear I heard that in The Russia Contingency at some point. No Shoigu has been part of national government for longer than Putin has. He’s been a minister of some sort since post-communism started actually and he only moved to Moscow around a year before he became part of national government. He was briefly Putin’s deputy prime minister and was the original (nominal) head of united russia so he is a close Putin ally but shoigu has lasted as long as he has due to an intense ability to please the elites around him. This is also the reason why Russia was so unprepared for the war since Shoigu would let the oligarchs plunder and embezzle from the army to please them than falsify the reports to please putin
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Jun 26, 2023 14:33
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It seems more and more like the troll factories and whatnot in Russia are actually the Russian Intelligence defense because it was cheaper than to actually try to control their own flow of information but it all backfired and now not even the top doesn't know what information is correct or not.
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Jun 26, 2023 14:45
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https://twitter.com/maxfras/status/1673310178756706307
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Jun 26, 2023 14:53
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I mean, given the Rapid Onset Window Gravity of Russians who displease Putin I'd say that's a smart move.
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Jun 26, 2023 15:02
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Great overview of the Russian voenkor ecosystem that grew parallel to the official propaganda machine, mostly on the Prigozhin payroll https://twitter.com/Alexey__Kovalev/status/1673329448425254912?t=z7oNV-464jb2rhEvlOszpQ&s=19
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Jun 26, 2023 15:05
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Hannibal Rex posted:He's a creep, sex pest and alt media grifter. In  spoilers below, I've copied Ames' tale bragging about raping a 15 year old ("Right [when I was told her age] my pervometer needle hit the red. I had to have her, even if she was homely.”) and his subsequent ongoing mockery and abuse of her in print.“When I went back into the TV room, Andy pulled me aside with a worried grin on his face. ‘Dude do you realize…do you know how old that Natasha is?’ he said. “‘Sixteen?’ “‘No! No, she’s fif-teen. Fif-teen.’ Right then my pervometer needle hit the red. I had to have her, even if she was homely.” After they do it, she tells him she has a three-month-old baby. “It was hard to imagine that Natasha had squatted out a baby,” Ames writes. “Her oval office was as tight as a cat’s rear end….I’d slept with mothers before—they’re a lot wider. Sex with them is like probing a straw in a mildew-lined German beer mug.” Later he learns that she’s lying—she has no baby, but rather is four months pregnant. After she has an abortion, he writes about her in the Exile, suggesting that she be sterilized and awarded “one of those cheap trophy cups with the inscription ‘World’s Greatest Mom.'” This is also why anyone who only stopped fawning over Taibbi after the Twitter Files should be regarded with extreme suspicion and anyone citing Ames at all can gently caress off.
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Jun 26, 2023 15:05
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BIG FLUFFY DOG posted:No Shoigu has been part of national government for longer than Putin has. He’s been a minister of some sort since post-communism started actually and he only moved to Moscow around a year before he became part of national government. Yeah. He's been an early Putin ally since 1999/2000, but he wasn't part of the even earlier Peterburg group that comprises most of Putin's inner circle. He may be the only member of that circle who doesn't predate Putin's presidency, I'm not sure. Here's an assessment from 2019: https://ridl.io/meet-russia-s-saviour-in-chief/
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Jun 26, 2023 15:30
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https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1673336685717864456 Really disappointed that no one thought of this thread title.
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Jun 26, 2023 15:33
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Hearing disturbing reports that pizza has gone woke
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Jun 26, 2023 15:34
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ummel posted:https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1673336685717864456 The NY Post will never be distracted from its main mission of giving Republicans content to share on social media regarding the latest woke attacks on our American way of life.
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Jun 26, 2023 15:35
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Dick Ripple posted:Dmitri presses the point that it was a mutiny, not coup. Heh. I was reminded here of something from a decade or so ago where some officers in a country in Africa (Mali?) were pissed at the president (coincidentally, over how he was handling a war) and headed to the capital to tell him off. The president panicked and fled, and there they were, in the palace, having executed a coup they never planned to do. Seeing stuff in retrospect, it doesn't sound so straightforward, but I'm still not convinced that uprising was a coup from the start. I'm trying to remember finer stuff from, say, Robert Duncan's Revolutions podcast where people just kind of found themselves holding the reins after everybody vacated. It can definitely happen.
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Jun 26, 2023 15:56
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Paracaidas posted:Mark Ames Sex Crime Dossier
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Jun 26, 2023 16:36
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CNN is saying Priggy has released an audiotape explaining why he backed down and thanking Luka for mediating. But doesn't say where he is. Kind of odd to release an audiotape in 2023 when literally everyone has a video camera in their pocket that can take 4K video.
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Jun 26, 2023 16:38
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Charliegrs posted:CNN is saying Priggy has released an audiotape explaining why he backed down and thanking Luka for mediating. But doesn't say where he is. Kind of odd to release an audiotape in 2023 when literally everyone has a video camera in their pocket that can take 4K video. He did it during the wild ride as well, it just seems like how he does it. e: He's a 62-year old man.
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Jun 26, 2023 16:41
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What the gently caress don’t read that spoilered part. Jesus Christ.
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Jun 26, 2023 16:42
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Randarkman posted:He did it during the wild ride as well, it just seems like how he does it. drat, being a cook and orchestra director takes a toll. Dude looks at least 70.
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Jun 26, 2023 16:42
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Charliegrs posted:CNN is saying Priggy has released an audiotape explaining why he backed down and thanking Luka for mediating. But doesn't say where he is. Kind of odd to release an audiotape in 2023 when literally everyone has a video camera in their pocket that can take 4K video. There's a summary translation here https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1673341974882004994
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Jun 26, 2023 16:45
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alex314 posted:drat, being a cook and orchestra director takes a toll. Dude looks at least 70. Well, he's Russian.
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Jun 26, 2023 16:45
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Charliegrs posted:CNN is saying Priggy has released an audiotape explaining why he backed down and thanking Luka for mediating. But doesn't say where he is. Kind of odd to release an audiotape in 2023 when literally everyone has a video camera in their pocket that can take 4K video. Releasing a video is a quick way of getting geolocated and then hit by artillery.
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Jun 26, 2023 16:54
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Already got a "every X" video on the Wagner rebellion https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_BwEaSHIw3I
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Jun 26, 2023 17:07
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Here's a former KGB agent calling the government "weak" on state TV https://twitter.com/VladaKnowlton/status/1673337534435274752
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Jun 26, 2023 17:18
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Icon Of Sin posted:A mutiny whose leaders go unpunished seems like it would just keep brewing. Prig isn’t suddenly toothless just because he’s in a neighboring country, he’s just their problem now. So I want to point out that this isn't historically true. In the modern day we tend to think of mutinies as dramatic events where the mutineers violently throw off all claim to outside authority to strike their own course entirely, but this is actually a relatively recent development. More commonly, mutiny is in effect a form of protest against current conditions. Roman plebs for instance were well-known for mutinying - refusing to muster to battle - at critical times to force patricians to make important political concessions. In the pre-Napoleonic Royal Navy, memories of the Bounty notwithstanding, most mutinies were in effect strikes (itself a naval term - to "strike the yards" means to bring down the yards the sails are attached to, and to "strike" was to refuse to put them back up again so that the ship can sail until your demands are met) where the mutineers declared that their current condition was intolerable and that the officers had to meet their demands or the sailors would refuse to work - barring an emergency, of course. Importantly, the mutineers commonly did not fundamentally DISAGREE that the captain, officers, and admiralty had a right to authority - they simply felt that the authorities had broken the implicit social contract that said that sailors, especially experienced sailors, had a right to a minimum of good treatment and respect, and as soon as that contract was restored they would be happy to resubmit to authority. Most such mutinies began and ended peacefully, with a few of the ringleaders taking token punishments just to make it clear that the authorities WERE in charge (which they generally accepted), but with the demands of the mutineers generally being met. This started changing around the time of the Napoleonic Wars when the threat of La Revolution seemed to make every disagreement with leadership a precursor to the guillotine, not to mention changing cultural mores within the Royal Navy and wider British culture regarding the relationship between commanders and the commanded (to be brief, more authoritarian but also more paternal and with a closer eye to the welfare of the crew). Even going into the modern era, the French Army in WW1 was famously paralyzed by mutiny partway through, but critically the mutineers were perfectly willing to stay in the trenches and keep fighting if the Germans attacked - what they wanted was better treatment and an end to what they viewed as senseless offensives. Broadly speaking punishment was light and most of their demands were met. The key thing I want to note is that mutiny is not NECESSARILY a deathblow to authority, even in situations where theoretically the leader has absolute power of life and death. However, a successful mutiny does demonstrate the real, practical limits of that authority - there's only so far you can push soldiers before they push back, and only so much you can ask of them. Critically, once you get to that point authority is frequently willing to back down because they're aware that if they did try to force the issue, they may very well shatter their authority entirely - maintaining the kayfabe and smoothing everything over afterwards is much easier and safer, usually. It also tends to illustrate just how dependent the authorities are on those they command - mutinies happened because the mutineers were extremely aware that if they refused to fight or work, their commanders were helpless. Mutineers had leverage, and were willing to use that leverage for better treatment, but generally were not interested in upending the social order entirely. Of course, how this applies to Prigozhin is an interesting question - Wagner wasn't critical to the Russian war effort in such a way that refusal to fight would have paralyzed the Russian Army, their leverage was gained by an apparent willingness and ability to shoot their way through to Moscow. But if you think about it in terms of a direct relationship between Prigozhin and Putin it might make more sense - Prigozhin wanted to demonstrate that he couldn't be pushed too far, and that he had the means to fight back if pushed. Not necessarily enough to overthrow the state, but enough to make it inconvenient for Putin, and better to just give into his demands. If Prigozhin is left alive and unharmed, this wouldn't NECESSARILY mean that someone will overthrow Putin (everything about how Prigozhin isn't in a position to simply take over applies to almost everyone else), but it MAY mean that Putin's other power brokers start getting ideas about gaining more independence and autonomy in their own little fiefdoms - if Prigozhin could use the threat of force or non-compliance to gain concessions, why can't they? I suspect that would be the limits of many of their ambitions anyways - let Putin take on the thankless task of national leadership, while his vassals have greater reign to plunder and throw their weight around and generally live the good life. So yeah, this started out being a somewhat rambly historical diversion but thinking about it now it's possible that what this will lead to isn't Putin getting toppled, but rather the Russian power structure getting even more feudalistic than it already is, with increasingly independent power brokers who don't necessarily want the top seat but do want to be able to act as they please. But I'm not actually a Kremlinologist or anything, just trying to make sense of what I'm seeing so, well, yeah.
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Jun 26, 2023 17:20
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Tigey posted:his name always kept coming up in my peripheral vision as a 'Russia expert' that some people love to cite he works more to promote himself on social media than actual experts, and has been doing so for longer than academics broke out of their bubble a bit and started using social media
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Jun 26, 2023 17:21
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Tomn posted:
Isn’t that kinda how it is already?
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Jun 26, 2023 17:25
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i am a moron posted:Isn’t that kinda how it is already? My understanding is that prior to the Ukrainian War, Putin held direct control, full stop - fiefdoms could be handed out and people could act within the limits of those fiefdoms, but they could also be taken away again at Putin's whim if the vassals misbehaved in some way. Prigozhin's mutiny might cause a change where increasingly Putin has less authority to be able to revoke fiefdoms at will, with all that implies.
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Jun 26, 2023 17:36
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Rocko Bonaparte posted:
I followed Prigozhin's statements the day of the mutiny, and it he specifically said it was not a declared coup or an act to depose the president from the beginning. Just a mutiny against the MoD. He specifically said he did not want to confront civilian government, or the army really. He just wanted to hang Shoigu in Red Square.Once there was an arrest warrant he kind of popped off and started ranting about "a new president/election" (paraphrasing here) but it didn't start as a coup at all. He also lies a lot so...
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Jun 26, 2023 17:42
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ummel posted:I followed Prigozhin's statements the day of the mutiny, and it he specifically said it was not a declared coup or an act to depose the president from the beginning. Just a mutiny against the MoD. He specifically said he did not want to confront civilian government. Once there was an arrest warrant he kind of popped off and started ranting about "a new president/election" (paraphrasing here) but it didn't start as a coup at all. He also lies a lot so... i get the argument that the goals of this were more in line with a mutiny. but the thing is, the sort of mutiny that people are talking about that's not overly destructive to the regime are essentially strikes. and this...was not that. even if the plan was basically to be a strike, even if he had no intention of an actual coup, he still marched on moscow and got most of the way there and demonstrated the state could not effectively stop him short of the gates of moscow. that is what's so destabilizing and the fact that in his head he was thinking mutiny and not coup doesn't really affect that, from the perspective of the stability of the state, this was absolutely in the coup camp.
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Jun 26, 2023 17:45
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Charliegrs posted:CNN is saying Priggy has released an audiotape explaining why he backed down and thanking Luka for mediating. But doesn't say where he is. Kind of odd to release an audiotape in 2023 when literally everyone has a video camera in their pocket that can take 4K video. true crime podcasts are really popular these days
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Jun 26, 2023 17:52
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"He didn't want to overthrow the government, he just wanted to hang them in Red Square"
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Jun 26, 2023 17:54
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Chalks posted:Here's a former KGB agent calling the government "weak" on state TV That sounds a lot like manufacturing consent as a basis for backtracking on the supposed deal. After all, the tsar can't go against the will of the people.
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Jun 26, 2023 17:55
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evilweasel posted:i get the argument that the goals of this were more in line with a mutiny. but the thing is, the sort of mutiny that people are talking about that's not overly destructive to the regime are essentially strikes. and this...was not that. even if the plan was basically to be a strike, even if he had no intention of an actual coup, he still marched on moscow and got most of the way there and demonstrated the state could not effectively stop him short of the gates of moscow. It is interesting I'll note that Prigozhin's latest statement, posted above, really really wants to emphasize that the march was mostly peaceful, downplaying whatever violence DID happen, and that it was supposedly fundamentally called off "to avoid shedding the blood of Russian soldiers." It also wanted to emphasize that it wasn't actually about overthrowing Russia's leaders. You're not wrong that actions are more important than what was in Prigozhin's head, but it does seem like Prigozhin really, REALLY wants to walk back any idea that this was a coup.
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Jun 26, 2023 17:56
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qhat posted:"He didn't want to overthrow the government, he just wanted to hang them in Red Square" Priggy is a man of many conflicting ideas. And also a liar of epic proportions. https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1673346277814198275 quote:Summary of Prigozhin's 26 June address to clarify the situation: it was to demonstrate protest against the "destruction of PMC Wagner, not toppling the Russian authorities": ummel fucked around with this message at 18:12 on Jun 26, 2023 |
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Jun 26, 2023 17:57
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ummel posted:Priggy is a man of many conflicting ideas. And also a liar of epic proportions. I think it's more likely he's just an idiot who has no idea what an actual coup is.
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Jun 26, 2023 18:01
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qhat posted:I think it's more likely he's just an idiot who has no idea what an actual coup is. He probably does, but for the sake of not having polonium in his mouthwash or shower beer, he is also trying to publicly rules-lawyer the difference between mutiny, coup, brouhaha, and disagreement.
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Jun 26, 2023 18:05
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Pieces that might not be tied together but do raise questions: Why was it Lukashenko that had to broker the deal? Why is it Belarus that Prigozhin is exiled to? It's still well within Russia's sphere of direct influence, and it's another place at extreme risk of armed uprising With the potential connecting piece; Russia just moved a bunch of their nukes into Belarus. They claim it's for deterring invasion, by either Ukraine or NATO, but while that's good propaganda food the guys actually making these decisions must know it doesn't make any difference to that purpose. So why did they really move nukes into Belarus? We now know Putin has surprisingly tight limits on enforcing his will over some of his vassals. Was this a security payment to keep Luka in line? Is that leverage now why Luka apparently had the ability to make this deal, and Prigozhin could have some confidence it had real weight? I thought the economic issues would be the cause of Russia eating itself right about now, but I guess I should have bet on self-destructive feudal power dynamics. EDIT: qhat posted:I think it's more likely he's just an idiot who has no idea what an actual coup is. As baffling as his "oops sorry no coup" is, one does not conquer a city, shoot down several aircraft and get to the outskirts of Moscow with a small army, and LIVE (so far) to tell about it as an idiot. In fact this makes him look significantly smarter than Putin; Prigozhin stuck his hand in the fire but pulled it out before getting burned. Putin's cuffed his hands to the spit roast with this war. It's baffling but it still shows a lot of political and tactical intelligence. Orthanc6 fucked around with this message at 18:18 on Jun 26, 2023 |
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Jun 26, 2023 18:13
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qhat posted:I think it's more likely he's just an idiot who has no idea what an actual coup is. Wagner's Unvollendete
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Jun 26, 2023 18:23
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Hannibal Rex posted:Wagner's Unvollendete Thread title, that's gold
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Jun 26, 2023 18:26
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ummel posted:Priggy is a man of many conflicting ideas. And also a liar of epic proportions. Pretty sure they only killed some soldiers in the air, so technically not untrue.
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Jun 26, 2023 18:33
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--- Russia bombing Russia. I am curious if those big trucks are as civilian as they look? https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1673367544323874816 (This is less disturbing than another clip I saw yesterday, where the car was way closer).
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Jun 26, 2023 18:37
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OddObserver posted:
So much for bloodless on both sides. It also makes me think that the Voronezh tank farm that got demolished was a clear denial strike and not a stray Strela igniting the whole thing up.
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Jun 26, 2023 19:02
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