(Thread IKs:
Stereotype)
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AQI looks good! the danger is over
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Jul 3, 2023 12:18
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| # ? May 26, 2024 20:06 |
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Wait a sec... that would mean... climate change IS happening?
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Jul 3, 2023 12:26
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1 in 3 billion is still a chance There's still hope!!
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Jul 3, 2023 12:27
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Microplastics posted:1 in 3 billion is still a chance 
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Jul 3, 2023 12:32
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Soggy Muffin posted:Nice gem from GBS “gently caress the doomers” thread lol yet another "let's kill the cassandras" thread Vampire Panties posted:Climate change is preeminently solvable. It just costs a lot of money. A lot a lot. More than the world has spent on a project before. But does anyone think we won't do it? That ourselves, and our children and whatnot, are going to be just fine going into the apocalypse because they have their iphones? Its as insulting as it is stupid. Estimates have put the total cost of fixing climate change somewhere between 300 billion and 50 trillion dollars. That is 24 months of the US's total GDP to resolve climate change permanently. with existing technology. How much of that could be clawed back from the even if you accept this poster is 100% correct about the costs and technology, there's a huge lag between our actions and the result when it comes to climate change. that's how we ended up in this situation in the first place. so yeah i think we're going to go nuts trying to fix this.... in a few decades, when it's too late. and i'm very concerned the actions we take will involve war and eco-fascism, which sucks. my doomerism doesn't stop anyone from trying. the closest i've come to telling people to not take action is telling people not to bomb pipelines or embrace eco-fascism as it won't actually help the cause
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Jul 3, 2023 12:33
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global elite
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i think i read somewhere that technically it is possible in an infinite number of universes for the atoms comprising your body to perfectly align with a wall in a way that lets you phase through the wall
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Jul 3, 2023 12:40
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I don't think north americans will try to fix it. I think they are much more likely to blame minorities for their own social issues and the third world for the decline in material conditions. Then they triple down on barbarism.
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Jul 3, 2023 12:46
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in local biosphere collapse news, i was going for a walk this afternoon when i saw a magpie in the middle of the road, just standing there. when i came closer it flew off to the side but still looked back at the road. the reason why it was on the road in the first place was that its mate had just been hit and killed by a car and it was mourning it, or in shock that it’s life partner just died. its coming up to territory finding, nesting and breeding season for magpies on the east coast of australia, but now this guy will literally die alone. awful so i guess cars ftw ?
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Jul 3, 2023 12:48
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climate change is basically inflation for weather
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Jul 3, 2023 12:51
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Cold on a Cob posted:lol yet another "let's kill the cassandras" thread Ecosphere collapse was always going to happen because we haven’t figured a way to stop being human. Let me know if these guys have got a plan for the next limiting factor after CO2. Anything predicated on infinite growth will inevitably hit more and more Liebig limits until collapse. Technically, we could have solved fossil fuels being a problem and made some kind of pseudo-steady state economy. Just nah, let’s not.
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Jul 3, 2023 12:56
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Get me the number to Fermi. I solved his paradox!
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Jul 3, 2023 12:57
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Xaris posted:holy hell, i’ve probably told this story here before but the time i was on a modern rice/corn farm few years back and the dirt was essentially something to dump the fertilizer in and provide structure support for the plants, we also did hundreds of core samples down to like 5 feet deep across multiple fields of few acres and saw 0 earthworms?? the soil just had a dusty feel to it and stuck to everything there was a regenerative farming field that had lot more bees, butterflies and insects around but the farmers also said they had a much lower yield because they don’t do all the other things a modern farm does so welp
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Jul 3, 2023 13:16
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birbs
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Microplastics posted:1 in 3 billion is still a chance What does one in three billion chance even mean? Is this the sort of thing that happens once in three billion years? Three billion days? Three billion seconds? Or once every three billion planets? It's just big numbers meant to scare us.
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Jul 3, 2023 14:13
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Shyrka posted:What does one in three billion chance even mean? I always suspected that the frequentists and the climate alarmists were in cahoots.
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Jul 3, 2023 14:15
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Xaris posted:holy hell, I hate this! toggle posted:in local biosphere collapse news, i was going for a walk this afternoon when i saw a magpie in the middle of the road, just standing there. when i came closer it flew off to the side but still looked back at the road. the reason why it was on the road in the first place was that its mate had just been hit and killed by a car and it was mourning it, or in shock that it’s life partner just died. its coming up to territory finding, nesting and breeding season for magpies on the east coast of australia, but now this guy will literally die alone. awful and this too 
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Jul 3, 2023 14:40
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Shyrka posted:What does one in three billion chance even mean? Someone with a better grasp of statistics than me can probably do it justice but I like to imagine it as a coin being flipped every day - you know from past data that it could turn up Heads or Tails, and a long string of Tails could technically happen by chance and you can calculate that chance, and every subsequent day it comes up Tails that chance persists but gets smaller, and the smaller it gets the more likely the explanation that the coin is being manipulated somehow. Quite how it applies to SST is beyond me though. Some stats nerd get in here and do the needful
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Jul 3, 2023 14:47
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like, 500 year flood have a 0.2% chance of flooding on a given year. the 1 in 3 billion flood plane is... Pangaea, i guess? the six standard deviations itself seems like an arbitrary threshold, and all that comes to mind is SIX SIGMA BLACK BELT
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Jul 3, 2023 14:58
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Iirc he clarified it once as being in days but that sigma poo poo or whatever is so beyond me. All I known is it mean we hosed super harderer
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Jul 3, 2023 15:00
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Puppy Burner posted:I don't think north americans will try to fix it. I think they are much more likely to blame minorities for their own social issues and the third world for the decline in material conditions. Then they triple down on barbarism. it's not just north americans how anyone who's paid even the least attention to the past decade or even just interacted with society at large during that time would come to the conclusion that it'll be anything but that is beyond me "yes half of the ruling class has been doing everything they can to convince people climate change isn't real for 50 years now purely out of greed, they've actually managed to not only convince a sizeable portion of the population, but also to make it a core pillar of their identity to reflexively hate anything that even sounds like it might help mitigate things, and those people tend to be violent xenophobic bigot in the first place, and are currently flirting with open fascism. now let me tell you how we'll all come together for the sake of the children"
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Jul 3, 2023 15:00
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nearly all the megafauna most of the fisheries most of the amphibians most of the insects a third of the birds
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Jul 3, 2023 15:03
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MightyBigMinus posted:nearly all the megafauna Don’t be a doomer in the 6th mass extinction event dude, that’s a serious bummer to the rest of us that caused it
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Jul 3, 2023 15:08
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Shyrka posted:What does one in three billion chance even mean? it means that under the assumption that the events form a normal probability distribution, which is reasonable, one of the events has that probability of happening purely through chance. the events in this case are each of the measurements in that graph. so one out of every 3 billion bars should be like that, which in this case means once every 3 billion days since they seem to be daily measurements
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Jul 3, 2023 15:13
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Microplastics posted:Someone with a better grasp of statistics than me can probably do it justice but I like to imagine it as a coin being flipped every day - you know from past data that it could turn up Heads or Tails, and a long string of Tails could technically happen by chance and you can calculate that chance, and every subsequent day it comes up Tails that chance persists but gets smaller, and the smaller it gets the more likely the explanation that the coin is being manipulated somehow. a null hypothesis test yields the chance of obtaining a value as great or greater than the one observed, provided the null hypothesis is true and the fit assumptions are satisfied. here this means that, assuming various things about the shape of the data distribution and that SST actually hasn't changed from its historical trends, there is a one in three billion chance of obtaining a deviation as great or greater than this one.
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Jul 3, 2023 15:25
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https://twitter.com/LeonSimons8/status/1675744563753877506?s=20 Calling 18C by August 2024
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Jul 3, 2023 15:40
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MightyBigMinus posted:nearly all the megafauna Third third third, third of the birds
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Jul 3, 2023 15:51
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Microplastics posted:Someone with a better grasp of statistics than me can probably do it justice but I like to imagine it as a coin being flipped every day - you know from past data that it could turn up Heads or Tails, and a long string of Tails could technically happen by chance and you can calculate that chance, and every subsequent day it comes up Tails that chance persists but gets smaller, and the smaller it gets the more likely the explanation that the coin is being manipulated somehow. Not trying to remember all my error analysis stuff from college cause gently caress that but: That graph is specifically "Standard Deviation below the 1980-2010 mean". So we're in the "average vs mean vs median" area of maths, here they're using "mean" since they're taking a specific data range in a sample instead of just averaging all recorded data ever for Antarctic sea ice. But "mean" can also imply the removal of "spiders george" style outliers. Would have to see a more detailed paper to answer exactly what they did to the data sample for their mean, but since they give a date range it's safe to assume that they've simply chosen to use a sample set of data (1980-2010) to set a mean. Now "standard deviations" are also known as "sigmas" or "σ" and are a symbol specifically used to denote a result for "error analysis". Now error analysis is a separate calculation done on scientific data that results from (as a very basic example) something like the "Chi (χ) squared test" (Link). There are a few variations and applications but ultimately they all do the same thing, which is to determine if the resulting data arose by pure chance or if it is statistically significant. That is where the "number of σ s" comes in, and it's kinda....vague even in the best of cases until you hit a threshold, which is usually 3-6 σ. Where that threshold sits usually depends on what the test is being applied to, how common the components of the experiment are, etc, etc, but generally, if you hit more than 4 σ, it's statistically impossible to be by pure chance. This is different than a "margin of error" which everyone is familiar with from political modeling, aka: So-and-so is polling at 70& +/- 1%. That's something that arises from the potential accuracy of the data, not from the statistical likelihood of it's veracity. Now for a direct answer to the question of "Is that in years? Or in Days? Or in Monkeys per typewriter?", it once again kinda depends. The Chi-squared test can be unitless. If the test is being applied in a "Goodness-of-fit" test, it's unitless. It's just a statistical likeliness result. But it can also have units if it's being used in a "confidence of normal variance" test. In which case it'd have the units of the original test, so a likely guess based on what that chart is mapping, given the way they seem to be calculating the mean, is years. So we'd have a chance of that result (the current extent of mean ice as a deviation below the mean from 1980-2010) could occur once every 3 billion years. And given the earth is only roughly 4.5 billion years old, and the current atmosphere even younger, it's basically statistically impossible for this to randomly occur given that timescale. I'm not going to actually do any math for this example, but it's like saying that you flipped a coin 1000 times and got a result that statistically is only likely 1 in 1 billion times. You are so below the threshold for it to possibly occur naturally it's basically impossible for it to have happened by natural chance. TL:DR: The 6 σ result that chart is talking about it either in EDIT: Missed that the graph is specifically charting days lol. So it's in days if anything. Crain has issued a correction as of 16:13 on Jul 3, 2023 |
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Jul 3, 2023 16:10
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it's always very funny when someone asks what the result of a frequentist test actually means
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Jul 3, 2023 16:12
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the decline is starting to level out so it's probably fine!
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Jul 3, 2023 16:32
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Vampire Panties posted:
I used to regret getting degrees on the subject instead of just watching kurzgesagt videos and 'hecking believing in the science', but they don't seem any happier despite all the 'hope'
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Jul 3, 2023 16:42
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and go back to CSPAM. If I had a nickel for every scientist who said "well its actually all worse than you could possibly imagine!"
I could finance fixing climate change myself. 
" while fundamentally denying the technological ability of humans to mititgate or reverse the effects of climate change is loving horseshit.
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Blockade posted:I used to regret getting degrees on the subject instead of just watching kurzgesagt videos and 'hecking believing in the science', but they don't seem any happier despite all the 'hope' I'd far rather be happy than right any day." "And are you?" "No. That's where it all falls down, of course." "Pity", said Arthur. "It sounded like rather a good lifestyle otherwise.
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Jul 3, 2023 16:52
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weatherdammerung thread doesn’t recognize flipmode is the greatest https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AqtPlB-2oH8
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Jul 3, 2023 16:59
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People are finally starting to put Busta in serious GOAT contention and I'm extremely here for it.
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Jul 3, 2023 17:10
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Blockade posted:I used to regret getting degrees on the subject instead of just watching kurzgesagt videos and 'hecking believing in the science', but they don't seem any happier despite all the 'hope' I've been far more happy knowing there's nothing you as an individual can do to stop climate change. The forbidden knowledge is quite liberating! People with hope put the responsibility upon themselves and seem quite a bit more grumpy when you put the plastics in a recycling container (that goes straight to the landfill.) FlapYoJacks has issued a correction as of 17:14 on Jul 3, 2023 |
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Jul 3, 2023 17:12
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Oglethorpe posted:AQI looks good! the danger is over gently caress you Greenland!!!
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Jul 3, 2023 17:15
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Microplastics posted:Third third third, third of the birds
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Jul 3, 2023 17:18
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Microplastics posted:Third third third, third of the birds Don't you know about the third? WELL EVERYBODY KNOWS IT'S THIRD OF THE BIRDS Third, third, third of the birds
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Jul 3, 2023 17:20
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two-time fee posted:"I'd far rather be happy than right any day."
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Jul 3, 2023 17:40
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FlapYoJacks posted:I've been far more happy knowing there's nothing you as an individual can do to stop climate change. The forbidden knowledge is quite liberating! People with hope put the responsibility upon themselves and seem quite a bit more grumpy when you put the plastics in a recycling container (that goes straight to the landfill.) agree. i still make "attempts", like reusing things, buying secondhand, etc, but i no longer feel that panic. it's just cool zone.
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Jul 3, 2023 17:52
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For me it’s the realization that all the little thing that used to set me off are inconsequential. I no longer have anger over politics or towards people who have slighted me. I try to enjoy what I have and live in the moment, whereas before I took all that for granted. Still makes me depressed af about it, don’t think I will ever get over what we are doing to all these beautiful creatures and makes me feel ashamed to be apart of it. Weird feeling
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Jul 3, 2023 17:56
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| # ? May 26, 2024 20:06 |
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It took literally years to work through climate grief but it's rosy on the other side, in Acceptance. I'm among the most relaxed people I know, even as I tell and remind them that the world is ending spectacularly. I was literally never promised a long life, anyway. So, the apocalypse only brings into sharp relief the necessity of authentic, compassionate, and mindful being, which I every day take seriously (if imperfectly). To me, climate doom is the good gospel.
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Jul 3, 2023 17:57
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