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Moon Slayer posted:Broke: amphibious assault on Odessa launched from Sevastopol. Now let me tell you of the time when Italy sent torpedo boats across the Alps to fight Russians in Lake Ladoga
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Jul 17, 2023 21:43
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Not sure about the part with no tracks going from the EU to Ukraine at all as there are direct trains from kiew to vienna via hungary - but the capacity wount suffice for all that grain i guess. I still expect them to reach a new deal after a few days posturing.
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Jul 17, 2023 21:45
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Ripperljohn posted:Not sure about the part with no tracks going from the EU to Ukraine at all as there are direct trains from kiew to vienna via hungary - but the capacity wount suffice for all that grain i guess. Just have to unload the grain on Danube boats there, no problem!
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Jul 17, 2023 21:50
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IIRC there was some old Soviet gauge railroad in Romania they started renovating that led to a port, but then Russia immediately bombed the bridge near Odesa that would go through.
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Jul 17, 2023 22:00
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Can Russia even manage to interdict cargo ships in the Black Sea? I remember them putting everything they had into port well away from the warzone after the Moskva was
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Jul 17, 2023 22:03
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Turkiye
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Jul 17, 2023 22:04
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Pook Good Mook posted:Can Russia even manage to interdict cargo ships in the Black Sea? I remember them putting everything they had into port well away from the warzone after the Moskva was They don't need ships to interdict, they just need to float some mines in the sea lanes. Insurance isn't going to gently caress with that kind of risk. They'd have to use a ship or two to do that, but they wouldn't have to stick around.
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Jul 17, 2023 22:06
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Pook Good Mook posted:Can Russia even manage to interdict cargo ships in the Black Sea? I remember them putting everything they had into port well away from the warzone after the Moskva was It's not something that shipping companies or their insurance companies will want to find out. They want guarantees. The crews might also object.
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Jul 17, 2023 22:06
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Deteriorata posted:They don't need ships to interdict, they just need to float some mines in the sea lanes. Insurance isn't going to gently caress with that kind of risk. They'd have to use a ship or two to do that, but they wouldn't have to stick around. Would Russia be able to do that with Turkey protecting the shipping? I don't know much about how sea mines work but I always assumed they were anchored at a specific place and you had to be at that approximate location to place them
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Jul 17, 2023 22:13
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Can we assume that Russia has the capacity to deploy mines to the lane in question? Ukraine and NATO control the western Black Sea and mine insertions in any meaningful amount would probably get noticed. Anti-shipping missiles however have plenty of range.
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Jul 17, 2023 22:20
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Chalks posted:Would Russia be able to do that with Turkey protecting the shipping? I don't know much about how sea mines work but I always assumed they were anchored at a specific place and you had to be at that approximate location to place them There are anchored types, floaty types, magnetic or impact-fuzed types. All are hard to spot and even harder to avoid in a big floating grainbunker.
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Jul 17, 2023 22:21
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Nenonen posted:Theoretically Romania could escort the shipping, as it comes along their coast and as a NATO country Russia is unlikely to start engaging them on their own waters. But I have no idea if Romania desires that level of engagement and it would take very good security guarantees from both USA and Turkey for them to do that, as they have a crappy navy on their own. Joint Bulgo-Romanian naval escort: 2 lovely navies for the price of 1!
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Jul 17, 2023 22:22
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Nenonen posted:Can we assume that Russia has the capacity to deploy mines to the lane in question? Ukraine and NATO control the western Black Sea and mine insertions in any meaningful amount would probably get noticed. Anti-shipping missiles however have plenty of range. They could use their submarines to deploy them without much risk.
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Jul 17, 2023 22:23
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A single handy sized vessel is multiple large trains of grain. Rail isn’t a replacement for export by vessel even when everything is perfect on the rail.
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Jul 17, 2023 22:25
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Russia is capable of minelaying from both aircraft and the diesel-electric submarines they have in the black sea. If they are capable of bombing Snake island from an airplane, like they did last week, they are capable of mining the sealanes and making it impossible for commercial operators to get insurance.
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Jul 18, 2023 00:31
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Wouldn't mining the poo poo out of the Black Sea have other consequences? Is Russia really free to do as they want there?
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Jul 18, 2023 01:05
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WarpedLichen posted:Wouldn't mining the poo poo out of the Black Sea have other consequences? Is Russia really free to do as they want there? Unless someone wants to go to war with them, yes.
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Jul 18, 2023 01:18
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WarpedLichen posted:Wouldn't mining the poo poo out of the Black Sea have other consequences? Is Russia really free to do as they want there? But it will never come to that since: Nenonen posted:It's not something that shipping companies or their insurance companies will want to find out. They want guarantees.
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Jul 18, 2023 01:44
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Lord Stimperor posted:Compared to other famous terror incidents (I will call it that, even if it was an accidental firing), it did not kill that many people. But proportionally, it killed more Dutch than 9/11 did Americans. And not just primarily working adults, many children as well. I know of several people in my eider social network since then who lost acquaintances and / or relatives. it tends to go unremarked upon because the timeline of these things is often 10 or 20 or even 30 or more years, but deeply personal international grievances like this really do not get forgotten and the people who care the most often go half or more of their careers before they get a chance to properly stick it to whoever is responsible at a moment when it will most hurt. Part of the strong European response to Russia's second invasion traces back to the sheer number of countries with significant, heartfelt grievances against decades of cynical russian meddling and destructive foreign policy.
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Jul 18, 2023 02:32
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EasilyConfused posted:They could use their submarines to deploy them without much risk. Dunno, placing underwater microphones on the shipping lanes should be able to tell if there's something suspicious going on as I doubt that releasing mines is completely silent.
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Jul 18, 2023 03:28
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Pook Good Mook posted:Can Russia even manage to interdict cargo ships in the Black Sea? I remember them putting everything they had into port well away from the warzone after the Moskva was Haven't they been doing inspections on grain shipments this whole time? It comes up every once and again when they drag feet to hold up the process. Those might not be warships but a cargo vessel isn't going to fight one. WarpedLichen posted:Wouldn't mining the poo poo out of the Black Sea have other consequences? Is Russia really free to do as they want there? They've already done this, IIRC. I haven't heard much about it recently, but I believe I recall mentions earlier last year. Maybe just closer to Ukraine but not generally around the Black Sea. Ukraine also has used mines for defense I think?
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Jul 18, 2023 03:46
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ummel posted:Haven't they been doing inspections on grain shipments this whole time? It comes up every once and again when they drag feet to hold up the process. Those might not be warships but a cargo vessel isn't going to fight one. I found this from last June: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jul/11/sea-mines-ukraine-waters-russia-war-black-sea But I'm thinking that's just about mines planted to defend coastal waters breaking free from their mooring? I would imagine if you wanted to use mines to actively block sea lanes, that would require a whole lot more mines and more incidents with loose mines.
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Jul 18, 2023 04:07
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Herstory Begins Now posted:it tends to go unremarked upon because the timeline of these things is often 10 or 20 or even 30 or more years, but deeply personal international grievances like this really do not get forgotten and the people who care the most often go half or more of their careers before they get a chance to properly stick it to whoever is responsible at a moment when it will most hurt. This is right, there's still a lot of anger and resentment here over Salisbury and Amesbury. It's not as terrible as what happened to the victims of MH17 but the sheer gall of what the Russians did without concern for civilians rankled a lot of people here badly, and the meek response was considered woefully inadequate by many. Training Ukrainian troops and providing arms was something that did not require much contemplation, if any
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Jul 18, 2023 04:25
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Zedsdeadbaby posted:This is right, there's still a lot of anger and resentment here over Salisbury and Amesbury. It's not as terrible as what happened to the victims of MH17 but the sheer gall of what the Russians did without concern for civilians rankled a lot of people here badly, and the meek response was considered woefully inadequate by many. Training Ukrainian troops and providing arms was something that did not require much contemplation, if any While it's not even remotely on the same level as the assassinations in the UK or the downing of MH17 I wonder if part of the US government motivation to support Ukraine in this war is partly as revenge for loving with our elections in 2016. Biden was vice president at the time, and the response was generally considered to be pretty weak. I wonder if this was the perfect opportunity to get some payback.
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Jul 18, 2023 04:36
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Ynglaur posted:Unless someone wants to go to war with them, yes. I know this is the case, but it strikes me as insane that indiscriminately mining shipping channels, targeting commercial mariners, doesn't run afoul an IMO treaty. The SUA convention is pretty close, but not exactly on the nose.
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Jul 18, 2023 04:43
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Safety Dance posted:I know this is the case, but it strikes me as insane that indiscriminately mining shipping channels, targeting commercial mariners, doesn't run afoul an IMO treaty. The SUA convention is pretty close, but not exactly on the nose. Pretty sure war of conquest goes against the UN chapter, and that didn't stop Russia, nor have multiple treaties they signed (one by Putin!) recognizing Ukraine's borders. Treaties are not very relevant if someone with nukes chooses to ignore them. Though, to be fair, a case can be made that Russia is not actually a UN member, so maybe they shouldn't be bound by the chapter.
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Jul 18, 2023 04:51
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OddObserver posted:Treaties are not very relevant if someone with nukes chooses to ignore them. SOLAS is not most treaties. Generally non Solas vessels don’t get to engage in international voyages. Nukes don’t really have anything to do with it.
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Jul 18, 2023 05:10
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Does SOLAS even cover mines in maritime conflict?
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Jul 18, 2023 05:51
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Not specifically but there’s some stuff about military action in a economic exclusion zone is in there I think. I’d think UNCLOS might have some stuff on it also? Honestly it’s a thing I’ve never had to look up. But they’d be loving with shipping by vessels not UKR flagged so…
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Jul 18, 2023 05:59
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Charliegrs posted:While it's not even remotely on the same level as the assassinations in the UK or the downing of MH17 I wonder if part of the US government motivation to support Ukraine in this war is partly as revenge for loving with our elections in 2016. Biden was vice president at the time, and the response was generally considered to be pretty weak. I wonder if this was the perfect opportunity to get some payback. That's a bit different insofar as it's less personal, but yeah that exact kind of meddling and malicious interference is absolutely why US sentiment towards the Russian state did a 180 over the last decade.
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Jul 18, 2023 06:14
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It would be difficult for Russia to mine the shipping lanes since they are generally pretty deep. They could drop magnetic mines for them but they would no doubt hit a country not involved and/or a NATO country which would open a massive can of worms for them. Sea mines are generally used as a defensive weapon. The most likely weapon with be an anti-ship missile which has its own issues. If Turkey decides to say they are escorting the Ukrainian vessels it would again be too high of a risk for Russian to engage them with those as it would be far too easy to accidentally target a Turkish ship. That is if Turkey doesn’t have air support up for them. That is nothing to say the country chartering the vessel attacked using it as an excuse to get involved. Like someone else said at the end of the day Russian is going to bitch and moan for awhile and do nothing. There is zero upside to them going against it and huge potential to escalate the conflict by involving NATO directly.
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Jul 18, 2023 06:40
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Libluini posted:I had to re-write this post several times, because every time I got far too insulting and had to stop myself. I was looking at it from the perspective of US patrols of the South China Sea and the Gulf of Sidra (in the 80s). That is, US tendency to patrol in International Waters claimed by other countries. Which isn't to say the patrols/exercises are necessary or right in all cases, just where I was coming from. Thanks to the the thread I now know about the 1936 Montreux Convention and Türkiye's power over the strait, and presumably the US butting in would just piss off Türkiye anyway. So yeah, my original knee-jerk thought (send in the destroyers!) was dumb. I wasn't sure just how strong Türkiye's position is.
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Jul 18, 2023 07:13
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Anything that pisses off turkey is ok in my book. gently caress those assholes
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Jul 18, 2023 07:33
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funk_mata posted:Forgive and probate me if this is Clancy-chat, but with the expiration of the grain deal, what are the thread's thoughts on U.S. Navy escorts for grain ships? Is that a bridge wayyy too far? in what realpolitik universe are us nationals going to starve if global wheat prices increase? we are paying pennies more if they do. US costs in this war are general global economic uncertainty in a downward direction and maybe defense spending in excess of what we pay normally. MAYBE! some defense contractor's pie in the sky price for next generation technology is probably higher than whatever "we'll buy X quantity of boring-rear end artillery shells you've already known how to make since 1980" costs, so hell, maybe we _save_ money while ticking important "has domestic munitions industry" boxes yes, WW3 over grain prices is clancychat. America don't care about them unless most of the world is already nuclear ash and we're sending our remaining aircraft carriers to annex the surviving green space in new zealand. outside that, potential problems down the road in locales that are affected by grain prices are but a twinkle in the eye of our foreign policy elite
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Jul 18, 2023 10:01
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Coming soon to a discord near you: more leaked US military documents. https://www.nu.nl/tech/6272741/nederlander-ontving-door-tikfout-jarenlang-mails-van-amerikaans-leger.html TDDR: A dutch guy has been administrating the .ml domain for 10 years. Despite numerous warnings a lot of US military mail is still coming to this domain (.ml instead of .mil). The contract is now ending and soon the administration will fall back to the Mali government who have close ties with Russia. Pentagon spokesperson does say in the article that mails sent directly from .mil to .ml are be blocked with a warning to the sender so there is that at least.
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Jul 18, 2023 10:10
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Idk why you'd use US ships, Turkey did it last time and they've been if anything far more willing to piss off Russia recently. Surely the logic of the US not wanting to start a nuclear war over grain prices applies equally to Russia in that scenario.
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Jul 18, 2023 10:50
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Reminds me of someone I internet-knew back in the day who bought the domain donotreply.com and would get all sorts of sensitive info from people replying
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Jul 18, 2023 13:16
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Griefor posted:Coming soon to a discord near you: more leaked US military documents. Exactly how does a TLD administrator receive e-mails? Shouldn't emails bounce if they hit a non-existant domain name? Or did he set up a marines.ml domain and e-mail server?
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Jul 18, 2023 13:53
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Safety Dance posted:I know this is the case, but it strikes me as insane that indiscriminately mining shipping channels, targeting commercial mariners, doesn't run afoul an IMO treaty. The SUA convention is pretty close, but not exactly on the nose. Any political system's ultimate arbiter is the sword. So, too, with treaties. I don't think anyone is willing to enforce those treaties in the Black Sea for the cost--and risk--of war, but maybe I'm wrong. I do think it sets a very dangerous precedent. Would the West go to war if Russia started mining the artic? What if China started mining around Taiwan? The United States has been called an island nation with its own continent, and there is some truth to it. The US and many of its closest allies' prosperity and security are incredibly dependent on open sea-lanes. See also: Japan, Australia, the United Kingdom, Taiwan, South Korea (who might as well be an island, logistically-speaking). So lots of countries with large economies and large militaries care about open sea-lanes, but my guess is we let Russia be Russia in the Black Sea, at least for now. The Modern War Institute's podcast posted an interview with an Azovstal defender. Very interesting 30 minutes, part of a larger interview which has not been published in full. (My guess is that the Urban Warfare Center will publish the full version later.) A few things I found particularly interesting.
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Jul 18, 2023 13:54
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Fragrag posted:Exactly how does a TLD administrator receive e-mails? Shouldn't emails bounce if they hit a non-existant domain name? Or did he set up a marines.ml domain and e-mail server? Well, he runs the system that's supposed to answer who gets the marines.ml e-mails, so yes? Except he can make it answer all the unregistered ml names.
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Jul 18, 2023 14:04
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