Yiggy posted:

My idiot's, non-lawyerly read is that the Florida case seems the most straight forward on the facts and the charge but the judge is dubious and so trust in outcome is low. Its contraband, it should be simple. And yet.

The DC case seems the most serious, with lots of evidence but it feels like there is more wiggle room on intent and that a jury is more spinnable in ways you'd hope against but know deep in your heart that people would disappoint. Also its a federal case. Both those federal cases feel vulnerable to the whole Trump winning the election thing. People quoting low probability to me is cold comfort, I gotta admit, but maybe thats the PTSD talking.

The Georgia case feels more serious in that they have audio recordings, and its less vulnerable to pardon because they're state charges. But I worry about the state legislature trying to gently caress with the DA somehow.

If I'm spreading out my hopes, I feel like the DC case might be the one with teeth but if Fani Willis avoids any sort of state legislature fuckery, her case might be the real one.

Oracle posted:

Pres can’t pardon state crimes but governors can and if you think Kemp is above such things heh.

Yiggy posted:

My idiot's, non-lawyerly read is that the Florida case seems the most straight forward on the facts and the charge but the judge is dubious and so trust in outcome is low. Its contraband, it should be simple. And yet.

The DC case seems the most serious, with lots of evidence but it feels like there is more wiggle room on intent and that a jury is more spinnable in ways you'd hope against but know deep in your heart that people would disappoint. Also its a federal case. Both those federal cases feel vulnerable to the whole Trump winning the election thing. People quoting low probability to me is cold comfort, I gotta admit, but maybe thats the PTSD talking.

The Georgia case feels more serious in that they have audio recordings, and its less vulnerable to pardon because they're state charges. But I worry about the state legislature trying to gently caress with the DA somehow.

If I'm spreading out my hopes, I feel like the DC case might be the one with teeth but if Fani Willis avoids any sort of state legislature fuckery, her case might be the real one.

gregday posted:

In GA the governor doesnt have that power.

quote:

In Georgia, the power to pardon is vested under the state constitution to a Board of Pardons and Paroles, which requires that a sentence be completed at least five years prior to applying for a pardon.

Oracle posted:

Well that's fascinating.

eke out posted:

i think if the georgia legislature or governor had any plans to interfere, they would've done it by now, as there's no going back and any possible action against willis looks 1000000x worse than it would've a month or a year ago (and it's not like they haven't had the power to gently caress with her for that entire time)

the lieutenant governor is down there testifying against trump tomorrow. they're just actually mad at him!

FizFashizzle posted:

Trump hosed over the state gop on two separate senate elections; favoring Loeffler over Collins, then pushing Walker on them.

They’re legit loving mad at him.

eke out posted:

yeah i know it's always tempting to try to figure out how the state party will help ol' donny wriggle out of this one, but georgia is the prime example of "these fuckers hate him because he has actively cost them power"

then of course he spent several years calling them democrats or whatever for not stealing the election for him

eke out posted:

yeah i know it's always tempting to try to figure out how the state party will help ol' donny wriggle out of this one, but georgia is the prime example of "these fuckers hate him because he has actively cost them power"

then of course he spent several years calling them democrats or whatever for not stealing the election for him

Dapper_Swindler posted:

yeah, i think if anything fucks him its georgia and or DC. the doccuments case while funny and probably strong, i feel like the judge will kid glove that one. plus florida.

Xiahou Dun posted:

Enh I’d categorize the Florida case as an experiment on what happens when a very biased judge meets a pretty airtight case.

Can Cannon thread the needle? She needs to basically win the case for Trump but without doing anything to get the 11th Circuit to yoink it away from her. Which is probably something a competent and skulldugerous judge could do, but Cannon isn’t really either. Her schemes have been pretty blatant so far.

Zwabu posted:

I think doing enough procedural things to delay resolution of the case until after the election will be a win for her and him.

Zwabu posted:

I think doing enough procedural things to delay resolution of the case until after the election will be a win for her and him.

Dapper_Swindler posted:

yeah, i think if anything fucks him its georgia and or DC. the doccuments case while funny and probably strong, i feel like the judge will kid glove that one. plus florida.

mdemone posted:

Georgia indictments coming this evening. Prepare your bodies.

Caros posted:

For context, they didn't close at 5 as scheduled, and all the witnesses scheduled to appear are already there. Chances are they just want to bang out the last hour or two.

Also fun fact, to get bail in Georgia you have to prove there is no risk of witness intimidation or obstruction. Which
, given trump did a witness intimidation on twitter should be a hard sell.

In a sensible world, anyway.

Ynglaur posted:

Does Georgia hate defendants? They seem to have a lot of things not in defendants' favor. IANAL.

Ynglaur posted:

Does Georgia hate defendants? They seem to have a lot of things not in defendants' favor. IANAL.

Zotix posted:

Cool that the strongest case gives ammo to the chuds by having a document leak on the court page early.

Caros posted:

Yeah that is fairly cringe. Doubly so since I'm sure they will come up with some lie about how they already indicted him before the grand jury signed off, even though the leak was just a list of what they were after.

gregday posted:

Xiahou Dun posted:

Enh I’d categorize the Florida case as an experiment on what happens when a very biased judge meets a pretty airtight case.

eke out posted:

her delays just signal other judges 'oh hey your calendar is still open for trial in 2024, nice'

FizFashizzle posted:

Trump hosed over the state gop on two separate senate elections; favoring Loeffler over Collins, then pushing Walker on them.

They’re legit loving mad at him.

XboxPants posted:

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1691219740847411201

“As Republicans we need to take our medicine and realize the election wasn’t rigged, Donald Trump was the worst candidate ever, in the history of our party … and now we are going to have to pivot from there.”

God drat.

XboxPants posted:

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1691219740847411201

“As Republicans we need to take our medicine and realize the election wasn’t rigged, Donald Trump was the worst candidate ever, in the history of our party … and now we are going to have to pivot from there.”

God drat.