(Thread IKs:
fatherboxx)
|
Absurd Alhazred posted:Are there no limits to what you'd be willing to supply Ukraine if they asked for it? If we (the US) would use it in the same situation, Ukraine should have access to it. If we wouldn't use it, we don't have it because it doesn't make sense to have something you'd never use*. So in general, if we have it and we don't need it short term, we should offer it. *I'm excepting nuclear weapons for obvious reasons - we shouldn't be giving those out, nor should we be using them in the same situation.
|
#
?
Jul 8, 2023 00:08
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 1, 2024 15:35 |
|
|
We probably shouldn't give Ukraine nuclear weapons.
|
|
#
?
Jul 8, 2023 00:08
|
|
|
What's the delivery mechanism for the cluster munitions in question? HIMARS? Or are they literally in an artillery shell form factor?;
|
|
#
?
Jul 8, 2023 00:09
|
|
|
Hieronymous Alloy posted:We probably shouldn't give Ukraine nuclear weapons. I specifically said that.
|
|
#
?
Jul 8, 2023 00:12
|
|
|
cr0y posted:What's the delivery mechanism for the cluster munitions in question? HIMARS? Or are they literally in an artillery shell form factor?; They probably come in many forms but per the CNN interview with Biden, the ones being sent now are compatible with 155mm artillery. https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/07/politics/joe-biden-cluster-munitions-ukraine/ quote:“This is a war relating to munitions. And they’re running out of that ammunition, and we’re low on it,” Biden said. “And so, what I finally did, I took the recommendation of the Defense Department to – not permanently – but to allow for this transition period, while we get more 155 weapons, these shells, for the Ukrainians.”
|
|
#
?
Jul 8, 2023 00:12
|
|
|
OddObserver posted:That's not readable beyond first post for people w/o twitter accounts... https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1677435161514737665.html edit-f,b so bad
|
|
#
?
Jul 8, 2023 00:13
|
|
|
I would much rather prefer if Ukraine had jets by now. Very unfortunate that it had to come to this.
|
|
#
?
Jul 8, 2023 00:13
|
|
|
Cpt_Obvious posted:I feel like they said the same thing about all those tanks and javelins too. And if it wasn't for those supplies it would be armour and anti-armour weapons that were the bottleneck. Anti-tank weapons were the thing they needed to save Kyiv and defeat Russia's northern assault, HIMARS was the thing they needed to cut off Russian supply and defeat their southern assault. Tanks are the thing they needed the mount a counterattack, and artillery ammo is the thing they need to speed it up. That's how it works, when we give them more artillery ammo, they'll do more until they reach the next bottleneck. Also if you want me to spoil it for you, that bottleneck is going to be F16s.
|
|
#
?
Jul 8, 2023 00:43
|
|
|
Paladinus posted:I would much rather prefer if Ukraine had jets by now. Very unfortunate that it had to come to this. MiG-29 is a jet  (yes I know what you mean, but just want to clarify that they have fighters and have received more during the war, the issue is that MiGs can't use most missiles available from west while Russia has newer missiles)
|
|
#
?
Jul 8, 2023 00:50
|
|
|
Tuna-Fish posted:I am not a radar expert either, but I have to note that the rate of advancement in commercial mmWave radars has been insane in the past few years. You can now get kilometers of range on literally a single chip, with ability to not just pick up targets but to clearly view their surface detail down to centimeter level, at a cost of a few dollars and less power use than an incandescent lamp. We went from "usable AA radar is large enough it needs it's own specialist vehicle, costs enough that it's the largest line item for that vehicle, and requires the vehicles engine to be revving to be on" to "lol we could ship an equivalent radar on everyone's personal weapon for less cost than an iphone per shooter if there was need" so fast that there hasn't been time to actually field anything in between. This development has been fueled by the self-driving craze, and might be the single most impactful thing that came out of it. Radar is not effective in all cases and layers of drone detection are basically essential for good counterdrone operations - RF, acoustic, radar, camera, can all be used as part of one apparatus. Particularly in sensitive areas, radar can be useless because it can interfere with other waves being sent out, such as at an airport. Also, this isn't you, but someone mentioned nets for drone mitigation? Yeah, those can work, but there's also drone jammers that break the signal between pilot and drone, you can hack the drone, etc.
|
|
#
?
Jul 8, 2023 01:23
|
|
|
WarpedLichen posted:They probably come in many forms but per the CNN interview with Biden, the ones being sent now are compatible with 155mm artillery. Pretty vague on what's being sent but I think it points to what I said earlier. 155mm ADAM/RAAM scatterable mines.
|
|
#
?
Jul 8, 2023 01:49
|
|
|
TK-42-1 posted:Wasn’t the highway of death a shitload of cluster bombs or am I remembering that wrong? That would be during the 90-91 Gulf War, yes. Thanks to the goons who posted links to use during iIraq 2 and during Afghanistan (i.e. this century). I appreciate it BillsPhoenix posted:I can't believe US is low on ammo. Low on 90s era ammo that's been allocated for combat in Europe maybe. Maybe not a great example. In the late 90s we had enough ammunition for a Corps-sized element to fight for 90 days. In the mid-2000s you basically couldn't buy 5.56mm in the US because if Iraq and Afghanistan. I'm certain the US is reserving enough for a contingency (cough Taiwan cough), but it would not be surprising at all if ammunition stocks were quite low at the moment. cr0y posted:What's the delivery mechanism for the cluster munitions in question? HIMARS? Or are they literally in an artillery shell form factor?; 105mm howitzers, 155mm howitzers, and MLRS/HIMARS rockets (the smaller 6-packs, though an ATACMS cluster variant exists). There are also bombs, which I could see being provided for using the individual submunitions with small drones.
|
|
#
?
Jul 8, 2023 02:46
|
|
|
KillHour posted:Those munitions were designed to be used in places where the children are brown and therefore don't factor into the calculus. They were designed to be used in 1980s West Germany against Soviet tank armies charging through the Fulda Gap.
|
|
#
?
Jul 8, 2023 03:11
|
|
|
Ynglaur posted:That would be during the 90-91 Gulf War, yes. so far they're only providing 155mm ones, though I think it's not unlikely that once that can of worms is opened others will end up on the table, particularly gmlrs, of which significant stocks exist. as to the last part, those have been provided since early in the war for that purpose, yes, though idk who was actually providing them. turkey was quietly providing us made dpicms as far back as late 2022, though it wasn't reported on until several months later. source on the turkey stuff, https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/01/10/turkey-cold-war-cluster-bombs-ukraine/ Herstory Begins Now fucked around with this message at 03:50 on Jul 8, 2023 |
|
#
?
Jul 8, 2023 03:12
|
|
|
KillHour posted:Those munitions were designed to be used in places where the children are brown and therefore don't factor into the calculus. I'm sorry if this disappoints your worldview, but not everything is determined by racial injustice. Far too many things are! But we shouldn't cheapen those actual, very real injustices with made-up bullshit. DPICM was designed to take out concentrations of conventional forces in Western Europe.
|
|
#
?
Jul 8, 2023 03:46
|
|
|
I was being flippant to make a joke but yeah, you're obviously right.
|
|
#
?
Jul 8, 2023 04:46
|
|
|
Oh, sorry for jumping down your throat then. 
|
|
#
?
Jul 8, 2023 04:50
|
|
|
Nah it's cool. It was a dumb comment and people say stupid/wrong poo poo earnestly all the time so it's good to correct it.
|
|
#
?
Jul 8, 2023 04:54
|
|
|
My take is that employing cluster munitions is going to cause years of UXO hazards for Ukrainian civilians, but those hazards pale in comparison to the hazards of not kicking out the Russians. Every day the Russians aren't sent home are days they're planting minefields they have no intention of ever clearing, wantonly abusing and murdering civilians & pows, booby-trapping civilian homes, and dumping millions of pounds of UXO on the country. Cluster munitions are a hellish weapon that shouldn't have been made, but the stockpile is here now, and it will probably save more lives to hand it over than to destroy it. HolHorsejob fucked around with this message at 06:34 on Jul 8, 2023 |
|
#
?
Jul 8, 2023 06:07
|
|
|
HolHorsejob posted:My take is that employing cluster munitions is going to cause years of UXO hazards for Ukrainian civilians, but those hazards pale in comparison to the consequences of the hazards of not kicking out the Russians. That is pretty much where I am at in this horrific situation, as well.
|
|
#
?
Jul 8, 2023 06:28
|
|
|
Does the calculus for supplying this sort of ammunition remain the same even if one comes to the conclusion that Ukraine is unlikely to recapture the annexed oblasts? Obviously that's not the sort of thing that can be viewed with any sort of certainty right now, but if we operate on the mindset of "whatever harms are incurred to repulse Russian forces are outweighed by the actions of those forces before they are repulsed", things get a bit awkward if we don't check that mindset if a stalemate starts to look likely Paladinus posted:I would much rather prefer if Ukraine had jets by now. Very unfortunate that it had to come to this. Regarding aircraft, are there bases within Ukraine that are able to provide a launch point for these jets if / when Ukraine gets them? Considering the lengths to which Russia has propagated its bombing campaign, it feels like a tall order to have an airstrip that's operational within Ukraine proper A big flaming stink fucked around with this message at 06:56 on Jul 8, 2023 |
|
#
?
Jul 8, 2023 06:52
|
|
|
Nenonen posted:Now if you could somehow hit the planes themselves as they're preparing for take off or taxing to hangars..! Airstrip no, a bulldozer and a backhoe can repair an airstrip. Airframes... you could do a billion dollars in damage in one pop if you catch the Tu-160s or MIG-31Ks on the ground and out of their shelters.
|
|
#
?
Jul 8, 2023 07:24
|
|
|
Chalks posted:The dud rate of the cluster munitions that the US is sending to Ukraine is around 2-3%. So for every cluster bomb with 88 submunitions, that's about 2 dud submunitions. If America sends 10,000 and Ukraine fires them all, that's 20,000 dud submunitions. What proportion of dud submunitions are picked up by children, 10%? 50%?
|
|
#
?
Jul 8, 2023 08:19
|
|
|
The defense.gov release if anybody hasn't seen it yet: https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3451570/biden-administration-announces-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/ quote:Additional munitions for Patriot air defense systems; I wanted to note the Penguin C - which is from a Latvian firm. I think the US army actually contracted with them only in June 2022, so its a fairly new system to the US military. Ukraine already have at least 10 of these systems, donated by United 24. But its kind of an interesting gas powered drone, which seems fairly comparable to the much praised Orlan-10. Kinda neat, wonder if this platform will see broader use.
|
|
#
?
Jul 8, 2023 08:30
|
|
|
Enjoy posted:So for every cluster bomb with 88 submunitions, that's about 2 dud submunitions. If America sends 10,000 and Ukraine fires them all, that's 20,000 dud submunitions. What proportion of dud submunitions are picked up by children, 10%? 50%? Likely less than the amount of children Russia kidnapped from Ukraine so far, and the number further goes down as the population is made aware of those weapons and can educate their children to avoid them.
|
|
#
?
Jul 8, 2023 08:47
|
|
Enjoy posted:So for every cluster bomb with 88 submunitions, that's about 2 dud submunitions. If America sends 10,000 and Ukraine fires them all, that's 20,000 dud submunitions. What proportion of dud submunitions are picked up by children, 10%? 50%? Given that those cluster bombs are most likely going to be used as a demining tool, they will probably reduce the number of unexploded munitions in the area.
|
|
|
#
?
Jul 8, 2023 09:09
|
|
|
Enjoy posted:So for every cluster bomb with 88 submunitions, that's about 2 dud submunitions. If America sends 10,000 and Ukraine fires them all, that's 20,000 dud submunitions. What proportion of dud submunitions are picked up by children, 10%? 50%? Do you expect that the first thing Ukrainians will do after this is over is build kindergartens and orphanages in former Russian fortified areas? While the Russian trenches and anti-tank ditches might be fun places to play hide and seek, those areas will have to be restricted from civilians until bomb crews have cleared them.
|
|
#
?
Jul 8, 2023 10:00
|
|
|
Enjoy posted:So for every cluster bomb with 88 submunitions, that's about 2 dud submunitions. If America sends 10,000 and Ukraine fires them all, that's 20,000 dud submunitions. What proportion of dud submunitions are picked up by children, 10%? 50%? Several millions artillery shells/mortar rounds/rockets have been fired in this war already with many of those having been produced in Europe & the US. Eastern Ukraine is absolutely littered with unexploded ordinances and the horse has been out of the barn for a long time now.
|
|
#
?
Jul 8, 2023 10:08
|
|
|
GaussianCopula posted:Given that those cluster bombs are most likely going to be used as a demining tool, they will probably reduce the number of unexploded munitions in the area. I haven't seen anything to indicate this, every news article says they are intended for use against dispersed tanks and infantry. GABA ghoul posted:Several millions artillery shells/mortar rounds/rockets have been fired in this war already with many of those having been produced in Europe & the US. Eastern Ukraine is absolutely littered with unexploded ordinances and the horse has been out of the barn for a long time now. That doesn't mean it's okay to make the problem even worse. Nenonen posted:Do you expect that the first thing Ukrainians will do after this is over is build kindergartens and orphanages in former Russian fortified areas? While the Russian trenches and anti-tank ditches might be fun places to play hide and seek, those areas will have to be restricted from civilians until bomb crews have cleared them. The Russians are also located inside cities. Umbreon posted:Likely less than the amount of children Russia kidnapped from Ukraine so far, and the number further goes down as the population is made aware of those weapons and can educate their children to avoid them. Insane reply.
|
|
#
?
Jul 8, 2023 10:21
|
|
|
Enjoy posted:The Russians are also located inside cities. And incidentally cluster munitions are of less use in built up areas, you need bigger explosives to bust a concrete building. Ukraine can also decide themselves which areas are good for their use. But I'm sure you already knew that, you sound like an expert and not just some big mouth on the Internet.
|
|
#
?
Jul 8, 2023 10:29
|
|
|
Nenonen posted:And incidentally cluster munitions are of less use in built up areas, you need bigger explosives to bust a concrete building. Ukraine can also decide themselves which areas are good for their use. But I'm sure you already knew that, you sound like an expert and not just some big mouth on the Internet. Thank god the Ukrainian high command are omniscient beings I guess, our diligence is done and our hands are clean.
|
|
#
?
Jul 8, 2023 10:32
|
|
|
Enjoy posted:What proportion of dud submunitions are picked up by children, 10%? 50%? I can't imagine this percentage starts with anything but a decimal point. Maybe slightly higher?
|
|
#
?
Jul 8, 2023 10:34
|
|
|
Enjoy posted:I haven't seen anything to indicate this, every news article says they are intended for use against dispersed tanks and infantry. I agree with you that the people of Ukraine would be much better served by massive deliveries of F-16s, guided rocket artillery, tanks and IVFs. Cluster munitions are a poor substitute for that and there should be much more pressure on western politicians to increase deliveries of the really important stuff to save lives.
|
|
#
?
Jul 8, 2023 10:49
|
|
|
GABA ghoul posted:I agree with you that the people of Ukraine would be much better served by massive deliveries of F-16s, guided rocket artillery, tanks and IVFs. Cluster munitions are a poor substitute for that and there should be much more pressure on western politicians to increase deliveries of the really important stuff to save lives. I'm not sure that is the right way. I'm not even sure if Ukrainians should be given anything, even pistols. In combat guns get lost and then children can find them and use them as toys 
|
|
#
?
Jul 8, 2023 11:04
|
|
|
Enjoy posted:Insane reply. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Child_abductions_in_the_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine
|
|
#
?
Jul 8, 2023 11:10
|
|
|
Enjoy posted:
You are right, of course. I've sent Putin a stern letter telling him he should stop using cluster munitions. I'm sure the Russians will stop using them any day now. Enjoy posted:Thank god the Ukrainian high command are omniscient beings I guess, our diligence is done and our hands are clean. I think you're comparing them to your own mental capacities there, buddy. Fake edit: In some actual news, the Brits seem to believe Russia may lack the necessary reserves to hold Bachmut. Which lends credence to the rumors that a breakthrough on that front may be imminent. From a bit further down the newsblog: RedaktionsNetzwerk Deutschland made a telephone interview with an Ukrainian officer. He claims the fighting on both sides is constant, intense, and very bitter. North of Bachmut he reports Russia has concentrated a sizable force of modern tanks and artillery, and both sides hit each other with all they can. Still, the Ukrainian army advances on average 500-1500 m each day, despite the Russians fighting tooth and nail over every trench. Both sides are apparently highly motivated to kill each other down to the last man.
|
|
#
?
Jul 8, 2023 11:18
|
|
|
GaussianCopula posted:Given that those cluster bombs are most likely going to be used as a demining tool, they will probably reduce the number of unexploded munitions in the area. Cluster munitions cannot be used for demining, anymore than B-52s can. Even MICLICs don't really demine: they just throw things out of the way. Technically, MICLICs make subsequent clearing a bit harder because now all of those explosives you threw out of the lane are less stable. That's worth getting a clear lane through a minefield, though. But carpeting a minefield with explosives unfortunately does not remove said minefield. Enjoy posted:Thank god the Ukrainian high command are omniscient beings I guess, our diligence is done and our hands are clean. Unless you're a committed pacifist, nobody's hands are clean the moment you choose to defend yourself or another. What's your point?
|
|
#
?
Jul 8, 2023 11:51
|
|
|
Yes no poo poo, how does that mean it's okay to kill future Ukrainian children with unexploded ordnance? Afghanistan: "When researchers analysed 5471 incidents of individuals injured or killed by these devices between 2002 and 2006, they found that 2749 (50.3%) were caused by unexploded ordnance and 2314 (42.3%) by landmines. An unknown device caused the rest. The proportion of deaths and injuries caused by unexploded ordnance rose from 48.4% in 2002 to 58.8% in 2006 (P< 0.001). Almost half the deaths and injuries in this study were in children (2580, 47.2%), and of these 1687 (65%) were attributed to unexploded ordnance. Tampering accounted for an increasing proportion of injuries to children and adults, rising from 8.3% in 2002 to 25.6% by 2006 (P< 0.001). Most tampering incidents involved unexploded ordnance rather than landmines." https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1941874/ Syria: "On average 9 children per month have been verified as killed or injured by explosive ordnance between March 2011 and December 2019" https://www.unmas.org/sites/default/files/eo_impact_on_children_in_syria_wos_child_protection_mine_action_aors_december_2020.pdf Laos: "Bombs don’t just kill during wartime, they remain live for decades. While no one knows the exact figures, upwards of 20,000 Laotians have been killed or injured by unexploded ordnance (UXO) since the end of the war. There were 63 accidents in 2021 alone. Even though the numbers are falling, Laotians are still being killed and injured as a result of a conflict that ended five decades ago. Of these, 45% are children." https://www.theguardian.com/global-...bombs-from-laos
|
|
#
?
Jul 8, 2023 11:59
|
|
|
Libluini posted:You are right, of course. I've sent Putin a stern letter telling him he should stop using cluster munitions. I'm sure the Russians will stop using them any day now. Putin is a dictator waging an illegal war of aggression. Why do you want the rest of the world to follow his moral standards?
|
|
#
?
Jul 8, 2023 12:01
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 1, 2024 15:35 |
|
|
I don't, but I also don't want to allow him to win said war of aggression and move on to planning his next one
|
|
#
?
Jul 8, 2023 12:04
|
|
