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AvesPKS posted:I remember a Marine general giving a speech in the late 2000s, talking about how circa 2001 each Marine carried about $500 worth of equipment, but a few years later that had climbed to $10000 worth of equipment. That's nothing, a year ago an average Russian soldier could be seen carrying a washing machine, a telly, a computer, several iphones...
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Jun 28, 2023 15:53
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It looks like Russia is apply camouflage to its naval vessels in the Black Sea in a response to naval drone attacks. http://www.hisutton.com/Russian-Navy-Deceptive-Camouflage.html quote:The Russian Navy has continued to apply deceptive camouflage to key ships in the Black Sea. The new camo was first reported on June 22 when the frigate Admiral Essen was observed in Sevastopol. Since then at least 3 more warships have been painted in a similar way. 
Mr. Apollo fucked around with this message at 16:20 on Jun 28, 2023 |
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Jun 28, 2023 16:18
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It occurs to me that in a weird way, Prigozhin does demonstrate that Putin's still unlikely to be overthrown for now because while he CAN be overthrown, there still isn't anyone who can be confident that they'll be able to keep hold of the throne after they chuck Putin off it. Which of course is by design, since prior to now Putin has been careful to make sure nobody has the popular support or connections to be able to hypothetically take over. The Russian state may be weak, but which of the Russian elites has the will to push it over? Prigozhin didn't - is there anyone who does? That being said now that Prigozhin has demonstrated it's possible, there might be a lot of rethinking of the risk/reward analysis involved in trying to accrue the necessary backing to stay at the top. Putin's likely to be extra-paranoid about any signs that anyone is doing so right now, though, so...?
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Jun 28, 2023 17:30
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whydirt posted:An episode of Veep but it’s the Russian military. Well this has my vote for new thread title.
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Jun 28, 2023 17:31
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Tomn posted:It occurs to me that in a weird way, Prigozhin does demonstrate that Putin's still unlikely to be overthrown for now because while he CAN be overthrown, there still isn't anyone who can be confident that they'll be able to keep hold of the throne after they chuck Putin off it. Which of course is by design, since prior to now Putin has been careful to make sure nobody has the popular support or connections to be able to hypothetically take over. The Russian state may be weak, but which of the Russian elites has the will to push it over? Prigozhin didn't - is there anyone who does? Of course, the corollary to this is that if Putin ever does kick the bucket, there is absolutely no one who can succeed him.
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Jun 28, 2023 17:38
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Haystack posted:Of course, the corollary to this is that if Putin ever does kick the bucket, there is absolutely no one who can succeed him. and like all organized crime rackets, once that happens the knives will come out and there will be a vicious war between his subordinates to succeed him. They won't call it a civil war but it will effectively be one.
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Jun 28, 2023 17:41
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Tomn posted:It occurs to me that in a weird way, Prigozhin does demonstrate that Putin's still unlikely to be overthrown for now because while he CAN be overthrown, there still isn't anyone who can be confident that they'll be able to keep hold of the throne after they chuck Putin off it. Which of course is by design, since prior to now Putin has been careful to make sure nobody has the popular support or connections to be able to hypothetically take over. The Russian state may be weak, but which of the Russian elites has the will to push it over? Prigozhin didn't - is there anyone who does? Previously it was pretty broadly accepted that nobody would ever overthrow Putin because his grip on power is so strong. That narrative is damaged since not only did someone try, the threat wasn't defeated due to Putin's strength. Sure, Prigozhin was the person who was in the best position to try this time, but 2 years ago you wouldn't have said that. Can you say in 2 years time nobody else will have risen up? Now we know it's possible and the rot in the Russian army is this bad, I really wouldn't want to bet against it.
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Jun 28, 2023 17:41
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Tomn posted:It occurs to me that in a weird way, Prigozhin does demonstrate that Putin's still unlikely to be overthrown for now because while he CAN be overthrown, there still isn't anyone who can be confident that they'll be able to keep hold of the throne after they chuck Putin off it. Which of course is by design, since prior to now Putin has been careful to make sure nobody has the popular support or connections to be able to hypothetically take over. The Russian state may be weak, but which of the Russian elites has the will to push it over? Prigozhin didn't - is there anyone who does? I think the key takeaway isn't so much that people see the throne up for grabs (since no one wants it) as it is that people see the throne doesn't matter as much as they thought it did. Prigozhin just dramatically pushed the envelope on the level of infighting you can get away with, I expect power struggles between personal fiefdoms are going to get much bloodier going forward.
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Jun 28, 2023 17:46
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I bet we see a lot fewer generals getting swapped out for other generals, too. People aren't going to accept removal.
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Jun 28, 2023 17:49
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Tomn posted:It occurs to me that in a weird way, Prigozhin does demonstrate that Putin's still unlikely to be overthrown for now because while he CAN be overthrown, there still isn't anyone who can be confident that they'll be able to keep hold of the throne after they chuck Putin off it. Which of course is by design, since prior to now Putin has been careful to make sure nobody has the popular support or connections to be able to hypothetically take over. The Russian state may be weak, but which of the Russian elites has the will to push it over? Prigozhin didn't - is there anyone who does? The traditional solution to this is a triumvirate, or troika. See Stalin, Kamenev and Zinovyev after Lenin passed, and Malenkov, Beria and Molotov after Stalin. And then again after Khruschev was removed. Who could they be? No idea, but they need to have influence among the siloviks, the party, and the people. Some charisma is needed. In the end it could even be Putin's closest loyalists if in behind curtain talks decided that the granpa has become too demented to lead.
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Jun 28, 2023 17:50
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A "new" Russian tank has appeared... https://twitter.com/ConeOfArc/status/1673779982714150914?t=_yCJyzbKPM-eDCKh-mlADA&s=19
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Jun 28, 2023 18:06
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Charliegrs posted:Everyone's always talking about how bad Russia has performed in this war but honestly are they really doing that bad? Sure the blitzkrieg into Kyiv was a total failure but they seem to be holding their own against a military that has gotten a ton of high end western hardware and training. You're not wrong, the entirety of the Western war machine is sending everything they can spare and they still can't make hardware fas enough. Industrial powers like the US and Germany don't seem capable of keeping up with the needs of the Ukrainian military. You can see it in the thread, the small trickle of 14 tanks here, some javelins there, and always a need for more. More f-16s, more tanks, more everything. Russian, meanwhile, is shouldering this war on it's own dime. It's buying a few drones from Iran or whatever, but this is largely a Russian enterprise with Russian tanks and artillery and a seemingly bottomless supply of shells. The one thing Russia does appear to be running out of is mercenaries. The weird happenings over the weekend may spell an end to the practice of using mercenaries to absorb losses. Normally you let the mercenaries do all the most dangerous and deadly poo poo because nobody cares when they die, and I guess that works as long as they will shut up and take it. Now it will be Russian soldiers filling those roles, taking those losses, which means domestic support could weaken as caskets come home. Will it be enough for Putin to give up and turn around? I have no idea.
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Jun 28, 2023 18:08
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Young Freud posted:A "new" Russian tank has appeared... Ok I was going to make a jokey guess at this but everyone responding to that tweet seems to know more about tanks than me and they're all going "What the hell is that?" so I'm just going to re-iterate: What the hell is that? 
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Jun 28, 2023 18:17
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Cpt_Obvious posted:You're not wrong, the entirety of the Western war machine is sending everything they can spare and they still can't make hardware fas enough. Industrial powers like the US and Germany don't seem capable of keeping up with the needs of the Ukrainian military. You can see it in the thread, the small trickle of 14 tanks here, some javelins there, and always a need for more. More f-16s, more tanks, more everything. Russian, meanwhile, is shouldering this war on it's own dime. It's buying a few drones from Iran or whatever, but this is largely a Russian enterprise with Russian tanks and artillery and a seemingly bottomless supply of shells. I like how you conveniently ignored that Russia is drawing down decades worth of already manufactured equipment dating back to the Soviet Union, while the West (or at least the US) is essentially sending crumbs compared to its overall military power. Also, there definitely doesn't seem to be a "bottomless supply of shells" any longer on the Russian side, although I guess they were hoping all of the useful idiots, dupes, and shills in the West would demand their governments give up during the first year. Do you actually believe that the heroic Arsenal of Authoritarianism is single-handedly out-producing the decadent West?
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Jun 28, 2023 18:19
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Cpt_Obvious posted:Russian, meanwhile, is shouldering this war on it's own dime. It's buying a few drones from Iran or whatever, but this is largely a Russian enterprise with Russian tanks and artillery and a seemingly bottomless supply of shells. The basic mechanic of this war has been roughly a century of accumulated Russian and Soviet hardware going up against NATO's spare change drawer / leftovers pile, and losing. Russia is now actively running out of that accumulated century's worth of hardware, and they have very limited ability to replace it, because they aren't the USSR any more. That is not good for Russia. This war has already functionally broken them as a military power. The only question left now is how hard the collapse is when it hits them.
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Jun 28, 2023 18:21
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^^^^^ Also about a good chunk of that pile in Ukraine. Speaking of Russian supplies, this is relevant: https://twitter.com/verekerrichard1/status/1674036312129585152
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Jun 28, 2023 18:23
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DarklyDreaming posted:Ok I was going to make a jokey guess at this but everyone responding to that tweet seems to know more about tanks than me and they're all going "What the hell is that?" so I'm just going to re-iterate: It looks like a decoy of a western style tank (probably meant to be a leopard with it's frontal applique armor). The markings on the hill are Russian, but it makes little sense why Russians would make mock ups of Ukrainian gear - so it'd say it's either a captured Russian tank turned by Ukraine into a decoy, or maybe Russians are doing this to fool Ukrainians into thinking they are looking at a friendly tank?
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Jun 28, 2023 18:23
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DarklyDreaming posted:Ok I was going to make a jokey guess at this but everyone responding to that tweet seems to know more about tanks than me and they're all going "What the hell is that?" so I'm just going to re-iterate: My first thought was that field experience had proven that tanks need T-Rex arms to survive in a modern battlefield. My second thought goes to some sort of thermal camoflage, that bustle extention might - when the turret is facing forward - cover the engine from being seen with thermal cameras. Or it could be ERA. Or both.
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Jun 28, 2023 18:25
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:The basic mechanic of this war has been roughly a century of accumulated Russian and Soviet hardware going up against NATO's spare change drawer / leftovers pile, and losing. Putin also had a hefty war chest made from selling oil and gas at a great profit in the good days. That chest is going to be depleted soon (or it might already be, Russian federation's economy is not very transparent). Putin already went to the pensioners' funds before the war even started, if they start feeling the effects of the war then it's all over.
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Jun 28, 2023 18:33
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DarklyDreaming posted:Ok I was going to make a jokey guess at this but everyone responding to that tweet seems to know more about tanks than me and they're all going "What the hell is that?" so I'm just going to re-iterate: Someone figured it out, apparently it the first prototype turret for the cancelled Black Eagle tank
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Jun 28, 2023 18:40
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Cpt_Obvious posted:The one thing Russia does appear to be running out of is mercenaries. The weird happenings over the weekend may spell an end to the practice of using mercenaries to absorb losses. Normally you let the mercenaries do all the most dangerous and deadly poo poo because nobody cares when they die, and I guess that works as long as they will shut up and take it. Now it will be Russian soldiers filling those roles, taking those losses, which means domestic support could weaken as caskets come home. I'm not sure this is really true these days. As far as I know the most common use case for mercenaries in actual wars in the modern era, especially in Third World countries, is having them provide a core of highly trained, experienced soldiers from first-class militaries coming in to act as advisors, trainers, and if necessary an elite core of well-equipped fighting power better than what the local budget can provide - that's why you wanted the mercenaries in the first place, you can't afford to permanently raise something with that kind of combat power but you can afford to hire them in short bursts in an emergency. They usually can't be considered cheap and disposable, not to the kinds of governments hiring them, and in any event are more often there to provide expertise than to act as meat for the grinder. Wagner is an exception but Wagner isn't really a pure mercenary outfit anyways, rather an unofficial arm of the Russian government. Prior to the war they existed to act as plausible deniability for Russian operations, and during the war as far as anyone can tell they essentially acted as a parallel recruitment track that allowed Russia to mobilize more manpower without the political costs of drafting (it was a voluntary choice, not forced, see?). As well as being Prigozhin's personal fiefdom for his own political influence battles, but, well, we've seen where that goes. And in any event the idea that mercenaries kept Russians from seeing caskets come home is utterly absurd. There have been PLENTY of Russian military dead since the war started, Wagner was never more than a fraction of the size of the Russian military in Ukraine. Like what, you think that only Wagner had been taking casualties or something?
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Jun 28, 2023 18:42
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Back Hack posted:Someone figured it out, apparently it the first prototype turret for the cancelled Black Eagle tank That looks believable but it still doesn’t explain the twin beaks.
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Jun 28, 2023 18:44
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Young Freud posted:A "new" Russian tank has appeared... Maybe an attempt to block drone-dropped grenades?
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Jun 28, 2023 18:54
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ought ten posted:That looks believable but it still doesn’t explain the twin beaks. They were told that American tanks have tusks
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Jun 28, 2023 18:55
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ought ten posted:That looks believable but it still doesn’t explain the twin beaks. For holding insanely thick gun mantel armored plates that they never ended up making.
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Jun 28, 2023 18:58
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They fold up to make the left shin of Voltron.
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Jun 28, 2023 19:03
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Back Hack posted:Someone figured it out, apparently it the first prototype turret for the cancelled Black Eagle tank If Russia is breaking that stuff out they are in likely a much worse status than most probably realize. You aren’t breaking out sketchy, very old prototype equipment unless you have no other options. I think it is a legitimate question soon of how much more equipment can Russia afford to lose and how much longer can they keep things going for.
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Jun 28, 2023 19:05
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Djarum posted:If Russia is breaking that stuff out they are in likely a much worse status than most probably realize. I think all equipment is taking attrition but there are definitely some categories that are in worse spots than others right? Tanks seem like things that Russian front line units are struggling with but it's unclear to me if they are facing similar issues elsewhere (ex artillery, shells, etc). I think any further offensive actions by the Russians are probably going to be very difficult, but I'm not sure if we'll ever see a collapse where the defensive front runs out of shells or anything like that. I guess it's like the reports of Russians running out of cruise missiles, there might be an element of truth to it, but they are still capable of prolonged bombardment of Ukrainian infrastructure (by mixing in Iranian drones, using antiship missiles on land, using antiair missiles for ground attack). Good thread on minefields: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1673949202068434945.html It seems like if you don't give a poo poo about post war usability of land and are willing to lay km of minefields, its kinda a challenge to get through. WarpedLichen fucked around with this message at 19:18 on Jun 28, 2023 |
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Jun 28, 2023 19:12
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WarpedLichen posted:I think all equipment is taking attrition but there are definitely some categories that are in worse spots than others right? Given that simple dumb shells are relatively easy to make, even under sanctions, I don't think Russia will ever straight-up run out of shells - but they might be forced to adjust their use rate to match production rates, which probably isn't going to match the intensity of their artillery at the beginning of the war.
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Jun 28, 2023 19:17
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Nenonen posted:My second thought goes to some sort of thermal camoflage, that bustle extention might - when the turret is facing forward - cover the engine from being seen with thermal cameras. I think there was something vaguely like this in a recent Jack Watling podcast. Russians redirecting exhaust to throw off ATGM targetting, or something like that. I may be misremembering.
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Jun 28, 2023 19:20
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Young Freud posted:A "new" Russian tank has appeared... Besides those weird protrusions in the front, it looks like maybe they slapped some ERA on the top? That would seem logical with all the top attack weapons like Javelin that Ukraine has. Although I'm not sure if it will make a difference in practice.
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Jun 28, 2023 19:42
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Tomn posted:It occurs to me that in a weird way, Prigozhin does demonstrate that Putin's still unlikely to be overthrown for now because while he CAN be overthrown, there still isn't anyone who can be confident that they'll be able to keep hold of the throne after they chuck Putin off it. Which of course is by design, since prior to now Putin has been careful to make sure nobody has the popular support or connections to be able to hypothetically take over. The Russian state may be weak, but which of the Russian elites has the will to push it over? Prigozhin didn't - is there anyone who does? power doesn't care if things descend into chaos. if putin is weakened, powers can start nibbling at the edges of russia, internally things may shift and collapse, maybe it takes 3 more leaders before one isn't killed in the process of gaining power, who knows. or maybe the systemic apathy in russia is so strong nothing will change and putin will live out his days making everyone miserable.
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Jun 28, 2023 19:43
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Charliegrs posted:Besides those weird protrusions in the front, it looks like maybe they slapped some ERA on the top? That would seem logical with all the top attack weapons like Javelin that Ukraine has. Although I'm not sure if it will make a difference in practice. Yeah, they put up some ERA on top of a cope cage, but I don't think it'll stop the tandem HEAT warhead from blowing through it and melting the turret crew.
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Jun 28, 2023 19:45
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Hannibal Rex posted:I think there was something vaguely like this in a recent Jack Watling podcast. Russians redirecting exhaust to throw off ATGM targetting, or something like that. I may be misremembering. You are not mistaken, that was really reported earlier - as an attempt to fool Javelins though. Which is not thermal camo, however - it just moves the exhaust thermal signature away from the tank itself so anyone with a thermal camera would still spot it easily. And I doubt that the diversion works well either, based on what I know about Javelin. This is what thermal camoflage looks like:  https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1571575627496722434
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Jun 28, 2023 19:45
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CNN reporting Prigo wanted to capture Shoigu and Gherasimov but it didn't work out so he sent the troops on a road trip https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/28/europe/wagner-prigozhin-rebellion-capture-attempt-intl/index.html
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Jun 28, 2023 19:56
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Nenonen posted:You are not mistaken, that was really reported earlier - as an attempt to fool Javelins though. Which is not thermal camo, however - it just moves the exhaust thermal signature away from the tank itself so anyone with a thermal camera would still spot it easily. And I doubt that the diversion works well either, based on what I know about Javelin. Looks like they just draped a bedsheet over it, can't imagine that'll be showing up in movies or video games anytime soon. Charliegrs posted:Besides those weird protrusions in the front, it looks like maybe they slapped some ERA on the top? That would seem logical with all the top attack weapons like Javelin that Ukraine has. Although I'm not sure if it will make a difference in practice. For real though it looks to me, a random idiot on the internet, like a tank on top of a slightly bigger tank and I love it and can't wait for it to be captured by a random farmer.
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Jun 28, 2023 20:09
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Mr. Apollo posted:It looks like Russia is apply camouflage to its naval vessels in the Black Sea in a response to naval drone attacks. Wouldn't it be better to paint the water next to it like the deck of the ship? So a drone might bomb the water.
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Jun 28, 2023 20:15
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WarpedLichen posted:I think all equipment is taking attrition but there are definitely some categories that are in worse spots than others right? Russia is most certainly out of their more advanced missiles. The reason why they have moved to use their stocks of anti-ship, anti-air and Iranian drones is to try and keep that capability for as long as possible. Really though they are no where near as useful as the more advanced options as you see the random targets hit. Really though as more and more material gets destroyed the harder it gets for them. Frankly if the entire front wasn’t a massive minefield right now things would no doubt look very, very ugly for them.
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Jun 28, 2023 20:23
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paint it to look like a line of Honda Civics
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Jun 28, 2023 20:24
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Clickbaity title since the arrest is explicitly mentioned only on telegram channel, probably going to see something concrete leaking tomorrow if it is that bad https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1674134663579815959 quote:General Sergey Surovikin, deputy commander of the united group of Russian troops in Ukraine, has been arrested. This information was reported to The Moscow Times by two sources close to the Defense Ministry's apparatus. Officially, the department has not commented on this information in any way. Couldnt be happening to a nicer guy indeed
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Jun 28, 2023 20:27
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