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the_steve posted:The million dollar question is: Will the general populace actually realize that, or is it going to be a case of "If their stock is up, then why do I keep insisting they went Woke and subsequently Broke?", where everyone Another question is whether the stock price is staying inflated for other reasons even though the boycott is having some effect. I saw this article and gives some other reasons. quote:Bud Light sales are still falling, as the impact of a boycott against the beer continues to stick. But Morgan Stanley analysts on Thursday said that impact was already reflected into shares of its parent company, Anheuser-Busch InBev, and that AB-InBev’s global footprint and the falling costs of beer ingredients would help sales and margins up ahead even if struggles in the U.S. spill over into next year. Should the stock price actually be doing better now in investors minds? It seems like the impact is felt but is being mitigated by outside circumstances like lowering beer ingredients cost. quote:Still, the Morgan Stanley analysts emphasized Anheuser-Busch’s worldwide reach, and said that even a 13.5% drop in U.S. yearly sales — broadly, where things stand in the U.S. now — would only mean a 4% drop for the company’s sales overall. And they said double-digit growth expected elsewhere, in regions like South America and the Asia-Pacific, would drive organic sales growth of 6% for the company overall in its fiscal 2023. They also said a “wind-back” on commodity costs and sales incentives to U.S. beer sellers would help margins up ahead. It seems like the worldwide footprint of the company is helping to reduce the effect of the boycott in the U.S. I really wish I could get statistics on who drinks their beer because there's no way InBev doesn't have it. This boycott concerns me because it really does seem to be effective but various other factors have allowed InBev to weather it.
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Jul 21, 2023 14:09
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I think I literally just stole this from lald but it's good and funny if conservatives find out that they can't consume according to their ethics under capitalism because five companies own all of the things
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Jul 21, 2023 15:28
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gurragadon posted:Another question is whether the stock price is staying inflated for other reasons even though the boycott is having some effect. I saw this article and gives some other reasons. ABInBev still owns a bunch of beers in sort of similar/slightly off demographics like Busch/Labatt's/Landshark/Michelob/Rolling Rock in one bucket, Bohemia/Corona/Estrella/Modelo/Pacifico/Presidente in another, Beck's/Stella/etc. in another, and even BluePoint/Goose Island etc. in the craft beer market and Bon & Viv in the seltzer category. I know my father who is stuck in Florida says that the people he knows through golf/softball are pretty evenly split between not caring/caring about the Bud Light thing, and of those that care a lot of them have switched to Corona or Michelob because as it turns out 80% of the beers places serve in their area are owned by InBev. Exactly one of them actually took the time to look up their portfolio to avoid drinking any of their beers and became a vocal Miller Lite fan. My dad took pleasure in sending him MillerCoors pride month posts. As enormous as "Bud Light" is as a product in the United States, it's still a single digit percentage of ABInBev's total United States sales, which in turn is only a third of InBev's global sales. I am sure the boycott is hurting their bottom line on some level and it's a big dollar figure in "lost sales", but this is why it doesn't seem to be affecting the stock.
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Jul 21, 2023 16:22
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Harold Fjord posted:I think I literally just stole this from lald but it's good and funny if conservatives find out that they can't consume according to their ethics under capitalism because five companies own all of the things I mean I think a lot of them realize that, it's just that any time one of these things happens they get big mad on social media and maybe try a boycott, but at the end of the day once the smoke clears, I think most of them don't stick with it. No one has ever folded for lack of support from conservatives (except for conservative branded companies, which lol), and once the object permanence fades they'll be back to not giving a poo poo about Bud Light either.
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Jul 21, 2023 16:22
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:didn't see this posted yet This strikes me as so similar to Democrats trying to get Trump convicted so he can't run in 2024. If Trump gets convicted, he gets replaced on the ticket with someone who will do exactly the same horrible policies, but who has a much better chance of winning than Trump does. If Grassley proves Biden is corrupt, the party will replace him on the ticket with someone who isn't historically unpopular.
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Jul 21, 2023 16:34
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There's nothing saying Trump can't run if he gets convicted.
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Jul 21, 2023 16:37
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Crows Turn Off posted:There's nothing saying Trump can't run if he gets convicted. Those would be the greatest presidential debates of all time.
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Jul 21, 2023 16:40
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PostNouveau posted:This strikes me as so similar to Democrats trying to get Trump convicted so he can't run in 2024. If Trump gets convicted, he gets replaced on the ticket with someone who will do exactly the same horrible policies, but who has a much better chance of winning than Trump does. If Grassley proves Biden is corrupt, the party will replace him on the ticket with someone who isn't historically unpopular. Nobody on the Republican bench has a better shot of winning than Trump. And it doesn't matter how many crimes he does or admits to, because as far as his base is concerned, all he's doing is triggering the libs and that's a win for them.
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Jul 21, 2023 16:40
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PostNouveau posted:Those would be the greatest presidential debates of all time. As if Trump would show up to any even if he weren't in jail.
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Jul 21, 2023 16:45
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PostNouveau posted:This strikes me as so similar to Democrats trying to get Trump convicted so he can't run in 2024. If Trump gets convicted, he gets replaced on the ticket with someone who will do exactly the same horrible policies, but who has a much better chance of winning than Trump does. If Grassley proves Biden is corrupt, the party will replace him on the ticket with someone who isn't historically unpopular. I don't think having a sitting president from your party go down for corruption would necessarily be a win for the Dems. If anything, it feels like Biden going down for corruption would just put everyone in a bad spot. It's not like there's a "Never Biden" wing of the Dems that would come out of that kind of scandal clean. Everyone from Harris to Buttigieg to Bernie would spend half their campaign answering questions about the Biden corruption scandal. I'm not saying it's impossible for them to win but it feels like Biden going down would present obvious problems for any Dem trying to get his job.
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Jul 21, 2023 16:54
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Edge & Christian posted:Bud/Bud Light is effectively their market leader in that particular tranche of beer drinking (i.e. versus Miller, Coors, etc.) The article I posted earlier seems to agree with you that at least part of the reason the boycott isn't hurting the company as much is because InBev is a global company. I think it's important to consider other things besides stock price in determining the boycott's impact though. As the article showed, the stock could be propped up by lowering ingredient prices and a diversified product portfolio. The social impacts aren't felt only in the stock price, and it seems like the right wingers are going to keep pushing the anti-trans lies on companies. A 13.5% drop in US sales from the article is huge, and I think the whole reason InBev bought Anheuser Busch in 2008 was to expand is business in the United States. It does seem to show that a consumer boycott couldn't take down a global company unless it was a global boycott and good luck with that ever happening.
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Jul 21, 2023 16:57
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PostNouveau posted:This strikes me as so similar to Democrats trying to get Trump convicted so he can't run in 2024. If Trump gets convicted, he gets replaced on the ticket with someone who will do exactly the same horrible policies, but who has a much better chance of winning than Trump does. If Grassley proves Biden is corrupt, the party will replace him on the ticket with someone who isn't historically unpopular. There is no one on planet earth who would pursue exactly the same policy as Trump because a non trivial portion of his policy is dumb poo poo he thought up on the spot.
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Jul 21, 2023 17:14
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Blue Footed Booby posted:There is no one on planet earth who would pursue exactly the same policy as Trump because a non trivial portion of his policy is dumb poo poo he thought up on the spot. Yeah, that's true. Honestly, a replacement might be worse because you won't get the random checks on the worst of Republicanism like Trump refusing to listen to war-mongers braying for blood at all times.
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Jul 21, 2023 17:16
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PostNouveau posted:Yeah, that's true. Honestly, a replacement might be worse because you won't get the random checks on the worst of Republicanism like Trump refusing to listen to war-mongers braying for blood at all times. This has been the fear with DeSantis in large part; a Trump that knows not to say some things out loud. Though the latter part is in question now. It was also once upon a time the fear with Pence.
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Jul 21, 2023 17:23
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PostNouveau posted:Yeah, that's true. Honestly, a replacement might be worse because you won't get the random checks on the worst of Republicanism like Trump refusing to listen to war-mongers braying for blood at all times. Or it could go the other way, going full isolationist to an extent that destabilizes Europe. Or it could be a lateral move that's a different flavor of stupid, but just as dumb. I think part of the problem here is that nobody is really 100% sure which of Trump's irrational positions are why the base likes him, and which are accepted because they like him. It's basically a political random number generator where anything can happen and the only guarantee is that it'll suck rear end.
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Jul 21, 2023 17:29
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https://twitter.com/glennbeck/status/1682413695513526272?s=20 I tried finding a more reliable source for this, but this was the only one I could find, so take it with a reasonable amount of salt. Allegedly, whistleblowers at Fox News have come out and said that Fox matches employee donations to groups like The Satanic Temple and Planned Parenthood. Obviously, the average Fox News watcher is not happy about that, if true.
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Jul 21, 2023 18:03
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PostNouveau posted:Yeah, that's true. Honestly, a replacement might be worse because you won't get the random checks on the worst of Republicanism like Trump refusing to listen to war-mongers braying for blood at all times. Folks were having some random dumbass “rally” and waving Trump 2024 flags a block away from my work yesterday. No one else can win the nomination while he’s alive.
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Jul 21, 2023 18:12
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PostNouveau posted:This strikes me as so similar to Democrats trying to get Trump convicted so he can't run in 2024. If Trump gets convicted, he gets replaced on the ticket with someone who will do exactly the same horrible policies, but who has a much better chance of winning than Trump does. If Grassley proves Biden is corrupt, the party will replace him on the ticket with someone who isn't historically unpopular. If I'm the Democrats I'd rather run Biden as-is than: 1. Deal with corruption scandal 2. Deal with contentious primary/behind-the-scenes jostling for nomination 3. Run candidate without incumbent advantage, who still is going to get smeared for being in the party of the corrupt President.
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Jul 21, 2023 18:24
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the_steve posted:https://twitter.com/glennbeck/status/1682413695513526272?s=20 Even if this is true, the monumental harm they have done to the media landscape in the US would far outweigh any donations they may or may not be making to liberal groups.
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Jul 21, 2023 18:51
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Professor Beetus posted:Even if this is true, the monumental harm they have done to the media landscape in the US would far outweigh any donations they may or may not be making to liberal groups. No doubt. Believe me, I'm not trying to hand it to 'em. I just like watching poo poo get stirred up.
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Jul 21, 2023 18:52
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PostNouveau posted:Yeah, that's true. Honestly, a replacement might be worse because you won't get the random checks on the worst of Republicanism like Trump refusing to listen to war-mongers braying for blood at all times. A replacement MIGHT be worse, but we know Trump did 2 things: 1. was minutes away from war with Iran in the tit-for-tat strikes when he killed their general 2. Tried to personally lead a coup to make himself dictator On top of that, knowing that Trump is a completely loose cannon, his whining about leaving NATO is almost as much of a national security risk as his literal coup attempt. It's always possible some other candidate could somehow be worse, but we know Trump is already an existential threat to the US. The guy needs to be behind bars and disqualified permanently from office, anything less than that is hoping for the best while leaving the gate to the lion enclosure open.
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Jul 21, 2023 18:53
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Yes I’ll take my chances on anyone else other than Trump. I’m not sure he ever leaves office again if he gets it back. He’s seen what will happen once he does (which to be clear is entirely his own fault for committing so many felonies.)
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Jul 21, 2023 19:17
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When Trump shuffles off this mortal coil -- whenever that occurs however many years from now -- the modern republican party will tear itself apart in conspiracy theories blaming each other for his death. I would be very surprised if they survive as a coherent entity past that point.
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Jul 21, 2023 19:30
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the_steve posted:https://twitter.com/glennbeck/status/1682413695513526272?s=20 I think the story here is that there are people are Fox who actively hate Fox's ideology, not that they have a bland corporate matching program
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Jul 21, 2023 19:36
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USCE Summer: The Way of the Woke
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Jul 21, 2023 19:38
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Professor Beetus posted:Even if this is true, the monumental harm they have done to the media landscape in the US would far outweigh any donations they may or may not be making to liberal groups. You can bet that some "undesirables" have always worked at Fox.
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Jul 21, 2023 19:42
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the_steve posted:https://twitter.com/glennbeck/status/1682413695513526272?s=20 To me, it looks more like Glenn Beck still having an axe to grind over being "transitioned out" of having a job at Fox News. Though we also can't forget that Glenn owns a direct competitor to Fox, and pretty much has to poach their viewers since it's not like he can expand his audience any. What's actually going on here is that Fox contracts out to an outside company to handle the logistics of the donation-matching. Fox doesn't directly see what people are donating to at all, they just hand the money to this other company and that other company takes care of how much needs to be sent to which charities. This other company has their own list of approved charities that they curate, and it's extremely broad since this is just a regular company and not a dedicated far-right company. They almost certainly offer the option for their customers to go through the list and indicate any charities they don't want to provide matching for, but some poor HR middle manager at Fox didn't think to do that. So the list presented to employees was the basic default list of charities, and someone went searching through that list and found a few that were ideologically unacceptable. There's no evidence that any donations have actually gone to those companies, it's just carelessness when setting up the benefits system. Main Paineframe fucked around with this message at 19:46 on Jul 21, 2023 |
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Jul 21, 2023 19:44
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:When Trump shuffles off this mortal coil -- whenever that occurs however many years from now -- the modern republican party will tear itself apart in conspiracy theories blaming each other for his death. I would be very surprised if they survive as a coherent entity past that point. Nah, they'll just blame Hillary.
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Jul 21, 2023 19:44
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:When Trump shuffles off this mortal coil -- whenever that occurs however many years from now -- the modern republican party will tear itself apart in conspiracy theories blaming each other for his death. I would be very surprised if they survive as a coherent entity past that point. I'm sure they'll reform into a viable political entity without Trump when he drops dead, but all the same it's not like there's someone lined up to do what he did. Who are they going to bring out that does all of what Trump does but is more popular than the cult leader who brought in loads of new voters in addition to perennial Republicans to his personal banner last time, and casually slaps other factions of the party into following his lead? Look at DeSantis now. Is it gonna be Cruz? Christie? Will the Jeb rise once more? And the really Trumpy idiots don't have his existing fame, his ability to work the crowd, or the lack of political record Trump 2016 did. Lots of right-wingers aspire to be the next king but do any have what it takes to keep that whole coalition - and they need his whole coalition - together? In 2016 it was still defensible to believe that that gosh Trump is a weak joke candidate so let's watch the train wreck, but after him winning the election specifically as an outsider media personality , then seven years of him dominating the party, steering it to his whims, and building the openly fascist movement wing of the party so far, it's time to let it go. As for the idea that if Trump hadn't been there there the legendary competent fascist would have done way more damage than he did, that just sounds like the emerging real world version of the "they rehabilitated Bush and they're gonna rehabilitate Trump" line we heard for years. But unlike the zinger about the liberal media, the real world version rehabilitation of Bush wasn't that CNN article about him taking up painting or Michelle Obama talking with him or whatever. It was eight years of "Obama's basically the same so it's like he got a third term anyway" while the memories faded of just how hosed up the Bush years were even from an Obama-critical perspective. But Trump is still extremely online post-presidency, and his followers and movement haven't gone into the woods at all like Bush's particular nest of neocons and outwardly-polite religious nuts did for a bit after Iraq went south and the economy poo poo the bed. Since gaslighting people into saying Biden is basically identical while counting on fading memories of what the Trump presidency really was like falls flat in light of that, its counterpart seemingly has to be "Liberals are so FIXATED on Trump, can't you see his incompetence was the only thing keeping the real fascists down?"
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Jul 21, 2023 19:49
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Main Paineframe posted:To me, it looks more like Glenn Beck still having an axe to grind over being "transitioned out" of having a job at Fox News. Though we also can't forget that Glenn owns a direct competitor to Fox, and pretty much has to poach their viewers since it's not like he can expand his audience any. Yeah, that all makes sense and all. But you know the old adage; If you're explaining, you're losing. It's alot easier (and more sensible, if you're someone like Glenn who, as you said, has a vested interest in taking Fox down a peg or two) to just scream "Went woke now broke!" , and more entertaining to watch people base their hot takes off of that thought process. Hieronymous Alloy posted:When Trump shuffles off this mortal coil -- whenever that occurs however many years from now -- the modern republican party will tear itself apart in conspiracy theories blaming each other for his death. I would be very surprised if they survive as a coherent entity past that point. There will be a number of years where you're going to see the current top-tier of republicans arguing over who the inheritor of Trump's will truly was, once he's dead and no longer able to continue to throw wrenches into the works by opening his mouth. Plenty of people will be vowing to continue his legacy by doing the things he was totally in favor of doing (which just happen to coincide with what they were planning on wanting to do anyways) and that's why you should vote for them and not the false prophets claiming to be the real Trumpists. Meanwhile, given enough time, you'll have pundits and politicians rehabilitating Trump's image in order to try to upscale the threat of whoever the cream of the republican crop is at that point. "Sure, Trump may have been very outspoken, but he wasn't as bad as Hypothetical Future candidate is now!"
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Jul 21, 2023 20:01
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the_steve posted:There will be a number of years where you're going to see the current top-tier of republicans arguing over who the inheritor of Trump's will truly was, once he's dead and no longer able to continue to throw wrenches into the works by opening his mouth. We will see a Sunni-Shia esque split over whether the inheritors of the prophet's authority are his family or his closest collaborators.
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Jul 21, 2023 20:20
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Presidents keep getting rehabilitated because things keep getting worse.
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Jul 21, 2023 20:25
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A Hogan/Cheney ticket coupled with a Cornel West Green party run doesn't look as likely to cost Joe the presidency even though a Manchin/Huntsman might cost Joe the electoral college. https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna94377&ved=2ahUKEwi854LA3KCAAxVFiO4BHXcwB9AQ0PADKAB6BAgSEAE&usg=AOvVaw362IyOQhRlx2hcoJeNWujG
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Jul 21, 2023 22:20
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At this point it feels like the Republican party is held together by duct tape and chewing gum They've quadrupled-down on their "culture war" to the point that they might as well be speaking in tongues to the average voter Their voters have only gotten more extreme and more crazy, there aren't as many younger conservatives, and the ones who do exist are just IRL 4chan trolls They have no serious policies, and the media's decades-long campaign of "both sides are just as bad" has reached the point of diminishing returns because every day another stupid and/or evil thing comes out of their party There has to be a point of collapse here, and I feel that they are about to reach it
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Jul 21, 2023 22:41
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Trazz posted:At this point it feels like the Republican party is held together by duct tape and chewing gum I don't think the party understands that the diehard GOP base that eats up the STOP WOKE poo poo is a very small group and doesn't represent any kind of actual electorate.
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Jul 21, 2023 22:47
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It would be pretty nice if Joe Manchin returned to his home planet
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Jul 21, 2023 22:54
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FlamingLiberal posted:I'm pretty convinced that the very online culture war poo poo that they started last year cost them the Senate in 2022. The metrics going in were pretty favorable for them. I see it a little different: the party knows full well their culture war stuff is broadly unpopular, but they can't risk their own base rebelling, and so instead of pivoting to something more popular with non-insane wackadoos they're trying to stop the rest of us from voting at all.
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Jul 21, 2023 22:54
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FlamingLiberal posted:I'm pretty convinced that the very online culture war poo poo that they started last year cost them the Senate in 2022. The metrics going in were pretty favorable for them. I think it's ironic that the right-wing has adopted the stance that "the left can't meme" because they come off as too wordy, but everything that comes out of a right-winger's mouth these days requires years of online context to understand Imagine saying "the left is gonna force you to drink Bud Light!" to a right-winger from 3 years ago
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Jul 21, 2023 22:54
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Captain_Maclaine posted:I see it a little different: the party knows full well their culture war stuff is broadly unpopular, but they can't risk their own base rebelling, and so instead of pivoting to something more popular with non-insane wackadoos they're trying to stop the rest of us from voting at all.
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Jul 21, 2023 22:56
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Trazz posted:At this point it feels like the Republican party is held together by duct tape and chewing gum This exact sentiment has been posted since before Trump was elected
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Jul 21, 2023 22:58
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