(Thread IKs:
fatherboxx)
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steinrokkan posted:Bring pro-Rusdian doesn't mean having a correct picture of the state of the Russian war machine on a strategic level or seeing past their sector of the front. Every army is full of doomers even if they end up winning in the end. I don't think Bulba of Thrones is a grunt on the ground. He's an armchair analysis like basically everyone. That doesn't particularly increase his credibility, I know, but it's an important difference. What Chalks is getting at though is that BoT believes that Oryx and co are genuine and honest about the numbers they provide about Russian forces and at least in the right ballpark about Ukrainian numbers even if there must be some intentional underestimation of Ukrainian losses, he doesn't believe that they're downplaying the numbers enough to matter.
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Jul 25, 2023 20:23
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Gort posted:They started with a USSR's worth of stuff to lose Yeah, even if you take Oryx's claims at face value they do not in any way begin to suggest that Russia would have run out of materiel by now. Oryx hasn't claimed that Russia has run out of any of its known equipment in service let alone the massive reserves it has on paper, and the current format of the war is not particularly demanding in terms of materiel. Artillery tubes are cheap and plentiful. Oryx's numbers imply that Russia's ability to conduct large scale armored maneuvers is severely degraded and that Russia is increasingly reliant on pulling mothballed equipment out of storage, which seem to be an accurate description of the current state of the war. This doesn't confirm Oryx, there are valid strategic reasons Russia might be keeping their tanks in reserve while they bulk up active forces from their reserves, but there's certainly nothing in the state of the battlefield to call Oryx's numbers into question.
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Jul 25, 2023 20:24
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WarpedLichen posted:Can you repost the evidence here? It would be interesting since Oryx has a link to every loss, it would be fun to see T-72 162 is the same as T-72 42 or whatever. https://twitter.com/ArmchairW/status/1510054419299065859?s=20 Here is one twitter thread which has often been cited by people on the topic of Oryx over-counting Russian equipment losses. This guy seems to have spent the most time examining the contradictions and issues within the Oryx data. His last thread I could find on the topic was around the time Oryx announced they were closing down: https://twitter.com/ArmchairW/status/1670982305966608384 I don't know if there is other analysis elsewhere to be found on the matter, this war has been going on for 500+ days now and there has been so much material posted that has been lost to time or I'm not competent to track down at the very least lol.. he referenced 5 reviews that he's done in the early days of the war but that guy tweets like 50 times a day and in the brief time I had during lunch I figured posting his summary of his work was enough and if you are interested maybe you can track down his actual detailed reviews. I understand that these are just one person's research and claims and that may not be compelling, but I would just echo the comments steinrokkan has made. The data is submitted by anyone on twitter who is motivated to send it in and the review process is by a team of volunteers who may well spend time and effort geo-locating and trying to confirm the losses but if you can't see why this approach would be subject to inherent biases from the population of people submitting photos as well as the limitation of the resources of the Oryx volunteers and is therefore extremely problematic to rely on as an accurate picture of the battlefield I guess I have no further arguments on the matter. I will just say my feeling is that if there is actually a catastrophic rate of exchange of equipment / personnel losses in any one area of the front then that will become evident in time by the side that is being pummeled breaking apart and retreating. I understand that the claim is that Ukriane has only adopted this attrition strategy relatively recently and it will take time to show results. We will see in time is what I am saying I guess. Starsfan fucked around with this message at 20:29 on Jul 25, 2023 |
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Jul 25, 2023 20:24
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Ok, by posting the Pedo Warlord you've automatically disqualified yourself.
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Jul 25, 2023 20:26
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Armchair Warlord is a complete idiot and a liar and grifter. He is extremely non-credible. EDIT: Like, you picked literally the worst dude to stake your opinion on. Kchama fucked around with this message at 20:28 on Jul 25, 2023 |
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Jul 25, 2023 20:26
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steinrokkan posted:Bring pro-Rusdian doesn't mean having a correct picture of the state of the Russian war machine on a strategic level or seeing past their sector of the front. Every army is full of doomers even if they end up winning in the end. They're not talking about their sector of the front or personal experiences. You're saying that anecdotes aren't useful for drawing broad conclusions - totally agree. Doesn't have anything to do with the significance of the post though. They're pointing at something that looks really bad for Russia and saying they can't see any way to deny it. I'm saying this is significant because they will have tried very hard to deny it. Chalks fucked around with this message at 20:31 on Jul 25, 2023 |
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Jul 25, 2023 20:28
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Starsfan posted:https://twitter.com/ArmchairW/status/1510054419299065859?s=20 This person is terrible and posts basically no real evidence, https://twitter.com/ArmchairW/status/1657896711287885824 You have a source here that is obviously not insanely biased and doesn't have half their tweets praising Putin?
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Jul 25, 2023 20:29
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^^I'm not recommending him for his political commentary, only that his work in reviewing what Oryx does has been recommended by others as a critique of their methodology and presumably that work can be reviewed and considered on the face of the evidence provided.steinrokkan posted:Ok, by posting the Pedo Warlord you've automatically disqualified yourself. lol I don't follow his account, like I said he is referenced by other people when this question comes up. I wasn't aware that he is apparently a pedo?
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Jul 25, 2023 20:30
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Starsfan posted:^^I'm not recommending him for his political commentary, only that his work in reviewing what Oryx does has been recommended by others as a critique of their methodology and presumably that work can be reviewed and considered on the face of the evidence provided. You should stop trusting those other people, and/or look into the source yourself. He's some American lawyer who writes books about boning schoolgirls. Like even beyond that, that analysis has already been debunked (because he just makes poo poo up and hopes nobody notices).
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Jul 25, 2023 20:33
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His logic on them not confirming as many tank crew deaths seems patently absurd, it's obviously a lot easier to look at and visually confirm that a tank is wrecked than to confirm that the people inside it died.
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Jul 25, 2023 20:33
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He wrote a "novel" about anime schoolgirls fighting some sort of war, with all the poo poo you can imagine it entails. Also he's like a 40 years old army dude in charge of replacing empty water jugs who became notorious for jerking off to anime on the job.
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Jul 25, 2023 20:34
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Kchama posted:You should stop trusting those other people, and/or look into the source yourself. I don't have time to review the photographic evidence of thousands of images on Oryx, cross reference them to eachother and against other sources and make conclusions on the accuracy of the estimated losses.
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Jul 25, 2023 20:34
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Starsfan posted:I don't have time to review the photographic evidence of thousands of images on Oryx, cross reference them to eachother and against other sources and make conclusions on the accuracy of the estimated losses. I, uh, mean just look at his freakin' twitter for five minutes and/or do a quick google.
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Jul 25, 2023 20:35
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Yeah, just reading his "debunking" it doesn't seem very credible. I was expecting proof of duplicates, not a guy going through photos and saying I can't see any marks so therefore they're wrong. Oryx could still be wrong, but that's really bad proof of it.
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Jul 25, 2023 20:35
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Starsfan posted:I don't have time to review the photographic evidence of thousands of images on Oryx, cross reference them to eachother and against other sources and make conclusions on the accuracy of the estimated losses. It's a shame the media literacy thread got closed it had quite a lot of info about at least trying to vet your sources. Nobody expects you to analyze each piece of information but people do expect you to do the bare minimum of checking who is telling you information is wrong and why before you use it as "evidence"
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Jul 25, 2023 20:36
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Irony Be My Shield posted:His logic on them not confirming as many tank crew deaths seems patently absurd, it's obviously a lot easier to look at and visually confirm that a tank is wrecked than to confirm that the people inside it died. It is absurd, since frequently tanks are wrecked after the crew has abandoned them, by throwing a grenade down the opened hatch of an immobile vehicle.
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Jul 25, 2023 20:36
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Kchama posted:I, uh, mean just look at his freakin' twitter for five minutes and/or do a quick google. oh I thought you meant with respect to Oryx WarpedLichen posted:Yeah, just reading his "debunking" it doesn't seem very credible. I was expecting proof of duplicates, not a guy going through photos and saying I can't see any marks so therefore they're wrong. He does reference 5 different analysis he has completed, that thread is meant to be a summary of his conclusions. It's possible that if you could track down his other work that constituted the actual analysis you would find examples of the like you are expecting. I guess so I'm not seen as advocating for this person I will advise that I am not recommending you browse his twitter lol. Starsfan fucked around with this message at 20:40 on Jul 25, 2023 |
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Jul 25, 2023 20:37
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Starsfan posted:^^I'm not recommending him for his political commentary, only that his work in reviewing what Oryx does has been recommended by others blink twice if these "others" in the room with you right now
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Jul 25, 2023 20:38
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Starsfan posted:https://twitter.com/ArmchairW/status/1510054419299065859?s=20 Just on the face of it, he appears to be making the same mistake that Western pundits did at the outset of the war when they were breathlessly reporting that Russia was on the verge of running out of shells allocated for the initial invasion. Those reports weren't even necessarily wrong, but there was also nothing stopping Russia from just... sending more shells. There's nothing inherently contradictory in the claim that Russia has lost more than twice the equipment in the initial invasion force, as long as Russia has reserves elsewhere that could be sent in. It definitely has them, and it's definitely been sending them, and it definitely has more where they came from. Again, that is not proof that the original invasion force got vaporized, but it does mean that there is no contradiction between "Russia lost twice as many tanks as they initially allocated" and "Russia is still fighting hard."
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Jul 25, 2023 20:39
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Starsfan posted:[insane pro-russian propaganda account] It takes about 10 seconds to see why those posts are nonsense. Why would you immediately jump to say that Oryx is unreliable but not immediately jump to say this stuff is unreliable? Why are you biased towards believing pro-Russian sources over pro-Ukrainian ones? Since you either don't know what these posts are talking about, or just didn't read them, here's my 10 second analysis of why this is nonsense: Mediazona generates Russian war death data based on obituaries that mention death during the war in Ukraine. It is obviously insane to claim that this covers more than a small fraction of all deaths. This propagandist is trying to claim that it represents 100% of deaths, and that 100% of destroyed tanks result in deaths both of which are clearly false. Chalks fucked around with this message at 20:42 on Jul 25, 2023 |
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Jul 25, 2023 20:39
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Starsfan posted:oh I thought you meant with respect to Oryx No, of course you can't do that yourself, so the only thing you CAN do is look into the source of the debunking and see if he has any obvious red-flags. Which, uh, "Nazi-loving Russia worshipper who hates the American military because he got kicked out for being too incompetent at his job to be promoted" should be a lot of red flags for trusting his analysis with further reading.
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Jul 25, 2023 20:40
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Starsfan posted:^^I'm not recommending him for his political commentary, only that his work in reviewing what Oryx does has been recommended by others as a critique of their methodology and presumably that work can be reviewed and considered on the face of the evidence provided. If there were any evidence that Oryx are double and triple counting losses then that would change, as they would then no longer provide a floor of losses. I haven't seen any evidence of that being the case in any significant amount. Do you have any? DTurtle fucked around with this message at 20:42 on Jul 25, 2023 |
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Jul 25, 2023 20:40
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The others being people like the Butter Goblin of Poland Michael Stacey and Kyiv sex pest extraordinaire Gonzalo
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Jul 25, 2023 20:40
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Starsfan posted:^^I'm not recommending him for his political commentary, only that his work in reviewing what Oryx does has been recommended by others as a critique of their methodology and presumably that work can be reviewed and considered on the face of the evidence provided. do you think that perhaps, given that he is an extremely not-credible source, that you should start re-evaluating the people who recommended him as well? perhaps you should have read it yourself and noticed how unreliable it was?
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Jul 25, 2023 20:41
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DTurtle posted:Oryx provides a reasonable floor of losses on both sides. What they don't provide is a ceiling or a real estimate of the overall losses. However, if the floor is already in a relatively critical or significant amount then that is still very useful information.
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Jul 25, 2023 20:42
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Starsfan posted:https://twitter.com/ArmchairW/status/1510054419299065859?s=20 You chose him as a source? 
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Jul 25, 2023 20:44
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Chalks posted:It takes about 10 seconds to see why those posts are nonsense. I've mentioned already that I don't place weight on pro Russian or pro Ukrainian OSINT analysis. I was asked to provide an example of criticism of the Oryx methodology, I searched and that twitter thread was what I came up with in the limited time that I had. You are correct that I didn't read through his twitter or references before providing the information outside of checking briefly if I could scroll back through his timeline to find the 5 analysis threads that he was basing his summary on and determining that he spewed out posts at a rate that made that impracticable steinrokkan posted:The others being people like the Butter Goblin of Poland Michael Stacey and Kyiv sex pest extraordinaire Gonzalo Don't follow either of those people lol. Starsfan fucked around with this message at 20:47 on Jul 25, 2023 |
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Jul 25, 2023 20:45
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Irony Be My Shield posted:His logic on them not confirming as many tank crew deaths seems patently absurd, it's obviously a lot easier to look at and visually confirm that a tank is wrecked than to confirm that the people inside it died. Exactly, any kind of critical analysis shows that there is no credible methodology in that conclusion. If 1300 vehicles were catastrophic kills, it doesn't mean that everyone of them were blown up while crew was still inside. And even if somehow they were and 3900 tankers died that way, we would still never get that information from Russian sources.
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Jul 25, 2023 20:45
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Starsfan posted:oh I thought you meant with respect to Oryx I did take a look at the threads, like the thread for T-80U was just garbage (and didn't correlate with the current numbering, but time makes fools of us all).
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Jul 25, 2023 20:47
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Starsfan posted:I've mentioned already that I don't place weight on pro Russian or pro Ukrainian OSINT analysis. I was asked to provide an example of criticism of the Oryx methodology, I searched and that twitter thread was what I came up with in the limited time that I had. You are correct that I didn't read through his twitter or references before providing the information outside of checking briefly if I could scroll back through his timeline to find the 5 analysis threads that he was basing his summary on and determining that he spewed out posts at a rate that made that impracticable Please post the actual source that convinced you of your absurd position, or don't post at all. Posting a terrible source and then saying "that's just what I found from a quick search" is crap. If you can't find a good source for your position, please consider not holding it, or at least don't go around claiming it.
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Jul 25, 2023 20:49
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Starsfan posted:I've mentioned already that I don't place weight on pro Russian or pro Ukrainian OSINT analysis. I was asked to provide an example of criticism of the Oryx methodology, I searched and that twitter thread was what I came up with in the limited time that I had. You are correct that I didn't read through his twitter or references before providing the information outside of checking briefly if I could scroll back through his timeline to find the 5 analysis threads that he was basing his summary on and determining that he spewed out posts at a rate that made that impracticable does it concern you that your best source for something you believed was...that? do you feel more time searching would have found better results and would have found the definitely reliable evidence you definitely read that led you to that conclusion, rather than people regurgitating what that guy said acting as a cutout for his obvious nonsense because they wanted to believe it? evilweasel fucked around with this message at 20:53 on Jul 25, 2023 |
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Jul 25, 2023 20:50
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Phosphine posted:Please post the actual source that convinced you of your absurd position, or don't post at all. Posting a terrible source and then saying "that's just what I found from a quick search" is crap. If you can't find a good source for your position, please consider not holding it, or at least don't go around claiming it. The war has been going on for 500 days now, I was relating that I had seen evidence which questioned the veracity of the Oryx analysis (which all of you initially seemed open to) and then when asked to provide an example unfortunately I picked a bad one it seems. I can't recall at this point where that information was posted or even when to be honest. evilweasel posted:does it concern you that your best source for something you believed, apparently without evidence, was...that? do you feel more time searching would have found better results and would have found the definitely reliable evidence you definitely read that led you to that conclusion, rather than people regurgitating what that guy said acting as a cutout for his obvious nonsense because they wanted to believe it? yes it is possible if I spent more time searching that I would have found more or different information.
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Jul 25, 2023 20:52
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Starsfan posted:I've mentioned already that I don't place weight on pro Russian or pro Ukrainian OSINT analysis. I was asked to provide an example of criticism of the Oryx methodology, I searched and that twitter thread was what I came up with in the limited time that I had. You are correct that I didn't read through his twitter or references before providing the information outside of checking briefly if I could scroll back through his timeline to find the 5 analysis threads that he was basing his summary on and determining that he spewed out posts at a rate that made that impracticable You immediately say that Oryx is unreliable but you have to search from scratch to find any evidence of this when pressed? So when you said that, for all you knew, there was no evidence what so ever? And given the failure of your last minute search to find any evidence to back up your position... you still don't know of any? But your position on this is still that it's unreliable? Why? It's possible that this is actually a really good source of information, you know. That seems to be what all the evidence points to. Is it safe to say that no matter what, you will never concede that? Even when pro-Russian bloggers are admit it, you wont? I really question your motivation.
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Jul 25, 2023 20:56
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The limitations of the Oryx list are well understood. You can find discussions of its limitations everywhere, even Twitter users have stumbled upon some that are real. The list under counts losses of both sides with different biases due to the way the data is collected, and that's fine. Just the embeds alone of this "Armchair Warlord" person are enough to dismiss this cretin and anyone who believes him. He fits in perfectly on that platform.
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Jul 25, 2023 20:58
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“Starsfan posted:I've observed evidence and arguments that Oryx has been shown to accept photoshopped images, multiples of the same equipment being destroyed from different angles (and sometimes not from different angles) photos of Ukrainian equipment which is claimed to be Russian. Their verification process appears to have serious shortfalls. Starsfan posted:I was asked to provide an example of criticism of the Oryx methodology, I searched and that twitter thread was what I came up with in the limited time that I had. Research after assertion, it’s the modern way.
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Jul 25, 2023 21:02
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I think Oryx probably gets it right most of the time with the material he's working with, but there are reasons why Oryx/Geoconfirmed might not be giving the full story - maybe the Russian side is less willing to share drone footage, or maybe the Russians are more likely to share pictures of their damaged hardware than the Ukrainians. (Of course, this could also be true in the opposite direction.) Drones and OSINT mean this is probably the most documented war in history, but there could still be big blind spots
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Jul 25, 2023 21:02
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socialsecurity posted:It's a shame the media literacy thread got closed it had quite a lot of info about at least trying to vet your sources. Nobody expects you to analyze each piece of information but people do expect you to do the bare minimum of checking who is telling you information is wrong and why before you use it as "evidence" This has apparently been dropped from moderation policy.
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Jul 25, 2023 21:05
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Aside from developments around Bakhmut, is anything else of note happening?Kchama posted:Armchair Warlord is a complete idiot and a liar and grifter. He is extremely non-credible. 
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Jul 25, 2023 21:05
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Starsfan posted:oh I thought you meant with respect to Oryx Imho, it's not really a useful reference if you reference back to other stuff you yourself wrote. But you thinking that's a defense seems plausible, since based on your posting you seem to be very, to be blunt, stupid. To make me less depressed about dumbasses posting dumb poo poo, News from Die Zeit Liveblog: The EU is convinced they can just replace the shipping routes for grain in the Black Sea, given enough time and money. From further down the same thread (now buried a bit under newer news): Lithuania has already made noises about the three Baltic States using their harbors for grain shipments. Personally, I think even if this just puts pressure on Russia, it would help, as it sends a message that if Russia doesn't come back to the table, Ukrainian grain will just be re-routed through a mix of train, roads and Baltic seaports.
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Jul 25, 2023 21:06
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Starsfan posted:yes it is possible if I spent more time searching that I would have found more or different information. So if we take the above quote and pair it with this one: Starsfan posted:I've observed evidence and arguments that Oryx has been shown to accept photoshopped images, multiples of the same equipment being destroyed from different angles (and sometimes not from different angles) photos of Ukrainian equipment which is claimed to be Russian. Their verification process appears to have serious shortfalls. What we appear to have from your own narrative is that at some point in the past, you saw some Oryx-based content, immediately searched for the first thing you could find that dismissed it, and then clung to that idea for the rest of time? Or are you trying to say that in the past you read some other, mysterious analysis that convinced you it's all photoshopped lies, and this other dogshit you dug up just now was just the first random thing you could find to defend your opinion, which definitely comes from a much better source that you just don't have to hand right now? Because what you've said could be read that way too, so I'm just trying to give you the benefit of the doubt. Either way, what a lot of people are telling you (and you keep ignoring) is that you seem to be up to your eyeballs in bad sources telling you what you want to hear. Like, this quote, which I will not actually link to (because I am trying to make a point that has nothing to do with some dumb interforums war): Starsfan posted:To be clear what I've seen is claims that as few as 2,000 soldiers remain in Bakhmut as of now, which may partially explain why things seem to be collapsing quicker now.. not that there were only 2,000 soldiers on average in Bakhmut during the course of the battle. The idea would be that Ukraine is withdrawing from the city. Maybe the reason you keep thinking stuff like "The Ukranians will lose 20k troops in a Grand Encirclement" is the same reason you think a fraud idiot is a good source on stuff like this? I dunno, just seems to me like maybe there's some correlation there.
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Jul 25, 2023 21:06
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