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Mellow Seas posted:I’m gonna go ahead and say that the Williamson campaign’s problems do not increase or decrease Mr Kennedy’s chances at the nomination. I didn't say it did. It'll help his polling though & it'll be funny when his percentage grows larger than the GOP parallel in DeSantis, whom people still treat as a serious contender to Trump.
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Jul 13, 2023 20:35
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Edward Mass posted:Also, a SAG-AFTRA guy (who I don't recognize personally) just said the AMPTP suggested giving extras one day's pay for eternal rights to AI usage of their image. THAT'S hosed up. Do you mean supporting actors? Extras are already not eligible for residuals and get paid a flat rate.
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Jul 13, 2023 20:37
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BougieBitch posted:I watched a recent Black Mirror episode the other day where the premise was a streaming company AI-generating a TV show based on a random person's life and that person getting none of the revenue - something tells me the writers and actors were intimately familiar with the experience In the episode it was less about the revenue and more about the lack of (informed) consent on having their life put out there. To me it felt more squarely aimed at shows like Dahmer than really being a criticism of AI. AI was just how they made their story work. AI in Hollywood is going to be an interesting topic because of how fast the technology is moving. I could see low budget movies and shows (think less “gets released to theaters” and more “Lifetime”) trying to use AI generated actors (including voice) in the next, like, 5 years. I’m less convinced we’re close to it being able to write a coherent story, but had you shown me Dalle 5 years ago I wouldn’t have believed it either.
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Jul 13, 2023 20:38
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Do you mean supporting actors? Extras are already not eligible for residuals and get paid a flat rate. The point is that the suggestion was made that they could give an extra one day of pay and then use them in every future film by feeding an AI version into crowd shots Edit: the Black Mirror episode was both - as you may recall, a central issue was that Selma Hayek was paid a single flat amount for use of her likeness, which they then abused to have her play a version of the central character - in other words, the message of the parable is that streaming services are abusive from the bottom up, to both consumers and actors, and that data harvesting and AI scripting were both hosed up parts of the capitalist machine that makes us hate ourselves and consume more BougieBitch fucked around with this message at 20:42 on Jul 13, 2023 |
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Jul 13, 2023 20:38
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Do you mean supporting actors? Extras are already not eligible for residuals and get paid a flat rate. No, extras. One day's work for movies or TV shows until the sun burns out.
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Jul 13, 2023 20:39
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I can't wait for the AI bubble to pop, the money is treating it like a magic button you can press and Content comes out but it's just making poo poo up and all of it is garbage without extensive tweaking by a human (who you will have to pay). And using it in any context where factual accuracy is important is just laughable because everything it doesn't plagiarize it's just making up out of whole cloth
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Jul 13, 2023 20:40
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Willa Rogers posted:I didn't say it did. The difference is also the size of the gap and relative positions. Biden is typically ~50 points ahead of the next closest person and between 65% and 75%. Trump is typically ~20-30 points ahead and usually around 50% total. DeSantis is objectively doing about 40% better than RFK.
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Jul 13, 2023 20:42
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Edward Mass posted:No, extras. One day's work for movies or TV shows until the sun burns out. Ah, I see. That is so wild that I didn't even think they could mean that.
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Jul 13, 2023 20:43
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Fork of Unknown Origins posted:The problem with FPTP is you’re whittled down to two choices. With proportional representation or even RCV there’s room for candidates you don’t have to compromise on so many things with. But FPTP practically enforces a two party system. Oh, I totally agree. Just that proportional/RCV systems are still 100% "To have a say over government policies you will need to knowingly assist the election of someone you know will also do some dumbass poo poo you disapprove of."
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Jul 13, 2023 20:43
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:The difference is also the size of the gap and relative positions. That'll change when the wannabes drop out; there are currently nine or so Republicans running & three Democrats, and I don't see the ABTs all shifting to DeSantis as that process happens. eta: RCP's poll aggregator says Trump currently is up 32 percent over DeSantis. Morning Consult's latest poll (released yesterday) has Trump up 39 points over DeSantis, lol. Willa Rogers fucked around with this message at 20:50 on Jul 13, 2023 |
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Jul 13, 2023 20:46
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zoux posted:Small, pedantic note: the bill Dutton resurrected was actually the ban on trans kids participating in sports conforming to their gender expression at the UIL level in 2021. Dutton may or may not be a transphobe but he is an rear end in a top hat and he brought that up as chair of Pub Ed because he couldn't get his TEA takeover of HISD bill through because his fellow Ds wouldn't vote for it, so he was like gently caress You Then. Certainly the outcome of his action was transphobic, which is what counts. I appreciate the details, I got my wires crossed on which transphobic bill he did that for. That said, I don't really see a difference between being a transphobe intentionally, and thinking so lowly of trans people that passing bills to discriminate against us is so noncontroversial to you it enters your mind as a thing to do when you get mad at your party. I don't just mean in terms of outcome, thinking that lowly of trans people *is* transphobia.
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Jul 13, 2023 20:46
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Fork of Unknown Origins posted:AI in Hollywood is going to be an interesting topic because of how fast the technology is moving. I could see low budget movies and shows (think less “gets released to theaters” and more “Lifetime”) trying to use AI generated actors (including voice) in the next, like, 5 years. I’m less convinced we’re close to it being able to write a coherent story, but had you shown me Dalle 5 years ago I wouldn’t have believed it either. i get bored and occasionally scan around for random poo poo on netflix or whatever, and i swear to god they're pumping out biographies that are just "computer take a bunch of clips, archived interviews, and images of (bruce willis/the rock/tom hanks/some other actor with copious biographical information out there), have text to speech read out a wiki page over applicable media, and make it 90 minutes long" there's absolutely AI pumping out dreck with minimal human interaction already, and i don't like it
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Jul 13, 2023 20:47
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Mellow Seas posted:I’ve never seen anybody ever tell somebody they need to “vote harder” and I don’t know where this stupid, implicitly pejorative description of GOTV efforts comes from, but it sure does get used here a lot. zoux posted:The plan is "voting harder" and "for blue no matter who". (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jul 13, 2023 20:47
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:The difference is also the size of the gap and relative positions. In fairness, I don't think Willa is wrong on Desantis's odds of winning the nom - even using the most optimistic meaning of the poll numbers ("this is what the candidates would receive if the election was held today"), the 99% confidence interval for either of those is Biden and Trump respectively. The odds for either Kennedy or DeSantis have more to do with actuarial tables for Biden and Trump than whatever the current polling says, if we are being honest
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Jul 13, 2023 20:47
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Willa Rogers posted:That'll change when the wannabes drop out; there are currently nine or so Republicans running & three Democrats, and I don't see the ABTs all shifting to DeSantis as that process happens. Reading articles (well, ledes) from Big Brained Politics Knowers suggesting Scott will be the not-Trump such people will move on to next now that DeSantis looks like he's dead in the water.
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Jul 13, 2023 20:47
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burnishedfume posted:I appreciate the details, I got my wires crossed on which transphobic bill he did that for. That said, I don't really see a difference between being a transphobe intentionally, and thinking so lowly of trans people that passing bills to discriminate against us is so noncontroversial to you it enters your mind as a thing to do when you get mad at your party. I don't just mean in terms of outcome, thinking that lowly of trans people *is* transphobia. Fair enough.
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Jul 13, 2023 20:47
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Willa Rogers posted:It'll help his polling though & it'll be funny when his percentage grows larger than the GOP parallel in DeSantis, whom people still treat as a serious contender to Trump. The problem for RFK Jr. is that Biden and to a large extent the media is never going to treat him like a serious contender, because they don't have to. Trump is treating Desantis like a serious contender and that's all the oxygen the clowncar primary will need. Murdoch can sub out Desantis mid-campaign for someone else if he continues to flounder, I'd be surprised if they didn't give Larry Elder a cycle somewhere down the line.
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Jul 13, 2023 20:52
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haveblue posted:I can't wait for the AI bubble to pop, the money is treating it like a magic button you can press and Content comes out but it's just making poo poo up and all of it is garbage without extensive tweaking by a human (who you will have to pay). And using it in any context where factual accuracy is important is just laughable because everything it doesn't plagiarize it's just making up out of whole cloth I use it every day to save me tons of time on Python and Excel scripts. People generically ranting against AI are missing that the issue is certain applications, and even generating people with a dozen fingers isn’t a problem if you’re not going straight to the art version of prod.
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Jul 13, 2023 20:52
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Judgy Fucker posted:Reading articles (well, ledes) from Big Brained Politics Knowers suggesting Scott will be the not-Trump such people will move on to next now that DeSantis looks like he's dead in the water. RCP's giving thirds to Pence fwiw, but that could be name recognition. 
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Jul 13, 2023 20:55
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Tiny Timbs posted:I use it every day to save me tons of time on Python and Excel scripts. People generically ranting against AI are missing that the issue is certain applications, and even generating people with a dozen fingers isn’t a problem if you’re not going straight to the art version of prod. I hope you're carefully double-checking those scripts and their output
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Jul 13, 2023 20:57
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DynamicSloth posted:The problem for RFK Jr. is that Biden and to a large extent the media is never going to treat him like a serious contender, because they don't have to. The big difference is that if Trump dropped dead tomorrow Desantis would be a serious contender, and if Biden dropped dead tomorrow RFK Jr's chances for the Democratic nomination would not increase substantially. Both sides have people who find it convenient/interesting to pretend there is a serious race going on even though they know there isn't, but I think everyone knows that distinction between the two except perhaps RFK Jr.
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Jul 13, 2023 20:58
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Fork of Unknown Origins posted:In the episode it was less about the revenue and more about the lack of (informed) consent on having their life put out there. To me it felt more squarely aimed at shows like Dahmer than really being a criticism of AI. AI was just how they made their story work. They’re already doing AI, the intro to Marvel’s Secret Invasion is AI-generated (and it looks like poo poo). Full on performances are probably a bit much to ask atm but it’s messed up how quickly AI stuff went from “lol the Alien from Alien eating a burger” to “replace all the labor Tech Bros consider unworthy”
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Jul 13, 2023 20:59
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DynamicSloth posted:The problem for RFK Jr. is that Biden and to a large extent the media is never going to treat him like a serious contender, because they don't have to. Biden isn't paying dust to RFK Jr. (unsurprisingly) and I'd say that Trump is clowning on DeSanctimonious more than he's treating him seriously. Neither major party's leading candidate's team has said that they'll be debating opponents. Murdoch isn't choosing the nominee; GOP voters are, and they want Trump, just as most Dem voters want Biden, or at least feel resigned to supporting him.
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Jul 13, 2023 20:59
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haveblue posted:I hope you're carefully double-checking those scripts and their output Naturally. I wouldn’t use it for something where it’s not easy to tell when you’re getting the wrong output.
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Jul 13, 2023 21:00
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theCalamity posted:edit: I want to add that, to me, it seems like the "vote harder" and "vote blue no matter who" plans have been in place for a long, long time now and I'm not happy with the results. Additionally, these plans don't take into account how exhausting it is for people, especially when their lives are on the line. I think it's debatable whether or not the general electorate has "stuck to the plan." If they haven't stuck to the plan in accurate, it's hard to blame the plan for that failure. "Vote blue no matter who" also requires that you vote in primaries (i.e. vote your heart in the primaries, vote your party in the general), which a lot of people frankly don't do. Of course theres also the point that a plan that doesn't work if everyone doesn't stick to may not be a good plan. But that I don't think there's any political movement or activity that will work if you don't have a critical mass of people showing up and participating consistently. And I don't blame the people with "their lives on the line" for this. If I had to hazard a guess, I'd assume that it's the champaign liberals and apathetic voters that are screwing things up. People with a stake in things tend to show up, from what I've seen.
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Jul 13, 2023 21:05
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Killer robot posted:The big difference is that if Trump dropped dead tomorrow Desantis would be a serious contender, and if Biden dropped dead tomorrow RFK Jr's chances for the Democratic nomination would not increase substantially. Both sides have people who find it convenient/interesting to pretend there is a serious race going on even though they know there isn't, but I think everyone knows that distinction between the two except perhaps RFK Jr. Exactly. There is no scenario where RFK Jr. actually gets the nomination. The Democrats actually have a little bit of a bench they could pull from in a catastrophe.
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Jul 13, 2023 21:07
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Fork of Unknown Origins posted:Exactly. There is no scenario where RFK Jr. actually gets the nomination. The Democrats actually have a little bit of a bench they could pull from in a catastrophe. Barely, but you're right insofar as RFK Jr. is not on that bench at all.
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Jul 13, 2023 21:10
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Killer robot posted:The big difference is that if Trump dropped dead tomorrow Desantis would be a serious contender, and if Biden dropped dead tomorrow RFK Jr's chances for the Democratic nomination would not increase substantially. Both sides have people who find it convenient/interesting to pretend there is a serious race going on even though they know there isn't, but I think everyone knows that distinction between the two except perhaps RFK Jr. I don't know that I'd put DeSantis down as "a serious contender" even if Trump dropped dead. I'd put the conditional probability at like 5-10%, peaking this early in the primary season isn't great for the clown car style and his strategy is Godawful from what reporting we've seen - he is deliberately not setting up to win anything before super-Tuesday. He's really dumb and has bad political instincts, is what I'm saying, he wouldn't hack it as a national politician
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Jul 13, 2023 21:14
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BougieBitch posted:I don't know that I'd put DeSantis down as "a serious contender" even if Trump dropped dead. I'd put the conditional probability at like 5-10%, peaking this early in the primary season isn't great for the clown car style and his strategy is Godawful from what reporting we've seen - he is deliberately not setting up to win anything before super-Tuesday. He's really dumb and has bad political instincts, is what I'm saying, he wouldn't hack it as a national politician That puts him in the same "I could see it but I'm not as sure as some people" that Walker and Cruz had before Trump joined the 2016 primary, but right now there's a thinner non-Trump bench against him than they had. Trump's exit will likely bring chaos in any case since "fear of angering Trump" is one of the unifying principles of the party right now even among those who want him to go away. Another thing not really true of Biden.
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Jul 13, 2023 21:22
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DynamicSloth posted:Barely, but you're right insofar as RFK Jr. is not on that bench at all. Newsom, Harris, Buttigeig, Whitmer, or Klobuchar would probably be able to pick up the campaign and run with it without a catastrophic break. Some of those would be better than others but it’s not a terrible group of people with enough national prominence to put together a run.
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Jul 13, 2023 21:25
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DeSantis certainly seems like he’s Rick Perry 2 but the GOP is also even dumber than it was in 2012 so who knows. Plenty of people have come back from worse situations in primaries and it’s the GOP so we can’t pretend his odiousness and open hostility is a real barrier. Willa Rogers posted:That'll change when the wannabes drop out; there are currently nine or so Republicans running & three Democrats, and I don't see the ABTs all shifting to DeSantis as that process happens. But I don’t think they’ll have any more success “voltron”ing their candidate field against Trump than they did in 2016. Most of these people are going to stick it out to the bitter end. Willa Rogers posted:I didn't say it did.  DynamicSloth posted:The problem for RFK Jr. is that Biden and to a large extent the media is never going to treat him like a serious contender, because they don't have to. Gumball Gumption already “gotcha’d” me on this, thanks. 
Mellow Seas fucked around with this message at 21:30 on Jul 13, 2023 |
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Jul 13, 2023 21:25
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I know it's not really in the spirit of the thought experiment, but if Trump dropped dead about 20 more candidates like Ted Cruz, Rick Scott, Marco Rubio, Blake Masters, who knows, would jump into what would be the biggest primary clusterfuck of all time. Lots of perennials sitting out this round because they know Trump's unbeatable.
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Jul 13, 2023 21:25
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Willa Rogers posted:Biden isn't paying dust to RFK Jr. (unsurprisingly) and I'd say that Trump is clowning on DeSanctimonious more than he's treating him seriously. Neither major party's leading candidate's team has said that they'll be debating opponents. Willa Rogers posted:Murdoch isn't choosing the nominee; GOP voters are, and they want Trump, just as most Dem voters want Biden, or at least feel resigned to supporting him.
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Jul 13, 2023 21:38
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Killer robot posted:That puts him in the same "I could see it but I'm not as sure as some people" that Walker and Cruz had before Trump joined the 2016 primary, but right now there's a thinner non-Trump bench against him than they had. Trump's exit will likely bring chaos in any case since "fear of angering Trump" is one of the unifying principles of the party right now even among those who want him to go away. Another thing not really true of Biden. Do you seriously think that Trump will have an "exit" and not be the nominee? (I ask bc you used the certain "will" instead of the conditional "would")
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Jul 13, 2023 21:49
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If Trump somehow lost the primary for non-incapacitation reasons it would be really, really interesting to see how he treats the actual nominee. Might not be following the Bernie playbook on that one.
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Jul 13, 2023 21:54
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DynamicSloth posted:Democratic voters aren't going to pick Biden, the barest fraction of their number will participate in the primary and most probably won't even be aware in the summer of 2024 that he didn't just get the nomination automatically. Yeah, I'm not challenging any of that. I wonder if there'll be any attempt at an operation ratfuck against Trump during the primaries, given that Dems seem more worried about him than other GOP candidates, even though some national head-to-heads show DeSantis vs. Biden pretty close to Trump vs. Biden results (ie: pretty much a tie). Probably not.
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Jul 13, 2023 21:54
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Tiny Timbs posted:I use it every day to save me tons of time on Python and Excel scripts. People generically ranting against AI are missing that the issue is certain applications, and even generating people with a dozen fingers isn’t a problem if you’re not going straight to the art version of prod. I mean you realize that the better this gets, the more the companies you work for will be able to leverage it against salaries, and use it to justify aggressive downsizing and pushing more work on people, right?
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Jul 13, 2023 21:57
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Willa Rogers posted:Yeah, I'm not challenging any of that. He’s been recorded talking about sexually harassing women, lost civil trials, and is under indictment for several crimes with likely several more coming. What could an operation ratfuck even look like?
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Jul 13, 2023 21:58
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Professor Beetus posted:I mean you realize that the better this gets, the more the companies you work for will be able to leverage it against salaries, and use it to justify aggressive downsizing and pushing more work on people, right? These new tools are helping me cut down on the "more work," because fussing with Excel and writing Python are only incidental to the actual work I'm meant to be doing. I'm not going to protest by being that guy who spends 20 years building spreadsheets by typing numbers into a Word doc and carefully copy and pasting them into Excel one-by-one.
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Jul 13, 2023 22:10
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Professor Beetus posted:I mean you realize that the better this gets, the more the companies you work for will be able to leverage it against salaries, and use it to justify aggressive downsizing and pushing more work on people, right? Exactly. You’re training your replacement, it’s just that you didn’t plan on retiring by the time it’ll be ready to take your job. A huge part of future labor relations will be about what work humans are required to do, and who should profit from automation. An enormous tranche of libertarian or just small L liberal developers and admins who are all out of a job in a few year span is a social movement that nobody wants to see manifest in the real world. But I do wonder if it might change their ideas about politics once labor power is taken away from them as individuals. I don’t feel optimistic, it’s probably just going to generate a lot of Gen X mass shooters.
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