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Cattail Prophet posted:Your problem is that you're thinking too old. There's a window of ~3 years between the end of Clinton and the beginning of Bush 2 where their statement is true. You got it I am a baby by goon standards  I’d also like a real roster for the debate. I’m down to tune in for a clown car but without Donnie it might be just a field of Please Claps
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Aug 20, 2023 15:41
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Aug 20, 2023 16:12
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What's the source on that poll image? I didn't find the original searching yougov and don't want to pass it on without verifying.
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Aug 20, 2023 16:51
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MixMasterMalaria posted:What's the source on that poll image? I didn't find the original searching yougov and don't want to pass it on without verifying. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-poll-indictments-2023-08-20/
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Aug 20, 2023 16:54
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Note that the MoE on that is 7.2, so take it more as generalities than specifics, but yeah, whoo, it’s a cult
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Aug 20, 2023 16:57
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Trump really is the Nazi Kwisatz Haderach, even down to arriving too early and escaping the control of organization which spent generations preparing the way for him.
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Aug 20, 2023 16:58
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Bel Shazar posted:Trump really is the Nazi Kwisatz Haderach, even down to arriving too early and escaping the control of organization which spent generations preparing the way for him. God drat! This insightful commentary is why I still come to SA.
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Aug 20, 2023 17:15
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before i googled that name my first thought was "oh he must have been involved with menachem begin"
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Aug 20, 2023 17:18
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Thanks
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Aug 20, 2023 18:57
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setfiretothecouch posted:Do we actually have an idea of who is going to be at the debate? We do not know who is actually going at this point. I suppose everyone involved knows/wants it to be Trump so they don't really care. At the moment the debate roster is shaping up to be a game time decision.
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Aug 20, 2023 22:43
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The deadline is tomorrow and I think some of the candidates are claiming they qualified regardless of whether they actually did.
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Aug 20, 2023 22:51
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I guess he’s trying to make more direct attacks on Trump but the primary voters aren’t hearing it. Listless vessels sounds like a polite way to say zombie. Not sure how that’ll work for him but I guess it’s sunk in that being the alternative when trump flames out isn’t gonna happen. I feel like that 8% margin of voters that believe trump over their family represent a sliver of the cult that’ll stay home before voting for anyone else. “Washington post” posted:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/08/20/ron-desantis-trump-comments
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Aug 20, 2023 23:45
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The problem for DeSantis other than having the personality of Ron DeSantis is that his most appealing gimmick was opposition to COVID lockdown/vaccines. That genuinely did have a national following among normies. but COVID as a national emergency has being over for 18 months now. The lockdown is becoming, as the Deus Ex ending put it, just another fevered dream as it recedes in the rearview mirror. So half of his appeal just went away by default. looking back at I think a big reason why Terry McAuliffe lost in a fairly blue state in 2021 but the red wave never materialized in 2022 was because COVID restrictions and school closures wasn't an issue in Nov 2022 the way it had being in Nov 2021 His other gimmick is anti-woke cultural war confrontation. Problem is there aren't that many people who simulteanously care about it and would ever vote against TRUMP Typo fucked around with this message at 01:08 on Aug 21, 2023 |
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Aug 21, 2023 01:04
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Just take him behind the barn and put him down!
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Aug 21, 2023 01:27
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Jesus III posted:Just take him behind the barn and put him down! I'm sure his wife would be up to the job, and she would do it with humility and love.
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Aug 21, 2023 03:27
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Honestly, I find it offensive that all the GOP primary folks aside from Trump, Christie and Hutch are all on the “hope Trump dies or goes to jail before the election (DeSantis) or picks me for VP (all the rest)”. It is disgusting. I recognize that this is a relatively unprecedented scenario in recent times, of a defeated President running in a primary again. Since the party has never repudiated him in any way and passed on the opportunity to impeach and end his career, of course he would be the presumptive nominee. He is essentially the incumbent nominee. The thing I do not get is that people like Haley and Scott could audition for a VP spot without these sham candidacies, but they want to have tickets in the raffle basket for if Trump just happens to kick the bucket or something, maybe they will get lucky.
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Aug 21, 2023 03:36
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Zwabu posted:Honestly, I find it offensive that all the GOP primary folks aside from Trump, Christie and Hutch are all on the “hope Trump dies or goes to jail before the election (DeSantis) or picks me for VP (all the rest)”. It is disgusting. at least some of the ppl are running for 2028 and/or Trump's VP it will be hilarious when/if Trump runs again in 2028
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Aug 21, 2023 04:00
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hawley and cotton saw the writing on the wall and sat this one out
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Aug 21, 2023 04:05
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https://twitter.com/MeidasTouch/status/1693426932569026902
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Aug 21, 2023 04:12
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i say swears online posted:hawley and cotton saw the writing on the wall and sat this one out I feel like Cotton hasn't really done anything in years. If he had any kind of controversy or evil speech about something I have completely forgotten it.
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Aug 21, 2023 04:20
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Yawgmoft posted:I feel like Cotton hasn't really done anything in years. If he had any kind of controversy or evil speech about something I have completely forgotten it. There's always his edit: of course it was the New York Times  https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/03/opinion/tom-cotton-protests-military.html
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Aug 21, 2023 04:50
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Cotton calling J6 insurrectionists ”insurrectionists” really hurt him, especially since he kept using it.
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Aug 21, 2023 05:16
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Cotton had 2020 circled on his calendar, assuming that Hillary was going to win in 2016 and be a relatively unpopular/lame-duck president, leading her to be strongly challenged in 2020. Instead, Trump happened and Cotton's whole gameplan went up in flames. His advantages is that he's still very young (46), he's in a blood-red state where the only challenge is going to come from the lunatic right and he's well-funded enough to thwart anyone with more than two functioning brain cells from trying to primary him. Cotton is hoping to keep his head down and toe the line between base-demanded Trump worship and whatever comes out of the GOP on the other side of all this. The worst thing for Cotton would be if Trump wanted him to be VP; even though he's one cholesterol-filled heartbeat away from the presidency, it means hitching himself to the Trump train and wherever that ends up when Cotton has a chance to write his own ticket if he can wait long enough. It's still entirely possible that the MAGA base won't accept anyone that isn't Trump adjacent or that they can't make their entire meaning for existance, meaning he'll never have gotten his shot, but that means his worse-case scenario is some four-five terms as a US Senator and all of the prestige and profits that come from there.
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Aug 21, 2023 06:47
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When Tom Cotton was a freshman, he was infamously the dumbest man in Congress. He was uninterested in governing or understanding government processes and preferred to leave that up to lobbyists. Unfortunately, he was first elected in 2014. The state of the art has moved on.
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Aug 21, 2023 11:23
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It's not surprising, but it is a little disappointing that Trump is officially sitting out the debate. Yeah, we get Christie and Hutch vs. the people who are running against Trump but also have to defend him, but we could've had that dynamic and Trump making GBS threads all over his own defenders.
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Aug 21, 2023 14:38
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The Lord of Hats posted:It's not surprising, but it is a little disappointing that Trump is officially sitting out the debate. Yeah, we get Christie and Hutch vs. the people who are running against Trump but also have to defend him, but we could've had that dynamic and Trump making GBS threads all over his own defenders. Nah he would only have attacked DeSantis and Christie (and MAYBE Hutch).
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Aug 21, 2023 15:43
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The first Selzer poll is out: https://eu.desmoinesregister.com/st...es/70624481007/ And while on the surface it looks good for Trump: https://eu.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/caucus/2023/08/21/iowa-poll-donald-trump-holds-commanding-lead-5-months-to-caucuses/70624481007/ posted:A majority, or 52%, of likely GOP caucusgoers have a first choice for president and say they could still be persuaded to support a different candidate, while 40% say their minds are made up. Actually I'm having trouble parsing that quote now
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Aug 21, 2023 19:19
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bollig posted:The first Selzer poll is out: 40% of people who are likely to vote in the caucus say they aren't changing their mind. 52% say they could change their mind. If those percentages were evenly distributed among the candidates (I didn't check to see if they had some sort of crosstabs for that question), that would be good news for not Trump, because maybe they'd peel off some of his support. I suspect there is a lot of overlap between the 42% who want Trump first and the 40% who don't think they'll change who they want first, so that's not as good news for the not Trumps. E: bollig posted:
lol Jethro fucked around with this message at 21:30 on Aug 21, 2023 |
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Aug 21, 2023 19:31
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I read that as, 52% of likely caucusgoers are soft decided. Or put another way, seems to me like shy Trump supporters. They could be convinced to vote for someone else, but they probably won't be because there isn't a Trumpier Trump, and they'll rally around whoever is ahead. Its caucus goers in Iowa though, I think they chose Cruz in '16 and Huckabee in '12? So... Even if they coalesced around a non-Trump its effectively meaningless.
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Aug 21, 2023 19:31
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Yiggy posted:I read that as, 52% of likely caucusgoers are soft decided. Or put another way, seems to me like shy Trump supporters. They could be convinced to vote for someone else, but they probably won't be because there isn't a Trumpier Trump, and they'll rally around whoever is ahead. You could be right, but also is there really such a thing as a shy Trump supporter these days?
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Aug 21, 2023 19:33
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Jethro posted:You could be right, but also is there really such a thing as a shy Trump supporter these days? I think there is a small, less strident tranche of Trump voters that voted reliably for Trump (and absolutely would again) that want to pretend they're not quite as radical as the worst of the movement and really just are tired of being hassled at thanksgiving. There was an ad they put out that this article discusses at the end. So maybe shy is the wrong word, but rather, embarassed. New Yorker Article posted:In recent weeks, the campaign had taken note of an anti-Trump message that seemed likely to have some traction with Republican voters: a sixty-second spot, “John,” cut by a PAC. In it, a middle-aged man, seated on the steps of a suburban home and speaking calmly to the camera, says that he loves Donald Trump and saw him as a “breath of fresh air,” but that this got him disinvited from his sister’s for Thanksgiving. “The drama . . . he’s got so many distractions, the constant fighting, there’s something every day,” John says. “And I’m not sure he can focus on moving the country forward.” The country is heading in the wrong direction, he adds, “and we definitely need somebody that can freakin’ win. I think you probably lose that bet if you voted for Trump.” https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-political-scene/the-ron-desantis-slump
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Aug 21, 2023 19:39
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Jethro posted:You could be right, but also is there really such a thing as a shy Trump supporter these days? Yes, at least here in blue city/red state land. It’s basically everyone who won’t tell you who they support, is “independent”, thinks the street art of pikachu saying Black Lives Matter is a social menace and warning of imminent attack by nefarious unnamed gangs, wants to see the debates before they can comment, etc My racial power as a white guy is the mask comes off as soon as no one who doesn’t look like me is around and they’re “considering” Trump because *racist screed* So honestly guess it depends if you mean public or privately shy This isn’t new either. In high school the literal Klan kids would feel safe ranting at me because I was white, meanwhile I’m here like “bro you know my grandma spent four years in Ravensbrück and I’ve got a yarmulke under my baseball cap right?” Except too afraid to actually say it Edgar Allen Ho fucked around with this message at 19:52 on Aug 21, 2023 |
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Aug 21, 2023 19:47
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Jethro posted:40% of people who are likely to vote in the caucus say they aren't changing their mind. 52% say they could change their mind. If those percentages were evenly distributed among the candidates (I didn't check to see if they had some sort of crosstabs for that question), that would be good news for not Trump, because maybe they'd peel off some of his support. I suspect there is a lot of overlap between the 42% who want Trump first and the 40% who don't think they'll change who they want first, so that's not as good news for the not Trumps. Yeah this is right. I was on the move. I thought it was that 52% had a first choice and of that 40% was not going to change. But this is less bad for Trump than I thought.
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Aug 21, 2023 20:56
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 Found this in the cross tabs. Lol.
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Aug 21, 2023 21:02
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Morrow posted:When Tom Cotton was a freshman, he was infamously the dumbest man in Congress. He was uninterested in governing or understanding government processes and preferred to leave that up to lobbyists. Cotton sucks, but I'm sorry, he's no Louie Gohmert.
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Aug 22, 2023 00:41
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The list of debate qualifiers is out: https://twitter.com/ShaneGoldmacher/status/1693817909733122248
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Aug 22, 2023 05:24
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I am going to predict that Vivek takes a strong numerical boost by being slightly crazier than Trump.
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Aug 22, 2023 05:27
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Every time I see the name Cotton my mind goes to Cotton Hill and I assume people are referring to Mike Pence.
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Aug 22, 2023 05:48
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banned from Starbucks posted:Every time I see the name Cotton my mind goes to Cotton Hill and I assume people are referring to Mike Pence. Cotton Hill killed fitty men and slept with 273 women! Pence doesn't deserve to be mentioned in the same breath with him!
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Aug 22, 2023 06:04
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Cpt_Obvious posted:I am going to predict that Vivek takes a strong numerical boost by being slightly crazier than Trump. The 36 Lessons of Vivek Ramaswamy Sermon 19 Vivek turned on his mic and stepped into a non-spatial space filling to capacity with mortal interaction and information, a canvas-less cartography of every single mind it has ever known. He said, 'From here I shall launch my attack on the Democrats.'
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Aug 22, 2023 15:23
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