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Paul MaudDib
May 3, 2006

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The Lord Bude posted:

It doesn’t matter whether or not Apple breaks even on it, it’s still a bad deal for anyone who can afford to pay for the repair or replacement themselves if something happens to their laptop because most people don’t break their laptops. It’s a trick to exploit people’s fear of something bad happening when the reality is for most people it’ll never happen, and even if it does for many people it’s not a big deal financially. If you’re that concerned just stick a couple grand in a savings account and leave it there, you’ll actually make money instead of wasting it and you’ll be able to cover yourself if something bad happens.

It literally does matter because apple isn’t adjusting the premium high enough to cover the risk, the policy is sold at an expected loss. Taking it has a positive expected value for the customer; that’s the only thing that matters.

Take your thousand bucks and stick it in a bank account too. Good for you. It doesn’t change the expected value of the policy.

You’re being sold a $100 lottery ticket that pays out 1/100th of the time (EV $1) for 50 cents. The rational choice is to take it even if you probably won’t win it, it’s a net increase in expected value.

Paul MaudDib fucked around with this message at 05:56 on Jun 27, 2023

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The Lord Bude
May 23, 2007

ASK ME ABOUT MY SHITTY, BOUGIE INTERIOR DECORATING ADVICE

Paul MaudDib posted:

It literally does matter because apple isn’t adjusting the premium high enough to cover the risk, the policy is sold at an expected loss. Taking it has a positive expected value for the customer; that’s the only thing that matters.

Take your thousand bucks and stick it in a bank account too. Good for you. It doesn’t change the expected value of the policy.

It literally can’t have a positive value unless you end up needing it - ie you break something. most people will not break their computer. Many people will go their entire lives without breaking their computer. When you get Applecare you are literally gambling on whether or not you’re going to break your device, and betting against yourself; except the odds are overwhelmingly on the side of you not needing it. It’s dumb.

The Lord Bude
May 23, 2007

ASK ME ABOUT MY SHITTY, BOUGIE INTERIOR DECORATING ADVICE

Paul MaudDib posted:

You’re being sold a $100 lottery ticket that pays out 1/100th of the time (EV $1) for 50 cents. The rational choice is to take it even if you probably won’t win it, it’s a net increase in expected value.

This is an insane argument. There’s nothing remotely rational about doing that, it’s entirely an emotional decision.

Paul MaudDib
May 3, 2006

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The Lord Bude posted:

This is an insane argument. There’s nothing remotely rational about doing that, it’s entirely an emotional decision.

Do you believe in the concept of expected value y/n?

As a general statement if I offered you the chance to buy a lottery ticket that pays out $100 1/100th of the time for 50 cents you should hammer that button as many times as you can because statistically you make 50 cents every time you do. There’s nothing emotional about it, on average I am selling you a $1 bill for 50 cents. You just don’t understand the concept of expected value, this is literally the basic concept of insurance underwriting, portfolio theory, etc.

like if you know it’s going to sit on a desk untouched for 3 years (or if it’s a desktop that isn’t going to be moved) then yea your expected value is different from the standard one, because you have different priors, and you shouldn’t buy AppleCare. But, on average, taking AppleCare will deliver more value than not taking it, because apple loses money on repairs, meaning they are operating at negative expected value on those policies. Especially when you consider the self selection at play - the people buying apple care have more accidents than a truly average person.

It works the same way, it’s literally a lottery ticket. The fact that apple charges a $400+ premium for non-AppleCare repairs only tilts this balance even further towards buying it - it’s a lottery ticket where if you don’t buy it and I win the lottery ticket you would have bought, then you have to pay me another dollar on top anyway. And it mean they’re actually operating the AppleCare policies at an even more drastic negative EV for themselves, because they’re losing money even with this downside whammy from people who didn’t buy the policy.

Take the 50 cent ticket, it’s already positive EV and with the downside whammy it’s excruciatingly positive.

Further exciting fun in the world of expected value: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem

Paul MaudDib fucked around with this message at 06:31 on Jun 27, 2023

The Lord Bude
May 23, 2007

ASK ME ABOUT MY SHITTY, BOUGIE INTERIOR DECORATING ADVICE

Paul MaudDib posted:

As a general statement if I offered you the chance to buy a lottery ticket that pays out $100 1/100th of the time for 50 cents you should hammer that button as many times as you can because statistically you make 50 cents every time you do. There’s nothing emotional about it, on average I am selling you a $1 bill for 50 cents. You just don’t understand the concept of expected value, this is literally the basic concept of insurance underwriting, portfolio theory, etc.

you didn’t say I could buy the ticket an unlimited number of times. If I can only buy it once, then it’s a bad deal. If I can buy 1000 of them, then yes, statistically I make 5oc each time.

Paul MaudDib posted:

like if you know it’s going to sit on a desk untouched for 3 years (or if it’s a desktop that isn’t going to be moved) then yea your expected value is different from the standard one, because you have different priors, and you shouldn’t buy AppleCare. But, on average, taking AppleCare will deliver more value than not taking it, because apple loses money on repairs, meaning they are operating at negative expected value on those policies. Especially when you consider the self selection at play - the people buying apple care have more accidents than a truly average person.

I still don’t agree with you. In the lottery ticket scenario you have known odds. I don’t think you can prove that the average person comes out ahead when they buy AppleCare. Probably you can demonstrate that certain specific high risk groups can.

The Lord Bude fucked around with this message at 07:08 on Jun 27, 2023

TACD
Oct 27, 2000

The Lord Bude posted:

When you get Applecare you are literally gambling on whether or not you’re going to break your device, and betting against yourself; except the odds are overwhelmingly on the side of you not needing it. It’s dumb.
Breaking your computer isn’t the only case where AppleCare pays, it’s also possible the computer might just develop a fault on its own. There have been many iterations of Apple computer with faults that didn’t appear until the machines had been around for a couple of years but weren’t a big enough deal to be covered by an out-of-warranty service program.

This is probably less of an issue now the computers are all basically one tiny board with hardly any moving parts or cables, admittedly.

There’s also the fact that (at least when I worked there many years ago) Apple techs are just generally more favourable if AppleCare is registered on a system. It probably shouldn’t be that way, but if somebody came in with some borderline issue or a just-past-coverage machine, they’d be much more likely to get the benefit of the doubt and have their repair covered if AppleCare was on there.

Canned Sunshine
Nov 20, 2005

CAUTION: POST QUALITY UNDER CONSTRUCTION



Paul MaudDib posted:

More recently, independent repair shops seem to agree that charging the rates apple charges results in a breakeven or loss. Same for the independent shops losing money installing self-service-repair parts. That’s framed as a bad thing but it’s actually just confirmation that they’re running the division at a loss, and people just can’t bring themselves to admit it.
Neither of those articles is saying what you claim it says. Both are indicating that the independent shop is finding it hard to break even on their proposed repair costs, when factoring in what they pay Apple for the components. However, no-where did the articles indicate that what they are paying Apple for the components, is what it cost Apple to procure said part. Apple is almost certainly applying a markup to the component that they are then selling to the shops/etc.

If the articles had actually stated that the repair shops were paying the same cost as what Apple pays wholesale, then yes, I would agree with your argument here. As it is, the interpretation you presented is not accurate.


Paul MaudDib posted:

I truly don’t see why there’s a reason to race into “well apple must be overcharging for the parts then!”. No, they’re not, their parts are high-quality and expensive as poo poo, that’s what they cost.
No-one said this; yes, their parts are high quality, and yes, we all expect the components to have a significant cost.

Paul MaudDib posted:

Instead, they were and are running the repair division at a loss.
You have yet to actually demonstrate this, even though I asked you for actual justifiable sources, not articles that complain about independent repair shop costs.

Paul MaudDib posted:

They’re dumping on the normal repairs, not gouging on self-service. If apple was overcharging end-users for parts after launching self-service, it would be both incredibly easy for EU investigators to figure out, and devastating to their defense against right to repair.
This is a Confirmation Bias argument, but not very good. Apple launched the independent repair program in 2019, but then Covid occurred, and honestly when it comes to independent shops, they can point to pandemic-related disruption for why it's been difficult for the shops to obtain parts (whether that's actually justifiable or not, I'm not going to say. But I work in a field that needs to procure plenty of industrial equipment, and plenty of suppliers are still claiming pandemic-induced Force Majeure on contracts).

They then announced and began to slowly launch the self-service repair in 2021, although it formally ramped/launched in April 2022.

To your point about "EU regulators", which seems to be a "gotcha" point, Apple just launched the self-service repair in the EU in... December 2022. So if you think that the EU would have been able to establish cause, done their investigation, and issued a notice to Apple within just 6 months of the program launching, well, I've got a bridge in Alaska to sell you...

Paul MaudDib posted:

They’re charging self-service customers their internal prices, but running their applecare repair labor/overhead at a loss. And that’s where the “we can’t do this at apples prices!” comes from. Apple is actually dumping, they’re running the labor/overhead at a loss.
Again, do you have actual sources to back this up? So far, it's just your normal Word Salad speculation that doesn't seem to be based on any fact.

Paul MaudDib posted:

People are assuming it must be overcharging for parts because theres no way they could have just been telling the truth all along. Why would you run the division at a loss?
Again, no-one has said anything along the lines of overcharging, etc. And I didn't even say that they weren't taking a loss on individual repairs! But the point of insurance of any kind, is to spread the risk across as many customers as possible, so as to not take a loss. That's how Homeowner's Insurance works, that's how Car Insurance works, that's how Medical insurance works. AppleCare is insurance. And usually, when insurance costs go above whatever target has been established, the company operating it will make changes, i.e. refuse to cover homes in certain areas, refuse to cover certain models of cars, or refuse coverage of certain medical treatments.

Instead, Apple expanded the coverage benefits and added an option for continuous long-term coverage. Sure, that may be a continuous "loss leader" for them, but you're going to need to back it up, because it's not standard industry practice for any type of insurance option, in any field/market.

Paul MaudDib posted:

Answer: As a form of corporate responsibility to make up for your lovely brittle laptops and repeated design flaws, and as a way to establish and subsidize a retail presence that makes you profit in other ways. They make the profit on charging you $400 for a TB of flash, not the repair when you break it. And getting your device back working again means they don’t have to pay to recycle it either. Even if you trade it in or recycle it, Apple will pay to fix it and it’ll end up in Africa or India as a refurb.
You really should spend more time reading up on Apple's full on efforts in this, because they have a significant number of recycling programs in place, in order to recycle iPhones, iPads, Macs, etc., for the base materials that can then be sold however.

But hey, if you have sources to back up this "They'll pay to fix it and send it to Africa or India as a refurb", I would love to see it.

And of course they make profit on upgrades, and of course that might help to offset other costs, but they also have been making record profits most quarters the last decade+, and that is in part driven by those upgrade costs.

Paul MaudDib posted:

So again: it’s a weird situation where they’re anti-right-to-repair but also have the longest software support and hardware repair lifecycles, and are subsidizing the repairs to customers devices and running that division at a loss, to force people into their stores. And they have “perverse incentives” to keep devices working because of their robust recycling programs and refurb/developing-market sales programs. Apple is loving weird, they are masters of the “total lifecycle” thinking. Tim Apple being Tim Apple, the supply-chain mastermind.

In a way they are doing the right thing for all the wrong reasons, but there’s also a healthy dose of lovely behavior (interdicting parts) and bad product design (ribbon cable failures, butterfly KB, etc) thrown in. But otoh Samsung or Motorola don’t give a poo poo about the repair and support lifecycle of their devices either, they’re happy to drop support 3 years after launch and have your phone end up in a landfill. They’re doing the wrong things for the right reasons, but they’re not having customs seizing parts shipments either.

This is pretty much all speculation, which is fine, but nothing worth responding to.

Paul MaudDib posted:

But at the end of the day, e-waste is reduced by apples way compared to Samsung or Motorola, even if it means Louis Rossman can’t operate his business without the subsidies that apple gives to their own repair network. Very weird set of incentives and loops - should you tolerate dumping if what’s being dumped is repair labor that keeps e-waste out of landfills? That’s their defense against right-to-repair, they are legitimately honestly running repairs at a loss - because it means they get a massive retail network free of charge on the backs of those subsidized repairs. And the inability of independent repair places to match their labor/overhead even with self-service parts at internal pricing shows that it's not just a book loss/shuffling money around, they really are tipping repairs into an actual operating loss.

You're gonna need to dig up those sources about the running repairs at a loss, because otherwise, it's all just speculation on your end. Because they've already done steps that they can point to for justifying right-to-repair, such as the Independent Repair Program or the Self-Service Repair program; they never promised or indicated that they would make parts available at their wholesale cost, so the comments about running at a loss, are just Paul Muadib Speculation.

Paul MaudDib posted:

Just like shipping around two pelican cases of repair tools on loan to fix your phone wasn’t a stunt either… yes, they are legitimately losing money on that and they are fine with that. It’s something they can point to on R2R and costs them very little since most people will prefer the experts to do it below-cost instead.

They might actually be losing some money on this, I agree... but the Self-Service Repair program for iPhones (and recently a few other Apple products) is such a small, small sliver of their overall repair program, that yes, it absolutely is a PR stunt for the R2R group.

However, nothing about the Self-Service Program in terms of the repair kits, etc., applies to their own store repairs, their Independent Repair Program, etc. You're simply extrapolating a few points into your entire narrative, without references/sources.

Paul MaudDib posted:

And that's all completely different from a normal insurance underwriter who needs to make an expected return on average for each contract in a competitive, free market. The underwriter can't sell you airpods when you come in for your $100 screen replacement (marked down from $800), or sell someone else a macbook in the store your applecare premium helped to keep open.
The underwriters attempt to sell up services when you request/apply for a quote, or will follow up later with offers of other services, though. Yeah, they're not selling you AirPods; instead they'll just ask you about life insurance.

Canned Sunshine fucked around with this message at 07:43 on Jun 27, 2023

Paul MaudDib
May 3, 2006

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The Lord Bude posted:

I still don’t agree with you. In the lottery ticket scenario you have known odds. I don’t think you can prove that the average person comes out ahead when they buy AppleCare.

here, just pick your own numbers my dude.

https://trinket.io/embed/python3/94bbff8fa2

Arivia
Mar 17, 2011
I’ll buy a bridge in Alaska, Alaska has some pretty drat important bridges.

Canned Sunshine
Nov 20, 2005

CAUTION: POST QUALITY UNDER CONSTRUCTION



TACD posted:

Breaking your computer isn’t the only case where AppleCare pays, it’s also possible the computer might just develop a fault on its own. There have been many iterations of Apple computer with faults that didn’t appear until the machines had been around for a couple of years but weren’t a big enough deal to be covered by an out-of-warranty service program.

This is probably less of an issue now the computers are all basically one tiny board with hardly any moving parts or cables, admittedly.

There’s also the fact that (at least when I worked there many years ago) Apple techs are just generally more favourable if AppleCare is registered on a system. It probably shouldn’t be that way, but if somebody came in with some borderline issue or a just-past-coverage machine, they’d be much more likely to get the benefit of the doubt and have their repair covered if AppleCare was on there.

It's also important to remember that up until just recently, AppleCare only covered two years beyond the first year, and extended accidental repair coverage/etc. to the first year also, for Macs and displays (it was just two years from purchase for iPhones, iPads, etc.).

As most know, if there's going to be a manufacturing-related defect, it'll typically appear within the first year of usage, so having a customer pay for AppleCare for 2 additional years, provided Apple with essentially a decent additional revenue source, since they would have been required to repair the product within its first year standard warranty anyway.

Before AppleCare provided accidental coverage protection (with a deductible, of course), it was an even better deal for Apple, since it was just related to manufacturer-related defects (at least when it comes to Macs, etc.).

That's why I'm so skeptical that they're actually losing any money on the overall program; they not only have kept it going, they've expanded it to include accidental coverage, etc., for all devices, for a relatively small increase in cost, and even now provide for continuous coverage past the traditional/standard 2-3 year period, as long as you are on the monthly or annual payment plan (which costs more than the lump-sum 2 year offer).

If one of my kids damages my MBP and I take it in for a repair under AppleCare+, I'm sure they lose money on that single repair, since as of today, since I've had it now for 1 1/2 years, and have paid $198 towards AppleCare, and then I'd have a $99 deductible (screen, body) or $299 (anything else) to pay at the time of service. But if I keep this device for 10 years, pay AppleCare for 7 of those (until obsolete), and never make a claim, that's $700 Apple made off of me, with $0 cost to them. But I guess, for Paul's benefit, that'll disappear into the ether.

The Lord Bude
May 23, 2007

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TACD posted:

Breaking your computer isn’t the only case where AppleCare pays, it’s also possible the computer might just develop a fault on its own. There have been many iterations of Apple computer with faults that didn’t appear until the machines had been around for a couple of years but weren’t a big enough deal to be covered by an out-of-warranty service program.

Fair point If you live in the US where consumer law is poo poo I guess. In australia I’d expect to be able to go to wherever I bought it and get a refund or have it repaired for free regardless of whether it’s still in warranty.

Paul MaudDib
May 3, 2006

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here is a slightly different version that backs a daily probability out of a "X% per year" and runs a bit more continuously than just a "1 repair per year" model. It does return eventually, just takes a few mins (or run it locally).

again, pick your own numbers - and bear in mind that "other damage" includes things like spills etc.

https://trinket.io/embed/python3/f7e51ca22a

The Grumbles
Jun 5, 2006

The Lord Bude posted:

It literally can’t have a positive value unless you end up needing it - ie you break something. most people will not break their computer. Many people will go their entire lives without breaking their computer. When you get Applecare you are literally gambling on whether or not you’re going to break your device, and betting against yourself; except the odds are overwhelmingly on the side of you not needing it. It’s dumb.

Ok ignoring the insane and hard-to-conceptualise lottery ticket argument - which is convoluted and confusing - there is a big benefit to apple care, which is just the ease of use and how customer-friendly the process is.

Before I sold my iPad, it developed a tiny light spot on the screen. It was in the last 4 days of its warranty. I took it in to the Apple Store, and within about 10 minutes I was walking out the door with a brand new device, no questions asked, nothing extra paid. Had that happened a week later, I probably would have wished I had the apple care on it. Also, this didn't happen because I broke or dropped something - the device just started to go to poo poo after a year.

When you go through an actual insurance claim there's so much back and forth, and tedium, and legal stuff - and generally the insurer is going to do what they can to minimise what you get out of the whole transaction. It's a real hassle and you usually come out of the experience feeling a little hustled. I'm going through an insurance claim at the moment, and the amount of time I have to spent in a phone queue listening to muzak is staggering.

So I think in that sense, the fact that you can just walk into a shop, have your issue resolved with zero resistance, by people who at least seem like they genuinely want to help you, is such a huge plus. Like, don't get me wrong, there's lots of incredibly predatory poo poo that Apple does in terms of how it sells you devices, the psychological tricks of their pricing ladder, all that stuff. But I think once you've bought the thing, their support is really good, and extending that support is a very attractive prospect.

Even putting insurance to one side, I've never known 3rd party repairs on computery stuff to be anything other than a huge minefield. I just don't want to ever again have to haggle with some dude in a repair shop that doubles as a vape shop, convincing him that I know enough about computers that he should stop trying to pull the wool over my eyes, and even then run the risk that the repair doesn't do the job.

Is that worth £60 per year for you and your computer? I don't think anyone can answer that besides you. But I think the quality of service is really a much bigger factor than how the maths of repairs vs yearly premiums or whatever works out.

edit: the TLDR of this is that you are paying for a service, and if you're only doing it because you've 'done the maths' and you think you're somehow clawing back some of the money you've given to Tim Apple over the years, you are an insane person.

The Grumbles fucked around with this message at 12:07 on Jun 27, 2023

TwoDice
Feb 11, 2005
Not one, two.
Grimey Drawer
Sorry to interrupt expected value warranty chat but there is finally a tb4 kvm: https://sabrent.com/products/sb-tb4k

I ordered one sight unseen so we'll see how well it works.

Paul MaudDib
May 3, 2006

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The Grumbles posted:

Ok ignoring the insane and hard-to-conceptualise lottery ticket argument - which is convoluted and confusing - there is a big benefit to apple care, which is just the ease of use and how customer-friendly the process is.

edit: the TLDR of this is that you are paying for a service, and if you're only doing it because you've 'done the maths' and you think you're somehow clawing back some of the money you've given to Tim Apple over the years, you are an insane person.

drat I guess a surprising amount of people never took a stats course?

There’s nothing all that complex about the idea of being sold a policy that you are likely to end up needing and using at a significant discount to the expected value you receive from it, it just normally isn’t done because the insurer would lose money. But that’s the idea of social security / health insurance - what if you got sold a health insurance policy at an expected loss for the insurer (pre existing conditions) because it was good social policy? A significant amount of people are going to need it, but not quite everyone, and on a statistical basis if you will take out more on average than you are putting in then it’s a good idea to take it, because you are being given a valuable thing at a discount!

There is no “lottery ticket” argument either, just people who need the concept of expected value explained to them lol

Seek actual advice before planning your retirement pls m

Paul MaudDib fucked around with this message at 15:15 on Jun 27, 2023

BUUNNI
Jun 23, 2023

by Pragmatica

The Lord Bude posted:

It literally can’t have a positive value unless you end up needing it - ie you break something. most people will not break their computer. Many people will go their entire lives without breaking their computer. When you get Applecare you are literally gambling on whether or not you’re going to break your device, and betting against yourself; except the odds are overwhelmingly on the side of you not needing it. It’s dumb.

Isn’t this the same argument anti-seatbelt law people made when wearing a seatbelt was made mandatory?

I just got a MBP with the M1 Pro chip refurbished from Amazon and I’m wondering if I could even add AC+ to it since my wife treats her computers pretty roughly

The Lord Bude
May 23, 2007

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BUUNNI posted:

Isn’t this the same argument anti-seatbelt law people made when wearing a seatbelt was made mandatory?

Wearing a seatbelt doesn’t cost you anything. It just makes you safer. Applecare plus doesn’t make it less likely you’ll damage your computer.

Paul MaudDib
May 3, 2006

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The Lord Bude posted:

you didn’t say I could buy the ticket an unlimited number of times. If I can only buy it once, then it’s a bad deal. If I can buy 1000 of them, then yes, statistically I make 5oc each time.

By the way this actually doesn’t make any difference at all either. Even if you only play the game once you’re still being sold a $1 bill for 50 cents and statistically you should take it.

Maybe that’s where the continued “you shouldn’t take insurance because you might not need it” misconception springs from, idk, but, either way you’re missing the point that expected value theory says a $100 plan with a 1/100 chance of paying out literally is the same thing as a $1 bill.

That’s kind of the whole basis of options trading actually - people even trade them as $1 bills too. Does The Lord Bude deign to acknowledge that options trading is a real thing that exists too, or are those people just nutty too?

Again, condolences on your financial literacy. Whether or not applecare policies is actually being sold for less than its expected value, if it was then it’d be statistically beneficial to take it. And I think that’s where we kinda are - we can’t even discuss whether it is net favorable or not because you don’t believe in the concept of net favorability/expected value in the first place.

Take a stats course please.

Paul MaudDib fucked around with this message at 15:12 on Jun 27, 2023

BUUNNI
Jun 23, 2023

by Pragmatica

The Lord Bude posted:

Wearing a seatbelt doesn’t cost you anything. It just makes you safer. Applecare plus doesn’t make it less likely you’ll damage your computer.

Fair point, but the price of the seatbelt system is added to the final cost of the car though, and most people will never even be in an accident, so why even bother wearing it?

the talent deficit
Dec 20, 2003

self-deprecation is a very british trait, and problems can arise when the british attempt to do so with a foreign culture





apple used to pay bonuses to associates who convinced users to attach applecare. there's no way they were losing money on applecare at that point. i'm extremely skeptical they are losing money on it now

The Lord Bude
May 23, 2007

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BUUNNI posted:

Fair point, but the price of the seatbelt system is added to the final cost of the car though, and most people will never even be in an accident, so why even bother wearing it?

The consequences of not wearing a seatbelt are frequently death. The consequence of not having applecare is maybe having to pay a bit more if you break your laptop, they are not comparable.

Paul MaudDib
May 3, 2006

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being sold a health insurance policy at general-population rates as a preexisting condition haver is still a huge financial boon even if you don’t end up needing it that particular year, end of discussion

whether or not that’s what applecare actually is irrelevant, he just disagree with the whole concept in general, because “what if you end up not needing it”. Ok but on average there’s a fairly high baseline chance of needing it, that’s why the policy exists.

And you don’t actually need to have a preexisting condition for it to be worth it, that’s just one case where the expected value is obviously much greater than the premium value. Any time the expected value of the benefit is more than the premiums you should take it, statistically speaking. That just normally doesn’t happen outside some social-policy edge cases like preexisting conditions, because insurers would lose money. If they did then statistically speaking you should take the policy!

like I just don’t quite know how to react to someone who thinks that insurance is fundamentally worthless in all circumstances because sometimes you don’t get to make the claim, even in the hypothetical scenario of a favorable policy being sold at a loss. Other than “take some courses I guess”.

Paul MaudDib fucked around with this message at 15:30 on Jun 27, 2023

BUUNNI
Jun 23, 2023

by Pragmatica

The Lord Bude posted:

The consequences of not wearing a seatbelt are frequently death. The consequence of not having applecare is maybe having to pay a bit more if you break your laptop, they are not comparable.

I completely agree with you on that, but the point I was making is that some people believe that because “odds of a catastrophic accident happening are very low” that they don’t have to protect themselves from it, but then are very sorry when something bad does happen. Whether it’s vaccines, seatbelts, or accident protection.

The Grumbles
Jun 5, 2006

Paul MaudDib posted:

drat I guess a surprising amount of people never took a stats course?

There’s nothing all that complex about the idea of being sold a policy that you are likely to end up needing and using at a significant discount to the expected value you receive from it, it just normally isn’t done because the insurer would lose money. But that’s the idea of social security / health insurance - what if you got sold a health insurance policy at an expected loss for the insurer (pre existing conditions) because it was good social policy? A significant amount of people are going to need it, but not quite everyone, and on a statistical basis if you will take out more on average than you are putting in then it’s a good idea to take it, because you are being given a valuable thing at a discount!

There is no “lottery ticket” argument either, just people who need the concept of expected value explained to them lol

Seek actual advice before planning your retirement pls m

Nobody in this thread is financially illiterate, they just find you really annoying. Everyone here understands how insurance works.

edit: my previous point being that there is a significant value add to apple care which is the ease and quality of service, which I honestly think if you're asking 'do I want this' is as useful, if not more useful a way to think about it than just weighing up repair costs vs insurance premiums. How stressful do you find the prospect of third party repairs? For me the answer is 'very' and so I don't mind getting apple care on certain devices.

The Grumbles fucked around with this message at 15:48 on Jun 27, 2023

Canned Sunshine
Nov 20, 2005

CAUTION: POST QUALITY UNDER CONSTRUCTION



TwoDice posted:

Sorry to interrupt expected value warranty chat but there is finally a tb4 kvm: https://sabrent.com/products/sb-tb4k

I ordered one sight unseen so we'll see how well it works.

I’m very interested in this, so please let us know how effective it is for you.

LionArcher
Mar 29, 2010


Me, oh there’s a bunch of new posts in the thread. Oh fun, what are people debating between? A slightly upgraded 15 inch air versus a refurbished 14 pro? Sees the conversation. Rolls eyes.

If you have a laptop, the couple hundred for Apple care is a smart move. Desktop less so, but depends on how long you plan on keeping the thing. The m1 studio base is $1549? In the refurbished store. Great deal for that desktop. But, Due to that weird fan noise issue, and the fact that the computers are only two years old and I doubt it has any long term effects, that’s an example where Apple care for it might be a good idea if long term the fans may effect something, versus the fact that the m2 version of the studio fixed this one annoying “bug/design issue).

jawbroken
Aug 13, 2007

messmate king

Paul MaudDib posted:

here is a slightly different version that backs a daily probability out of a "X% per year" and runs a bit more continuously than just a "1 repair per year" model. It does return eventually, just takes a few mins (or run it locally).

again, pick your own numbers - and bear in mind that "other damage" includes things like spills etc.

https://trinket.io/embed/python3/f7e51ca22a

you have a severe garbage in problem here where you're estimating that there's a 50% chance that you break a laptop screen at least once in 3 years. there's no way that is true for almost any person.

if you've been an apple customer for a reasonable sample period you can just go into your repair and purchase receipts and actually work it out instead of guessing. personally i've bought laptops, iPads, phones, watches etc over 15 years, never had AppleCare, and only paid for a repair once ($645 AUD for a top case replacement). in that same period i've had 20 free repairs or replacements for hardware defects. so i'm evidently going to continue not buying AppleCare.

Arivia
Mar 17, 2011

Paul MaudDib posted:

drat I guess a surprising amount of people never took a stats course?

I learned about probability and the Monty Hall problem (also the related Monty Haul problem) from the 1st edition Advanced Dungeons & Dragons Dungeon Master’s Guide. I’m not making this up.

Teabag Dome Scandal
Mar 19, 2002


If I plug the USB C cable from this Anker magsafe charging stand into my Macbook will it charge at the full 15W or do I need an external brick for that?

BlackMK4
Aug 23, 2006

wat.
Megamarm
It's kind of weird how when you buy something that has the GC offer that Apple marks it as a discount on the item and then charges you for the card itself.
For example:
MBP 14 w/ 12c / 32gb / 1tb - +$2799
Promotional Savings: -$150

but then you get charged separately $150 for the GC bundle

trilobite terror
Oct 20, 2007
BUT MY LIVELIHOOD DEPENDS ON THE FORUMS!

BlackMK4 posted:

It's kind of weird how when you buy something that has the GC offer that Apple marks it as a discount on the item and then charges you for the card itself.
For example:
MBP 14 w/ 12c / 32gb / 1tb - +$2799
Promotional Savings: -$150

but then you get charged separately $150 for the GC bundle

makes it easier to process a return in the event that you decide to return the computer but also buy something separately with the GC

Yeast
Dec 25, 2006

$1900 Grande Latte

the talent deficit posted:

apple used to pay bonuses to associates who convinced users to attach applecare. there's no way they were losing money on applecare at that point. i'm extremely skeptical they are losing money on it now

Back then AppleCare didn’t cover accidental damage, it was just an extended warranty.

sailormoon
Jun 28, 2014

fighting evil by moonlight
winning love by daylight


Is the base M2 Studio worth the extra dough over the M2 Pro Mac Mini? I’d be using it mostly for developing personal projects and probably some Plex, but nothing too crazy.

trilobite terror
Oct 20, 2007
BUT MY LIVELIHOOD DEPENDS ON THE FORUMS!

sailormoon posted:

Is the base M2 Studio worth the extra dough over the M2 Pro Mac Mini? I’d be using it mostly for developing personal projects and probably some Plex, but nothing too crazy.

https://youtu.be/fkhkm1wQS18

BobHoward
Feb 13, 2012

The only thing white people deserve is a bullet to their empty skull

sailormoon posted:

Is the base M2 Studio worth the extra dough over the M2 Pro Mac Mini? I’d be using it mostly for developing personal projects and probably some Plex, but nothing too crazy.

The differences:

6+4 CPU cores vs 8+4 CPU cores
16 GPU cores vs 30 GPU cores
16GB RAM vs 32GB RAM
1Gb ethernet vs 10Gb ethernet
$1299 vs $1999

You've not mentioned anything which would benefit from the nearly double GPU performance or the 10Gb ethernet. The extra two performance CPU cores are nice to have, but hardly essential for small development projects, and not needed at all for Plex.

The most important difference between the two is RAM. If you take the mini up to 32GB, it costs $400 more, and that's where I'd recommend upselling yourself to the Studio at only $300 more. But what you've described doesn't sound like a requirement for 32GB. Long as you aren't keeping hundreds of browser tabs open all the time, you should be fine.

benisntfunny
Dec 2, 2004
I'm Perfect.

The Lord Bude posted:

The important thing that everyone needs to understand about insurance in general is that it very rarely pays for itself - that’s kinda the point; it’s how they make money from it.

This is not entirely true. And if your insurance company was using that money as their means to profit they’d probably go bankrupt (and we see that happen).

A good insurance company makes money from investments on the pool of money they do have on hand.

For some lines of insurance (auto) that are more regulated they are even legally required in some states to “lose money” if they want to be in the market. But even if they pay out 1% more than they took in… let’s say in California, the billions of dollars accrued with a 9-10% investment return still gives them healthy earnings.

I’m not sure anyone cares about this in a Mac hardware thread and I’m certainly not defending lovely companies that deny claims and are generally assholes.

BlackMK4
Aug 23, 2006

wat.
Megamarm

Ok Comboomer posted:

makes it easier to process a return in the event that you decide to return the computer but also buy something separately with the GC

Makes sense, I figured it was also an accounting thing

Also, this 14" Pro screen is a big upgrade over the M1 Air screen. LG 5k looked better than the M1 Air in terms of color / contrast / brightness, the Pro screen makes the LG 5k look weak.

MrBond
Feb 19, 2004

FYI, Cheese NIPS are not the same as Cheez ITS
Personally, I’ve had mixed results on the value of AppleCare on its own but the value of AppleCare plus a credit card extended warranty (+4-5 years coverage), or the credit card extended warranty on its own (+1-2 years coverage) has definitely been worth it.

Canned Sunshine
Nov 20, 2005

CAUTION: POST QUALITY UNDER CONSTRUCTION



So a friend of mine sold me a Mac Pro 7,1 at a very, very heavy discount when he bought his Mac Studio M2 Ultra. I’m gonna juice the gently caress out of this thing. :getin:

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FlapYoJacks
Feb 12, 2009
MKBHD review of the new cheese-grater is up. The consensus is “get a studio unless you reallllly need those PCIE lanes.” Which is expected.

https://youtu.be/w2KbwC-s7pY

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