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(Thread IKs: weg, Toxic Mental)
 
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redshirt
Aug 11, 2007

EasilyConfused posted:

Putin sucks and all, but I think you may be forgetting a little something that happened in 2020-2021.

The NBA suspended their entire season! And played the next in a Bubble!

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HonorableTB
Dec 22, 2006

quote:

We intend to begin on the first of February unrestricted submarine warfare. We shall endeavor in spite of this to keep the United States of America neutral. In the event of this not succeeding, we make Mexico a proposal of alliance on the following basis: make war together, make peace together, generous financial support and an understanding on our part that Mexico is to reconquer the lost territory in Texas, New Mexico, and Arizona. The settlement in detail is left to you. You will inform the President of the above most secretly as soon as the outbreak of war with the United States of America is certain, and add the suggestion that he should, on his own initiative, invite Japan to immediate adherence and at the same time mediate between Japan and ourselves. Please call the President's attention to the fact that the ruthless employment of our submarines now offers the prospect of compelling England in a few months to make peace.
Signed, ZIMMERMANN

:lmao: I can't believe Germany actually admitted to doing that. It would've been better for them if they hadn't because the US would've interpreted it as a British trick to get them into the war

mobby_6kl
Aug 9, 2009

by Fluffdaddy

HonorableTB posted:

The tanker that got blown up was the Sig, it was added to the sanctions list by the US in 2014. It was carrying aviation fuel to Crimea and Ukraine simply enforced the sanctions :shrug:

https://twitter.com/United24media/status/1687597473890504705?t=ZYdqm2cdEbKddLEn3OEhNw&s=19

Is this the blockade that I've been hearing about?

bob dobbs is dead
Oct 8, 2017

I love peeps
Nap Ghost
one of the great shattering aftereffects of bismarck being one of the most effective diplomats in history by decisively winning some wars and then saying "we stop here" and stopping (while the german public and the king thought they could get more) was that the diplomacy of germany in the 50 years after went sorta looney by rejecting the taking of peace when you're ahead. so zimmerman was a looney, but also ribbentrop and the career diplomatic office during both world wars

putins war is frankly also a great demonstration of the importance of knowing when to stop. bismarck was successful, all others mentioned in this post were basically complete failures. and bismarcks failure was in nationalism and the cause of the OG irredentism, alsace lorraine

bob dobbs is dead fucked around with this message at 00:43 on Aug 5, 2023

Moktaro
Aug 3, 2007
I value call my nuts.

All You Can Eat posted:

All abort the Rus bus

I need a Venga Bus rewrite for this.

EDIT: Wait wait, blow up SIG for great justice?

Moktaro fucked around with this message at 00:43 on Aug 5, 2023

Deki
May 12, 2008

It's Hammer Time!

EasilyConfused posted:

Putin sucks and all, but I think you may be forgetting a little something that happened in 2020-2021.


Well yeah, but did his regime not horrifically botch that as well?

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

Deki posted:

Well yeah, but did his regime not horrifically botch that as well?

800 000 excessive deaths, no biggie

redshirt
Aug 11, 2007

fatherboxx posted:

800 000 excessive deaths, no biggie

Just a statistic

- A Russian Academic

HonorableTB
Dec 22, 2006
https://tass.com/emergencies/1656905




Philonius
Jun 12, 2005

EasilyConfused posted:

Putin sucks and all, but I think you may be forgetting a little something that happened in 2020-2021.

Covid didn't help, but the birth rate was already plummeting since 2015, so even without the excess deaths they'd be in a population decline.

Computer viking
May 30, 2011
Now with less breakage.

bob dobbs is dead posted:

look, actually caring about the money when theres a fuckin war on is an anglo and maybe dutch affectation. even other western euros didnt do it. they invented both specie and fiat money to do war better, dont flip the relation. they'll just beggar the entire society. fuckin w the money hasnt moved putin an inch for a quarter century, why would it work now

The ruble may be basically fictional when it comes to foreign trade, but internally in Russia it is still a good proxy for what they choose to spend their man hours and resources on. If they spend a third of the national budget on the war, that means that either they spend less on everything else, or they cover it with more taxes (effectively meaning the population and local governments spend less on everything).

Magicking up more rubles does not actually create workers or steel out of thin air; it's ultimately just a way to direct where they go.

This becomes more vague with globalisation, but that's what the sanctions are for - and another reason the plummeting ruble value is important.

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

Latvia is moving troops closer to the border with Belarus in response to the Nazis moving into the area.


Visegrad24 Incase the normal naysayers cry fanfic.

The last time I said troops were moving to the border the naysayers had something on their face...

EorayMel
May 30, 2015

WE GET IT. YOU LOVE GUN JESUS. Toujours des fusils Bullpup Français.
You don't need to worry about paying things with rubles when you can just steal those things and/or report that you totally bought said things and they are in a warehouse north of St. Petersburg according to this piece of paper and no you cannot take a look :grin:

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

You know what's really sad is one of my dreams has always been to take the Trans-Siberian rail all the way to Vladivostok. I literally started learning Russian and reading Russian just to be able to make this trip so I would be able to actually enjoy myself instead of looking like a complete and utter idiot. Like I really like the Russian culture aside from the politics, now it feels like I will literally never be able to make that trip. It's kind of sad.

I got to the point where I could understand conversations and read pretty well. And I found bald and bankrupt who was a good source for a Westerner speaking to russians. Of course we all know what he is and I have learned this as well. But this whole thing in its entirety is completely unfortunate and sad, I mean I can literally never go to Russia at this point. I'll never be able to see the battlefields of Stalingrad. And that truly hits me hard.

Now it feels like saying you want to visit Russia is like saying you want to visit Nazi Germany in 1934.

redshirt
Aug 11, 2007

WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:

You know what's really sad is one of my dreams has always been to take the Trans-Siberian rail all the way to Vladivostok. I literally started learning Russian and reading Russian just to be able to make this trip so I would be able to actually enjoy myself instead of looking like a complete and utter idiot. Like I really like the Russian culture aside from the politics, now it feels like I will literally never be able to make that trip. It's kind of sad.

I got to the point where I could understand conversations and read pretty well. And I found bald and bankrupt who was a good source for a Westerner speaking to russians. Of course we all know what he is and I have learned this as well. But this whole thing in its entirety is completely unfortunate and sad, I mean I can literally never go to Russia at this point. I'll never be able to see the battlefields of Stalingrad. And that truly hits me hard.

Now it feels like saying you want to visit Russia is like saying you want to visit Nazi Germany in 1934.

Let's imagine we are playing Rummy on the over night train....

shadow puppet of a
Jan 10, 2007

NO TENGO SCORPIO


lol Russia will be filthy with British stag-do troupes of lads on Ryan Air/The Sun £12 Supa-Sava Holidays in under 6 years as soon as Bulgaria and Romania become too spendy.

large hands
Jan 24, 2006

shadow puppet of a posted:

lol Russia will be filthy with British stag-do troupes of lads on Ryan Air/The Sun £12 Supa-Sava Holidays in under 6 years as soon as Bulgaria and Romania become too spendy.

The only people who could give Russian tourists a run for their money in the lovely tourist Olympics...

HonorableTB
Dec 22, 2006

WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:

You know what's really sad is one of my dreams has always been to take the Trans-Siberian rail all the way to Vladivostok. I literally started learning Russian and reading Russian just to be able to make this trip so I would be able to actually enjoy myself instead of looking like a complete and utter idiot. Like I really like the Russian culture aside from the politics, now it feels like I will literally never be able to make that trip. It's kind of sad.

I got to the point where I could understand conversations and read pretty well. And I found bald and bankrupt who was a good source for a Westerner speaking to russians. Of course we all know what he is and I have learned this as well. But this whole thing in its entirety is completely unfortunate and sad, I mean I can literally never go to Russia at this point. I'll never be able to see the battlefields of Stalingrad. And that truly hits me hard.

Now it feels like saying you want to visit Russia is like saying you want to visit Nazi Germany in 1934.

I understand. I lived in Russia for a while, and my experience there absolutely feels like how you describe. The Russia I would recognize doesn't exist, but the honest part about it is, the Russia I recognized was the aberration and not the rule. Russia as it has been historically is more or less as it is now. If you grabbed someone from the Soviet Union in 1970 and brought them to present day to talk to me about living in Petersburg, they would look at me like I was insane because westerners visiting the USSR, let alone living there, was rare and difficult and would be a noteworthy thing.

Russia today is closer to how it has historically been than it has been for the previous 20 years. I talked to many older people in Russia when I was there who still found it odd that they had access to news sources that weren't Russian-government approved, and I had more old people strike up conversations with me than anyone else. Why? "When would I ever get the chance to talk to another American?

It's a different world man. It really is

redshirt posted:

Let's imagine we are playing Rummy on the over night train....


I accidentally illegally immigrated to Finland while extremely drunk one night because I got on the wrong train. I meant to get on the metro to Akademicheskaya Statsiya and in my drunken brilliance I somehow got a ticket to Helsinki at Finlandski Voxal and passed out in the bathroom. When the border guards knocked on the door to check my exit visa I pretended to be loudly and violently sick over the toilet until they left, and on the way back in I pulled the same trick. Finland was fun, I got some delicious breakfast by pointing at menu items like a caveman because I don't speak a word of finnish

HonorableTB fucked around with this message at 02:05 on Aug 5, 2023

Sedgr
Sep 16, 2007

Neat!

Putin is a real piece of poo poo.

EorayMel
May 30, 2015

WE GET IT. YOU LOVE GUN JESUS. Toujours des fusils Bullpup Français.

HonorableTB posted:

I accidentally illegally immigrated to Finland while extremely drunk one night because I got on the wrong train. I meant to get on the metro to Akademicheskaya Statsiya and in my drunken brilliance I somehow got a ticket to Helsinki at Finlandski Voxal and passed out in the bathroom. When the border guards knocked on the door to check my exit visa I pretended to be loudly and violently sick over the toilet until they left, and on the way back in I pulled the same trick. Finland was fun, I got some delicious breakfast by pointing at menu items like a caveman because I don't speak a word of finnish

:prepop:

poor waif
Apr 8, 2007
Kaboom

WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:

You know what's really sad is one of my dreams has always been to take the Trans-Siberian rail all the way to Vladivostok. I literally started learning Russian and reading Russian just to be able to make this trip so I would be able to actually enjoy myself instead of looking like a complete and utter idiot. Like I really like the Russian culture aside from the politics, now it feels like I will literally never be able to make that trip. It's kind of sad.

I got to the point where I could understand conversations and read pretty well. And I found bald and bankrupt who was a good source for a Westerner speaking to russians. Of course we all know what he is and I have learned this as well. But this whole thing in its entirety is completely unfortunate and sad, I mean I can literally never go to Russia at this point. I'll never be able to see the battlefields of Stalingrad. And that truly hits me hard.

Now it feels like saying you want to visit Russia is like saying you want to visit Nazi Germany in 1934.

Visiting Nazi Germany in 1934 would be bad, but a decade and change later is a different story. Putin won't live forever, he most likely won't be in power in a decade and change. I don't think the current regime is particularly grassroots, so whatever comes next could well be different. I learned Russian to be a contrarian, universities were heavily pushing learning Chinese at the time, but it's been useful for loads of things. Beyond enabling travel in a bunch of countries, it has let me help Ukrainian refugees when the full scale invasion started, I know a lot of Russian journalists and engineers that left after 2014, I've spoken to lots of people who have lived through serious historical events, all perspectives that I would miss out on without speaking Russian.

I don't think I'll never visit Russia again, I don't get the feeling that the current state of things is particularly sustainable. Even if Putin might want this war to continue forever, his successor might have different ideas. People can change their mind about things very quickly once a certain point of view stops being pushed heavily from state and media. Everyone in the Soviet Union was a stalwart communist until suddenly nobody was.

HonorableTB
Dec 22, 2006
Coincidence that Ukraine takes out the Kerch bridge right after hosting an expert in bridge closures...?

https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1687469428584144896?s=20

Toxic Mental
Jun 1, 2019

lol not "candidate for president" haha

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

:siren:Survohikin line has been BROKEN:siren:

I repeat THE LINE HAS BEEN BROKEN THE SOUTHERN FRONT IS COLLAPSING

weg
Jun 6, 2006

Reassisted Retrogression
Is that the first or second line of fortifications?

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

weg posted:

Is that the first or second line of fortifications?

First. Difficulties are coming with the second line.

This is huge huge news though.


Multiple breakthroughs are occuring. Not just a singular spot.

Robotyne is my guess at the location as that's on the road to Tokmak.

Tunicate
May 15, 2012

HonorableTB posted:

Coincidence that Ukraine takes out the Kerch bridge right after hosting an expert in bridge closures...?

https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1687469428584144896?s=20

Christie is also an expert at closing beaches and crossing the line

cr0y
Mar 24, 2005



Tunicate posted:

Christie is also an expert at closing beaches and crossing the line

Did you mean Bridges because that's a better joke

Dandywalken
Feb 11, 2014

WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:

:siren:Survohikin line has been BROKEN:siren:

I repeat THE LINE HAS BEEN BROKEN THE SOUTHERN FRONT IS COLLAPSING

oh?

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

Pushing through line two will be absolutely a tough fight but may fall apart soon. If it does it is about as strong as the revolutionary guard.

HonorableTB
Dec 22, 2006

Gigolo is talking about what I posted about before. The first line of Surovikin's defenses has been breached and they're working towards breaching the second line

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

HonorableTB posted:

Gigolo is talking about what I posted about before. The first line of Surovikin's defenses has been breached and they're working towards breaching the second line

Personally I projected it would be about 2 weeks before they broke the line and this is a full week sooner. That's a pretty major upset in the war. I mean this thing is supposed to be extremely defensive and it broke faster than the maginot.

Sure they have two more lines but once you break that first line, the whole first line becomes untenable and you might think that will mean the second line is more defensive but depending on the tempo of the units they may end up getting a lot of people caught flat-footed trying to retreat from the original line. So it could be a cascading failure effect or the second and third line aren't as populated as the first line and quickly become untenable by themselves because they're not ready to take the brunt of the counter attack without their forces retreating and Manning those positions.

A huge deal is that Russia does not have a strategic reserve holding these lines up as you would in a normal well-mab powered army.

Vaginaface
Aug 26, 2013

HEY REI HEY REI,
do vaginaface!
Man what I wouldn't give to know your sources

HonorableTB
Dec 22, 2006

WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:

Personally I projected it would be about 2 weeks before they broke the line and this is a full week sooner. That's a pretty major upset in the war. I mean this thing is supposed to be extremely defensive and it broke faster than the maginot.

Sure they have two more lines but once you break that first line, the whole first line becomes untenable and you might think that will mean the second line is more defensive but depending on the tempo of the units they may end up getting a lot of people caught flat-footed trying to retreat from the original line. So it could be a cascading failure effect or the second and third line aren't as populated as the first line and quickly become untenable by themselves because they're not ready to take the brunt of the counter attack without their forces retreating and Manning those positions.

A huge deal is that Russia does not have a strategic reserve holding these lines up as you would in a normal well-mab powered army.

I would disagree with your timeline. They've been working on breaching this line for a long time (including the time it took them to get to it) and the counteroffensive started in May. It did not break faster than the Maginot (the Maginot was never actually tested in combat, the Wehrmacht bypassed it through the Ardennes and flanked the Maginot line fortifications from behind), and Ukraine has a harder time ahead of it than it had behind it. The second line has concrete fortifications where the first line didn't, and they will have to continue slogging it out until the US gives F-16s unfortuntely.

Vaginaface posted:

Man what I wouldn't give to know your sources

Gigolo's sources aren't all that different than mine unless he has sources from his job that I don't (entirely possible). The difference is in our interpretations. If you compare my posts to Gigolo's you'll often see us posting about the same things with some delay, and with very different tones :) However, he is rarely factually wrong. He might get conjectural and excited but the facts of what he posts are almost always spot on and accurate. Just take his opinionated conclusions with the appropriate context

HonorableTB fucked around with this message at 03:59 on Aug 5, 2023

EasilyConfused
Nov 21, 2009


one strong toad

WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:

:siren:Survohikin line has been BROKEN:siren:

I repeat THE LINE HAS BEEN BROKEN THE SOUTHERN FRONT IS COLLAPSING

How many times has Ukraine won the war in your posts by this point?

boofhead
Feb 18, 2021

EasilyConfused posted:

How many times has Ukraine won the war in your posts by this point?

The AFU already took Moscow and now they're breaching the Surovikin line a second time - from the rear

redshirt
Aug 11, 2007

gently caress the Pah Wraiths!

WAR CRIME GIGOLO
Oct 3, 2012

The Hague
tryna get me
for these glutes

https://twitter.com/Kolowrat_/status/1687544852005695488?s=20

Autisanal Cheese
Nov 29, 2010

Vaginaface posted:

Man what I wouldn't give to know your sources

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tiaz
Jul 1, 2004

PICK UP THAT PRESENT.


Zelensky's Zealots

WAR CRIME GIGOLO posted:

First. Difficulties are coming with the second line.

This is huge huge news though.


Multiple breakthroughs are occuring. Not just a singular spot.

Robotyne is my guess at the location as that's on the road to Tokmak.

I mean probably but people were saying line 1 would be no end of problems and ...

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