USCE 2023: Please let them shove a camera up your butt

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Mooseontheloose: May 13, 2003

BiggerBoat posted:

I notice this too. Kennedy gets amplified quite a bit on am talk radio and I'm pretty sure it's not because Republicans like his policies or platform. I assume the idea is to weaken Biden with a legit primary challenge but I'm not sure who they're targeting since most Democrats don't listen to that poo poo. I honestly wouldn't mind primarying Biden tbh but, man, the Democratic bench looks super loving thin and if Kennedy is all we've got then...well..it's frustrating.

The Republican play is that they think they will siphon off support because it's a Kennedy and you liberal lefties love Kennedy right?! It's the same thing with the John Jr. conspiracy theories, take a icon of the party and of a generation and take something associated with him and say ACTCHUALLY HE WOULD BE A REPUBLICAN. Taking aside there is no reason to believe that JFK or his son would support anything the Republicans are offering in 2023, they think Democrats will just flock to this because they think the Democratic party operates similarly to the Republicans.

It's the same reason Republicans pushed Kanye. They thought black voters would abandon the Democrats en masse because he was on the ballot.

BiggerBoat posted:

Is Joe Biden (and DJT) the best we can offer people in the face of an opposition party that's openly running on a theocratic fascism platform? I'll admit that Biden's tracked a little more to the left than I thought he would and done some decent things that surprised me but it sure would be nice to have a candidate that excited and inspired people with valid reasons for feeling that way. Al Gore was labeled as boring in 2000 but someone like him right now would be a refreshing change of pace. Hell, I'd take John Kerry.

The thing with Biden is no one is really fired up about him at all. No one really champions him or feels passionate about him. We just kind of tolerate him. He's way too god damned old for the demands of the job (he was in 2020) and the only reason he can likely win is because Trump and the modern GOP are still (for the moment) seen as insane and as far shittier absolute monsters. , although not quite by the margin a sane country would. That said, another 2016 where Trump loses the popular vote but ekes out an EC win, as things stand now, would not surprise me in the least. And it sucks that any celebrating I might do in 16 months if I'm wrong will be because gently caress fascists like Donald Trump and his cult, not from any real sense of achievement, genuine hope for good things or some kind of belief that Joe Biden will turn us around.

The problem is that, outside of this forum, Joe Biden hasn't done anything wrong or even egregious. He's fine, maybe even good for a President. He passed some important legislation in terms of changing our infrastructure and energy infrastructure and the economy is fine. Kamala Harris won't run against Biden for obvious reasons, Sanders is friends with Biden, and Warren had her shot. Running against an incumbent President is a tough road under good circumstances and could ruin you an the part.ySo what does that leave you?

1) Newsome - if he wants to run in 2028 he doesn't want to piss of Biden donors and supporters.
2) Whitmer - needs time to build a profile and more national presence.
3) AOC - wants Schumer's seat, working her way into being a player in the house.

And I can't think of anyone else who'd credibly challenge Biden right now.

Also, while I am here I came across an article from the Orange is the New Black crew about how awful Netflix is and how much they screwed some of the minor players in the show. Given the strike going on I thought it was relevant. Full article is here if you want to read it, I pulled out some of the choice quotes.

quote:

The actress Kimiko Glenn got a foreign-royalty statement in the mail from the screen actors� union, sag-aftra. Glenn is best known for playing the motormouthed, idealistic inmate Brook Soso on the women�s-prison series �Orange Is the New Black,� which ran from 2013 to 2019, on Netflix. With many television and movie sets shuttered, she was supporting herself with voice-over jobs, and she�d been messing around with TikTok. She posted a video in which she scans the statement��I�m about to be so riiich!��then reaches the grand total of twenty-seven dollars and thirty cents and shrieks, �WHAT?�

from disbelieving fans: �Wait how is that even legal??� �how is this even real you were on one of the biggest netflix shows.� This past May, with screenwriters on strike and labor unrest sweeping Hollywood, Glenn reposted the video on Instagram, where she has almost a million followers. This time, not only fans but castmates weighed in. Matt McGorry, who played a corrections officer: �Exaccctttlllyyy. I kept my day job the entire time I was on the show because it paid better than the mega-hit TV show we were on.� Beth Dover, who played a manager at the company taking over the prison: �It actually COST me money to be in season 3 and 4 since I was cast local hire and had to fly myself out, etc. But I was so excited for the opportunity to be on a show I loved so I took the hit. Its maddening.�

A decade on, however, some of the cast feel disillusioned about how they were compensated, both during the original run and in the years since. Television actors have traditionally had a base of income from residuals, which come from reruns and other forms of reuse of the shows in which they�ve appeared. At the highest end, residuals can yield a fortune; reportedly, the cast of �Friends� has each made tens of millions of dollars from syndication. But streaming has scrambled that model, endangering the ability of working actors to make a living. �So many of my friends who have nearly a million followers, who are doing billion-dollar franchises, don�t know how to make rent,� Glenn told me. That struggle has brought sag to the precipice of a potential strike, authorized by more than ninety-seven per cent of about sixty-five thousand voting members. (The negotiation deadline, after an eleventh-hour extension, is tonight.) In certain ways, �Orange� was an early indicator of how lopsided the streaming economy would be, and a number of cast members are now conflicted: they�re proud to have been on such a progressive, influential show, but feel shortchanged out of the wealth that it created. �We all took a risk together,� Alysia Reiner, who played the corrupt warden Natalie (Fig) Figueroa, said. �And the reward for Netflix does not seem in line with the reward for all of us who took that risk. I can go anywhere in the world and I�m recognized, and I�m so deeply grateful for that recognition. Many people say they�ve watched the series multiple times, and they quote me my lines. But was I paid in a commensurate way? I don�t think so.�

I spoke to ten actors from the show, many of whom spent several seasons as �recurring guest stars,� meaning that they had substantial roles over numerous episodes but weren�t part of the core group categorized�and compensated�as series regulars. �The first thing we say to each other when we see each other, is, like, �Yeah, it�s really hosed up�all my residuals are gone!� � Emma Myles, who spent six seasons playing Leanne Taylor, an ex-Amish meth addict, told me. �It�s always the first thing to come out of our mouths, because it�s so crazy and unjust. And everyone thinks we�re kajillionaires.� When Myles was cast, for the first season, she was having a rough time, she�d lost a restaurant job, then was displaced by a house fire, then moved into a new apartment that had bedbugs. She was about to give up on New York when she got a three-episode offer for �Orange.� �I would explain to people, �Yeah, it�s for Netflix,� and they were, like, �Oh, with the envelopes? That�s cute.� �

�Orange� was distributed by Netflix but produced by Lionsgate, which determined the cast�s up-front payments. Myles was paid scale, sag�s minimum rate, which was under nine hundred dollars per day. �They could and would pay us the absolute bare minimum, and there was really no wiggle room,� she recalled. Her contract was appended with sag�s 2012 New Media Agreement, which covered projects �produced for initial exhibition via the Internet, mobile devices, or any other platform known or which hereafter may be adopted� (now known as half of TV). sag had originally codified the agreement in 2009, after a yearlong standoff with the studios. At the time, streaming TV was mostly theoretical, except for the under-five-minute �Webisodes� that �Lost� ran on abc.com. The contractual terms were�and remain�much worse for actors than those of �linear� TV. (This is a major source of contention in the actors� current standoff with the studios.) Traditional broadcast series pay residuals for each re-airing, calculated as a percentage of the actor�s salary. The 2012 New Media Agreement entitled Myles to residuals only after the first fifty-two weeks the show was on the platform; the amount was based not on how many times each episode was watched but on a percentage of the licensing fee that Netflix paid Lionsgate to distribute the show. (If this sounds confusing, don�t worry�the actors also find it baffling.) Myles still gets around six hundred dollars a year for a handful of guest spots on �Law & Order: Special Victims Unit,� stretching back to 2004, but her residuals this year for �Orange� have come to around twenty bucks.�

When she joined the cast, in Season 2, Glenn was living in subsidized housing in Flatiron. Because the show didn�t pay for her transportation unless her call time was before 6 a.m., she either had to take the subway to the studio in Astoria or pay for a taxi herself. �The cab rides wouldn�t have been such a big thing if we were paid enough that it didn�t feel like we were spending our paychecks on it.�

For a while, there were more substantial residuals�only because Netflix didn�t cover every territory on the planet, and Lionsgate could resell the rights to cable channels overseas. All that dried up as Netflix went global and the show aged, and the residuals slowed to a trickle. �As the seasons progressed, we started to get more disgruntled about money, mostly because of how incredibly popular the show was,� one actor told me. �And then it felt, like, Well, my friends on network shows are incredibly wealthy.� The series regulars were eventually paid up to two hundred thousand dollars per episode, while the supporting cast made no more than fifteen thousand. Lori Tan Chinn, who appeared in six seasons as the inmate Mei Chang, told Time that she�d made so little on the show that she couldn�t afford the boxed sets; she considered going on food stamps, until she was cast on the Comedy Central sitcom �Awkwafina Is Nora from Queens.� Beth Dover recalled, �They�re telling us, �Oh, we can�t pay you this much, because we�re pinching pennies.� But then Netflix is telling their shareholders that they�re making more than they�ve ever made.� She added, �We have not been fairly compensated by any stretch of the imagination.�

Starting in 2015, �Orange� won three consecutive sag Awards for Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Comedy Series. But the cost of attending the ceremonies rankled some actors, who would have to fly themselves to Los Angeles and supplement the small stipends (if anything) they�d receive for beauty needs. �As the show got more and more known, my budget went down and down and down for any type of hair and makeup for awards shows,� Taryn Manning, who played Pennsatucky, said. Another actor recounted feeling �inadequate� because she couldn�t afford a designer dress and�like many in a cast that included a range of body types�couldn�t just grab a size 0 off the rack. �It sounds like champagne problems,� Glenn said. �But it�s expected of you.�

Before one sag Awards ceremony, the cast attended a house party thrown by Ted Sarandos, then Netflix�s chief content officer and now its co-C.E.O. Several actors remember that Sarandos gave a toast bragging that more people watched �Orange� than �Game of Thrones��a rare sliver of transparency about the ratings. (One actor called it a �whoops� moment.) But the cast found the line less uplifting than galling; if the show was really more popular than �Game of Thrones��whose top cast members have been said to make more than a million per episode by the end�why were the salaries for �Orange� so paltry? DeLaria told me, �I remember all of us thinking, �Give us the money!� But we were always saying, �Give us the money.� We were keenly aware that we weren�t being paid.� She added, referring to her residuals, �I get twenty dollars! I would love to know: How much money did Ted make last year?� (Twenty-two million in salary, plus stock options.)

How could a show so popular pay so little? One reason was the sheer size of the ensemble, mostly unknowns. At the beginning, the show was an experiment, and the tight budget was seen as a trade-off. �We were working in outlaw country,� Tara Herrmann, one of the writers and executive producers, told me. They were free to say or show most anything, she said, excepting erect penises and, in some international markets, swastikas. �We didn�t have to answer to corporate sponsorship. In a way, that�s why I always felt, like, O.K., so maybe the payouts aren�t as lucrative, but the offshoot is we get all this creative freedom.� She recounted a meeting with Netflix, in which she�d been told that the actors were getting a raise. �They were sure to explain that the pay bump wasn�t contractually obligated but a compensation they felt was overdue. I remember saying that I�d hoped the raise would put our cast on par with our sisters at �Game of Thrones� or any big HBO show. But I don�t think it did.�

Kohan (who declined to be interviewed) had little say over the actors� salaries, and she and her staff were just as in the dark about the ratings as the cast was. The day after the final season�s premi�re party, Herrmann went on, �Jenji and I were brought to a conference room, and they finally shared the numbers with us: a hundred million users had seen at least one episode, and I want to say at least half had completed all six seasons. From an artistic standpoint, those numbers are breathtaking. And, from a business perspective, absolutely staggering. After revealing the numbers, the executive asked us, �How does hearing this make you feel?� Jenji was silent and looks to me, and I said, �Like I want to renegotiate my contract.� �

As forward-thinking as �Orange� was, some people I spoke to saw Hollywood�s old blind spots at work. DeLaria observed, �I think some of this was because we were a female-centric show. I don�t think there�s anybody out there who doesn�t know that women are paid unequally to men. We can point at this show and really see it.� One representative blamed Lionsgate for lowballing the cast, particularly the actors of color: �The show was very much an ensemble. However, there was significant disparity between the pay of certain non-minority cast members and many actors of color who were the fibre of the show.� (Lionsgate and Netflix declined to comment on the record.) That disparity likely had roots in the narrative evolution of the series, which initially centered on Piper and her ex-girlfriend Alex Vause (Laura Prepon) but grew into a true multiracial ensemble piece. Danielle Brooks, who played Taystee, arguably the show�s emotional anchor toward the end, has said that she was paid less on the final season than the lead child actors made that same year on �Stranger Things.�

All this is particularly ironic, given the show�s pointed critique of an exploitative capitalist machine, a carceral system that makes inmates work for pennies. Granted, prison is many times worse than a stingy Netflix show, but the parallels, Glenn said, were �uncanny.� sag�s call to arms has only reminded the �Orange� cast that their role in the streaming revolution has a dark underbelly. �We need to update the system,� Dover told me. �They�re finding ways to cut our wages, and so the middle-class working actor is screwed.� Although the show launched some cast members�Uzo Aduba, Laverne Cox�into high-profile careers, others have struggled. That�s not uncommon in show business, but usually starring on a worldwide hit leaves you with some financial cushion. �When you�re a kid, you have this idea: once I�m on something that people actually see, I�ll be rich, and I�ll have a house that has a bathtub,� Myles said. �And you look around after being on a hit show, and you�re, like, Wow, I�m still in the same one-bedroom apartment. Was this how it was supposed to be?�

# ? Jul 15, 2023 21:30

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# ? May 27, 2024 20:27

Liquid Communism: Mar 9, 2004; коммунизм хранится в яичках

Shooting Blanks posted:

See also:

Hobby Lobby, guilty of looting ancient artifacts from Iraq, and went to SCOTUS to argue against policies requiring them to provide contraception and birth control on their health care plan
Chick-Fil-A, which for a long time held anti-LGBTQ+ beliefs (they have changed policies and no longer speak publicly about it)
Forever 21, which is as anti-labor as it gets (and that's saying a lot for fashion companies)
Tyson Foods, put profit ahead of employee safety during COVID-19. They were the worst among the meat packing plants, by far, in terms of number of cases. Also harmful to farmers and consumers with predatory practices.

Just a few examples off the top of my head (I had to look up the Forever 21 issue, to be fair)

Note Chick-Fil-A has only changed policies about speaking about it in public and dissolved their foundation to make their donations less trackable.

# ? Jul 15, 2023 21:40

yronic heroism: Oct 31, 2008

How �passionate� do I need to feel about a head of state? I�m casting a ballot, not joining a cult. Most mid century presidents were boring as hell and I can�t point to anything that made the �not boring� trajectory of politics afterward better.

# ? Jul 15, 2023 23:05

Zwabu: Aug 7, 2006

BiggerBoat posted:

I notice this too. Kennedy gets amplified quite a bit on am talk radio and I'm pretty sure it's not because Republicans like his policies or platform. I assume the idea is to weaken Biden with a legit primary challenge but I'm not sure who they're targeting since most Democrats don't listen to that poo poo. I honestly wouldn't mind primarying Biden tbh but, man, the Democratic bench looks super loving thin and if Kennedy is all we've got then...well..it's frustrating.

Is Joe Biden (and DJT) the best we can offer people in the face of an opposition party that's openly running on a theocratic fascism platform? I'll admit that Biden's tracked a little more to the left than I thought he would and done some decent things that surprised me but it sure would be nice to have a candidate that excited and inspired people with valid reasons for feeling that way. Al Gore was labeled as boring in 2000 but someone like him right now would be a refreshing change of pace. Hell, I'd take John Kerry.

The thing with Biden is no one is really fired up about him at all. No one really champions him or feels passionate about him. We just kind of tolerate him. He's way too god damned old for the demands of the job (he was in 2020) and the only reason he can likely win is because Trump and the modern GOP are still (for the moment) seen as insane and as far shittier absolute monsters. , although not quite by the margin a sane country would. That said, another 2016 where Trump loses the popular vote but ekes out an EC win, as things stand now, would not surprise me in the least. And it sucks that any celebrating I might do in 16 months if I'm wrong will be because gently caress fascists like Donald Trump and his cult, not from any real sense of achievement, genuine hope for good things or some kind of belief that Joe Biden will turn us around.

Virtually any Dem statewide officeholder is way more viable a candidate than RFK Jr. Whitmer? Sherrod Brown? Duckworth? Newsom? Pritzker? etc. He just gets more press than them right now because he is running.

Age aside the important fact is that Biden is the incumbent president. He beat Trump and he is not incompetent. That is a high bar for any primary challenger to clear. The incumbent is the presumptive nominee unless they are clearly incompetent or have some new scandal arise beyond what has been sloshing around since the original election. It is not ideal that Biden is ancient but a credible candidate won�t challenge him unless he has a sudden health crisis arise etc. You are only going to get the RFK Jr, Marianne Williamson etc.

There is a Democratic bench but they are not challenging the incumbent as is entirely to be expected.

# ? Jul 15, 2023 23:21

Fister Roboto: Feb 21, 2008

yronic heroism posted:

How �passionate� do I need to feel about a head of state? I�m casting a ballot, not joining a cult. Most mid century presidents were boring as hell and I can�t point to anything that made the �not boring� trajectory of politics afterward better.

If it's just about you personally casting a ballot then no, you don't need to be passionate. The problem is it's not just that, you also need to convince other people to vote, in places where voting has been made as difficult as possible. And you also need a huge number of volunteers to canvas and convince and remind people to vote. You also need donations to fund the campaign. That's the part that needs people to be passionate.

Will I vote for Biden? Most likely. Fortunately I'm in a state where I can mail in my ballot. Will I spend any time or money to help him get elected? gently caress no.

# ? Jul 15, 2023 23:40

James Garfield: May 5, 2012; Am I a manipulative abuser in real life, or do I just roleplay one on the Internet for fun? You decide!

BiggerBoat posted:

I honestly wouldn't mind primarying Biden tbh but, man, the Democratic bench looks super loving thin and if Kennedy is all we've got then...well..it's frustrating.

The Democratic bench is pretty good, if anything it's Republicans who don't have a bench. It was really weak in 2016, but 2018 and 2020 fixed it.

Nobody serious is going to primary Biden because, even though Biden doesn't look as dominant as Obama in 2012, he still has high approval with Democrats and a situation that would lead to Biden losing a primary would probably be bad for their general election prospects too.

BiggerBoat posted:

Is Joe Biden (and DJT) the best we can offer people in the face of an opposition party that's openly running on a theocratic fascism platform? I'll admit that Biden's tracked a little more to the left than I thought he would and done some decent things that surprised me but it sure would be nice to have a candidate that excited and inspired people with valid reasons for feeling that way. Al Gore was labeled as boring in 2000 but someone like him right now would be a refreshing change of pace. Hell, I'd take John Kerry.

The thing with Biden is no one is really fired up about him at all. No one really champions him or feels passionate about him. We just kind of tolerate him.

I mean there was an open primary in 2020 with lots of candidates including other big names like Bernie Sanders, and Biden won and it wasn't really close. I think what you should take away from the observations in the quote is that asking "does this politician inspire me personally" is not a good way of predicting their vote share in a national election.

# ? Jul 16, 2023 00:16

Farg: Nov 19, 2013

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L4sVoK7TAdc

check this poo poo out. absolutely unreal

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

# ? Jul 16, 2023 00:30

haveblue: Aug 15, 2005; Toilet Rascal

Farg posted:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L4sVoK7TAdc

check this poo poo out. absolutely unreal

I support all of this being added to the next must-pass bill

# ? Jul 16, 2023 00:42

yronic heroism: Oct 31, 2008

Fister Roboto posted:

If it's just about you personally casting a ballot then no, you don't need to be passionate. The problem is it's not just that, you also need to convince other people to vote, in places where voting has been made as difficult as possible. And you also need a huge number of volunteers to canvas and convince and remind people to vote. You also need donations to fund the campaign. That's the part that needs people to be passionate.

Will I vote for Biden? Most likely. Fortunately I'm in a state where I can mail in my ballot. Will I spend any time or money to help him get elected? gently caress no.

I�m not convinced what you call passion for someone is the only thing that fuels victories. Some of the biggest landslides in the last century were driven by people getting pissed at the other side or at least feeling they�d disqualified themselves. And while the era of national landslides is over, anything you�re saying about Biden now was also pretty true in 2020, when he didn�t have incumbency.

Tl;dr the �passion� criticism plays down the role of negative partisanship.

yronic heroism fucked around with this message at 00:49 on Jul 16, 2023

# ? Jul 16, 2023 00:46

Fister Roboto: Feb 21, 2008

yronic heroism posted:

I�m not convinced what you call passion for someone is the only thing that fuels victories. Some of the biggest landslides in the last century were driven by people getting pissed at the other side or at least feeling they�d disqualified themselves. And while the era of national landslides is over, anything you�re saying about Biden now was also pretty true in 2020, when he didn�t have incumbency.

Tl;dr the �passion� criticism plays down the role of negative partisanship.

Well, I didn't say it was the only thing that fuels victories. But it is pretty important.

# ? Jul 16, 2023 01:00

Timby: Dec 23, 2006; Your mother!

Farg posted:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L4sVoK7TAdc

check this poo poo out. absolutely unreal

A disturbing amount of these people aren't wearing helmets.

# ? Jul 16, 2023 01:07

yronic heroism: Oct 31, 2008

Fister Roboto posted:

Well, I didn't say it was the only thing that fuels victories. But it is pretty important.

I�ll rephrase, I think in modern general elections the importance is not as high as you�d think.

# ? Jul 16, 2023 01:09

Craig K: Nov 10, 2016; puck

honestly from what we saw in 2020, passion against the other guy can sometimes be just as powerful as passion for somebody

# ? Jul 16, 2023 01:12

UKJeff: May 17, 2023; by vyelkin

Timby posted:

A disturbing amount of these people aren't wearing helmets.

Do you wear a helmet when you go jogging in the city? Skateboarding on flat ground involves travel at around the same speeds

# ? Jul 16, 2023 01:20

Fister Roboto: Feb 21, 2008

yronic heroism posted:

I�ll rephrase, I think in modern general elections the importance is not as high as you�d think.

Fair, but I disagree. Passion against the other guy can only get you so far, as we saw in 2020 with Biden winning by an incredibly slim margin. It really should have been a landslide considering how badly Trump hosed things up. We'll see how things play out next year, but I definitely won't be betting any money on it.

# ? Jul 16, 2023 01:23

Staluigi: Jun 22, 2021

Fister is correct and I would go so far as to say it matters enough. Actually, it matters a lot in reverse, with your main goal being to extinguish passion in the other side by any means necessary

# ? Jul 16, 2023 01:37

Morrow: Oct 31, 2010

Biden is so boring he's difficult to attack. The right wing rage machine, you'll notice, has trouble landing any real hits on him unlike Clinton or Obama.

# ? Jul 16, 2023 01:46

Quorum: Sep 24, 2014; REMIND ME AGAIN HOW THE LITTLE HORSE-SHAPED ONES MOVE?

Morrow posted:

Biden is so boring he's difficult to attack. The right wing rage machine, you'll notice, has trouble landing any real hits on him unlike Clinton or Obama.

It helps here, I think, that the latent racism and misogyny of America at large can't as easily be leveraged to attack the guy.

# ? Jul 16, 2023 02:00

James Garfield: May 5, 2012; Am I a manipulative abuser in real life, or do I just roleplay one on the Internet for fun? You decide!

Fister Roboto posted:

Fair, but I disagree. Passion against the other guy can only get you so far, as we saw in 2020 with Biden winning by an incredibly slim margin. It really should have been a landslide considering how badly Trump hosed things up. We'll see how things play out next year, but I definitely won't be betting any money on it.

"It should have been a landslide" was because polls during covid underestimated Trump's support. With hindsight we know that was an error, and Trump in 2020 wasn't as weak a candidate as we thought.

# ? Jul 16, 2023 02:02

Trazz: Jun 11, 2008

Trump lost by like 10 million votes, it WAS a landslide and it's only going to be worse next year because the GOP has gotten even more insane and smaller in numbers

# ? Jul 16, 2023 02:10

Angry_Ed: Mar 30, 2010; Grimey Drawer

Trazz posted:

Trump lost by like 10 million votes, it WAS a landslide and it's only going to be worse next year because the GOP has gotten even more insane and smaller in numbers

yeah the issue, as usual, is the electoral college.

# ? Jul 16, 2023 02:13

Mooseontheloose: May 13, 2003

Joe Biden got 51% of the vote which is unheard of since like Reagan.

# ? Jul 16, 2023 02:16

Killer robot: Sep 6, 2010; I was having the most wonderful dream. I think you were in it!; Pillbug

It's hard to say people weren't excited either, even if it was a low-key nostalgia for the relatively "normal" times of the Obama administration. A boring guy in the White House so you don't have to wake up every morning wondering what he did this time was exactly what a lot of people during the Trump administration longed for.

"Excitement" is a weird thing and really subjective in intensity and manifestation based ion your social circle just as much as it is who people are excited for.

# ? Jul 16, 2023 02:21

Mendrian: Jan 6, 2013

In an ideal democracy, you want your head of state to be dull as dirt. Because if people are passionate about issues, they should be promoting those issues locally and voting in representatives that represent their issues. That's logical. The president isn't king of America, so under ideal circumstances you don't really want people rallying around a single person. That person is a figurehead, and they can't possibly appeal to the myriad issues that people actually care about, so they're really more of a public servant whose job is to be the manager of the various departments your functional Congress has created and funded. In this world, the President is the High Bureaucrat. They shouldn't have a lot of strong feelings on issues because they're job is to do, not to implement their own feelings on things.

However, we passed that threshold a long time ago. Our Congress isn't issue-based, it's party-based, so now you've got these two big-tent parties that don't really represent anybody. You've got the Party of Annihilation and the Party of Drag Your Feet and Do Nothing, so you need as many people as possible to vote against Annihilation. To that end, having the president be an inspiring person that reminds people that maybe they shouldn't vote for self-destruction is pretty important. The president needs to be likable because likability is all anyone seems to care about, and the stakes are so high.

We are sorta circling the drain in that way, with each election being another existential test, with destruction on one side and status quo on the other, and each time the bad guys win they drag the country closer to destruction. The stakes are existence versus self-destruction, rather than selecting something as boring as the country's most important bureaucrat. I'm not sure it's sustainable but it's important right now.

# ? Jul 16, 2023 02:24

Willa Rogers: Mar 11, 2005

Mooseontheloose posted:

Joe Biden got 51% of the vote which is unheard of since like Reagan.

Obama won 53 percent of the vote in 2008, and 51 percent in 2012.

# ? Jul 16, 2023 02:42

Charlz Guybon: Nov 16, 2010

Mooseontheloose posted:

Joe Biden got 51% of the vote which is unheard of since like Reagan.

Obama got 52.9% in 2008 and 51.1% in 2012.

Biden got 51.3% in 2020.

Those are the best marks since Bush in 1988 got 53.4%

# ? Jul 16, 2023 02:53

Killer robot: Sep 6, 2010; I was having the most wonderful dream. I think you were in it!; Pillbug

The actual unusual win I recall Biden got was beating "Did not vote" among eligible voters. That had been a really long while, though I forget the year.

# ? Jul 16, 2023 02:56

Mooseontheloose: May 13, 2003

Charlz Guybon posted:

Obama got 52.9% in 2008 and 51.1% in 2012.

Biden got 51.3% in 2020.

Those are the best marks since Bush in 1988 got 53.4%

I stand corrected.

# ? Jul 16, 2023 02:57

Bar Ran Dun: Jan 22, 2006

DeSantis is militarizing the Florida state guard.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/15/us/florida-state-guard-desantis.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare

This isn�t a National Guard unit. It (was) a small disaster response group. Think hurricane aid. Now it�s had a �law enforcement� group added, and apparently they�re armed now. Article lays out that they have chased off the original folks running it and have turned it into �male fantasy camp�.

Looks like Brownshirt training to me. Down where I grew up in Venice Micheal Flynn doing his crazy bullshit

https://www.heraldtribune.com/story/news/politics/2023/07/13/michael-flynn-dodges-question-on-special-counsel-jack-smiths-probe/70408202007/

You�ll see the �hollow� mentioned in this one

https://apnews.com/article/michael-flynn-sarasota-christian-nationalism-578e9142bc41b46e90048a01f317bd96

My assumption is they�ve been working on the bones of a state affiliated violent revolutionary group in Florida.

Bar Ran Dun fucked around with this message at 03:15 on Jul 16, 2023

# ? Jul 16, 2023 03:13

FlamingLiberal: Jan 18, 2009; Would you like to play a game?

I saw some pictures where they were literally wearing brown shirts so yeah, they aren't being subtle here

# ? Jul 16, 2023 03:16

Bar Ran Dun: Jan 22, 2006

FlamingLiberal posted:

I saw some pictures where they were literally wearing brown shirts so yeah, they aren't being subtle here

Flynn wrote papers on counterinsurgency in Afghanistan, he�s quite knowledgeable on how insurgency works. He also knows how intelligence and information warfare works. In the sense of, he has written decent
academic papers on those subjects and has practical experience.

This is a very very dangerous thing.

# ? Jul 16, 2023 03:21

FlamingLiberal: Jan 18, 2009; Would you like to play a game?

Bar Ran Dun posted:

Flynn wrote papers on counterinsurgency in Afghanistan, he�s quite knowledgeable on how insurgency works. He also knows how intelligence and information warfare works. In the sense of, he has written decent
academic papers on those subjects and has practical experience.

This is a very very dangerous thing.

Are we sure he has any of that part of his brain left at this point? He's been a loon for like 15 years now.

# ? Jul 16, 2023 03:26

Bar Ran Dun: Jan 22, 2006

FlamingLiberal posted:

Are we sure he has any of that part of his brain left at this point? He's been a loon for like 15 years now.

I think he�s a foreign asset / crazy.

# ? Jul 16, 2023 04:25

drawkcab si eman ym: Jan 2, 2006

Angry_Ed posted:

yeah the issue, as usual, is the electoral college.

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/07/15/electoral-college-third-party-democrats-00106472

Politico posted:

West�s campaign for the Green Party nomination is already underway.

Politico posted:

Stein(2016) ran strongest in..., Wisconsin (1 percent)

Green 1.32% in AZ 2016(pre-election polling 1-3%),
4% Gary Johnson Libertarian, 1.3% Other, & .7% Evan McMullin.

Green .2%(0-3% pre-election polling) in GA 2016.
3% Johnson, .3% McMullin and .04% Other.

Green aforementioned 1.04% in WI, Johnson 3.58%, .4% McMullin and 1.3% Other.

Politico posted:

While a No Labels candidate is still a hypothetical � the group says it won�t seek the ballot unless the two major-party candidates are unpopular and there�s a path to victory for a moderate alternative �

Politico posted:

West could be more formidable, however. He�s a longtime public figure who could harness some of the liberal dissatisfaction with Biden�s presidency so far � particularly among otherwise solidly Democratic voting blocs.

Politico posted:

The traditional, core swing states rank much lower for third-party voting, according to this analysis. All but Nevada (No. 21) are in the bottom half: Wisconsin (No. 27), Arizona (No. 28), and Georgia (No. 48).

West is polling at 4-6%. Maybe he loses Georgia & Nevada?

# ? Jul 16, 2023 04:43

Ghost Leviathan: Mar 2, 2017; Exploration is ill-advised.

The USA really seems to be outright on a Civil War trajectory, where on partisan lines there are states actively not recognising basic human rights and clearly gearing up to engage in active genocide. How long can Democrat leadership sit back while that happens?

# ? Jul 16, 2023 05:10

yronic heroism: Oct 31, 2008

Every political figure who would lead a secession is running or preparing to run for president, which is sort of the opposite of secession. That could change if chuds find themselves locked out of power for an extended period but it�s not the case now.

# ? Jul 16, 2023 05:51

Byzantine: Sep 1, 2007

The reason the secession happened when it did was Abe Lincoln wasn't even on the ballot in ten states out of 33 total, yet still won the presidency handily with 40% of the popular vote (82% turnout) because of the Electoral College. The power of the South as a bloc within the Union was broken, it was a crushing electoral defeat the likes of we'll probably never see again.

Lincoln got 1.9 million votes and 180 EC
Southern Democrats - 850,000 votes, 72 EC
Constitution Union Party - 600,000 votes, 39 EC
Democrats - 1.4 million votes and... 12 EC.

I mean, that's a 'constitutional crisis' result just on the raw numbers. The slavers saw that they would never be able to contest anything in the federal government again, so they gambled on secession, lost, and were brought back into the fold where now their heirs control ~50% of the Union and can win national elections on the margins with regularity.

Byzantine fucked around with this message at 09:24 on Jul 16, 2023

# ? Jul 16, 2023 09:22

Alkydere: Jun 7, 2010; Capitol: A building or complex of buildings in which any legislature meets.
Capital: A city designated as a legislative seat by the government or some other authority, often the city in which the government is located; otherwise the most important city within a country or a subdivision of it.

I really don't think we're heading to a civil war, at least not in Ye Olde 1800's way. In addition to what Byzantine said, that mess also required a geographical separation. In the mid 1800's you could say "This area is a slave state, this are is a free state" and while there would always be local shades of differences it was pretty clear. Today's divide is more rural-urban based and is just way too messy for a similar result outside of maybe Florida. And the conservatives are welcome to a state that's simultaneously melting and sinking into the ocean due to their policies.

That isn't to say I believe everything will be perfectly fine. I am hopeful but I'm very aware things could get way worse and violent before they get better.

# ? Jul 16, 2023 10:05

Gyges: Aug 4, 2004; NOW NO ONE
RECOGNIZE HULK

drawkcab si eman ym posted:

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/07/15/electoral-college-third-party-democrats-00106472

Green 1.32% in AZ 2016(pre-election polling 1-3%),
4% Gary Johnson Libertarian, 1.3% Other, & .7% Evan McMullin.

Green .2%(0-3% pre-election polling) in GA 2016.
3% Johnson, .3% McMullin and .04% Other.

Green aforementioned 1.04% in WI, Johnson 3.58%, .4% McMullin and 1.3% Other.

West is polling at 4-6%. Maybe he loses Georgia & Nevada?

The 3rd Party Boogieman is and always will be, until or system is fundamentally changed, complete bullshit that is peddled by the parties and those interested in The Horserace. The most successful 3rd Party run in the last 60ish years was Ross Perot, and his run didn't actually change who won.

-3rd Party candidates always poll way better than their actual votes come election day.

-3rd Party voters are not Democratic/Republican votes gone wrong. The idea that they are simply transferable to either major party is moronic. Maybe if we were seeing other parties that were pulling above 10% of votes there would be a real pool of voters who would totally have voted Blue/Red instead of Green/Whatever Color. However when we're talking about groups coming in at or barely above rounding error numbers, those are almost all people who were otherwise not going to vote if their no-hope choice wasn't on the ballot.

-On the off chance that the stars align and Cornell West, having done the most improbable of Fusion Dances with George Wallace, actually impacts the election that's still the fault of Joe Biden/The DNC for losing. It's not on the Green Party in general or Cornell West in particular. It's on the Democrats for being so loving terrible that they found a way to lose to Donald loving Trump twice. For putting forward such a terrible record and platform that a significant portion of the nation decided that voting for someone who had no chance of winning was better than voting for Joey B.

# ? Jul 16, 2023 10:46

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# ? May 27, 2024 20:27

Mooseontheloose: May 13, 2003

The Boston Globe has a report on extremists in the military.

quote:

COLUMBUS, Ohio � Thomas Develin idled in the parking lot of Columbus Torah Academy most mornings of 2022, cradling a loaded Glock handgun and scanning the front door.

Four years earlier, a gunman had opened fire on the Tree of Life congregation in Pittsburgh, prompting Jewish community leaders here to beef up security. They were picky about the hiring process, careful to avoid �rent-a-cops,� whose training was scant and trustworthiness suspect.

Develin � a 24-year-old Eagle Scout and active National Guardsman � seemed perfect for the $30-an-hour gig. He had just been promoted to sergeant, held Top Secret security clearance, and had logged seven years of military service, including an overseas deployment.

�We took comfort in all that,� recalled Justin Shaw, executive director of Jewish Columbus. �If you can�t trust that resume, what can you trust?�

Develin lingered outside the school in his typical parking spot one cloudy March morning last spring. The loaded Glock handgun lay in his lap, its barrel pointed toward the entrance. His eyes fixated on the parents and students shuffling in before the bell. His fingers fired off message after message on his cell phone into an online chat with fellow National Guardsmen.

�I�m at a Jewish school and I�m about to make it everyone�s problem,� he wrote. �The playground is about to turn into a self-defense situation. Simultaneously I will shoot the next parent dropping their kid off at the school.�

The violent threats hardly registered in the chat of a dozen or so service members. The group was aware � perhaps even proud � of the deviant nature of their messaging. After all, the private forum was named �Degeneracy,� and discussions included rape fantasies, drunk driving, proclamations that the Holocaust wasn�t deadly enough, and reverence for mass shooters and terrorists. And Develin had expressed a desire to kill Jews before.

Develin posted a Snapchat video of himself sniffing a rifle and saying, �This one smells like dead Jews." (COURT DOCUMENTS)

The only thing different on that day was that his violent musings caught the eye of the mother of a Guardsman in the chat. The stream of notifications piling up on her son�s phone deeply disturbed her, and she called the authorities.

When police searched Develin�s apartment two weeks later, they found 24 firearms, several semi automatic rifles, a rocket launcher, and supplies and instructions to create remote-detonated explosives. Another 10,000 rounds of ammunition were seized from his car. His Internet history included 87 searches for the 2019 mass shooting at a Christchurch, New Zealand, mosque. It was, the lead police detective told the Globe, �an almost unmanageable amount of evidence.�

Even so, Develin�s arrest made headlines only briefly. His criminal case cruised quietly through the justice system and the National Guard discharged him, honorably. Only one other Guardsman in the �Degeneracy� chat was charged. The case was just a blip on the national security radar, reduced to a tale of a lone Guardsman gone rogue.

But in reality, Develin�s story echoes that of many more young men in uniform, trained and entrusted to defend the country, but at war with the very values they swore to uphold.

�If the military ever decides to crack down on extremists they�re going to have to kick at least half of us out,� Develin once wrote using his screen name of Patrick Bateman, an homage to the serial killer in the film �American Psycho.�

There is no reliable data on the prevalence of extremist views among service members, and the likelihood, with roughly 1.4 million Americans in uniform, is that the percentage is very small.

But there is this: In the last five years, at least 82 current and former military service members have been arrested and exposed as harboring far-right, antigovernment, or neo-Nazi ideologies, according to a Globe analysis of court documents, media reports, and studies compiled by independent researchers. (That number excludes the 178 active and former military members arrested in connection with the Jan. 6 insurrection.)

Some plotted to kill law enforcement members, torch minority churches, sabotage their own military units, kidnap politicians, and destroy national infrastructure. Others amassed arsenals in preparation for perceived race and civil wars. A handful have fired � at a shopping mall, police officers, and a carful of teenage girls.

It�s not that service members are more likely to be radicalized; it�s that the scattering of extremists in the ranks has extra potential for mayhem: they�ve been trained to kill and they�re more likely to act on it, according to experts reached by the Globe.

�This is the single biggest threat to the security of the country,� said Daryl Johnson, a former Department of Homeland Security analyst, focused on domestic terrorism. �I see this only getting worse. I don�t see it ever getting better in my lifetime.�

Of the 82, Jack Teixeira � the now infamous 21-year-old National Guardsman from Dighton � might be the most well-known, having prompted an international scandal by posting classified documents alongside antisemitic and antigovernment rhetoric in online forums. A federal investigation led to his arrest in April.

But most cases are much less conspicuous, generally surfacing in seldom-examined court documents related to charges not obviously linked to extremism. Mentions of military service and extremist ties are often only found deep within affidavits and sentencing memorandums.

The details can be chilling. Take 23-year-old Kyle Morris, a decorated Army veteran from New Hampshire arrested last summer. He kept a framed photo of Adolf Hitler by his bed and wanted to �mag dump a crowd of Black Lives Matter protesters, especially the darker ones.� Court documents show his family worried he would either �become very patriotic or become a mass shooter� when he joined the military four years earlier. The Army gave him an honorable discharge.

Or 25-year-old Matthew Belanger, of Long Island, N.Y., while in the Marines in 2020, wrote the manifesto for a grass-roots group called �Rapekrieg,� which combines the Nazi goal of murdering Jews with a philosophy that women can be controlled through rape. He had plotted to kill people of color and rape �white women� to produce �white children.�

Or 23-year-old Noah Anthony, a Fort Bragg soldier with plans �to physically remove as many [Black and brown people] . . . by whatever means need be.� In addition to guns and Nazi paraphernalia, police in 2022 also found among Anthony�s belongings an American flag with a swastika in place of the stars.

Each was ultimately charged with gun crimes, as is often the case with the murky, ill-defined world of domestic terrorism. The cases exemplify how the military ethos of serve and protect can be inverted in rare cases into something ugly, virulent, and violent.

In the last decade, Defense Department officials have said many times that leadership believes the number of extremists in the military is small, and, by and large, the majority of the military serves honorably and does not hold � much less act upon � extremist beliefs. But this offers limited reassurance, as even a small percentage of extremist service members can have an outsized impact.

�It�s one thing to have the desire to commit an attack,� said Christopher Betts, who works in the Columbus Police Department�s Counter Terrorism unit. �It�s another to be trained how to do it in the most effective way.�

The town of Waverly, Ohio, sits about an hour south of Columbus along the west bank of the Scioto River. Its motto � �Working for a vibrant future� � reflects its working-class ethos. It also hints at its dark past.

Throughout the 19th century, Waverly was a sundown town, where Black people were prohibited from being present after nightfall. That reputation made the town a draw for members of the Ku Klux Klan who stood on the steps of the town�s courthouse in 1994 and spewed messages of white supremacy to a crowd of 100 or so residents.

Thomas Develin was born three years later. He had known from the age of 7 that he wanted to join the military. As a gangly high schooler, he blushed as his mother pinned an Eagle Scout medal to his lapel at a Boy Scouts ceremony. He was an average student, with an affinity for video games and guns, who determinedly clung to his childhood dream.

His first stop after graduation? The Ohio National Guard, he told a local reporter at the Scout ceremony.

He operated radars for the Second Battalion of the 174th Air Defense Regiment, a brigade based out of McConnelsville, a village in the southern hills of Ohio where Amish farms abound and cell phone service evaporates. Eventually, he and roughly 280 other battalion members found themselves en route to Iraq in 2017 for a nine-month deployment.

Develin would tell prosecutors, five years later, that he struggled to adjust to the humdrum rhythms of Ohio upon his return stateside. His reverence for the military decayed into outright hatred of authority. The 22-year-old found solace in a community of disaffected service members on Discord, a social media site created to discuss video games. But the conversation in Develin�s chosen forum centered on far more somber topics.

�Along with several like-minded soldier friends, I discovered a military counterculture on social media that consisted of extremely dark humor,� Develin explained in a letter to the federal judge hearing his case. �It included things like committing war crimes, drinking on duty, gross negligence involving military weapons and equipment, drug use, doomsday preparation, government collapse, authoritarian rule, and civil war.�

A cadre of current and former National Guardsmen filled the �Degeneracy� group chat. One of those men, James Ricky Meade II, was arrested alongside Develin. In a message to the group, Meade had threatened to crash a stolen plane into a beer plant � because it resembled the Twin Towers � and suggested that Develin kill a police officer who confiscated his guns, as well as the officer�s family.

�Do the whole family in,� Meade wrote to Develin in a Discord message. �And hang the corpses up for all to see.�

Meade pleaded guilty to one count of inciting violence and was put on a three-year probation. Develin, meanwhile, received a six-year sentence in federal prison.

The state prosecutor told the Globe that the Guardsman would not have served nearly as long a sentence � or any time at all � if he had not also manufactured guns with his 3-D printer and been charged in federal court on those firearms offenses.

Four months after being criminally charged, the Guard dropped Meade and Develin through a �general under honorable conditions� discharge, a status given to members with satisfactory performance but minor disciplinary issues.

It is unclear if any of the other Guardsmen in the chat were disciplined or discharged, despite a year and a half passing since the Guard was made aware of the Discord server.

The Ohio National Guard told the Globe there were �ongoing disciplinary actions occurring because of our internal investigations,� but that �it would be inappropriate to comment on these actions until they are completed.�

The Defense Department has, by its own omission, struggled to keep an official count of those discharged due to their extremist affiliations or domestic terrorist threats.

�Until the DoD uses a centralized database for allegation reporting and tracking, the DoD will have inconsistent tracking of prohibited activities participation; problems identifying and collecting data from multiple, decentralized systems; and difficulty validating the accuracy of reported data,� wrote the authors of a December 2022 internal report on extremism.

Most of the limited data that does exist has been gathered by nongovernmental organizations drawing on open-source material.

One such center is the University of Maryland�s National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism, or START, which was founded in the wake of 9/11 when the government initiated an all-out blitz against international terrorism. But today, most of START�s research focuses on domestic terrorists, which it sees as a far greater threat to the country. The group shared with the Globe a database it maintains of all confirmed extremists with military affiliations.

�The [Defense Department] does not help us in any regard in finding this information,� said Mike Jensen, a senior researcher at the nonprofit center. �They could give us military records but they don�t. We only know about the guys who commit a crime, but the truth is that most cases don�t leave a paper trail.�

The year 1995 was a tipping point for extremism.

In August, Army veteran Timothy McVeigh, an antigovernment extremist with a history of attending KKK rallies, parked a truck with a homemade bomb in front of a federal building in Oklahoma, killing 168 people, including 19 children.

Four months later, three white Army paratroopers at Fort Bragg in North Carolina murdered a Black couple. One of the killers slept with a Nazi flag over his bed. Another 19 Fort Bragg soldiers were discharged for taking part in neo-Nazi activities. But even then, military leaders said they found minimal evidence of extremist activity in the Army.

Then came the War on Terror. Military recruiters and base commanders needed to fill the ranks fast.

�Effectively, the military has a �don�t ask, don�t tell� policy pertaining to extremism,� explained one internal DoD report from 2005. �If individuals can perform satisfactorily, without making their extremist opinions overt through words or actions that violate policy, reflect poorly on the Armed Forces, or disrupt the effectiveness and order of their units, they are likely to be able to complete their contracts.�

The Obama administration attempted to document what it saw as a rising tide of right-wing extremism in a report by Department of Homeland Security analysts in 2009. Johnson � a registered Republican and Army veteran � was the lead author. He discovered far-right extremists were reveling in a renaissance online.

�You always had these village idiots, who were ostracized in their communities for these extremist beliefs or conspiracy theories,� said Johnson. �But the Internet has allowed those village idiots to find community all within the anonymity, privacy, and comfort of their home.�

Johnson�s team issued a warning that military returning from the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan might be particularly susceptible to radicalization, as their combat experience had given them weapons training and prestige. The report ricocheted through the right-wing pundit universe. One commentator dubbed it �The Obama DHS Hit Job on Conservatives.�

The Obama administration formally apologized to veterans and eventually withdrew the report.

Twelve years later, thousands stormed the US Capitol during the Jan. 6 insurrection. Investigators later revealed that four out of the five Proud Boys members indicted on sedition charges had previously served in the military.

In response, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin ordered a Pentagon-wide stand down to discuss extremism within the ranks. He formed a countering-extremism working group led by a young Army veteran named Bishop Garrison.

In a 21-page report released that December, the group offered up six recommendations to detect, deter, and mitigate insider threats from extremists. It outlined guidance on defining extremism and supporting service members transitioning into the civilian world.

The backlash was swift and immediate. Tucker Carlson, then a Fox television host, and Alex Jones, an alt-right radio show host, zeroed in on Garrison. Senator Marco Rubio of Florida responded with his own report, titled �Woke Warfighters,� which included a section dedicated to Garrison, calling him �a rabid partisan who routinely denigrates conservatives.� There is no mention of Garrison�s military service or two tours in Iraq.

Six months later, Garrison left the Biden administration for the private sector. And as of this spring, just one of the six recommendations from his group had been heeded, a Pentagon spokesperson told reporters on May 18, in the wake of Teixeira�s arrest.

�The Department of Defense takes extremist activity seriously and continues to make progress toward implementing the actions and recommendations,� wrote the department in a statement to the Globe.

And so, there remain no Pentagon-wide protocols to identify extremists within the ranks. The discovery of a service member with radical views is often made entirely by happenstance.

A traffic stop reveals an illegal weapon that prompts a search warrant that discovers a Nazi flag pinned to a Marine�s bedroom wall.

A Facebook friend notices a series of antisemitic posts, each growing more detailed with time.

Or, in Develin�s case, the mother of a fellow Guardsman sees the threats pile up on the screen of her son�s phone.

# ? Jul 16, 2023 13:24

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > USCE 2023: Please let them shove a camera up your butt

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