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fatherboxx)
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I must be a big dumb dumb. How is a series of smoke generators helpful for a miles long bridge? I can't see it being realistic to hope to conceal the entire thing and bridges are not what I would consider highly mobile.
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Aug 12, 2023 14:06
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bird food bathtub posted:I must be a big dumb dumb. How is a series of smoke generators helpful for a miles long bridge? I can't see it being realistic to hope to conceal the entire thing and bridges are not what I would consider highly mobile. Drones move fast and it's hard to aim accurately at a target you can't see, makes it more likely they hit the water instead.
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Aug 12, 2023 14:09
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If you have to protect a bridge you try to degrade as many sensors as you can. The drone boats seem to use cameras, so smoke is entirely appropriate to make it harder to steer them to their target.
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Aug 12, 2023 14:24
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Antigravitas posted:If you have to protect a bridge you try to degrade as many sensors as you can. The drone boats seem to use cameras, so smoke is entirely appropriate to make it harder to steer them to their target. Yep, smoke makes sense as a drone countermeasure. Not so much against cruise missiles or cruise-missileish drones.
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Aug 12, 2023 16:29
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Warbadger posted:Yep, smoke makes sense as a drone countermeasure. Not so much against cruise missiles or cruise-missileish drones. Still, I guess you use what you have. Also pre-empts awkward questions when that cruise missile strike was coordinated together with some drones. "Oh, Ivanovich, really? You thought there were no drones attacking today? Did you have some intel you didn't tell us about?" -some angry general after the Kerch-bridge gets blown up by a coordinated strike
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Aug 12, 2023 16:39
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a pipe smoking dog posted:Drones move fast and it's hard to aim accurately at a target you can't see, makes it more likely they hit the water instead. bro they already have exact GPS coordinates of where that bridge lies, it's not like they even need to aim.
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Aug 12, 2023 18:08
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Using smoke is a double edged sword, as while remote controlled drones use cameras, especially stopping the boat drones becomes difficult if gunners can't get a visual on them. That relies mostly on anti-drone nets though. The Ukrainian counter to this is to use one drone to clear the net so the next one can slip through. And you can't place obstacles everywhere on your commercial shipping lane... Aerial drones I don't think have much use against the bridge, they don't carry big enough warhead to do much and it's too easy to shoot down a slow flying drone with a radar aimed SPAAG.
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Aug 12, 2023 18:11
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LifeSunDeath posted:bro they already have exact GPS coordinates of where that bridge lies, it's not like they even need to aim. GPS is easy to jam for high value point targets which is why missiles like Storm Shadow also use inertial navigation. In the case of Storm Shadow it also uses infrared camera for target recognition, and there actually are infrared blocking smoke types. It's impossible to tell from photos and videos if the smoke used in Kertch is of that type, though.
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Aug 12, 2023 18:19
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Nenonen posted:GPS is easy to jam for high value point targets which is why missiles like Storm Shadow also use inertial navigation. In the case of Storm Shadow it also uses infrared camera for target recognition, and there actually are infrared blocking smoke types. It's impossible to tell from photos and videos if the smoke used in Kertch is of that type, though. so you're saying russia's defense is all smoke and mirrors, yeah that checks out.
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Aug 12, 2023 18:22
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It's a miles long bridge. I dont see it being realistic to generate enough smoke to conceal an entire bridge.
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Aug 12, 2023 18:46
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They need to hire David Copperfield.
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Aug 12, 2023 18:47
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Absurd Alhazred posted:They need to hire David Copperfield. Or the ghost of Jasper Maskelyne
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Aug 12, 2023 19:14
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Libluini posted:Still, I guess you use what you have. Also pre-empts awkward questions when that cruise missile strike was coordinated together with some drones. I assume when an alert goes out they just deploy all countermeasures, including the smoke and getting all the AD guys on alert regardless if it's sea or air. Smoke is cheap and regardless of what's coming they don't have the luxury of time to debate what to respond with. ^And yeah, I agree, they're not reliably covering this entire bridge with smoke with systems like that pictured. Your window to do it is very small and you'd better have a smoke generator *right* where they're gonna hit on that miles long bridge. But they can probably ensure spots like those hit previously are covered, which is I guess useful to avoid repeated strikes from causing really catastrophic damage. Nenonen posted:GPS is easy to jam for high value point targets which is why missiles like Storm Shadow also use inertial navigation. In the case of Storm Shadow it also uses infrared camera for target recognition, and there actually are infrared blocking smoke types. It's impossible to tell from photos and videos if the smoke used in Kertch is of that type, though. I would guess it's not as easy to jam as you'd think. There are counter-countermeasures for jamming and what works this week might not work next week, especially when you have things like inertial navigation and other sensors on board to aid in navigation. See the continued use of HIMARS on high value targets across the front lines where the primary countermeasure wasn't to completely shut down GPS guidance with cheap jammers... but to move stuff back out of HIMARS range. Where they are now getting hit by cruise missiles ALSO guided by GPS - and with enough precision that you can be pretty sure they're not relying on *just* inertial navigation. Warbadger fucked around with this message at 19:27 on Aug 12, 2023 |
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Aug 12, 2023 19:17
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The problem is, that the Kerch bridge is too visible and keeps breaking down for some reason. They should have dug a Kerch tunnel instead. Of course that wouldn't disruption shipping routes though.
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Aug 12, 2023 19:36
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cant cook creole bream posted:The problem is, that the Kerch bridge is too visible and keeps breaking down for some reason. They should have dug a Kerch tunnel instead. Of course that wouldn't disruption shipping routes though. The Kerch Tunnel would have been far too vulnerable to the NATO mole-men 
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Aug 12, 2023 19:44
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Smoke thing is going to gently caress with the Pantsirs doing SHORAD duty too given their apparent RoE
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Aug 12, 2023 19:45
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Kaal posted:or consider a lighter and more modernized redesign in the form of the Abrams X. As far as I know GDLS is still contracted to produce SEPv3 Abrams for another 4yr at least and the current expectation is that Abrams will still the US's primary MBT until at least 2030 and probably will serve until 2040 in one upgraded form or another. Right now the SEPv4 upgrade is supposed to be (I think there is still some testing going on so that could change) coming around 2025 and it probably won't be the last upgrade the Abrams gets. Abrams is a pretty expensive and a terribly heavy tank but its also still one of the best out there and its cheaper to do add ons or adaptations to it than a new tank so the current expectation is that it isn't going away.
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Aug 12, 2023 19:51
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Another Russian jet managed to hit the Russians greatest enemy, technical problems: A Russian SU-30 crashed over Kaliningrad, all crew lost according to Russian sources The last mention of the latest Kerch-bridge assault in our media mentions a Russian claim that they managed to destroy 20 drones (unconfirmed of course, like always). This reminded me of the ongoing debate here in Germany, about handing over our Taurus-cruise missiles to Ukraine. Because while our Tauraus-missiles have a lot less range than Stormshadows, they happen to have a MIRV-variant with semi-autonomous submunitions. Those submunitions can glide and use infrared-sensors to target anti-air. This means a potential future strike against the bridge using Taurus would see the number of destroyed "drones" going up fast, since every time an empty Taurus is hit by Russian anti-air, the up to eight submunitions raining down on active anti-air positions would look like even more drones that are then "destroyed" when they hit their targets. That's a lot of "drones" destroyed.  Edit: I think the Bundeswehr imagined their Taurus-missiles to work like this: A first wave gets painted by anti-air, but then splits up into submunitions now targeting and taking out Soviet anti-air, followed by a second wave of bunker-busting normal warheads to do the actual work. But I'm speculating here, as the Soviet Union collapsing and our extremely slow way of developing new weapons made all those plans obsolete, anyway. I'm not even sure the MIRV-variant was ever built! Though apparently the Bundeswehr did buy some before the project was shut down. and it's not like my uncle works at Rheinmetall or something, so I can't guarantee that none of the existing Taurus-cruise-missiles have multi-warheads. Libluini fucked around with this message at 19:58 on Aug 12, 2023 |
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Aug 12, 2023 19:56
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LifeSunDeath posted:bro they already have exact GPS coordinates of where that bridge lies, it's not like they even need to aim. GPS is jammed near critical targets like this, so you can use it to get into the general vicinity, but then you have to switch to radar, optical, IR, inertial or some combination of methods to guide the payload the last couple miles. In addition to GPS jamming and smoke screens, there are also dummy radar reflectors on both sides of the bridge, so they're trying to degrade as many sensor types as possible in the hope that warheads will fall short and hit the water, or if they do hit, will hit less critical parts of the structure then they were aiming for. Will any of these work? Probably not very well, but it makes sense to try, and there is a chance you turn a hit that would take down an entire span into a hit that just pokes a patchable hole in the road deck.
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Aug 12, 2023 22:00
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Damage assessment might be another aspect. Even if we knew for certain that the bridge had been attacked, it's really difficult to tell from the footage whether it was hit or what the damage was. Russia has a history of just going in and publishing photos of the exact damage as soon as it happens, but maybe they're learning from this and trying to avoid doing Ukraine's work for them
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Aug 12, 2023 22:10
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Serious question as I don't know how it works, but if GPS is blocked around the Kerch bridge, how come whenever the bridge is closed people can post maps showing the traffic jams building up? Would the data from the cars be from satnavs and GPS?
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Aug 12, 2023 22:11
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mr_jolly posted:Serious question as I don't know how it works, but if GPS is blocked around the Kerch bridge, how come whenever the bridge is closed people can post maps showing the traffic jams building up? Would the data from the cars be from satnavs and GPS? satnavs generally don't work well in a lot of russian controlled areas and even in Russian cities near sensitive sites. However, no jamming is completely effective, and google heavily filters location data, so as long as they're occasionally passing through a spot where the jamming isn't total Google can figure out that they didn't really drive through the middle of the sea and instead are on the road.
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Aug 12, 2023 22:23
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mr_jolly posted:Serious question as I don't know how it works, but if GPS is blocked around the Kerch bridge, how come whenever the bridge is closed people can post maps showing the traffic jams building up? Would the data from the cars be from satnavs and GPS? Phones can use cell tower triangulation for location as well, which wouldn't be affected by jamming the actual GPS signal.
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Aug 13, 2023 01:27
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Kaal posted:It certainly is a salient question. The Marines pulled out of the tank game entirely to focus on their mobile expeditionary niche. The Army is weighing whether to continue their incremental urban-combat-focused SEPv4 upgrades, or consider a lighter and more modernized redesign in the form of the Abrams X. It’ll probably hesitate to make any sudden decisions until more lessons have been learned from the conflict. There’s several different NATO militaries that are in the planning stages for a major tank design refresh. But one other thing I’ll point out is that Russian tanks nearly won this whole war with their sudden offensive towards Kyiv a couple years ago. Even if Putin couldn’t pull it off, I think that most militaries won’t want to lose that sort of capability. I mean the thing there is that even with a massive advantage in materiel and training the armored fist proved unable to actually succeed in accomplishing its objective, even with the relatively short distance from the border to Kyiv. You could say the problem there was logistics, not tanks - but the modern MBT is well known as an incredible logistics hog, so not sure its helping. Then we have the armored counteroffensive by Ukraine, which has failed to substantially breach the Russian defensive belts. Some say this is because they aren't up to Western training standards - but the fact is that noone in the West has trained against or even really contemplated the problem of breaching successive kilometer-depth minefields while missiles rain down on you. It's not that tanks stopped being a bulletproof box with guns on it. That's never gonna be useless. But are they an efficient weapon of war? hard to say at this point. Are they a dominant weapon of war? I really have my doubts. To put it another way, there's a lot of dumb things you can do that work just great if you have 5 times the budget of the other guy. Like maybe the US could have defeated Japan in WW2 even if the US only built battleships and not aircraft carriers. It still wouldn't have meant battleships were a good idea. The worth of the tank really depends on how well the next generation of anti-missile systems work out in practice against threats like Javelin and Spike and APKWS.
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Aug 13, 2023 02:30
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TheDeadlyShoe posted:The worth of the tank really depends on how well the next generation of anti-missile systems work out in practice against threats like Javelin and Spike and APKWS. The Israelis tanks get shot at with modern Russian ATGM's fairly frequently so they get plenty of real world practical experience to work with and reference. Currently the best thing to do with a tank that has APS like that is to shoot at it with another tank since the APS can't stop high power cannon rounds. APS can be pretty drat good. The problem with it isn't the effectiveness with older or current ATGM's. The problem is the cost and weight which are pretty dang high and prohibitive for most countries right now which is why you don't see everyone using it everywhere. I think it adds around 5,000lbs to the Abrams and the initial price to refit it to a tank early on (back in 2017, it might be cheaper right now, not sure) was almost $1 million per tank. Thats why the focus now is on getting weight and cost down instead of trying to add new features to it.
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Aug 13, 2023 03:14
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TheDeadlyShoe posted:It's not that tanks stopped being a bulletproof box with guns on it. That's never gonna be useless. But are they an efficient weapon of war? hard to say at this point. Are they a dominant weapon of war? I really have my doubts. To put it another way, there's a lot of dumb things you can do that work just great if you have 5 times the budget of the other guy. Like maybe the US could have defeated Japan in WW2 even if the US only built battleships and not aircraft carriers. It still wouldn't have meant battleships were a good idea. What is the more cost-efficient alternative for getting a bunch of machine guns in well-prepared trenches and foxholes out of the way while infantry pushes through to the rear? Clearly it is not drones or artillery or the war would be over. And before you say aircraft, remember that the F35 program is expected to have a lifetime cost in the trillions of dollars, and that is assuming you can overcome all the SAM systems, which is not a given. As you said, tanks are not invincible, but they are very cost effective at their intended purpose. TheDeadlyShoe posted:The worth of the tank really depends on how well the next generation of anti-missile systems work out in practice against threats like Javelin and Spike and APKWS. Tanks have been almost continuously vulnerable to man-portable missile systems for the past 80 years (100 years if you count man-portable rifles), with the Javelin already more than 30 years old. If next generation anti-missile systems suddenly obviates the traditional weakness of the tank to infantry, then the tank would become probably more effective than at any point in history, but if not, then we simply continue with the status quo of the last century.
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Aug 13, 2023 03:28
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It sounds like drones have been showing as cheap and very effective in comparison at this point? For Ukraine at least.
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Aug 13, 2023 04:24
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TheDeadlyShoe posted:Then we have the armored counteroffensive by Ukraine, which has failed to substantially breach the Russian defensive belts. Some say this is because they aren't up to Western training standards - but the fact is that noone in the West has trained against or even really contemplated the problem of breaching successive kilometer-depth minefields while missiles rain down on you. They have thought about this problem, its just really hard and in the case of Ukraine, they have a severe lack of equipment. You need lots of firepower to suppress the enemy artillery so there aren't missiles and shells raining on you while you breach the line. The USA would be breaching this line with the help of literally hundreds of fighterbombers. Ukraine has shortages of artillery let alone aircraft.
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Aug 13, 2023 04:51
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notwithoutmyanus posted:It sounds like drones have been showing as cheap and very effective in comparison at this point? For Ukraine at least. Drones have been effective for both sides though it appears Ukraine has done a better job of using them than Russia so far. The problem with drones, especially the cheap ones you can get mass produced from China, is that they're easy to jam with EW. EW is also extremely cheap for how much area it can effect and its easy to keep it running in the field for long time periods from far behind defensive lines where its hard to get at. You typically have to either get artillery of some sort to fire on it or have helicopters or planes attack it to knock it out reliably. Drones with jam resistant communications can be made but they are big, heavy, expensive, have complicated logistics, and hard to produce and so won't be used the same way the current drones are. There's also lots and lots of anti drone weapons coming from everyone who has been watching the Ukraine war from the sidelines which neither Ukraine or Russia had at the start of the fighting in 2022 and even now still have shortages of. Basically this war, at least at the start of it in 2022, was kind've the perfect storm for drones to be at their most effective but other future wars probably aren't going to play out like this because everyone is watching and adapting as necessary. OctaMurk posted:The USA would be breaching this line with the help of literally hundreds of fighterbombers. Ukraine has shortages of artillery let alone aircraft. That is where some F16's or Gripens would've really come in handy. They wouldn't change the course of the war alone but they'd allow for much more effective defense of Ukrainian ground forces while they attack. Air power is a huge part of the CAS equation and neither side has been able to leverage it as well as they want due to the large amount of GBAD in Ukraine. PC LOAD LETTER fucked around with this message at 05:01 on Aug 13, 2023 |
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Aug 13, 2023 04:58
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If you need a new, paradigm-changing object on the battlefield, then it's time we finally started building an fielding mechs.
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Aug 13, 2023 10:08
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Put a different way, smoke makes it harder for a missile to figure out where it isn't.
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Aug 13, 2023 10:16
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Have we seen any confirmed or credible reports of damage to the bridge yet?
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Aug 13, 2023 10:48
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Cable Guy posted:Have we seen any confirmed or credible reports of damage to the bridge yet? No, seems likely the attack was intercepted or did minimal damage. Previously we have always had more details by this point but there's been no follow up at all that I can see.
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Aug 13, 2023 11:17
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On the subject of yesterday's attack, this popped up on my radar regarding one of the videos https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1690407041674747904
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Aug 13, 2023 11:47
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Warbadger posted:I would guess it's not as easy to jam as you'd think. There are counter-countermeasures for jamming and what works this week might not work next week, especially when you have things like inertial navigation and other sensors on board to aid in navigation. See the continued use of HIMARS on high value targets across the front lines where the primary countermeasure wasn't to completely shut down GPS guidance with cheap jammers... but to move stuff back out of HIMARS range. Where they are now getting hit by cruise missiles ALSO guided by GPS - and with enough precision that you can be pretty sure they're not relying on *just* inertial navigation. HIMARS has also been affected by GPS jamming. Now, you don't need pinpoint accuracy in many cases. If a 155mm shell lands 20 metres from a truck or pile of ammo crates or self propelled gun, it's still effective. And you can't protect every target all of the time. The EW units themselves are high value targets that get smitten time to time.
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Aug 13, 2023 12:04
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fuctifino posted:On the subject of yesterday's attack, this popped up on my radar regarding one of the videos Ah, really speed running the Nazi-regime there, Putin. Stuff like this reminds me of stories my stepfather told me about what his grandfather experienced back during the 1940's. His grandfather said he saw people complaining about Hitler and the war suddenly get dragged out of the local pub. In one case, some non-local suddenly stood up when he heard sarcastic remarks about the war, walked out, and ten minutes later the Gestapo marched in, walked straight to the one who had been talking, and took him away. the only difference I can still see is that this guy is still alive, not just gone
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Aug 13, 2023 12:05
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Nenonen posted:HIMARS has also been affected by GPS jamming. Now, you don't need pinpoint accuracy in many cases. If a 155mm shell lands 20 metres from a truck or pile of ammo crates or self propelled gun, it's still effective. And you can't protect every target all of the time. The EW units themselves are high value targets that get smitten time to time. This is probably the reason (one of them, at least), why Ukrainian forces are abusing our PzH 2000 howitzers so much: The things are hideously effective at what they do: Highly mobile, high rate of fire, high accuracy, higher range than Russian artillery. Thanks to their auto-loaders, they can put a lot of shells into the air and still be gone before counter-battery fire arrives. And they can't be jammed. Sadly, maintenance is a bitch. Last time I checked, there was a constant stream of PzH going back and forth between Germany and Ukraine: Damaged or worn-out howitzers going back for repair and repaired howitzers going back to the frontline. Considering Ukraine doesn't have that many of them in the first place, that's a fairly huge amount of usage from that one weapon system.
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Aug 13, 2023 12:12
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Libluini posted:Sadly, maintenance is a bitch. Last time I checked, there was a constant stream of PzH going back and forth between Germany and Ukraine: Damaged or worn-out howitzers going back for repair and repaired howitzers going back to the frontline. Considering Ukraine doesn't have that many of them in the first place, that's a fairly huge amount of usage from that one weapon system. I hope they're collaborating about improvements to the design to make it more maintainable over time.
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Aug 13, 2023 12:33
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Wibla posted:I hope they're collaborating about improvements to the design to make it more maintainable over time. I don't think neither KMW nor OTO have active lines to build new ones and apply that knowledge. It was a good product delivered too late in the peace dividend era so, after those minimum orders to keep inside the cancellation penalties, they pretty much end up production. SlowBloke fucked around with this message at 16:03 on Aug 13, 2023 |
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Aug 13, 2023 12:54
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Ultimately I hope that Rheinmetall works with Ukraine to build maintenance capacity inside Ukraine to make the logistics a little simpler.
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Aug 13, 2023 13:06
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