(Thread IKs:
fatherboxx)
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MikeC posted:Which is why when there were plenty of Ukrainians there to greet the AFU as liberators in the Kharkiv region and in Kherson why they rolled through those areas in the bottom half of 2022? Are deportations happening? Yes. Are they on the genocidal scale of a "final solution?" Probably not quite there yet, even Ukrainian territory is still held by the Russians. I mean you can't have Putin photo ops with Mariupol residents if they are all in the gulags can you? Oh, so it's only partly genocide. Good, thanks for keeping us up to date with the Accugenocide Forecast. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Aug 16, 2023 05:18
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Vincent Van Goatse posted:In other words it's only 99.(44/100)% genocide. Show your work please.
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Aug 16, 2023 05:19
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Come on man, there are official definitions for this stuff, you can't just keep moving the goalposts by saying it's not genocide until it's performed on literally everyone
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Aug 16, 2023 05:23
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How is what I did to you theft, you still have a bunch of money left!!!
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Aug 16, 2023 05:26
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Edit: Nevermind, forget arguing with morons. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Aug 16, 2023 05:33
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There's a good chance I may have committed some light genocide
Name Change fucked around with this message at 07:23 on Aug 16, 2023 |
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Aug 16, 2023 05:45
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Name Change posted:There's a good chance I may committed some light genocide It's called sparkling genocide
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Aug 16, 2023 06:01
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The neofascist support crew has been very focused on whether it can be absolutely proven, that russias intent is actually genocide. Otherwise, *pushes glasses up on nose*: “technically, it’s doesn’t count…”. Otherwise it doesn’t count. Also, you can’t count putins genocidal rhetoric. That’s just political theatre he has to do. Doesn’t count for establishing intent. It’s also why it’s ‘okay’ to make fun of the holdomor. It’s hard to prove that stalin intended genocide. The soviets definitely caused it and stalin definitely knew about it and definitely continued to let it happen and definitely tried to cover it up. But genocide? “Well. Technically…”.
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Aug 16, 2023 06:28
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quote:You should use the term genocide and its adjectives more sparingly or they will lose meaning. War crimes like stealing of children are being committed by the Russians but Ukrainians are not being wholesale carted off en masse into concentration camps or relocated to Siberia like in the days of Uncle Joe. The legal definitions in international law don't require a "wholesale" population relocation to qualify as genocide. capitalcomma fucked around with this message at 07:32 on Aug 16, 2023 |
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Aug 16, 2023 07:03
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MikeC posted:But this is a barrier to peace and no truce, peace deal, or treaty will paper over that fact unless one side or another gains total military victory which seems rather unlikely. Until Putin and the Russians give up on the dream of empire or the Ukrainians give up the dream of true independence, the shooting will continue and any stoppage in fighting will be temporary. I'm willing to just not touch the genocide or morality arguments for now because  , but let's focus on the realist (I am not sure if that is the correct IR term here, sorry!) interpretation of this conflict, and work from your stated premise that someone has to "lose face", or back down from their primary aims in this conflict. Let's say, just to humour me, that Russia's European neighbours would prefer it if it were Russia who lost face. What do you propose would be a desired course of action for said neighbouring states? Continue supporting Ukraine despite the alluded-to manpower issues, or try to force Zelenskyy's regime to make some kind of peace offer that Russia could accept?It seems to me that the latter proposition isn't acceptable, again working under the assumption that Russia's European neighbours see Russia's imperialism as undesirable. It's fine and well for us who are not in the actual war zone to argue semantics about causes of war vs. reasons for pursuing a war and how sensible they might or might not be, but isn't the realist position here that the rest of let's say eastern Europe is fairly rigidly committed to an attempt to stop Russia's imperialist, violent tendencies from purely self-preservatory motivations? This is not a moralistic argument, I would say, but simply a foreign policy one (I won't say "game theory" for fear of that particular derail), since the eastern European regimes we're talking about here certainly remember, in one form or another, what an imperialist Russia did in the previous century. edited a bit for clarity Rappaport fucked around with this message at 10:04 on Aug 16, 2023 |
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Aug 16, 2023 09:31
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Let's not indulge the realist perspective at all, please. It's a bunch of outdated bullshit that should not be spread around. Also there are no "regimes" involved in this genocidal war of conquest wagered by an imperialist dictator Ukraine is defending itself from. The war can end anytime Russia wills it, they just need to go home. The only forseeable way to force that is attrition or massive changes at the top in Russia. That's why we should support Ukraine with means to inflict the former until the latter happens.
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Aug 16, 2023 10:03
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Kikas posted:Also there are no "regimes" involved in this genocidal war of conquest wagered by an imperialist dictator Ukraine is defending itself from. The war can end anytime Russia wills it, they just need to go home. The only forseeable way to force that is attrition or massive changes at the top in Russia. That's why we should support Ukraine with means to inflict the former until the latter happens. I edited my post a bit to make my meaning clearer, I didn't mean regimes as in Ukraine and Russia but the European states providing assistance. I apologize for wording it so badly 
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Aug 16, 2023 10:05
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Orthanc6 posted:That's a coin flip for the US. If Biden wins the US will keep supporting Ukraine for a while. Just look at how unpopular the wars in the Middle East became, yet continued to grind on in spite of public opinion. The US public currently supports Ukraine a lot more, and it's a very different kind of war which notably isn't costing American lives (ignoring volunteers, the US government didn't order them there). So if Biden wins it seems very likely support will continue for at least another 4 years unless Ukraine collapses. Why are we comparing this to our wars in the middle east? We have no boots on the ground and supporting Ukraine costs basically peanuts
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Aug 16, 2023 10:18
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MikeC posted:I mean you can't have Putin photo ops with Mariupol residents if they are all in the gulags can you? The people doing the photo ops are Russian colonists.
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Aug 16, 2023 10:24
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MikeC posted:Are deportations happening? Yes. Are they on the genocidal scale of a "final solution?" Probably not quite there yet, even Ukrainian territory is still held by the Russians. I mean you can't have Putin photo ops with Mariupol residents if they are all in the gulags can you? I dont think "it is not genocide if there are some people left" is a line of reasoning you'd want to pursue seriously.
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Aug 16, 2023 10:30
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MikeC posted:It is like right in the article explain in your own words why you support genocides
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Aug 16, 2023 10:30
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MikeC posted:It is like right in the article Oh MikeC finally went full mask off huh (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Aug 16, 2023 10:33
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The only countries involved in any peace talks should be Ukraine and Russia, and supporting countries should be used as arguments for peace, not mouthpieces or "big bro EU/USA/NATO came to argue in my name" type of tactics. Long term peace will require significant military force in Ukraine as we cannot count on Russia to respect any treaties they will sign without a deterrent of that kind. Of course, a change at the top may change that. But I seriously doubt it, I can see the successor of the succesor of Putin maybe be able to work some kind of an actual peace deal, assuming the actual successor would try to improve the country, not his own wealth. EDIT: wow I cooked this one too long, pretend it's right after my other post
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Aug 16, 2023 10:36
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beer_war posted:The people doing the photo ops are Russian colonists. Not true
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Aug 16, 2023 10:36
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You are probably right, but that isn't very helpful. Can you expand on that? 
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Aug 16, 2023 10:46
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Captain Oblivious posted:Oh MikeC finally went full mask off huh Yep, another one to the ignore list... moving on. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Aug 16, 2023 10:57
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beer_war posted:You are probably right, but that isn't very helpful. Can you expand on that? https://t.me/svobodnieslova/1617 By quick googling of that news issue at least one person from that publicized visit was confirmed via social network photos to be an actual Mariupol inhabitant. By how the other people look there I dont have doubts that they were just properly screened people from Mariupol proper and not settlers or FSO agents. I believe it is on you to provide evidence that the people from that publicized visit are "colonists".
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Aug 16, 2023 10:59
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You are right, claim withdrawn.
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Aug 16, 2023 11:01
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MikeC posted:
Your formulation of what it will take for peace left out some options. Russia could hang on to its imperial ambitions but get defeated, and let’s hope that’s what happens if they aren’t willing to give in. This is just another in the long line of episodes where one country invaded another and shouldn’t have (just like when America does it).
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Aug 16, 2023 11:07
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The idea of Russia 'collapsing' has come up a few times in this thread. Rather than consider a collapse of the government, let's consider its 'sphere of influence' collapsing. Russia, just like the US, and many other countries, influences politics beyond its borders in an outsized way compared to other weak states. Where can we see this sphere of influence at work? My favorites are Belarus, Transnistria, and Kazakhstan. North Africa is another one to consider. The Belarusian regime appears to be on the brink right now. Maybe that's why Wagner is going there: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rail_war_in_Belarus_(2022%E2%80%93present) Transistria appears to be heating up too: https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/od...J_jOJAIw.YjCYwm Kazakhstan has been moving away from Russia since thing whole thing started. When the Wagner thing happened, Kazakhstan said "this is ur problem, buddy" It's hard to tell what is happening in Africa exactly, but this is in the news. https://www.aol.com/allies-niger-president-overthrown-military-050007447.html Russia's whole sphere of influence is heating up right now, and it sure doesn't look like it's going to expand. How much will it collapse and how much will other, stronger states be able to abuse it? Only Tom Clancy knows.
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Aug 16, 2023 11:18
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Chill Monster posted:The Belarusian regime appears to be on the brink right now. Maybe that's why Wagner is going there: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rail_war_in_Belarus_(2022%E2%80%93present) On the brink of what exactly? The partisan activity winded down way before Wagner invitation and, honestly, wasn't really significant (except for that attack on big reconnaissance plane). A lot of Russian neighbours, especially in Asia, while distancing from giving Putin political support, happily participate in grey import deals because of financial incentive.
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Aug 16, 2023 11:25
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The Artificial Kid posted:Cheerleaders for what, the concept of respect for sovereignty, national self determination and collective security? Cheerleaders: I believe he's referring to posters in the thread who reflexively pounce on anyone that dares make a post that could potentially make Ukraine looks anything less than perfect. His analysis is spot on though. This conflict is about Russia trying to maintain / regain its sphere of influence and the Ukraine is trying to remove itself from Russian ties and move closer to the west. Even if the best case scenario happen (bullet in Putin's head) the next guy in charge will feel compelled to do whatever he can to hold the former empire together, including invading his neighbors. The cheerleaders keep asking some form of "What could have Ukraine done to prevent this?" as some form of bait to spring their trap and ferret out Putin supporters. The answer to that one is actually really straightforward. Don't give up your Nukes, ever.
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Aug 16, 2023 11:27
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fatherboxx posted:On the brink of what exactly? The partisan activity winded down way before Wagner invitation and, honestly, wasn't really significant (except for that attack on big reconnaissance plane). On the brink of regime change. Sorry for not specifying. are you sure it's not just underreported? the scale of the railway sabotage only became apparent after the fact. Why would Wagner be going there instead of some fiefdom in Africa?
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Aug 16, 2023 11:28
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Chill Monster posted:On the brink of regime change. Sorry for not specifying.
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Aug 16, 2023 11:29
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Chill Monster posted:On the brink of regime change. Sorry for not specifying. The destroyed railways are just out frame, laughing Belarus provides a somewhat deniable base to prepare for future operations in Africa and, kinda, a place for exile. Syria would be more logical in African context but it would just provoke a new conflict with Russian MOD who operate there. Plus Russian propaganda can do regular psyops about incursions into Poland (not actually happening).
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Aug 16, 2023 11:36
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daslog posted:His analysis is spot on though. This conflict is about Russia trying to maintain / regain its sphere of influence and the Ukraine is trying to remove itself from Russian ties and move closer to the west. Even if the best case scenario happen (bullet in Putin's head) the next guy in charge will feel compelled to do whatever he can to hold the former empire together, including invading his neighbors. Too bad NATO actually expanded thanks to Putin's actions, gonna be even harder to expand their totally legitimate and not at all horrible imperial desires now. Sad trombone sounds all around. The point is, no government in Europe* wants an imperialist-aimed, war-faring and genocidal Russia next door. I was pleasantly surprised at how unified this response was this time around, and how threatening German grannies with freezing to death didn't deter a joint European response to aiding a nation being invaded. *I guess the Russian puppet states don't count, but the entire point for the rest of Europe outside Ukraine and Russian puppets is to minimize Russia's ability to further their ability in creating puppets and annexing territories, so 
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Aug 16, 2023 11:45
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fatherboxx posted:The destroyed railways are just out frame, laughing Sure, the train tracks may not be getting blown up anymore, but that's no longer useful for undermining the Russian/Belarusian government. I've seen no evidence that the anti-government sentiment has gone anywhere. Sources like The World Bank rank Belarus extremely low stability. This is pure speculative Clancy chat, but if I was the Machiavellian Polish King, and I hated Russia, I would want to destabilize/promote regime change in Belarus as much as possible, and keep it as quiet as possible. I can't deny the deniability/proximity are good reasons in themselves Chill Monster fucked around with this message at 11:54 on Aug 16, 2023 |
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Aug 16, 2023 11:48
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Rappaport posted:Too bad NATO actually expanded thanks to Putin's actions, gonna be even harder to expand their totally legitimate and not at all horrible imperial desires now. Sad trombone sounds all around. Europe will need to maintain that level of unity for pretty much forever, because I can't see Russia playing nice in the sandbox anytime soon (or ever). Edit: fixed capitalization mistake daslog fucked around with this message at 13:14 on Aug 16, 2023 |
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Aug 16, 2023 12:52
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MikeC posted:Which is why when there were plenty of Ukrainians there to greet the AFU as liberators in the Kharkiv region and in Kherson why they rolled through those areas in the bottom half of 2022? Are deportations happening? Yes. Are they on the genocidal scale of a "final solution?" Probably not quite there yet, even Ukrainian territory is still held by the Russians. I mean you can't have Putin photo ops with Mariupol residents if they are all in the gulags can you? What makes you consider the Holocaust some sort of barometer of genocide?
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Aug 16, 2023 12:56
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Speaking of sphere of influence, here is a great thread of trade diversion. https://twitter.com/RobinBrooksIIF/status/1691442973144223744 quote:1. Our trade diversion algorithm looks at 24 countries. Direct exports to Russia (red) are down for most western countries. Trade diversion via Central Asia provides only a small offset (blue), but there's exceptions. And here is Finland and Baltics in isolation. Despite leading every anti-Russia effort politically and in public statements, only Finland seems to adhere to sanction/trade restriction compliance in practice https://twitter.com/RobinBrooksIIF/status/1691438316590075904 
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Aug 16, 2023 12:57
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Raenir Salazar posted:
You may have missed the context of the question because it was on the previous page. I was asking a specific poster what his opinion was and they answered.
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Aug 16, 2023 12:58
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daslog posted:Europe will need to maintain that level of Unity for pretty much forever, because I can't see Russia playing nice in the sandbox anytime soon (or ever). Forever is a long time. Capitalizing random nouns is a thing in some languages, but I assume you are not calling all eastern Europeans super mutants in want of a Master. So what is the point of this post? I cannot legitimately tell what you are arguing or positing here. Could you enlighten me?
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Aug 16, 2023 13:01
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Chill Monster posted:Sure, the train tracks may not be getting blown up anymore, but that's no longer useful for undermining the Russian/Belarusian government. I've seen no evidence that the anti-government sentiment has gone anywhere. Sources like The World Bank rank Belarus extremely low stability. Unfortunately, all Polish governments have ever destabilized is themselves. Including the current one. We're quite good at that  I also think Luka is very unlikely to ever turn coat. He can stutter and delay when it is convenient, but he is not only a puppet of Putin, he is a firm believer in his ideology, extending beyond how to run a country.So make that two regime changes. Rappaport posted:The point is, no government in Europe* wants an imperialist-aimed, war-faring and genocidal Russia next door. I was pleasantly surprised at how unified this response was this time around, and how threatening German grannies with freezing to death didn't deter a joint European response to aiding a nation being invaded. Gotta convince Latvia to finally help us annex and divide Kaliningrad then. Because as of now, Russia is at the border of NATO and has been since Poland joined the coalition. But since nothing is happening there, and even Putin is too smart to try something stupid like move troops through the Baltic, Kaliningrad (sorry, Królewiec as we went back to calling it) and Belarus, noone talks about that.
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Aug 16, 2023 13:04
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fatherboxx posted:Speaking of sphere of influence, here is a great thread of trade diversion. "Businesses are obviously looking for ways to get their products to customers in Russia." Which is a crime that ought to put some executives in jail.
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Aug 16, 2023 13:04
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OddObserver posted:"Businesses are obviously looking for ways to get their products to customers in Russia." Not every category of goods (especially consumer goods) is under direct sanctions, in practice it is just reorienting logistics to dodge reputational risks. Kikas posted:Kaliningrad (sorry, Królewiec as we went back to calling it) That will teach them, Putin is shaking fatherboxx fucked around with this message at 13:11 on Aug 16, 2023 |
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Aug 16, 2023 13:08
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