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(Thread IKs: weg, Toxic Mental)
 
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Alan Smithee
Jan 4, 2005


A man becomes preeminent, he's expected to have enthusiasms.

Enthusiasms, enthusiasms...
Lol thinking they are going to guilt trip America over someone who was an active combatant

Alan Smithee fucked around with this message at 16:47 on Jul 22, 2023

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Gervasius
Nov 2, 2010



Grimey Drawer
Apparently, he was embedded with MLRS unit that got hit by counter battery fire.

Good.

beer_war
Mar 10, 2005

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1682786801650417665?s=20 Welp.

Hannibal Rex
Feb 13, 2010

NihilCredo posted:

Lmao goddammit

To be fair, I don't think that thinking "USA did NS2" automatically makes one a Russian stooge; the Hersh article was crap but they're still a very plausible candidate. But crap like "the world is done with the West's 'rule-based order'" is purestrain Putin-speak.

It's all good. I was just too lazy to poke holes into the shoddy reasoning of his article itself, when I could just let his tweets demonstrate where he's coming from. Plenty more :tinfoil: there, if you want to go digging.

It's one thing to have a hunch about NS, but if you're pretending to be some security/foreign policy big brain academic, you better have some very good arguments why the Biden administration, which has been consistently erring on the side of caution when it comes to escalation management throughout this war, compared to states like the UK, Poland or the Baltics, let alone Ukraine itself, would be the one to recklessly and needlessly escalate in such a dramatic fashion, for pathetically minor benefits compared to the risks involved.

But to return to that article, just briefly:

quote:

After more than a month of carnage, the long-awaited Ukrainian counter-offensive south of Zaporozhe looks to be going nowhere. Mired in dense thickets of physical obstacles and minefields, and unable to manoeuvre while lacking adequate protection from the air, Western-supplied Ukrainian armour is being picked off en masse by unsuppressed Russian anti-tank weapons and their infantry shredded by massive and well-directed artillery fire.
...
Germany, for instance, the richest and largest west European country and a traditional land power, recently announced its aspiration to be able to field a well-equipped army division (approximately 15,000 troops) by 2025. Ukraine probably lost more than that in the month of July while Russian mobilisation has added multiples of that in a year. while Russian mobilisation has added multiples of that in a year.

So sure, it's obvious by now that the Ukrainian plan A was a failure. But he's completely oblivious that they've changed tacks pretty soon after that. He's talking about a completely one-sided slaughter and more than 700 Ukrainian casualties per day here, which is either a complete asspull, or an embrace of Russian propaganda accounts. No one has enough insight into the attrition on both sides to make such sweeping statements right now and be taken seriously.

quote:

The fact is that Western military science, which has not been tested against a peer enemy in more than a generation, has got a major development in warfare seriously wrong, radically overestimating the power of offensive manoeuvre by highly mobile, digitally-networked forces that are relatively light, highly expensive, and in short supply—a ‘basket’ in which it has invested all its metaphorical ‘eggs’.

Like everyone else has already pointed out, by expanding from Ukraine's concrete situation in order to generalize about "Western military science", all the while inconspicuously ignoring Western, i.e. US air power, he shoots any valid arguments he might've had in the foot.

quote:

Eventually, though, reality trumps wishful thinking and it is doing so now increasingly obviously on the Russian steppe.

I'm sure that's just an innocent mistake.

Alan Smithee
Jan 4, 2005


A man becomes preeminent, he's expected to have enthusiasms.

Enthusiasms, enthusiasms...

Maybe he should have worn a “It’s Her Turn” hat

Dwesa
Jul 19, 2016

Maybe I'll go where I can see stars

:v:

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

The US bombed the Kerch bridge.

Yeah I said it what

celewign
Jul 11, 2015

just get us in the playoffs

This is not effective. Overhead imagery is rarely taken from straight above, but with some slant. The perspective differences would be exposed immediately. Also, overhead SAR would immediately identify these target as nonmetallic and 2D. Pattern of life would also identify that these are images, not vehicles, you would expect to see people and maintainers around fighter jets. There are ML algorithms that do change detection automatically.

You can't fool overhead with paintings in 2023.

RBA-Wintrow
Nov 4, 2009


Clapping Larry

WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:

The US bombed the Kerch bridge.

Yeah I said it what

IT WAS THE PERFIDOUS FRENCH!!11!1!

EorayMel
May 30, 2015

WE GET IT. YOU LOVE GUN JESUS. Toujours des fusils Bullpup Français.

RBA-Wintrow posted:

IT WAS THE PERFIDOUS POLES!!11!1!

Fixed for historical accuracy

William Bear
Oct 26, 2012

"That's what they all say!"
I prefer the C-SPAM thread title, "girkin' hard, or hardly girkin'?", but this one is good, too.

Shaman Tank Spec
Dec 26, 2003

*blep*



RBA-Wintrow posted:

IT WAS THE PERFIDOUS FRENCH!!11!1!

Pictured: the glamorous and elegant French air striking the bridge.

beer_war
Mar 10, 2005

https://twitter.com/dwnews/status/1682781130041204738?s=20

I can't believe Russia would fire cluster munitions at actual journalists.

tiaz
Jul 1, 2004

PICK UP THAT PRESENT.


Zelensky's Zealots

Pablo Bluth posted:

Russia has genuinely bombed New York, killing four civilians. Finally time to evoke article five?...

New York. Donetsk Oblast

man how hot poo poo must York have been that everyone went back to their own country and was like "drat, you know what we need? York, but here, and new"

Alan Smithee
Jan 4, 2005


A man becomes preeminent, he's expected to have enthusiasms.

Enthusiasms, enthusiasms...
I wonder if the English picked a mediocre place to make Amsterdam look bad

TulliusCicero
Jul 29, 2017




Yeah gently caress RULES!LET DICTATORS NUKE EACH OTHER WHOO

I only see this "Rules Based Order" poo poo from Tankies and Chuds, and in increasing numbers. Gee, I wonder where this new talking point came from?

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy

TulliusCicero posted:

Yeah gently caress RULES!LET DICTATORS NUKE EACH OTHER WHOO

I only see this "Rules Based Order" poo poo from Tankies and Chuds, and in increasing numbers. Gee, I wonder where this new talking point came from?
It's pretty funny because I think they wouldn't like "might makes right" very much either.

I've never heard of this guy but he's a tool and manages to contradict himself in the same article by claiming that NATO is failing but also that Ukraine is losing armor by not doing combined arms properly. Also forgetting that russia has been doing the same thing for a year and a half now.

the holy poopacy
May 16, 2009

hey! check this out
Fun Shoe
I like how the people complaining about rules based order never use it in the sense "the West hypocritically undermines its own ideals", they're always straight up saying "the decadent and corrupt west says that nations should not attack each other willy nilly, we must stand up against this onslaught on decency."

mobby_6kl posted:

It's pretty funny because I think they wouldn't like "might makes right" very much either.

Are you kidding? They loving live for that poo poo, "rules based order" is just a convenient dog whistle that lets them cheer for the boot without being completely transparent about it.

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy

the holy poopacy posted:

Are you kidding? They loving live for that poo poo, "rules based order" is just a convenient dog whistle that lets them cheer for the boot without being completely transparent about it.
Oh sure, but only until they get flattened by the USAF, then it's all :qq:

the holy poopacy
May 16, 2009

hey! check this out
Fun Shoe
The USAF has been proven obsolete, otherwise Amerikkka's lackeys wouldn't have lost their entire army twice!

capitalcomma
Sep 9, 2001

A grim bloody fable, with an unhappy bloody end.
A lot of the critiques I've read about the rules-based order boil down to hypocrisy, i.e. that the west is now denouncing imperialism after having practiced it for centuries. And that the rules apply to developing nations but not to the nations/people at the top (see Bush in Iraq, and suffering no consequences for it).

There's weight to these criticisms, they can't be immediately dismissed. In my mind, though, the solution to these problems is simply demanding that the rules be applied equally, not throwing out the rulebook entirely and going back to the old game of empires and regional powers, where peoples are at the mercy of their larger neighbors with no recourse or hope of aid, which is the real character of a "multi-polar world".

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

It is pretty funny that Russia keeps claiming it's fighting NATO.


I mean I'm just not sure that Russia's trench line would stop a half dozen Gerald fords from crippling the country over night.

Deteriorata
Feb 6, 2005

WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:

It is pretty funny that Russia keeps claiming it's fighting NATO.


I mean I'm just not sure that Russia's trench line would stop a half dozen Gerald fords from crippling the country over night.

They probably would, TBH. He hosed up his knee playing football.

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

Yeah a Gerald Ford can run 120 sorties or 240 sorties per day for 30 days straight without re arming.

3600 sorties in a month would effectively terminate Russia as a state entity.

Samovar
Jun 4, 2011

When I want to relax, I read an essay by Engels. When I want something more serious, I read Corto Maltese.

capitalcomma posted:

There's weight to these criticisms, they can't be immediately dismissed. In my mind, though, the solution to these problems is simply demanding that the rules be applied equally, not throwing out the rulebook entirely and going back to the old game of empires and regional powers, where peoples are at the mercy of their larger neighbors with no recourse or hope of aid, which is the real character of a "multi-polar world".

It needs to be more than simply demanding.

But yeah, the uh, multi-polar world idea is very, very dumb.

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

Disturbing news coming from the Polish border it appears that Russia is starting to mobilize and buildup military equipment.




And Poland is in turn mobilizing.

I don't even know what the gently caress to say about this one

Woolie Wool
Jun 2, 2006


capitalcomma posted:

A lot of the critiques I've read about the rules-based order boil down to hypocrisy, i.e. that the west is now denouncing imperialism after having practiced it for centuries. And that the rules apply to developing nations but not to the nations/people at the top (see Bush in Iraq, and suffering no consequences for it).

There's weight to these criticisms, they can't be immediately dismissed. In my mind, though, the solution to these problems is simply demanding that the rules be applied equally, not throwing out the rulebook entirely and going back to the old game of empires and regional powers, where peoples are at the mercy of their larger neighbors with no recourse or hope of aid, which is the real character of a "multi-polar world".

If you wallow in cynicism and :matters: long enough, you stop believing in the desirability or even possibility of rules and rule-based orders of any kind. Tankies and fascists don't actually believe the law means anything, it is only power that decides things and any rules that exist must just be a fig leaf over brutal coercion. Therefore, in such a view, why not just make the brutal coercion explicit? If might makes right, why not come out and say it?

Though, in the end, I think the fascists have a more consistent and logical take on this than the tankies, and a lot of tankies will eventually give up their pretense of :airquote: anti-imperialism :airquote: and just embrace the idea that imperialism is part of the natural struggle for existence, and ultimately embrace fascism itself.

Woolie Wool fucked around with this message at 19:40 on Jul 22, 2023

Drone_Fragger
May 9, 2007


I had heard insane rumours that russia was going yo try and force a corridor to Kaliningrad on the polish lithuanian border (which is apparantly a huge and known weakspot in nato force projection) but the idea was so insane (literally invade two NATO countries) I assumed it was journalists writing "opinion pieces" becsuse it was anslow news day.

Just Another Lurker
May 1, 2009

WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:

Disturbing news coming from the Polish border it appears that Russia is starting to mobilize and buildup military equipment.




And Poland is in turn mobilizing.

I don't even know what the gently caress to say about this one

Source?

Samovar
Jun 4, 2011

When I want to relax, I read an essay by Engels. When I want something more serious, I read Corto Maltese.

Woolie Wool posted:

If you wallow in cynicism and :matters: long enough, you stop believing in the desirability or even possibility of rules and rule-based orders of any kind. Tankies and fascists don't actually believe the law means anything, it is only power that decides things and any rules that exist must just be a fig leaf over brutal coercion. Therefore, in such a view, why not just make the brutal coercion explicit? If might makes right, why not come out and say it?

To be fair, how the police and law works in a lot of the U.S. CAN make a person feel this way very easily.

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy

Drone_Fragger posted:

I had heard insane rumours that russia was going yo try and force a corridor to Kaliningrad on the polish lithuanian border (which is apparantly a huge and known weakspot in nato force projection) but the idea was so insane (literally invade two NATO countries) I assumed it was journalists writing "opinion pieces" becsuse it was anslow news day.
There's no way they're dumb enough to actually try this. Before the 3-day special operation I could see Poopin believing this could work but there's no way even he is brainwormed enough to still think that.

E: would be kind of funny if they do though. Two years of worrying about how sending 5.56mm ammo is escalation and nooooks, and they just do it

mobby_6kl fucked around with this message at 19:41 on Jul 22, 2023

Grape
Nov 16, 2017

Happily shilling for China!

tiaz posted:

man how hot poo poo must York have been that everyone went back to their own country and was like "drat, you know what we need? York, but here, and new"

Have you uh, ever looked at what we call towns and cities here in the Americas before? Because um...

GolfHole
Feb 26, 2004

Drone_Fragger posted:

I had heard insane rumours that russia was going yo try and force a corridor to Kaliningrad on the polish lithuanian border (which is apparantly a huge and known weakspot in nato force projection) but the idea was so insane (literally invade two NATO countries) I assumed it was journalists writing "opinion pieces" becsuse it was anslow news day.

I mean as a long-term goal, sure. Why else hold the port. First you kind of need to figure out how to do that successfully, though.

ZogrimAteMyHamster
Dec 8, 2015

WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:

Disturbing news coming from the Polish border it appears that Russia is starting to mobilize and buildup military equipment.




And Poland is in turn mobilizing.

I don't even know what the gently caress to say about this one
Excuse me, what?

Sources?

Grape
Nov 16, 2017

Happily shilling for China!

the holy poopacy posted:

Are you kidding? They loving live for that poo poo, "rules based order" is just a convenient dog whistle that lets them cheer for the boot without being completely transparent about it.

This is true of chuds, because it's an explicitly fascist world view, might makes right.

As for tankies, well, let it not be said their love of being the "most leftist person in any room" is founded on strong well thought through grounds.

Deteriorata
Feb 6, 2005

ZogrimAteMyHamster posted:

Excuse me, what?

Sources?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jul/21/putin-warn-poland-against-unleashing-aggression-against-belarus-troops-eastern-border

quote:

Russian mercenaries from the Wagner group have begun holding training sessions for Belarusian troops at the Bretsky training centre in western Belarus, about six miles (10km) from a border crossing with Poland.

Poles near the border say they have heard gunshots and helicopters, Reuters reported this week.

Wagner fighters began arriving in Belarus in large numbers last week after their leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, struck a deal with the Kremlin to end a short-lived mutiny in which he sent his heavily armed fighters on a “march of justice” toward Moscow.

On Friday, Poland’s security committee said it would move troops toward the east in response to the Wagner group’s new presence in neighbouring Belarus. The independent Belarusian Hajun project estimated that about 2,500 Wagner mercenaries had arrived in the country, many from bases in Ukraine.

GolfHole
Feb 26, 2004

The thing about long-term goals is that it usually takes several steps to achieve said goal.

Mokotow
Apr 16, 2012

WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:

Disturbing news coming from the Polish border it appears that Russia is starting to mobilize and buildup military equipment.




And Poland is in turn mobilizing.

I don't even know what the gently caress to say about this one

Just made a check on all major Polish news sites and on the radio and there’s nothing about this.

There has been news in the last few days of Poland moving 3000 troops to the Belarusian border in response to supposed Wagner training border troops there.

spankmeister
Jun 15, 2008






Classic WAR CRIME GIGOLO posting

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Mokotow
Apr 16, 2012

Drone_Fragger posted:

I had heard insane rumours that russia was going yo try and force a corridor to Kaliningrad on the polish lithuanian border (which is apparantly a huge and known weakspot in nato force projection) but the idea was so insane (literally invade two NATO countries) I assumed it was journalists writing "opinion pieces" becsuse it was anslow news day.

I love this. The Suwalki corridor has been a scaremonger’s dream for ages now. Supposedly Russia has a plan to launch a land invasion of the 100km long gap between Belarus and Królewiec to establish a land bridge. Just looking at the map and some local knowledge will tell you how silly that is.

Establishing a 100km corridor surrounded on both sides by hostile forces would be silly enough, but then the bridgeheads are also indefensible. On the Królewiec side, you have flat land and no major features of any kind. In Belarus, the staging point would be Grodno, a city surrounded from three sides by NATO borders, that can be easily cut off from the rest of Belarus. That poo poo is not happening.

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