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What is the most powerful flying bug?
This poll is closed.
🦋 15 3.71%
🦇 115 28.47%
🪰 12 2.97%
🐦 67 16.58%
dragonfly 94 23.27%
🦟 14 3.47%
🐝 87 21.53%
Total: 404 votes
[Edit Poll (moderators only)]

 
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Frosted Flake
Sep 13, 2011

Semper Shitpost Ubique

iirc Ukraine has received all of 14 "advanced" NATO CB radars. It might have been 2 shipments of 14 because the first batch got hosed up last spring-summer. Prior to last January-February, the Putin-loving Amerikkkans only provided counter-mortar radars on the delusional and ruscist premise that Ukraine would try to shell the republics if they felt they had some ability to engage Russian batteries. Crazy.

I can provide a very simple explanation since I'm familiar with the radars and techniques in question: the infantry bitch incessantly about guns being unavailable. When a call for fire is denied because the battery is engaged in CB tasks, or relocating, or has fallen silent due to a CB threat and won't be available until T, the Infantry Btn IC writes a report to the Division HQ reporting the end of the world.

If the Taliban mortared or shot a rocket at KAF, pretty much all guns would be tasked to that (except the PzHs which were invariably down for maintenance), and you would think the Taliban had retaken the province from the crying about guns not being immediately on-call, no questions asked, for a little while.

Anyway, the Romanians put a couple of these on MT-LBs,
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=geGtS0157_0
and because both the vehicle and weapon were always immediately serviceable, and they could deliver overwhelming fires pretty much as soon as the radars could plot the firing point, lol they became the go-to for protecting the multibillion dollar Coalition base. :eurovision:

Unfortunately, we have to face the sum of all fears:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TM4BOyKZYg8
Russia has somehow recreated NATO's most effective counter-mortar weapon system. I have no idea how they reverse engineered it without spending billions.

Frosted Flake has issued a correction as of 14:30 on Jul 15, 2023

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gradenko_2000
Oct 5, 2010

HELL SERPENT
Lipstick Apathy

mlmp08 posted:

Russia has a or at least started the war with a major advantage in artillery and and counter-fire radars and has always had an advantage in quantity and quality of air power to support fires. Are you arguing that Ukraine is or was evenly equipped or better equipped with artillery and fire support equipment than Russia was?

I'm arguing that Ukraine has received lots of artillery systems, sometimes very publicly so. Has that not been enough to make up for this alleged gap with Russia?

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration
Nap Ghost
I suspect it’s less that Ukraine has some big coordinated counter-battery in force type army and more that even outmatched with artillery equipment, Ukraine has been able to use their own recon as well as support from other nations to effectively target or at least suppress emissions of Russian counter-battery sensors and C2, disintegrating a lot of Russian fires capability. Disintegrate like “we are no longer well integrated” not like a Mars Attacks gun.

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration
Nap Ghost

gradenko_2000 posted:

I'm arguing that Ukraine has received lots of artillery systems, sometimes very publicly so. Has that not been enough to make up for this alleged gap with Russia?

Russian artillery and ordnance production is almost assuredly still overall larger than Ukraine’s. Yeah, HIMARS is far more useful than Uragans and Smerch have proven to be, but when push comes to shove, Russia simply has more tubes and more rounds to feed them. And Russia can be supporting its artillery in the deep fight with cruise missiles and ballistic missiles when they want to.

I would be surprised if actually Russia is the artillery underdog in this war.

PhilippAchtel
May 31, 2011

Posting for the broke brain libs:

https://sgs.princeton.edu/the-lab/plan-a

https://youtu.be/2jy3JU-ORpo



Yeah, Ukraine looks great in this scenario.

Cerebral Bore
Apr 21, 2010


Fun Shoe

Zeroisanumber posted:

I assume they'd spin up the production lines before they get too funky but this is just all of us jerking off over who could do what. NATO isn't going to go to war with Russia unless the situation radically changes. And if they do I'm going to cash out my savings and party until the bombs drop because we're all dead men.

From people I know who've been in Ukraine recently, they've all said that Ukraine put up a good fight but they're spent and the only way out is a negotiated settlement.

why would you spin up production lines when you can just grift the money away?

Cpt_Obvious
Jun 18, 2007

mlmp08 posted:

Russia has a or at least started the war with a major advantage in artillery and and counter-fire radars and has always had an advantage in quantity and quality of air power to support fires. Are you arguing that Ukraine is or was evenly equipped or better equipped with artillery and fire support equipment than Russia was?

I think you're confused as to which thread you're posting in.

Its ok, I've done it too.

Ardennes
May 12, 2002

Cpt_Obvious posted:

I think you're confused as to which thread you're posting in.

Its ok, I've done it too.

I mean Russian artillery is obviously so poorly coordinated that...the Ukrainians are barely able to get off the starting line, have taken huge attrition, and there are clear eyewitness accounts, if not video, of Ukrainians under continuous accurate fire. Also, HIMARS is really great and much better than Soviet stuff, which is why you barely hear about it anymore despite the US/NATO having sent a significant number of launchers (or ones very similar to HIMARS systems). Hell, the Ukrainians openly admit that they can only do a few missions a day at best with them.

The Ukrainians still have artillery, and they are able to take some Russians with them, but in the end it is about weight on fire and the failure of the Ukrainian offensive (and other recent operations) are a testament to that.

Frosted Flake
Sep 13, 2011

Semper Shitpost Ubique

mlmp08 posted:

Russian artillery and ordnance production is almost assuredly still overall larger than Ukraine’s. Yeah, HIMARS is far more useful than Uragans and Smerch have proven to be, but when push comes to shove, Russia simply has more tubes and more rounds to feed them. And Russia can be supporting its artillery in the deep fight with cruise missiles and ballistic missiles when they want to.

I would be surprised if actually Russia is the artillery underdog in this war.

It's very hard to figure out what you're saying here, but I applaud you for saying it.

As for the other bit, the Boers did the same with field guns in the Boer war, the Japanese in Burma, the Vietnamese, well you can guess at that one. A wildly overmatched side can just use roving guns to annoy and harass their enemy because single guns firing a few rounds and then disappearing into a barn or whatever are very annoying to chase down. That doesn't mean they are effectively suppressing Russian artillery, it means they have suppressed themselves by being used in this fashion. While that means they are hard to silence (so the infantry will bitch we haven't fulfilled the CB mission), it also means they are not providing artillery support. They're just taking pot shots.

You wouldn't say a sniper is more effective than an infantry section if they shoot someone from long range and then run away. They won't defeat the infantry section, the infantry doesn't need to be equipped with battle rifles good out to 800m or whatever. Like those wily Boers taking potshots from the hills or firing a field gun at a camp twice and then disappearing into the veldt, the outgunned side is following a harassing, force preservation strategy.

Russia could disperse their guns into individual tubes firing single rounds, and they would be very hard to target indeed. It's just that they would be useless for everything else, and that's the deal here. A roving gun is supposed to be just 1 or 2 of a Regiment's 24.

Idk, I could talk about roving guns all day because it's one of the few ways to show dash and elan as an artillery officer, but like Jock Columns, it's situational and the tradeoffs are pretty steep. Still, everyone wants to do it on a major exercise and impress the brass, who remembers when he showed how clever he was in West Germany, cunningly hiding his gun in a railway cut and... :words: ... unexpectedly reappearing to fire from right beside the enemy's HQ! :words: ... many beers flowed that night :words: ... and that fraulein did turn 18 one day and is now his wife. Haw! Haw! Well done Captain.

Frosted Flake has issued a correction as of 15:00 on Jul 15, 2023

Cheatum the Evil Midget
Sep 11, 2000
I COULDN'T BACK UP ANY OF MY ARGUEMENTS, IGNORE ME PLEASE.
So how exactly did you exercise Jock's Column to impress the brass?

Cerebral Bore
Apr 21, 2010


Fun Shoe

BadOptics posted:

That really is the next step in their logic but for some reason it stops at "well obv NATO will crush RuZZia".

i guess they need to save it for constructing the post-war stab in the back myth around

CODChimera
Jan 29, 2009

good news for Ukraine - counter offensive not necessarily doomed to fail

quote:

Military analysts cautioned that it was still too early to draw definitive conclusions about the counteroffensive. “It does not mean that it is doomed to fail,” said Camille Grand, a defense expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations and a former NATO assistant secretary general.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/15/us/politics/ukraine-leopards-bradleys-counteroffensive.html

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration
Nap Ghost

Ardennes posted:

I mean Russian artillery is obviously so poorly coordinated that...the Ukrainians are barely able to get off the starting line, have taken huge attrition, and there are clear eyewitness accounts, if not video, of Ukrainians under continuous accurate fire. Also, HIMARS is really great and much better than Soviet stuff, which is why you barely hear about it anymore despite the US/NATO having sent a significant number of launchers.

I think we are hearing about HIMARs when the 58th CAA commander is telling the government that they need to pay attention to the fact that Russia, despite famously having a huge professional artillery force, is saying that he views one of the war's greatest tragedies in seeing Ukraine's relative success in dis-aggregating Russian artillery using long-range fires. I don't think he's referencing that Russian counter-battery fires are all being disrupted by dudes with rifles or superior Ukrainian electronic warfare. The major things we know very publicly that Ukraine has to counter Russian counter-battery radars are weaponry in the form of HIMARs, artillery, maybe HARMs (if they're being used that way, not clear), plus ISR both from their own non-standard ISR in the form of drones and special forces as well as third-party intelligence support from other nations.

So when General Popov says

quote:

“I drew attention to the greatest tragedy of modern war – the lack of artillery reconnaissance and counterstrikes and the multiple deaths and injuries caused by enemy artillery,” Popov said, according to the message circulated on the Telegram channel of Duma legislator Andrei Gurulyov.

He's likely talking about Russian artillery being hit by Ukrainian artillery, not saying that all the Russian stuff just broke on its own or Russian soldiers forgot how to do counter-battery fire or something.

Cerebral Bore
Apr 21, 2010


Fun Shoe

CODChimera posted:

good news for Ukraine - counter offensive not necessarily doomed to fail

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/15/us/politics/ukraine-leopards-bradleys-counteroffensive.html

now correct me if im wrong, but i seem to recall all the smartest posters assuring us that the counteroffensive would be a slam-dunk success and drive the hapless orcs into the sea in short order

Frosted Flake
Sep 13, 2011

Semper Shitpost Ubique

Cheatum the Evil Midget posted:

So how exactly did you exercise Jock's Column to impress the brass?

I got a commendation for technical proficiency because some brigade chief came by and asked about a piece of equipment. This was before the hi-viz slip-ons so I didn't know who he was, and talked for ... a very long time. That was pretty much the end of my time in the field lol.

Horizon Burning
Oct 23, 2019
:discourse:
mlmp08 is back on the himars train after, what, twelve months? sad

Ardennes
May 12, 2002

Frosted Flake posted:

It's very hard to figure out what you're saying here, but I applaud you for saying it.

As for the other bit, the Boers did the same with field guns in the Boer war, the Japanese in Burma, the Vietnamese, well you can guess at that one. A wildly overmatched side can just use roving guns to annoy and harass their enemy because single guns firing a few rounds and then disappearing into a barn or whatever are very annoying to chase down. That doesn't mean they are effectively suppressing Russian artillery, it means they have suppressed themselves by being used in this fashion. While that means they are hard to silence (so the infantry will bitch we haven't fulfilled the CB mission), it also means they are not providing artillery support. They're just taking pot shots.

You wouldn't say a sniper is more effective than an infantry section if they shoot someone from long range and then run away. They won't defeat the infantry section, the infantry doesn't need to be equipped with battle rifles good out to 800m or whatever. Like those wily Boers taking potshots from the hills or firing a field gun at a camp twice and then disappearing into the veldt, the outgunned side is following a harassing, force preservation strategy.

Russia could disperse their guns into individual tubes firing single rounds, and they would be very hard to target indeed. It's just that they would be useless for everything else, and that's the deal here. A roving gun is supposed to be just 1 or 2 of a Regiment's 24.

Idk, I could talk about roving guns all day because it's one of the few ways to show dash and elan as an artillery officer, but like Jock Columns, it's situational and the tradeoffs are pretty steep.

Admittedly, it is probably frustrating for Russian officers, in that they do still take attrition from Ukrainian artillery "sniping" their own, occasional drone strikes, or a storm shadow here or there. They aren't taking zero losses, but then you look at the broader situation of how exhausted Ukrainian forces have taken by this offensive and the type of losses they have taken, and it's clear who has the actual advantage in artillery and how telling it has been on the battle.

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration
Nap Ghost

Horizon Burning posted:

mlmp08 is back on the himars train after, what, twelve months? sad

It looks like Russia has come up with a lot of ways to degrade the rounds (Jamming, air defenses, dispersing Russian forces, moving more fequently), but I am legitimately surprised that Russia hasn't figured out a way to blow up the HIMARS units at the source yet. I knew they'd be a harder target than traditional rocket artillery, but didn't realize just how tricky it would be to target for Russia.

Frosted Flake
Sep 13, 2011

Semper Shitpost Ubique

Oh super annoying. For sure. It drove the Brits crazy in South Africa, and of course in Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq people were infuriated by being mortared and rocketed. Annoyance is a type of military effectiveness, I'm not downplaying it. Harassing fire is a key task, even if you have massive overmatch - if anything you're supposed to use your large amount of idle assets to harass the enemy.

In Italy and Northwest Europe, Allied 90mm and QF 3.7-Inch AA guns harassed the Germans while waiting around for the Luftwaffe to make an appearance. It allowed the Allies to use them for things like firing at road junctions at random intervals by night, things like that. Super annoying - and effective.

One change is that in Vietnam, the Americans responded to harassing fire by through more aggressive patrolling, all the way out to 122mm rocket range, several patrols out at a time, for days at a time. In the GWOT, that led to the Balloon Platoon, radars, ShotFinder, God knows what else costing God knows how much - and all within the wire and air conditioning.

Frosted Flake has issued a correction as of 15:12 on Jul 15, 2023

gradenko_2000
Oct 5, 2010

HELL SERPENT
Lipstick Apathy
https://twitter.com/berlin_bridge/status/1679934822305677337?t=1dNqFHG8cO5a8ibxK-h95g&s=19

Zeroisanumber
Oct 23, 2010

Nap Ghost

Cerebral Bore posted:

now correct me if im wrong, but i seem to recall all the smartest posters assuring us that the counteroffensive would be a slam-dunk success and drive the hapless orcs into the sea in short order

Media and government was really hyping it up, but it doesn't seem like it's materialized.

Idk if I'd like to be on the line waiting to jump off with a move this incredibly telegraphed.

Frosted Flake
Sep 13, 2011

Semper Shitpost Ubique

The Combat Mission games let you fire harassing missions and you can see how, just making it annoying to travel through an area you otherwise couldn't observe to deliver effective and accurate fires on, or that you can't even observe the enemy is passing through, you can still cause them to react, or suffer casualties if they choose to plod along.

Because Battlefront is using a game engine that feels like it's from 1999, the maps are small enough, bridges and fords so few, missions so short, that the right harassing mission will get you very angry emails alongside the PBEM file.

fizzy
Dec 2, 2022

by Jeffrey of YOSPOS
Good news for Ukraine - Ukraine is continuing to make gains in their counter-offensive.


https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-14-2023

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 14, 2023

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the frontline on July 14 and reportedly made gains in some areas.

The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations in the Bakhmut, Melitopol (western Zaporizhia Oblast), and Berdyansk (Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area) directions.[19]

The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces achieved partial success in the Bila Hora-Andriivka direction (9-15km southwest of Bakhmut).[20]

Ukrainian Deputy Director of the Department of Application Planning of the Main Directorate of the Ukrainian National Guard Colonel Mykola Urshalovych stated that Ukrainian forces have advanced over 1,700 meters in unspecified places in the Melitopol direction.[21]

Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces achieved a localized breakthrough of Russian defensive lines north of Pryyutne (15km southwest of Velyka Novosilka).[22]


[19]https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0T7iDgwWdNSn6kAmyLqt...

[20]https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0T7iDgwWdNSn6kAmyLqt... https://t.me/militarymediacenter/2523

[21] https://armyinform.com dot ua/2023/07/14/shturmovi-grupy-brygady-ngu-kara-dag-za-pidtrymky-tankiv-prosunulysya-na-ponad-1-700-metriv-mykola-urshalovych/; https://t.me/militarymediacenter/2530

[22] https://t.me/rybar/49653; https://t.me/wargonzo/13798

Cao Ni Ma
May 25, 2010




drat you dont say

crepeface
Nov 5, 2004

r*p*f*c*

Cerebral Bore posted:

now correct me if im wrong, but i seem to recall all the smartest posters assuring us that the counteroffensive would be a slam-dunk success and drive the hapless orcs into the sea in short order

he's defense expert, not an offense expert. what would the hell would he know

Isentropy
Dec 12, 2010

Ardennes posted:

The price of NATO membership is draconian.

If I had to defend one show, it would actually be Rome itself, where they did a pretty good job of not casting any single historical figure as permanently rotten with believable motivations.

from way back but fall of civilizations does a great job on this topic with respect to Rome* (Byzantium). it wasn’t just Islam or corruption or their bureaucracy (which actually worked) but a series of events and circumstances

they’ve given the best actual explanation I have heard for the Bronze Age collapse and who the “sea peoples” were

Ardennes
May 12, 2002

Frosted Flake posted:

Oh super annoying. For sure. It drove the Brits crazy in South Africa, and of course in Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq people were infuriated by being mortared and rocketed. Annoyance is a type of military effectiveness, I'm not downplaying it. Harassing fire is a key task, even if you have massive overmatch - if anything you're supposed to use your large amount of idle assets to harass the enemy.

In Italy and Northwest Europe, Allied 90mm and QF 3.7-Inch AA guns harassed the Germans while waiting around for the Luftwaffe to make an appearance. It allowed the Allies to use them for things like firing at road junctions at random intervals by night, things like that. Super annoying - and effective.

One change is that in Vietnam, the Americans responded to harassing fire by through more aggressive patrolling, all the way out to 122mm rocket range, several patrols out at a time, for days at a time. In the GWOT, that led to the Balloon Platoon, radars, ShotFinder, God knows what else costing God knows how much - and all within the wire and air conditioning.

I would say the issue for the Ukrainians is while they can get occasional strikes in here and there, it doesn't really seem to be adding much in terms of total capability they would need to break through Russian lines and they are still sending in men and resources into fights they can't win. At the same time, we know there has been plenty of artillery taken out by Russian lancet strikes specifically, and the Ukrainians clearly are very tight on ammo.

So the Russians do see some bleed, but not only the Ukrainians are taking much harder hits but they don't have the capabilities to regenerate those capabilities easily besides whatever the West is willing to break off for them.

That said, I think a NATO force would face some of the issues as the Ukrainians. While the airspace would be more contested, it is unclear that the US/NATO would bring the type of tonnage of ammo they would need to actually attrition Russian lines themselves, and even if the Russians retreated, they would still probably be taking high attrition without air superiority. I really don't see NATO ground vehicles/firearms/artillery being a game changer, and it would probably just boil down to numbers and how willing NATO and the US would be to dig into their populations.

Isentropy posted:

from way back but fall of civilizations does a great job on this topic with respect to Rome* (Byzantium). it wasn’t just Islam or corruption or their bureaucracy (which actually worked) but a series of events and circumstances

they’ve given the best actual explanation I have heard for the Bronze Age collapse and who the “sea peoples” were

Who did they settle on for the "Sea People", it seems like it a fair argument for either proto-Phoenicians or simply a mix of different people raiding at different times? Arguably, it was probably more of an issue of climate change causing a chaos and infighting across the eastern Mediterranean than any one thing, and following wars/raids were due to generally declining resources famine. That is at least my interpretation.

Ardennes has issued a correction as of 15:34 on Jul 15, 2023

Raccooon
Dec 5, 2009

Does the West even have that much more poo poo to send? Seems like they have been piecemealing it and allowing Russia to blow it all up.

mlmp08
Jul 11, 2004

Prepare for my priapic projectile's exalted penetration
Nap Ghost
My lukewarm take remains that this will likely generally stagnate, and the lines of stagnation might mot be that different than they were even 6-9 months ago. A long and dumb war.

Neither aide is very well prepared or sourced for big breakouts.

January 6 Survivor
Jan 6, 2022

The
Nelson Mandela
of clapping
dusty old cheeks


( o(
My personal theory that is shunned in academia because of its conservative nature is that the sea people refer to a race of terrifying half men half octopi creatures from the lost city of Atlantis that have remained dormant for dozen of centuries, carefully planning their return to subjugate humanity once and for all.

Why do you think they call it the north ATLANTIC treaty organization?

Frosted Flake
Sep 13, 2011

Semper Shitpost Ubique

crepeface posted:

he's defense expert, not an offense expert. what would the hell would he know

Defence is like any other field right now where if you want to:

Publishers: publish, get a chapter in a book, get asked to co-author a book or chapter

Print Media and TV: get quoted by the media, maybe even an interview in the media, write guest columns or op-eds for the media, maybe get a visiting columnist, contributor, whatever they call that position, anything in a Paper of Record, the Economist or Foreign Affairs/Policy magazine, anything in a popular magazine like Newsweek or a respected tastemaker like MacCleans,

Academics: present at conferences, attend panels and seminars, get contract teaching positions, have your book used as a textbook, present visiting lectures,

Museums: work with a museum on a visiting exhibition, get a position as a researcher,

The Blob: If you want fellowships, a think tank job, to get invited to parties, a consulting gig,

basically if you aren't in military, government or tenured,

You need to play ball.

Now the thing is, at least I'm not sure to what degree this is being enforced right now, and where the lines are, and I've avoided engaging with Ukraine at all. I do know a tenured professor at RMC wrote an article in a national paper in praise of Bandera and more-or-less apologizing (to celebrating) the Holocaust. Nothing happened to him, obviously, but pushing back at him probably would have consequences. As RMC is the centre of our little world, and the guy is obviously plugged into the national press, probably serious ones too.

That's not to say people in government, at Jane's, in the Army Journal, even RUSI, have held the same Slava position all the way through. If your focus is narrow enough you could always write about, for instance in a naval journal, Ukraine has no answer whatsoever to Russian submarines. It's undeniably true, you aren't being a pessimist, you still believe in final Ukrainian victory (because that alone would not decide it). So we've seen those the whole time. Often, I think this might be the editors, there's mention that therefore NATO must provide Ukraine with XYZ or, however Russia is definitely running out of this thing I just wrote about, don't worry or, Ukrainian pluck, tenacity and tactics will surely counterbalance this massive material/technological advantage. I guess what I'm saying is, imo, you need to hedge or soft sell.

We saw a lot of people feel bolder after the NATO weeks and on the eve of the counter offensive there were major journal articles, including in the West Point journal, spelling out that Ukraine is hosed, of course without ever saying it explicitly outright and maintaining that NATO could still save the day (somehow). But overall, the public having a bit of a dawning realization has opened up more space to, I would editorialize and say, to just be honest.

This isn't formal or anything, though for sure it's not like being idk a revisionist about the Twenty-fifth Dynasty of Egypt (might be a bad example as it's a bit of a hot button and you don't want to get in the public eye on that one). There seems to be more pressure and higher stakes, but especially when you are producing work for the government, the military, and lol work the public won't see at the checkout line but would have to read in a trade paper, nobody wants you to bullshit on the facts, you're just supposed to be idk is "supportive" the right word? Like, demonstrate your sympathy is with Ukraine even if empirically you just wrote 3000 words on how hosed they are. There are plenty of fields of research where there's that sort of sympathy required, like Social Work, and it's not always a bad thing.

Like that bioethicist at UofT who wrote a journal article about how unfortunately Canada has no choice to kill the poor, but it's good because we're ending their suffering, and she wishes it could be any other way, empirically yes, improved material conditions would fix their problems, but in the absence of that... well, he's 3000 words on A Modest Proposal, but with a frowny face.

Idk, we have real academics in C-SPAM so they'd be better qualified to talk about this stuff. I still sort of want to get the Doctorate in Galician Studies because it would unironically be interesting (If you haven't read it, The Last Years of Polish Jewry: Volume 2: On the Eve of Destruction: Essays, 1935-37 is pretty close to what someone should do, there's so much that needs to be written), but I would have to be insane to ask for that to be worked in as PD, paid school or even paid/unpaid leave / part time school while working, to do that right now. The potential to blow up your life, imo, even if nobody has said here's the line, here's what happens if you cross it, it feels like too much of a risk.

I hope you enjoyed my TED talk on why Defence Experts can't be Offensive Experts if they were going to say anything about the offensive failing (before it happened, and probably for at least another month or two).

VoicesCanBe
Jul 1, 2023

"Cóż, wygląda na to, że zostaliśmy łaskawie oszczędzeni trudu decydowania o własnym losie. Jakże uprzejme z ich strony, że przearanżowali Europę bez kłopotu naszego zdania!"

https://twitter.com/berlin_bridge/status/1654854016898138118

This was her two months ago.

No matter what anyone is saying now, it is clear that the pro-Ukrainian commentators thought they would achieve immediate, rapid success.

Frosted Flake
Sep 13, 2011

Semper Shitpost Ubique

drat it! I was going to use the Sea People instead of the XXV Dynasty as something that's pretty contested, and that you might not want to be on the wrong side of the consensus of, if you're pitching to Brill/Blackwell/Oxford/Cambridge or trying to talk a school into a contract class. I know way less about the Late Bronze Age collapse, but even when it comes to the historical advisor for the upcoming Total War Game, there's a lot of backbiting over it.

That one also has a tiny bit of Slava because iirc some flavour of Mediterranean nationalist or another, maybe the Greeks, has staked some claim to it. I feel like a Balkan nation might be involved somehow. Of course they're also super invested in the Illyrians/Dorians and that whole North Macedonia thing.

Mostly, the Late Bronze Age has enough of a scholarship accumulating that, imo, people can sense that it might be an emerging discipline, like Late Antiquity was in the 60's and 70's, and scholars want to put their stamp on it. With the Total War Game, museum exhibits etc. there's real money involved as well. If you made a name for yourself as the guy, that's a career and probably Oxford and Cambridge.

When Raffaele D’Amato put out the book on Sea People for Osprey and started getting buzz, I think some academic on twitter accused him of trafficking stolen antiquities. Eric H. Cline got out the first popular history volume that sold well, 1177 B.C.: The Year Civilization Collapsed and while I don't recall if people went after him to the same degree, apparently the updated edition from 2021 addresses some of the criticism.

It sounds silly, but as Christman said, the academy is shrinking, the academic book market is shrinking, so people are pretty serious about this stuff.

Frosted Flake has issued a correction as of 15:59 on Jul 15, 2023

Cerebral Bore
Apr 21, 2010


Fun Shoe
maybe it's actually z people and refers to an early orc incursion?

Isentropy
Dec 12, 2010

Ardennes posted:

I would say the issue for the Ukrainians is while they can get occasional strikes in here and there, it doesn't really seem to be adding much in terms of total capability they would need to break through Russian lines and they are still sending in men and resources into fights they can't win. At the same time, we know there has been plenty of artillery taken out by Russian lancet strikes specifically, and the Ukrainians clearly are very tight on ammo.

So the Russians do see some bleed, but not only the Ukrainians are taking much harder hits but they don't have the capabilities to regenerate those capabilities easily besides whatever the West is willing to break off for them.

That said, I think a NATO force would face some of the issues as the Ukrainians. While the airspace would be more contested, it is unclear that the US/NATO would bring the type of tonnage of ammo they would need to actually attrition Russian lines themselves, and even if the Russians retreated, they would still probably be taking high attrition without air superiority. I really don't see NATO ground vehicles/firearms/artillery being a game changer, and it would probably just boil down to numbers and how willing NATO and the US would be to dig into their populations.

Who did they settle on for the "Sea People", it seems like it a fair argument for either proto-Phoenicians or simply a mix of different people raiding at different times? Arguably, it was probably more of an issue of climate change causing a chaos and infighting across the eastern Mediterranean than any one thing, and following wars/raids were due to generally declining resources famine. That is at least my interpretation.

they seemed to settle on a mixture of raiding armies/refugees brought on by a early climate crisis, which would explain the lack of a sort of permanent lasting state or real organization

they did get across how it wasn’t cut and dry; Egypt “won” but at the cost of a lot and one of the first recorded strikes would happen soon after. they also mentioned that these sea peoples may have had access to iron which would explain how they were so effective and able to kit out armies

euphronius
Feb 18, 2009

I wonder if understandingwar.ru is available

Frosted Flake
Sep 13, 2011

Semper Shitpost Ubique

I'm pro-worker and the story of that Egyptian strike owns, if anyone hasn't read it yet.

More proof Marx was right, btw, since iirc he would have no idea that it happened at the time he was writing. I don't think the papyri had been found and translated yet.

OctaMurk
Jun 21, 2013
we're still hearing about himars a lot on the internet imo

you go to ukrainian propaganda sources and it is still extremely publicized and they take a lot of video of it shooting and drone video of impacts. it is mostly claimed strikes against russian artillery now.

its just not covered a lot on western media because people get bored of the same story, nor on russian media because its not as devastating after adaptations. but having a big missile hit somethin accurately remains a good weapon even if its not a superweapon.

OctaMurk
Jun 21, 2013
every single infantryman on any side of any war ever:

We're outnumbered!! Why wont command support us with all the artillery and poo poo! The enemys weapons are way better than ours and my food sucks!

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AnimeIsTrash
Jun 30, 2018

Glimm posted:

do you think NATO couldn't manage it or

what do you think a no fly zone is OP?

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