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(Thread IKs: fatherboxx)
 
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GSV Fuck Your God
Aug 27, 2003

small-l liberalism

Cpt_Obvious posted:

This is literally what happened.

As a matter of practice, the ethical concerns of killing a few civilians pretty much vanish in the course of defending yourself in a war of national survival. Tough break for that guy. Oh well.

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

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Kraftwerk
Aug 13, 2011
i do not have 10,000 bircoins, please stop asking

lilljonas posted:

The difference is mainly (except for more planes = more better) is that a small fleet of F-16 means they can now use NATO produced missiles of various types that their MIGs were not compatible with. So both more missiles = more better, but also new types of anti-radar missiles, longer range anti-air missiles etc. So this is bad news for Russia’s air force.

The Russians are using super long range heavy missiles (R-33 or R-40 if I recall) designed for shooting down bombers and AWACS from beyond the range of fighter cover. These missiles aren’t as effective as smaller ones they have like their active guided missiles for fighter aircraft. Nevertheless the tactic they’re using is to linger outside UAF anti air range lobbing these missiles at Ukrainian aircraft to disrupt their activities and keep them on the defensive. They have plenty of these due to Cold War stockpiles and it suppresses the Ukrainian airforce.

There’s nothing the F-16 has in terms of its radar or missile complement that can let F-16s get close enough to engage these Russian jets and thus their use is pretty limited. All this complement of F-16s does is improve Ukrainian air defence and allows them to engage a few targets of opportunity close to the front. But it doesn’t level the playing field in any meaningful way.

Dandywalken
Feb 11, 2014

It depends on what weapons they are given imo. Standoff stuff could be very useful. But for Air to air, yeah they are disadvantaged

Djarum
Apr 1, 2004

by vyelkin

lilljonas posted:

Ukraine getting F-16s from Netherlands and Denmark:

https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-zelenskyy-netherlands-f16-9252de3ad10357a41212262c560874aa

Swedish news says 42 planes from Netherlands, yet unknown about Denmark. That’s… pretty nice.

I posted this a couple days ago and it went completely ignored for more bridge chat.

It’s a good development that this is all handled now. There is speculation that Ukraine might have the airframes before the winter which is huge.

Warbadger
Jun 17, 2006

Owling Howl posted:

It's my impression that the usefulnes is mainly in longer range ground attack systems to supplement HIMARS and add some capability in range and payload - not going after Russian planes.

Realistically there is no way the F-16's primary role will be air defense for the simple reason that due to effective employment of Ukrainian air defenses and a lack of overall capability in the Russian airforce to overcome it, the Russian airforce has already been mostly relegated to trucking around standoff munitions from safety a hundred plus kilometers behind the front lines. Generally speaking there just isn't a lot needing to be shot down these days. What they'll primarily be doing is lobbing precision munitions at ground targets, including Russian air defenses from low altitude or long range. They can do this better than the 80's era Su-24's and MiG-29's the Ukrainians are using now both because they're more modern platforms (and designed for exactly that sort of mission against exactly that sort of threat) and because they can fully employ a huge range of NATO missiles and precision bombs designed for exactly the sorts of missions Ukraine needs to do. Missions like hitting air defenses operating cautiously along the front lines or throwing a whole lot of boom at a bridge or bunker in ways something like HIMARS cannot.

But they'll also be a greater threat to Russian aircraft, supplementing ground based air defenses and making the types of sorties Russia is still able to conduct at low altitude more dangerous. If only because a radar in the air can see things a radar on the ground cannot, and a self contained supersonic anti-aircraft missile launch platform can respond to threats across a large front faster than a set of trailers being towed behind trucks.

Warbadger fucked around with this message at 16:27 on Aug 20, 2023

TheDeadlyShoe
Feb 14, 2014

The F-16s are useful but frankly if theres anyone that could use f-35s right now its Ukraine.

Warbadger posted:

Realistically there is no way the F-16's primary role will be air defense for the simple reason that due to effective employment of Ukrainian air defenses and a lack of overall capability in the Russian airforce to overcome it, the Russian airforce has already been mostly relegated to trucking around standoff munitions from safety a hundred plus kilometers behind the front lines. What they'll primarily be doing is lobbing precision munitions at ground targets, including Russian air defenses. They can do this better than the 80's era Su-24's and MiG-29's the Ukrainians have both because they're more modern platforms designed for exactly that sort of mission against exactly that sort of threat and because they can fully employ a huge range of NATO missiles and precision bombs designed to do the same.

But they'll also be a greater threat to Russian aircraft, supplementing ground based air defenses and making the types of sorties Russia is still able to conduct at low altitude more dangerous.

F-16s are important for air defense because the ongoing missile bombardments have attrited Ukrainian SAM stockpiles. Better air-to-air coverage means more assets can be used to shoot down missiles, and maintaining anti-air coverage of non-critical areas is much less important.

TheDeadlyShoe fucked around with this message at 16:23 on Aug 20, 2023

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009
Ukrainian air defense is likely very low on missiles. (The Western donated systems are good, but are in far too low numbers to cover an appreciable part of the country)

Zhanism
Apr 1, 2005
Death by Zhanism. So Judged.

OddObserver posted:

Ukrainian air defense is likely very low on missiles. (The Western donated systems are good, but are in far too low numbers to cover an appreciable part of the country)

Sheer speculation. An air defense doesn’t have to shoot down every enemy airplane or missile. If the air over Ukraine was permissible for the Russians, they would be utilizing it. Not lobbing misses from across the border and having attack choppers regularly hit down.

TheDeadlyShoe
Feb 14, 2014

Zhanism posted:

Sheer speculation. An air defense doesn’t have to shoot down every enemy airplane or missile. If the air over Ukraine was permissible for the Russians, they would be utilizing it. Not lobbing misses from across the border and having attack choppers regularly hit down.

It's not that their air defense is incapable of operating. It's that to maintain credible air defense, there's a strict limit on the assets they can allocate to and expend on anti-missile work.

lilljonas
May 6, 2007

We got crabs? We got crabs!

Djarum posted:

I posted this a couple days ago and it went completely ignored for more bridge chat.

It’s a good development that this is all handled now. There is speculation that Ukraine might have the airframes before the winter which is huge.

It was confirmed a few days that US greenlighted other countries to send f-16s. This is Ukraine saying that they have a deal with Netherlands and Denmark and planes will actually be sent.

Owling Howl
Jul 17, 2019

lilljonas posted:

Swedish news says 42 planes from Netherlands, yet unknown about Denmark. That’s… pretty nice.

Danish news says 19 from Denmark and after thorough calculations I've arrived at a total of 61 donated F-16s.

Slashrat
Jun 6, 2011

YOSPOS

Owling Howl posted:

Danish news says 19 from Denmark and after thorough calculations I've arrived at a total of 61 donated F-16s.

There's a timeline with that as well, with 6 planes aimed at being delivered by new year, another 8 planes during 2024 and the last 5 in 2025

hey mom its 420
May 12, 2007

Anders Puck-Nielsen has a new video about the F-16s, and in his opinion, they'll mostly come in handy to intercept missiles and won't be able to directly participate in the counteroffensive in any critical manner. He then goes on to make a point how their purpose is more for the long-term, since they'll have to bring their air force to NATO standards eventually and modernize it.

Staluigi
Jun 22, 2021

Noobicide posted:

Every Ukrainian town becomes an Abu Ghraib and far worse if Russia wins. What do you think "filtration camps" are? Of course it's regrettable for the truck driver. None of this is good, but Putin's goal is to make Ukraine and Ukrainians not exist. Should they just accept genocide?

Why leap into this false dichotomy territory where we have to be ok with the practice of turning civilians into unwitting suicide bombers or we're Genocide Accepters? maybe there's other options that don't involve accepting or encouraging a race to the moral bottom even if we accept that these atrocities get created by those who pursue wars of conquest and subjugation (and are therefore a super great reason not to do that in the first place) like cmon these hitlers arent even calm anymore, they going off

mutata
Mar 1, 2003

Ok. I'm very upset that Ukraine blew up a truck with a civilian inside. Now what.

Rugz
Apr 15, 2014

PLS SEE AVATAR. P.S. IM A BELL END LOL

Staluigi posted:

Why leap into this false dichotomy territory where we have to be ok with the practice of turning civilians into unwitting suicide bombers or we're Genocide Accepters? maybe there's other options that don't involve accepting or encouraging a race to the moral bottom even if we accept that these atrocities get created by those who pursue wars of conquest and subjugation (and are therefore a super great reason not to do that in the first place) like cmon these hitlers arent even calm anymore, they going off

Other options such as?

James Garfield
May 5, 2012
Am I a manipulative abuser in real life, or do I just roleplay one on the Internet for fun? You decide!
It's not a race to the moral bottom, one participant is doing a genocide and the other is not.

Quixzlizx
Jan 7, 2007
I don't even know who anyone is arguing with, it's not like there have been trolls coming into the thread to rile people up on this specific issue like the genocide-denial ones or the ones months ago who were posting pics of random Ukrainian soldiers with potentially fash tattoos to prove that glorious Russia is in the right.

Tigey
Apr 6, 2015

James Garfield posted:

It's not a race to the moral bottom, one participant is doing a genocide and the other is not.

If its a race to the moral bottom then Ukraine has taken a couple of slow tentative steps from the starting line, whilst Russia has sprinted ahead several dozen miles

Dante80
Mar 23, 2015

Quixzlizx posted:

I don't even know who anyone is arguing with, it's not like there have been trolls coming into the thread to rile people up on this specific issue like the genocide-denial ones or the ones months ago who were posting pics of random Ukrainian soldiers with potentially fash tattoos to prove that glorious Russia is in the right.

Ah, speaking of which...Zelensky dropped this the other day.

https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1692101108397703283

enhance!

OctaMurk
Jun 21, 2013

Dante80 posted:

Ah, speaking of which...Zelensky dropped this the other day.

https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1692101108397703283

enhance!



It is heritage, not hate

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

Mr. Apollo
Nov 8, 2000

hey mom its 420 posted:

Anders Puck-Nielsen has a new video about the F-16s, and in his opinion, they'll mostly come in handy to intercept missiles and won't be able to directly participate in the counteroffensive in any critical manner.
Yeah, I think that’s always been the main reason for Ukraine getting Western airframes. They need them for missile and drone interception. Some stand-off weapons might be launched from them but they wouldn’t be used offensively too much.

Toxic Mental
Jun 1, 2019

Dante80 posted:

Ah, speaking of which...Zelensky dropped this the other day.

https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1692101108397703283

enhance!



https://twitter.com/Hani_Iskander/status/1692148129725095992?s=20

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

lilljonas posted:

Ukraine getting F-16s from Netherlands and Denmark:

https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-zelenskyy-netherlands-f16-9252de3ad10357a41212262c560874aa

Swedish news says 42 planes from Netherlands, yet unknown about Denmark. That’s… pretty nice.

Netherlands have denied Zelensky's claim, they have 42 F-16's in total but they will look into how many can be given away. However many that is, hopefully they will be delivered sooner than later so Ukraine gets to start building operational experience with the equipment.

lilljonas
May 6, 2007

We got crabs? We got crabs!

Nenonen posted:

Netherlands have denied Zelensky's claim, they have 42 F-16's in total but they will look into how many can be given away. However many that is, hopefully they will be delivered sooner than later so Ukraine gets to start building operational experience with the equipment.

Yeah it was always a hard cap on how long they would scrape by on what warsaw pact airframes could be scrounged up from Eastern Europe. Hopefully it’ll be just like with the tanks that this is just the official start of more countries supplying support.

Xiahou Dun
Jul 16, 2009

We shall dive down through black abysses... and in that lair of the Deep Ones we shall dwell amidst wonder and glory forever.




Yes. Just like they famously shut down all nightclubs and bars during WWII.

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Xiahou Dun posted:

Yes. Just like they famously shut down all nightclubs and bars during WWII.

Finland banned dancing :colbert:

Cpt_Obvious
Jun 18, 2007

Nenonen posted:

Finland banned dancing :colbert:

The axis powers were famously bad dancers anyway.

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

Nenonen posted:

Finland banned dancing :colbert:

Now thats an idea for Footloose remake

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa
Of course if you outlaw dancing then only outlaws are dancing.

This is off topic but I'll just briefly mention about one case out of many where young people have decided to take a record player to a barn and dance in secret. Except some prude notices and calls the cop and when the dancers realize this, they scatter into the night across fields. The teller of this account unfortunately had shoes made of paper, which was a thing because leather was in short supply, and had to run across a ditch, so the shoes quickly turned into pulp. Better keep the night clubs open, soldiers also like little R&R on their leaves.

Moon Slayer
Jun 19, 2007

Couple interesting reads I've come across today:

On the Front Line, Ukrainian Commanders Are Buoyed to Be on the Offensive

quote:

In 18 months of war, Ukrainian land has mostly changed hands in sudden bursts, with Russia snatching a mass of territory at the start and Ukraine recapturing chunks in dramatic counterattacks. Now 10 weeks into its most ambitious counteroffensive, with heavy casualties and equipment losses, questions have been growing about whether Ukraine can punch through Russian lines.

Despite grueling fighting, Ukrainian forces along much of the 600-mile front are moving forward, and commanders and veteran soldiers say they are in better shape now than six or 12 months ago.

“If a year ago we were conducting defensive operations and we had the task of holding back the enemy, now we have the ability to attack,” Col. Dmytro Lysiuk, commander of the 128th Mountain Assault Brigade, said in an interview in his frontline bunker last week.

Ukrainian officers are almost invariably upbeat in interviews. Even if the counteroffensive has yielded only mixed results so far, with Ukrainian troops slowed by dense Russian minefields and sustained firepower, they describe previous periods as being tougher than this one.

Their optimism is tempered by the deepening realization that the war looks likely to continue at least a couple of years more. Some commanders even talk of a permanent state of conflict.

But Colonel Lysiuk and other leaders interviewed in recent weeks point to what they describe as a number of encouraging changes. Their units are better trained and equipped than ever, thanks to billions of dollars of Western aid.

They have worked out how to manage the training of fresh soldiers and how to keep replenishing their ranks after losses, even while continuing to fight. Almost every unit has grown in professionalism and size: Battalions have turned into brigades, and volunteer groups into formal army units.

Obviously comes from a place where the interviewees have a big incentive to put a positive face on things, but good to hear nonetheless.

...

As Ukraine flies through artillery rounds, U.S. races to keep up

quote:

The Biden administration’s sprint to supply Ukraine with weapons central to its military success against Russia has yielded a promising acceleration of arms production, including the standard NATO artillery round, output of which is expected soon to reach double its prewar U.S. rate of 14,000 a month.

The stakes in the U.S. effort to shake up a sclerotic defense acquisition system are particularly high as Kyiv tries to claw back territory from Russian control in a slow-moving counteroffensive whose fate, U.S. officials now say, hinges on the West’s ability to satisfy Ukraine’s astonishing hunger for artillery ammunition.

But industry experts warn of major challenges in sustaining an elevated output of arms and equipment needed not just to aid Ukraine but to ensure the United States’ own security in potential conflicts with Russia or China. Those include overcoming scarcity of key inputs including TNT and maintaining expanded capacity amid fluctuating budgets and uncertainty about future military needs.

“Whether you think it’s going well or it’s going poorly is whether you’re a glass-half-full person or glass-half-empty,” Cynthia Cook, a defense industry expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said of the attempt to ramp up arms manufacturing swiftly. “But also, it’s how much you work in defense acquisition.”

The war in Ukraine has brought a boom for American defense firms, which are racing to expand production and factory capacity. It also has meant a bureaucratic scramble at the Pentagon to get needed equipment in time.

A year and a half after Russian President Vladimir Putin’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, production deals are only gradually being cemented. Of the $44.5 billion the United States has appropriated for manufacturing arms destined for Ukraine or replenishing donated U.S. stocks, the Defense Department to date has finalized contracts to produce weapons costing roughly $18.2 billion, or 40.8 percent of that total.

To Cook and other industry experts, that ratio, as modest as it appears, is an achievement for the military’s often slow, unwieldy acquisitions system, in which concluding a major contract often takes up to 16 months — let alone manufacturing a piece of complex equipment for use in battle.

Edgar Allen Ho
Apr 3, 2017

by sebmojo

Somaen posted:

As a person with friends in Ukraine who have to go to bomb shelters every other day and who have lost family members to bombings and the invasion, i think that the war crimes of bombing civilian infrastructure of Ukraine that has lead to tens of thousands of dead far outweighs in scale the one bombing in September 2022 that disabled a military logistic artery, however the effort and time put into posts in the last page gives the impression that the gravity of the tragedies is equal if not tipped to the end of the bridge bombing

As a person with friends in both Ukraine and Russia, lol get rekt and I’m glad I don’t have to read your one handed posts wishing you could be as badass as grandpa was in Talvisota for at least 30 days. Especially given you also post in the pregnancy thread I post in acting all cutesy and my russian rear end kids and russian rear end niece might get blown up in random civilian attacks and I’d come here and see you cheering it on because they also got a runway and some Aeroflot clunker or whatever

Sorry mods hit me, I’ll take it

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

OddObserver
Apr 3, 2009
The "Aeroflot clunker" is a strategic bomber. The same model that blew up plenty of civilians, and quite likely the same plane.

Weka
May 5, 2019

That child totally had it coming. Nobody should be able to be out at dusk except cars.
Has the bombing of civilian infrastructure lead to tens of thousands of dead? Latest OHCHR numbers are 9,369 dead civilians, over 2000 of which died in Russian held territory. For the period ending at the end of July.

https://www.ohchr.org/en/news/2023/07/ukraine-civilian-casualty-update-31-july-2023

mutata
Mar 1, 2003

What the christ is anyone's actual in point in all of this? That war sucks and is immoral? That Ukraine did a bad thing that they decided was worth it to them, at that point in the war? Yes, you're all correct.

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

Weka posted:

Has the bombing of civilian infrastructure lead to tens of thousands of dead? Latest OHCHR numbers are 9,369 dead civilians, over 2000 of which died in Russian held territory. For the period ending at the end of July.

https://www.ohchr.org/en/news/2023/07/ukraine-civilian-casualty-update-31-july-2023

Here is what you should take note of most of all from that report

quote:

OHCHR believes that the actual figures are considerably higher, as the receipt of information from some locations where intense hostilities have been going on has been delayed and many reports are still pending corroboration. This concerns, for example, Mariupol (Donetsk region), Lysychansk, Popasna, and Sievierodonetsk (Luhansk region), where there are allegations of numerous civilian casualties.

Mariupol is the largest city that has also been a ground of severe urban fighting for more than a month, with the city being under blockade and no reliable evacuation routes, with aviation bombs and Grads widely used. Death toll there alone is certainly in tens of thousands.

Chronojam
Feb 20, 2006

This is me on vacation in Amsterdam :)
Never be afraid of being yourself!


OddObserver posted:

The "Aeroflot clunker" is a strategic bomber. The same model that blew up plenty of civilians, and quite likely the same plane.

Supersonic nuclear bomber vs old airliner is an easy mistake to make, even a trained Buk crew on vacation could make the slip-up.

thekeeshman
Feb 21, 2007

Edgar Allen Ho posted:

As a person with friends in both Ukraine and Russia, lol get rekt and I’m glad I don’t have to read your one handed posts wishing you could be as badass as grandpa was in Talvisota for at least 30 days. Especially given you also post in the pregnancy thread I post in acting all cutesy and my russian rear end kids and russian rear end niece might get blown up in random civilian attacks and I’d come here and see you cheering it on because they also got a runway and some Aeroflot clunker or whatever

Sorry mods hit me, I’ll take it

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

Keep your kids and niece away from Crimea and Russian military installations and they'll be perfectly safe from Ukrainians, though I can't say the same about their fellow Russians.

BridgeDeath
Aug 20, 2023

by Fluffdaddy

Edgar Allen Ho posted:

As a person with friends in both Ukraine and Russia, lol get rekt and I’m glad I don’t have to read your one handed posts wishing you could be as badass as grandpa was in Talvisota for at least 30 days. Especially given you also post in the pregnancy thread I post in acting all cutesy and my russian rear end kids and russian rear end niece might get blown up in random civilian attacks and I’d come here and see you cheering it on because they also got a runway and some Aeroflot clunker or whatever

Sorry mods hit me, I’ll take it

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

Why are you like the second idiot to assume I'm Finnish? I'm a non Russia born ethnic russian with family in Russia. I'm not "justifying" civilian deaths, but pointing out that if the logical calculus of any military sees more upsides to killing civilians while targeting military or militarily adjacent targets compared to reputational downsides, they will do it. This doesn't mean I lust for russian civilians to be killed. If you are too stupid to grasp that, then condolences to your family for being related to a moron

Leave my infant out of it freak

(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

(USER WAS BANNED FOR THIS POST)

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Name Change
Oct 9, 2005


mutata posted:

What the christ is anyone's actual in point in all of this? That war sucks and is immoral? That Ukraine did a bad thing that they decided was worth it to them, at that point in the war? Yes, you're all correct.

- Ukraine has no right to self-defense because some troops have fascist armbands

- Ukraine is sometimes doing bad things, the only acceptable path forward is to stop daily Russian war crimes by surrendering unconditionally and being absorbed into Russia's far-right mafia state

- A strong and independent Russian state is a check on evil American power and therefore an unambiguous good in the world, never mind that they have nearly inextricable financial ties with the west even in war time

- It's everyone else's fault that Russia is pissing their strength away by bungling an illegal invasion of a small neighbor and bleeding away their people and future in an unwinnable proxy war with the west

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