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Willa Rogers posted:NBC News ran a piece about younger voters this cycle. Highlights bolded instead of restated. It's mentioned in the article and it's something I've said myself a number of times in the past, but the Dems need to actually run FOR things. Though more importantly, they'd also need to follow through on the Good Things they pinky-promise swear they actually want for people, and I understand that runs counter to what they actually want to do.
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# ? Jul 13, 2023 15:11 |
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# ? May 26, 2024 02:28 |
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quote:Page Six regrets to report that a press dinner to boost Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s presidential campaign descended into a foul bout of screaming and polemic farting Tuesday night. Sounds like he's assembling a team of rivals. quote:Here, it seems, Dechert sensed the need for a new rhetorical tack, and let rip a loud, prolonged fart while yelling, as if to underscore his point, “I’m farting!” He's ready on day one.
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# ? Jul 13, 2023 15:11 |
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zoux posted:https://twitter.com/RobertKennedyJr/status/1679287184254287873 I don’t think RFK Jr will have any real impact whatsoever in 2024 but they are also opening the door for him to endorse Trump when he loses to Biden
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# ? Jul 13, 2023 15:12 |
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the_steve posted:It's mentioned in the article and it's something I've said myself a number of times in the past, but the Dems need to actually run FOR things. Though more importantly, they'd also need to follow through on the Good Things they pinky-promise swear they actually want for people, and I understand that runs counter to what they actually want to do. Yeah, I agree. This poli-speak struck me as particularly lame: quote:“Young people are acutely impacted by the issues front and center in this election, driven by the extreme MAGA agenda, which cuts costs for corporations but not students in debt, takes away fundamental rights, and fails to protect young Americans from our most urgent threats like gun violence and climate change,” said Biden campaign spokesman Kevin Munoz. “President Biden and Vice President Harris are fighting for the future America’s young people deserve, and as Democrats did in 2020 and 2022, we will meet younger Americans where they are and turn their energy into action as part of our winning 2024 coalition.” I mean, I get that it's a quote directed toward the reporter, not "young people," but those kind of kitchen-sink answers make my eyes glaze over, and I'm not a 20 yr old with an attention span the length of a text message. Also this: quote:In an interview, Jones, who was reinstated to the Legislature in April, praised Biden for securing a bill to combat mass shootings, pursuing “environmental justice” with a historic climate law, passing a bill to address the “crisis of democracy” by closing loopholes to prevent stolen elections and announcing new steps to mitigate student debt after his earlier actions were overturned by a conservative-leaning Supreme Court. "Pursuing" and "announcing" and "securing" these items aren't really attention-grabbing, nor earth-shaking, accomplishments & I don't understand how or why they'll convince younger voters.
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# ? Jul 13, 2023 15:18 |
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Guys, I think Robert "vaccines are literal poison, trans people are gross and being used by big pharma to sell us hormones and drugs to poison our kids, Russia was forced to invade Ukraine in self-defense, climate change is a false flag to control us, there are 'some merits' to Jewish conspiracy theories, Prozac is the cause of nearly every mass shooting in America, and bitcoin will replace all global currencies in a decade" Kennedy Jr. might have some bad ideas. Look guy, if you didn't constrain the invisible hand of the free market with all these laws, it would go to the polluters' houses personally and beat them up for damaging the planet.
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# ? Jul 13, 2023 15:24 |
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FDA approved the first OTC birth control pill. This is different than the other plan to potentially make hormonal birth control (and several other medications that previously required a prescription like viagra, hearing aids - which was already done earlier this year - or cholesterol drugs), which is still ongoing. The decision on whether to make hormonal birth control in general available OTC is expected by October. https://twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/1679471821727342593 quote:Federal regulators Thursday approved the first over-the-counter birth control pill available in the United States, a milestone in decades-long efforts to make oral contraceptives easier to obtain, especially by teenagers and women who don’t regularly see a doctor.
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# ? Jul 13, 2023 15:24 |
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It looks inevitable at this point that SAG-AFTRA, the union that represents most onscreen performers in the US, is going to authorize a strike today. This will almost completely paralyze the entertainment industry, far more so than the already-ongoing writers' strike, since it will not be possible to film anything featuring actors you've heard of. SAG-AFTRA statement: quote:After more than four weeks of bargaining, the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers (AMPTP) — the entity that represents major studios and streamers, including Amazon, Apple, Disney, NBCUniversal, Netflix, Paramount, Sony and Warner Bros. Discovery — remains unwilling to offer a fair deal on the key issues that are essential to SAG-AFTRA members. The "key issues that are essential" are mostly compensation for appearance in streaming media, which the industry has until this point gotten away with doing very differently (i.e. significantly less) from appearances in traditional film and television productions. SAG-AFTRA has not gone on strike since 1980. SAG-AFTRA and the WGA have not both gone on strike together since 1960. haveblue fucked around with this message at 15:50 on Jul 13, 2023 |
# ? Jul 13, 2023 15:48 |
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haveblue posted:SAG-AFTRA and the WGA have not both gone on strike together since 1960. And the SAG president in 1960? The funniest possible person to lead a union strike. https://twitter.com/Phil_Lewis_/status/1679500973872390144 I'm picturing the impound lot cop from Big Lebowski here. "They got us working in shifts!" https://twitter.com/RNCResearch/status/1679209644890157057 Mean while the President's silence if deafening zoux fucked around with this message at 16:00 on Jul 13, 2023 |
# ? Jul 13, 2023 15:56 |
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zoux posted:And the SAG president in 1960? The funniest possible person to lead a union strike. Ronald Reagan? The President? Then who's starring in Bedtime for Bonzo 2? Arnold Schwarzenegger? I suppose Jane Wyman is the First Lady! And Jack Benny is Secretary of the Treasury!
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# ? Jul 13, 2023 16:00 |
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Willa Rogers posted:NBC News ran a piece about younger voters this cycle. Highlights bolded instead of restated. We just don’t know at all how any of this is going to translate into votes. Unlike many loud online voices I don’t think most young people consider personally liking or “approving” of the boring technocrat to be a prerequisite for voting against open fascism. the_steve posted:It's mentioned in the article and it's something I've said myself a number of times in the past, but the Dems need to actually run FOR things. Though more importantly, they'd also need to follow through on the Good Things they pinky-promise swear they actually want for people, and I understand that runs counter to what they actually want to do. In what sense do they not run on anything? They are going to run on taxing the rich and expanding healthcare coverage, like they always do. Clean energy. Abortion rights and gender rights. They are going to run on the extremely strong labor market, consistent job growth, and the explosive growth in the manufacturing sector. Maybe those aren’t the things you want them to run on, but the messaging is clear. Like, I don’t know what reality people are living in where they think the Democrats are just standing there going “orange mad bad!” over and over. Reminder that we are talking about the party that gets millions more votes in literally every presidential election. Yes, many of their members have bad opinions about one thing or another (or several), and yes, they make political miscalculations. But the refusal to see them as anything but hopeless losers is just conformation bias.* e: * does not apply to Florida Dems Mellow Seas fucked around with this message at 16:08 on Jul 13, 2023 |
# ? Jul 13, 2023 16:00 |
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Ronald Reagan? The President? Then who's starring in Bedtime for Bonzo 2? Arnold Schwarzenegger? I suppose Jane Wyman is the First Lady! And Jack Benny is Secretary of the Treasury! Hey now, Doc Brown was a nice dude, all things considered.
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# ? Jul 13, 2023 16:05 |
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haveblue posted:It looks inevitable at this point that SAG-AFTRA, the union that represents most onscreen performers in the US, is going to authorize a strike today. This will almost completely paralyze the entertainment industry, far more so than the already-ongoing writers' strike, since it will not be possible to film anything featuring actors you've heard of. This is funny because multiple radio morning shows I flip through were discussing the WGA strike and one of them straight up said…”We actually in SAG-AFTRA, I think. So, we support our brothers and sisters in the writer’s guild. … … We’re not striking, right? Are we? We’ll have to check on that.”
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# ? Jul 13, 2023 16:07 |
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AlternateNu posted:This is funny because multiple radio morning shows I flip through were discussing the WGA strike and one of them straight up said…”We actually in SAG-AFTRA, I think. So, we support our brothers and sisters in the writer’s guild. … Keep the radio on, the board's decision will be announced at 12 PT today. I'm not clear if that means the strike could instantly start at that moment or if that will be the announcement of the time at which that happens. The previous contract expired overnight which is why this is all happening today.
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# ? Jul 13, 2023 16:09 |
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Mellow Seas posted:I don’t know if I’ve see anything written about politics that was more “vibes” than this. There’s no data except for the fact that he appears to have a positive approval rating, although for some reason (because it doesn’t fit the chosen narrative, probably) they don’t give the full figures. Nor do they compare them to any historical data. (How “excited” were young people for Joe Biden in the aftermath of the 2020 primaries?) The bolded parts are what stick out the most immediately to me, considering we live in a world where Roe v. Wade was overturned under a Democratic administration and anti-trans legislation and rhetoric is ramping back up to levels that I don't think we've seen in quite a number of years. Dems have had decades and multiple presidencies to codify Roe v. Wade. I'll admit, I was very vocal about how I didn't believe there was a snowball's chance in hell of it ever getting overturned in the first place, but I'm also not a career politician whose job involves seeing the writing on the walls that us normal idiots don't get to look at, I'm sure the folks with actual access to the levers of power saw it coming and still let it happen. It's very easy to see them as hopeless losers (or deliberate losers) when they keep "TECHNICALLY" winning, but somehow the Republicans keep managing to go home with the trophy.
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# ? Jul 13, 2023 16:17 |
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I think the NBC News piece was more about how to motivate younger voters, who typically have lower rates of voting, than presenting statistics about whether they plan to vote. Not every political piece is presenting hard stats; some are strategy-oriented, as this one was. But it did quote a political pollster who'd said: quote:“Nearly every sign that made me confident in historic levels of youth participation in 2018, 2020, and 2022 — is now flashing red,” he wrote.
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# ? Jul 13, 2023 16:20 |
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Mellow Seas posted:I don’t know if I’ve see anything written about politics that was more “vibes” than this. There’s no data except for the fact that he appears to have a positive approval rating, although for some reason (because it doesn’t fit the chosen narrative, probably) they don’t give the full figures. Nor do they compare them to any historical data. (How “excited” were young people for Joe Biden in the aftermath of the 2020 primaries?) Yes but if they ran for the things that I like then they would excite the youth vote. No I am not young. https://twitter.com/ArthurDelaneyHP/status/1679500826388189184 This is getting pathetic. I'm sure most of those 500 people are back in their home states because they are tourists? I know that they just want the words "cocaine" associated with "Biden" for Hunter Vibes Reasons but what's their theory of malfeasance here? Did Joe Biden, demented and hopped up on cocaine, get in line for a public tour of the White House and put his bag of cocaine in the x-ray tray? zoux fucked around with this message at 16:23 on Jul 13, 2023 |
# ? Jul 13, 2023 16:21 |
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Sure its not great someone snuck in with drugs into the white house, it is not a "scandal" though. It's not like it was Bidens coke or anything. Hell I wish he would do some coke maybe it would put more fight in him.
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# ? Jul 13, 2023 16:22 |
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I’m a little bit surprised that the white house doesn’t have the security camera coverage to figure it out but I also don’t care at all.
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# ? Jul 13, 2023 16:22 |
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zoux posted:Yes but if they ran for the things that I like then they would excite the youth vote. No I am not young. Was this directed toward me? Because I don't recall expressing that in my notes about the NBC News story, or in any other of my recent posts. If you do disagree with something I've said I'm happy to further discuss it.
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# ? Jul 13, 2023 16:23 |
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Fork of Unknown Origins posted:I’m a little bit surprised that the white house doesn’t have the security camera coverage to figure it out but I also don’t care at all. The "White" House you say....this goes all the way to the top.
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# ? Jul 13, 2023 16:24 |
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socialsecurity posted:Sure its not great someone snuck in with drugs into the white house, it is not a "scandal" though. It's not like it was Bidens coke or anything. Hell I wish he would do some coke maybe it would put more fight in him. The coke clearly belongs to Onion Biden
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# ? Jul 13, 2023 16:26 |
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zoux posted:And the SAG president in 1960? The funniest possible person to lead a union strike. Hollywood CEOs getting their rear end kicked by The Nanny is a solid #2 though.
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# ? Jul 13, 2023 16:31 |
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I would prefer an aggregation of polls rather than just the yougov poll, but it seems to me that Biden is doing okay with younger voters relative to older voters. https://www.economist.com/president-joe-biden-polls
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# ? Jul 13, 2023 16:34 |
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the_steve posted:The bolded parts are what stick out the most immediately to me, considering we live in a world where Roe v. Wade was overturned under a Democratic administration and anti-trans legislation and rhetoric is ramping back up to levels that I don't think we've seen in quite a number of years. Are you serious right now, man? Ask a woman needing an abortion or a trans person who they would rather have running their state or the federal government.
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# ? Jul 13, 2023 16:39 |
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plogo posted:I would prefer an aggregation of polls rather than just the yougov poll, but it seems to me that Biden is doing okay with younger voters relative to older voters. Yes, his approvals are fine among younger voters, but as Della Volpe said, it's indicators such as the number of young voters identifying as Democrats & also of younger voters seeing politics as a meaningful way to create change, which he has cited as precursors of younger-voter turnout. Beyond the raw numbers & into analysis, in other words.
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# ? Jul 13, 2023 16:40 |
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plogo posted:I would prefer an aggregation of polls rather than just the yougov poll, but it seems to me that Biden is doing okay with younger voters relative to older voters. But this is the opposite of what the one single professor who provided the entire premise for that Dems in Disarray article said?
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# ? Jul 13, 2023 16:43 |
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Mellow Seas posted:Yes, if you just flat-out ignore any realities whatsoever about the basic functions and structure of our federalist system of government, the Dems are bad on those issues. Well poo poo, what do you think, Willa? (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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# ? Jul 13, 2023 16:44 |
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plogo posted:I would prefer an aggregation of polls rather than just the yougov poll, but it seems to me that Biden is doing okay with younger voters relative to older voters. They will either hold their nose and vote Dem or go independent or just opt out of the system at all
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# ? Jul 13, 2023 16:44 |
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Willa Rogers posted:What are you guys sussing out from the Kids These Days in your universe? And if you were a political strategist, what would you suggest that Democrats do to woo the young'uns? I don't think anyone is excited about Biden, but once Trump is front and center again, Biden will seem a lot more appealing. One of the biggest drivers of "both sides-ism" today among young people (and I can even relate to this at the ancient age of 36) is that literally no one in power is remotely close to their age or has a non-boomer worldview. Still, a critical mass of "lesser of two evil" voters, favors Dems in presidential elections. One seemingly easy thing Biden could do appeal to the young working class is actually be the pro-union guy he says he is. Unionism is on the rise and if he were visibly supporting the high profile strikes, it would send the message that he does care about the working class. I know a lot of the real legal changes that are needed have to go through congress so lol, but he could at least put himself out there. The Dems need more young, exciting, and hardline senate candidates more than anything. We saw the landslide potential when Obama cultivated that image, we just need people who have the principles to not sell out once they actually get the power.
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# ? Jul 13, 2023 16:48 |
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the_steve posted:The bolded parts are what stick out the most immediately to me, considering we live in a world where Roe v. Wade was overturned under a Democratic administration and anti-trans legislation and rhetoric is ramping back up to levels that I don't think we've seen in quite a number of years. I remember how "Surely left-leaning voters will remember Roe v. Wade died under a Democratic administration" was a popular argument for why 2022's red wave was going to even bigger than 2010's. Sure a lot of that was just whispering campaign stuff, but it still turned out most voters don't really think that way.
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# ? Jul 13, 2023 16:49 |
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FlamingLiberal posted:A big part of this is that the GOP is not a real alternative for most younger people Yeah I agree with that, but in the past few months Biden's approval with younger people has been skyrocketing while it is stagnant with older people. Given the larger share of the electorate and the higher turnout of older people, that seems to be the more important strategic question.
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# ? Jul 13, 2023 16:50 |
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Blind Pineapple posted:One seemingly easy thing Biden could do appeal to the young working class is actually be the pro-union guy he says he is. Unionism is on the rise and if he were visibly supporting the high profile strikes, it would send the message that he does care about the working class. I know a lot of the real legal changes that are needed have to go through congress so lol, but he could at least put himself out there. The unionization rate is actually continuing to fall. It has fallen slower since 2021, but it is still falling year to year. There have just been several high-profile union successes and NLRB rulings in recent years due to both changes Biden made at the NLRB and things completely unrelated to anything he has done. There are technically more people in unions overall, but that is mostly because of population increases. The unionization rate has declined every year since 1983. quote:The union membership rate—the percent of wage and salary workers who were members of unions— was 10.1 percent in 2022, down from 10.3 percent in 2021, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The number of wage and salary workers belonging to unions, at 14.3 million in 2022, increased by 273,000, or 1.9 percent, from 2021. This disproportionately large increase in the number of total wage and salary employment compared with the increase in the number of union members led to a decrease in the union membership rate. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/union2.pdf Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 17:01 on Jul 13, 2023 |
# ? Jul 13, 2023 16:53 |
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Willa Rogers posted:Yes, his approvals are fine among younger voters, but as Della Volpe said, it's indicators such as the number of young voters identifying as Democrats & also of younger voters seeing politics as a meaningful way to create change, which he has cited as precursors of younger-voter turnout. That doesn’t mean he’s wrong, of course, nor is he actually saying that the party is destined to underperform with youth - just that there are some possible indicators of it happening. But maybe the guy whose career is built around “I know how to get young people to vote” has an incentive to play up the tenuousness of that support a bit. In any case, according to the linked article he worked on the Biden 2020 campaign and many people in the administration value his analysis, so his advice will certainly be heeded.
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# ? Jul 13, 2023 16:53 |
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zoux posted:But this is the opposite of what the one single professor who provided the entire premise for that Dems in Disarray article said?
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# ? Jul 13, 2023 16:55 |
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The Youth cannot be specifically activated. They are not waiting for someone with (your) exciting politics. Every single time, their participation tracks along the same lines as the rest of the populace. They didn't turn out for Bernie, and they won't turn out for the next person to place their hopes on them.
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# ? Jul 13, 2023 16:56 |
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Blind Pineapple posted:I don't think anyone is excited about Biden, but once Trump is front and center again, Biden will seem a lot more appealing. One of the biggest drivers of "both sides-ism" today among young people (and I can even relate to this at the ancient age of 36) is that literally no one in power is remotely close to their age or has a non-boomer worldview. Still, a critical mass of "lesser of two evil" voters, favors Dems in presidential elections. Thank you for the good-faith response. I agree that Biden could & should stake out an appeal to younger working-class voters (with the added benefit of also attracting older working-class voters) and also that having younger & more energized senate candidates would help him. But the Senate has become, and to an extent has always been, a sinecure that its occupants are loath to cede once they're in. Hell, even the House is skewing older; I read about Grace Napolitano retiring & was surprised to see that she's 86 years old. According to NBC News, the current Congress is the oldest since 1789: quote:The 118th Congress enters Capitol Hill as one of the oldest in the past century, according to an NBC News analysis of data from the @unitedstates project, a group of journalists and researchers who track historical and current Congress-related information. In fact, of all of the Congresses since 1789, this is the second-oldest Senate and the third-oldest House.
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# ? Jul 13, 2023 16:57 |
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Honestly, the fact that younger voters are even being regarded as a political force speaks to how either politics has fundamentally changed or Biden is in deep trouble (or the politics reporters are just bored). Young people typically aren't a large or reliable voting cohort, and candidates that are overwhelmingly popular among young people tend to find that their predictions of huge youth turnout completely failed to materialize.
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# ? Jul 13, 2023 16:57 |
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I think the election is largely going to come down to how the economy changes over the next year and change People say it's always about the economy but it seems like it will actually be the biggest driver by far this cycle And the Federal Reserve is the biggest factor in that right now since Congress is deadlocked
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# ? Jul 13, 2023 16:58 |
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:The unionization rate is actually continuing to fall. It has fallen slower since 2021, but it is still falling year to year. There have just been several high-profile union successes and NLRB rulings in recent years due to both changes Biden made at the NLRB and things completely unrelated to anything he has done. I almost didn't join the union when I started my new job because the union presenter was terrible and couldn't answer a single basic question I had. Instead I decided to join the union and get more involved and try to get in there somehow, because I came up with a better union pitch in my shower.
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# ? Jul 13, 2023 16:59 |
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# ? May 26, 2024 02:28 |
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Killer robot posted:I remember how "Surely left-leaning voters will remember Roe v. Wade died under a Democratic administration" was a popular argument for why 2022's red wave was going to even bigger than 2010's. Sure a lot of that was just whispering campaign stuff, but it still turned out most voters don't really think that way. Really? Because I remember it as the opposite: Democrats feeling energized that they'd secured a winning issue that would propel voters to the polls, a strategy that mostly was borne out by the midterms.
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# ? Jul 13, 2023 17:01 |