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Justus
Apr 18, 2006

...

anonumos posted:

Nah man you forgot interest. Mortgage payment is closer to $1700. Gotta charge $2500 to make it worth the headache.

Loan amount $223,100
Total interest paid $321,311
Total cost of loan $544,411
Payoff date Jul 2053

Principal & interest $1,511
Property tax +151
Homeowner's insurance +66
PMI +0
HOA fees +0
Total monthly payment =$1,728

Add a few hundred for PMI since I put a down payment of 3% into the calculator.

you’ve about got the right idea of my rental market. I do plan on living in it myself though. I know, unbelievable. And in six months of looking, it was exactly the second place this small I saw for sale that wasn’t a crumbling condo with a broken elevator or a (also crumbling) house from the 20s still using an oil furnace.

the place is a little nicer than the townhome I’d been renting. my rent had been $1400 but only because of rent control. they’re charging new tenants $2000.

I guess I’m the weird one. I’m an engineer and COULD afford more house if I wanted…but I’m just a single guy without kids or pets, and I have fairly simple tastes. All my coworkers and family keep telling me I need to get the most amount of house I can afford for the investment, but from where I’m sitting, the only “investment” I really want out of ownership is not paying someone rent while keeping my rear end and my stuff dry and warm without a ton of hassle.

I figure I’ll just invest in index funds after I finish paying off the mortgage. That just seems way lower effort compared to real estate (even the one I’m living in), and like, I’m just a geek and I just wanna spend my time on earth geeking around in my shop (which is what my second bedroom is gonna be), not being a money pervert.

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Pittsburgh Fentanyl Cloud
Apr 7, 2003


Good news, I checked a random lovely rural Pennsylvanian town and everything desirable there is expensive



Just move to a low cost of living area! *


(* there are none left)

A Bad King
Jul 17, 2009


Suppose the oil man,
He comes to town.
And you don't lay money down.

Yet Mr. King,
He killed the thread
The other day.
Well I wonder.
Who's gonna go to Hell?
South Central Illinois is affordable!

Lmao

Boot and Rally
Apr 21, 2006

8===D
Nap Ghost

A Bad King posted:

South Central Illinois is affordable!

Lmao

Don't tell people about Springfield.

Justus
Apr 18, 2006

...
There are fairly reasonable 1000 sq Ft places in my old stomping grounds of Oklahoma City for around $160k-ish, and that’s fine, as long as you don’t need a good paying job that isn’t in oil/gas. or want to send children to a reasonably funded school that isn’t a private Christian school. or mind regular softball size hail with all the damage and sky high insurance premiums that come with it. or ever wanna do anything interesting not in a suburban sprawl. or…

The Oldest Man
Jul 28, 2003

Price cut on the 1000sqft free standing box with no yard garage or roof deck zero lot lined in the middle of a concrete slab with two other houses between it and the street and no alley

Weird

Rocko Bonaparte
Mar 12, 2002

Every day is Friday!
It looks like that data about AirBnB revenues in various metro areas being down upwards of 40% is not being substantiated by anybody else:

https://skift.com/2023/07/15/behind-the-source-of-the-viral-airbnb-collapse-data/

quote:

This is a story about how questionable data about plunging Airbnb host revenue took on a life of its own, leading to a slew of news articles and social media posts, investor concerns, and one CNBC interview.

Nick Gerli, the CEO of Reventure Consulting, tweeted June 27 about the alleged “Airbnb Revenue Collapse,” citing AllTheRooms as the “source” of his data. It showed alarming drops in revenue per available listing in May in several metro areas, including 47.6% in the Sevierville, Tennessee, 47.2% in Phoenix, and 46.1% in Austin, Texas.

The tweet shook the short-term rental industry and attracted more than 35 million views on Twitter alone.

The chart Gerli posted and subsequent statements he made claimed that AllTheRooms was the “source” of the data. “The data used in this Tweet thread came from AllTheRooms,” Gerli tweeted.

However, Gerli told Skift in an email Saturday that he took county data that AllTheRooms sent him, and went a step further on his own.

“AllTheRooms sent me a spreadsheet with revenue, listing, and RevPAL data for every county in America going back to 2015,” Gerli said. “I then grouped the counties into metro areas, and created the table you saw in the Tweet to show the rolling YoY change in RevPAL.”

AllTheRooms, meanwhile, has not spoken publicly about the data and has not engaged with journalists and others seeking to confirm or deny the data.

AllTheRooms CEO Joseph DiTomaso did not respond to a Skift email seeking comment.

“Our dataset shows declines in many of the markets that were cited in the original tweet,” said Melanie Brown, executive director of data insights at Key Data. “However, the declines are not nearly as dramatic as what was shown.”

Brown added that she made presentations about short-term rental market trends to three investor groups last week, “and they’ve all asked about the AllTheRooms data.”

Other analysis indicates a more modest decline in Airbnb host revenue. “U.S. RevPAR fell 3.3% to $89 in the first half of the year, ADR was down 2.3% to $260, while occupancy was down a single percentage point at 34%,” said a Key Data blog post July 10.

While Gerli found RevPal down 47.2% year-over year in May in the Phoenix metro area, STR Insights found it to have dipped just 2.5%. The same pattern was true for Myrtle Beach, South Carolina — 45.1% for Reventure versus 4.8% for STR Insights.

While Gerli had RevPAL in the New Orleans metro area down 37.1%, AirDNA pegged the decline at 1.2%.

“Let’s get some facts straight,” tweeted Jamie Lane, chief economist at AirDNA regarding Gerli’s estimates. “There is not a collapse in RevPAL happening. Is it down in 2023? YES. Is it down 40%? NO. I’ve pulled the numbers from @airdna‘s dataset mirroring the analysis done by @nickgerli1. What do we find? The average market listed is seeing RevPAL decrease of -3.6%, not -40.3%.”

The controversy prompted Airbnb to issue a statement: “The data is not consistent with our own data. As we said during our Q1 earnings, more guests are traveling on Airbnb than ever before, with Nights and Experiences Booked growing 19% in Q1 2023 compared to a year ago.”

Many misinterpreted Gerli’s tweet as saying that Airbnb was collapsing, but instead he was pointing to — erroneously, as it turns out — a massive drop in revenue for some hosts, not necessarily for Airbnb as a company.

AllTheRooms, which was founded as a vacation rental comparison shopping site a decade ago, emerges from this episode looking tarnished in part because of its total silence.

“As of today AllTheRooms has not gotten back to me regarding my questions about the big differences between their data and AirDNA’s,” Gerli said Saturday. “In the meantime, I’ve reached out to Airbnb several times and requested they provide their own data to settle the difference. And have yet to hear back from them.”


There are few standards for how the various data vendors in the short-term rental space scrape, import, or calculate their metrics. One vendor notes, for example, that its system may view unavailable nights as being booked stays.

For his part, Gerli has said that he’s reviewing the discrepancies in the various vendors’ data, and may publish more data soon. He hasn’t retracted his tweet.

Asked if he made mistakes in taking AllTheRooms county data and analyzing it to come up with RevPal drops in metropolitan areas, Gerli said: “I didn’t err. Triple-checked my work.”


So the original message was fired off from God-knows-what data, but fancy that Gerli isn't just sharing the stuff himself. I suppose he could be under some embargo/NDA/whatever to share the original data, or he's just covering himself by not showing what he did. AllTheRooms is being especially quiet though. But other sources are not agreeing with the idea of a massive collapse in AirBnB revenues.

aw frig aw dang it
Jun 1, 2018


where did you guys get so much money + give me some money

19 o'clock
Sep 9, 2004

Excelsior!!!

aw frig aw dang it posted:

where did you guys get so much money + give me some money

Vomik
Jul 29, 2003

This post is dedicated to the brave Mujahideen fighters of Afghanistan

anonumos posted:

Nah man you forgot interest. Mortgage payment is closer to $1700. Gotta charge $2500 to make it worth the headache.

Loan amount $223,100
Total interest paid $321,311
Total cost of loan $544,411
Payoff date Jul 2053

Principal & interest $1,511
Property tax +151
Homeowner's insurance +66
PMI +0
HOA fees +0
Total monthly payment =$1,728

Add a few hundred for PMI since I put a down payment of 3% into the calculator.

eh - it’s honestly more predatory - typically rent only dwarfs the mortgage payment for the poorest people because they have no cash and get taken advantage of

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005



#sigmamale #redpill #MenLivesMatter

RadiRoot
Feb 3, 2007

cool av posted:

just hope it sucks just the right amount that you want it but nobody else does

i think it just might... just signed off on the initial offer so it's in the sellers court now. :sweatdrop: i didnt waive inspection though.

i checked out another house today that was flipped in a rush. the paint barely had one coat on in places and the basement was a mess.

anonumos
Jul 14, 2005

Fuck it.

Vomik posted:

eh - it’s honestly more predatory - typically rent only dwarfs the mortgage payment for the poorest people because they have no cash and get taken advantage of

It is more predatory. We've seen things published BY landlords crowing about leverage themselves to the gills to amass rental portfolios. They only make it work because of property value, criminal rent, and minimal upkeep.

The problem I keep running into is that I'm seeing more of this bagholder-trap media than I did between 2008 and 2022. Last year the second tier advertising media fire hose began churning out rental empire fluff pieces again. Making me very uneasy, but maybe this time it's different.

:shrug:

i say swears online posted:



#sigmamale #redpill #MenLivesMatter

I remember looking into MTGOW as a social outlet during my divorce, but...eww. Nope out of their online communities the day I joined them. Disgusting places. Beta by their own definitions. They should be ashamed to look grandma in the eye.

Ice Phisherman
Apr 12, 2007

Swimming upstream
into the sunset



anonumos posted:

I remember looking into MTGOW as a social outlet during my divorce, but...eww. Nope out of their online communities the day I joined them. Disgusting places. Beta by their own definitions. They should be ashamed to look grandma in the eye.

I remember stumbling across an Air Force recruiter who tried to get me into MGTOW years ago. Any man whose heart isn't filled with hate should nope the gently caress away immediately.

RadiRoot
Feb 3, 2007
didnt get the house. i went 20% over asking price too. probably should've waved the loving inspection.

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

never waive the loving inspection

RadiRoot
Feb 3, 2007
maybe im suppose to buy a shithole and pay to get it somewhat renovated?

RadiRoot has issued a correction as of 02:03 on Jul 18, 2023

Nothus
Feb 22, 2001

Buglord

RadiRoot posted:

didnt get the house. i went 20% over asking price too. probably should've waved the loving inspection.

Owned. (don't waive the inspection)

A Bad King
Jul 17, 2009


Suppose the oil man,
He comes to town.
And you don't lay money down.

Yet Mr. King,
He killed the thread
The other day.
Well I wonder.
Who's gonna go to Hell?

RadiRoot posted:

maybe im suppose to buy a shithole and pay to get it somewhat renovated?

a structurally unsound shithole is a deathbed. good luck, goon.

does your realtor have private listings from their broker firm? sometimes that's a good thing to look into. we found ours through an unlisted private sale through the brokers' shared firm. the owners were planning to go public within a month, we gave them an easy way to sell before having to do the whole rigamarole of preparing the home for showings etc.

Bar Ran Dun
Jan 22, 2006




i say swears online posted:

never waive the loving inspection

This miss getting the house over waiving the inspection.

RadiRoot
Feb 3, 2007

A Bad King posted:

a structurally unsound shithole is a deathbed. good luck, goon.

does your realtor have private listings from their broker firm? sometimes that's a good thing to look into. we found ours through an unlisted private sale through the brokers' shared firm. the owners were planning to go public within a month, we gave them an easy way to sell before having to do the whole rigamarole of preparing the home for showings etc.

ill ask but i doubt it.

sonatinas
Apr 15, 2003

Seattle Karate Vs. L.A. Karate

i say swears online posted:

never waive the loving inspection

Ornery and Hornery
Oct 22, 2020

A Bad King posted:

a structurally unsound shithole is a deathbed. good luck, goon.

does your realtor have private listings from their broker firm? sometimes that's a good thing to look into. we found ours through an unlisted private sale through the brokers' shared firm. the owners were planning to go public within a month, we gave them an easy way to sell before having to do the whole rigamarole of preparing the home for showings etc.

dang that seems like a good move

Pittsburgh Fentanyl Cloud
Apr 7, 2003


i say swears online posted:

never waive the loving inspection

I had an inspection and I have bats in my attic everyone missed

I can hear them moving around in the ceiling above my desk at dusk. oh no!

Pittsburgh Fentanyl Cloud
Apr 7, 2003


RadiRoot posted:

maybe im suppose to buy a shithole and pay to get it somewhat renovated?

The old advice for people without a lot of money to "buy a fixer-upper and work on it" no longer applies, because A> the fixer-uppers are still $$$$$$$$$$$ in any desirable market, and B> It's impossible to get contractors nowadays as has been recounted in this thread, materials costs are through the roof, and most homeowners don't have the competency necessary to do their own work.

spacemang_spliff
Nov 29, 2014

wide pickle

i say swears online posted:

never waive the loving inspection

Grey Fox
Jan 5, 2004

Pittsburgh Fentanyl Cloud posted:

I had an inspection and I have bats in my attic everyone missed

I can hear them moving around in the ceiling above my desk at dusk. oh no!
congratulations on your new rats with bonus wings

A Bad King
Jul 17, 2009


Suppose the oil man,
He comes to town.
And you don't lay money down.

Yet Mr. King,
He killed the thread
The other day.
Well I wonder.
Who's gonna go to Hell?

Ornery and Hornery posted:

dang that seems like a good move

You need to spend about two years searching with the same realtor so they break.

Paradoxish
Dec 19, 2003

Will you stop going crazy in there?

Pittsburgh Fentanyl Cloud posted:

The old advice for people without a lot of money to "buy a fixer-upper and work on it" no longer applies, because A> the fixer-uppers are still $$$$$$$$$$$ in any desirable market, and B> It's impossible to get contractors nowadays as has been recounted in this thread, materials costs are through the roof, and most homeowners don't have the competency necessary to do their own work.

You'd still need an inspection even if your intent was to buy a fixer-upper, though. It's too risky with potentially major repairs that would be out of reach for even very skilled do-it-yourselfers. You need to know that the foundation and structure are sound, at a minimum.

What's funny about a lot of the lovely flips on the market is that most of those improvements would be completely fine (great, even!) as do-it-yourself homeowner projects. Like the whole point of something like vinyl plank flooring is that it is brain dead simple to install, but you've got "investors" spending $1000 on this cheap-rear end flooring and relisting for $50k above purchase.

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

Paradoxish posted:

You'd still need an inspection even if your intent was to buy a fixer-upper, though. It's too risky with potentially major repairs that would be out of reach for even very skilled do-it-yourselfers. You need to know that the foundation and structure are sound, at a minimum.


Inspections are for bats, idiot

RadiRoot
Feb 3, 2007
blah i dont know wtf im rambling about

but yeah im not serious about waiving it. im not desperate yet...

RadiRoot has issued a correction as of 15:23 on Jul 18, 2023

Paradoxish
Dec 19, 2003

Will you stop going crazy in there?
There is never a time where having lots of money is not the answer, except for when just borrowing lots of money (that you won't have to ever pay back) is the answer.

biceps crimes
Apr 12, 2008


the trick is to have so much money that it’s not a problem if the 150k improvement sitting on the 800k lot is falling apart. you can spend your way through it or just remodel it or bulldoze and rebuild. or sit on it, eventually bulldoze it and sell it for profit because the land value has grown so much that it surpasses its previous value with a house sitting on it. people don’t talk about this trick enough when it comes to buying a home

Leroy Diplowski
Aug 25, 2005

The Candyman Can :science:

Visit My Candy Shop

And SA Mart Thread

Justus posted:

There are fairly reasonable 1000 sq Ft places in my old stomping grounds of Oklahoma City for around $160k-ish, and that’s fine, as long as you don’t need a good paying job that isn’t in oil/gas. or want to send children to a reasonably funded school that isn’t a private Christian school. or mind regular softball size hail with all the damage and sky high insurance premiums that come with it. or ever wanna do anything interesting not in a suburban sprawl. or…

A good buddy of mine who had been clean for years moved to OkC because he was being gifted a cheap house. He relapsed almost immediately and didn't survive the year. Seems like a lovely place.

i am harry
Oct 14, 2003

Pittsburgh Fentanyl Cloud posted:

I had an inspection and I have bats in my attic everyone missed

I can hear them moving around in the ceiling above my desk at dusk. oh no!

great! love bats look at all they’ve done for us

ProperGanderPusher
Jan 13, 2012




You literally have to waive inspection to have a single chance in hell in some of the white hot markets. I don’t know anyone who bought in coastal California in the last 15 years who wasn’t forced to do it.

aw frig aw dang it
Jun 1, 2018


ProperGanderPusher posted:

You literally have to waive inspection to have a single chance in hell in some of the white hot markets. I don’t know anyone who bought in coastal California in the last 15 years who wasn’t forced to do it.

did they get free bats tho?

The Oldest Man
Jul 28, 2003

Paradoxish posted:

You'd still need an inspection even if your intent was to buy a fixer-upper, though. It's too risky with potentially major repairs that would be out of reach for even very skilled do-it-yourselfers. You need to know that the foundation and structure are sound, at a minimum.

Probably worth mentioning that an inspection reduces the likelihood of getting hosed on this only somewhat and flippers don't need to disclose poo poo because they only own the house for as long as it takes to slap a new coat of paint and some marble counters on it

palindrome
Feb 3, 2020

As I understand it there's a difference between having an inspection contingency in your offer, and hiring your own inspector to take a look before you offer.

Having the inspection contingency means you can walk away from the offer if the inspection turns up something you aren't satisfied with as a prospective buyer. In coastal California, I imagine buyers having their own private inspections done? Do sellers let inspectors poke around without an offer?

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ProperGanderPusher
Jan 13, 2012




aw frig aw dang it posted:

did they get free bats tho?

Nah, my one buddy just got plain old rats in the crawl space like a chump.

e: He couldn’t even hire his own guy. Houses at that time sold so fast he had to slam down a 50 percent down payment no questions asked and was drat lucky nobody with 100% cash swooped in to do it first.

ProperGanderPusher has issued a correction as of 16:59 on Jul 18, 2023

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