(Thread IKs:
fatherboxx)
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CAT INTERCEPTOR posted:Big enough to pack a couple of hundred kilos of explosives so probably So not really, I guess. Underwater explosions are very effective against ships but structures like bridges are stronger and also don't float in water.
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Jul 17, 2023 06:04
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Vox Nihili posted:The prior truck-bound IED attack caused significant damage to both spans. It's certainly possible. It coincided with a fuel train which caught fire, iirc. e: if there were multiple missile hits then it of course increases the likelihood of more extensive damage Nenonen fucked around with this message at 06:12 on Jul 17, 2023 |
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Jul 17, 2023 06:05
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Last time the damage to the trainsection was mostly from a burning fueltrain that was on the bridge when the truckbomb exploded.
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Jul 17, 2023 06:57
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The rail bridge is more important, but it's narrow and sturdy, probably very hard to hit with missiles The road bridge is not as important but it's an excellent thing to hit to show that the russian army can't protect it and tourism season is over Discendo Vox posted:iirc the rail bridge was restored and operable (possibly at reduced weight) in relatively short order. I think a footing support would need to be taken out for it to become genuinely difficult to repair. One rail track out of two were damaged. The rail traffic was restored iirc in may, not short order as it took about 9 months
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Jul 17, 2023 07:29
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When initial poo poo started popping up about this event I was half expecting it could just be something like a pinch hit that might have gotten the bridge closed for an hour or two and got current occupants of crimea newly super nervous about exit signs, now it almost sounds like morning's gonna bring russia congratulating itself for a nighttime operation to radically increase boat clearance
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Jul 17, 2023 07:32
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A video from the morning train going across, so I guess the rail part of the bridge is fine: https://i.imgur.com/UMg7LDg.mp4
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Jul 17, 2023 07:34
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Okay apparently that is not a regular train as train service seems to be halted: https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3736626-train-services-stopped-on-kerch-bridge.html
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Jul 17, 2023 07:38
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If it were indeed missiles thats pretty huge - would mean that all those layers of AA that have been put there cant reliably protect anything in Crimea. Also maybe new western missile arrival?
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Jul 17, 2023 07:59
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Source for the BBC saying it was surface drones from the Ukrainian navy:BBC posted:A source in the Security Service of Ukraine tells BBC Russian the attack was "a special operation of the naval forces of the armed forces of Ukraine and the Security Service of Ukraine".
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Jul 17, 2023 08:09
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fatherboxx posted:If it were indeed missiles thats pretty huge - would mean that all those layers of AA that have been put there cant reliably protect anything in Crimea. Also maybe new western missile arrival? Whatever it was it's put russia in the position of having to decide if they want to put repair equipment out on the place they couldn't protect
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Jul 17, 2023 08:11
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Kikas posted:A video from the morning train going across, so I guess the rail part of the bridge is fine: Could the surface look that clean with a missile hit? I don't see a hole punched in it or anything, obviously we don't have the best view.
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Jul 17, 2023 08:23
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fatherboxx posted:If it were indeed missiles thats pretty huge - would mean that all those layers of AA that have been put there cant reliably protect anything in Crimea. Also maybe new western missile arrival? Some bigwig will be in trouble for sure. Just how many failures can Shoigu endure?
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Jul 17, 2023 08:24
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Bashez posted:Could the surface look that clean with a missile hit? I don't see a hole punched in it or anything, obviously we don't have the best view. Someone made a really good post about the exploding sea drones in one of the war threads the last time the bridge was hit. The long and short of it is that setting off an explosion on the water's surface directly underneath the bridge deck directs the force of the blast into lifting the deck, which switches the stress from compressive stress (which it is designed to support against) to tensile stress (which it is definitely not intended to support against).
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Jul 17, 2023 08:35
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HolHorsejob posted:Someone made a really good post about the exploding sea drones in one of the war threads the last time the bridge was hit. The long and short of it is that setting off an explosion on the water's surface directly underneath the bridge deck directs the force of the blast into lifting the deck, which switches the stress from compressive stress (which it is designed to support against) to tensile stress (which it is definitely not intended to support against). I was wondering about this - is that maybe why they targeted the road bridge rather than the rail bridge (which has a greater logistical role), since the road bridge is much lower so it's going to have a significantly increased impact?
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Jul 17, 2023 08:39
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Kraftwerk posted:Article here goes into detail about how James Vasquez basically faked his volunteer experience in Ukraine. I remember him posting some dumb poo poo that involved wearing Russian uniforms, at which point I lost all suspension of disbelief. I can imagine some volunteers doing really dumb stuff; I cannot imagine their Ukrainian handlers being happy about them posting mywarcrimes.txt on the internet.
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Jul 17, 2023 08:44
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HolHorsejob posted:Someone made a really good post about the exploding sea drones in one of the war threads the last time the bridge was hit. The long and short of it is that setting off an explosion on the water's surface directly underneath the bridge deck directs the force of the blast into lifting the deck, which switches the stress from compressive stress (which it is designed to support against) to tensile stress (which it is definitely not intended to support against). [submarining across the kerch strait in a carbon fiber tube, mashing my madcatz controller] ok now is really not the time to get back into that tensile vs compressive stress poo poo with me okay
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Jul 17, 2023 08:49
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Looks like one of the bridge supports is badly damaged, seems like that might be more annoying to fix than just bringing in a new span?
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Jul 17, 2023 08:55
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Chalks posted:Looks like one of the bridge supports is badly damaged, seems like that might be more annoying to fix than just bringing in a new span? Last time 2 road sections on either side of 1 pillar mostly fell into the ocean, plus a nearby train burst into flames and damaged the rail bridge. So for overall damage I'd say this time looks less severe. The real difference is this is a much better time for Ukraine to continue attacking the bridge because for all the issues and delays, the offensive to cut off Crimea is actually underway now. Kherson was still a month away from liberation last time the bridge was hit. And Ukraine now has more long-range strike options available, with more likely on the way. We'll see what happens of course but I would not be surprised if this is the time they start trying to take Kerch out permanently.
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Jul 17, 2023 09:06
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The psychological effect is probably even more significant - after a demoralising coup attempt, slow Ukrainian advance, Putin appearing weak, and purges in the military command, a spectacular event like this with easily distributable pictures of a symbolic piece of infrastructure deep in the rear is going to add to the tensions
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Jul 17, 2023 09:18
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What might happen next is that Ukrainian drones target Russian shipping to Crimea. Russia had already moved some of the logistics to ships in anticipation of attacks.
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Jul 17, 2023 09:22
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Chalks posted:Looks like one of the bridge supports is badly damaged, seems like that might be more annoying to fix than just bringing in a new span? tbh there's nothing to do on that front but wait for some twitter personality with suspiciously related expertise to come barreling on down with "As a bridge engineer with a degree in naval drone explosives who worked on several double parallel railroad-road truss arch bridges in eastern europe alone, I've looked at all the pictures and video of the damage and here's why the bridge is totally fine / will be down for a year / is extremely hosed forever, 1/43"
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Jul 17, 2023 09:27
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Orthanc6 posted:Last time 2 road sections on either side of 1 pillar mostly fell into the ocean, plus a nearby train burst into flames and damaged the rail bridge. So for overall damage I'd say this time looks less severe. However last time one of the road bridges was not that badly damaged so road traffic could recommence fairly soon. No chance of that this time, road traffic's out of the question for months. Sure, train line is undamaged this time but I suspect that's only a matter of time till it's targeted.
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Jul 17, 2023 09:28
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The Economist has a rather convincing article summarizing Meduza and Mediazona reporting on how many Russians have died in Ukraine since the Feb 22 invasion -- likely around 47,000, including 27,000 of which are verified. They also report around 80k additional WIA that were disabling. This is including Wagner+Russia, but I'm not sure if LNR/DPR are included. https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2023/07/12/a-new-study-finds-that-47000-russian-combatants-have-died-in-ukraine (You can stop loading before the paywall loads but after the full article loads, try private browsing if you don't get it right on the first try.) That's more combat deaths than the sum-total of all of Russia's/USSR's wars since 1945 (41k) and about the same as the US's combat deaths in Vietnam (~48k). The US also had 150k serious WIAs in Vietnam. Ukraine's numbers are no doubt also pretty horrific, even if lower in absolute numbers they will certainly be higher in population percentage terms.
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Jul 17, 2023 10:49
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47-55000 is the range they offer and no that is not counting dpr/lpr
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Jul 17, 2023 10:55
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9 years in the blink of an eye https://twitter.com/WhatADdoing/status/1680874578560557056?t=Iic1v7LeDYNGXyPQgLXGjQ&s=19 I guess I hadn't really paused to consider just how motivated NL are to provide training to Ukrainian pilots, etc.
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Jul 17, 2023 11:58
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Failed Imagineer posted:9 years in the blink of an eye Putin: guys, guys guys, come on! We were all having fun, with the missile launchers and the novichok. Seriously…are you actually pissed at me?
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Jul 17, 2023 12:17
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Failed Imagineer posted:9 years in the blink of an eye Compared to other famous terror incidents (I will call it that, even if it was an accidental firing), it did not kill that many people. But proportionally, it killed more Dutch than 9/11 did Americans. And not just primarily working adults, many children as well. I know of several people in my eider social network since then who lost acquaintances and / or relatives. Many people were angry at the government at their initial meek response towards Russia. I was thinking that once again, the Dutch government would just rather go after business as usual and not risk whatever precious business interests they thought they had with Russia. Them coming out with a crystal clear verdict after the investigation helped. But the Dutch response towards the made clear that it wasn't just cynical realpolitik they were after. It's a small grace but I'll take it.
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Jul 17, 2023 12:19
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Failed Imagineer posted:I guess I hadn't really paused to consider just how motivated NL are to provide training to Ukrainian pilots, etc. Seeing that procession again still hits me. I can't really speak for the entire country, but to me it always felt very off that relations with Russia remained largely 'normal' after MH17 for economic reasons. Not even so much because of the disaster itself, but because of the constant lies and obstruction to prevent families of victims from learning the truth that came out of Russia afterwards; it was very clear that we were dealing with a completely untrustworthy regime of bandits and murderers, far before Russia invaded Ukraine. I had a colleague whose brother died on MH17 at the time, and everything that Russia did to prevent fact-finding afterwards made the pain a lot worse for her. To be clear, the relationship was a lot less friendly than before MH17; this picture of the king of the Netherlands and Putin was taken a few months before MH17 (and before the invasion of Crimea) during the Winter Olympics in Russia and would note have been possible afterwards, and language from Dutch officials about Russia was sometimes harsh. But in a practical/economic sense not much seemed to change, although Google tells me exports to Russia did drop for a while. It's sad and to me not exacly a flattering fact for our country that it took the invasion of Ukraine to finally (largely) break the ties with Russia. I do think that without MH17, the Dutch motivation to support Ukraine would be largely the same though.
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Jul 17, 2023 12:30
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I am an idiot.
Mooseontheloose fucked around with this message at 18:07 on Jul 17, 2023 |
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Jul 17, 2023 14:11
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Looking at the video of the damaged bridge, the section that has dropped is dark fresh tarmac. I suspect it's the same section that was hit last time, which makes sense if you suspect they half-assed the repairs. They wouldn't skimp on something so vital to the war effort, would they?
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Jul 17, 2023 14:13
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OzyMandrill posted:Looking at the video of the damaged bridge, the section that has dropped is dark fresh tarmac. I suspect it's the same section that was hit last time, which makes sense if you suspect they half-assed the repairs. They wouldn't tho, would they? I recall from last fall that the Russians announced the bridge was only damaged superficially and they would have it up and running again soon. Considering how important the bridge is for supplying their troops it's a priority to get up and running again as quickly as possible.
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Jul 17, 2023 14:16
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Mooseontheloose posted:No Labels is putting balloons in the air to see if Joe Manchin is viable as a 3rd Party candidate and in no way is the commentary paid for on CNN. To be fair this is labelled as "analysis" but reads as a No Labels press release. You can't do foreign politics in here, this is the War Room!!! 
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Jul 17, 2023 14:21
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Orthanc6 posted:Last time 2 road sections on either side of 1 pillar mostly fell into the ocean, plus a nearby train burst into flames and damaged the rail bridge. So for overall damage I'd say this time looks less severe. The rail bridge damage aside, I imagine the only way to replace a bridge support is to remove the 4 spans that it holds up first, so I'm not sure the superficial damage to the spans tells the whole story. Obviously depends on how severe the damage to the support pillar is. Chalks fucked around with this message at 14:33 on Jul 17, 2023 |
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Jul 17, 2023 14:27
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The Ukrainians are going to keep hitting it as well. If Russia can repair it again they will let them waste time and money doing it then just blast it again. The more times it is hit, especially in the same areas, the more likely you will see catastrophic damage develop though the entire structure. I seriously doubt Russia is doing hardcore inspection of the bridge regularly. Flaws are going to develop.
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Jul 17, 2023 14:54
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Bashez posted:Could the surface look that clean with a missile hit? I don't see a hole punched in it or anything, obviously we don't have the best view. Looks like the support under it was damaged. I wonder if Ukraine managed to sneak one of those semi-submersible boat drones in?
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Jul 17, 2023 15:25
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Sure looks like it, but those things would need to have what, 500nm range to come in from Odessa?
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Jul 17, 2023 15:34
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Ripperljohn posted:Sure looks like it, but those things would need to have what, 500nm range to come in from Odessa? It is highly unlikely they were launched from Odessa. An educated guess is that it was launched from sea probably less than 100nm away. They don’t seem to be that big so you could reasonably hide and launch them from a fishing vessel for example. Command and control would likely be done from a second vessel or even possibly on land. If I were going to do it I’d load up at port in Turkey, go out, launch, maybe do a little actual fishing and come back to port in the morning. It would be next to impossible tell what vessel(s) is loading/launching the drones and Russia isn’t about to spark an incident going after fishing boats in the Black Sea. This sorta attack has been a concern for the US Navy for a very long time.
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Jul 17, 2023 16:10
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Russia is also not extending the grain exports deal, per CNBC. Wheat prices have already jumped and that'll get worse, as transit costs will also rise to get Ukraine's grain out of the country. It's not just economic damage, it's also damaging to global food security, which is also being impacted by the record heat.
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Jul 17, 2023 16:14
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Mooseontheloose posted:[ur. It's not a mistake. Isn't no labels funded by right wing billionaires? They know what they're doing. It's just vote splitting under a different flag.
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Jul 17, 2023 16:21
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What is the feasibility of Turkey protecting Ukrainian shipments made without Russia's permission as they previously threatened to do?
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Jul 17, 2023 16:23
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