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BillsPhoenix posted:Thank you - I hadn't even really thought about the why. I think it's because I like to try and understand how things work. And I don't understand why so many people I know are so heavily emotionally invested in the Ukraine conflict. I don't know why people would have emotions about a country invading its neighbour without provocation and then torturing raping people, kidnapping children and bombing civilians  Thanks for coming to tell us all of this, Mr. Regged Yesterday! 
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Jun 30, 2023 16:34
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Cpt_Obvious posted:So, out of curiosity, how does the thread feel about the progress of the counter offensive? Is it successful? How much progress are they making? Is it relatively good or bad news for the Ukrainian military? Lack of big victories and Russian routs (or announcements of "gestures of goodwill" ala Kherson) is obviously concerning, but without full data it is hard to tell what objectives will be achieved.
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Jun 30, 2023 16:36
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Cpt_Obvious posted:So, out of curiosity, how does the thread feel about the progress of the counter offensive? Is it successful? How much progress are they making? Is it relatively good or bad news for the Ukrainian military? It's not last years blitzkrieg in Kharkiv if that was what you are expecting. Russia has had time time to build defences and it will take time to probe for good access points and make a breakthough/s. Internal russian conflict adds more confusion but may not change things overall (i'm only an armchair general). 
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Jun 30, 2023 16:39
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Twitter experts of reasonable standing seem to be saying that we should withhold judgment until about two months into the counteroffensive. Kofman reminded us in a War on the Rocks podcast a while back that this far into the Kherson offensive, it would've been considered a failure (meatgrinder, Russians were clearly not fleeing, incredibly slow progress, if any).
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Jun 30, 2023 16:41
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BillsPhoenix posted:Thank you - I hadn't even really thought about the why. I think it's because I like to try and understand how things work. And I don't understand why so many people I know are so heavily emotionally invested in the Ukraine conflict. It sure is a mystery why people might react strongly to their neighbours being on the receiving end of a war of extermination. Gosh, utterly incomprehensible.
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Jun 30, 2023 16:43
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Fidelitious posted:This is turning into a bit of a derail but there cannot possibly be enough team lead/department head positions for everyone with 8 years of experience to be expected to have such a position. Yeah healthy organizations have IC advancement paths.
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Jun 30, 2023 16:44
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Cpt_Obvious posted:So, out of curiosity, how does the thread feel about the progress of the counter offensive? Is it successful? How much progress are they making? Is it relatively good or bad news for the Ukrainian military? Who really knows? No one outside a few high level Ukrainian leaders knew about when the counter offensive was going to start and the beginning was announced after it commenced. We have no idea what time frame Ukraine is working on, what its actual objectives are, acceptable attrition rates, etc. Unless there is some sort of decisive victory or loss no one can be sure what is going on.
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Jun 30, 2023 17:03
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https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1674814603627307008 A big Prigozhin-affiliated media operation has been disbanded, so expect a lot of juicy media chaos.
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Jun 30, 2023 17:32
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Morrow posted:https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1674814603627307008 RIP Twitter's engagement numbers
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Jun 30, 2023 17:38
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Daily Mail's comments section already looks sparser than usual.
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Jun 30, 2023 17:40
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the heat goes wrong posted:Serious lol at americans having trouble to comprehending somebody being a director at 30. ngl, that's a big part of my visceral reaction, since in my late 30's I just feel barely responsible enough to live on my own and hold down a full-time entry-ish level job simultaneously 
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Jun 30, 2023 18:04
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Cpt_Obvious posted:So, out of curiosity, how does the thread feel about the progress of the counter offensive? Is it successful? How much progress are they making? Is it relatively good or bad news for the Ukrainian military? It's important to remember that this is the first time anyone has seen what a modern peer war looks like. This offensive is the first large scale counter offensive of this sort of the war (which is to say, one that Russia has had time to prepare for and isn't immediately at a huge strategic disadvantage). As such, it's impossible for anyone to say what realistic best case progress looks like for Ukraine. We have no frame of reference what so ever. Maybe the progress being made right now is the best that could be hoped for or maybe it could be better if different decisions were made. I think fundamentally the fact that Ukraine is making progress, and making it considerably faster and more consistently than the Russians were able to do earlier in the year, is extremely good news for Ukraine. It's all about pressure and slowly wearing down the Russian lines until they break. Nobody can tell you how fast it "should" be happening. If they stall, it's bad, if they progress, it's good.
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Jun 30, 2023 18:08
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WaPo published an interview with Zaluhny today. Bottom line, yeah, breaking through defenses the Russians had months to prepare, without air superiority and while being outgunned is gonna be loving hard and costly. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/06/30/valery-zaluzhny-ukraine-general-interview/
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Jun 30, 2023 18:08
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I guess there's a lot of ways to interpret the fact that the most qualified man for a very important job is barely out of his 20s.
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Jun 30, 2023 18:09
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Tiny Timbs posted:RIP Twitter's engagement numbers Yeah. In light of this recent Twitter change, can we have a thread rule that a screenshot of a tweet should be posted instead of a link? It's a big selfish ask, but I ain't signing up for a Twitter account.
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Jun 30, 2023 18:14
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IMO it's OK to just be impressed with a relatively younger person's competence, and questioning competence based on an adult person's age and nothing else always whiffs of ageism. If we had some actual reason to think this guy's position wasn't earned, someone would have posted it. Alexander the Great was a monster but he was competently conquering nations at the age of 20 and was ruling a massive empire at the age of 30. Training, situation, and personal qualities matter a lot. That I was personally unprepared to take on the handling a company responsible for the lives of thousands of people at the age of 30 says a lot more about the pathetic state of my own country's education and social structures and my personal failings, than it does about human capacity in general.
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Jun 30, 2023 18:15
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funk_mata posted:Yeah. In light of this recent Twitter change, can we have a thread rule that a screenshot of a tweet should be posted instead of a link? It's a big selfish ask, but I ain't signing up for a Twitter account. OK nevermind, it looks like I/we can use "nitter" (the gently caress?) FOR NOW to view tweets without an account with a simple find/replace in the url: https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1674814603627307008 -> https://nitter.it/christogrozev/status/1674814603627307008
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Jun 30, 2023 18:20
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kemikalkadet posted:Lot of 30-somethings ITT not happy about being called middle-aged. Get off my lawn, zoomer
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Jun 30, 2023 18:25
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Here's a good video about some of the interpretations of Ukraine's progress in this counteroffensive https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4v2fuo9oI4o
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Jun 30, 2023 18:40
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Cpt_Obvious posted:So, out of curiosity, how does the thread feel about the progress of the counter offensive? Is it successful? How much progress are they making? Is it relatively good or bad news for the Ukrainian military? I've been reading the crayon eating thread over the last few days so I'm qualified to provide an unbiased answer to this. The counteroffensive failed, Ukraine's army has been destroyed "to a man" and Ukraine is on the verge of being balkanised within weeks. This is increasingly the fault of perfidious albion and specifically Boris Johnstone who tricked the gentle but foolish Ukrainian government into not accepting Russia's offer of rolling over and being genocided which would be the better outcome in terms of world hegmony. Also Russia is now "stronger than ever" due to recent events because reasons. Hope this helps. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jun 30, 2023 18:41
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Additionally, Zelensky is becoming increasingly isolated
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Jun 30, 2023 18:48
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hitchensgoespop posted:I've been reading the crayon eating thread over the last few days so I'm qualified to provide an unbiased answer to this. why would you do this to yourself it's like when i was so excited about the coup attempt i thought to strike up a conversation about it with a taxi driver, and was then promptly reminded that most people's knowledge of world events does not extend beyond charge they phone and eat hot chip
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Jun 30, 2023 18:52
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Qtotonibudinibudet posted:why would you do this to yourself I think it's important sometimes to read the other side of the story to gain some perspective on recent events, it's not something I would recommend but it can be a wild ride. Some very "unique" and "interesting" perspectives.
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Jun 30, 2023 18:55
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Cpt_Obvious posted:So, out of curiosity, how does the thread feel about the progress of the counter offensive? Is it successful? How much progress are they making? Is it relatively good or bad news for the Ukrainian military? My view which is formed by listening and reading serious 3rd party analysts as well averaging my daily Twitter trawling from accounts on both sides. It feels like the "counter offensive" is almost a misnomer and is in fact more of an extension of late May's "shaping operations". In the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia area, major fighting is confined to a few spots on the front line near Tomak, Robotyne, and a bulge in the Russian line near Staromaiorsky. This later area is the region where the Ukrainians have gained the most ground but it is important to note that all gains have been made in the buffer zone established by the Russians before the main network of fortifications on the "Surovkin line" begins. Aside from the early June sightings of the Bradleys' and mine clearing Leopards getting taken out, the presence of Western vehicles on video or still images is sparse which suggests that the number of these western trained brigades involved in the fighting is small or sub units are rotated in and out. Complicating things is that the Ukrainians seem very active at night either pushing back or destroying Russian positions in the buffer zone in the dark and the pulling back the vehicles to cover in the day when the Russians counter attack to regain lost ground. It almost feels like a cat and mouse game where the Russians use low quality mobilized troops to hold strong points to bait the Ukrainians forward and the hit them with artillery and attack helicopters before sending the mobiks back in. The Ukrainians meanwhile are trying to shoot down the helicopters and hit Russian artillery positions as they expose themselves in turn. Who is gaining the upper hand in this is impossible to tell. The only thing that is consistent is that it is the mobilized Russians that are doing the majority of the fighting for the Russians. It also seems clear the Ukrainians are not going to take risky action and expose significant portions of their western vehicles until the artillery duel is won. The Ukrainians are attacking elsewhere too especially in the Bakhmut region where progress is being made on the north and southern edges of the city. The footage coming out of those areas seem to indicate older and more established Ukrainian units leading the fighting there. There are scattered tweets from the Russian side which suggests that they don't view Bakhmut changing hands again as some remote possibility. The Russians aren't totally on the defensive. They are continuing to attack and expand the bulge in there line around the Kreminna area and much fuss has been made about Russian "paratroopers" attacking south towards Siversk by Rybar. To me, from the way the Ukrainians are talking in public, it seems conceivable that if the conditions for breaking the fortified line in the south don't present themselves, a major attack might never come and they will pull their chips back and wait for a better hand to be dealt and what we are left with is a summer of this type of extended skirmishing along the front line. Whether that is considered a success or not I guess will be up to the spin doctors to fight over.
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Jun 30, 2023 19:00
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Cpt_Obvious posted:I guess there's a lot of ways to interpret the fact that the most qualified man for a very important job is barely out of his 20s. yeah, for one thing, we can deduce that he isn't an American Re: Counter-Offensive Results. I'm mostly reading our own local media, and they keep on reporting small Ukrainian advances here and there. So far, the Russians haven't managed to stop their advance anywhere, despite several attempted counter-attacks, and apparently Russia has now ordered to abandon the nuclear power plant in the region Saporischschja. (According to Ukrainian sources) Source: Zeit, in German Please don't tell Willo, or they may fear that Russia is evacuating the power plant to blow it up.
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Jun 30, 2023 19:05
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MikeC posted:The only thing that is consistent is that it is the mobilized Russians that are doing the majority of the fighting for the Russians. Got a source on this? I did not have this impression at all, so curious where that's coming from.
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Jun 30, 2023 19:08
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mobilized "Russians" Kazakhstan recently warned its citizens that joining a foreign war can get you up to 10 years in prison. Allegedly, Wagner and the Russian MOD have started recruiting in some of the border regions near Russia, and Kazakhstan is pissed.
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Jun 30, 2023 19:20
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Chalks posted:Here's a good video about some of the interpretations of Ukraine's progress in this counteroffensive An interesting watch. 
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Jun 30, 2023 19:34
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There has been a shooting at the Chisinau airport in Moldova on Friday, with two dead. The shooter has been arrested and all flights are suspended for now. According to Reuters a man had arrived on plane from Turkey but had been denied entry to country, at which point he had managed to grab a gun from a border guard and start using it against the guards. Wild poo poo  Probably not related to the war, but posting here because of proximity and political situation.
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Jun 30, 2023 19:53
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It is June 2023 and I am agreeing with a MikeC post. My opinion is somewhere there even if I disagree on some details.
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Jun 30, 2023 20:02
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WarpedLichen posted:Got a source on this? I did not have this impression at all, so curious where that's coming from. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/idt-829ea0ba-5b42-499b-ad40-6990f2c4e5d0 Also. Several of pro Ukrainian propaganda accounts showing captured mobiks. None I have come across show captured professionals.
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Jun 30, 2023 20:11
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MikeC posted:https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/idt-829ea0ba-5b42-499b-ad40-6990f2c4e5d0 Thanks, I hesitate to draw the conclusion that the mobilized are doing the majority of the fighting from those sources but I can see the chain of logic.
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Jun 30, 2023 20:21
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Do we have a reliable source that Surovikin has been arrested? I know he hasn't been seen since the uprising but his arrest only seems to have been announced by US sources.
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Jun 30, 2023 20:31
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MikeC posted:To me, from the way the Ukrainians are talking in public, it seems conceivable that if the conditions for breaking the fortified line in the south don't present themselves, a major attack might never come and they will pull their chips back and wait for a better hand to be dealt and what we are left with is a summer of this type of extended skirmishing along the front line. I agree and actually think that this is the most likely outcome and that people should be mentally prepared for it. It's obvious some posters were expecting a Karkiv-like rout of several Russian positions (I'll admit that I was leaning in that direction as well, more fool me) within a week of the "start" of the counteroffensive. But that's the exception, not the rule for a war on this scale. I would even go so far as to say that continuing to hold their own, knock out a few strategic Russian positions, and keep enough pressure on that the Russians can't get up to any of their own trouble would be a victory for Ukraine. Even if anything short of driving the Russians back to Belgorod and Rostov by the end of July will be spun by some as a defeat.
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Jun 30, 2023 20:34
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Irony Be My Shield posted:Do we have a reliable source that Surovikin has been arrested? I know he hasn't been seen since the uprising but his arrest only seems to have been announced by US sources. I think the rumor originated on telegram and was confirmed by the Moscow Times: https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/06/28/russian-general-arrested-following-wagner-mutiny-mt-russian-a81685 Edit telegram channel from citteam: https://t.me/PlushevChannel/22342 WarpedLichen fucked around with this message at 20:46 on Jun 30, 2023 |
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Jun 30, 2023 20:35
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Irony Be My Shield posted:Do we have a reliable source that Surovikin has been arrested? I know he hasn't been seen since the uprising but his arrest only seems to have been announced by US sources. NPR was reporting it yesterday, citing “a US official”. I’m not sure about any non-US sources though. https://www.npr.org/2023/06/29/1185088717/russia-general-detained-ukraine-commander
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Jun 30, 2023 20:44
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Irony Be My Shield posted:Do we have a reliable source that Surovikin has been arrested? I know he hasn't been seen since the uprising but his arrest only seems to have been announced by US sources. There was another story that said that he was only taken for interrogations and released rather than being put behind bars, but I don't remember where I read that. Either way there's not much concrete evidence of any of it. Given his command role it seems a little unlikely that they'd arrest him without any official statement, but who knows! edit: the source was Bloomberg. Meanwhile CNN has reported that "he was a secret VIP member of Wagner for years", which sounds a bit like Illuminati to me Nenonen fucked around with this message at 21:06 on Jun 30, 2023 |
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Jun 30, 2023 21:03
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it's not unexpected that the defensive lines are filled with mobiks. Ukraine did the same thing with TDF in Bakhmut. It lets you rebuild and reconstitute your offensive forces. The amount of training (and equipment) needed to hold a line is far less than for offensive actions. there was a similar dynamic in the war in Syria, where local forces held the line and relatively tiny groups of regulars were committed only for attacks or counterattacks. my short summary of how the offensive is going is that its been making substantial progress even in the teeth of tough defenses, but that progress has been bloody and that Russian defenses have not been breached on a strategic level. I assume that the Russians are probably building new defense lines behind where Ukrainian success has been highest. At this point, it looks to be a strategic meat grinder where the Ukrainians attempt to pressure the Russians to the point of local collapse. They've spent a lot of effort not only on attacking Russian positions, but stepping up their campaign against Russian logistics.
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Jun 30, 2023 21:10
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Irony Be My Shield posted:Do we have a reliable source that Surovikin has been arrested? I know he hasn't been seen since the uprising but his arrest only seems to have been announced by US sources. Venedictov, citing his mates from the Kremlin press pool who participated in a press conference behind closed doors, said that he was invited for a long chat, and even paraphrased Surovikin's call to his family, where he basically only said 'yes' and 'no' and didn't know when he would be back home. By all accounts, he's in some serious poo poo, but his legal status is still unclear. Being officially arrested would probably be safer for him, as opposed to being quietly disappeared with the risk of randomly slipping on a banana near an open window. But he may also just resurface tomorrow and act like nothing happened.
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Jun 30, 2023 21:17
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TheDeadlyShoe posted:At this point, it looks to be a strategic meat grinder where the Ukrainians attempt to pressure the Russians to the point of local collapse. They've spent a lot of effort not only on attacking Russian positions, but stepping up their campaign against Russian logistics. That’s basically what I have been theorizing for awhile. Ukraine has been tactically loving all the Russian logistics for basically the entire war. They have stepped up this in recent weeks along with focusing heavily on destroying emplaced, likely presighted, artillery. I have seen more artillery destroyed in the last few weeks than the last several months. If Ukraine gets ATACMS as is heavily rumored soon you have a bigger problem on the Russian side as their logistics get even worse. I really wish that NATO would give Ukraine some cruise missiles. I feel like being able to target and destroy airfields and known air defense would be extremely helpful. Granted anti-mine solutions are probably most important at the moment.
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Jun 30, 2023 21:27
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