(Thread IKs:
fatherboxx)
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Mr. Apollo posted:I could be wrong, but didn't Russia lose a lot of their more elite troops in the opening days/weeks of the war? VDV was hit hard in Hostomel, the good tank divisions got got throughout 2022 pre-mobilization, but the total amount of casualties among those can't be considered critical judging purely by numbers. Special forces... well, nobody is going to report them unless they fail extremely hard. Professional soldiers that served from before 2022 are an issue because, since they have been heavily used since day 1, their morale is not great and they tend to look for service at the backline/training or resign. I personally know one officer who very quitely changed career to coding while he still could prior to mobilization. Ynglaur posted:I wonder if Russia does a "wave", or just continues the steady mobilization it has de facto been implementing. The steady approach doesn't appear to have incurred significant political costs, while a wave mobilization theoretically could. It also may have a more practical reason: it's just easier to absorb a steady stream of new recruits than it is to absorb tens of thousands at a time. Russia does not have the training structures of, e.g. the United States military. The steady approach they have been trying for this year is "silent" mobilization - without sending anybody draft notices or doing raids, but bolstering recruitment efforts - running the contract service campaign, stimulating governors to recruit and equip locally, creating faux-pmcs from workers of state-controlled companies. And of course encouraging seasonal draft conscripts to sign up for contract once they finish first few months of basic training. Medvedev, Shoigu and some other dipshits reported hundreds of thousands of new soldiers, but I don't know if anyone can trust them.
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Aug 3, 2023 20:51
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OddObserver posted:I am not sure glwhateveracronym will be delivered before the 2028 election. timeline is fall according to Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Russia, Ukraine, and Eurasia U.S. Department of Defense Laura Cooper https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ground-launched-small-diameter-bomb-wont-make-ukraine-combat-debut-till-fall
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Aug 3, 2023 20:55
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Scratch Monkey posted:Russia doesn’t seem to have much of anything you could call training Last summer I would have agreed, though not before last summer, and probably not now. Russia's training approach has been to have units train their soldiers. This contrasts with the US, which has a training school for drat near everything. Those schools even fall under an entirely separate command (TRADOC) from the line units, and people are sent to them on temporary duty assignments. By last summer, many of the Russian units had been mauled, and particularly their junior officers who plan and lead that type of training. This was then exasperated by grabbing trainers from the relatively low number of schools Russia did have and sending them to replace losses. We're now a year past that, and I would be very surprised if Russia has not put in place some form of training which is at least modestly effective for how they fight. For evidence, I point to the relatively good performance of their mobilized soldiers in the defense of the south. fatherboxx posted:VDV was hit hard in Hostomel, the good tank divisions got got throughout 2022 pre-mobilization, but the total amount of casualties among those can't be considered critical judging purely by numbers. Special forces... well, nobody is going to report them unless they fail extremely hard. ...
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Aug 3, 2023 21:00
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mllaneza posted:A report I saw said there were five simultaneous strikes, so the total of those would be the 200 200s. My god. 40,000 russians ... dead
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Aug 3, 2023 21:01
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Mr. Apollo posted:I could be wrong, but didn't Russia lose a lot of their more elite troops in the opening days/weeks of the war? these guys? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0rAHrHd2lcw Yeah lol, they kept dropping them in with zero support and they kept getting wiped out. After a while you didn't hear anything about VDV, just wagner.
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Aug 3, 2023 23:01
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I recall articles last year about how many of Russia's more effective units like the naval infantry were ground down by repeatedly spearheading attacks, and the replacements they got weren't as well trained - so eventually they weren't more effective anymore.
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Aug 3, 2023 23:06
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fatherboxx posted:There was a recent package of laws in regard to conscription and mobilization, blocking people who received draft notices (now electronically) from leaving the country and making fines for evasion more severe both for mobilized-to-be and their employers. They are likely a sign of coming mobilization wave. If they do it in September, they could make it a yearly thing for years of war to come. I read about those new laws, and I was thinking about how it will effect Russian civil society. It's easy to ignore an imperial war if there's a low to zero risk of being sent to fight (i.e. the U.S. invasion and occupation of Iraq and Afghanistan), but if this war drags on and requires a yearly mass mobilization, or a steady drip of draftees, the risk of an average Russian citizen being drafted and sent to fight increases dramatically. I know you can't speak for all Russians, but is there a point where everyday citizens become more worried about being sent to the front than being sent to prison? I thought the whole unspoken deal was stay out of politics and we'll stay out of your life while your quality of life improves.
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Aug 3, 2023 23:38
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Staluigi posted:My god. 40,000 russians ... dead I'm sure you do know he means 200 deaths total, as mentioned '200' is slang for 'fatality' in Russian military.
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Aug 3, 2023 23:53
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BigRoman posted:I thought the whole unspoken deal was stay out of politics and we'll stay out of your life while your quality of life improves. It's one of those things that works until it doesn't. quote:“Everyone keeps buying at these subsidized rates,” said Anna, 44, who recently finished paying off one of her five existing mortgages. “And who is paying for it? The state.” Firehosing money into your economy works great, for a while.
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Aug 4, 2023 00:11
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Crosby B. Alfred posted:May you expand upon this in more detail? Are we saying that if the 2023 Ukrainian Counter Offensive fails then the next stage of the war is to see if Russia can take back territory? Why wouldn't Ukraine try to push in the winter too? DTurtle posted:What does Russia have in the pipeline that would enable them to lead a winter offensive? Sorry, I was at work and didn't feel like typing out a bunch on the phone. Fatherboxx has already talked a bit about the Russian mobilization being a constant effort. Despite the stated intention of 400,000 recruits appearing to fall well short so far of its goals, Medvedev has stated mid-Spring that around 100k have been pressed into service. Recently, that stated number is now at 185,000 men and at face value that covers most of the Russian losses sustained during the 22/23 Winter Offensive in and around Bakhmut and possibly more given Wagner took the brunt of the casualties early on and was replaced after it was bled white. The Russian version of 'Stop Loss' was already implemented as part of the fall partial mobilization and I haven't read anything about those conditions being lifted. You may say those numbers are all bullshit and maybe that is true but so far, despite heavy fighting thanks to the Ukrainian counter-offensive, the Russians have effectively stonewalled the Ukrainians on every front. Pro Ukrainian commenters talk about xyz square kilometers liberated but the Russian defensive lines have not been breached in any sector. As Kofman put it bluntly, the Ukrainians are struggling just to get past the crumple zone. Kofman states that in his last trip to Ukraine, the staff there have informed him that they do not believe the Russians have even committed their reserves to the fighting while we do know the Ukrainians are already rotating in their 2nd echelon troops. Against this backdrop we have reports of 100,000 Russians in the Kharkiv region (whatever that means). Rybar reported around a month ago that 4 Russian divisions were being refitted around the Kupiansk region behind the front lines and it was supposed to get equipped with what is left of Russia's latest and greatest (sorry can't find the tweet anymore). A sensible assumption is that once the Russians feel they have safely absorbed the bulk of the Ukrainian attacks and that the threat of a major breakthrough in the South is over, they will then flip back on the offensive. What else is there to do unless Putin is satisfied with freezing the conflict and allow the Ukrainians to regroup with yet another 6 months of western aid? So the question for the Ukrainians will be - If it is not possible to retake Zaporizhzhia Oblast (and it increasingly looks like the entire offensive is a bust), how much of these western-trained units do you keep out of active fighting in anticipation of renewed Russian threats? Already in the Kupiansk and Lyman region, the Russians are attacking and possibly setting up the groundwork. Do you really go all in and hope the Russians run out of men and artillery before you run out of men and tanks?
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Aug 4, 2023 00:40
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OAquinas posted:The "top tier" operators--the VDV paratroops--were tasked with taking Hostomel airport to use as a base for a decapitating strike against Zelenskyy's govt. They weren't supported so they were just crushed and most of them were killed. After them, the next best crew was Wagner, which spent a year meatgrinding out Bakhmut. The pre-2022 Ukrainian army is in a similar boat of having suffered very heavy casualties. At this point both armies are largely made up of people mobilized since Feb. 2022 and are very different forces from the armies that started the war.
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Aug 4, 2023 01:40
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fatherboxx posted:VDV was hit hard in Hostomel, the good tank divisions got got throughout 2022 pre-mobilization, but the total amount of casualties among those can't be considered critical judging purely by numbers. Special forces... well, nobody is going to report them unless they fail extremely hard. Professional soldiers that served from before 2022 are an issue because, since they have been heavily used since day 1, their morale is not great and they tend to look for service at the backline/training or resign. I personally know one officer who very quitely changed career to coding while he still could prior to mobilization. They also sent in OMON anti-terrorist and riot police, sometimes alongside military units or alone, because they thought they'd get the invasion under control rather quickly and then work on pacification. But they had entire units get murked by anti-tank weapons while they waited in their Typhoons or ambushed by entire towns and surrendered.
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Aug 4, 2023 03:06
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https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1687356280069820416 ukrainian naval drone attack seems to have hit something. russian official statement is that two drones were destroyed by outer harbor defenses, but if the stuff being posted to social media is legit then it seems to this non-sailor that there is a hole in that boat. right next to a port, so i'm assuming a fairly high chance it'll be stabilized and repaired, but it seems like something that will be taking up a russian dry dock for a while it's too bad it's a landing craft and not something that lobs missiles given the threat of a landing near odessa pretty much vanished after the first month or two of the war
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Aug 4, 2023 08:34
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Apparently two similar landing craft have already been take out of commission due to a lack of spare parts, so that one might be a scratch too.
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Aug 4, 2023 08:39
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yeah, i don't want to assume too much, but given the amount of highly visible trouble the russian navy has had with repairs just on the admiral kuznetsov, i have to wonder how many ships that theoretically could be put up in dry dock are actually going to return to duty. the navy was stretched thin on maintaining the fleet before the war, and outside the grain blockade and adding another vector for missile attacks it's not doing much and has to be the lowest priority out of the three main branches
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Aug 4, 2023 08:45
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Still useful,, as those ships could threaten other parts of the coast, be used to replace armored vehicles, etc.
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Aug 4, 2023 11:28
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It also means that the Russian fleet is likely to keep its fleet closer to port, and pressed together, which might encourage commercial shipping to go to Ukranian ports.
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Aug 4, 2023 12:13
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Another POV photo: https://twitter.com/The_Real_ITDUDE/status/1687357665737871360?s=20 This is claimed to be a video of the attack: https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1687359129508016128?s=20
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Aug 4, 2023 14:05
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Interesting, not a single tracer out other sign of fire to be seen. Staggering failure against a well known threat, for which there really can't be any excuse, and it can only be explained as a sign of a total lack of care. But they are right that technically it was destroyed on approach.
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Aug 4, 2023 14:19
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the cost ratio of these drones vs the targets they destroy is unbelievable. starting to wonder why we need big ships or tanks anymore since they can all get taken out by homebrew RC devices and C4.
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Aug 4, 2023 14:25
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clearly the next step in WARtm is the scifi trope of some sort of weird hive ship and a swarm of drones.
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Aug 4, 2023 14:30
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LifeSunDeath posted:the cost ratio of these drones vs the targets they destroy is unbelievable. starting to wonder why we need big ships or tanks anymore since they can all get taken out by homebrew RC devices and C4. The total failure of the ships to defend themselves has a lot to do with it. Also these naval drones are just fancy remote-guided torpedoes, and self-propelled torpedoes have existed since the 1860s. Vincent Van Goatse fucked around with this message at 14:52 on Aug 4, 2023 |
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Aug 4, 2023 14:49
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LifeSunDeath posted:the cost ratio of these drones vs the targets they destroy is unbelievable. starting to wonder why we need big ships or tanks anymore since they can all get taken out by homebrew RC devices and C4. Can't launch a tomahawk from a drone (yet). And you need humans on a vessel going out on extended tours or into deep water, even if only to keep the machinery running.
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Aug 4, 2023 14:51
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In a sense a tomahawk is itself a drone
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Aug 4, 2023 14:54
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The US Navy is really concerned about drone swarms. Basically you swarm the sea/sky with cheap drones and then try to slip an ASM through while the various RADARs/CIWS are overwhelmed. That or just every other or whatever drone has a payload.
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Aug 4, 2023 14:54
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LifeSunDeath posted:these guys? Does anyone have the version of this video where they subtitle it with him talking about being annihilated at Hostemel airport? That's always good for a laugh.
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Aug 4, 2023 15:26
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:The total failure of the ships to defend themselves has a lot to do with it. Also these naval drones are just fancy remote-guided torpedoes, and self-propelled torpedoes have existed since the 1860s. Well, remote guided for 700km is kinda a big deal. Of course, on a flip side, a torpedo probably would have done more damage.
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Aug 4, 2023 15:34
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mustard_tiger posted:Does anyone have the version of this video where they subtitle it with him talking about being annihilated at Hostemel airport? That's always good for a laugh. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gSzAnNU4u28
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Aug 4, 2023 15:37
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steinrokkan posted:Interesting, not a single tracer out other sign of fire to be seen. Staggering failure against a well known threat, for which there really can't be any excuse, and it can only be explained as a sign of a total lack of care. But they are right that technically it was destroyed on approach. It's kind of understandable though, because those drone boats have turned out to have legit amazing range. This happened 640 km (400 mi) from the nearest Ukrainian-controlled shores. 
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Aug 4, 2023 15:38
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OddObserver posted:Well, remote guided for 700km is kinda a big deal. Oh, absolutely they're impressive and a potent new tool in naval warfare. I just wanted to point out that fundamentally they're just a new variation on an older weapon. Actually I just remembered an even closer analog of these drones: Italian explosive motor boats used during WW2. Vincent Van Goatse fucked around with this message at 15:41 on Aug 4, 2023 |
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Aug 4, 2023 15:39
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LifeSunDeath posted:the cost ratio of these drones vs the targets they destroy is unbelievable. starting to wonder why we need big ships or tanks anymore since they can all get taken out by homebrew RC devices and C4. Properly operating CIWS would absolutely obliterate these drones (though truth be told, the amount it would cost in ammo to shred them would probably still exceed the cost of the drones by a pretty wide margin). Russia's naval systems are hardly state of the art though. That said, tuning CIWS for drones and close up threats does run the risk of occasional misfiring on civilian stuff nearby even though they currently still require a human operator to flip the safety on them to respond to threats.
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Aug 4, 2023 16:05
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Thank you.
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Aug 4, 2023 16:11
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All of the CIWS was probably cannibalized and bolted to the back of an AFV from 1983.
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Aug 4, 2023 16:41
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Nitrousoxide posted:Properly operating CIWS would absolutely obliterate these drones (though truth be told, the amount it would cost in ammo to shred them would probably still exceed the cost of the drones by a pretty wide margin). Russia's naval systems are hardly state of the art though. Just scold it if it's acting up https://twitter.com/webflite/status/1658936482067804162
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Aug 4, 2023 16:46
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ummel posted:All of the CIWS was probably cannibalized and bolted to the back of an AFV from 1983. According to Wikipedia, only the last three ships in the class are of the modernized layout equipped with the AK-630 CIWS; other ships don't have any CIWS listed. And the one that was hit isn't a modernized Ropucha. The only gun that could have fired on the drone was the AK-257 dual purpose gun, which has depression of only -10˚, and is probably not fit for the purpose in general. steinrokkan fucked around with this message at 16:53 on Aug 4, 2023 |
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Aug 4, 2023 16:50
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https://twitter.com/AndyVermaut/status/1687485591477501952?t=Vd3_h5XNhGwwHLZ4gzHrgw&s=19 Looks like the German fascist and neo-nazi party Afd got caught conspiring with Russian intelligence to try to delay weapons deliveries to Ukraine with a lawsuit. Supposedly, the costs of the lawsuit was to be paid by the Russian state and the negotiator was found with 9k EUR in mystery cash at the border. It's indirect evidence, so I dunno if heads will roll over this though
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Aug 4, 2023 17:16
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jarlywarly posted:The US Navy is really concerned about drone swarms. Well it is the main attack vector both Iran and China have developed to take out carriers. You send out dozens of cheap remote bombs effectively it overwhelms the defenses. All you need is one or two to get through the swarm. The entire future of warfare will need to be rethought really. As WWI changed it with the machine gun and tanks, WWII aircraft carriers and modern mechanized combat small inexpensive drones are going to make aircraft carriers and large bases/logistical hubs liabilities at least in the short term. My guess is in the short term you’ll see EW and CIWS attempt to defend it but I think ultimately what you will see is autonomous/semi-autonomous mothership drones used for defense that can drop dozens of drones to attack a threat.
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Aug 4, 2023 17:19
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steinrokkan posted:According to Wikipedia, only the last three ships in the class are of the modernized layout equipped with the AK-630 CIWS; other ships don't have any CIWS listed. And the one that was hit isn't a modernized Ropucha. But the ship was seen listing heavily to one side. It seems like the wise hero captain ordered one side of the ship to be flooded to allow its guns to engage close targets!
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Aug 4, 2023 17:40
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Djarum posted:Well it is the main attack vector both Iran and China have developed to take out carriers. You send out dozens of cheap remote bombs effectively it overwhelms the defenses. All you need is one or two to get through the swarm. If you like reading fictional dystopian stories about automated weapons, check out Second Variety by Philip Dick. It's a short story written in the 80s about AI combat that might turn out to be decades ahead of it's time.
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Aug 4, 2023 17:43
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steinrokkan posted:According to Wikipedia, only the last three ships in the class are of the modernized layout equipped with the AK-630 CIWS; other ships don't have any CIWS listed. And the one that was hit isn't a modernized Ropucha. Yeah, -10 degrees is really bad. Pretty much every other CIWS system out there has at least -13 degrees, with actual modern ones being -25 degrees. Russia is not keeping up with their naval weapons systems.
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Aug 4, 2023 17:45
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