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fatherboxx)
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OddObserver posted:Will be even better if India succeeds in 3 days, thus beating Russia to the moon. I think you'll find that the Russian probe got to the surface first - they already won the race!
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Aug 20, 2023 22:49
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mmkay posted:I think you'll find that the Russian probe got to the surface first - they already won the race! Nah, if crashing counts Russia got beaten by India, Japan, and Israel.
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Aug 20, 2023 22:53
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https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1693242893098492220#m Ukrainian quadcoptors were reportedly able to take out a Tu-22M3 in Soltsy, which seems pretty crazy considering where the base is.
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Aug 20, 2023 22:55
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Apparently my posting that I felt uneasy about the truck driver being deliberately used as an unwitting suicide bomber has tapped into the most bizarre vein of... unexpected... something. It was obviously not my intent to make any sort of equivalency argument. I'm somewhat amazed or aghast at some of the responses, and I apologize for whatever part I have played in this.
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Aug 20, 2023 23:00
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Name Change posted:- Ukraine has no right to self-defense because some troops have fascist armbands Holy poo poo no! The current discussion has been to ask people to stop posting poo poo like this BabyFur Denny posted:Nah gently caress them. They know they're on illegally occupied territory in the middle of a war. Their presence is actively supporting the invasion. They're just as valid a target as some poor Russian mobik that was drafted against his will and forced to the front. Noobicide posted:Ukraine is defending itself against a war of extermination. Nothing is off limits... There are some very good reasons not to do so as this poster kindly pointed out Virtual Russian posted:Just going to chime in on the civilian stuff. I just lurk to keep tabs on things and stay informed, but I feel like I need to say something. I'm a former soldier, I've served mostly with normal everyday people, but there were some real monsters too. The absolute worst was a sergeant that bragged about shooting "insert slur that starts with rag" at a farm because they had shovels, said anyone carrying a shovel around Afghanistan deserved to die because they could easily be setting up IEDs. Said he didn't care if they were actually doing that, it was enough that they had shovels, they should have known better than to be seen with one. Obviously they were farmers, and this is his telling of the story, gently caress knows what actually happened. He was one of the few people I met in my service that genuinely scared me.
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Aug 20, 2023 23:04
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WarpedLichen posted:https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1693242893098492220#m Some speculation that it was a SOF team launching a quadcopter from nearby. I think it's a pretty viable tactic. Reliably detecting and shooting down tiny quadcopters is not feasible when you only have like 30 secs to react. Putting a sufficiently large perimeter around every base will cost in manpower and blocking radio signals will be somwhat inconvenient at airbases... Question is how difficult it would be to evade capture in Russia but if the Russian police mirror RuAF in competence they can probably just drive around in a Ukrainian registered RV indefinitely.
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Aug 20, 2023 23:29
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fatherboxx posted:Here is what you should take note of most of all from that report When you say "certainly" is that your analysis? OHCHR says thousands more than their 1348 confirmed. They also say the majority of civilians successfully evacuated. https://www.ohchr.org/en/statements/2022/06/high-commissioner-updates-human-rights-council-mariupol-ukraine posted:An estimated 350,000 people were forced to leave the city.
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Aug 20, 2023 23:35
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I am sure Russia makes sure to notify them every time they murder someone in one of their torture chambers.
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Aug 20, 2023 23:37
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Weka posted:When you say "certainly" is that your analysis? OHCHR says thousands more than their 1348 confirmed. They also say the majority of civilians successfully evacuated. Do you understand what "verified" means? Do you think Russia shares access to databases with OHCHR? Or that Russian authorities done proper job to account every makeshift courtyard grave? Have you considered that for most part of last year while under occupation the city had barely functioning utilities? Including winter with most buildings missing windows? Have you seen any footage from Mariupol at all?
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Aug 20, 2023 23:49
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Owling Howl posted:Some speculation that it was a SOF team launching a quadcopter from nearby. I think it's a pretty viable tactic. Reliably detecting and shooting down tiny quadcopters is not feasible when you only have like 30 secs to react. Putting a sufficiently large perimeter around every base will cost in manpower and blocking radio signals will be somwhat inconvenient at airbases... Well the quad copters are effectively disposable. You can have one guy with the drone move it into position, arm it and leave before the pilot far away starts it up. After dropping the ordnance they can fly it in an opposite direction or just destroy it. You could probably pull it off with as few as two people. Being able to destroy a several million dollar airframe along with potential ordnance none of which are easily replaced with under $2000 worth of kit is a trade off most will make all day.
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Aug 21, 2023 00:40
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fatherboxx posted:Do you understand what "verified" means? To be clear, I am not saying there were not tens of thousands of civilian casualties in Mariiupol, I am saying I have not personally seen sufficient evidence to say that there certainly were. As you point out, there is a dearth of information. And yes I have seen such footage and am aware of the general situation. I think it is instructive to compare to the first and second battles of Grozny, a city of approximately the same size. The first battle in '94-95 resulted probably in the sorts of numbers of civilian deaths you are talking about whereas the second in 1999-2000 probably did not, despite I understand the city being subjected to heavier bombardment in the second case.
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Aug 21, 2023 01:20
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Weka posted:To be clear, I am not saying there were not tens of thousands of civilian casualties in Mariiupol, I am saying I have not personally seen sufficient evidence to say that there certainly were. As you point out, there is a dearth of information. And yes I have seen such footage and am aware of the general situation. ummel posted:Here ya go. Weka, having read the articles linked in Ummel's post, do think that there is sufficient evidence that there were tens of thousands of civilian casualties in Mariupol?
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Aug 21, 2023 04:35
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Thank you for taking the time to compile this list. These articles are centered around two things, one is earthworks observed from space and the other is claims by the Ukrainian state. As to the former, it is very much a case of rough, napkin style, mathematics, which indicate ~10,000 graves. This is half as many as "tens of thousands". The number could be twice that or half that though, just based on how rough the maths is. Moreover, as pointed out in one of the linked articles, fresh turned earth does not mean a death. "Roland Wessing, who helped excavate mass graves in Bosnia, Croatia and Iraq, cautioned that the number of graves doesn’t necessarily match the number of Ukrainians killed." As to Ukrainian state claims of the civilian death toll, it is unclear to me how they would make these estimates. The one representative of the Ukrainian state identified is Vadym Boychenko, who left Mariupol on February 26th, 2 days after the siege of Mariupol began. https://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2022/04/10/7338680/ Aside from their being no real plausible way for them to make these estimates, the Ukrainian state has repeatedly published lies for propaganda value, such as in the case of the Ghost of Kiev. I am not criticizing this practice but it does mean I do not think their claims are credible without substantiation. Mariupol has certainly be heavily damaged but so was Grozny in 1999-2000 (I think worse but I can't quickly find a source). Estimates of civilian deaths I have seen range from 5-8,000. The cities were similar in terms of population.
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Aug 21, 2023 05:11
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Weka posted:Thank you for taking the time to compile this list. Part of the problem is that you have switched from saying casualties to saying exclusively deaths midway through this conversation. The estimates of Grozny in the 5 week long battle of Grozny was 5,000-8,000 dead, not all casualties. So using that number to try to estimate Mariupol's civilian casualties seems pretty pointless? Clearly, there are less civilians who have been killed than there are civilians who have been killed plus injured. By definition, casualty numbers are the deceased and the injured combined. If you are making an argument about only the dead and ignoring the injured, you should make that more clear. If you were confused about what the word casualty means, now you know.
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Aug 21, 2023 05:55
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Are we talking about civilian casualties in Ukraine? Civilian deaths in Ukraine? Civilian casualties only in Mariupol? Civilian deaths only in Mariupol? It seems the goalposts are shifting with every new post.
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Aug 21, 2023 07:00
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Djarum posted:Well the quad copters are effectively disposable. You can have one guy with the drone move it into position, arm it and leave before the pilot far away starts it up. After dropping the ordnance they can fly it in an opposite direction or just destroy it. You could probably pull it off with as few as two people. I am reminded of those Russian arms industry marketing videos; iirc there was one where a guy drove a truck carrying a container on it near an airbase. The container was filled with missiles and blew up all the (american) planes at the base. I would note if it was really as easy as all that they'd just blow up *all* the bombers at the airbase with quadcopters, they wouldn't pussyfoot around just blowing up one. One is something they can accomplish and has outsize effects due to paranoia.
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Aug 21, 2023 07:05
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TheDeadlyShoe posted:I am reminded of those Russian arms industry marketing videos; iirc there was one where a guy drove a truck carrying a container on it near an airbase. The container was filled with missiles and blew up all the (american) planes at the base. Well blowing up one or two targets of opportunity is one thing with a small SOF unit behind enemy lines. Blowing up all the bombers with drones isn’t really feasible for a variety of reasons. But the fear and paranoia effects are just as good. If I were Ukraine I’d be doing the same thing at bases deep inside of Russia. Force them to spend resources and manpower they don’t have to spare to defend all of these bases in Eastern and Central Russia far from the front.
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Aug 21, 2023 07:15
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TheDeadlyShoe posted:I am reminded of those Russian arms industry marketing videos; iirc there was one where a guy drove a truck carrying a container on it near an airbase. The container was filled with missiles and blew up all the (american) planes at the base. That's dahir insat https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hF9UufzGgYQ
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Aug 21, 2023 07:19
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TheDeadlyShoe posted:I am reminded of those Russian arms industry marketing videos; iirc there was one where a guy drove a truck carrying a container on it near an airbase. The container was filled with missiles and blew up all the (american) planes at the base. Dahir Insaat isn't even involved in the arms industry, he's just a dude who does schoolboy notebook doodle "inventions", lovingly rendered in 3D.
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Aug 21, 2023 07:21
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mlmp08 posted:Part of the problem is that you have switched from saying casualties to saying exclusively deaths midway through this conversation. I have not and would encourage you to glance through my posts again if you think I am mistake. The post that started this chat was the following one, which is also about deaths. One fellow did use casualties seemingly mistakenly, but it has not impacted the meat of the conversation, which has always been centered around civilian death. Somaen posted:...bombing civilian infrastructure of Ukraine that has lead to tens of thousands of dead ...
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Aug 21, 2023 07:32
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1. A lot of people have died in this horrible war, and a lot more people are going to die as the war and attrition continues. 2. I wouldn't believe any number the official Ukrainian and Russian states give about anything, especially if said numbers have propaganda value.
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Aug 21, 2023 07:59
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SlowBloke posted:That's dahir insat I particularly enjoy the little robot arms that attach the rotor blades so you don’t have to fuss around with a wrench during your cook out/NATO turkey shoot
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Aug 21, 2023 09:19
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NATO really hosed up when they lined up 1024 F-16's on a single runway with bombs attached. No way that would end well.
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Aug 21, 2023 09:26
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I wonder what sort of surveillance and drone defence Russian bases have. I once saw a search helicopter come out looking after someone used a consumer drone to take a group photo near a western airbase. Like quick enough that I’m glad we weren’t a special forces team waiting to make our escape after executing a drone attack.
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Aug 21, 2023 09:52
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Can one of the armchair generals or someone who has played lots of flight sims please explain what the tactical and strategic significance of Ukraine getting the F-16s? Will they change the attritional nature of the current situation at all?
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Aug 21, 2023 11:05
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Chill Monster posted:Can one of the armchair generals or someone who has played lots of flight sims please explain what the tactical and strategic significance of Ukraine getting the F-16s? More planes to launch Storm Shadows and their analogues, and also HARMs means more static targets (warehouses, barracks, radar stations, counterbattery stations) exploding and thus making Russian forces holding the frontline weaker.
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Aug 21, 2023 11:23
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Chill Monster posted:Can one of the armchair generals or someone who has played lots of flight sims please explain what the tactical and strategic significance of Ukraine getting the F-16s? There's a post in one of the Ukraine threads about just that! https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=4026289&pagenumber=814&perpage=40&userid=0#post534024937 Long story short, there are more parts so the f16s can keep flying longer. There are more spares so losses aren't as bad. They can fire a lot of kinds of weapons too: even if they can't be used for immediate air supremacy they can still work as missile and bomb trucks. Gnome goes into a lot more detail.
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Aug 21, 2023 11:28
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This baseball stats genocide denial is getting weird. Chill Monster posted:Can one of the armchair generals or someone who has played lots of flight sims please explain what the tactical and strategic significance of Ukraine getting the F-16s? (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Aug 21, 2023 11:29
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Weka posted:I have not and would encourage you to glance through my posts again if you think I am mistake. The post that started this chat was the following one, which is also about deaths. One fellow did use casualties seemingly mistakenly, but it has not impacted the meat of the conversation, which has always been centered around civilian death. Just out of interest how many Ukrainian civilians do you think have felt a duty to join the military solely because their country was invaded and subsequently died under arms in its defence? Does Russia bear any culpability for their deaths?
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Aug 21, 2023 11:45
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Can F-16s (threaten to) shoot down Ka-52 helicopers to protect offensive operations?
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Aug 21, 2023 12:25
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Griefor posted:Can F-16s (threaten to) shoot down Ka-52 helicopers to protect offensive operations? Yes, but so can the other planes Ukraine's had all along. I'm not an airhead, but as I understand it Ukraine having F-16s is good because more planes = better than, and F-16s have generally better capabilities than the Mig-29 and Sukhoi fighters Ukraine currently uses because the superpower that built them didn't collapse in 1989. The downside is that Ukraine's pilots aren't trained to fly F-16s, but apparently such training has been being carried out outside of Ukraine for a while now.
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Aug 21, 2023 12:36
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Rust Martialis posted:Apparently my posting that I felt uneasy about the truck driver being deliberately used as an unwitting suicide bomber has tapped into the most bizarre vein of... unexpected... something. It was obviously not my intent to make any sort of equivalency argument. I'm somewhat amazed or aghast at some of the responses, and I apologize for whatever part I have played in this. People will go pretty far on the internet to ignore ethics when it’s ‘their team’. War is a tad more extreme than what internet posters generally argue about so feelings got inflamed. I wouldn’t worry about the armchair stuff on either side, I hope Virtual Russian’s post is an expression of how anyone who has been involved in a war feels about it.
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Aug 21, 2023 12:48
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Griefor posted:Can F-16s (threaten to) shoot down Ka-52 helicopers to protect offensive operations? I'm not a plane expert but from what I've read before, the AA options the F-16 has are more robust with "fire and forget" options vs "have to paint the target" options. That's about my level of understanding though. I've also seen that the value isn't protecting offensive operations directly. They could function as AA assets away from the line, and allow GA assets to move forward, I guess.
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Aug 21, 2023 12:53
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For air to air, the big difference between F-16 and the planes Ukraine already has is that F-16 can carry active radar homing missiles, and the planes Ukraine has can only do semi-active. The reason this matters is not just better range. With sarh, the shooting plane must keep the target on radar the whole way through, until the missile hits. With active missiles you just need to get the missile in the right neighbourhood and can then bug out while it does its thing. When operating near enemy aa, this can matter a lot.
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Aug 21, 2023 12:53
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I hope this isn't Clancy chat but I really enjoy the effort posts by equipment experts so I'm wondering, given that we have already escalated from shells and small arms to MBTs and F16s - is there a thing that we COULD give Ukraine that would drastically change the calculus of the war? Everyone seems to agree with this being good but relatively modest in overall impact, so I'm wondering what (if anything) would be a real heavy hitter in terms of capability, if we suddenly didn't care about optics or maintaining our own stocks.* *Excepting nuclear poo poo like Ohio class subs.
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Aug 21, 2023 13:12
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Presumably nuclear weapons, though I never was good at calculus. Theres no real wonder weapon to suddenly change things imo. Continued shipments of PGMs and arty capable of precise long-ranged fires + drones are prob best. Dandywalken fucked around with this message at 13:19 on Aug 21, 2023 |
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Aug 21, 2023 13:17
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Weka posted:I have not and would encourage you to glance through my posts again if you think I am mistake. The post that started this chat was the following one, which is also about deaths. One fellow did use casualties seemingly mistakenly, but it has not impacted the meat of the conversation, which has always been centered around civilian death. I have taken your encouragement to heart. Do you see how below is bouncing around between different topics and switch-hitting from discussion of casualties to deaths? What are you trying to actually discuss? You should pin it down to one specific claim probably, cause as is, it's kind of all over the place. This is the post where you stated that to be clear, you are talking about casualties: Weka posted:To be clear, I am not saying there were not tens of thousands of civilian casualties in Mariiupol, I am saying I have not personally seen sufficient evidence to say that there certainly were. But here you are talking only about dead: Weka posted:Has the bombing of civilian infrastructure lead to tens of thousands of dead? Latest OHCHR numbers are 9,369 dead civilians, over 2000 of which died in Russian held territory. For the period ending at the end of July. And here you are talking about the dead, but in a different war and in a different region entirely: Weka posted:I think it is instructive to compare to the first and second battles of Grozny, a city of approximately the same size. The first battle in '94-95 resulted probably in the sorts of numbers of civilian deaths you are talking about whereas the second in 1999-2000 probably did not, despite I understand the city being subjected to heavier bombardment in the second case. It's a whole other issue to wonder why you think Grozny is a good comparison. That doesn't necessarily follow at all. So are you talking bout casualties, as you said in your post where you said that "to be clear" you are talking about casualties? Or are you only talking about the dead. If you are settling now on only talkinga bout deaths and do not any longer want to discuss casualties as you were, that would help people figure out what kind of argument you are attemping to make. E: And here is a poster asking you about casualties pretty plainly, but you respond only about deaths, changing the subject away from casualties. 
mlmp08 fucked around with this message at 13:26 on Aug 21, 2023 |
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Aug 21, 2023 13:19
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KillHour posted:MBTs and F16s - is there a thing that we COULD give Ukraine that would drastically change the calculus of the war? presumably better MBT and F16s.. that is the newer abrams variants with better armor and sighting. Same with IFVs. hundreds of F35s instead of a handful of f16s. MRAPS, JLTVS. Hundreds of apaches and blackhawks and chinooks. Hell, a couple carriers loaded with F18s? Destroyers? Guided missiles escorts? I think most importantly though, like hundreds of each of these instead of a handful. Would it work? I dunno. Ukraine troops have to run everything, and not to knock them at all, but training and familiarization the US forces receive to the effect of properly utilizing combined arms shouldn't be taken lightly. ethanol fucked around with this message at 13:30 on Aug 21, 2023 |
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Aug 21, 2023 13:23
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| # ? Jun 8, 2024 01:24 |
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KillHour posted:I hope this isn't Clancy chat but I really enjoy the effort posts by equipment experts so I'm wondering, given that we have already escalated from shells and small arms to MBTs and F16s - is there a thing that we COULD give Ukraine that would drastically change the calculus of the war? Everyone seems to agree with this being good but relatively modest in overall impact, so I'm wondering what (if anything) would be a real heavy hitter in terms of capability, if we suddenly didn't care about optics or maintaining our own stocks.* The cheapest way of getting most impact would be removing restriction on targeting things in Russia with Western weapons, but nothing is a magic win button.
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Aug 21, 2023 13:26
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