|
Main Paineframe posted:We're getting pretty deep into political philosophy at this point, though. What's more democratic? A system where the people can vote to overturn "one person, one vote" as easily as if it were a zoning ordinance, or one which holds "one person, one vote" as a protected rule the people aren't allowed to democratically vote away? Straightforwardly, the answer is the former, which is a more democratic system that is more unstable and self-destructive. There's a reason why absolute, pure, direct democracy isn't something that's normally practiced.
|
#
?
Aug 16, 2023 03:38
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 26, 2024 13:45 |
|
|
Realistically, the idea that "our system is democratic, democracy is great, you have power, and this is the best of all possible systems" is just as surely propaganda as the weird poo poo on the side of the road in North Korea. The system in every western world is not particularly democratic, direct democracy is a bad system, individuals have little power, and democracy is not an inherent guarantor of human rights and other such things that we cherish.
|
|
#
?
Aug 16, 2023 04:31
|
|
|
Just gotta kill time untill the AI Philosopher King is developed.
|
|
#
?
Aug 16, 2023 04:38
|
|
|
Gyges posted:Just gotta kill time untill the AI Philosopher King is developed. Skynet went online 26 years ago but evidently has still not become self-aware.
|
|
#
?
Aug 16, 2023 11:55
|
|
|
Personally I became self-aware around 27 or 28, let's give it a bit more time.
|
|
#
?
Aug 16, 2023 13:12
|
|
|
Gyges posted:Just gotta kill time untill the AI Philosopher King is developed.
|
|
#
?
Aug 16, 2023 14:52
|
|
|
Gyges posted:Just gotta kill time untill the AI Philosopher King is developed. Bad news, these models are being trained on content from the Internet.
|
|
#
?
Aug 16, 2023 15:28
|
|
|
This loving guy https://twitter.com/schwartzbcnbc/status/1691860406979948641?s=46&t=JBd6ZXmGQ3LmWL-ineTnAA quote:The fundraiser, Samuel Miele, last Sept. 26 allegedly sent a letter to Santos “in which he admitted to ‘faking my identity to a big donor,’ but stated that he was ‘high risk, high reward in everything I do,’ ” according to the indictment in U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of New York. That keep grinding mindset, ya know? Go big or go home?
|
|
#
?
Aug 16, 2023 18:42
|
|
|
FizFashizzle posted:This loving guy i find it strangely charming that the guy who only tells lies has a staff made up of massive liars. he knows his type
|
|
#
?
Aug 16, 2023 19:13
|
|
|
Well, it is pretty hard to imagine some honest, upstanding civil servant going to work in George Effin’ Santos’s office.
|
|
#
?
Aug 16, 2023 19:37
|
|
|
I'm just assuming you would learn to do the exact opposite of whatever they told you to do.
|
|
#
?
Aug 16, 2023 19:45
|
|
|
Kansas just announced that they have finished investigating the police raid on the local newspaper. - They found "insufficient evidence" to justify the raid. - They are asking that all items be returned. - Investigating the events that led to this raid being authorized. https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/kansas-prosecutor-finds-insufficient-evidence-support-police-raid-102319054 Just announced about 20 minutes ago, so just an AP blurb for now.
|
|
#
?
Aug 16, 2023 19:52
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/AaronBlake/status/1691778842250100911 The media willed "DeSantis is trumpism without Trump, he's gonna win" into existence and it's really gratifying that the American public recoiled in horror https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1691883737737257050
|
|
#
?
Aug 16, 2023 20:03
|
|
|
zoux posted:https://twitter.com/AaronBlake/status/1691778842250100911 Funny that it seems the 6 points DeSantis lost were split equally between Trump, the real article, and Vivek, who is trying to be even meaner than Donald to make up for the fact that he's not a white Christian.
|
|
#
?
Aug 16, 2023 20:14
|
|
|
Time for some Ramaswamentum
|
|
#
?
Aug 16, 2023 20:14
|
|
|
FlamingLiberal posted:Time for some Ramaswamentum Nah, wrap it up, Ramaswamyailures.
|
|
#
?
Aug 16, 2023 20:18
|
|
|
DeSantis going from 12 points behind Trump to 41 points behind Trump in 5 months is impressive, but still only the third biggest fall from grace in the GOP primary in the last few years. Rick Perry went from 35% in the polls and raising 3x as much money as every other candidate to dropping out before a single vote was cast in 4 months. Fred Thompson went from 38% of the vote to 4% in 3 months.
|
|
#
?
Aug 16, 2023 20:19
|
|
|
Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:DeSantis going from 12 points behind Trump to 41 points behind Trump in 5 months is impressive, but still only the third biggest fall from grace in the GOP primary in the last few years.
|
|
#
?
Aug 16, 2023 20:20
|
|
|
FlamingLiberal posted:I think the bigger question is how Perry and Thompson ever had that kind of support (feels like a polling outlier) Perry seemed vaguely human and competent compared to the lineup of Romney / Newt / Santorum / Ron Paul and then people actually experienced him and pretty much exactly what happened to Ron here did. Fred Thompson was an actor, so therefore he was Reagan, until he had to actually appeal to people and whoops.
|
|
#
?
Aug 16, 2023 20:28
|
|
|
FlamingLiberal posted:I think the bigger question is how Perry and Thompson ever had that kind of support (feels like a polling outlier) After Giuliani collapsed in 2008, there were a ton of huge swings (including McCain himself both surging and collapsing more than once) because basically everyone was unethusiastic or hostile to McCain, but they couldn't find the consensus "true conservative candidate." Mike Huckabee also polled around 35% at once point that year. To be fair, he also did win Iowa and 7 other states, so it wasn't a 100% flash in the pan. McCain, Romney, Huckabee, Giuliani, and Thompson all had double digit leads in polling at various times in the 2008 cycle. Nobody was running because they thought Rudy had it wrapped up, but his former pro-choice positions, 9/11 becoming less relevant, and the Iraq war becoming less popular ended up killing him. Then, there was a huge vacuum that a bunch of people jumped in on and everyone kept rocketing upwards and crashing for about 6 months until McCain ended up winning by default with ~35% of the vote.
|
|
#
?
Aug 16, 2023 20:31
|
|
|
Scott Walker, polls leader: *very slowly attempts blink both eyes at the same time, fails*
|
|
#
?
Aug 16, 2023 20:32
|
|
|
Perry’s flameout was funny but probably wouldn’t happen today, because nobody in the primary electorate would care about his obvious idiocy and the popularity boost from having a property called “N*****head” would’ve given him too much momentum for someone like Romney to overcome. He was very handsome in those glasses tho
|
|
#
?
Aug 16, 2023 20:32
|
|
|
For me, DeSantis' arc most resembles Bobby Jindal. Media-astroturfed candidate who was profoundly offputting and a terrible retail politician.
|
|
#
?
Aug 16, 2023 20:34
|
|
|
zoux posted:For me, DeSantis' arc most resembles Bobby Jindal. Media-astroturfed candidate who was profoundly offputting and a terrible retail politician. Bobby "Volcano Monitoring?" Jindal.
|
|
#
?
Aug 16, 2023 20:34
|
|
|
It's funny because the media propped up Jindal for reasons completely opposite of DeSantis: young, immigrant governor of a southern state to help the GOP compete in, as the GOP 2012 post mortem argued, a more diverse and liberal electorate. Then the GOP nominated the most relatively-racist candidate in US history and he won and so they propped up DeSantis because he's like Trump but without all the problems (the problems are why people like Trump, it turns out)
|
|
#
?
Aug 16, 2023 20:39
|
|
|
zoux posted:For me, DeSantis' arc most resembles Bobby Jindal. Media-astroturfed candidate who was profoundly offputting and a terrible retail politician.
|
|
#
?
Aug 16, 2023 20:45
|
|
|
Some hilarious anecdotes in this deep dive into DeSantis' campaign. One hilarious problem is that he needs Trump to get less popular among Republican primary voters, but every attack angle they polled would be very successful - until they added that the attack was about Trump - then, it would make people more angry at DeSantis. Which kind of explains his weird reluctance to criticize Trump at all. Also, everything that general election voters dislike about Trump is what causes the Republican primary to love Trump, so DeSantis' campaign both avoided attacking Trump and avoided casting himself as electable because they just... kind of hoped Trump would decide not to run or just fade away on his own. https://twitter.com/jdawsey1/status/1691895025959907563 quote:Go to YouTube, and you can still find the Ron DeSantis who got Republican donors and media so excited, just a year ago. A source familiar with the campaign described clips of DeSantis, usually at press conferences he gave as governor of Florida, that went viral in Republican circles. “A reporter comes in and asks a question, and he just rips their heart out,” the source said. The questions were often about DeSantis’s covid policies, and also sometimes about his aggressive stances against the teaching of race and gender topics in public schools or his perplexing war on Disney. In response, DeSantis generally took an impatient tone—the press, he seemed to suggest, was once again wasting everyone’s time. The source went on, “But those were situations where it was about Florida policies, which he knew like the back of his hand, where he could deploy his computer brain. And it was in front of a crowd that was going to applaud no matter what.” In every sense, the staffer said, “he was in total control of the situation.” quote:Since the 2020 election, Sarah Longwell, a Republican pollster closely affiliated with the Never Trump movement, has been conducting frequent focus groups with Republicans who voted twice for Trump. This past winter, Longwell told me, “We started having to screen groups for Trump favorability to find people who even wanted Trump to run again. I can’t tell you how dominant DeSantis was in that moment, and how clear people were that it was time to move on.” Former Trump voters, Longwell said, “were very DeSantis curious. They just thought Trump had too much baggage. But the way they talked about DeSantis, which I found interesting, was that they would talk about him relative to Trump. They would say, ‘He’s Trump without the baggage,’ or ‘He’s Trump with a new fight,’ or ‘He’s Trump not on steroids.’ That was one of my favorites.” quote:Even before its official launch, the campaign and its allies were conducting polls and focus groups to test various anti-Trump messages. Across several months, the source familiar with the campaign said that it consistently struggled to find a message critical of Trump that resonated with rank-and-file Republican voters. Even attaching Trump’s name to an otherwise effective message had a tendency to invert the results, this source said. If a moderator said that the covid lockdowns destroyed small businesses and facilitated the largest upward wealth transfer in modern American history, seventy per cent of the Republicans surveyed would agree. But, if the moderator said that Trump’s covid lockdowns destroyed small businesses and facilitated the largest upward wealth transfer in modern American history, the source said, seventy per cent would disagree. quote:In truth, a conservative run was a more natural fit for DeSantis. As DeSantis built his national brand, he had leaned heavily into a hard form of culture war: attacking Disney and pushing laws that curtailed the teaching of gender- and race-related topics. It would have been tricky for even the most adept politician to pivot from this to a moderate pitch of good governance and policy. The DeSantis campaign also seemed to lack Trump’s appeal to what the source familiar with the campaign called the “deep base instincts” of the Republican Party. Perhaps to compensate for this and to channel the right-wing id, the campaign associated itself with some envelope-pushing young activists and journalists. This backfired. One of them, Pedro Gonzalez, was revealed in June to have sent countless antisemitic messages through Telegram Messenger. (An example: “Not every Jew is problematic, but the sad fact is that most are.”) In July, a young DeSantis speechwriter, Nate Hochman, was fired after circulating a pro-DeSantis video that included a symbol, the Sonnenrad, that is common in Nazi imagery. The rival consultant told me, “I think that was a pretty good peek under the lid about what they’re obsessed with in Tallahassee. And it ain’t improving homeownership rates.” quote:For several years now, it’s been common to hear Republican consultants and pollsters say that Trump dominates among the Party’s conservative base because he is seen as a “fighter.” More than anyone else in the G.O.P. primary, DeSantis has a reputation for political aggression and a track record of conservative efficacy, but that doesn’t seem to have helped him. Perhaps this characterization of Trump is misleading. Is he really a fighter? He is a yeller, certainly, an expresser, a maker of big threats. He also wanders away from the fights he has started. To think that what Republican voters really want in a Presidential candidate is someone they can trust to complete the border wall may be a misunderstanding of the Party’s base. Trump has managed to always make politics gargantuan: it wasn’t about immigration but a civilizational struggle; it wasn’t about an election but democracy itself. “You have millions of Americans who are literally willing to die for Trump right now,” the source familiar with the DeSantis campaign told me, “and being, like, ‘He didn’t fire Fauci’ is not going to change their minds.” quote:In recent weeks, the campaign had taken note of an anti-Trump message that seemed likely to have some traction with Republican voters: a sixty-second spot, “John,” cut by a pac. In it, a middle-aged man, seated on the steps of a suburban home and speaking calmly to the camera, says that he loves Donald Trump and saw him as a “breath of fresh air,” but that this got him disinvited from his sister’s for Thanksgiving. “The drama . . . he’s got so many distractions, the constant fighting, there’s something every day,” John says. “And I’m not sure he can focus on moving the country forward.” The country is heading in the wrong direction, he adds, “and we definitely need somebody that can freakin’ win. I think you probably lose that bet if you voted for Trump.”
|
|
#
?
Aug 16, 2023 20:51
|
|
|
Not exactly new issues for Desantis - from Politico in early 2020 (one of their most tiger beaty pieces)quote:DeSantis loyalists acknowledge that even in 2018, in the midst of a messy primary fight, they were aware of their candidate’s higher aspirations—and the long-term work required to mold a gaffe-prone congressman with a notable lack of people skills into the national candidate he already thought he was. quote:But DeSantis’ success with Adelson is a conspicuous exception in his fundraising. He is notorious for his poor skills tending to the run-of-the-mill millionaires who populate the national fundraising circuit. Multiple people who spoke to POLITICO said DeSantis lacks what is known in campaign parlance as “donor maintenance”—knowing something about your donors, calling them on their birthdays, sending them a note when their kid graduates from college. quote:“Only thing I’ve heard the president say is that he is greedy,” said a Republican consultant familiar with both men. “We have tried to tell him he’s the governor, it’s a governor’s job to be greedy for their state.”
|
|
#
?
Aug 16, 2023 20:52
|
|
|
FlamingLiberal posted:I was thinking Kamala Harris. Candidate with a ton of money but just terrible at basic politicking I mean there are a lot of successful politicians that are terrible at the personal touch. There's something uncanny valley-like to Jindal and DeSantis. I remember his rebuttal to one of Obama's SotUs "Americaaans caaan do aaaaanything" I was like, this dude has no juice.
|
|
#
?
Aug 16, 2023 20:52
|
|
|
Mellow Seas posted:Perry’s flameout was funny but probably wouldn’t happen today, because nobody in the primary electorate would care about his obvious idiocy and the popularity boost from having a property called “N*****head” would’ve given him too much momentum for someone like Romney to overcome. If we're reminiscing about Perry my two favorite moments were the debates when he said he's abolish 3 departments and absolutely could not remember the third- and then also his campaign ad walking gently by a lake while he's talking about gay kids like they're the Taliban.
|
|
#
?
Aug 16, 2023 20:56
|
|
|
I don't really get why people thought that DeSantis would be "Trump without the baggage", as if non-conservatives dislike Trump for purely personal reasons. Like, since 2020, DeSantis has essentially made his public persona "hi there I'm here to take over the government, replace everyone in power with my yes-men, and get rid of those pesky minority rights", do they think that just because he doesn't do Trump Twitter Antics that liberals might give him a shot?
|
|
#
?
Aug 16, 2023 21:00
|
|
|
Crunch Buttsteak posted:I don't really get why people thought that DeSantis would be "Trump without the baggage", as if non-conservatives dislike Trump for purely personal reasons. Like, since 2020, DeSantis has essentially made his public persona "hi there I'm here to take over the government, replace everyone in power with my yes-men, and get rid of those pesky minority rights", do they think that just because he doesn't do Trump Twitter Antics that liberals might give him a shot? No one thought liberals would give him a shot, they thought nevertrumpers and squishy decorum enthusiasts to the right of center would give him a shot
|
|
#
?
Aug 16, 2023 21:01
|
|
|
Crunch Buttsteak posted:I don't really get why people thought that DeSantis would be "Trump without the baggage", as if non-conservatives dislike Trump for purely personal reasons. Like, since 2020, DeSantis has essentially made his public persona "hi there I'm here to take over the government, replace everyone in power with my yes-men, and get rid of those pesky minority rights", do they think that just because he doesn't do Trump Twitter Antics that liberals might give him a shot? The argument was that moderate voters in suburbs, who have gone from R+20 to D+4 in 20 years, who are high-education and high-income might be more open to Republican economic messages and fears about raising taxes, but think that Trump is too openly racist and publicly stupid to support, would come home to a more appealing Republican candidate. There's pretty significant data that shows that about 1/10 voters make their decisions about candidates based on personal likeability as well. 10% of voters is more than enough to swing a Presidential election. Also, having someone inoffensive on the ballot would not motivate Democratic voters to come out as much. It wasn't about convincing liberals to support Trump.
|
|
#
?
Aug 16, 2023 21:04
|
|
|
Yeah I guess I should have used "moderates" instead of "liberals" but I'm still stuck in "THIS is your guy?!" mode. But I am focusing too much thought on the general election. There's still over a year to go. I'm already so tired.
|
|
#
?
Aug 16, 2023 21:10
|
|
|
The problem with the GOP is that the primary message they put out is insane social warfare poo poo that is extremely online. They could make headway with economic stuff but they are too busy whining about ‘groomers’ and ‘the woke mind virus’.
|
|
#
?
Aug 16, 2023 21:12
|
|
|
I think that they've shattered norms around campaigning and political incentives that you couldn't win a GOP primary on policy. They like politics as entertainment and DeSantis is utterly without rizz. In that NYT/Maris poll last month the top line of mid-50s to mid-teens was identical to the percentage of GOP voters who considered Trump more "fun" than Ron.
|
|
#
?
Aug 16, 2023 21:14
|
|
|
Personally I’m convinced that DeSantis is simply running for heir-apparent. Maybe Trump burns out, maybe he loses and fucks off, or maybe he wins and doesn’t seek a third term - either way, DeSantis is in the public eye as first among also-rans. And in the meantime he can continue treating Florida as his personal fiefdom. It’s fairly win-win unless he strongly offends Trump by publicly running against him. To my mind, it’s the only thing that really explains his actions.
|
|
#
?
Aug 16, 2023 21:16
|
|
|
zoux posted:I think that they've shattered norms around campaigning and political incentives that you couldn't win a GOP primary on policy. They like politics as entertainment and DeSantis is utterly without rizz. In that NYT/Maris poll last month the top line of mid-50s to mid-teens was identical to the percentage of GOP voters who considered Trump more "fun" than Ron.
|
|
#
?
Aug 16, 2023 21:16
|
|
|
FlamingLiberal posted:The problem with the GOP is that the primary message they put out is insane social warfare poo poo that is extremely online. They could make headway with economic stuff but they are too busy whining about ‘groomers’ and ‘the woke mind virus’. "Insane social warfare poo poo" has 40% to 70% approval depending on the issue. It is far more popular than their economic policies that have 25% to 35% approval. That is why they always lead with "insane social warfare poo poo" and keep the economic policy talk to just vaguely popular things like, "cut taxes" and "reduce fraud and waste."
|
|
#
?
Aug 16, 2023 21:18
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 26, 2024 13:45 |
|
|
Kaal posted:Personally I’m convinced that DeSantis is simply running for heir-apparent. Maybe Trump burns out, maybe he loses and fucks off, or maybe he wins and doesn’t seek a third term - either way, DeSantis is in the public eye as first among also-rans. And in the meantime he can continue treating Florida as his personal fiefdom. It’s fairly win-win unless he strongly offends Trump by publicly running against him. To my mind, it’s the only thing that really explains his actions.
|
|
#
?
Aug 16, 2023 21:18
|
|