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From the "this perpetual motion machine totally works" files, Southeast University (a global top 500 research school out of china) published findings that LK-99 is superconductive below 110K (-261F) although starts exhibiting superconductor-esque properties by ~ -60F https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LK-99#Replication_attempts quote:Synthesized LK-99 and confirmed zero resistance at temperatures below 110 K. Observed an abrupt drop in resistance between ~300 K and 220 K, aligning with the Korean LKK team's results. Structural consistency confirmed by x-ray diffraction.  I don't super understand the graph here, but it looks like resistance is at ~0ohms* from 0-110K (-61F) and then increases to 0.01 at 300K (80F) Apparently lead by itself is a superconductor (and so are gold and copper and I think silver), but only below 7K I've seen some speculation that the quality of the crystallization/type of crystal lattice formed may have an impact on quality. Internet consensus seems to be that this proves that it's at least a new family of superconductor, even if it isn't room temperature(yet). *0.0001 ohms, I think this instrument is not capable of measuring 0 ohms
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Aug 3, 2023 01:35
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More promising (but still early) research on lk-99, moderately reputable source https://arxiv.org/abs/2308.01516
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Aug 4, 2023 05:34
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Hadlock posted:More promising (but still early) research on lk-99, moderately reputable source Is there a thread on/focusing on LK-99? I don't mind the discussion here but it doesn't seem to be the place to talk about the technical aspects.
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Aug 4, 2023 15:21
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I want to bet on yellow being less than 4 (maybe way less than 4) in 5 to 12 months, but that is an expensive bet to place directly. Jan 4p are 2.6, so it would actually have to be below 1.4 in jan to make any money. Maybe sell a call spread - the chance of it being higher than now in Jan? I'm thinking less than 10%. But the chance of a squeeze getting manufactured between now and then - probably way higher. And I'm afraid that if I sell a call spread, I'll get the short leg assigned in a squeeze and have to close it out. Still, pondering selling long dated 4c and buying 7.5c.
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Aug 4, 2023 20:17
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Bremen posted:Is there a thread on/focusing on LK-99? I don't mind the discussion here but it doesn't seem to be the place to talk about the technical aspects. There's some technical stuff talked about in the linked thread from awhile back orange sky posted:https://forums.spacebattles.com/threads/claims-of-room-temperature-and-ambient-pressure-superconductor.1106083/page-13 lurksion fucked around with this message at 22:33 on Aug 4, 2023 |
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Aug 4, 2023 22:30
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I actually think the least bad option for betting against a stock is to sell naked calls out of the money.
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Aug 4, 2023 22:36
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Subvisual Haze posted:I actually think the least bad option for betting against a stock is to sell naked calls out of the money. Naked? Ever since GameStop, that seems like a very crazy thing to do.
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Aug 4, 2023 22:45
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Baddog posted:Naked? Ever since GameStop, that seems like a very crazy thing to do. Well consider your own example. You've identified that the premium/IV is very large on Yellow, but that works in both directions, so why not make IV/premium/theta work for you? Buying a put would require a very large movement just to break even. Selling a call does the opposite.
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Aug 4, 2023 23:24
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Subvisual Haze posted:Well consider your own example. You've identified that the premium/IV is very large on Yellow, but that works in both directions, so why not make IV/premium/theta work for you? Buying a put would require a very large movement just to break even. Selling a call does the opposite. I can't handle theoretically infinite loss though, and these things squeeze randomly with zero warning. That's why I'm saying buy a call to cap the loss at a higher strike (7.5 is the highest strike avail right now, at january at least).
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Aug 4, 2023 23:38
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Doesn't that open the possibility to have lose money on both legs if the price goes between?
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Aug 5, 2023 02:38
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Baddog posted:Naked? Ever since GameStop, that seems like a very crazy thing to do. Normal trading is never truly naked. You'll have your position closed and asked to fund or sell stock that day or a broker will do it for you before you get too far underwater unless there's MASSIVE price change. Also, volatile stocks might be subject to higher margin requirements so the brokerage is going to be covered regardless. When i worked at a lovely low fee day trading place the only time I saw a Supreme gently caress up was the flash crash of 2009 maybe? Edit 2010. That was a fun day. Oscar Wild fucked around with this message at 03:14 on Aug 5, 2023 |
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Aug 5, 2023 02:59
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Subvisual Haze posted:Doesn't that open the possibility to have lose money on both legs if the price goes between? You lose an increasing amount until you hit the higher strike. http://www.optionsplaybook.com/option-strategies/short-call-spread/
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Aug 5, 2023 03:07
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It's not infinite losses, it's limited to assets sizable by court order.
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Aug 5, 2023 14:34
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Hadlock posted:So then why are Freight trucks back ordered through next summer And why am I paying double to ship pallets?
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Aug 5, 2023 18:35
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Here's a helpful picture for what option play to do: (to help read the chart) So, if you think the stock will go up but will have low volatility along the way, then you should sell puts on it.
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Aug 5, 2023 19:18
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One thing I would add to your diagram is the volatility should be your forecast. And thus the different steps would be decrease, stay the same, or increase. To make sense of this, you would not typically want to sell options if you are forecasting an increase in volatility.
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Aug 5, 2023 19:40
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Oh I see, "volatility" on that chart is actually future predicted volatility relative to current volatility. Last week I actually made good money by selling OTM calls against $BUD across their earnings report. I actually guessed wrong with regard to the direction I thought the price would go, the stock went up after earnings but it went up less than my strike price so I was able to close the calls early after earnings with 70% profit thanks to post-earnings IV crush.
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Aug 5, 2023 21:09
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Pastrami posted:One thing I would add to your diagram is the volatility should be your forecast. And thus the different steps would be decrease, stay the same, or increase. To make sense of this, you would not typically want to sell options if you are forecasting an increase in volatility. Extremely good point. Yellow is very high volatility right now, but I think it's prolly near peak vol. At least if it doesn't get squeezed anymore! So my sense is price heading down, vol heading down, like a deflating balloon. Sell calls on this chart. But I'm not an animal, so sell call spreads, with about the highest upper bounds available.
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Aug 5, 2023 23:19
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Subvisual Haze posted:Last week I actually made good money by selling OTM calls against $BUD across their earnings report. I actually guessed wrong with regard to the direction I thought the price would go, the stock went up after earnings but it went up less than my strike price so I was able to close the calls early after earnings with 70% profit thanks to post-earnings IV crush. Sorry if these are silly questions but I’ve never traded options beyond simple buying calls/puts. If you sell calls/puts, you can just close them at any time like that? I figured you have to white knuckle it out until the expiration date. What happens to the contract when you close your position? Does it mean another trader or market maker has purchased the “selling” side of the contract?
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Aug 6, 2023 02:14
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Fireside Nut posted:
Yes
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Aug 6, 2023 02:20
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Fireside Nut posted:Sorry if these are silly questions but I’ve never traded options beyond simple buying calls/puts. If you sell calls/puts, you can just close them at any time like that? I figured you have to white knuckle it out until the expiration date. You gotta buy back the contract but yeah. An example would be say you sell a Put for $1 and then 3 weeks later buy the same Strike/Date for $0.20, making an $0.80 profit per share. Since you bought the same number of contracts as you sold your position is closed. At expiration (or early exercise) the OCC just nets out all the ITM contracts and sends instructions to brokers on where to send shares and money.
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Aug 6, 2023 02:22
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Fireside Nut posted:Sorry if these are silly questions but I’ve never traded options beyond simple buying calls/puts. If you sell calls/puts, you can just close them at any time like that? I figured you have to white knuckle it out until the expiration date.
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Aug 6, 2023 03:05
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Baddog posted:Extremely good point. Yellow is very high volatility right now, but I think it's prolly near peak vol. At least if it doesn't get squeezed anymore! Yeah and stocks like that have inverse spot vol correlation. So it’s like selling puts on a normal stock. Normal stock, if it goes down, vol goes up typically, so selling puts can be dangerous as you eat the delta expansion due to Vega and gamma. But yeah for a meme stock if it goes down it’ll typically get IV crushed on the way down, just be mindful you eat massive poo poo as it runs up in your face.
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Aug 6, 2023 03:23
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Maybe you guys should also explain what happens if they're exercised on call/put writing, because we all know that can happen.
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Aug 6, 2023 04:31
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notwithoutmyanus posted:Maybe you guys should also explain what happens if they're exercised on call/put writing, because we all know that can happen. Yeah theory can be enticingly simple and then you get assigned.
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Aug 6, 2023 04:43
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Assigned early? It has happened to me, but I dunno why people do it when they are giving up premium vs just selling their option. It was a low volume market, so I guess they just hammered the "I want out right now" button, instead of putting in a limit order for an extra couple hundred bucks and having to babysit it for a few minutes. It did make me worried they knew something that I didn't, but it was a non-event. I guess an edge case that makes sense is if there is a dividend coming up that is larger than the remaining extrinsic value of the call, it would make sense to exercise it early. (but I was put shares) If getting put the shares sends you into margin, you will get charged interest until you get the shares sold. And if you have shares called away, maybe that was a larger taxable event than what you were anticipating when you sold the call. I have sold a *lot* of contracts over the last couple years, and only been assigned early on a handful. It does happen though. We should just get rid of American-style options!
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Aug 6, 2023 05:18
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Thanks - appreciate the explanations!
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Aug 6, 2023 13:46
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Jenkl posted:Yeah theory can be enticingly simple and then you get assigned. Assignment is one of the most inappropriately stigmatized parts of selling options. Sufficiently capitalized, with correct margining (portfolio margin) and selling options at appropriate size for your portfolio, assignment is basically a non-issue. Even with reg-T margining it is generally a simple affair, but your chances of getting the oft-stigmatized margin call do increase. The most realistic risk you run into is your broker getting a few days of margin interest/borrow costs while everything settles out again (and any assignment fees if your broker sucks and has those). Also note since you will likely be making trades as a result, your trading commissions/fees will apply. Early assignment is extremely rare outside of 2 main scenarios (which are generally rare as well!): 1) imminent dividend where said dividend is larger/equal to the extrinsic value on the option 2) the option you are short is so deep in the money, there is 0 or pennies of extrinsic value left on the option (or underlying is insanely illiquid) In the case of 1), oh well, since the stock will drop by the value of the div on the next day, it will almost always be a relative wash. Normally this happens when you are short calls. You'll be short 100 shares per contract the next day. You can either cover the short shares and move on (and may have to pay borrow costs if there are any for the next few days until settlement), or you can sell a new option and buy the shares (to close), assuming you still want to be short naked calls. Scenario 2) is I think what people are more afraid of (but really shouldn't be). Let's say you are doing some arbitrage trade where you are short deep ITM calls on SQQQ and TQQQ. Let's say your TQQQ gets assigned early overnight. It is likely that the extrinsic value of said calls was nearly 0, or the spread was so wide on the shares or options that the option dealer (likely your counterparty if you get assigned) did not feel confident in their ability to appropriately hedge their ongoing risk. In this case you will be short 100 shares (if you were short calls), or long 100 shares (if you were short puts) for each contract. This really should not change the risk of the position for you, delta-wise, as for an option to have 0 extrinsic left it basically means the delta was already 100 for those options. You will probably get charged margin/borrow costs as applicable for the next few day settlement window, again this is the main penalty. Typically, if you want to maintain the current position (I'll use the SQQQ/TQQQ short position discussed earlier), you can cover the short shares and sell a new call at the same strike further out in time (as the longer out in time you go, the more extrinsic value there will be on the option in almost all cases). If you get early assigned on an option that had some actual extrinsic value, I would double check with a friend/folks on discord/etc to make sure you're not being a dumbass and missing a dividend or the option mark isn't incorrect due to a wide spread (I've been early assigned well over 100 times and still check with people in cases like these) because if it really did someone gave you a gift of free money. If it really looks like someone else gave you a gift, you can simply re-establish the former position and hope someone else gives you another gift (NOTE: if this happens, BE VERY SKEPTICAL, otherwise you've found free money which shouldn't exist). Note, I think this scenario has happened maybe once or twice to me. TLDR: Early assignment risk is overblown, and you do need to have a plan for when it does happen, but it generally isn't a big deal. Size small assuming early assignment is possible, get portfolio margin if you can, otherwise you can generally re-establish the same position with a longer dated option and the only costs you generally will face are margin/borrow fees during settlement of the shares (and any commissions you pay). fake edit: okay that was longer than I was expecting
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Aug 6, 2023 16:01
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Pastrami posted:fake edit: okay that was longer than I was expecting I agree with you but this was my point. Taking the time to understand it takes a bit, and if you learn about options from a textbook you may not even realize it's a thing you need to take time to learn about. I was referring to, and which I may be misremembering, an extreme case where a kid on WSB ended themselves because they were assigned one leg of a spread so their account showed as massively negative. They didn't understand that it's the interest on margin they're hooked for, and more importantly, that the figure didn't include the value of the other leg. I can personally admit to having a "ok well that was obvious in hindsight - someone would have to take the other end in case some exercises" when I learned about it, just because like, why the hell would anyone want to exercise?
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Aug 6, 2023 16:56
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Jenkl posted:I was referring to, and which I may be misremembering, an extreme case where a kid on WSB ended themselves because they were assigned one leg of a spread so their account showed as massively negative. They didn't understand that it's the interest on margin they're hooked for, and more importantly, that the figure didn't include the value of the other leg.
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Aug 6, 2023 17:00
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It's probably good that the gamblers keep away from selling options but I'm not sure them regularly wiping out their savings by buying OTM options is much of an improvement though. And the latter happens probably 100x as often.
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Aug 6, 2023 17:13
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Basically, yeah. With short options you are trading the dopamine of a 1000% gain for boring variance risk premium. Both are gambling if you are doing so without some reason to believe the option is over/underpriced.
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Aug 6, 2023 18:10
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anyone mess with prop / funded accounts for futures trading? Ive been learning futures for the last few weeks and doing pretty well on the simulator so I decided to try an Apex eval account since they're doing a 90% off deal rn. Looking at the rules though especially with the trailing drawdown based on unrealized gains seems pretty crazy, but I guess thats how they make their money. Assuming I end up failing, I was also looking at TradeDay and they calculate the trailing drawdown based on the end-of-day balance which seems much more fair (also they have no restrictions on withdrawls) but they have smaller drawdown amounts. Anyone here actually manage to make money with these?
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Aug 7, 2023 14:14
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PLTR and BYND both have earnings tonight that I'm bearish about, but they seem at risk of a further AI hype jump or short squeeze (BYND is 36% shorted) respectively though so I'll probably stay away. DIS earnings on Wednesday I might play. TSLA puts I previous sold across earnings have fallen into the money and expire this Friday. I could buy the puts back at a loss to close the position, but I think I'll let them get assigned if they stay in the money. If nothing else TSLA has large volatility and I can sell covered calls on it.
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Aug 7, 2023 14:51
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Why would a global shipping company be trying to decarbonize? How would that improve shareholder valueElephanthead posted:And why am I paying double to ship pallets? Inflation?
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Aug 8, 2023 05:26
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https://www.marketwatch.com/picks/the-7-cd-has-arrived-heres-the-deal-f2a76414 7% CDs quote:Alpena Alcona Area Credit Union is offering a 7 month CD at a 7.19% APY. It only requires a $500 minimum balance to open the certificate, but it has a maximum deposit of $7,000. And to qualify for membership, you must live, work, own property, or attend school in Michigan.
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Aug 9, 2023 00:52
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Hadlock posted:https://www.marketwatch.com/picks/the-7-cd-has-arrived-heres-the-deal-f2a76414 I just dropped 25k in a 5% 7 month CD from Truist
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Aug 9, 2023 02:00
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I’m so loving tired of the phrase here’s what you need to know. Especially because it’s invariably followed by things you don’t need to know to pad out the content length.
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Aug 9, 2023 07:20
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Pay by the word to get more words
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Aug 9, 2023 14:24
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Can I get the words on margin? I have a good feeling about this post
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Aug 9, 2023 15:22
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