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Tiny Timbs posted:Wonder how Desantis is going to pitch the expansion of their means-tested public insurance program
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# ? Jul 12, 2023 15:09 |
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# ? May 28, 2024 16:19 |
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Same thing happened in Texas after Ike, or Rita, or one of those. TWIA, which is the state-created insurer to cover those coastal counties and Houston has been pretty successful. It was a big lift to get it done, because Republicans who don't live on the coast were like "Why should we have to pay for their bullshit. WE don't live on the coast, they should all just move". This was in the middle of one of the worst wildfire years in recent history so it rang especially hollow. FL has a similar program, Citizens Insurance, I don't know well it's run or what their customer services is like, but TWIA's been pretty good here.
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# ? Jul 12, 2023 15:12 |
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I took a look at the Citizens site and the only eligibility requirements they cite are 1) being unable to find private insurance or 2) being unable to find private insurance with premiums less than 20% over what Citizens charges so it might not be as bad as I expected. I'm sure they'll be heavily limited by available funds, though.
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# ? Jul 12, 2023 15:20 |
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Texas also has strict limits on lawsuit damages, so the liability exposure that seems to be a big problem in FL isn't really possible here.
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# ? Jul 12, 2023 15:23 |
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BiggerBoat posted:Consider me informed: Pretty much everyone but politicians stopped pretending, combined with extreme weather being increasingly common and making it difficult to argue something wasn't amiss.
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# ? Jul 12, 2023 15:27 |
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Tuberville takes one step forward and two steps back on "clarifying" his comments about white nationalism. like how you can be a "good person" while still blocking public housing, or a social safety net: you're not thinking "mwahaha i sure do hate these people", you're thinking "yeah, but what about my hypothetical neighbors who don't want to pay taxes or have a shelter nearby??" as long as their opinion can be justified by anything else than race they can't be racist. a "racist" is a person who constantly talks about race and makes descions based on race. they never talk about race and all their decisions are based on logic he's not being confusing on purpose, tuberville just refuses to look at it any other way and he has a contradictory world view.
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# ? Jul 12, 2023 15:35 |
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BiggerBoat posted:Consider me informed: I think it's a lot harder to ignore what's going on in Florida right in front of them. When you're rich and you live in a hot state, you want to be near the coasts, so I imagine it's really hard to ignore all the increased damage being done to Florida homes due to climate change.
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# ? Jul 12, 2023 15:35 |
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InsertPotPun posted:it was a pretty straightforward question you're not answering I said: Willa Rogers posted:Wait, there was a consumer boycott against Charmin? and Leon replied: Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:It was apparently Cottonelle. Different toilet paper brand. I said nothing about "an organized plot" at any point; I only asked whether there'd been an organized boycott. I also pointed out that Leon's link didn't provide any info about Cottonelle toilet paper sales being affected, but I only scanned it. I also didn't say "who said anything about boycotts????' [sic] so I'm confused as to why you're asking for explanations about things I never said. Another poster responded to your query as well: BougieBitch posted:This is just people talking past each other - obviously if you look for #BoycottBrandName you will probably find at least one random result, but that doesn't mean it was, like, a trending tag or an actual controversy that got broadly reported on. I don't consume any news shows, but I still heard about the Bud Light and Target poo poo - I have no clue what this Cottonelle thing is in reference to, but it also seems like it was literally just "an ad with a gay couple somewhere" which isnt exactly spicy in 2023 (or 2019 for that matter) - if someone is going to boycott for that they would have to boycott anyone who has a float at Pride or whatever, it's such a settled issue in comparison to the trans rights fight which is current and pressing and charged on both sides I hope this satisfies your inquiry. If not, let me know & I'll do some further research on the Cottonelle "boycott." Willa Rogers fucked around with this message at 15:47 on Jul 12, 2023 |
# ? Jul 12, 2023 15:37 |
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zoux posted:Same thing happened in Texas after Ike, or Rita, or one of those. TWIA, which is the state-created insurer to cover those coastal counties and Houston has been pretty successful. It was a big lift to get it done, because Republicans who don't live on the coast were like "Why should we have to pay for their bullshit. WE don't live on the coast, they should all just move". This was in the middle of one of the worst wildfire years in recent history so it rang especially hollow. I might be wrong, but I think it's easier to make that scheme financially sustainable in Texas because you're talking about a weather risk that is limited to a particular part of the state. The problem you have is that much more of Florida is facing climate risk. I don't think you can just move further inland because of Florida's location and its low average elevation. https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/01/business/florida-homeowner-insurance-rates/index.html That Citizens Insurance program basically needs to charge higher premiums than it does and even then, trying to offset costs with insurance/reinsurance coverage for that program is going to be more expensive. You can make insurance work there, but you need premiums to insurers at a level that can offset the inevitable need to payout for losses and they're nowhere close to that premium/payout balance.
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# ? Jul 12, 2023 15:40 |
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At some point in the future, Citizens will absolutely be insolvent. If we get hit with another Irma size storm where it affects like 75% of the state that could do the trick
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# ? Jul 12, 2023 15:44 |
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Eric Cantonese posted:I think it's a lot harder to ignore what's going on in Florida right in front of them. When you're rich and you live in a hot state, you want to be near the coasts, so I imagine it's really hard to ignore all the increased damage being done to Florida homes due to climate change. There's never going to be a comeuppance for these people, they will move the goalposts such that the problem isn't caused by what it was caused by. We will all be neck deep in sea water and GOP will still be like "It's a natural cycle bro! In the 70s they said there was going to be an Ice Age!" It's for everything, we had almost everyone in the state lose power and water for a week directly because of conservative philosophies on electric utility regulation and it cost the Republican Party nothing. I can't think of a clearer example of governing ideology -> material outcomes and not a single Republican politician in Texas paid a price for it. There's never going to be a road to Damascus moment, something like scales are never going to fall from the eyes of Republicans and make them realize that they've been wrong all along. For a few individuals, perhaps, but societally? No way. The challenge is to drag these mfs along despite knowing they are going to kick and scream the whole time and never thanking anyone for doing what was necessary to offset or fix MASSIVE SOCIAL PROBLEM Eric Cantonese posted:I might be wrong, but I think it's easier to make that scheme financially sustainable in Texas because you're talking about a weather risk that is limited to a particular part of the state. The problem you have is that much more of Florida is facing climate risk. I don't think you can just move further inland because of Florida's location and its low average elevation. That's also a good point.
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# ? Jul 12, 2023 15:44 |
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Civilized Fishbot posted:That's the weighted frequency - unweighted says 8. Looks like they got 1 Ramaswamy, 2 DeSantis, 5 Trump, and the percentages got a little rejiggered from the weighting. That's incredible. Does "weighted" mean they adjusted it to the percentage of the u.s. population that are enbies compared to the rest of the poll?
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# ? Jul 12, 2023 15:51 |
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Even without factoring in climate change at all, the huge amounts of homes in Florida (and the fact that cheap insurance and state public policy allowed them to keep getting rebuilt and built closer to the shore) that were built directly in the path of hurricanes would be an enormous problem. Part of the issue is that there were cheap/subsidized flood insurance from the federal government for decades that made it cost basically nothing and paid for a full rebuild of your house and replacement of your property. When that is an option, then nobody is just going to move, eat a loss, or change their behavior. The feds finally stopped fully subsidizing and capping the flood insurance in 2022. They still partially subsidize it, but to a much lower level. So, this thing that was never viable on its own is basically going from "fully covered with somebody else's money" to "life support" in a short amount of time. It will still be able to limp along for a while with the current federal support, but private insurers are going to get out of the game and it is going to become wildly expensive to insure. That is either going to leave the government on the hook for all of it or require people to go without insurance/choose to move.
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# ? Jul 12, 2023 15:52 |
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Willa Rogers posted:That's incredible. Does "weighted" mean they adjusted it to the percentage of the u.s. population that are enbies compared to the rest of the poll? Yes, it's a methodological tool. Give weight to subpopulations in a sample to reflect the total population's characteristics.
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# ? Jul 12, 2023 15:53 |
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Willa Rogers posted:I hope this satisfies your inquiry. If not, let me know & I'll do some further research on the Cottonelle "boycott." InsertPotPun posted:what are they tweeting about? i see people get probes because they assume you're posting in bad faith. maybe if that happens enough times around you you might be the problem? and it's definitely not a new problem.
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# ? Jul 12, 2023 15:54 |
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The California peninsula Palos Verdes might join Florida in becoming uninsurable after I read about homes caving in due to reasons not attributed to mud slides, but "land slide":quote:What’s causing luxury homes in Rolling Hills Estates to slide down a canyon? Here’s what we know https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2023-07-10/la-me-rolling-hills-landslide-explainer PVD South used to make my stomach jump even before the land started shifting, so I can't imagine driving it now. This is one of the wealthiest parts of L.A. County and also one of the prettiest.
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# ? Jul 12, 2023 15:59 |
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InsertPotPun posted:still didn't answer the question. The randos in Leon's link are "tweeting about" being mad at the toilet paper's marketing company making ads featuring gay couples, as the story said. I would like to ask that you take any moderation issues directly to the moderators, please, rather than trying to litigate them from within the thread. Thanks! Willa Rogers fucked around with this message at 16:07 on Jul 12, 2023 |
# ? Jul 12, 2023 16:02 |
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Willa Rogers posted:The California peninsula Palos Verdes might join Florida in becoming uninsurable after I read about homes caving in due to reasons not attributed to mud slides, but "land slide": What an incredibly ironic name.
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# ? Jul 12, 2023 16:04 |
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Judgy Fucker posted:Yes, it's a methodological tool. Give weight to subpopulations in a sample to reflect the total population's characteristics. That's what I thought. I'm still struck by the raw no. of enbies in a subsample of GOP voters but they could've been messing with the polling.
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# ? Jul 12, 2023 16:06 |
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Willa Rogers posted:The randos in Leon's link are "tweeting about" being mad at the toilet paper's marketing company making ads featuring gay couples, as the story said. quote:But I don't see anything about a boycott in your linked story, only a bunch of randos' tweets. it's really not hard. if you find yourself unwilling to answer the simplest of questions you're 100% telling on yourself (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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# ? Jul 12, 2023 16:21 |
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Do you think tweets are a "source"? A few tweets do not a consumer boycott make Harold Fjord fucked around with this message at 16:27 on Jul 12, 2023 |
# ? Jul 12, 2023 16:23 |
InsertPotPun posted:"i don't see anything about a boycott in the linked story, just a bunch of people tweeting about boycotting" This comes back again to the 330 million people in the US. You can find a couple people boycotting pretty much anything. Unless there is a large, organized movement it is utterly meaningless.
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# ? Jul 12, 2023 16:27 |
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InsertPotPun posted:"i don't see anything about a boycott in the linked story, just a bunch of people tweeting about boycotting" Do you have any stats on how the Cottonelle "boycott" affected sales, as we currently have for Bud Light or other organized consumer boycotts? Or links to other stories about the "boycott" beyond the one that Leon provided? And again: Willa Rogers posted:I would like to ask that you take any moderation issues directly to the moderators, please, rather than trying to litigate them from within the thread. Thanks!
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# ? Jul 12, 2023 16:31 |
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so it was less "i don't see anything about a boycott" and more "i don't see anything about an organized boycott lead by a sufficiently influential person or entity" ok
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# ? Jul 12, 2023 16:39 |
Yes, the whole point of a boycott is to be organized. If it doesn't clear that bar, it's not actually a boycott. It's just a couple disgruntled people.
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# ? Jul 12, 2023 16:45 |
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zoux posted:There's never going to be a comeuppance for these people, they will move the goalposts such that the problem isn't caused by what it was caused by. We will all be neck deep in sea water and GOP will still be like "It's a natural cycle bro! In the 70s they said there was going to be an Ice Age!" It's for everything, we had almost everyone in the state lose power and water for a week directly because of conservative philosophies on electric utility regulation and it cost the Republican Party nothing. I can't think of a clearer example of governing ideology -> material outcomes and not a single Republican politician in Texas paid a price for it. There's never going to be a road to Damascus moment, something like scales are never going to fall from the eyes of Republicans and make them realize that they've been wrong all along. For a few individuals, perhaps, but societally? No way. The challenge is to drag these mfs along despite knowing they are going to kick and scream the whole time and never thanking anyone for doing what was necessary to offset or fix MASSIVE SOCIAL PROBLEM This is generally the problem with the US (and right wing politics globally) currently, yeah. At some point you have to stop trying to extend a hand to reach across the aisle to the guys and gals that are spending all their time giving you a death glare while sharpening the metaphorical equivalent of a hatchet and instead just sock them in the face and do the right thing while they're hypocritically shrieking about unfair the whole thing is. You're never gonna convince them that they're wrong because there's financial and power based incentives that keep the whole awful mess going at multiple points internal to the party and ideology itself. So grabbing them by the neck, dragging them to something better, and then forcibly holding them there through whatever means is the only real way to progress and fix the problems the country is seeing short of a collapse of the propaganda and power structures holding their hosed up ideology together. Worse still, if you're not willing to do this you risk the bigots and other conservatives dragging things back to a more primitive and less civilized time where they can persecute, sometimes to the point of inflicting death in one way or another, on those they hate. Archonex fucked around with this message at 17:00 on Jul 12, 2023 |
# ? Jul 12, 2023 16:55 |
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Willa Rogers posted:The California peninsula Palos Verdes might join Florida in becoming uninsurable after I read about homes caving in due to reasons not attributed to mud slides, but "land slide": I love the woman thinking that something geologic not happening in 45 years means that it will never happen.
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# ? Jul 12, 2023 16:56 |
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BiggerBoat posted:No, not really. I was just surprised the % of republicans conceding that climate change is real is that high. "Its real but its not man-made" is the talking point I get a lot.
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# ? Jul 12, 2023 17:01 |
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1. "It's not real." 2. "OK it's real but it's not man-made." 3. "OK it's man-made but it's not a big deal." 4. "OK it's a big deal but there's nothing we can do about it." 5. "OK we can do something about it, and that's killing all the undesirables."
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# ? Jul 12, 2023 17:08 |
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InsertPotPun posted:so it was less "i don't see anything about a boycott" and more "i don't see anything about an organized boycott lead by a sufficiently influential person or entity" If the standards for boycott are a few people tweeting angrily, then myself and a few others are absolutely boycotting Xfinity. I will never ever give another dollar to Comcast as long as I live. It doesn't make it a boycott
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# ? Jul 12, 2023 17:13 |
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Fox News just announced they will be holding a Town Hall with Trump on July 18th hosted by Sean Hannity. But, the Town Hall has to be pre-taped and aired later that night because one of the conditions was that they be able to edit out any potentially defamatory statements before it airs.
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# ? Jul 12, 2023 17:25 |
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Fister Roboto posted:1. "It's not real." Funny thing is this post could refer to either the Republican climate change or Charmin boycott discussions.
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# ? Jul 12, 2023 17:29 |
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I'd add that someone tweeting #BoycottCottonelle may not have even ever bought Cottonelle in the first place - if I say I'm "boycotting" Tyson chicken on Twitter it has no effect on their sales, because as a vegetarian I never bought their products in the first place. That tweet might be from a bot account for all we know - it might be some random Russian dude trying to start poo poo, or it might be Charmin trying to take market share from their competitor (not saying these are the most likely possibilities, just that we don't currently have any facts that would discount these possibilities). It is foolhardy to ascribe a tweet to be a signal of a "right-wing boycott" - it's a monkeys on typewriters thing, if you search for a particular tag you will find it. You can say "PERSON NAME is boycotting Cottonelle", but even that isn't really demonstrated by the tweet since people lie on the internet all the time. If you had a tweet from someone with a substantial number of followers like Tucker Carlson or Dan Bongino (sp?) or whatever then you could say it is a right-wing boycott, as those people are symbolic and their tweets get views and comments, but the article in question is just some bland outrage fishing, it isn't reporting on a "trend", it is the even lazier version of the "Trump voter safari" articles because the author can just search a brand name and post whatever angry tweets they find and hit submit rather than needing to get an actual name or ask people to expand on their opinion Edit: If simply not buying things makes it a boycott, then I'd like to make it known that I am currently boycotting all yacht companies, all cigarette companies, and all car companies. How very moral and significant this boycott is! BougieBitch fucked around with this message at 17:36 on Jul 12, 2023 |
# ? Jul 12, 2023 17:33 |
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The “64.8% among non-binary” is hilarious. Giving a figure that must have an MOE approaching 100% to a TENTH OF A PERCENT. Why do pollsters do poo poo like that? Aren’t these people trained statisticians? An engineeeing professor would lose his poo poo on you for something like that. Harold Fjord posted:Do you think tweets are a "source"? I mean I’m not sure at what point a boycott goes from “a few weirdos” to “official boycott” but it’s not one tweet. It was enough for the company to formally respond. Willa Rogers posted:Do you have any stats on how the Cottonelle "boycott" affected sales, as we currently have for Bud Light or other organized consumer boycotts?
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# ? Jul 12, 2023 17:34 |
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Fister Roboto posted:1. "It's not real." Related to #5 “Lol idk bike to work or something” - an Exxon CEO on his jet as his company pumps out a million tons of CO2 during the time it took to make the statement.
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# ? Jul 12, 2023 17:37 |
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Fister Roboto posted:1. "It's not real." Yeah you can see the same poo poo in antivaxxers 1. They don't work 2. They cause autism 3. They don't cause autism but we give children too many too quick 4. Some vaccines are bad some are good I will do the research etc etc
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# ? Jul 12, 2023 17:38 |
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Mellow Seas posted:The “64.8% among non-binary” is hilarious. Giving a figure that must have an MOE approaching 100% to a TENTH OF A PERCENT. Why do pollsters do poo poo like that? Aren’t these people trained statisticians? An engineeeing professor would lose his poo poo on you for something like that. Well poo poo maybe it's not our job to Google it and the person making the positive claim in the first place could have provided something more than a tweet from some nobody on Twitter to support that claim. It was literally the first time I had heard of it because it was so inconsequential.
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# ? Jul 12, 2023 17:40 |
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Mellow Seas posted:The “64.8% among non-binary” is hilarious. Giving a figure that must have an MOE approaching 100% to a TENTH OF A PERCENT. Why do pollsters do poo poo like that? Aren’t these people trained statisticians? An engineeeing professor would lose his poo poo on you for something like that. It's not that different than the internet ad market. Everyone has known it's bullshit for years, full of pumped-up numbers by bots. However, marketing departments want to continue investing in internet ads just the same - it's easy and you don't want your budget to be reduced.
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# ? Jul 12, 2023 17:43 |
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Mellow Seas posted:The “64.8% among non-binary” is hilarious. Giving a figure that must have an MOE approaching 100% to a TENTH OF A PERCENT. Why do pollsters do poo poo like that? Aren’t these people trained statisticians? An engineeeing professor would lose his poo poo on you for something like that. I usually side with Leon over Willa on these sort of nitpicky things but the response that was like "oh, no boycott, huh? Then how do you explain THIS TWEET" (from the peanut gallery, not Leon) was just so weak and aggressive that I felt the need to respond. I don't really think either Leon or Willa are wrong in this case - it's fair to say that there's some minimum level of notability before you can really call something a boycott and reasonable people can disagree about that threshold. I would also say that there's more than one way to fail a boycott, and there's plenty of ways a boycott can fail that would show up in sale numbers - like the continuous boycott of Chick-fil-A that weakens their sales with liberals but strengthens them with conservatives, or a small drop in sales that only lasts a week and isn't sustained. What makes a boycott a failure is that it doesn't harm the company or force them to backtrack on the behavior that instigated the boycott - a one-man boycott goes beyond being a "failure" and into being "nothing at all". Letting people mad on Twitter lay claim to a word as significant as "boycott", stealing the reflected light of the civil rights movement, is ceding ground that doesn't need to be ceded. If there is no evidence of an organized effort by a group of people to coordinate and make specific demands, it's just "sparkling impotence" Edit: to add a little more to the discussion, the reason Cottonelle was the point of contention was because we are trying to analyze "why is the Bud Light boycott sticking and others didn't". We have some sensible theories proposed on the macroecon level for the others (Dodgers don't have an alternative good, boycotting Dicks depends on having a REI or whatever in driving distance), with Cottonelle being the only recent example that is a substitutable/elastic good. Therefore, it matters whether a proper boycott was actually attempted or not, because it is the most 1-to-1 with the Bud Light situation, and would tell us whether this kind of boycott is only possible because of recent changes in the American collective consciousness (i.e. is specifically the result of something that happened between 2019 and now, like Trump losing or changes in media consumption or Twitter being owned by Musk), or if it was always possible for the right wing to successfully boycott a thing and there was just never a critical mass of support for one. If Cottonelle was never pushed by the signalers in right-wing media, then it isn't really a piece of evidence for something having changed recently BougieBitch fucked around with this message at 17:58 on Jul 12, 2023 |
# ? Jul 12, 2023 17:46 |
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# ? May 28, 2024 16:19 |
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BougieBitch posted:I usually side with Leon over Willa on these sort of nitpicky things but the response that was like "oh, no boycott, huh? Then how do you explain THIS TWEET" (from the peanut gallery, not Leon) was just so weak and aggressive that I felt the need to respond. I don't really think either Leon or Willa are wrong in this case - it's fair to say that there's some minimum level of notability before you can really call something a boycott and reasonable people can disagree about that threshold. Here's a more detailed article about it. Cottonelle responded and Fox News covered it several days in a row. The boycott never really took off and toilet paper is similar to beer in that you can easily switch brands without extolling any effort. The point is that I don't think you can 100% explain why the Bud Light boycott worked when the dozens and dozens of other attempted conservative never took off just because "it takes no effort to pick something else up on the same shelf." quote:Cottonelle defends gay ad after customers threaten boycott quote:Customers threatened to boycott the brand quote:Cottonelle replied to the backlash publicly across its social media channels, affirming its beliefs. https://www.thepinknews.com/2019/03/01/cottonelle-gay-ad-boycott/
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# ? Jul 12, 2023 17:53 |