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cirus posted:I just dropped 25k in a 5% 7 month CD from Truist Lot of uncallable 5%+ brokerable CDs out there right now, I've been picking up a few. Can get 5.6% on a 15 month callable from JP Morgan, but callable seems to defeat the purpose. If you think rates are going to drop, you want to lock the rate in, not get the cash back. And if you think rates are still going up, you shouldn't be locking in the lower rate for a long time period.
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Aug 9, 2023 17:20
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Baddog posted:Lot of uncallable 5%+ brokerable CDs out there right now, I've been picking up a few. Yeah that's basically getting a little more interest for giving the bank one way optionality. But sometimes those CDs aren't callable until after a certain date so you might wanna check that too. JPM has way more deposits than they need iirc so it's not surprising their bid for cash isn't very good.
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Aug 9, 2023 17:38
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Look what's on Slickdeals today: https://slickdeals.net/f/16843289-treasury-bond-offers-5-4-interest-for-3-4-6-12-months
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Aug 10, 2023 03:35
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Agronox posted:Look what's on Slickdeals today: I've been happy with XHLF (6 mo treasury ETF with 0.03% ER). Lots of other good short term options right now too.
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Aug 10, 2023 04:21
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Anyone have experience with holding options through closing dates on companies being bought for cash+contingent value rights (CVRs)? Feels like there is perhaps a decent amount of value on DBTX here, but trying to pull up OCC memos where these things have been transacted and divine why/how it fell out in the past is a bit of a puzzle to say the least. The 8-K seems to address how they are going to handle options the *company* has granted and is counterparty to, but doesn't really address the contracts between traders. At closing, each share will get $4 + a CDR worth $2 if a fifth trial patient gets the drug by eoy 2024 ( (a trial has already started registering patients), and another $1.5 if a phase 3 trial commences by eoy 2028. Market seems to be valuing the CDR around a dollar, but the option pricing out past the expected closing date is confusing me. Please no one rush to enter this trade, there is probably something I'm missing.
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Aug 10, 2023 20:49
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Google announced they're adding docusign type funcitonality to their google workspace (google docs paid version) product, any idea how this will play out for DOCU (docusign)? Looks like DOCU fell off a cliff end of nov 2021 $263->$40 and is currently trading around $50 since Nov 2022
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Aug 10, 2023 21:58
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MGNI crashing hard enough I may start a position below $7. When the market remembers they still make money, reversion to the mean ought to* float it back up a fair bit. Weak guidance but still growing in market share and revenue. *The market hates boring/positive news when I own the stock, but I digress.
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Aug 10, 2023 22:06
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It occurs to me that between some lucky earnings trades and the much higher interest rates on t-bills and MMFs and such this year I might need to withhold some extra federal taxes from my paycheck to avoid an underpayment penalty on next year's taxes. Punished by success. That sounds like a bear to calculate.
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Aug 11, 2023 02:45
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Subvisual Haze posted:It occurs to me that between some lucky earnings trades and the much higher interest rates on t-bills and MMFs and such this year I might need to withhold some extra federal taxes from my paycheck to avoid an underpayment penalty on next year's taxes. Punished by success. That sounds like a bear to calculate. You can also just send estimated payments too. Technically you're SUPPOSED to send them quarterly for things like dividends and self employment, but in my experience as long as all your combined payments cover your tax burden come tax time they won't ding you.
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Aug 11, 2023 03:16
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Also (lol not tax advice not a qualified tax advisor) if you wanna do a quick and dirty tax estimate: - your most recent paystub should have the ytd total income and taxes withheld. - your brokerage should give you a ytd tally on dividend, interest, and capital gains. - add all those numbers (investment income + job income) to get your total income so far. - look up in the tax tables the tax amount for your filing status. - if the amount withheld by your job is less than that log on to the IRS website and send the difference as an estimated payment. Save the receipt for returns next year. This will likely overestimate what you owe because it assumes no discount for qualified dividends and ltgc. I'm sure actual tax pros are screaming at their computer screens right now but that's what I do and it works.
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Aug 11, 2023 03:26
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Yeah, that's about what I thought. I figure my payroll has been taxed about correctly so in theory I'd just need to add up interest+dividends+cap gains and then multiply by my top tax rate to figure out the amount I'll likely owe. Maybe a bit less if the dividends are qualified. And ultimately I want to keep the amount I owe under $1000 to avoid an underpayment penalty. It is good to know though that I could just drop in an estimated payment instead of playing around with remaining additional paycheck withholdings.
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Aug 11, 2023 03:40
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Subvisual Haze posted:Yeah, that's about what I thought. I figure my payroll has been taxed about correctly so in theory I'd just need to add up interest+dividends+cap gains and then multiply by my top tax rate to figure out the amount I'll likely owe. Maybe a bit less if the dividends are qualified. And ultimately I want to keep the amount I owe under $1000 to avoid an underpayment penalty. If you didn't get an underpayment penalty last year you're safe. It's only if you do it 2 years in a row if I remember right
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Aug 11, 2023 03:53
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IIRC, if you've paid at least as much as you did last year you won't get an underpayment penalty. I overpayed my underpayment penalty for last year and got a refund check from the feds.
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Aug 11, 2023 05:35
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Hadlock posted:Google announced they're adding docusign type funcitonality to their google workspace (google docs paid version) product, any idea how this will play out for DOCU (docusign)? I don't think there's much moat for that sort of thing, electronic signing is pretty commonplace in software now. I think of the programs we use at work there's three of them that offer some electronic signing functionality for no extra cost. We don't use any of them though and subscribe to a dedicated e-signing program called Annature.
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Aug 11, 2023 10:27
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https://twitter.com/talmonsmith/status/1689986219835273216 had to double check at gov site but this is real text
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Aug 11, 2023 15:06
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pmchem posted:https://twitter.com/talmonsmith/status/1689986219835273216 Am I microwaved or does that say that 40% of all contributing factors to the current inflation rate on the global reserve currency are essentially brokerage fees being passed on?
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Aug 11, 2023 17:00
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PPI is *a* measure of inflation, but only one of many. And they are specifically talking about only one part of PPI (services), and only for one month. Also, the stock market rose in July, so even if portfolio management costs stayed exactly the same in %age, they would have gone up in nominal dollars.
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Aug 11, 2023 17:21
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drk posted:PPI is *a* measure of inflation, but only one of many. And they are specifically talking about only one part of PPI (services), and only for one month. Also, the stock market rose in July, so even if portfolio management costs stayed exactly the same in %age, they would have gone up in nominal dollars. Yes, a measure that is useful in predicting future CPI inflation and overall economic health by virtue of businesses interacting with the money of customers. I know it's measured month to month, it's not the overall inflation rate, only increased by a small fraction of a percent more than expected, and that it's not indicative of a larger trend. I also understand that portfolio management would still be a factor in inflation regardless of any policy decision simply because of its role in the growth of the economy I understand what and why, but is this worded very poorly and the distributed effects on all levels of goods and services due to portfolio management fees made the value of a dollar decrease between businesses exchanging a final product, or is there a sizable and direct correlation between the fee increases and the lowered value of a dollar in the purchasing, delivery, and storage of finished goods between businesses, regardless of how the fees are distributed across the economy? Because one makes perfect sense, and the other makes it sound like the businesses at the processed goods step are akin to banks that happen to sell things The Door Frame fucked around with this message at 19:44 on Aug 11, 2023 |
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Aug 11, 2023 19:42
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I gotta try to find how they even weight portfolio management in PPI, aren't the vast majority of $'s in ETFs or robofunds now? This feels like being overly concerned about the price of horses after the invention of the automobile.
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Aug 11, 2023 19:54
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Baddog posted:I gotta try to find how they even weight portfolio management in PPI, aren't the vast majority of $'s in ETFs or robofunds now? This feels like being overly concerned about the price of horses after the invention of the automobile. It sounds like those financial services fall under the umbrella, but who knows the weight https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm posted:The indexes for portfolio management; As far as the horse thing, maybe? It's just such a claim, so weirdly specific, and not really elaborated on in the rest of the press release, despite referencing it multiple times
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Aug 11, 2023 21:49
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If any of you have been following the AMC/APE saga--it had to have been an arbitrageur's nightmare--the settlement was just approved by the Delaware courts this afternoon. I'd expect to see APEs convert next week probably...
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Aug 11, 2023 22:30
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send both to zero and bankrupt all those idiots plz
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Aug 11, 2023 22:32
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I bought 1000 APE a couple weeks ago easiest money ever. AMC going to bleed down to zero
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Aug 11, 2023 23:17
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Agronox posted:If any of you have been following the AMC/APE saga--it had to have been an arbitrageur's nightmare--the settlement was just approved by the Delaware courts this afternoon. Wow, such a ripsaw on that one.
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Aug 11, 2023 23:33
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I have no idea what’s going on here, is meme stock AMC theater changing its ticker to APE?
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Aug 12, 2023 00:22
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Wifi Toilet posted:I have no idea what’s going on here, is meme stock AMC theater changing its ticker to APE? If this is true I'm shorting SPY we've jumped the shark
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Aug 12, 2023 00:30
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Wifi Toilet posted:I have no idea what’s going on here, is meme stock AMC theater changing its ticker to APE? Well its the future now and some portion of AMC apes don't want that to happen (others probably do depending on what exactly they're loving around with) since it dilutes AMC. So lawsuit yadda yadda, some deal was made that compensated prior AMC shareholders a bit, it was overturned, and now apparently its back. lurksion fucked around with this message at 01:50 on Aug 12, 2023 |
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Aug 12, 2023 01:45
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lurksion posted:When AMC was being pumped/squeezed, it took advantage of its artificially high price to issue a bunch of shares & sell them to raise capital. When it was no longer able to do so due to its governance/charter/whatever, it issued a new type of share (APE) and sold it instead, with the intention of converting APE to AMC in the future. Lol, that's even dumber. Thanks.
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Aug 12, 2023 01:49
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Specifically the share authorization vote was never voted down, it just never hit the minimum voting percentage to be valid, because memestonk idiots don't know how to vote proxy forms. But the corporate charter let them issue a bunch of preferred shares that can do all kinds of wild poo poo so they gave all the shareholders APE shares that automatically voted yes at 10x weight if you didn't vote. There were a bunch of lawsuits about it but the AMC board eventually won after throwing a few extra dollars at the common shareholders. A judge held it up for a few weeks on some obscure legal technicality which caused another stupid reddit conspiracy theory but it was never not gonna happen. The legal hold up was a small detail that they fixed in like an hour and just took a few weeks for the judge to formally stamp her approval on it.
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Aug 12, 2023 03:33
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it seems like both prices are down so much since the apes were issued that almost no one will win on the earlier arbitrage between the share prices. one of those trades were your grand thesis could have been right but smaller details and luck of timing still screw you over
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Aug 12, 2023 04:35
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GhostofJohnMuir posted:it seems like both prices are down so much since the apes were issued that almost no one will win on the earlier arbitrage between the share prices. one of those trades were your grand thesis could have been right but smaller details and luck of timing still screw you over The biggest problem that the arbs faced was that the cost to borrow AMC was ruinous, exceeding 200% annually right now but as high as over 1,000% last month. IIRC the conversion was supposed to originally happen in March. Anyone sitting on a short AMC position since then is probably underwater even if the APEs convert as early as Monday. It's a pretty fascinating play. Anyone who knew the intricacies of Delaware corporate law could've made a ton of money.
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Aug 12, 2023 05:27
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Agronox posted:
So basically the like 100 people who are in and around the crazy secretive cabal that runs Delaware corporate law which, when you start reading about it sounds like something out of a farcical dystopian absurdist movie?
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Aug 12, 2023 05:36
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AMC filed its timeline for the APE conversion this morning: https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/1411579/000110465923090981/tm2323643d1_8k.htm Pretty interesting. APEs should be converted to AMC by market open Friday, August 25th, which is of course a weekly options expiration date. If you could be completely sure that nothing will change between now and then, there is some free money arbitrage sitting out there, for example: BUY 100 sh APE @ 2.10 BUY 1 Aug25 $3.00 AMC put @ 0.54 So in that example you'd spend $264 to be assured at least $300 at the end of the day next Friday, for a pretty nice 13.6% return in two weeks. But this kind of trade has already been blown up twice before, so I can see why these kinds of opportunities are still out there. edit: Since then, the OCC has updated how they're actually treating the litigation settlement--it took a lot of the profit out of this potential trade. Agronox fucked around with this message at 16:47 on Aug 23, 2023 |
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Aug 14, 2023 16:41
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I see NVDA, one of the 5 largest stocks by market cap in the US, jumped +7% today on no news.
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Aug 14, 2023 21:01
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probably just earnings anticipation
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Aug 14, 2023 21:06
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A little odd for a company to add $70 billion of market cap in one day on a whim, but so it goes.
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Aug 14, 2023 21:16
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Subvisual Haze posted:A little odd for a company to add $70 billion of market cap in one day on a whim, but so it goes. 
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Aug 14, 2023 21:19
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Subvisual Haze posted:A little odd for a company to add $70 billion of market cap in one day on a whim, but so it goes. But enough about $GOON finally submitting its De Novo application to the FDA
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Aug 14, 2023 21:20
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Subvisual Haze posted:A little odd for a company to add $70 billion of market cap in one day on a whim, but so it goes. Someone said "AI" over the weekend
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Aug 14, 2023 21:30
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Morgan Stanley: friendship ended with TSLA, now NVDA is my best friend (and #1 stock pick)
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Aug 14, 2023 22:00
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