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Also, the stimulus payments and UE may have increased inflation inflation (which was a good thing at the time) on their own, but a big part of it was combined with the pandemic changing habits and supply chains dramatically. All of sudden, people had a ton of extra free time and money they couldn't spend on the movies/restaurants/bars. So, demand for stuff like Nintendo Switches, Pelotons, and certain other durable goods exploded at the same time that supplies were cut short. That was why they were selling PS5s, Pelotons, webcams, and laptops for 400% MSRP and still selling out for about a year straight. Inflation basically went up around the same rate in every major country at the exact same time, so Americans would have to have been throwing all of their money all over the globe for the stimulus payments to be responsible for all of the following inflation. Nobody really honestly believes that it was the cause of global inflation in 2021 through 2023. But, it is a very useful angle to attack "big spending" policies and most people who were promoting that theory were just doing it to advocate for their preferred spending policies. Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 15:57 on Jul 7, 2023 |
# ? Jul 7, 2023 15:54 |
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# ? May 25, 2024 16:41 |
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trevorreznik posted:Main Painframe, can you link to the pre-1935 crime statistics you have?!I've never seen those and that's really.interesting. I've seen this chart floating around a fair bit, and while I'm unable to find who originally put it together (I didn't save where I found it last night, and when I search for it now I see that it's mostly being reshared by people with terrible opinions), the sourcing details seem solid enough. Note that research on pre-WWII crime rates is a bit shaky due to a lack of good data; other sources I've found say that the homicide rate fell through the 1800s to a historic low in around 1900, and then rose again to peak in the early 1930s. The best piece of research I've found for about 20th-century crime rate trends is a 1975 paper titled Homicide Trends in the United States, 1900-74. Yeah, it's old, but that's apparently a recurring trend in this field. It also contains a homicide rates chart to illustrate the pattern well: The difference in how these two charts treat the first couple decades of the century, by the way, is because Homicide Trends in the United States relies directly on the reported data, but Estimates of Early Twentieth-Century Homicide Rates believes that official numbers were widely underreported until the 1930s for various reasons (most of which come down to careless and sloppy handling and reporting of death data in that era). As a result, it discards the official numbers and attempts to instead calculate the true homicide rate using statistical analysis. In that author's view, the rising homicide rate in the early 20th century was the result of improvements in reporting practices and record-keeping, rather than an actual increase in crime. Regardless, both approaches agree on a key point: crime peaked in the early 1930s before sharply dropping, then staying at that new level until the mid-60s (aside from a brief spike when the troops were brought home in the late 40s), and then rapidly rising back to 1930s levels. As for why crime rates are so much lower in the 21st century, there's plenty of theories, but a lot of them are very obviously ideologically-motivated, and it's hard to tell with any certainty which one is correct. Even when it comes to the crime dynamics of the first half of the century, there's still plenty of competing theories. Just click the "terrible opinions" links back at the start of my post to see some absolutely loving racist criminal justice theorists claiming with a straight face that the drop in the 1930s had nothing to do with the New Deal and was entirely due to falling immigration rates reducing the number of people from crime cultures. Given that there's no big obvious event impacting the nation to the degree that the New Deal or WWII did, it's going to be a lot harder to settle on any one theory. The lead hypothesis (that the crime wave was caused by leaded gasoline) and the abortion hypothesis (that the decriminalization of abortion led to more potential criminals being aborted) both seem fairly popular in pop-discussion circles like this, but I personally don't find either one to be a satisfying theory. Personally, my view is that the high perception of high crime rates led to a relatively high level of political focus on reducing crime rates, leading authorities all over the country to put substantial resources into all sorts of efforts and initiatives and experiments to try to bring down the crime rate. That led first to a wave of ineffective policy directions like "Tough on Crime" and "War on Drugs", but after those failed to reduce crime rates, that opened the door to new directions and experimentation, some of it ineffective (like broken windows policing) and some of it more effective (like community policing). On top of that, some of the social factors that heavily destabilized cities during the 1960s, like white flight and urban decay, had slowed or even begun to reverse by the 1990s.
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# ? Jul 7, 2023 16:07 |
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I remember seeing analysis around last summer that about two thirds of the inflation was caused by global economic conditions/pandemic recovery and about a third was caused by Biden's policies. (Give or take a quarter or a sixth in each direction, just half-remembering.) If it had bumped inflation up to 4% or 5% from 2% for a few months that wouldn't have been that big of a problem, but it was unfortunate that the fiscally induced inflation came in at the same time and on top of the circumstantial inflation. It was well-timed for conservatives and centrist liberals to jump all over it and try to discredit policies like stimulus payments and the child tax credit. I'm not sure if it worked though. In October last year a a survey showed 60+% in favor of (and less than 20% against) stimulus checks to deal with inflation, and the popularity of the child tax credit expansion also seems to have rebounded (to its original state of "incredibly loving popular".) "Giving people money" memorably became a campaign issue in 2020 (no, I don't know where your $600 is!) so maybe it will again in '24. Especially if inflation continues to drop. It's also notable that the US has recovered economically from the pandemic better than pretty much any other country in the world, by a lot, not just under Biden but in the latter half of 2020 as well. (We actually passed pre-pandemic GDP before Biden even took office.) I think it's mostly the incredibly generous relief and stimulus programs of '20-'21 that did it, and even if those policies contributed to inflation that's no good argument that they weren't also the right thing to do. Without CARES, HEROES and ARA we still would've had high inflation alongside a whole host other maladies. Mellow Seas fucked around with this message at 16:18 on Jul 7, 2023 |
# ? Jul 7, 2023 16:11 |
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The bottom 60% or so of people in the US used their various covid stimulus (the direct payments, child care tax credit, etc.) to pay down existing debts. The top 20% combined the stimulus with a tremendous amount of cash-out mortgage refinances when rates cratered and went on a giant revenge spending spree. You have to remember that for the latter, those refinances alone typically resulted in $10,000 to $100,000 per household. Furthermore, that money went into the hands who already carried low or no revolving debt, and a social class of people for whom the acquisition and display of material luxuries is their main motivation (i.e. they're not actually wealthy, they can't wield influence like that, but they can buy a newer car, or a bigger pontoon boat, things like that to signal to those around them that they're standing slightly higher on the cinder pile). They were willing to pay the premium (and thus feed further into current and future inflation expectations) because they wanted all their new stuff immediately, as a psychological pacifier from being unable to handle wearing a mask in public and not being able to eat inside a restaurant.
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# ? Jul 7, 2023 16:15 |
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single-mode fiber posted:The top 20% combined the stimulus with a tremendous amount of cash-out mortgage refinances when rates cratered and went on a giant revenge spending spree. You have to remember that for the latter, those refinances alone typically resulted in $10,000 to $100,000 per household. Furthermore, that money went into the hands who already carried low or no revolving debt
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# ? Jul 7, 2023 16:18 |
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Main Paineframe posted:I've seen this chart floating around a fair bit, and while I'm unable to find who originally put it together (I didn't save where I found it last night, and when I search for it now I see that it's mostly being reshared by people with terrible opinions), the sourcing details seem solid enough. That's really interesting, thanks.
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# ? Jul 7, 2023 16:20 |
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Yeah MPF great stuff, that's why we come here.
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# ? Jul 7, 2023 16:21 |
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License plate readers are being used by Sheriffs in states where abortion is legal to aid in the prosecution of residents of states where it's illegal. They're doing this even in states where it's illegal to share the information. https://twitter.com/brat2381/status/1676986194012540930?s=20 https://news.yahoo.com/sacramento-sheriff-sharing-license-plate-133000119.html?soc_src=social-sh&soc_trk=tw&tsrc=twtr quote:According to documents that the Sheriff’s Office provided EFF through a public records request, it has shared license plate reader data with law enforcement agencies in states that have passed laws banning abortion, including Alabama, Oklahoma and Texas. quote:The Sacramento County Sheriff’s Office isn’t the only one sharing that data; in May, EFF released a report showing that 71 law enforcement agencies in 22 California counties — including Sacramento County — were sharing such data. The practice is in violation of a 2015 law that states “a (California law enforcement) agency shall not sell, share, or transfer ALPR information, except to another (California law enforcement) agency, and only as otherwise permitted by law.”
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# ? Jul 7, 2023 17:57 |
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If you want to know where the inflation is coming from look at the companies that posted record increases in profits. Anyone with highly concentrated marker power took the opportunity to cash in. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/370171854_Sellers%27_inflation_profits_and_conflict_why_can_large_firms_hike_prices_in_an_emergency This is a paper specifically analyzing the phenomenon, which challenges traditional thinking about inflation (I.E why has labor done this? Blasts market until unemployment hits 5%) quote:The dominant view of inflation holds that it is macroeconomic in origin and must always be tackled with macroeconomic tightening. In contrast, we argue that the US COVID-19 inflation is predominantly a sellers’ inflation that derives from microeconomic origins, namely the ability of firms with market power to hike prices. Such firms are price makers, but they only engage in price hikes if they expect their competitors to do the same. This requires an implicit agreement which can be coordinated by sector-wide cost shocks and supply bottlenecks. We review the long-standing literature on price-setting in concentrated markets and survey earnings calls and compile firm-level data to derive a three-stage heuristic of the inflationary process: (1) Rising prices in systemically significant upstream sectors due to commodity market dynamics or bottlenecks create windfall profits and provide an impulse for further price hikes. (2) To protect profit margins from rising costs, downstream sectors propagate, or in cases of temporary monopolies due to bottlenecks, amplify price pressures. (3) Labor responds by trying to fend off real wage declines in the conflict stage. We argue that such sellers’ inflation generates a general price rise which may be transitory, but can also lead to self-sustaining inflationary spirals under certain conditions. I think this lines up with general anecdotal complaints at the time, like the sudden spike in meat prices that was disconnected from actual price at market for livestock. Dick Trauma posted:License plate readers are being used by Sheriffs in states where abortion is legal to aid in the prosecution of residents of states where it's illegal. They're doing this even in states where it's illegal to share the information. Its almost like theirs a fascist conspiracy inside the police. They literally cant help but fash out.
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# ? Jul 7, 2023 18:02 |
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Dick Trauma posted:License plate readers are being used by Sheriffs in states where abortion is legal to aid in the prosecution of residents of states where it's illegal. They're doing this even in states where it's illegal to share the information. Also none of the justices who permitted this should ever be able to have a moment’s rest again (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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# ? Jul 7, 2023 18:11 |
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To be fair, that license plate camera article says that they are sending traffic info to every state nearby, which includes states where abortion is banned, and that nobody has ever requested it for information related to abortion. They are just worried that it could theoretically be used for that at some point. One of the departments already stopped doing it. The article is pretty different than the headline.quote:In 2015, Democratic Elk Grove Assemblyman Jim Cooper voted for Senate Bill 34, which restricted law enforcement from sharing automated license plate reader (ALPR) data with out-of-state authorities. In 2023, now-Sacramento County Sheriff Cooper appears to be doing just that. Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 18:33 on Jul 7, 2023 |
# ? Jul 7, 2023 18:17 |
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Dick Trauma posted:License plate readers are being used by Sheriffs in states where abortion is legal to aid in the prosecution of residents of states where it's illegal. They're doing this even in states where it's illegal to share the information. I'm shocked that the plan to give cops more money and praise didn't result in better behavior. So when can we get serious about defunding the whole institution of government sponsored far-right thugs and starting over?
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# ? Jul 7, 2023 18:20 |
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If people read the article they'd see it wasn't as nefarious as it sounded.
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# ? Jul 7, 2023 18:32 |
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Morrow posted:If people read the article they'd see it wasn't as nefarious as it sounded. It sounds bad to me, particularly this attack against the EFF that's right out of the current right-wing extremist playbook. quote:The Sacramento County Sheriff’s Office did not respond to The Bee’s request for comment by deadline. On Wednesday, after this story published, Cooper took to Twitter to accuse the EFF of “protecting child molesters, fentanyl traffickers, rapists and murderers.”
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# ? Jul 7, 2023 18:38 |
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https://twitter.com/carlquintanilla/status/1677340587123408897 Biden has begun his transformation. The next 3500 years are going to be rough, but worth it.
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# ? Jul 7, 2023 18:41 |
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zoux posted:https://twitter.com/carlquintanilla/status/1677340587123408897
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# ? Jul 7, 2023 18:46 |
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Dick Trauma posted:License plate readers are being used by Sheriffs in states where abortion is legal to aid in the prosecution of residents of states where it's illegal. They're doing this even in states where it's illegal to share the information. The article doesn't say anywhere that the license plate data is being used to aid in anti-abortion prosecutions. That's just plain wrong. In fact, the article says exactly the opposite: that there hasn't been a single case of that happening. It's an entirely made-up scenario that the EFF cooked up out of whole cloth, probably because they realized boring privacy issues like "the cops aren't following state laws against sharing license plate photos across state lines" wouldn't garner much attention or interest on their own.
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# ? Jul 7, 2023 18:55 |
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No known cases. If the issue isn't resolved at the federal level soon we are definitely going to see prosecutions based on questionable cross-state evidence chains
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# ? Jul 7, 2023 18:58 |
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Dick Trauma posted:License plate readers are being used by Sheriffs in states where abortion is legal to aid in the prosecution of residents of states where it's illegal. They're doing this even in states where it's illegal to share the information. I'm confused, does this data sharing consist of an open database where all the listed agencies have free reign of each other's data? Or is it restricted to the department and a copy is created/given only after a formal request is made/approved? Looking through the article and the linked public records document, it's very unclear. If the former, I could see the concern. But if the latter, I don't really see an issue with this at all. As far as the Senate bill 34 referenced, is anyone here familiar with it? I started to read through it, but it's a little too long for me to skim it. The Sacramento sheriff, who claims he voted for the bill, stated it still allows sharing with out of state law agencies, it just prohibits selling the information (and notification if the data is breached). Kalit fucked around with this message at 19:15 on Jul 7, 2023 |
# ? Jul 7, 2023 19:10 |
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zoux posted:https://twitter.com/carlquintanilla/status/1677340587123408897 Thank you for this.
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# ? Jul 7, 2023 19:36 |
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Kalit posted:I'm confused, does this data sharing consist of an open database where all the listed agencies have free reign of each other's data? Or is it restricted to the department and a copy is created/given only after a formal request is made/approved? Looking through the article and the linked public records document, it's very unclear. The law in question doesn't specifically mention any sort of prohibition against sharing data across state lines. It just restricts agencies to only sharing the data with other public agencies and law enforcement agencies: quote:A public agency shall not sell, share, or transfer ALPR information, except to another public agency, and only as otherwise permitted by law. For purposes of this section, the provision of data hosting or towing services shall not be considered the sale, sharing, or transferring of ALPR information. Incidentally, that appears to be a broadening of the law, which seems to have previously only permitted sharing the data with law enforcement agencies specifically. Although the Sacramento Bee quotes the specific clause of the law they believe this practice is violating, they actually substitute out the nouns with their own. So their quote of that line reads: quote:a (California law enforcement) agency shall not sell, share, or transfer ALPR information, except to another (California law enforcement) agency, and only as otherwise permitted by law. Their interpretation appears to be based on an earlier clause in the law, which sets specific boundaries on what counts as a "public agency" for purposes of the bill: quote:“Public agency” means the state, any city, county, or city and county, or any agency or political subdivision of the state or a city, county, or city and county, including, but not limited to, a law enforcement agency. So to my eye, that lists the following as public agencies:
The question, then, is whether "any city, county, or city and county" means any city or county in California or any city or county anywhere. The Sac Bee clearly took the former interpretation, while the Sacramento Sheriff's Department no doubt took the latter interpretation.
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# ? Jul 7, 2023 19:42 |
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Morrow posted:If people read the article they'd see it wasn't as nefarious as it sounded. Wait are you saying someone on twitter posted a hot take that totally misrepresented the source material? Inconceivable (I really can't wait for twitter to die)
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# ? Jul 7, 2023 19:50 |
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Main Paineframe posted:The law in question doesn't specifically mention any sort of prohibition against sharing data across state lines. It just restricts agencies to only sharing the data with other public agencies and law enforcement agencies: Ahh okay, that makes a lot more sense. Thank you for this clarification!
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# ? Jul 7, 2023 19:51 |
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Main Paineframe posted:I've seen this chart floating around a fair bit, and while I'm unable to find who originally put it together (I didn't save where I found it last night, and when I search for it now I see that it's mostly being reshared by people with terrible opinions), the sourcing details seem solid enough. Discendo Vox fucked around with this message at 20:15 on Jul 7, 2023 |
# ? Jul 7, 2023 20:11 |
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Anti-abortion states are fascist run so I can see the concern with any data sharing that legitimizes fascist states and could possibly assist them.
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# ? Jul 7, 2023 20:13 |
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Main Paineframe posted:The article doesn't say anywhere that the license plate data is being used to aid in anti-abortion prosecutions. That's just plain wrong. In fact, the article says exactly the opposite: that there hasn't been a single case of that happening. I'm not sure we should wait until information shared with a state which has criminalized abortions or "abortion trafficking" actually gets someone jailed or killed to be concerned about blue state cops working with red state cops. We've seen blue state cops engage in all kind of heinous behavior up-to and including smuggling armed neo-nazi groups into protests and providing them a snipers nest.
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# ? Jul 7, 2023 20:39 |
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I’m not a big fan of license plate readers to begin with, although at least with them I do see the potential good that they can do and I have a hard time balancing that against the inherent privacy violation I feel being tracked continuously like that. But then a lot of people leave the GPS on their phone on all the time and share their location with family which I consider to be absolutely insane so I may be in the minority now on the preference for privacy.
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# ? Jul 7, 2023 20:42 |
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Four Dollars posted:I'm not sure we should wait until information shared with a state which has criminalized abortions or "abortion trafficking" actually gets someone jailed or killed to be concerned about blue state cops working with red state cops. We've seen blue state cops engage in all kind of heinous behavior up-to and including smuggling armed neo-nazi groups into protests and providing them a snipers nest. If cops want to share abortion-related data with another state to specifically get someone jailed, they would just stake out a clinic that performed abortions and take pictures of out of state license plates. The only way I could see how shared ALPR data would create a higher risk is if other states had free reign to this data. Or if there was an ALPR that could read license plates in a parking lot of a clinic that performed abortions Kalit fucked around with this message at 20:56 on Jul 7, 2023 |
# ? Jul 7, 2023 20:47 |
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Gumball Gumption posted:Venture capital investments are down 53%, the economy is bad. Every start up I know has been spending the year either scrambling for funding that has tried up or are preparing for a recession/market downturn. All the VC collapse indicates is that the "light cash on fire for years and pray that it appeases the profit gods enough for a random slam dunk success" business model doesn't work without 0% interest rates. Edit: Tech startups might now need actual business plans and ways to show they can bring in a profit at literally any point. How horrifying. Roadie fucked around with this message at 21:11 on Jul 7, 2023 |
# ? Jul 7, 2023 21:04 |
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Gumball Gumption posted:Anti-abortion states are fascist run so I can see the concern with any data sharing that legitimizes fascist states and could possibly assist them. mod hat: I didn't really want to probe this, I just wanted to gently observe that a blunt take this hot and spicy could probably be helped with some kind of a source or an argument crafted with a bit more care than this? I'm not necessarily saying I disagree, but it is kind of hard to respond to this without being on the side of fascism.
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# ? Jul 7, 2023 22:17 |
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:All of sudden, people had a ton of extra free time and money they couldn't spend on the movies/restaurants/bars. So, demand for stuff like Nintendo Switches, Pelotons, and certain other durable goods exploded at the same time that supplies were cut short. Recently, the market has...not collapsed, but drat near close, with prices returning to basically pre-pandemic levels in a lot of cases and stuff like the Mirage sealed box going for 2-3k again. many who invested heavily in old MTG stuff during the pandemic have largely taken a bath on stuff, as people stop having so much free time and those who didn't need the stimulus but got it regardless used it on frivolous things.
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# ? Jul 7, 2023 22:27 |
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Dick Trauma posted:License plate readers are being used by Sheriffs in states where abortion is legal to aid in the prosecution of residents of states where it's illegal. They're doing this even in states where it's illegal to share the information. I came across a somewhat interrelated story that was linked from a new Klippenstein piece on the Intercept, although the referred story was published several weeks ago. This surveillance, however, is happening at the federal level. Cliffs bolded instead of restated. quote:U.S. MARSHALS SPIED ON ABORTION PROTESTERS USING DATAMINR Klip's current piece about the FBI using the surveillance contractor that replaced Dataminr is worth a read, too.
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# ? Jul 7, 2023 22:49 |
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Rigel posted:mod hat: I didn't really want to probe this, I just wanted to gently observe that a blunt take this hot and spicy could probably be helped with some kind of a source or an argument crafted with a bit more care than this? I'm not necessarily saying I disagree, but it is kind of hard to respond to this without being on the side of fascism. I think the EFF is in the right to bring up possible concerns and the argument that it is normal does not mean it is the correct action for police in California to take and it makes sense for activists to make an attempt to block it because anti-abortion states are, if not fascist because that's a loaded term but we do like saying that the Republicans are fascists, directly harming people with inhumane laws.
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# ? Jul 7, 2023 23:09 |
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Gumball Gumption posted:I think the EFF is in the right to bring up possible concerns and the argument that it is normal does not mean it is the correct action for police in California to take and it makes sense for activists to make an attempt to block it because anti-abortion states are, if not fascist because that's a loaded term but we do like saying that the Republicans are fascists, directly harming people with inhumane laws. Have any of these mass surveillance things ever not ended up abused? We have to factor the abuse into the cost/benefit analysis of doing it in the first place. How many crimes get foiled by ALPRs? How many of those rely on ALPR data being held for more than a day? Scrubbing the data daily would put at ease a lot of my concerns.
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# ? Jul 7, 2023 23:23 |
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https://twitter.com/satanic_temple_/status/1677344745901682690?t=t9HLwpECZ92MpJxV4qbrOw&s=19 So, who remembers a few years ago when Jason Rapert installed a 10 Commandments monument in a courthouse/some sort of local government building? And the Satanic Temple offered a Baphomet statue so that it wouldn't look like the government was playing favorites with religion? Obviously this Twitter thread is biased, but, here you go
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# ? Jul 8, 2023 00:06 |
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Gumball Gumption posted:I think the EFF is in the right to bring up possible concerns and the argument that it is normal does not mean it is the correct action for police in California to take and it makes sense for activists to make an attempt to block it because anti-abortion states are, if not fascist because that's a loaded term but we do like saying that the Republicans are fascists, directly harming people with inhumane laws. yeah, I think I agree with all of that. I am just selfishly hoping you might choose to post with a bit more tact to generate maybe 1.5 fewer reports/week for me to look at.
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# ? Jul 8, 2023 00:29 |
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Dick Trauma posted:It sounds bad to me, particularly this attack against the EFF that's right out of the current right-wing extremist playbook. Call me crazy but I do think that criminals actually are aware of state lines.
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# ? Jul 8, 2023 01:09 |
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Rigel posted:yeah, I think I agree with all of that. I am just selfishly hoping you might choose to post with a bit more tact to generate maybe 1.5 fewer reports/week for me to look at. I can't really control other people's emotions but sure. Might want to bring it up with folks making reports you don't think are worth pulling the trigger on. Was it the coaster posts?
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# ? Jul 8, 2023 03:46 |
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the_steve posted:https://twitter.com/satanic_temple_/status/1677344745901682690?t=t9HLwpECZ92MpJxV4qbrOw&s=19 I open it and it only shows me the initial tweet, is the compromise elmo made with not logged in people to just make it so you can see posts but not replies
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# ? Jul 8, 2023 04:17 |
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# ? May 25, 2024 16:41 |
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Captain Invictus posted:I open it and it only shows me the initial tweet, is the compromise elmo made with not logged in people to just make it so you can see posts but not replies Must be, there were liking 20 replies by the OP in the thread
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# ? Jul 8, 2023 04:18 |