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fatherboxx)
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Jon posted:How involved do I need to be before I can point out that posting to get a rise out of people and spamming off topic soup recipes is bad for discussion and against the rules while asking questions is listed as a purpose of D&D? Just Asking Questions is not actually engaging in debate or discussion. I would say Nenonen's post was snark, but it wasn't contentless; it was making the point that it's effectively impossible to do any actual 'calculus of war' here and even if you could it would be an extremely weird basis for making this decision.
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Jul 9, 2023 23:05
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Telsa Cola posted:Public information/safety campaigns do help but no public information campaign is going to have a 100% saturation rate, you are always going to have people who ignore it (kids) and or people who are just not aware or care. Certainly! No public awareness campaign will be perfect, no law will be followed by everyone, people are fallible. You could also use your quote and make it about gun ownership safety, and how people will still harm themselves or others. Yet we didn't see any concern posts/articles about the sudden influx of guns to Ukraine and their danger to the citizenry. I guess this incongruency is just one of the things that makes it hard for me to take concerns in the same vein over UXO seriously. Slightly related: Is there any recent peer conflict within say... the last 10-15 years that has put out as much UXO as this conflict? Or provided the opportunity to clear out a looot of UXO? I ask because I wonder if improvements in production/manufacturing means more recent UXO is easier to detect/dispose of compared to say, the stuff that the US covered Laos with. If all someone reads about is that kinda stuff, that could also explain some people's concern over UXO
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Jul 9, 2023 23:11
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TheDeadlyShoe posted:Just Asking Questions is not actually engaging in debate or discussion. "The purpose of D&D is educational. Posters are encouraged to ask questions, share knowledge, learn new things, and speculate, discuss, and argue interpretations and ideas." People were talking for *pages and pages* about cluster munitions and both condemning and defending their use- in what way is asking about that inappropriate or not actually engaging? Any real dialogical discourse must necessarily contain questions and since opposition to cluster munitions is pretty ubiquitous in the first world outside of the US I wanted to learn more by posing a question (generically and not to a specific user) about the reasoning involved and was met with immediate and overwhelming vitriol. Jon fucked around with this message at 23:28 on Jul 9, 2023 |
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Jul 9, 2023 23:11
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Dull Fork posted:Certainly! No public awareness campaign will be perfect, no law will be followed by everyone, people are fallible. While I dont necessarily disagree, UXO has been a relatively discussed topic and humanitarian issue worldwide for years, so it's understandable, imo, that this generated more discourse than other weapon shipments. It wasn't as intensive, but there was a somewhat similar discussion when land mines were brought up early on for similar reasons. My argument isn't necessarily that Ukraine should not use cluster munitions. My argument is that there are legitimate concerns and downsides to using cluster munitions and that people should be aware of said issues. These issues should be acknowledged and discussed before going with cluster munitions. An example of something I take issue with and have posted on is the "Well its already hosed so a little more wont have an impact" which I don't really believe is true because it really is a number's thing and more is bad. Physical removal of poo poo is still very much hands on, even if it's plowing through poo poo in an armored bulldozer. I've seen an interesting paper on chemical detection, and you can use magnetic sensing for poo poo too and the technology for that has developed/become more accesible. Telsa Cola fucked around with this message at 23:43 on Jul 9, 2023 |
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Jul 9, 2023 23:39
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Also, I'd wager that, at least in some cases, the improvements in material technology and production since Vietnam has made detecting UXO more difficult with increased usage of non-metal parts and such.
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Jul 9, 2023 23:52
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Jon posted:How involved do I need to be before I can point out that posting to get a rise out of people and spamming off topic soup recipes is bad for discussion and against the rules while asking questions is listed as a purpose of D&D? Us posting about soup recipes is as interesting, informative, and affects the war in Ukraine just as much as the current ouroboros topic du jour which right now happens to be a pointless roundabout regarding cluster munitions. I see that the next derail topic, though, is going to be this, so I wanted to get this post in so I can participate in the dialog about participating in dialogs.
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Jul 9, 2023 23:59
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Telsa Cola posted:Also, I'd wager that, at least in some cases, the improvements in material technology and production since Vietnam has made detecting UXO more difficult with increased usage of non-metal parts and such. Oof yeah, good point. Let's hope those alternate ways of detecting ordinance have improved.
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Jul 10, 2023 00:30
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Grape posted:They are never ever joining so long as Cyprus is in the EU lol, and before you ask the Erdogan admin has nonstop played hyper nationalist hardball with the crisis there, so this is some sort of gesture more than an actual attempt at anything. Full membership is pretty much out of the question. But there are intermediate steps that might be very desirable to Erdogan. His economy is cratering and his domestic currency is being rapidly replaced by the euro and the dollar in daily use. Some kind of free trade deal, similar to the one Ukraine got in 2014, would go a long way to stabilizing the economy. Telsa Cola posted:Also, I'd wager that, at least in some cases, the improvements in material technology and production since Vietnam has made detecting UXO more difficult with increased usage of non-metal parts and such. DPICM at least is very easy to detect, because it has a big honking metal part that acts as the frag jacket and shaped charge casing, designed to be easy to pick up on a metal detector.
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Jul 10, 2023 00:53
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Dull Fork posted:Oof yeah, good point. Let's hope those alternate ways of detecting ordinance have improved. A lot of systems these days, hand held and vehicle mounted, use ground penetrating radar. It's effective against just about anything that has a cataloged signature. It's very exhausting to use though (or it was in 2013 when I last used one) since you have to be able to read the output and make a determination if something is dangerous or not. And doing that while sweating bullets looks for explosive hazards is always stressful as balls.
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Jul 10, 2023 01:45
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Dirt5o8 posted:A lot of systems these days, hand held and vehicle mounted, use ground penetrating radar. It's effective against just about anything that has a cataloged signature. It's very exhausting to use though (or it was in 2013 when I last used one) since you have to be able to read the output and make a determination if something is dangerous or not. And doing that while sweating bullets looks for explosive hazards is always stressful as balls. I used a "hand held" one last year for several projects and the are indeed exhausting as gently caress to use. It's a neat technology but there are a lot of caveats to using GPR effectively, primarily to the condition/type of ground you are using it on. Definitely a good tool to consider though.
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Jul 10, 2023 02:12
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This rumor about Turkiye enforcing the grain deal by escorting Ukrainian grain ships is very interesting. To date, it's always been a question of NATO increasing the amount and type of aid without causing escalation. With this, the question would be on the Russian side. Do they try harassing the grain ships? Of so, how much could they do that before a Turkish ship shot back? What are Türkiye's "red lines"? And so forth. It just seems like a different dynamic. (And no: I don't think Russia and Türkiye start shooting over this.)
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Jul 10, 2023 02:19
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Telsa Cola posted:I used a "hand held" one last year for several projects and the are indeed exhausting as gently caress to use. It's a neat technology but there are a lot of caveats to using GPR effectively, primarily to the condition/type of ground you are using it on. Definitely a good tool to consider though. Water content of the soil fucks up GPR before anything else gets a chance, iirc. Magnetometry is nice, but can only tell you if something ferromagnetic is in your search area. Any remote sensing tool is going to be better than a shovel and old map, though  i did a bunch of remote sensing work years ago for an underwater archaeology agency that studied US Civil War shipwrecks (and some older ones too), there seems to be a little bit of overlap there.
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Jul 10, 2023 02:31
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It's also their land they're proposing using cluster munitions on. UXO are hosed up and horrible but it's not like Ukraine is leaving it for anyone else to deal with.
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Jul 10, 2023 02:52
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Telsa Cola posted:I used a "hand held" one last year for several projects and the are indeed exhausting as gently caress to use. It's a neat technology but there are a lot of caveats to using GPR effectively, primarily to the condition/type of ground you are using it on. Definitely a good tool to consider though. Exhausting as in “tedious and methodical”, “stressful”, “requiring great mental strain”, “physically taxing” or…? Like would you describe it as “exhausting” in general, even if it wasn’t UXO and just a bunch of potsherds? GPR is one of those things I always wanted to gently caress around with. I’m like a three year old with bulldozers.
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Jul 10, 2023 02:52
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Xiahou Dun posted:Exhausting as in “tedious and methodical”, “stressful”, “requiring great mental strain”, “physically taxing” or…? Like would you describe it as “exhausting” in general, even if it wasn’t UXO and just a bunch of potsherds? It's mentally and emotionally draining no matter the system. Hand helds add in physically draining as you actually carry the system. Vehicle mounted is easier on your body but just as bad as you have the sounds as well as a graphical read-out to decipher. Is that "plk-wrrrrr" just a change in soil density or a bomb? Did the ground type change? Should I have recalibrated? Am I about to die? Is someone going to shoot me while I'm looking down as the ground? gently caress it's hot/cold out her. My forearm feels like it's going to go off. Will I gently caress up and the guy behind me step on something? Just to clarify, this is still better than straight metal detectors. I used a Minehound for a handheld and a GPR-mounted Husky vehicle. Having used several older systems like a PSS-14 and GIZMO, they are great systems. It's just the job sucks. Edit:\/\/ lol yeah, I imagine you have to be much more methodical than I ever had to be. Clearing a walk/driving path is a much different ballgame than clearing an area. Dirt5o8 fucked around with this message at 03:10 on Jul 10, 2023 |
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Jul 10, 2023 03:02
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Xiahou Dun posted:Exhausting as in “tedious and methodical”, “stressful”, “requiring great mental strain”, “physically taxing” or…? Like would you describe it as “exhausting” in general, even if it wasn’t UXO and just a bunch of potsherds? Tedious and methodical since you are trying to work in a grid and keep a steady pace, physically taxing because at least the unit I was using was heavy as poo poo and unfortunately the ground is not always the easiest to go over with a rig. You can hook them up to a GPS unit (we used a trimble, so we had submeter accuracy) and record your readings. The two can be related later to figure out where a specific reading was. This is nice because sometimes you miss poo poo and it can be reviewed at the office or camp or whatever. Icon Of Sin posted:Water content of the soil fucks up GPR before anything else gets a chance, iirc. Magnetometry is nice, but can only tell you if something ferromagnetic is in your search area. Any remote sensing tool is going to be better than a shovel and old map, though Yeah water content fucks it up but also depending on the soil type if its too dry and cracks you get air voids which will also create returns. We were using it for subsurface feature detection on essentially sand, and we got quite a few false positives. You can get really nice returns off it though, it's just not guaranteed. ^^Also yeah recalibration is a pain if the ground changes and I cannot imagine doing that while getting shot at. Ours screamed at you if you went too fast and I can't imagine having to go "gently caress I need to redo that" I was an idiot and volunteered to be the only other person trained to use it. It was a neat experince but for our purposes it was too slow and too prone to false positives in our soil environment that I believe we finally convinced the client to use traditional (but more invasive) site testing measures to save everyone involved time and money. Telsa Cola fucked around with this message at 03:12 on Jul 10, 2023 |
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Jul 10, 2023 03:06
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Since this thread is fairly active, I was thinking of adding another IK. If anyone has suggestions, feel free to post them or PM me.
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Jul 10, 2023 05:31
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Dirt5o8 posted:Vehicle mounted is easier on your body but just as bad as you have the sounds as well as a graphical read-out to decipher.
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Jul 10, 2023 06:00
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I've heard of landmine-sniffing giant rats -- is there any potential use of animals for pinpointing UXO?
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Jul 10, 2023 07:02
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ShadowHawk posted:I've heard of landmine-sniffing giant rats -- is there any potential use of animals for pinpointing UXO? Rodents of unusual sniffitude? I don't believe they exist. Grape posted:Turkey: Most likely going to be vetoed by the EU member whose island they half militarily occupy while denying they exist as a sovereign nation. Lmao at Germans thinking they're the real gatekeeper on Turkey. Wait, this song sure sounds familiar...
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Jul 10, 2023 07:39
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ShadowHawk posted:I've heard of landmine-sniffing giant rats -- is there any potential use of animals for pinpointing UXO? There were supposedly some experiments with using conditioned bees and other insects to indicate UXO by detecting trace chemicals. I don't think it's been fruitful.
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Jul 10, 2023 08:48
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https://en.zona.media/article/2023/07/10/stats In addition to headcounting Russian casualties by sifting though social media for obituaries, Russian independent media Mediazona decided to use a new method to determine the total number of Russian army KIA with another data set quote:The National Probate Registry (РНД, or RND in Russian) was launched on July 1, 2014. Public access to probate case data was made available in 2018. quote:By the end of 2022, we see approximately 25,000 excess male deaths, and by May 27, 2023 (the latest date for which we have data), there are 47,000 excess deaths.
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Jul 10, 2023 08:53
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Interesting article, very transparent and welll written. They also estimate that 1.7 russians are injured enough to discharge for everyone dead russian soldier, which indicates a manpower loss of roughly 125,000 in total. This seems a smaller number than I'd expectedly from the news about Russian manpower problems, with the articles also indicating that most dead soldiers were in the 25-29 age bracket.
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Jul 10, 2023 09:20
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While I can buy the overall estimate as plausible, there's so many assumptions working in the background on how paperwork is processed and how they track to historical norms that I struggle to see how they can be 95% confident on the true losses for the Russians. Not to mention the losses from the DPR and LPR. I mean, do you consider this to be the close to the same ballpark number as US intelligence, 43k kia by Feb 2023 (likely including DPR and LR) vs 47 kia by May 2023 or different? I feel like with the precision involved, this is roughly the same number?
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Jul 10, 2023 09:47
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They aren't going to capture anyone who died broke with estate data.
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Jul 10, 2023 10:08
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:They aren't going to capture anyone who died broke with estate data. Every dead soldier gets a very significant payout for relatives to claim
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Jul 10, 2023 10:18
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fatherboxx posted:Every dead soldier gets a very significant payout for relatives to claim Unless you died on Moskva, for one
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Jul 10, 2023 10:20
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fatherboxx posted:Every dead soldier gets a very significant payout for relatives to claim Does that go via this mechanism? Also I've heard of the mod trying to cover up deaths to avoid paying out (lots of mia), but I have no idea how extensive that is. Since a large number of soldiers come from the poorest parts of Russia, I imagine data like this may significantly undercount compared to average Russians.
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Jul 10, 2023 10:22
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Chalks posted:Does that go via this mechanism? Hmm The payout for death probably goes straight to inheritors, but soldier still has an account with accumulated salary that would need the inheritance procedure to be initiated so they can claim that - for bureaucratic easiness I think it is all in one process.
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Jul 10, 2023 10:31
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fatherboxx posted:https://en.zona.media/article/2023/07/10/stats this was a really good read, thanks for posting. I wonder how much the increase in 2023 vs the 10 months of 2022 has to do with a latency in stuff hitting probate records vs the war becoming more lethal to russian men as opposed to people conscripted from occupied territories. it would also follow that an injection of a huge number of inexperienced people into the war zone would lead to a large increase of deaths, too.
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Jul 10, 2023 10:53
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Nothingtoseehere posted:Interesting article, very transparent and welll written. They also estimate that 1.7 russians are injured enough to discharge for everyone dead russian soldier, which indicates a manpower loss of roughly 125,000 in total. Keep in mind thats the absolute floor for the KIA estimate, the real deaths are higher. How much, who knows. Much like the Oryx list is the absolute floor for hardware losses, there will be a lot of losses they will not see
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Jul 10, 2023 11:17
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Hmm, so the current news in Poland is that we've apparently given Ukraine, in secret, 12 Mi 24 choppers. The source is apparently this https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-war-counteroffensive-frontlines-russia-add3e4e4 WSJ article, and I see it parroted as "WSJ source" but I had to find it myself because no polish news sties actually link to the bloody article. So this is not surprising to me in the slightest, there was an understanding that there were under-the-table arms deals between the countries as arming Ukraine is also valuable for Poland, but drat, choppers? That's a bit too close to the controversial jet issue. I understand that aerial superiority is important, and it was not pointed out what roles exactly will these fullfil, but drat that's a bit of a hot topic if you ask me. Hey but don't give us all the heat, the Czechs have given 2 as well
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Jul 10, 2023 11:36
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fatherboxx posted:https://en.zona.media/article/2023/07/10/stats This aligns with the 20k Wagner casualties that Prigozhin hinted at and Lukashenko's blabbed out for some reason. However, I wonder how much the bit about not counting LDNR still holds true. Are those regions still not in the database even if a lot of people there have Russian passports? Could it be that some people who got their passports before the formal annexation are assigned to a different region?
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Jul 10, 2023 11:49
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Kikas posted:Hmm, so the current news in Poland is that we've apparently given Ukraine, in secret, 12 Mi 24 choppers. The source is apparently this https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-war-counteroffensive-frontlines-russia-add3e4e4 WSJ article, and I see it parroted as "WSJ source" but I had to find it myself because no polish news sties actually link to the bloody article. It's not much of a game changer, helicopters can't claim air supremacy. But Hinds can be useful because they are dual role gunship transports so they can be used for insertions and evacuations even in areas where light resistance is expected.
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Jul 10, 2023 11:49
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Kikas posted:Hmm, so the current news in Poland is that we've apparently given Ukraine, in secret, 12 Mi 24 choppers. The source is apparently this https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-war-counteroffensive-frontlines-russia-add3e4e4 WSJ article, and I see it parroted as "WSJ source" but I had to find it myself because no polish news sties actually link to the bloody article. They've been given quite a few choppers already from various countries, including Mi24s. It's not that controversial. They also aren't considered some magic super weapon that everyone seems to think F16s are.
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Jul 10, 2023 11:56
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Charliegrs posted:They've been given quite a few choppers already from various countries, including Mi24s. It's not that controversial. They also aren't considered some magic super weapon that everyone seems to think F16s are. Plus they are a type they already operate
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Jul 10, 2023 12:30
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Paladinus posted:This aligns with the 20k Wagner casualties that Prigozhin hinted at and Lukashenko's blabbed out for some reason. However, I wonder how much the bit about not counting LDNR still holds true. Are those regions still not in the database even if a lot of people there have Russian passports? Could it be that some people who got their passports before the formal annexation are assigned to a different region? The horrifying L/DNR mobilization occured when the regions were recognised by Russia as independent - and the databases are probably still not fully merged after the formal annexation. I'd guess even those that took Russian pasports were still attached to local bureaucracy registers so they can't be counted in federal statistics.
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Jul 10, 2023 13:17
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fatherboxx posted:Every dead soldier gets a very significant payout for relatives to claim I don't think convict soldiers / anyone who went into Wagner get that.
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Jul 10, 2023 13:19
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Jon posted:Why not? Russia targeted civilians first, and if targeting Russian civilians would help end the war faster it would be justified, wouldn't it? Prigozhin isn't writing any more checks, so there's really no need to keep on working. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jul 10, 2023 13:31
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Mi-24s are also the best helicopters ever made I will not debate this because there is no room for debate here
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Jul 10, 2023 13:46
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