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What is the most powerful flying bug?
This poll is closed.
🦋 15 3.71%
🦇 115 28.47%
🪰 12 2.97%
🐦 67 16.58%
dragonfly 94 23.27%
🦟 14 3.47%
🐝 87 21.53%
Total: 404 votes
[Edit Poll (moderators only)]

 
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Majorian
Jul 1, 2009
I think that’s just them drumming up more money and support.

But since I’ve been tarred with the most heinous of accusations in this thread - no, not Nazism, not even Trotskyism, but mlmp-ism - I will say something that mlmp would never ever say:

I could be wrong.

Ukraine could know how desperate its situation is (and it is a bad situation; they’re not winning this war), and blow up ZPP. I hope I’m not, because that would be extremely bad for a lot of innocent civilians in and outside the region. But it could happen. We’ll see. I hope I’m right.

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fits my needs
Jan 1, 2011

Grimey Drawer
i guess ukr could do some headline grabbing stuff on july 4 while everyones eating burgers, to really get everyone talking before the summit?

slava ukraini

KomradeX
Oct 29, 2011

Posting on the NATO page

BearsBearsBears
Aug 4, 2022
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/08/31/ukraine-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-plant-iaea-grossi/

The Washington posted:

Ukrainian officials remain worried that the Kremlin’s forces will sanitize the plant ahead of the visit and intimidate workers into not telling the truth about Russian behavior, prompting the IAEA to bless the safety protocols at the plant. That would, in effect, legitimize Russia’s occupying presence, the Ukrainians fear.

“The worst-case scenario is when they come and say it’s best that the station is under Russian control [and] in general, nuclear safety protocols are followed,” Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba told The Washington Post last week.

The worse-case scenario for Ukraine is if Russia is following nuclear safety protocols. Thankfully a party or parties unknown is working to ensure that Ukraine's worst-case scenario doesn't happen.

The Washington posted:

more than a dozen experts will inspect a Russian-occupied plant that has experienced artillery barrages and power outages, among several other challenges, in recent months.

The Washington posted:

Two Ukrainian plant workers have been killed in the shelling around the plant in the past month.

An expanded quote
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/08/26/ukraine-nuclear-plant-russia-inspectors/

The Washington posted:

Ukrainian officials said their biggest fear was that the IAEA visit would bless the safety protocols being followed at the plant, and by consequence seem to legitimize Russia’s occupying presence there.

“This is the worst-case scenario,” Kuleba said. “This is what we shouldn’t allow because this will mean that the Russians will stay and that will mean that the Russians will continue attempts to disconnect the power plant from the Ukrainian grid.”

BearsBearsBears has issued a correction as of 07:54 on Jul 4, 2023

Majorian
Jul 1, 2009

KomradeX posted:

Posting on the NATO page

Big snub on the Chinese Revolution.:stare:

Ytlaya
Nov 13, 2005

Majorian posted:

Neither side believes they're in a desperate situation, though.

Really?

Like I can understanding claiming "we don't know if Ukraine considers their situation desperate yet," but outright claiming that they don't view it as such (when the reality on the ground definitely seems pretty desperate!) is way more ridiculous than the claims you're calling "conspiracy theories" here (which is basically either "Ukraine would be willing to attack a nuclear plant" - which, while debatable, is at least plausible - or "if the nuclear plant is attacked, I'll assume it's Ukraine," which is just reasonable).

KomradeX
Oct 29, 2011

Majorian posted:

Big snub on the Chinese Revolution.:stare:

Wrong thread for that

Majorian
Jul 1, 2009

Ytlaya posted:

Like I can understanding claiming "we don't know if Ukraine considers their situation desperate yet,"

That’s literally what I’m claiming. My whole point is that I don’t think Ukraine will blow up the plant unless they think they have no chance of occupying that territory ever again.

fizzy
Dec 2, 2022

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS
Bad news for Russia - Their feeble air defences are unable to prevent Ukraine's drones from penetrating all the way into the very heart of Moscow.


https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...f0808e4930e5d3e

Moscow mayor confirms drone attack, blaming Ukraine
2h ago
06.12 BST

Sergei Sobyanin, Moscow’s mayor, said on Tuesday that Ukraine launched another drone attack on the Russian capital and its region, temporarily disrupting flight operations at the Vnukovo airport.

“At this moment, the attacks have been repelled by air defence forces,” Sobyanin said on Telegram.

“All detected drones have been eliminated.”

There were no casualties or injured reported, Sobyanin added.

text editor
Jan 8, 2007

BearsBearsBears posted:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/08/31/ukraine-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-plant-iaea-grossi/

The worse-case scenario for Ukraine is if Russia is following nuclear safety protocols. Thankfully a party or parties unknown is working to ensure that Ukraine's worst-case scenario doesn't happen.



An expanded quote
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/08/26/ukraine-nuclear-plant-russia-inspectors/

zelensky also recently suggested that the Russians would plant explosives in the facility in hidden places, turn it over to IAEA and Ukraine, and then remotely blow it up to make it look like the Ukrainians bombed the facility

fizzy
Dec 2, 2022

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

yellowcar posted:

sending in abuctees conscripts with less than a week of training and dwindling ammunition supplies: definitely not desperate

Bad news for yellowcar's analytical abilities - The reality is that it's actually Russia that's running out of ammunition supplies.


https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2023/04/05/when-will-ammunition-shortage-silence-russias-artillery/?sh=1faa82d96d95

When Will Ammunition Shortage Silence Russia’s Artillery?

Stalin famously called artillery ‘the god of war,’ and during WWII the Red Army honed the tactic of concentrating thousands of guns on a narrow section of front to deliver devastating barrages. Artillery has been similarly important in the current campaign, causing around 80% of the casualties, but many analysts including the U.K.’s Ministry of Defence are suggesting that Russian forces are now facing a critical shortage of ammunition. Is this wishful thinking, or will Russian guns start to fall silent?

Any assessment relies on knowing how many shells Russia had to start with, and the rate at which shells are being expended. And we have seen a wide range of figures thrown around.

...

Many commentators concur that the rate of fire is falling off, though whether this is from 60,000 a day to 20,000 or 20,000 to 5,000 is impossible to tell.

...

The sharp reduction in the amount being fired suggests that stockpiles are now severely depleted. Russia is reportedly drawing on old ammunition reserves, but reportedly as many of 50% of the shells are visibly rusty and are not in a satisfactory state due to poor storage and sheer age. Troops are reportedly being issued ammunition previously declared unfit for use.

How has Russia run through such ammunition reserves, reserves which presumably were supposed to be sufficient for a full-scale war with NATO, without achieving its war aims in Ukraine? While Ukraine has increasingly developed precision indirect fire to make best use of their resources, using drones to adjust their aim and hitting Russian tanks with a few well-directed shells, the Russians have relied on more and more firepower.

In an article entitled ‘Why Russia Keeps Turning to Mass Firepower’ in Foreign Policy, Lucian Staiano-Daniels notes that while the U.S. emphasizes the need for precise artillery fire, Russia prefers to use massed fires to make up for inadequacies in its army, tracing this back to the Napoleonic wars and beyond: “an army that is unable or unwilling to invest in its manpower must compensate with something else.”

This has been particularly obvious in urban warfare, where Russian forces have repeated the tactics developed in Chechnya, Rather than infantry fighting building-by-building, massed artillery demolishes entire blocks when they encounter any resistance. The result is the utter devastation of the towns and cities they capture, and the expenditure of large quantities of ammunition.

Even when fighting Ukrainian forces in the open countryside, Russian artillery is notable for throwing shells in the general direction of the enemy rather than at specific targets, leaving landscapes reminiscent of a WWI battlefield.

This is very much by the book for Russian artillery commanders. Russian army firing tables lay down the number of shells needed to carry out a barrage against any given type of target, and according to these hundreds of rounds are required even to destroy a single armored vehicle.

In addition to this inefficient use of ammunition, Russia has another problem: stockpiles are being blown up by long-range strikes. This seems to have been one of the main uses of the U.S.-suppled HIMARS rockets, with Ukraine claiming to have destroyed 50 ammo dumps in July. Since those first few months Russian ammunition has been stored even further back from the front line, but clearly significant quantities have been blown up, and forward storage sites and even individual ammunition trucks are still regularly hit.

Once the stockpile is gone, the only source will be new deliveries. According to Ukrainian estimates, Russia has capacity to produce around 20,000 rounds a month or less than 700 rounds a day. One 152mm gun fires 7-8 rounds a minute, so a single battery of 6 guns will expend that 700 rounds in one 15-minute bombardment – leaving nothing for any other Russian forces anywhere in Ukraine...

Russia still has some ammunition reserves, and the steady trickle of new ammunition will continue and perhaps increase as Russian industry shifts to meet Putin’s demands. Maybe they will succeed in buying additional ammunition from Iran. But expending 40,000 rounds, or even 20,000 or 10,000 in one day will no longer be feasible. Ukraine's General Staff believe that Russia will experience critical ammunition shortages in the next two months. Russian artillery is being starved into uselessness...

Cheatum the Evil Midget
Sep 11, 2000
I COULDN'T BACK UP ANY OF MY ARGUEMENTS, IGNORE ME PLEASE.

fizzy posted:

Bad news for Russia - Their feeble air defences are unable to prevent Ukraine's drones from penetrating all the way into the very heart of Moscow.


https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...f0808e4930e5d3e

Moscow mayor confirms drone attack, blaming Ukraine
2h ago
06.12 BST

Sergei Sobyanin, Moscow’s mayor, said on Tuesday that Ukraine launched another drone attack on the Russian capital and its region, temporarily disrupting flight operations at the Vnukovo airport.

“At this moment, the attacks have been repelled by air defence forces,” Sobyanin said on Telegram.

“All detected drones have been eliminated.”

There were no casualties or injured reported, Sobyanin added.

The article specifically says they shot down all the drones

BearsBearsBears
Aug 4, 2022
https://archive.fo/dBHtv

Another article I found about Ukraine's attempt to take the power plant about a week before the IEAE inspection team visited. Posting it since I already read it.

The Times posted:

Kyiv has never acknowledged attacking Europe’s largest nuclear power station but Ukrainian special forces, military intelligence and navy personnel involved have revealed to The Times details of the highly dangerous operation to recover the site.

The Times posted:

“The idea was that this would be an infantry-only battle. They wouldn’t be able to use artillery against us, as this is a nuclear plant,” the officer said. Drawn from select units of Ukraine’s military intelligence, GUR, and including the Shaman battalion, the Kraken Regiment and the Ukrainian Foreign Legion
Kraken Regiment is an Azov offshoot dedicated to special forces stuff. Shaman battalion is a sabotage group. Ukrainian Foreign Legion is ?????

The Times posted:

As special forces speedboats crossed a stretch of river nearly three miles wide, precision Himars rockets provided by the US smashed into Russian positions on the riverbank.
“This is our artillery and Himars working. Here they are shelling us in the water, on the Dnipro River,” the officer narrated as he showed video of the assault to The Times, explaining how his patrol boat had probed Russian defences on the bank for weaknesses.
Asked whether the US had provided targets for the Himars before the raid, a US defence source confirmed that “time-sensitive” intelligence was provided to Ukrainian special forces, although they declined to give specific details. “We do share information with them but they are responsible for the selection, prioritisation and ultimate decisions to engage threats,” the source said.
I'm not sure that the plan to use rocket artillery to assault the defenses around the plant and hope that Russia wouldn't use artillery on the incoming forces was properly thought out.

Russia has also claimed that Ukraine attempted to launch a raid of the ZNPP the day of the inspection but I haven't found western collaboration or pictures/video.
Ukraine is constantly claiming that Russia is firing artillery from inside the ZNPP complex but I haven't seen video or pictures of this either.

BearsBearsBears has issued a correction as of 08:26 on Jul 4, 2023

fizzy
Dec 2, 2022

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

Cheatum the Evil Midget posted:

The article specifically says they shot down all the drones

Even if you take the Russian officials' word at face value (and why should you? Russia is infamous as the land of disinformatzia), the fact that the drones were able to make it all the way to Moscow is itself already a humiliation for Russia.

Cheatum the Evil Midget
Sep 11, 2000
I COULDN'T BACK UP ANY OF MY ARGUEMENTS, IGNORE ME PLEASE.

fizzy posted:

Even if you take the Russian officials' word at face value (and why should you? Russia is infamous as the land of disinformatzia), the fact that the drones were able to make it all the way to Moscow is itself already a humiliation for Russia.

Seems reasonable

Majorian
Jul 1, 2009

BearsBearsBears posted:

I'm not sure that the plan to use rocket artillery to assault the defenses around the plant and hope that Russia wouldn't use artillery on the incoming forces was properly thought out.


You'll get no argument from me on that front. The AFU is run by idiots. I just don't think their idiocy and self-destructiveness extend to the point where they would intentionally blow up ZPP. Again, I could be wrong. Let's all please hope I'm not.

fizzy posted:

Even if you take the Russian officials' word at face value (and why should you? Russia is infamous as the land of disinformatzia), the fact that the drones were able to make it all the way to Moscow is itself already a humiliation for Russia.

That's further than even Prigozhin got!

bedpan
Apr 23, 2008

Majorian posted:

I just don't think their idiocy and self-destructiveness extend to the point where they would intentionally blow up ZPP.

lol lmao

orly
Oct 2, 2005
Probation
Can't post for 8 days!

crepeface posted:

Ukraine is led by the equivalent of a coked up CEO with a golden parachute that does not intend to land anywhere near Ukrainian soil, irradiated or otherwise

this

Majorian posted:

That's great and all but there are a lot of oligarchs running the country who would very much like to use that area to make money, and they're the ones who make the decisions, not poster boy Zelensky.

imagine being blackrock and then turning around and somehow requiring non-irradiated land to sell grain/oils/metals on. lol. lmfao.

BearsBearsBears posted:


The worse-case scenario for Ukraine is if Russia is following nuclear safety protocols. Thankfully a party or parties unknown is working to ensure that Ukraine's worst-case scenario doesn't happen.


it's not funny how much it's telegraphed at this point, but MSM gonna MSM so there's no point in hiding it

Weka
May 5, 2019

That child totally had it coming. Nobody should be able to be out at dusk except cars.

Vomik posted:

loving up the reactor would be an economic cost for russia and make them have to evacuate crimea, which would have radioactive water and no electricity. not to mention, the press could then just go back to saying russia nuked ukraine.

now... i'm not saying its likely or even that its a plan and i don't think there is even really a lot they could do to make it into a "chernobyl" if they tried, but if "something happened" you would immediately know who was behind it.

Have the Crimean blackouts been ongoing? It's been self powered since around 2019, but Ukraine has been striking the gas drilling rigs that feed them. I'm not sure how much damage they've done or what the other possibilities for importing gas are.

Majorian
Jul 1, 2009

orly posted:

imagine being blackrock and then turning around and somehow requiring non-irradiated land to grow grain on. lol. lmfao.

It's an industrial region, not an agricultural one. You irradiate the area, you lose whatever economic benefit it may have had to you.

JuulPodSaveAmerica
Aug 29, 2012

Majorian posted:

Pretending like blowing up a dam and causing a Chernobyl-level meltdown and breach are the same thing.

This thread is better when it isn't consumed with conspiracy-brained nonsense like this imo.

The UN regs on blowing up a dam and the ones on blowing up a nuclear power plant are actually like, a paragraph apart - they're both critical assets which can incur mass casualties when attacked and necessitate immense evacuations.

Majorian
Jul 1, 2009

JuulPodSaveAmerica posted:

The UN regs on blowing up a dam and the ones on blowing up a nuclear power plant are actually like, a paragraph apart - they're both critical assets which can incur mass casualties when attacked and necessitate immense evacuations.

I understand, but even so, a nuclear meltdown and breach that spreads radioactive fallout into the jet stream is going to likely have a wider impact on people for a longer period of time. There are degrees of manmade ecological disasters.

\/\/\/THANK you. We're still the only ones with the stones to deliberately irradiate countless civilians during wartime, and a pissant country like Ukraine isn't going to take that away from us.:911:\/\/\/

Majorian has issued a correction as of 08:53 on Jul 4, 2023

Turtle Watch
Jul 30, 2010

by Games Forum
neither Ukraine nor Russia will blow up the nuclear plant, they don’t have the guts. Only one country has what it takes to do something like that, and you are all invited to come to my barbecue tomorrow to help me celebrate it.

orly
Oct 2, 2005
Probation
Can't post for 8 days!

Turtle Watch posted:

neither Ukraine nor Russia will blow up the nuclear plant, they don’t have the guts. Only one country has what it takes to do something like that, and you are all invited to come to my barbecue tomorrow to help me celebrate it.


I really hope you're right, but it's still very possible the US itself will do the false flag if Ukraine won't do it

0 rows returned
Apr 9, 2007

i will blow up the nuclear plant

orly
Oct 2, 2005
Probation
Can't post for 8 days!
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/20/us/airstrike-us-isis-dam.html

mawarannahr
May 21, 2019

fizzy posted:

Bad news for yellowcar's analytical abilities - The reality is that it's actually Russia that's running out of ammunition supplies.

Ukraine's General Staff believe that Russia will experience critical ammunition shortages in the next two months. Russian artillery is being starved into uselessness[/b]...

Bad news for Ukraine's General Staff's beliefs - this article was written almost three months ago

fizzy
Dec 2, 2022

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

mawarannahr posted:

Bad news for Ukraine's General Staff's beliefs - this article was written almost three months ago

There's been nothing since then to suggest any change to the Russian military's predicament, though. It's the Russian military, for crying out loud. They are ridden with sloth, corruption, neglect and incompetency at every level, top to bottom. There's a good reason that the Russian armed forces are the byword of mockery and contempt.

Turtle Watch
Jul 30, 2010

by Games Forum

orly posted:

I really hope you're right, but it's still very possible the US itself will do the false flag if Ukraine won't do it

Exactly. AmeriCAN do what Ukraine dontsk.

DancingShade
Jul 26, 2007

by Fluffdaddy

Cheatum the Evil Midget posted:

The article specifically says they shot down all the drones

Russia successfully defended against all attacks? Sounds like more bad news for Russia!

Zeppelin Insanity
Oct 28, 2009

Wahnsinn
Einfach
Wahnsinn
Am I the only one that remembers Zelensky last year saying "Everyone that attacks a nuclear power plant belongs in the Hague" followed a paragraph later by "I will be attacking the nuclear power plant until Russia leaves it"

Turtle Watch posted:

neither Ukraine nor Russia will blow up the nuclear plant, they don’t have the guts. Only one country has what it takes to do something like that, and you are all invited to come to my barbecue tomorrow to help me celebrate it.


This is Israel erasure. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Opera

orly
Oct 2, 2005
Probation
Can't post for 8 days!

:catstare:

Yeah, we're hosed.

orly
Oct 2, 2005
Probation
Can't post for 8 days!
Ah, keeping a nuclear reactor safe by disabling its cooling systems. Ukranian ingenuity at work!

quote:

https://twitter.com/djuric_zlatko/status/1676145246856421376
Zlatti71
@djuric_zlatko
⚡️ Ukraine disconnected the 750 kV power transmission line supplying electricity to the Zaporizhzhya NPP

This was stated by Renat Karchaa, advisor to the general director of the Rosenergoatom Concern.

Ardennes
May 12, 2002
I think the point is not only to say that Ukraine would never do such a thing if/when it happens there will be no way to tell who was responsible.

Turtle Watch posted:

neither Ukraine nor Russia will blow up the nuclear plant, they don’t have the guts. Only one country has what it takes to do something like that, and you are all invited to come to my barbecue tomorrow to help me celebrate it.


The United States owns Ukraine

BEAR GRYLLZ
Jul 30, 2006

I have strong erections for Israel.
Strong, pathetic erections.

wow I can't believe russia would intentionally disconnect power to the zaporizhhya nuclear power plant risking a catastrophic nuclear meltdown

when will NATO finally step in and put an end to these orcs??

Turtle Watch
Jul 30, 2010

by Games Forum

Ardennes posted:

I think the point is not only to say that Ukraine would never do such a thing if/when it happens there will be no way to tell who was responsible.

The United States owns Ukraine

right, and do dog show judges hand the award to the dog or the trainer? So let’s give credit where it is due. 🇺🇸

Majorian
Jul 1, 2009

orly posted:

Ah, keeping a nuclear reactor safe by disabling its cooling systems. Ukranian ingenuity at work!

I think I'm gonna wait to hear this from someone else:

quote:

Russian state media refer to Karchaa as an ‘atomic expert’ and adviser to the head of Rosatom, the Russian state corporation in charge of nuclear projects. He was the one who gave a tour of the Zaporizhzhya NPP to IAEA head Rafael Grossi, accusing Ukrainian troops of regular shelling of the plant.

In a viral video posted on Twitter by war reporter Mac William Bishop, a bald man in a blue suit and sunglasses shows a group of foreign experts a missile that has hit the ground. He gestures to explain that it turned around after it landed and therefore could not have come from Russian positions.

Renat Karchaa appears to have only recently become known as an ‘atomic expert’. Back in 2014, journalists described him as ‘an expert on the North Caucasus and Abkhazia’—for example, when he was speaking about the political situation in the region on the Dozhd TV channel.

According to his profile on Abkhazia-Inform, Renat Karchaa was born on 17th July 1966 in Ufa, Bashkortostan, and served in the army in Tallinn, Estonia. Towards the end of the 1980s, he moved to Abkhazia where he obtained a degree in bio-geography from Abkhazian State University. At the age of 25, Karchaa became the youngest member of Abkhazia’s first parliament. His work as a lawmaker was coupled with the position of director of the Research Institute of Experimental Primatology and Therapy, which was based at the famous monkey breeding centre in Sukhumi.

Not saying it's not true, just that I don't particularly trust this Karchaa guy.

CODChimera
Jan 29, 2009

false flag

orly
Oct 2, 2005
Probation
Can't post for 8 days!

Majorian posted:

I think I'm gonna wait to hear this from someone else:

Not saying it's not true, just that I don't particularly trust this Karchaa guy.

lmao, ok that makes me relieved a bit, what a goober

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Majorian
Jul 1, 2009

orly posted:

lmao, ok that makes me relieved a bit, what a goober

Yeah, the videos of him in that piece are something else.

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