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(Thread IKs: fatherboxx)
 
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Dirt5o8
Nov 6, 2008

EUGENE? Where's my fuckin' money, Eugene?
Along with more tanks/IFVs/jets/artillery, I'd like to see Ukraine get more haul- and engineer-assets. LMTVs (cargo trucks), heavy equipment hauling trucks, troop carriers, bulldozers, backhoe loaders, etc.

They are arguably as important as weapon systems and act as force multipliers on the attack and defense.

Cargo movers seems obvious but are crazy versatile on the attack or defense. Fuel, ammo, food, and troops always need to be moved, concentrated or dispersed. Vehicles of all types are better hauled than moved under power due to the maintenance costs.

Bulldozers, like the D7, are an absolute workhorse. Digging fighting positions, mine/obstacle clearance and emplacement, setting up logistics hubs, making combat roads and trails. They do just about everything. Same with BHLs, graders, excavators.

poo poo, just engineers and their equipment in general. Just flood Ukraine with engineer assets and trained personnel.

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DTurtle
Apr 10, 2011


KillHour posted:

I hope this isn't Clancy chat but I really enjoy the effort posts by equipment experts so I'm wondering, given that we have already escalated from shells and small arms to MBTs and F16s - is there a thing that we COULD give Ukraine that would drastically change the calculus of the war? Everyone seems to agree with this being good but relatively modest in overall impact, so I'm wondering what (if anything) would be a real heavy hitter in terms of capability, if we suddenly didn't care about optics or maintaining our own stocks.*


*Excepting nuclear poo poo like Ohio class subs.
Simply give them more. Instead of 50 to 60 tanks, give them 500. Instead of a few MLRS system give them hundreds. Instead of a hundred IFVs give them a thousand and more. Instead of a few F-16 give them hundreds. And so on.

Ukraine is still a mostly Soviet force with some modern systems. Ukraine has mostly replaced losses with Western and captured Russian systems. Except that their military has massively expanded and therefore needs huge amounts of additional equipment.

I do wonder how effective some F-35 would be …

Charliegrs
Aug 10, 2009

KillHour posted:

I hope this isn't Clancy chat but I really enjoy the effort posts by equipment experts so I'm wondering, given that we have already escalated from shells and small arms to MBTs and F16s - is there a thing that we COULD give Ukraine that would drastically change the calculus of the war? Everyone seems to agree with this being good but relatively modest in overall impact, so I'm wondering what (if anything) would be a real heavy hitter in terms of capability, if we suddenly didn't care about optics or maintaining our own stocks.*


*Excepting nuclear poo poo like Ohio class subs.

I don't think Ukraine has received many minefield breaching vehicles but they probably need literally hundreds of them. And also the kinds of short-medium range AA systems to protect them.

Kaal
May 22, 2002

through thousands of posts in D&D over a decade, I now believe I know what I'm talking about. if I post forcefully and confidently, I can convince others that is true. no one sees through my facade.

Djarum posted:

It’s honestly probably a mixture of both with Russia. We knew as far back as the Falklands War that anti-ship missiles were a very real threat to Naval operations and the technology has only gotten more mature in the 40 years since then. It is no surprise in what has happened there.

With China it is a whole other can of worms. There is a big difference between stopping a few ships in the Black Sea and stopping just one US carrier group. There is zero doubt that the US and others would lose some ships but it would not be able to take enough out to stop operations.

I am of the opinion that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be an utter fiasco for China. They can’t just bombard the island for three weeks and roll in like the US did in Iraq for example since they want and frankly need the valuable technology and manufacturing on the island. So an invasion would be by sea and air and incredibly long and with incredible losses. There is little guarantee of victory as well. You couple that with the no doubt massive economic damage to China as a result it makes little sense.

Really at this point I think China has little interest in actually taking back Taiwan militarily anymore but likes keeping the illusion that it is always an option to keep everyone on their toes. I think their real strategy is to do it via soft power and have them choose to reunite. It might take another 30-50-100 years but that doesn’t matter, they are patient.

I know this is rather off-topic, but I do agree that a Chinese military invasion of Taiwan appears to be a very poor idea for them. While I think the shielding effect of Taiwanese semi-conductor factories is rather overstated (Chinese territorial ambitions would certainly trump global supply chain impacts), they also are not currently willing to risk everything just to paint the map. I think they’ll continue pushing as much as they can, and hope that circumstances change and allow them to invade without a significant global reaction.

The timeline is hazy because China has been rapidly building up its economic and military capabilities, but so has Taiwan and other regional powers. Some strategists believe there is currently a 10 year window of opportunity for China to conquer the island before global warming, Pacific rearmament, and generational change overtake events.

bird food bathtub
Aug 9, 2003

College Slice

Dirt5o8 posted:

Along with more tanks/IFVs/jets/artillery, I'd like to see Ukraine get more haul- and engineer-assets. LMTVs (cargo trucks), heavy equipment hauling trucks, troop carriers, bulldozers, backhoe loaders, etc.

They are arguably as important as weapon systems and act as force multipliers on the attack and defense.

Cargo movers seems obvious but are crazy versatile on the attack or defense. Fuel, ammo, food, and troops always need to be moved, concentrated or dispersed. Vehicles of all types are better hauled than moved under power due to the maintenance costs.

Bulldozers, like the D7, are an absolute workhorse. Digging fighting positions, mine/obstacle clearance and emplacement, setting up logistics hubs, making combat roads and trails. They do just about everything. Same with BHLs, graders, excavators.

poo poo, just engineers and their equipment in general. Just flood Ukraine with engineer assets and trained personnel.

Bonus points; When all this poo poo is over with and Russia has hopefully hosed off back home this equipment will be right there, ready to go, for rebuilding the tragedy that is left behind.

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Charliegrs posted:

I don't think Ukraine has received many minefield breaching vehicles but they probably need literally hundreds of them.

...do you understand what you are talking about? How many such vehicles do you think even exist?

Libluini
May 18, 2012

I gravitated towards the Greens, eventually even joining the party itself.

The Linke is a party I grudgingly accept exists, but I've learned enough about DDR-history I can't bring myself to trust a party that was once the SED, a party leading the corrupt state apparatus ...
Grimey Drawer

Judgy Fucker posted:

Why has Poland moved (more) troops to the Belarussian border and amped up anti-Belarussian (or at least nationalistic?) rhetoric recently?

I keep forgetting Non-Europeans are posting here sometimes. To give you a head's up: Wagner has been acting rather aggressively lately, and Poland is deeply concerned about them sitting around in Belarus. There was at least one major incursion involving three Wagner-helicopters violating Polish airspace over a border-village, it was in the news here in Germany.


Moon Slayer posted:

I wonder if there wasn't some concern among the Baltics/Poland about Wagner in Belarus getting froggy so they decided to put on a display to remind them that actions would have consequences.

You don't have to wonder, it's exactly this

HUGE PUBES A PLUS
Apr 30, 2005

US Embassy in Belarus tells Americans in Belarus they should leave immediately. Lithuania, Poland, and Latvia closing border crossings is cited as the reason why.

EggsAisle
Dec 17, 2013

I get it! You're, uh...
The recommended actions aren't really new, they've been in place since early 2022. They've just updated some of the wording. The advice has been for Americans to leave Belarus ASAP for quite a while now.

Cpt_Obvious
Jun 18, 2007

Nenonen posted:

...do you understand what you are talking about? How many such vehicles do you think even exist?

That, indeed, seems to be the problem with this entire war.

stephenthinkpad
Jan 2, 2020

Tomn posted:

I'm a little curious how much of this is due to Russian incompetence vs inherent vulnerability, though - I seem to recall that when the Moskva was sunk there were a lot of articles about how the Russians just plain don't seem to have been awake in multiple ways when they were hit and how the defense systems weren't terribly well-designed to begin with. I wonder if the situation at sea is kind of like the "tanks are obsolete/no, Russians are just using them badly" thing?

(Also it's off-topic but if China is taking lessons from this I wonder if they're going to be more confident the USN won't hinder them, or less confident that they can successfully invade Taiwan without it becoming a fiasco.)

I think China's lesson taken from this war is drones/loitering bombs are extremely cheap way to take out stationed airplanes, both for offense and defense; mines are still as relevant as ever, both for sea mines and land mines; there is no amphibious operations so nothing to be learnt here.

Weka
May 5, 2019

That child totally had it coming. Nobody should be able to be out at dusk except cars.

mlmp08 posted:

I have taken your encouragement to heart. Do you see how below is bouncing around between different topics and switch-hitting from discussion of casualties to deaths? What are you trying to actually discuss? You should pin it down to one specific claim probably, cause as is, it's kind of all over the place.

Mea culpa my friend. You are right, my apologies. I meant deaths.

fatherboxx posted:

It is an easy and lazy gotcha to dismiss any information about the war as unreliable

What mechanisms do you think the Ukrainian state could use to assess civilian deaths in Mariupol?

Man Plan Canal posted:

I have noticed that people who are explicitly partisans of the Russian side of the conflict often refer to the Ghost of Kiev, a mostly social media driven phenomenon (even if the Ukrainian government did help perpetrate it) that lasted perhaps a week or two at the beginning of the war.
...
This doesn't mean they're right, I just can't follow your throughline. I guess my question would be, why refer to the Ghost of Kiev at all? To me this is a little bit like, upon accusing someone of murder, using their record of jaywalking as evidence of their perfidy. It just seems a bit weird! You seem a bit weird!

Your comparison at the end is a false equivalency, I said I am not condemning this practice. The Ghost of Kiev was a quick offhand example but the Ukrainian state has made larger probably false claims repeatedly. Claims of how many Russian tanks they have destroyed seem to exceed the possible number of tanks Russia could have and claims of the success rate of their air defense have been statistically unlikely.
For the record, I am also suspicious of the Russian states claims.

I have to go to work now but if these claims seem outre I can dig up their posts on the matter later. Apologies if some of this stuff has been covered in the page of the thread I didn't have time to get to but I thought it was worth replying to these.

Popete
Oct 6, 2009

This will make sure you don't suggest to the KDz
That he should grow greens instead of crushing on MCs

Grimey Drawer
Every side in every war exaggerates casualties inflicted. This is not a unique thing to Ukraine.

the holy poopacy
May 16, 2009

hey! check this out
Fun Shoe

Weka posted:

Claims of how many Russian tanks they have destroyed seem to exceed the possible number of tanks Russia could have and claims of the success rate of their air defense have been statistically unlikely.

Not saying that Ukraine's tank kill counts are necessarily accurate, but Russia was widely estimated to have a stockpile of 10,000+ tanks at the start of the war and I don't think Ukraine is claiming tens of thousands of tank kills. It does claim enough tank kills that Russia would have had to mobilize a couple thousand mothballed tanks from their storage... which is something that has demonstrably happened.

It would still assume there's some degree of inflation in Ukraine's numbers just due to the fog of war, but there's nothing inherently duplicitous in those numbers.

Young Freud
Nov 26, 2006

Gort posted:

Yes, but so can the other planes Ukraine's had all along. I'm not an airhead, but as I understand it Ukraine having F-16s is good because more planes = better than, and F-16s have generally better capabilities than the Mig-29 and Sukhoi fighters Ukraine currently uses because the superpower that built them didn't collapse in 1989.

The downside is that Ukraine's pilots aren't trained to fly F-16s, but apparently such training has been being carried out outside of Ukraine for a while now.

They could also deploy HARMs against Russian frontline air defense, allowing other aircraft to take out Russian close air support.

Moon Slayer
Jun 19, 2007

Everyone shut up about whether or not 10,000 or 9,999 civilians have been killed in Mariupol, Russia has way more important news:

Volmarias
Dec 31, 2002

EMAIL... THE INTERNET... SEARCH ENGINES...
Lol couldn't even get Sacred Band of Thebes right

Cicero
Dec 17, 2003

Jumpjet, melta, jumpjet. Repeat for ten minutes or until victory is assured.

Weka posted:

Claims of how many Russian tanks they have destroyed seem to exceed the possible number of tanks Russia could have
Why do you believe this? Estimates pre-war were that Russia had thousands upon thousands of tanks in storage. Many of them are probably in really bad condition, but if even half were in working order it could be brought to such by repairs or cannibalizing other tanks, that would still be a ton. And they are still producing new tanks, albeit relatively slowly.

Morrow
Oct 31, 2010

Volmarias posted:

Lol couldn't even get Sacred Band of Thebes right

Spartans were also so gay that their wedding night involved their brides having their heads shaved so they looked like boys, they're not wrong.

Morrow fucked around with this message at 03:59 on Aug 22, 2023

The Artificial Kid
Feb 22, 2002
Plibble

Volmarias posted:

Lol couldn't even get Sacred Band of Thebes right

Just goes to show that in two and a half thousand years nobody will accurately remember the gay super soldiers of Ukraine. What a futile conflict.

notwithoutmyanus
Mar 17, 2009

The Artificial Kid posted:

Just goes to show that in two and a half thousand years nobody will accurately remember the gay super soldiers of Ukraine. What a futile conflict.

Wait, this is actually new. He stopped calling them nazis? Now they're just gay zombies waging a jihad?

James Garfield
May 5, 2012
Am I a manipulative abuser in real life, or do I just roleplay one on the Internet for fun? You decide!

notwithoutmyanus posted:

Wait, this is actually new. He stopped calling them nazis? Now they're just gay zombies waging a jihad?

They're artificial political science gay nazi zombies waging a jihad:

quote:

“They have an artificial political science fascism created by American and British political technologists. They will turn them into zombies, into cult members. I think they will force some to become homosexuals,” Markov claimed.

“These renewed troops of Ukraine’s Armed Forces, zombified and unified through gay sex, along with cult members ready to sacrifice themselves. This is what they’re preparing for us in the spring 2025,” he added.

Just Another Lurker
May 1, 2009

Moon Slayer posted:

Everyone shut up about whether or not 10,000 or 9,999 civilians have been killed in Mariupol, Russia has way more important news:



"Theban band says Hi!!!" :byetankie:

Akratic Method
Mar 9, 2013

It's going to pay off eventually--I'm sure of it.

Any day now.

The next generation of ANTIFA supersoldiers

Family Values
Jun 26, 2007


James Garfield posted:

They're artificial political science gay nazi zombies waging a jihad:

Champions of a multipolar world just throwing all the slurs into a blender and pouring out an insult smoothie.

CatHorse
Jan 5, 2008

Akratic Method posted:

The next generation of ANTIFA supersoldiers

ANTIFA (at least in europe) is a Russian sponsored organization.

Slo-Tek
Jun 8, 2001

WINDOWS 98 BEAT HIS FRIEND WITH A SHOVEL

MikusR posted:

ANTIFA (at least in europe) is a Russian sponsored organization.

Ok. How do you imagine that works?

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa
If the next home raid of an anti-Russian homonazi doesn't reveal a collection of Army of Lovers records then I'm going to be mad with disappointment

a podcast for cats
Jun 22, 2005

Dogs reading from an artifact buried in the ruins of our civilization, "We were assholes- " and writing solemnly, "They were assholes."
Soiled Meat

Slo-Tek posted:

Ok. How do you imagine that works?

I'm not sure about all of Europe, but my understanding is that in Russia and what Russia sees as it's sphere of influence ("near abroad"), the meaning of "fascism" has been deliberately reduced to being "anti-Russian".

There's a really good effort post by vyelkin in C-SPAM, from the early days of the war, which still offers the most nuanced view of this that I have seen on these dead comedy forums. Read the entire post if you want, I've quoted the most salient part:

https://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?noseen=0&threadid=3994250&pagenumber=351&perpage=40#post521887113

quote:

vyelkin posted:

First and foremost, Putin's Russia has an unusual relationship to Nazism that differs from the way most cspammers are likely to think about Nazism. Under Putin, Russia has reconstructed its official version of history, and studies have shown that this reconstruction has also made its way into Russians' popular understandings (i.e., it isn't just an official narrative, it's also something that a lot of ordinary people have internalized to some degree). Putin's narrative of Russian history is defined by victory in WW2, which is seen as the pivotal, defining moment in Russian history. The Putin-era state is seen as the successor to the strong Soviet state that was necessary to unite the Russian nation and defeat Nazism in WW2. This narrative is stripped of the ideological context of socialism vs. fascism or the pivotal role of the Communist Party, which were central to the Soviet historical narrative. The Putin-era narrative preserves the symbols and triumphalism of the Soviet era but strips it of the ideology, instead framing it as a national struggle of Russia against Nazi Germany. It even injects current nationalist motifs that had no place in the Soviet-era narratives, like the centrality of the Orthodox Church, backwards into history. This narrative, however, fails to actually teach what Nazism was or why the Nazis wanted to invade the USSR, because it lacks the ideological basis to explain fascism vs. socialism. Putin's Russian state has no interest in glorifying communism or condemning fascism, because it is an anticommunist state whose aggressive reactionary nationalism lands closer to the ideological interests of the Nazis than of the communists (see, for one of countless examples, his reactionary speech from October condemning minority rights like protecting trans children and instead advocating for traditional models of the nation and family). It does raise up Stalin as a leader, but it does so in a way that glorifies him as a leader of the broad Russian nation rather than as a leader of Soviet communism. The scholar Nikolay Koposov describes that as follows:

The new Russian myth of WW2 also marginalizes the Holocaust and the specific nature of Nazi racial ideology in favour of promoting the broader Russian nation as the primary victims of Nazi aggression. In this narrative, Russia is both the principal victim and the principal hero in the story of WW2, because it was the Russian nation that was the primary target of the Nazi campaign for domination and it was the Russian nation that ultimately defeated the Nazis. By making this the primary myth of WW2 and by making WW2 the defining moment of the history of the Russian nation, this makes Russia an antifascist nation by default, without ever having to actually examine what antifascism means as an ideology. Koposov, again, explains the ramifications of this:

According to this model of the Russian nation, the defining attribute of Nazism is not antisemitism or racial hierarchy or reactionary social policy, the defining attribute of Nazism is being anti-Russian. Russia brands all its enemies fascist because its enemies are anti-Russian and Russia is by definition an antifascist nation. Yet by stripping out all the ideological content of what antifascism actually means, this simply sets up an idea of a civilizational clash between antifascist Russia and the fascist West, despite that clash actually being defined by geopolitics rather than by ideological struggle, as it was during the Soviet era when the USSR legitimately offered a contradictory ideology. Putin's reactionary right-wing nationalism, by contrast, has many similarities to reactionary right-wing nationalism in the West, except for the sticking point that Russia defines all its enemies as fascists by default.

And, case in point, here's a recent espionage arrest from Latvia:

https://eng.lsm.lv/article/society/crime/18.08.2023-suspected-taxi-driving-russian-spy-detained-by-latvian-security-service.a520678/

quote:

"Along with the arrest, on August 15, the VDD conducted criminal procedural activities at the person's residence, during which several data carriers were found, as well as symbols confirming the person's pro-Kremlin ideological beliefs, such as the flags of Russia and the USSR," the VDD said.

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa
Speaking of Russian interference in Europe, a Finnish right wing politician and former MP just returned from a trip to Russia and announced that he will be running for president. As his splinter party has no current members in parliament, they will have to collect 20k names in support of candidacy first. He says that they might receive help from Russia in that. I don't think that his handlers meant for him to say that part aloud...

fatherboxx
Mar 25, 2013

MikusR posted:

ANTIFA (at least in europe) is a Russian sponsored organization.

Antifa is not an organisation

Nenonen
Oct 22, 2009

Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

fatherboxx posted:

Antifa is not an organisation

Also the antifa paychecks are signed by Soros, not Putin.

Failed Imagineer
Sep 22, 2018

Nenonen posted:

Also the antifa paychecks are signed by Soros, not Putin.

Weird how I've been to Antifa marches here in Europe and no-one there looked like they'd ever seen a paycheque, let alone one from Putin

Jasper Tin Neck
Nov 14, 2008


"Scientifically proven, rich and creamy."

a podcast for cats posted:

I'm not sure about all of Europe, but my understanding is that in Russia and what Russia sees as it's sphere of influence ("near abroad"), the meaning of "fascism" has been deliberately reduced to being "anti-Russian".

Russia has tried to push that narrative for a long time, but Europe is not a place where it sticks.

Dante80
Mar 23, 2015

MikusR posted:

ANTIFA (at least in europe) is a Russian sponsored organization.

Here in Greece we'd wish we had a sponsor writing us checks for being anti-fascists.
Unfortunately, it's more of a hobby here. Soros, Putin and the NWO have forsaken us!

ought ten
Feb 6, 2004

James Garfield posted:

“These renewed troops of Ukraine’s Armed Forces, zombified and unified through gay sex, along with cult members ready to sacrifice themselves. This is what they’re preparing for us in the spring 2025,” he added.

So frustrating that the west keeps making this mistake. If we’d started zombifying and unifying last summer, the gay sex cult members would be ready this coming spring.

Cpt_Obvious
Jun 18, 2007

What conclusions are we supposed to draw from this?

quote:

For a decade, Russia has submitted a text denouncing the 'glorification of Nazism', but the resolution was particularly unpopular this year due to the war in Ukraine.


As it has every year since 2012, on Friday, November 4, the Russian Federation submitted a draft resolution before the United Nations (UN) General Assembly against the glorification of Nazism, urging vigilance against modern forms of xenophobia and reinstatement of the Third Reich.


This non-binding resolution was adopted by a majority of countries (105 votes in favor, 52 against and 15 abstentions) during the 77th session of the UN General Assembly's Committee on Social, Humanitarian and Cultural Issues, commonly known as the "Third Committee." Among the countries that voted against the text were France and all the European states, which some observers known for their positions close to the Kremlin were quick to condemn on social media.

The result of the votes of the Russian draft resolution, presented on the UN Web TV, during the 77th session of the Third Committee of the General Assembly on November 4, 2022. UN WEB TV

On Twitter on Saturday, a strong supporter of Vladimir Putin's foreign policy, former senator Yves Pozzo di Borgo, called the French decision "terrible," accusing the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs of being "in the hands and a follower of the United States." Former sovereignist presidential candidate François Asselineau, also a Moscow defender, condemned the "scandal."

Each year, this resolution is endorsed by a large majority. It was adopted on December 16, 2021, by 130 votes for, 2 against (United States and Ukraine) and 49 abstentions. While France did vote against the text for the first time this year, it had never voted for it and had always abstained, like many other Western countries.

Hieronymous Alloy
Jan 30, 2009


Why! Why!! Why must you refuse to accept that Dr. Hieronymous Alloy's Genetically Enhanced Cream Corn Is Superior to the Leading Brand on the Market!?!




Morbid Hound
Any conclusions to be drawn from Robotyne? I'm seeing lots of heartwarming pictures on the Twitters but little strategic analysis.

Szarrukin
Sep 29, 2021

MikusR posted:

ANTIFA (at least in europe) is a Russian sponsored organization.
So that's why my last check from Soros was in rubles.

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Paladinus
Jan 11, 2014

heyHEYYYY!!!

Hieronymous Alloy posted:

Any conclusions to be drawn from Robotyne? I'm seeing lots of heartwarming pictures on the Twitters but little strategic analysis.

My understanding is it has some strategic value for getting to Melitopol through Tokmak as it gives access to the main road on that path. Obviously, it's only step one.

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