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Whistling rear end in a top hat posted:I would argue that it's more than a "pretty strong incentive" -- it would create a choice where right now there is no choice. Your currency is either pegged to the dollar (or petrodollar) or nothing. Sure, but the larger issue is that it's not just about having options, it's about what kind of pressure the people who can control them can put on you and who those specific people are. A lot of the objections to running everything through the current system is that if you piss off certain countries bad enough, you can get embargoed and hosed. Ultimately you're just shifting that power to Beijing, and as problematic as Washington can be it's not like Beijing doesn't attach strings to poo poo either. Because let's face it, the BRICS are not equal partners in any kind of hypothetical new monetary system. It's not the choice between two food places (with the implicit option of cooking yourself) it's the choice between two hegemons. That doesn't make the current system good but it also doesn't make the alternative inherently better, either.
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Jul 16, 2023 18:43
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now that i think about it, them just doing it may be one underlying cause of the exports and wages dropping like a stone and unemployment skyrocketing in china. xi jinping was reported to be super callous about it, telling peeps to "吃苦" (endure it) but if its the consequences of conscious policy that would explain things heilongjiang is already hosed in material ways. the meth capital of china, at least by arrests
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Jul 16, 2023 18:44
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pmchem posted:I did some math today, enjoy. gonna be until september for core pce headlines to really have a chance to go away My wild rear end guess is we track most closely along the red line ("5.25%" ?) now that most of the price shocks from the Russian invasion of Ukraine are behind us I know this isn't the stock gambling thread but I feel like inflation chat is better focused here than that thread (where I got self-owned by claiming inflation wouldn't hit 3%) Over in the 3D printing thread someone was complaining about specialty filament prices skyrocketing and then showed a screenshot of the eShop where that filament was mostly sold out. Seems like people are happy to sacrifice savings rate to offset inflation so far.
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Jul 16, 2023 18:54
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Hadlock posted:(where I got self-owned by claiming inflation wouldn't hit 3%) I was just messing with you btw! But it was funny that headline cpi hit *exactly* 3 in July. PCE has some tough year-ago comps coming up here, as pmchem showed. But I think we're generally gonna follow that 0.2 line. Rates are well above any measure of inflation now, and that is supposed to be the standard, at least according to Twitter economists. Even though inflation peaked almost a year ago, 150 basis points back. But I'm getting more fearful of the always-just-about-to-hit recession. I thought the fed was gonna stop raising months ago, and would start dropping by now. But they seem hellbent on not even talking about dropping until something *really* breaks. Banks don't count apparently.
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Jul 17, 2023 05:24
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two semimajor banks, one with a weird concentration of risk
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Jul 17, 2023 14:23
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Why would they feel pressure to drop rates right now? Employment is still sky high and inflation is (at best) barely under control.
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Jul 17, 2023 14:54
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Lockback posted:Why would they feel pressure to drop rates right now? Employment is still sky high and inflation is (at best) barely under control. Because it's worse for everyone when they are always acting 6-12 months too late? To raise or lower. I understand there isn't too much pressure as far as their mandate. But the political pressure has to be ramping up with the election. If they keep rates restrictive "until something breaks", it's now likely to break at a very bad time for Biden and his Bidenomics.
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Jul 17, 2023 15:44
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Why would you say the current rates are "restrictive"? They are not anywhere near unprecedented levels. They are at what they were at prior to the 08 crash and pretty much where they were for most of the 90s (and well below the 80s). The anomaly here is the sub-1% they were at for so long, I don't think it's a goal or anything to do whatever you can to get back there. I expect they're mostly motivated to keep things level and only lower them if they need to, not because low interest rates are "the good thing" to have.
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Jul 17, 2023 15:57
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Lockback posted:Why would you say the current rates are "restrictive"? They are not anywhere near unprecedented levels. They are at what they were at prior to the 08 crash and pretty much where they were for most of the 90s (and well below the 80s). The anomaly here is the sub-1% they were at for so long, I don't think it's a goal or anything to do whatever you can to get back there. The fomc have been describing these levels as restrictive, it's not just an internet rando pulling that word out of his rear end  . In the simplest terms, rates are restrictive when the numbers to get most things going "just don't work" right now. You can see this in plenty of data. The basket of "leading economic indicators" has been scarily negative for awhile now - https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators Manufacturing pmi is terrible: https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-manufacturing-sector-weakest-nearly-three-years-march-ism-2023-04-03/ In the past, expectations for inflation (and future revenue growth) were significantly higher, so business plans could swallow 7,8,9,10%+ loans.
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Jul 17, 2023 16:56
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Inflation was pretty low in the 90s too, I'm not sure what you mean about that. And inflation is a big threat to something like LEI. Its also noteable that LEI was catering while interest rates were low too. In any case, I don't think you'll see pressure to lower interest rates UNTIL cracks start forming. They aren't going to proactively drop rates while unemployment was still so far below 5%. That's just going to restart the inflation balloon.
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Jul 17, 2023 17:43
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This is somewhat anecdotal and highly specific but for my transportation sector manufacturing clients, order intake is absolutely slowing rapidly. That's because order boards for new Class 8 trucks are sold out 12 months in to the future. That kind of situation is unprecedented and insane. If zero new Class 8 orders were placed for 12 months, the plants would still run at capacity. This is not an industry that typically has this level of backlog and in order for it to return to vaguely normal a decrease in new orders placed must occur. But that correction could absolutely occur without having an impact on overall production levels.
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Jul 17, 2023 17:52
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Do those truck factories have unusually inflexible manufacturing capabilities? A naive person might just point out a one year spike in demand doesn't necessitate building out a larger factory, sort of like the toilet paper fiasco at the beginning of the pandemic. Toilet paper factories "fixed" the problem by adding a third shift and repairing problems on the production lines faster.
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Jul 17, 2023 19:22
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No, in terms of configurability of end product, but generally yes in terms of throughput outside of doing things like adding shifts. The assembly process is broken in to separate steps and proceeds according to a standard interval. You can rearrange the assembly process in various ways to change the number of steps and the time interval but that generally involves taking down the plant and changes to equipment, tooling, et that all have long lead times and are expensive. If you're already running three shifts, your options are very limited and it's hard to scale labor quickly if you're adding a third shift. The other problem is there's a reason that the truck factory is called final assembly. Many of the thousands of components in a truck BOM are orders of magnitude more complex than anything like paper products. They all have various manufacturing complexities and dependencies and asking to get say, 3x more alternators from your supplier puts in place a chain of activities for that supplier, its suppliers, etc. And not having one piece of those thousands available when the line needs it totally fucks up your process. You park the truck incomplete once it's done and then someone has to go back and fix it manually. edit: nobody's building much capacity because everyone knows that the spike is fairly transient and is the result of parts availability and limited production in early COVID months. but you still gotta produce those trucks and that revenue is still going to come in the future
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Jul 17, 2023 19:49
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In my mind those trucks are just three modular parts, the chassis, drivetrain, and engine which each come in three sizes which haven't changed in basic concept since the 40s. Maybe they added an autoloader or something
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Jul 17, 2023 20:05
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id be surprised if the bom only has O(10^3) rows on it
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Jul 17, 2023 20:07
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bob dobbs is dead posted:id be surprised if the bom only has O(10^3) rows on it it depends on what level of the BOM you're willing to go to like at the first level of the BOM the engine is a unitary component. Hadlock posted:In my mind those trucks are just three modular parts, the chassis, drivetrain, and engine which each come in three sizes which haven't changed in basic concept since the 40s. Maybe they added an autoloader or something you own a TA, how are you this naive
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Jul 17, 2023 21:09
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Oops I meant to say coachwork not engine The TA is just unibody chassis and drivetrain, with two options for each
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Jul 17, 2023 21:28
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Hadlock posted:Oops I meant to say coachwork not engine how simple do you think those those things are to build? now multiply that with a lot of chassis and powertrain options, plus 100 years of materials science innovations and computerized electronics
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Jul 17, 2023 21:50
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'in my mind' was supposed to be a continuation of 'a naive person' but I guess doesn't parse as well as I thought https://archive.is/J8gdU WSJ posted:Restricting Chip Sales to China Could Backfire on U.S., Industry Group Says I feel like the cat is out of the bag on using Western chips to simulate/model weapons stuff, you can fly in on a tourist visa, swing through every microcenter in the US in a week and buy enough CPU for a super computer, or just buy the stuff on eBay. Or whatever. The world is awash in chips. I guess this does limit us military contractors from building the super computers for the Chinese but they seem to have plenty of domestic expertise at this point Second, restricting chip fab tech is just going to push the Chinese to build their own. For whatever reason the Russians failed to do this on their own over the last 35 years so maybe it's really one of those technologies where only one company globally is capable of it? Seems like the Chinese will do everything in their power to gain this capability in the next ten years, especially as the US keeps cutting them out of the supply
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Jul 18, 2023 04:23
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the us also doesnt have the capability, its tsmc and samsung
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Jul 18, 2023 04:26
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The base machines everyone uses that generates the specific desirable wavelength for photo lithography for the duration needed comes from a company in, the Netherlands, I think. The power behind the throne, so to speak
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Jul 18, 2023 04:30
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bob dobbs is dead posted:the us also doesnt have the capability, its tsmc and samsung Eh, Intel isnt that far behind TSMC/Samsung. Maybe a year or two. Micron, Global Foundries, and Texas Instruments are all manufacturing in the US with modern-ish fab capabilities as well
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Jul 18, 2023 05:23
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drk posted:Eh, Intel isnt that far behind TSMC/Samsung. Maybe a year or two. There's also ARM in the UK, although IIRC they got taken to the loving cleaners by the Chinse basically hijacking one of their factories in China and turning it into Totally-Not-ARM edit: Well, ARM does the design, not the fab, but the point with the Chinese factory was that they've basically got whatever generation of ARM designs were being made there. edit 2: apparently they got control of it again?. Cyrano4747 fucked around with this message at 14:55 on Jul 18, 2023 |
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Jul 18, 2023 14:52
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ARM does design and IP but has no fabs or ability to produce hardware.
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Jul 18, 2023 15:58
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Cyrano4747 posted:There's also ARM in the UK, although IIRC they got taken to the loving cleaners by the Chinse basically hijacking one of their factories in China and turning it into Totally-Not-ARM Yes, the former chairman/CEO stole their company seal which basically gave him full legal powers I was watching Spirited Away last night, and realized it has basically the same plot line  (unclear if the ARM seal had a Frog on top)
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Jul 18, 2023 17:59
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dont gently caress around w signing contracts in the west, dont gently caress around w chops in the east
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Jul 18, 2023 18:04
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Lot of acronyms Good be good, bad be bad
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Jul 18, 2023 19:32
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certainly not the last to have this happen https://fortune.com/2023/07/18/commercial-real-estate-billionaire-barry-sternlicht-starwood-default-atlanta-office-tower/ | https://archive.is/azO8Z quote:just defaulted on a $212.5 million Atlanta office tower taiwan bought an office tower in SF about this time last month for slightly less than $1000/sq ft which is about the going rate for condo real estate in the area https://sfstandard.com/2023/06/28/taiwan-san-francisco-downtown-office/
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Jul 19, 2023 01:27
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South Africa affirming that they'd arrest Putin if he stepped on their soil seems like not a great endorsement to the S in BRICS
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Jul 21, 2023 15:56
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Lockback posted:South Africa affirming that they'd arrest Putin if he stepped on their soil seems like not a great endorsement to the S in BRICS Wasn't that theorized to be the reason the ICC actually filed charges against Putin, since they were having their little fan club meeting in Jo-berg this year? I just checked, and South Africa and Brazil are signatories of the Rome Statute but none of the other three. Of course, neither is the US. I have no idea what the consequences of not arresting him would be, but I'm sure they're just as happy to not have to.
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Jul 21, 2023 16:13
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Lockback posted:South Africa affirming that they'd arrest Putin if he stepped on their soil seems like not a great endorsement to the S in BRICS Is South Africa politically stable enough right now to pull something like that off
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Jul 21, 2023 18:19
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Lockback posted:South Africa affirming that they'd arrest Putin if he stepped on their soil seems like not a great endorsement to the S in BRICS https://apnews.com/article/south-africa-ramaphosa-putin-arrest-warrant-c62b4be0fd177d827214199cb60db98f “I must highlight, for the sake of transparency, that South Africa has obvious problems with executing a request to arrest and surrender President Putin,” he said. “Russia has made it clear that arresting its sitting president would be a declaration of war.” “It would be inconsistent with our Constitution to risk engaging in war with Russia,” Ramaphosa added. Sounds like South Africa really doesn't want to arrest Putin.
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Jul 21, 2023 18:38
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To be fair, Russia would actually need to want him back to start a war. Given recent events I think those odds are a lot closer to 50/50 than Putin would prefer
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Jul 21, 2023 19:59
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Can someone explain why U.S home prices rose for the 5th consecutive month in May? Is it because there is no inventory? What would a soft landing/interest rate pause look like on home prices?
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Jul 26, 2023 02:46
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Demand outstrips supply. There are less buyers, but even fewer sellers. It’s no consolation, but (— nationally, all pricing is very sensitive to local factors —) housing prices are lagging inflation, so there’s nominal price gain but real price loss. If your money is sitting in SGOV or whatever short-term treasury, you’re not losing ground in the price race. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS FRED shows a massive 10% decrease in the median sales price for Q1 ‘23 which takes housing prices all the way back to… Q1 ‘22 lol.
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Jul 26, 2023 03:20
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err posted:Can someone explain why U.S home prices rose for the 5th consecutive month in May? Is it because there is no inventory? What would a soft landing/interest rate pause look like on home prices? Yeah maybe interest rates will eventually start to bite into housing prices but i think rates will have to stay "higher for longer" before that process takes hold, maybe at least another year or two+. AT LEAST. If rates drop anytime in the next couple years i think prices continue to balloon from there In the short run, it just seems that supply continues to exceed demand. Impossible to predict, fools errand truly, just depends on what inflation does, far too many extrinsic factors
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Jul 26, 2023 05:12
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Maybe tomorrow I'll have some time and I'll go dig up my effort post about why housing is going to continue to be in demand for a long time TL;DR version, millennials are the biggest generation in a long time, millennials are moving into peak childbearing years. Therefore those that can beg borrow or steal are buying their way out of apartments and condos right now On the flip side, the Fed actually tracks new house permits, new house starts and some other stats. I forget right now but basically we're behind about 7 million homes. Yes million. That's equivalent to, and I'm working from memory here, like 175 large apartment buildings/complexes needing to be built in every city over 100,000 of which there are something like 300. And that's just to pull us out of the deficit we have been in since before 2008. Actually the deficit got way worse immediately after 2008 and hasn't gotten any better. Fed has some great graphs on this if you want to look it up. Housing
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Jul 26, 2023 05:28
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Hadlock posted:In my mind those trucks are just three modular parts, the chassis, drivetrain, and engine which each come in three sizes which haven't changed in basic concept since the 40s. Maybe they added an autoloader or something Yes, because engines and cab and chassis designs haven’t had to take decades of legal emissions requirements into effect to not only produce more power and torque, have a longer usable life, longer intervals between checks, and also meet stricter emissions and use diesel with much less sulphur content…oh and all the safety equipment in the vehicle requiring fleets of ECUs. Yep. The devil is in the details, and the details of trucks built in 2023 is much more complex even than 2003. KYOON is right, plus even something like spinning up more factory capacity would take tens to hundreds of millions of dollars and wouldn’t come in time to meet this current built up demand. Plus, truck sales in the US are weirdly cyclical in their own ways, as they’re work tools at the end of the day. The OEMs will do everything in their power to meet that order backlog, but it’s anomalous right now. Can only imagine something like it before diesel sales are inevitably banned.
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Jul 26, 2023 05:43
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Hadlock posted:Maybe tomorrow I'll have some time and I'll go dig up my effort post about why housing is going to continue to be in demand for a long time Millennials were born 1980-81 to 1995. Thirties to early forties is not peak child-bearing age by any sane definition. My wife's parents bought their first house at age 22 in 1973. That's peak childbearing age.
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Jul 26, 2023 18:01
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Pittsburgh Fentanyl Cloud posted:Millennials were born 1980-81 to 1995. Thirties to early forties is not peak child-bearing age by any sane definition. The median age for giving birth has been climbing steadily, and made headlines a bit ago for crossing 30. Now, I don't know if that's median age for first child or what, but women waiting longer to have children is a pretty pronounced trend. It also increases if you control for income - long story short, the sort of people who are in the home buying market are also delaying children. fake edit: Mean - not median - age for first child is now 27.3 according to the CDC. Note that that's across all socio-economic groups. I can't find any easy statistics about mean income and how that correlates in the US, but here's a 2016 NHS study in the UK that examines mean birth rate by socioeconomic status and country of origin that tl;dr's down to women in managerial and professional job categories delaying children until their 30s.. real edit: Anecdotally I've got a whole loving bevvy of friends - older millennials all - who are having their first kids in their mid-30s and even in one case early 40s. Lots of hand-wringing and angst about fetal health, lots of people anxiously waiting around on the results of tests for genetic abnormalities. This group is mostly people I know from grad school or who my wife works with (job that has everyone with post-secondary education and a pretty brutal career ladder), so again lots of bias towards that same group the NHS study highlights. But those are also the people I know who own houses. Because they can afford them. Because of their high paying jobs and, until very recently, status as DINKs. it's not PRIME childbearing age by any means, but there's a whole poo poo ton of people out there who have delayed kids, are realizing it's poo poo or get off the pot time, and how have the economic means as a result of the education and careers that they deferred children for to bid up those 3 bed 2 bath "starter homes." Cyrano4747 fucked around with this message at 18:31 on Jul 26, 2023 |
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Jul 26, 2023 18:26
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