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(Thread IKs: Stereotype)
 
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Bob Ross Nuke Test
Jul 12, 2016

by Games Forum
"From pole to pole, the winds of change are here. The climate crisis is no longer a future problem. It's happening now, right before our eyes."

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cash crab
Apr 5, 2015

all the time i am eating from the trashcan. the name of this trashcan is ideology


it's fine

1glitch0
Sep 4, 2018

I DON'T GIVE A CRAP WHAT SHE BELIEVES THE HARRY POTTER BOOKS CHANGED MY LIFE #HUFFLEPUFF

Stereotype posted:

apparently i can't put someone on probation if they are already on probation? or maybe it will just go through in 4 hours when you are off probation. excited to update my knowledge here

good mod. rare as a gust of fresh air i the northeast!

Cup Runneth Over
Aug 8, 2009

She said life's
Too short to worry
Life's too long to wait
It's too short
Not to love everybody
Life's too long to hate


Rime posted:

Faster than expected!

that's our thread motto

err
Apr 11, 2005

I carry my own weight no matter how heavy this shit gets...

Well that doesn't seem well

Cup Runneth Over
Aug 8, 2009

She said life's
Too short to worry
Life's too long to wait
It's too short
Not to love everybody
Life's too long to hate


err posted:

Well that doesn't seem well

It's not that bad yet

Homeless Friend
Jul 16, 2007

its 75 degrees heres. i dont see sh*t before my eyes....

Soggy Muffin
Jul 29, 2003

Cold on a Cob posted:

i've had to completely nope out of social media at this point too, the doom scroll got to be too much

not memes about how hosed we are either, those are just bau for me at this point

i'm talking about posts from my family in AB where they make fun of environmentalists, complain about the wildfire smoke, and post about life milestones my nieces and nephews are going through like graduating high school and stuff

idk how you compartmentalize if you're actually a parent and believe even a fraction of what i believe tbh

Honestly I feel like an alien sometimes when I’m with family or out and about in public. It’s like people are just on a completely different wavelength and act as if everything is fine. My climate activist sister just had a baby, we talked about it before hand and she said humans have always lived in strife, and I had to tell her that was strife in a stable climate. Once the climate goes, everything goes with it. Humans have never experienced the level of suffering that is about to come…

Car Hater
May 7, 2007

wolf. bike.
Wolf. Bike.
Wolf! Bike!
WolfBike!
WolfBike!
ARROOOOOO!
Agriculture is something that happens far away and is done by poor people, you don't need it to live you doomer

Laterite
Mar 14, 2007

It's Gutfest '89
Grimey Drawer
i'm raising my kids in a doomed world and honestly it owns

tristeham
Jul 31, 2022

Rime posted:

Maybe one day westerners will wake up and realize you cannot negotiate with China in good faith, you cannot "democratize" it by being nice to it, and that our downfall is going to stem from failing to firewall it like North Korea when we had the chance - before a Chinese-American scientist defected to build their nuclear program. The past century has demonstrated succinctly that the singular goal in that nation is the global domination of the Han cultural identity by any means necessary. Forced conversion, genocide, slavery, theft, kidnapping, extortion, distribution of lethal drugs - they have no limits and we do not share an ethical or moral philosophy on which to build an equal diplomatic relationship.

Any cursory look at China's actions and motivations during the past century should make it clear that Anyone who deals in good faith with an agent of this regime is in peril. It will not be reciprocated.

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

(USER WAS BANNED FOR THIS POST)

incredible

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

Orions Lord
May 21, 2012

Rime posted:



The industry is largely blind to this state of affairs and forging ahead with completely insane bullshit such as 200m tall onshore towers, cable stayed at the midsection, with 90m+ long blades. The cost to build or service those would be astronomical, for a variety of reasons such as crawler cranes that tall not existing, but the industry is broadly stuck in a "get bigger, faster" arms race driven by engineers lost up their own rear end in a top hat with no hope of ever finding a way out and kowtowing to the demands of an oblivious C-Suite who think the only way to achieve a mythical "return to profitability" :airquote: is to sell the biggest unit possible.



https://www.heavyliftnews.com/mammoet-in-group-developing-wtg-building-system-for-200m-towers/

The initial monopiles for the offshore windmills came from China but required extensive rewelding to meet quality standards.

Despite the substantial costs of windmills, their profitability becomes evident when we consider the power they deliver in comparison to the cost of energy, even if their efficiency ranges from just 20% to 40%. These windmills can generate a significant amount of profit in the long run.

Wakko
Jun 9, 2002
Faboo!

tristeham posted:

incredible

real fukkin weird bein the guy who shows up to post solely when there a rime post or thread drama. you got a script that alerts you or just mashin that button to read new posts every day just in case

Stereotype
Apr 24, 2010

College Slice

tristeham posted:

incredible

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

stop making me be a moderator. don't drag your posting quarrels here

Marenghi
Oct 16, 2008

Don't trust the liberals,
they will betray you

Rime posted:

No, China doesn't publish any data on those lines whatsoever, lol. All I have is watching Goldwind fall on its face the first time it had to compete in the big leagues instead of with MinYang and other similarly state-controlled entities in a state-controlled market. There are only 7 countries in the world which publicly report project-level annual windenergy production data. Specifically, the USA, Turkey, Denmark, Switzerland, Australia, the Dominican Republic and Brazil.

Goldwind made a huge push to try and enter the North American & Australian markets, hugely undercutting every other manufacturer with bidding and donated a modern top of the line unit to Texas A&M as a training facility. Poached a lot of top talent from other OEM's to try and build out a domestic presence. The turbines turned out to be phenomenally poo poo and rife with component failures, which is unusual as they are direct-drive and usually those are more stable. (Goldwind acquired a majority share of the german R&D company Vensys and "acquired" a bunch of Enercon features via ??? to develop their platform). I mean so phenomenally poo poo that several major projects which Goldwind had won the bidding for subsequently dropped them and went with Enercon or other manufacturers. I spoke to a lot of techs who subsequently left and it sounded pretty extremely wild, would never want to go near one.

I'm not casting shade on China in favor of (non-existent) glorious Euro OEM's, to be clear, I'm pointing out that they aren't going to sweep in with superior technology and clean up when dumpster fires such as SGRE and others finally implode. They're worse, big "melt your plows to pimp the steel production targets vibes from the pace of installation. Time will tell I guess. :shrug:

That is weird about their direct drive, I thought it was meant to be much better due to reduced maintenance and failure points by the fact they don't have gearing. Direct drive has an obvious flaw in the west, it requires a lot more rare earth magnets with the vast majority of those coming from China.

Is it a bit like Solar where that used to be obviously poo poo when it came from China so it was better to buy western made ones. Then eventually they had to impose Solar tariffs as they turned out to be not as poo poo as they were made out to be. And now you shouldn't by them even though they're cheaper and better because it uses Uighar slave labour.

And saw it play out similarly with other Chinese technology. Smartphones, Laptops, and their semiconductor industry. Starts out people are told it's poo poo so you shouldn't buy it. Then as people give it a chance and realize it works just as well for cheaper, they start getting sanctioned for one reason or another.

Marenghi has issued a correction as of 12:02 on Jun 30, 2023

two-time fee
Jan 13, 2022

tuyop posted:

Instead of "feasibility" or "reasonableness" as our starting point, we should probably start with an ethical framework or moral imperative and then design policy around that. Feasibility must serve our values, not the other way around.


It's not because we could (few hundred of years ago), that we should; I mean come on, try and be reasonable !

Fell Mood
Jul 2, 2022

A terrible Fell look!
Rime had some bad takes in the past, which they paid for, therefore everything else they say is also wrong, therefore the biosphere isn't collapsing and the wind industry isn't a sham, therefore I'm not going to cook to death in the next 5 years as I have to work outside in this poo poo.

Honestly pretty relieved. I always knew deep down that the people telling me bad things were themselves bad people, otherwise they wouldn't be telling me bad things!

blatman
May 10, 2009

14 inc dont mez


i havent seen any evidence that it wasnt actually the windmills making rimes previously problematic posts

Chad Sexington
May 26, 2005

I think he made a beautiful post and did a great job and he is good.

Soggy Muffin posted:

Honestly I feel like an alien sometimes when I’m with family or out and about in public. It’s like people are just on a completely different wavelength and act as if everything is fine. My climate activist sister just had a baby, we talked about it before hand and she said humans have always lived in strife, and I had to tell her that was strife in a stable climate. Once the climate goes, everything goes with it. Humans have never experienced the level of suffering that is about to come…

How should people be acting by your estimation? Hoarding poo poo? Super gluing themselves to works of art? Just sobbing in a Denny's parking lot?

The future is something you contemplate with dread in your heart alone late at night. Let people have their treats and their children and their false hope in the now. They might not have the chance to have them tomorrow.

MightyBigMinus
Jan 26, 2020

Chad Sexington posted:

The future is something you contemplate with dread in your heart alone late at night.
will that fit? i dunno if there's a character limit on the thread title

TehSaurus
Jun 12, 2006

Chad Sexington posted:

How should people be acting by your estimation? Hoarding poo poo? Super gluing themselves to works of art? Just sobbing in a Denny's parking lot?

The future is something you contemplate with dread in your heart alone late at night. Let people have their treats and their children and their false hope in the now. They might not have the chance to have them tomorrow.

I mean my family still makes fun of Al Gore

Potato Salad
Oct 23, 2014

nobody cares


Complications posted:

Well, the Thwaites glacier alone is a meter of sea level rise when it goes

hail satan

Zodium
Jun 19, 2004

Fell Mood posted:

Rime had some bad takes in the past, which they paid for, therefore everything else they say is also wrong, therefore the biosphere isn't collapsing and the wind industry isn't a sham, therefore I'm not going to cook to death in the next 5 years as I have to work outside in this poo poo.

Honestly pretty relieved. I always knew deep down that the people telling me bad things were themselves bad people, otherwise they wouldn't be telling me bad things!

it keeps happening

Only registered members can see post attachments!

Taima
Dec 31, 2006

tfw you're peeing next to someone in the lineup and they don't know

There's plenty of reasons to be concerned but this is some bullshit. The jet is definitely weird right now but showing a text book jetstream in the article, then the current one and being like " WhOa So WaVy aNd WeiRd" is not good journalism and/or science.

The jet is never as simple as in a textbook and frequently wiles out. Is this year getting kinda freaky with it? Sure. But don't let these people make you scared when there are plenty of reasons to actually be scared.

Right now I have two major questions about this year, climatologically:

1) How strong this insane El Nino will get
2) Will it actually work like a normal El Nino in a shifting climate?

The whole cause and effect of El Nino and La Nina is getting hosed up. Some of the biggest rain years in recent memory have been in La Nina, and some pretty lovely rain years have been during even strongly presenting El Nino... I think it's an extremely open question right now if, for example, California will even get the canonical El Nino rainfall this winter or if some other random poo poo will happen.

Anyways we'll see. I might make another El Nino effortpost in a while. Short version: It's Strong, Jim

Extremely spicy subsurface El Nino warming in the far East Pacific for June/July:

CODChimera
Jan 29, 2009

Milosh
Oct 14, 2000
Forum Veteran
Given that we live in a hell world what soulless corporations are going to thrive?

JAY ZERO SUM GAME
Oct 18, 2005

Walter.
I know you know how to do this.
Get up.


if the jet stream truly falls apart, you won't need some "science journalism" article written by some guy sitting in balthazar to find out

BIG HEADLINE
Jun 13, 2006

"Stand back, Ottawan ruffian, or face my lumens!"

Milosh posted:

Given that we live in a hell world what soulless corporations are going to thrive?

Monsanto. Koch Industries. Basically any corporations who know how to build and "produce" at any cost, be it financial or in human lives.

One big reason the oil companies are going full tilt boogie on a climate doom run is that they're not going to be able to move their product efficiently once poo poo gets *really* bad. I mean, nowadays they could just get a PMC to kill Lord Humongus! But when poo poo collapses, the CEO is lucky if he just gets to be the hype man.

FUCK COREY PERRY
Apr 19, 2008



Rime posted:

Sure, here's the deal in 2023:



lol that owns

Rime posted:



2023 is distinctly different, it's only half over.

When I started cracking and exploring the extent to which things were hosed here around 2017, I legitimately did not in my darkest moments of dread-induced half-mad essay posting expect to see many of my darker forward looking concepts becoming reality much less than a decade later. :smith:

:same:

Hubbert
Mar 25, 2007

At a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act.

Cup Runneth Over posted:

It's not that bad yet

FUCK COREY PERRY
Apr 19, 2008



Mola Yam posted:

-sense of humor stuck in edgelord web 1.0 forums mode
-well on the way to being literal old men
-average post is annoying, or at best incomprehensible, to anyone not in their in-group
-posts endlessly about how funny they and their friends are, and how hard they are laughing. likely frowning irl the whole time.
-default behaviour when threatened is to accuse others of pedophilia

hm

Concerning.

phew I don't yell kiddy-diddler so I'm in the clear

FUCK COREY PERRY
Apr 19, 2008



cash crab posted:

*: WHERE ARE THE GODDAMNED BUGS

all around my loving home please come take them they keep biting me

the fireflies are cool tho they can stay they will shortly die off and I will be left with an ever-increasing number of the biting bugs instead

FUCK COREY PERRY
Apr 19, 2008



Milosh posted:

Given that we live in a hell world what soulless corporations are going to thrive?

:hmmyes: i too come to the biosphere collapse thread for investing advice

buy screws, rip rutibex

Tony Tone
Jun 14, 2020

by vyelkin

Chad Sexington posted:

How should people be acting by your estimation? Hoarding poo poo? Super gluing themselves to works of art? Just sobbing in a Denny's parking lot?

The future is something you contemplate with dread in your heart alone late at night. Let people have their treats and their children and their false hope in the now. They might not have the chance to have them tomorrow.

I think people should be angry, they should carry huge amounts of hatred and disdain for either a specific group of rich/powerful locally-wise or just a generalized disdain for the rich and powerful, always ready to at the bare minimum poo poo talk them openly with the same hate the average joe has for terrorists or immigrants or Jews or whatever the gently caress. The rich should be public enemy number one, and there needs to exist an aversion to wealth. Not even for any utilitarian purpose like saving the climate because lol, lmao. But solely to get even. I think it's a lot like when a situation has deteriorated so badly between two sides, that negotiation becomes irrelevant as MAD has been set in motion already, and at this point it's all about the release of intensely repressed emotions with the other party strictly for the sole purpose of getting loving even.

BIG HEADLINE
Jun 13, 2006

"Stand back, Ottawan ruffian, or face my lumens!"
All of the *good* bugs (including those in our guts) are dying.

All of the *bad* bugs (both insect and sicknesses) that tend to spread things that cripple or kill us are thriving. Almost like an immune system attacking a threat.

I mean, for gently caress's sake, there's a tick that spreads a sickness that makes you dangerously allergic to consuming red meat. How much more on the loving nose does Nature have to get?

Perry Mason Jar
Feb 24, 2006

"Della? Take a lid"
All indications now that this year's lantern fly infestation is going to dwarf the last two years'. Ughhhhhhh

cat botherer
Jan 6, 2022

I am interested in most phases of data processing.
Did someone say ARkStorm?

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/22/magazine/california-dams.html

quote:

Dale Cox, a former project manager at the United States Geological Survey who has worked extensively with Swain, told me that California’s dams are unprepared for extreme weather because state water authorities have a false sense of how bad flooding can get. “The peak of record is driving a lot of engineering decisions in the state,” he says, and that peak is an underestimate, maybe a gross one. “Already, we are seeing several 100-year floods every 10 years.”

Some of this miscalculation arises from our failure to account for climate change, a problem that will only get worse as the atmosphere heats up and the amount of water vapor it can carry increases. “All of this infrastructure,” Swain says, “is designed for a climate that no longer exists.” But the error also lies in our understanding of the past. Most of the flood data that form the basis for the design of California’s dams come from the past century, which was an unusually placid period in the state’s weather.

Around three decades ago, meteorologists’ mental map of the state was given a jolt when satellites became sophisticated enough to pick up what came to be called atmospheric rivers. These storms, which resemble a lasso of rain thrown across the Pacific Ocean to the West Coast, deliver what Swain described to me as “almost incomprehensible volumes of water.”

In the mid-2000s, Cox assembled a group at the U.S.G.S. to study what would happen if the atmospheric rivers from two notable California flood years, 1969 and 1986, occurred back to back. They named the resulting scenario the Arkstorm: flooding throughout the state, water depths of up to 20 feet in the Central Valley and economic losses of $725 billion. When the report on this research was done, the authors presented it to emergency managers, municipal authorities and dam owners, including D.W.R. The response was demoralizing. “They said, ‘That’s too big, that’s ridiculous,’” says Lucy Jones, the chief scientist for the project.

The authors of the Arkstorm report had a response ready, however. Their imaginary storm was modeled on the Great Flood of 1862, which also made a lake of the Central Valley and destroyed, by one account, a quarter of all the buildings in the state. “The minute that you say this is too big, this couldn’t happen, this is unrealistic,” says Michael Dettinger, a hydrologist who worked on the report, “I can just point at 1862 and say, ‘1862 was far worse than this.’”

quote:

By using the stable as a high-water mark for the American River, researchers were able to set the peak discharge of the river during the flood (n.b.: 1862 flood) at more than 300,000 cubic feet per second — greater than the median flow of the Mississippi River at St. Louis and far above the peak of record. On the day I was there, the American River was rolling along steadily at 1,000 c.f.s.

Did presenting state officials with these numbers make a difference? I asked. No, he said. So many of the officials he talked to about Arkstorm were like the mayor in “Jaws” — unwilling to see a problem they couldn’t fix. Most officials wanted to do nothing if possible, or if they had to do something, they wanted it to be the cheapest thing they could get away with.

Cox thought part of the reason he faced resistance was that a flood is not a “charismatic disaster,” like an earthquake. It is less sudden, less dramatic, the wreckage uglier. “Whereas an earthquake is more like an act of God,” he said, “flooding points out the flaws of man.”

The original plan for the Arkstorm scenario was to have D.W.R. and other agencies translate the storms they had created into water on the ground: turning meteorology into hydrology. But according to Cox, “D.W.R. ghosted the Arkstorm project about three-quarters of the way through.” He never got a straight answer about why, but one of his contacts there told him it was “political.” (“Is that a capital P or a small p?” Cox asked.) My own reporting would eventually reveal another possible answer: The numbers were scary enough to shut down any discussion.

The best the Arkstorm team could manage for the final report was this line, buried on Page 59, which read like a statement from a hostage negotiation: “Because of the extremely sensitive nature of a dam-damage scenario, the selection of a particular dam to imagine as hypothetically damaged in such a way is left to emergency planners.”

quote:

Without a detailed model of how the Arkstorm would translate into water levels within the state’s reservoirs, though, the authors of the report were left gesturing at a general calamity. “That was the outstanding missing piece,” says Christine Albano, a researcher at the Desert Research Institute in Reno, Nev., who worked with the Arkstorm team.

To remedy that, shortly before his retirement, Cox began assembling a new group of collaborators, including Albano and Swain, for a project he called Arkstorm 2.0. Specifically, the group wanted to examine how a warmer climate would strengthen atmospheric rivers, and they wanted to finally plug that weather data into a hydrological model to see what it would do to the state’s flood-control infrastructure.

quote:

An aerial view of New Bullards Bar Dam, with the reservoir above and water coursing down its spillway and turning into a waterfall.

Some of the information was merely alarming. By matching up Bartles’s data with public information about the reservoirs’ outlet capacities, I could imagine the floods playing out in real time. It was apparent that Oroville Dam’s emergency spillway would be tested again: as much as two whole days of water running down the dirt slope, at levels far beyond those seen in 2017. The same went for Don Pedro dam, which would need to push huge volumes of water over its never-before-used emergency spillway. Even if the dam survived, the expected outflow from Don Pedro would be multiple times the capacity of the levees downstream.

Other parts of the document were terrifying. Two large dams owned by the Bureau of Reclamation — Friant and New Melones — looked likely to overtop: Each would have periods when they would be taking on water faster than they could spill it, and they would reach those moments when the reservoirs were nearly full. Friant Dam, which is situated in the hills above Fresno, population 544,500, would take on an incredible six times its total volume in the course of the month. New Melones would have a peak inflow that was more than twice what it could release, and its spillway couldn’t be used until the water was near the crest of the dam. In the probable inundation zone for New Melones were most of the 218,800 people of Modesto.

TehSaurus
Jun 12, 2006

make California lakes again

cash crab
Apr 5, 2015

all the time i am eating from the trashcan. the name of this trashcan is ideology


Tony Tone posted:

I think people should be angry, they should carry huge amounts of hatred and disdain for either a specific group of rich/powerful locally-wise or just a generalized disdain for the rich and powerful, always ready to at the bare minimum poo poo talk them openly with the same hate the average joe has for terrorists or immigrants or Jews or whatever the gently caress. The rich should be public enemy number one, and there needs to exist an aversion to wealth. Not even for any utilitarian purpose like saving the climate because lol, lmao. But solely to get even. I think it's a lot like when a situation has deteriorated so badly between two sides, that negotiation becomes irrelevant as MAD has been set in motion already, and at this point it's all about the release of intensely repressed emotions with the other party strictly for the sole purpose of getting loving even.

:hmmyes: i like the cut of your jib


quote:

Did presenting state officials with these numbers make a difference? I asked. No, he said. So many of the officials he talked to about Arkstorm were like the mayor in “Jaws” — unwilling to see a problem they couldn’t fix. Most officials wanted to do nothing if possible, or if they had to do something, they wanted it to be the cheapest thing they could get away with.

lmaooo

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smoobles
Sep 4, 2014

the climate is fine

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