(Thread IKs:
fatherboxx)
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Nix Panicus posted:The GPS breaks due to the force of firing. The shell is more expensive than just saturating the area with conventional shells. The shell has less explosives because it has to carry a GPS. The artillery platform has to have a bunch of dumb bullshit attached to it for positioning, increasing weight, power consumption, and necessitating maintenance. Jamming exists. Precision munitions are a grift for the stupid. Can you explain why you're qualified to make these statements? Are you a ballistics engineer or something? Or is your source "trust me bro"?
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Jun 29, 2023 07:05
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What would be the point of a GPS guided round if it broke upon firing? That makes zero sense. I'm sure a ton of testing went into developing the Excalibur round so that the GPS guidance system survived firing, that's also why these things are so expensive. Engineering/testing cost and low production numbers.
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Jun 29, 2023 07:18
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Nix Panicus posted:The GPS breaks due to the force of firing. The shell is more expensive than just saturating the area with conventional shells. The shell has less explosives because it has to carry a GPS. The artillery platform has to have a bunch of dumb bullshit attached to it for positioning, increasing weight, power consumption, and necessitating maintenance. Jamming exists. Precision munitions are a grift for the stupid. High g resistant electronics is a solved issue. The GPS is actually quite small.
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Jun 29, 2023 07:24
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spankmeister posted:Can you explain why you're qualified to make these statements? Are you a ballistics engineer or something? Or is your source "trust me bro"? He's trolling, best to ignore him.
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Jun 29, 2023 07:34
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Nix Panicus posted:Russia has been running out of shells since May of 2022, yet they still keep raining down. Artillery shells aren't hard to make, especially if you arent trying to stuff a GPS unit inside because your military is wholly owned by corporations trying to jack up the cost without regard for effectiveness. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rostec
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Jun 29, 2023 07:52
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mrfart posted:He's trolling, best to ignore him. tbf, people this bad at recognizing trolling should be trolled EasilyConfused posted:Am I misunderstanding this or did it take the Russian Navy more than year to go "oh right, camouflage exists?" camouflage isn't that vital anymore when there are radars and satellites
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Jun 29, 2023 07:58
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The GPS component is actually so sturdy that sometimes surgeons find them from soldiers' wounds and they can be reused.
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Jun 29, 2023 09:25
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Nenonen posted:The GPS component is actually so sturdy that sometimes surgeons find them from soldiers' wounds and they can be reused. I thought those components turned out to be from the covid vaccines Seriously though, is that actually true?
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Jun 29, 2023 09:28
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Maera Sior posted:This assumes satellites only work in the visual range (they do not). It also assumes that this camo is effective in the visual spectrum and that Ukraine are even using AI to analyze these images. The fog of war is always going to mean this sort of adaptation is based on assumptions about the enemy. That doesn't mean this isn't an interesting attempt at real world battlefield AI camo - unless you've got another theory for why they're doing this? It doesn't seem like it would be very effective vs humans, or that a drone hitting one warship instead of another due to pilot misidentification would matter much at all.
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Jun 29, 2023 09:32
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Fragrag posted:Seriously though, is that actually true? Sure, it's often recovered along with their progenoid gland!
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Jun 29, 2023 09:33
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https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1674334125090648066?t=jWhOtOw6iJ0f7VZBtPq4pA&s=19
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Jun 29, 2023 10:09
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Is all this kinda hinting at purges beneath the surface (so far)
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Jun 29, 2023 11:03
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My impression is that the military authorities who were sympathetic to wagner were the more competent and ruthless ones. This purge could be great for Ukraine.
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Jun 29, 2023 11:21
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Not entirely sure about how competent they might have been overall, but they were the ones who wanted to change things and it's hard to imagine changing the Russian army for worse. Iirc "general Armageddon" who is allegedly in deep poo poo now was originally dismissed in Ukraine because he wanted to do crazy things like retreat to defensible positions and consolidate.
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Jun 29, 2023 11:41
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fatherboxx posted:https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1674334125090648066?t=jWhOtOw6iJ0f7VZBtPq4pA&s=19 If that's actually Venediktov he is also saying earlier that Surovikin hasn't been heard from by his family for a few days...
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Jun 29, 2023 12:12
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There's definitely going to be purges after anunsuccessful coup targeting people with ties to Wagner. https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1674328723330420736
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Jun 29, 2023 12:55
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Yeah, it feels like the Wagner sympathisers getting purged were the relatively competent ones who most bristled at being under Shoigu
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Jun 29, 2023 12:56
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Chalks posted:It also assumes that this camo is effective in the visual spectrum and that Ukraine are even using AI to analyze these images. The fog of war is always going to mean this sort of adaptation is based on assumptions about the enemy. They seem to be stuck in a "Throw everything at the wall and see what sticks" position, plus someone can point to it and say they did something.
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Jun 29, 2023 13:32
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Camoflauge never looks very convincing up close. At a distance, it can make life pretty hard on, say, people squinting through mediocre cameras on a drone boat.
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Jun 29, 2023 13:33
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But they have plenty of satellite/plane data to know what's out there, and no new ships are arriving. Do we have any navy experts here?
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Jun 29, 2023 13:37
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ChubbyChecker posted:camouflage isn't that vital anymore when there are radars and satellites At least for ground forces, the value of camoflauge had been re-learned in this war. It's not possible to be invisible or anything like that : something always has a sensor good morning enough to see you. But you can skew the odds a little bit,, or require your enemy to use a more valuable asset woth better sensors, or put enough doubt into what they're seeing to cause them to target a lesser, but more certain target.
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Jun 29, 2023 13:38
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painting the ships likely isn't meant to fool the fanciest spy satellite the US operates it's meant to fool Ukrainian recon and surveillance tools, which are more likely to be drones operating at significantly long ranges (not a navy expert)
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Jun 29, 2023 13:43
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Ynglaur posted:At least for ground forces, the value of camoflauge had been re-learned in this war. It's not possible to be invisible or anything like that : something always has a sensor good morning enough to see you. But you can skew the odds a little bit,, or require your enemy to use a more valuable asset woth better sensors, or put enough doubt into what they're seeing to cause them to target a lesser, but more certain target. I'm thinking this might be about tempting your enemy to use a less powerful/less advanced weapon that can be (theoretically) countered by the more powerful ships.
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Jun 29, 2023 13:58
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OddObserver posted:If that's actually Venediktov he is also saying earlier that Surovikin hasn't been heard from by his family for a few days... It is him. For whatever reason he has this weird handle across all his social media. He's still on good terms with some people close to Putin, so outside of official statements, he's probably the closest you can get to a reliable source on this.
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Jun 29, 2023 13:59
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Maera Sior posted:I'm thinking this might be about tempting your enemy to use a less powerful/less advanced weapon that can be (theoretically) countered by the more powerful ships. Sure, maybe. A lot of deception is geared towards casting doubt or forcing your opponent to make decisions constantly.
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Jun 29, 2023 14:00
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Ynglaur posted:At least for ground forces, the value of camoflauge had been re-learned in this war. It's not possible to be invisible or anything like that : something always has a sensor good morning enough to see you. But you can skew the odds a little bit,, or require your enemy to use a more valuable asset woth better sensors, or put enough doubt into what they're seeing to cause them to target a lesser, but more certain target. How much of this is due to the relatively static nature of the war?
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Jun 29, 2023 14:03
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The paint could just be a morale measure - sailors idling in port are getting antsy at feeling vulnerable, the bosses put them to work painting camouflage on their ships. Paint is cheap, soldiers are kept busy, and they feel like they're doing something that might help them in a fight or an attack. If the camouflage actually provides some protection against a bombing raid or drone attack, well that's just a nice bonus.
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Jun 29, 2023 14:22
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eh it's all intended to make the ships look smaller and less important, that's definitely not some incidental make work
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Jun 29, 2023 14:28
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The Russians should have a lot of captured examples of the Ukrainian drone boats so they should know what sort of sensors those have. If all they got are relatively low res cameras, I could see the paint being very effective on the approach. Edit: OSINTtechnical linked this interesting account of Russian telegram channels complaining about military bureaucracy and requiring a parallel civilian development path: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1674086224917667843.html quote:This is a true story, by the way. And that's why those who really do something, refuse the help. They organize themselves, make their own products, find testing areas and raw materials. Volunteers collect money and take products to the front on their own. Its unsurprising that volunteers and private industry are getting in on supplying the Russian army (I think a lot of troops were supposed to be supplied by the local governments who were wildly unprepared), but seeing attempts to make these recognized fail because the volunteers are wary of incompetence is funny. WarpedLichen fucked around with this message at 15:08 on Jun 29, 2023 |
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Jun 29, 2023 14:52
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MikeC posted:How much of this is due to the relatively static nature of the war? Even in an offensive, there are lots of times people and vehicles aren't moving. And camouflage helps even with moving targets, albeit less. It's all about skewing the odds in your favor for relatively little investment. If your tank is painted traffic cone orange, maybe a person without optics could spot it 2000m away in the forest. If it's dark green, you're down to 800m. That's an extreme example, but meters and seconds matter.
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Jun 29, 2023 15:28
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Ynglaur posted:Even in an offensive, there are lots of times people and vehicles aren't moving. And camouflage helps even with moving targets, albeit less. It's all about skewing the odds in your favor for relatively little investment. If your tank is painted traffic cone orange, maybe a person without optics could spot it 2000m away in the forest. If it's dark green, you're down to 800m. That's an extreme example, but meters and seconds matter. Traffic cone orange doesn't seem like a good choice for camouflage, I hope they change that soon!
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Jun 29, 2023 15:33
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But if we paint our tanks traffic cone orange, maybe they'll just think we're hunting really big deer and leave us alone.
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Jun 29, 2023 15:35
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KillHour posted:But if we paint our tanks traffic cone orange, maybe they'll just think we're hunting really big deer and leave us alone. "That thing is bright orange, like they want us to hit it. Let's target something else."
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Jun 29, 2023 15:36
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FMguru posted:The paint could just be a morale measure - sailors idling in port are getting antsy at feeling vulnerable, the bosses put them to work painting camouflage on their ships. Paint is cheap, soldiers are kept busy, and they feel like they're doing something that might help them in a fight or an attack. If the camouflage actually provides some protection against a bombing raid or drone attack, well that's just a nice bonus. "If we paint a target on our ships it's like reverse psychology, no one's gonna want to shoot at them."
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Jun 29, 2023 16:11
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I've heard that orange is the new black, sounds like a good camo! Really, if hunters use it and animals don't see them...
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Jun 29, 2023 16:16
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LifeSunDeath posted:"If we paint a target on our ships it's like reverse psychology, no one's gonna want to shoot at them." If we painted our ships capsized and on fire...
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Jun 29, 2023 16:16
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KillHour posted:But if we paint our tanks traffic cone orange, maybe they'll just think we're hunting really big deer and leave us alone. Stupidly enough in Finland the hunter's required high-vis clothing color was changed from generally yellow to really bright orange because the yellow color kept blending too well to the autumn colors.
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Jun 29, 2023 16:20
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Maera Sior posted:But they have plenty of satellite/plane data to know what's out there, and no new ships are arriving. The big problem I see with the effectiveness of this camouflage is that they have all the vessel tracks. So vessel goes to the pier, they paint the bow and stern to make it look smaller… but it’s still known what vessel went to that pier because the track still exists. I don’t see this being particularly effective unless they can disrupt the tracks which isn’t going to happen unless they can disrupt the satellites. I don’t think this will even trick commercial AIS tracking companies (which can track by satellite when AIS is off but generally don’t make that free / publicly facing (I know they can do this because the CEO of marine traffic told me they can).
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Jun 29, 2023 16:27
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Der Kyhe posted:Stupidly enough in Finland the hunter's required high-vis clothing color was changed from generally yellow to really bright orange because the yellow color kept blending too well to the autumn colors. I thought the main reason for using orange hi-vis in hunting applications is that deer and boar are color blind to orange, but not yellow.
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Jun 29, 2023 16:30
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Bar Ran Dun posted:The big problem I see with the effectiveness of this camouflage is that they have all the vessel tracks. So vessel goes to the pier, they paint the bow and stern to make it look smaller… but it’s still known what vessel went to that pier because the track still exists. I don’t see this being particularly effective unless they can disrupt the tracks which isn’t going to happen unless they can disrupt the satellites. I mean don't we lose track of vessels at sea quite often? Ships can turn off or spoof AIS and in poor weather conditions, it's very possible to lose track of ships? The body of water might make a difference here, I'm no expert on the Black Sea but you often hear about unknown vessels in reporting. It might not fool satellites on a clear day while docked, but I'm not sure its really supposed to.
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Jun 29, 2023 16:38
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