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fatherboxx)
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HolHorsejob posted:I see Erdoğan playing Putin at his own game (agreements are only valid until I have an opportunity to flagrantly break them, and you are weak for thinking otherwise) This is the whole game of Erdogan, though! Or perhaps more accurately, his game is "agreements are only valid until I want to catch your attention by flagrantly breaking them".
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Jul 8, 2023 21:25
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Erdogan occupies the same peripheral role that Putin does, with two caveats: Turkey is nominally weaker than Russia but Turkey is also tied to the West militarily. This means he pursues a different strategy than Putin while being very comparable to him. Balancing between NATO and Russia has been Erdogan's game for the whole war, since Turkey is benefitting from re-exporting western goods to Russia while cannibalizing bits of Russia's ME and Caucasus influence. It's why he's holding off on Sweden's NATO membership: it gives him a great bargaining chip. The dial has just moved a little bit more towards NATO as Putin weakens.
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Jul 8, 2023 21:29
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Morrow posted:Erdogan occupies the same peripheral role that Putin does, with two caveats: Turkey is nominally weaker than Russia but Turkey is also tied to the West militarily. This means he pursues a different strategy than Putin while being very comparable to him. What I don't quite understand is how Sweden's Nato application is a better bargaining chip than Finland's. From a Russian perspective it seems like Finland is way more relevant than Sweden, what with the history and the border. Is he holding up Sweden instead because our problems with for example islamophobia give him an excuse he lacks for Finland, or is he holding us up only because of that, with Russia not being a factor at all?
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Jul 8, 2023 22:14
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There's likely to be less pressure on Erdogan to accept Sweden's application ASAP, precisely because of the fact that Finland as a NATO member is more important in the short term. As for "reasons", Erdogan works exactly like Putin - he will conjure justifications out of thin air as long as he needs any, and by stringing Sweden along he can repeatedly try to extort concessions and look strong in the eyes of his supporters, without actually crippling NATO and piss off the other members too much (or any more than he already does).
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Jul 8, 2023 22:28
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Irony Be My Shield posted:I guess the idea is that playing both sides is less appealing when one of those sides is clearly on the verge of collapse. Which of those sides is clearly on the verge of collapse though? Economically Turkey is in a much, much worse state than Russia. The Turkish economy is an absolute dumpster fire, with Erdogan squeezing on lighter fluid, and they ran out of net foreign reserves recently. The Turkish lira is guaranteed to lose an additional 50-80% in the next two years, and it's already lost 80% in the past three years. If they had pegged their currency to the Euro before, they would be staring at a complete currency collapse like Lebanon did in 2019 because they maintained their USD peg way too long. Instead a slide of 95% over five years is probably just not-catastrophic-enough to result in a de facto euro-ization/dollarization of the economy. Already property in Turkey - even sold between Turkish residents - is *publicly* priced and sold in foreign currencies, and it has been for some time. (At least since 2021, but possibly way before this, I don't know.) Erdogan needs to stay on the good side of both Russia and Europe, or rather continue his current line straddling of having both sides dislike, but not hate, him. Saladman fucked around with this message at 22:54 on Jul 8, 2023 |
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Jul 8, 2023 22:49
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Ynglaur posted:Former tank platoon leader and mechanized scout platoon leader. I've driven, fired, and commanded M1A1s (the "heavy" variant) in Korea, M1A2s in garrison in the States, and M3A2 (the cavalry version of the Bradley) in Iraq. I've also studied tactics, operations, military history, and military systems (mostly ground systems) since the mid-80s. I understand tactical logistics (convoys, logpacs, etc.), but operational logistics are a bit hand-wavey for me. Formal education is computer science, so pretty unlikely that any of the analytics shops would even glance at my resume, but I can generally read and understand their reports with good contextual understanding. That’s all great but do you look good in booty shorts? (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jul 8, 2023 22:55
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Saladman posted:Which of those sides is clearly on the verge of collapse though? Economically Turkey is in a much, much worse state than Russia. The Turkish economy is an absolute dumpster fire, with Erdogan squeezing on lighter fluid, and they ran out of net foreign reserves recently. The Turkish lira is guaranteed to lose an additional 50-80% in the next two years, and it's already lost 80% in the past three years. If they had pegged their currency to the Euro before, they would be staring at a complete currency collapse like Lebanon did in 2019 because they maintained their USD peg way too long. Instead a slide of 95% over five years is probably just not-catastrophic-enough to result in a de facto euro-ization/dollarization of the economy. Already property in Turkey - even sold between Turkish residents - is *publicly* priced and sold in foreign currencies, and it has been for some time. (At least since 2021, but possibly way before this, I don't know.) The two sides are Russia compared to NATO, I believe. And I think they don’t mean specifically economics. They’re saying that Russia’s increased downward trend is making Turkey’s straddling more complicated, and this would be them kind of searching for new footing/balance to continue the metaphor. If you’re balancing on top of two piles, and one starts collapsing, you have to be ready to move your weight. Hopefully I’m not putting too many words in another poster’s mouth.
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Jul 8, 2023 23:07
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Hey, while we're on the subject of Turkey, can we get a ban or probe lined up for this post?Somaen posted:Also seems like Erdogan is for Ukraine in NATO... Perfidious kebab... (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jul 8, 2023 23:18
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fez_machine posted:Hey, while we're on the subject of Turkey, can we get a ban or probe lined up for this post? This is a ten dollar forum where it's cool to make fun of the Holodomor because there's an academic debate whether it's a genocide, a joking way to refer to Erdogan is several orders of magnitude way below that. Are you an american with a case of the leadbrains? (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jul 8, 2023 23:41
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yeah man nothing bad has been done by people explicitly referring to certain people as 'kebabs', you just have brainworms or something
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Jul 9, 2023 00:02
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Can we get a better derail than this? What's everyone's favorite borscht recipe?
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Jul 9, 2023 00:11
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Phosphine posted:What I don't quite understand is how Sweden's Nato application is a better bargaining chip than Finland's. From a Russian perspective it seems like Finland is way more relevant than Sweden, what with the history and the border. I think the easiest explanation is that Erdogan just really personally hates Sweden. I was hoping that his hostility would be just posturing for the election a few months back, but alas, it wasn't.
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Jul 9, 2023 00:29
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Chalks posted:The relationship between Turkey and Russia is fascinating I think it's the desire to avoid acknowledging that everyone is dunking on them because of how badly they hosed up.
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Jul 9, 2023 00:51
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mutata posted:Can we get a better derail than this? What's everyone's favorite borscht recipe? Borscht should have the beets in it, not just be a clear soup. Oh and sour cream is an essential add. Poles, go ahead and fight me 
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Jul 9, 2023 00:55
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Phosphine posted:What I don't quite understand is how Sweden's Nato application is a better bargaining chip than Finland's. From a Russian perspective it seems like Finland is way more relevant than Sweden, what with the history and the border. He was gifted a can of surströmming in 2004 and never recovered.
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Jul 9, 2023 00:57
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Mederlock posted:Borscht should have the beets in it, not just be a clear soup. Oh and sour cream is an essential add. Poles, go ahead and fight me I don't think any would, but they would be mad that you didn't add dill.
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Jul 9, 2023 01:00
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I want to love beets because they are healthy but they taste like satan's butthole so
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Jul 9, 2023 01:08
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Somaen posted:This is a ten dollar forum where it's cool to make fun of the Holodomor because there's an academic debate whether it's a genocide, a joking way to refer to Erdogan is several orders of magnitude way below that. Are you an american with a case of the leadbrains? Lmao
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Jul 9, 2023 01:22
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For those defending the use of cluster munitions because it's a useful tool in fighting a war of national liberation- are there are any sorts of tools that you consider indefensible in that pursuit? Where is your line drawn in terms of weaponry or tactics?
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Jul 9, 2023 01:30
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Jon posted:For those defending the use of cluster munitions because it's a useful tool in fighting a war of national liberation- are there are any sorts of tools that you consider indefensible in that pursuit? Where is your line drawn in terms of weaponry or tactics? Anything that can be considered lethal, such as sharp edges or explosive things. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jul 9, 2023 01:36
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Mederlock posted:Borscht should have the beets in it, not just be a clear soup. Oh and sour cream is an essential add. Poles, go ahead and fight me 
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Jul 9, 2023 01:39
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Frank Frank posted:I want to love beets because they are healthy but they taste like satan's butthole so I have a foodie cousin from California who had reached adulthood without ever having had a pickled beet. So I made some, and after a couple days of pickling, I offered her one. She said "This tastes like vinegar and dirt" I said "I know, Right?!?". But she said it like it was a bad thing.
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Jul 9, 2023 01:39
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Nenonen posted:Anything that can be considered lethal, such as sharp edges or explosive things. No one in the thread is suggesting pacifism from what I've read- not sure what interpreting a question in bad faith adds to the discussion. Are there limitations to tools of war that you agree with?
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Jul 9, 2023 01:45
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Jon posted:For those defending the use of cluster munitions because it's a useful tool in fighting a war of national liberation- are there are any sorts of tools that you consider indefensible in that pursuit? Where is your line drawn in terms of weaponry or tactics? This entire argument is incredibly stupid; weapons that cause collateral damage after initial impact are already in use - mines, artillery shells, bombs, missiles; basically anything explosive becomes UXO and due to the amount being used, meaning the % increase from cluster munitions is miniscule. The land is already hosed beyond belief, even if these cluster munitions werent used, and is going to require zones setup to prevent people entering them until its cleaned up. There are still zones in Europe like zone rouge in france that people cant go: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zone_rouge Guess what? Children dont go there and pick up bombs, because the area is well known and the people are educated on the territory and the history of why it happened, the same thing that will happen in Ukraine once Russia is expelled through force, with the help of cluster munitions. The cluster munitions sent are terrible loving weapons, which only exist because terrible loving people cant stop killing others for personal gain. Blame Russia for starting a war for conquest, which has used cluster munitions the entire time, from Afganistan to Syria to Ukraine.
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Jul 9, 2023 01:45
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Jon posted:For those defending the use of cluster munitions because it's a useful tool in fighting a war of national liberation- are there are any sorts of tools that you consider indefensible in that pursuit? Where is your line drawn in terms of weaponry or tactics? Now I don't want to downplay the lethality of unexploded ordinance, but most kinds of chemical weapons are going to linger in the soil and groundwater for a lot longer so I would consider that a red line. DarklyDreaming fucked around with this message at 01:55 on Jul 9, 2023 |
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Jul 9, 2023 01:46
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bad boys for life posted:This entire argument is incredibly stupid; weapons that cause collateral damage after initial impact are already in use - mines, artillery shells, bombs, missiles; basically anything explosive becomes UXO and due to the amount being used, meaning the % increase from cluster munitions is miniscule. The land is already hosed beyond belief, even if these cluster munitions werent used, and is going to require zones setup to prevent people entering them until its cleaned up. You avoided the question, though- are there weapons you think would cause *too much* collateral damage? Is there a limit to the weapons you would prefer to see utilized in the defense of Ukraine?
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Jul 9, 2023 01:47
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Jon posted:You avoided the question, though- are there weapons you think would cause *too much* collateral damage? Is there a limit to the weapons you would prefer to see utilized in the defense of Ukraine? Because your question is nonsense. Collateral damage to who? Soldiers? Civilians? Space aliens?
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Jul 9, 2023 01:49
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bad boys for life posted:This entire argument is incredibly stupid; weapons that cause collateral damage after initial impact are already in use - mines, artillery shells, bombs, missiles; basically anything explosive becomes UXO and due to the amount being used, meaning the % increase from cluster munitions is miniscule. The land is already hosed beyond belief, even if these cluster munitions werent used, and is going to require zones setup to prevent people entering them until its cleaned up. Yeah funny how suddenly cluster weapons are the worst thing to be introduced into this conflict when it's the US supplying new ones to Ukraine.
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Jul 9, 2023 01:49
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Jon posted:No one in the thread How do you know? You just came here. And I already answered your question.
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Jul 9, 2023 01:50
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bad boys for life posted:Because your question is nonsense. Collateral damage to who? Soldiers? Civilians? Space aliens? So chemical warfare? Nuclear weaponry? 'Are there any limits to the tools you would want utilized in the defense of Ukraine' is not a nonsense question, it's just one that you seem unable to answer.
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Jul 9, 2023 01:51
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Nenonen posted:How do you know? You just came here. Nenonen posted:And I already answered your question.
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Jul 9, 2023 01:51
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Alright, fine, here you go: Ukraine should be provided with every weapon system that they ask for and can reasonably be expected to field. If they asked for NBC weapons then yeah, that would probably raise a few eyebrows but guess what; the Ukrainians aren't insane.
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Jul 9, 2023 01:54
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Jon posted:I've been lurking for about fifteen years. You're not in good faith.
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Jul 9, 2023 01:55
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Jon posted:So chemical warfare? Nuclear weaponry? 'Are there any limits to the tools you would want utilized in the defense of Ukraine' is not a nonsense question, it's just one that you seem unable to answer. No one in this entire thread has justified nuclear or chemical weapons - you brought up collateral damage due to cluster munitions, and are now trying to compare conventional explosives to chemical and nuclear weapons to get some kind of moral high ground. Cluster munitions are meant to spread out to cause damage across an area - they are literally mean to cause collateral damage to enemy armies. These are in no loving way close to chemical or nuclear weapons. You are trying to make a false equivalency. People defending the use of cluster munitions are so far from chemical and nuclear weapons that your argument is laughable. If you dont understand the difference between using cluster munitions on a battlefield where they are already in use to chemical and nuclear weapons, then you are not worth arguing with.
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Jul 9, 2023 01:58
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russia has been firing cluster bombs into civilian areas literally since the opening salvo of the war so the calculus of how to minimize collateral damage to civilians from cluster munitions is going to really heavily emphasize removing russia from Ukrainian territory
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Jul 9, 2023 01:59
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Jon posted:So chemical warfare? Nuclear weaponry? 'Are there any limits to the tools you would want utilized in the defense of Ukraine' is not a nonsense question, it's just one that you seem unable to answer. Weapons which have consequences outside the borders of Ukraine would need to be carefully considered. Consequences could include unacceptable levels of risk should a weapon fall into the wrong hands. This probably means no tactical nuclear weapons would make sense, and probably many chemical weapons would need to be held back as well. For consequences within the borders of Ukraine, that risk/benefit is for the democratically elected popularly supported leaders of Ukraine to decide.
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Jul 9, 2023 02:01
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bad boys for life posted:No one in this entire thread has justified nuclear or chemical weapons Two posts above this someone said that Ukraine should be given Nuclear, Biological or Chemical weaponry if they asked for it. The reason I asked the question that I did was because the reasoning in defense of cluster munitions could easily apply to NBC weaponry, and clearly for some folks that's accurate and consistent.
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Jul 9, 2023 02:01
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Jon posted:For those defending the use of cluster munitions because it's a useful tool in fighting a war of national liberation- are there are any sorts of tools that you consider indefensible in that pursuit? Where is your line drawn in terms of weaponry or tactics? Nukes, chemical weapons, biological agents, white phosphorus. Cluster bombs other than on trench networks and airfields not immediately adjacent to civilian areas. The best borscht I've had was at the now-closed Prince Street Cafe in Manhattan. Had the beets, had the sour cream, had brisket and pork shoulder, was amazing.
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Jul 9, 2023 02:03
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I really wish I liked cooking borscht as much as I like eating it.
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Jul 9, 2023 02:06
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Jon posted:Two posts above this someone said that Ukraine should be given Nuclear, Biological or Chemical weaponry if they asked for it. The reason I asked the question that I did was because the reasoning in defense of cluster munitions could easily apply to NBC weaponry, and clearly for some folks that's accurate and consistent. That's not what I said and you know it but okay, let's turn this around: are you legitimately worried that Ukraine is going to ask for weapons of mass destruction and be provided them? Or are you Just Asking Questions?
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Jul 9, 2023 02:08
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