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Sataere posted:It isn't just PFF that is garbage for advanced stats. Advanced stats in general are questionable for football. It is hard to isolate who is successful and who isn't in a sport that relies heavily on what the components around it are doing. I mean sorta, composite all in one stats don't work as a catch all for individual players really, but like Air Yards/ADoT or CPOE, or EPA are like all stats I use to evaluate players(and by players mostly QB's since most Advanced stats only work on QB's and Running backs for fairly obvious reasons) Like all analytics/numbers, they should be used as a backstop in a sanity check and or an "oh wait, why does this player who I didn't think that highly look better from an advanced stats" perspective. PFF's player grades are done by whatever number of analysts they have and is closer to the poo poo that an NFL scout might write after watching tape on a player/prospect to rank them than anything specifically like numbers based. Which like all Human interpretation based grading with incomplete knowledge is only so useful. Stats are what they are, useful for saying specifically at what that stat is quantifying and not much use outside of them. Most people should not give a poo poo about them, as generally just like watching games/tape and the box score will tell you what you need to know, unless you are a nerd who cares too much about this dumb poo poo(hey hi hello). Mostly, it's just extremely fun to look at Jimmy Garoppolo's Air Yards vs YAC stats
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Aug 15, 2023 18:06
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PYFPFF
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Aug 15, 2023 18:55
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Dexo posted:I mean sorta, composite all in one stats don't work as a catch all for individual players really, but like Air Yards/ADoT or CPOE, or EPA are like all stats I use to evaluate players(and by players mostly QB's since most Advanced stats only work on QB's and Running backs for fairly obvious reasons) See, I find aDoT and air yards to be problematic by themselves because they are still a function of how an offense is run. I think aDoT, air yards, and YAC all need to be evaluated together to get a true estimate of what a receiver is actually worth because different receivers have different playstyles, but they are all lumped in together. This is actually one of the projects I'm working on this offseason because it infuriates me when YAC guys get criticized for low aDoT's as if air yards are the be all / end all of an offense.
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Aug 15, 2023 19:24
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"Taking everything into account" is called the eye test.
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Aug 15, 2023 19:47
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Sataere posted:See, I find aDoT and air yards to be problematic by themselves because they are still a function of how an offense is run. I think aDoT, air yards, and YAC all need to be evaluated together to get a true estimate of what a receiver is actually worth because different receivers have different playstyles, but they are all lumped in together. This is actually one of the projects I'm working on this offseason because it infuriates me when YAC guys get criticized for low aDoT's as if air yards are the be all / end all of an offense. I mean Receivers shouldn't be criticized for their QB having a low adot or air yards on completion as they are the ones doing the work(well them and blockers maybe) lol. It is very useful information to know if you are let's say trying to figure out if a QB would be a good fit in a specific system or to start to discover if a QB is a product of their surrounding pieces(shout out to Shanahan). Like Mahomes last year on the chiefs I believe had the second or third highest YAC per completion contribution in the league(lol pretty sure Jimmy G and Goff were the other 2) but no one but the biggest haters would call him a noodle armed game manager. All these stats do is give you a better idea of how the team is playing and what they are actually doing in their own context. Anyone quoting stats without giving you context around the stat is someone who you should probably ignore. SKULL.GIF posted:"Taking everything into account" is called the eye test. The eye test and other human perspectives are still a very important part of any and all scouting and player prognostications. You should use any and all stats and human resources available to you when trying to get a picture of a player's worth. Dexo fucked around with this message at 19:52 on Aug 15, 2023 |
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Aug 15, 2023 19:49
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The air yards vs YAC stuff makes me wonder if there's a point where YAC being below a certain threshold correlates to increased games missed by receivers. Like if a QB is regularly making throws that get the needed yardage in the air, but put the receiver in danger (insert Febreeze's Austin Collie comic here) versus throwing it short to a receiver with room to run and actually defend themselves.
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Aug 15, 2023 20:04
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Blowjob Overtime posted:The air yards vs YAC stuff makes me wonder if there's a point where YAC being below a certain threshold correlates to increased games missed by receivers. Like if a QB is regularly making throws that get the needed yardage in the air, but put the receiver in danger (insert Febreeze's Austin Collie comic here) versus throwing it short to a receiver with room to run and actually defend themselves. There is so much that goes into this though. For example, if the defense blitzes a lot, a good offensive line will probably lead to receivers having a better YAC than those with a bad offensive line. How do you quantify that? There is so much that can potentially affect these stats, trying to tease out what affects what can be very tricky. I think the best way to put it is that stats can be indicative of certain trends, but are rarely prescriptive of them.
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Aug 15, 2023 20:16
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sweet geek swag posted:There is so much that goes into this though. For example, if the defense blitzes a lot, a good offensive line will probably lead to receivers having a better YAC than those with a bad offensive line. How do you quantify that? There is so much that can potentially affect these stats, trying to tease out what affects what can be very tricky. I think the best way to put it is that stats can be indicative of certain trends, but are rarely prescriptive of them. Oh for sure it's not going to be a straight line on a graph, just curious if there would be any correlation that could be considered statistically significant. Really not even as a decision making tool, just because it's fun to see when numbers can tell a story.
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Aug 15, 2023 20:39
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A low air yardage average could also be indicative of a very effective offense. Consistently getting 4-5 yards results in very long drives, which can be beneficial obviously.
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Aug 15, 2023 21:12
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advanced stats can't measure the importance of playing Bears Football or the curse on Soldier Field that ensures the team plays Bears Football
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Aug 15, 2023 21:15
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SirPablo posted:A low air yardage average could also be indicative of a very effective offense. Consistently getting 4-5 yards results in very long drives, which can be beneficial obviously. Shanahan offenses probably have lower air yards, but great YAC.
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Aug 15, 2023 21:41
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SirPablo posted:A low air yardage average could also be indicative of a very effective offense. Consistently getting 4-5 yards results in very long drives, which can be beneficial obviously. Basically the Saints offense for Brees waning years where he couldn’t throw deep anymore but he could still make quick reads and accurate short/midrange passes so the offense was still very efficient.
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Aug 15, 2023 21:53
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https://twitter.com/davebirkett/status/1691828172554162484?t=HSZoZYq3vqA_z0qteFWAjw&s=19
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Aug 16, 2023 16:10
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God, remember that one year in I think 2013 where like half the Packers roster had some sort of nagging hamstring injury? That was awful. Hope ARSB will be fine. He's fun to watch.
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Aug 16, 2023 16:17
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Can't miss the first six games due to a hamstring injury if you're already missing them due to a suspension. Checkmate, heteros. 
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Aug 16, 2023 16:25
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Hmm... the Jets OL is struggling badly........ https://twitter.com/AndyHermanNFL/status/1691844167171817544
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Aug 16, 2023 17:11
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MJeff posted:Can't miss the first six games due to a hamstring injury if you're already missing them due to a suspension. Checkmate, heteros. drat this life hack would go hard on tik toc
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Aug 16, 2023 17:55
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https://twitter.com/DetroitOnLion/status/1691852328251392308?t=kX6Fb_OHtCLJMRpD3OVTeg&s=19 bless this man
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Aug 16, 2023 18:02
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https://twitter.com/ByRyanWood/status/1691824639268249757?t=eWna4rBee27bKQcom_t4HA&s=19 Let's goooo Also Bill's right https://twitter.com/ByRyanWood/status/1691832750733414765?t=uia2f9tNtrEHcaFM7ckzRA&s=19
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Aug 16, 2023 18:06
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Hot Diggity! posted:https://twitter.com/ByRyanWood/status/1691824639268249757?t=eWna4rBee27bKQcom_t4HA&s=19 Surprised Bill would say this given their history on Special Teams
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Aug 16, 2023 18:21
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Sataere posted:Surprised Bill would say this given their history on Special Teams That's because he was talking about the offense Also we have pretty good special teams now because we have a good special teams coordinator
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Aug 16, 2023 18:32
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https://twitter.com/tylerherrick/status/1691860649754669188?s=46&t=m5J1AHu-B_BCiHxU6acSoQ
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Aug 16, 2023 18:34
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Hot Diggity! posted:Let's goooo Sul at free safety, Owens at strong. Jaire/Nixon/Valentine. I like it. Hot Diggity! posted:That's because he was talking about the offense Yeah the Packers weak point right now is defensive scheming. If Barry can put it together this team could contend, but I'm not getting excited until at least the first few regular games.
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Aug 16, 2023 18:40
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I'm so hyped about Musgrave https://twitter.com/Nate_Tice/status/1691906081075900793?t=kceLnj17u8A3xv45_EqB8Q&s=19
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Aug 16, 2023 21:30
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Also better angle of the Love2Watson bomb https://twitter.com/KuhnwaldMatt/status/1691885752618250399?t=fosUGbp8UnWo0Q3KU6FW8Q&s=19
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Aug 16, 2023 21:59
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Hot Diggity! posted:I'm so hyped about Musgrave Musgrave/Watson might be the fastest WR/TE pair in the league. I think only Pitts/London compares?
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Aug 16, 2023 22:02
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All this Jordan Love camp hype reminds me a lot of Mitch Trubisky camp hype
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Aug 16, 2023 23:26
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What about the Fields hype last week
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Aug 16, 2023 23:41
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That hype is real friend. Although I'm more into DJ Moore camp hype https://twitter.com/ChicagoBears/status/1691943249538150632 Seeing this after watching multiple games last season where Dante Pettis was WR1...water in a desert
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Aug 17, 2023 00:10
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https://twitter.com/Wi11DeWitt/status/1691957625770868773
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Aug 17, 2023 00:43
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Those deep connections would be cooler if I thought for one second he had a line that could protect him for more than, well, one second
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Aug 17, 2023 00:51
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HootTheOwl posted:Those deep connections would be cooler if I thought for one second he had a line that could protect him for more than, well, one second So I have been crunching numbers and this stat jumped out at me. Last season, Fields had 444 drop backs and 318 pass attempts. He did not attempt a pass in 28.4% of his drop backs.
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Aug 17, 2023 03:40
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Oh good, Kenny Clark has a back injury. 
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Aug 17, 2023 17:00
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SKULL.GIF posted:Oh good, Kenny Clark has a back injury. Probably minor. He's back at practice today.
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Aug 17, 2023 17:04
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Jameson Williams out the rest of preseason with a leg injury 
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Aug 17, 2023 17:47
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Acebuckeye13 posted:Jameson Williams out the rest of preseason with a leg injury At least he'll have plenty of time to recover
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Aug 17, 2023 18:08
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It's frustrating because the number one thing that everyone can agree on is that he needs reps, and preseason was going to be the time to do it. Now he's not going to see the field until October, and it's going to be harder for him to hit the ground running.
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Aug 17, 2023 18:13
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Sounding like there's a lot of shoving and minor fights today between the Packers-Patriots at joint practice. At least half a dozen separate incidents already. e: same old story under LaFleur... https://twitter.com/AndyHermanNFL/status/1692226346833883638 SKULL.GIF fucked around with this message at 18:29 on Aug 17, 2023 |
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Aug 17, 2023 18:18
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SKULL.GIF posted:Sounding like there's a lot of shoving and minor fights today between the Packers-Patriots at joint practice. I wonder who our fighty guys are now. Obviously Quay Walker made a (dipshit) name for himself last season for being fighty. I think the ultimate Packers fighty guy in the last 15 years was Cullen Jenkins, who seemed to constantly be bickering with his own teammates.
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Aug 17, 2023 18:33
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surf rock posted:I wonder who our fighty guys are now. Obviously Quay Walker made a (dipshit) name for himself last season for being fighty. This is the problem with the Packers drafting purely off RAS. Doesn't factor in the "DogInEm" metric.
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Aug 17, 2023 18:50
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