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fatherboxx)
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since the thread is talking about the odds of stochastic terrorism in russia, i'm assuming the armored reserves ukraine seemed to be bringing forward haven't been up to much of anything? i haven't really seen anything about the southern front for the last couple of days
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Aug 2, 2023 23:16
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:since the thread is talking about the odds of stochastic terrorism in russia, i'm assuming the armored reserves ukraine seemed to be bringing forward haven't been up to much of anything? i haven't really seen anything about the southern front for the last couple of days It's becoming increasingly clear that the armored southern offensives were a bust. The NYT detailed the results today: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/02/us/politics/ukraine-troops-counteroffensive-training.html NYT exerpts posted:The first several weeks of Ukraine’s long-awaited counteroffensive have not been kind to the Ukrainian troops who were trained and armed by the United States and its allies. At this point Ukraine has pivoted back to attrition fighting and small, localized infantry attacks. The decision to send armored columns directly into the jaws of heavily fortified, mined, layered defenses without either an artillery or air advantage (in fact significant disadvantages in both) after months and months of telling the enemy exactly when and where the attack would occur seemed nuts to me from the start. Vox Nihili fucked around with this message at 23:35 on Aug 2, 2023 |
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Aug 2, 2023 23:33
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Apparently, some of the mine fields the Ukrainians have been encountering are absolutely massive. In training, the western trainers told them that mine fields are usually 100 - 200 meters wide and 10 - 20 meters deep. The Ukrainians laughed and said they’ve encounter mine fields several kilometers wide and several hundred meters deep.
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Aug 2, 2023 23:53
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fatherboxx posted:And Kyiv Independent knows that they are linked to the rise in the consciption age based on...? they don't, but are using the fun media technique of reporting a second fact after the first, not explicitly stating a causal relationship, and letting readers fill that in for them. all of the association, none of the journalistic integrity issues! the Meduza article doesn't mention the change in mobilization age AFAICT, though does indicate that law enforcement had found emails from the scammers on the arsonist's computers, and that one was filmed calling someone shortly after torching the wrong building.
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Aug 2, 2023 23:54
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Seems like it's settling into a stalemate with both sides flinging things at the other due to things being too entrenched with countless mines. Russia will have to crack from within or this could become the new normal if Ukraine can't find a way to breakthrough, I can't imagine the west wanting to force a peace out of this stalemate while they can keep testing their surplus military equipment and sell off the extra while not giving Ukraine the equipment to really break the stalemate or protect it better from missile strikes.
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Aug 3, 2023 00:10
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:since the thread is talking about the odds of stochastic terrorism in russia, i'm assuming the armored reserves ukraine seemed to be bringing forward haven't been up to much of anything? i haven't really seen anything about the southern front for the last couple of days Mike Koffman has said on various podcasts that trying to get the Ukrainian military to a)fight like a western military and b)train and utilize newly mobilized personnel as their spearhead for the offensive were probably mistakes. To the first point, the Ukrainian military is still at heart an artillery-driven military with it's roots in Soviet doctrine and tactics. It's actually fights fairly effectively that way. Ukrainian infantry, supported by sufficient artillery, is pretty good at slowly taking ground from poorly trained, and equipped mobilized Russians. It's not quick, it's treeline to treeline, and it's not without casualties, but it has been making steady progress. Trying to teach them to fight the way the US would fight is a whole lot more complicated than giving them some western equipment and precision guided munitions. To the second point, while the new brigades with western equipment given good equipment and hopefully good training, they were still made up of green troops with a few months training. The unit cohesion that comes from actual battlefield experience is pretty hard to replicate when the poo poo hits the fan, and in many areas of the front experienced Ukrainian units without western equipment have performed much better on the offensive than the new brigades. The ideal thing may have been to train those experienced formations on the new equipment, but with that would have come the hard decision to pull them off the line for training in the middle of the Russian winter offensive. Ukraine has largely stopped trying to fight like a western military and has resumed fighting like the Ukrainian military. The way the Ukrainian military fights worked at Kherson and is slowly working now, they're just up against much more heavily entrenched Russian forces that aren't on the wrong side of the river this time. I would expect more slow Ukrainian advances, not a breakthrough and collapse like Kharkiv. The Russian forces in the south are reportedly exhausted (presumably the Ukrainians may be as well), short on artillery ammunition, and lacking in reserves which could set up conditions for some sort of Russian collapse on that front in the coming weeks but I wouldn't count on it.
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Aug 3, 2023 01:16
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I figure they have about 6 months to show good results. After that it's election season in the US. If they don't show progress by then , funding the war is going to become a political point for the Republicans to hammer the Democrats with.
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Aug 3, 2023 01:36
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Vox Nihili posted:At this point Ukraine has pivoted back to attrition fighting and small, localized infantry attacks. The decision to send armored columns directly into the jaws of heavily fortified, mined, layered defenses without either an artillery or air advantage (in fact significant disadvantages in both) after months and months of telling the enemy exactly when and where the attack would occur seemed nuts to me from the start. With modern-day satellites and airborne intelligence-gathering platforms, you can't really hide build-ups anymore. The south was always the area promising the best results strategically so its not like telegraphing the attack hurt them in that sense. Remember the Surovikin line was being built well before the year started. The depth and scale of the fortifications as well as the willingness of the Russian mobilized soldier to fight were the main x-factors that threw them off. It's a tough call right now. As I posted about a month ago, the Ukrainians are probably going to have to make a tough call about pulling their chips back from the rail and save them either to counter an anticipated Russian winter offensive or continue to send in infantry probes and hopefully develop better conditions to try and unleash a new offensive. Most observers on both sides agree that the Ukrainians retain a significant percentage of well equipped units that were prepared for this attack
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Aug 3, 2023 02:11
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MikeC posted:With modern-day satellites and airborne intelligence-gathering platforms, you can't really hide build-ups anymore. The south was always the area promising the best results strategically so its not like telegraphing the attack hurt them in that sense. Remember the Surovikin line was being built well before the year started. The depth and scale of the fortifications as well as the willingness of the Russian mobilized soldier to fight were the main x-factors that threw them off. May you expand upon this in more detail? Are we saying that if the 2023 Ukrainian Counter Offensive fails then the next stage of the war is to see if Russia can take back territory? Why wouldn't Ukraine try to push in the winter too?
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Aug 3, 2023 06:03
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:May you expand upon this in more detail? Are we saying that if the 2023 Ukrainian Counter Offensive fails then the next stage of the war is to see if Russia can take back territory? Why wouldn't Ukraine try to push in the winter too? Continuing or launching another offensive in Winter is not out of the question for Ukraine, but it will depend on large part of what their artillery stockpile looks like. In that they have to have enough in stock to actually have an effect on offensive operations and possible Russian offensives. Not to mention the condition of their reserves and being able to properly rotate troops. There are times when you can push your forces, but you do not want to get to a point where you break them. It is also not out of the question that Russian simply continues to dig in if they believe their forces are unable to push or break up Ukrainian lines, and only launches localized attacks/probes throughout the winter. I do not think either side has the manpower/material to continue major offensive operations for several years, at which point we are looking at the situation becoming static.
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Aug 3, 2023 07:15
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Mr. Apollo posted:Apparently, some of the mine fields the Ukrainians have been encountering are absolutely massive. In training, the western trainers told them that mine fields are usually 100 - 200 meters wide and 10 - 20 meters deep. The Ukrainians laughed and said they’ve encounter mine fields several kilometers wide and several hundred meters deep. This will take a century plus to unfuck, or maybe even new zone rouges 
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Aug 3, 2023 08:01
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The zone rouge came about due to all the chemical contamination, i.e. arsenic concentrations that are literally off the charts. That's unlikely to happen in Ukraine at this moment. Removing all the mines and UXO, though, that is going to take a century or more.
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Aug 3, 2023 09:06
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daslog posted:I figure they have about 6 months to show good results. After that it's election season in the US. If they don't show progress by then , funding the war is going to become a political point for the Republicans to hammer the Democrats with. Which could just as easily be hammering the Democrats by saying that Biden is just a continuation of Obama's weak foreign policy, rather than that Biden is wasting American money on the losing side.
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Aug 3, 2023 10:23
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daslog posted:I figure they have about 6 months to show good results. After that it's election season in the US. If they don't show progress by then , funding the war is going to become a political point for the Republicans to hammer the Democrats with. Even if this was true (it's not), lots of other countries are supporting Ukraine.
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Aug 3, 2023 11:45
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Dick Ripple posted:Continuing or launching another offensive in Winter is not out of the question for Ukraine, but it will depend on large part of what their artillery stockpile looks like. In that they have to have enough in stock to actually have an effect on offensive operations and possible Russian offensives. Not to mention the condition of their reserves and being able to properly rotate troops. There are times when you can push your forces, but you do not want to get to a point where you break them. I too, feel like this will end up like some kind of frozen conflict like Korea but long term I don't see how Russia comes out the victor.
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Aug 3, 2023 12:00
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MikeC posted:It's a tough call right now. As I posted about a month ago, the Ukrainians are probably going to have to make a tough call about pulling their chips back from the rail and save them either to counter an anticipated Russian winter offensive or continue to send in infantry probes and hopefully develop better conditions to try and unleash a new offensive. Most observers on both sides agree that the Ukrainians retain a significant percentage of well equipped units that were prepared for this attack Last year they had the partial mobilization. This year they have nothing so far.
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Aug 3, 2023 14:21
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Oh Himars   video in this article https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...apphireappshare guess they thought they were safe on the beach, nope.
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Aug 3, 2023 14:39
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Hundreds?
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Aug 3, 2023 14:56
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LifeSunDeath posted:Oh Himars quote:around 200 Whenever anything mentions 200 KIA I immediately assume it is a mistranslation/misinterpretation of Soviet 'cargo 200' military jargon.
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Aug 3, 2023 15:15
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LifeSunDeath posted:Oh Himars Officers feeling safe and having groups of men form up every morning in the exact same spots for pep talks is literally asking for it. 
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Aug 3, 2023 15:24
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Definitely looks like a few dozen. Maybe over a hundred, depending on how many were in the bushes.
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Aug 3, 2023 15:25
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DTurtle posted:What does Russia have in the pipeline that would enable them to lead a winter offensive? Russia going on the offensive this winter would be a great way to lose the war. I think even Putin is starting to realize that the best he can do is try to hold onto what he has.
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Aug 3, 2023 15:28
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DTurtle posted:What does Russia have in the pipeline that would enable them to lead a winter offensive? There was a recent package of laws in regard to conscription and mobilization, blocking people who received draft notices (now electronically) from leaving the country and making fines for evasion more severe both for mobilized-to-be and their employers. They are likely a sign of coming mobilization wave. If they do it in September, they could make it a yearly thing for years of war to come.
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Aug 3, 2023 16:01
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Does this mean new recruits will start coming out of cities like Moscow and St Petersburg?
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Aug 3, 2023 16:02
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:Does this mean new recruits will start coming out of cities like Moscow and St Petersburg? There have been plenty recruits from St. Petersburg and Moscow last time - since 200k roubles a month is not as lifechanging sum for us big city folks, quotas were filled with raids and orders sent to factories.
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Aug 3, 2023 16:06
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:Does this mean new recruits will start coming out of cities like Moscow and St Petersburg? They have been already - not totally proportionately, but the notion that noone in the imperial core is fighting the war is an exaggeration.
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Aug 3, 2023 16:07
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fatherboxx posted:There have been plenty recruits from St. Petersburg and Moscow last time - since 200k roubles a month is not as lifechanging sum for us big city folks, quotas were filled with raids and orders sent to factories. But weren't the majority of current soldiers from other areas?
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Aug 3, 2023 16:47
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Rugz posted:Whenever anything mentions 200 KIA I immediately assume it is a mistranslation/misinterpretation of Soviet 'cargo 200' military jargon. It's an unsubstantiated claim by EuromaidanPress which was quoted by Kyiv Post and then re-reported by that Mirror article as "Ukrainian media reports...". There's a Ukr Govt. estimate of "dozens" killed which is more believable but still probably upper-bounds figures.
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Aug 3, 2023 16:50
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Rugz posted:Which could just as easily be hammering the Democrats by saying that Biden is just a continuation of Obama's weak foreign policy, rather than that Biden is wasting American money on the losing side. surely the notoriously tuned in to foreign policy american electorate would scoff at this, noting that Biden's foreign policy, at least vis a vis russia, is basically as far from Obama's as it could be? okay, yeah, they pay no attention to foreign policy and will accept whatever pundits tell them as gospel Crosby B. Alfred posted:But weren't the majority of current soldiers from other areas? iirc there was maybe a map that better showed the ratio of draftees to population, but i can't find it. https://archive.is/vpdp4 has a basic heat map, but with no data for Moscow. https://en.zona.media/article/2022/10/24/marriedanddrafted has a "Share of draftees" tab that's maybe relevant, but i can't say for sure as they don't explain the calculation plenty of people are coming from Moscow, but there are also a ton of people in Moscow. as a percentage of population mobilization has been more aggressive in the regions. those same regions also had more contract soldiers, as the army is a better economic opportunity than the local economy there.
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Aug 3, 2023 18:20
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Qtotonibudinibudet posted:surely the notoriously tuned in to foreign policy american electorate would scoff at this, noting that Biden's foreign policy, at least vis a vis russia, is basically as far from Obama's as it could be? If it was truly the polar opposite to Obama then Ukraine would have ATACMS.
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Aug 3, 2023 18:37
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by election time ukraine will be operating abrams and glsdb
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Aug 3, 2023 18:39
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Herstory Begins Now posted:by election time ukraine will be operating abrams and glsdb I am not sure glwhateveracronym will be delivered before the 2028 election.
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Aug 3, 2023 18:56
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Herstory Begins Now posted:by election time ukraine will be operating abrams and glsdb Like, 30 Abrams.
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Aug 3, 2023 19:26
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Most people don't care about Ukraine because American lives aren't being used over there. Without some clear threat, foreign policy elections are tough to sell.
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Aug 3, 2023 19:26
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fatherboxx posted:There was a recent package of laws in regard to conscription and mobilization, blocking people who received draft notices (now electronically) from leaving the country and making fines for evasion more severe both for mobilized-to-be and their employers. They are likely a sign of coming mobilization wave. If they do it in September, they could make it a yearly thing for years of war to come.
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Aug 3, 2023 20:19
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Russia doesn’t seem to have much of anything you could call training
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Aug 3, 2023 20:25
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I could be wrong, but didn't Russia lose a lot of their more elite troops in the opening days/weeks of the war?
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Aug 3, 2023 20:34
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OAquinas posted:Definitely looks like a few dozen. Maybe over a hundred, depending on how many were in the bushes. A report I saw said there were five simultaneous strikes, so the total of those would be the 200 200s.
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Aug 3, 2023 20:37
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Mr. Apollo posted:I could be wrong, but didn't Russia lose a lot of their more elite troops in the opening days/weeks of the war? Yep and later on they fed their training cadre into the fight... that option never works out well.
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Aug 3, 2023 20:40
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Mr. Apollo posted:I could be wrong, but didn't Russia lose a lot of their more elite troops in the opening days/weeks of the war? The "top tier" operators--the VDV paratroops--were tasked with taking Hostomel airport to use as a base for a decapitating strike against Zelenskyy's govt. They weren't supported so they were just crushed and most of them were killed. After them, the next best crew was Wagner, which spent a year meatgrinding out Bakhmut.
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Aug 3, 2023 20:41
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