(Thread IKs:
fatherboxx)
|
fatherboxx posted:4362 tanks vs current Oryx toll of 2253 I think the combination is useful to provide a range for the OSINT community. Oryx is the absolute floor; Ukraine General Staff is probably the upper end within a few percentage points. I suspect Ukraine's numbers are directionally, if not specifically, accurate. There certainly seems to be widespread reports from both Russian and Ukrainian sources that Ukraine's attrition ratio with counterbattery fire is very favorable to Ukraine.
|
#
?
Aug 23, 2023 00:22
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 6, 2024 16:36 |
|
|
Orthanc6 posted:My guess is it's pre-programmed. Otherwise, maybe they could float an antennae. Sure it's not as stealthy but it would be a lot smaller than the whole thing being on the surface. I'm assuming it only travels a few feet below the surface and has a small antenna that sticks above the water. edit: Mederlock posted:Ding ding ding. You're not compromising much on a souped up narco kamikaze submersible by having an (optionally retractable) mast with the GPS and radio antennas that just pokes above the water until it's in its terminal attack phase
|
|
#
?
Aug 23, 2023 00:23
|
|
|
Orthanc6 posted:My guess is it's pre-programmed. Otherwise, maybe they could float an antennae. Sure it's not as stealthy but it would be a lot smaller than the whole thing being on the surface. Ding ding ding. You're not compromising much on a souped up narco kamikaze submersible by having an (optionally retractable) mast with the GPS and radio antennas that just pokes above the water until it's in its terminal attack phase
|
|
#
?
Aug 23, 2023 00:23
|
|
|
https://twitter.com/TonyaLevchuk/status/1694146627416801685
|
|
#
?
Aug 23, 2023 01:48
|
|
|
The DOD sticks to the general line they've maintained for several months now:quote:Q: Thank you, General. I have two questions. I mean, previously, when -- when Ukrainians were able to push Russians away from Kyiv, the Pentagon was very keen on sharing information and perspective from this building on how successful the counter -- the defense of Kyiv was. Now, you always refer us to the Ukrainians. However, the U.S. -- American tax -- taxpayers putting big money to help Ukrainians in this fight. What is your assessment of the counter-offensive so far? Have you seen any breakthrough? And is it succeeding in achieving its goals? That's the first question. https://www.defense.gov/News/Transc...press-briefing/
|
|
#
?
Aug 23, 2023 02:06
|
|
|
Looks like they hit the Grand Tower: https://twitter.com/IntelCrab/status/1694161812588003377 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Tower_(Moscow)
|
|
#
?
Aug 23, 2023 03:11
|
|
|
So it a hit a tower under construction? It's either a message with care taken to reduce casualties, or an error.
|
|
#
?
Aug 23, 2023 03:17
|
|
|
It feels like Ukraine is starting to hit Moscow more and more regularly these days. I guess they figure that either Putin is forced to allocate assets to defend Moscow, or his paranoia will be ramped up enough to do something stupid, or people will start to see that the strongman isn't capable of protecting his capital with all that implies. In a way it sorta feels like Ukraine's answer to "What if Putin just settles in and declares forever war?" - Ukraine will take up bombing Moscow as a hobby until a peace treaty is signed. Here's hoping they stick to mostly military and government targets, which I seem to recall they mostly have been - though a hit on a skyscraper under construction at night is a bit of an odd one. A relatively casualty-free way of hitting at Putin's prestige, given that it seems to be something of a Muscovite megaproject? Edit: Looking it up it'll only be the 8th tallest building in Moscow when completed, so it's not THAT important as a prestige thing though it is still a big skyscraper and a big hole in it will likely get people wondering. Tomn fucked around with this message at 03:30 on Aug 23, 2023 |
|
#
?
Aug 23, 2023 03:26
|
|
|
Maybe we should supply Ukraine with some Cessna 172's?
|
|
#
?
Aug 23, 2023 04:39
|
|
|
Tomn posted:It feels like Ukraine is starting to hit Moscow more and more regularly these days. I guess they figure that either Putin is forced to allocate assets to defend Moscow, or his paranoia will be ramped up enough to do something stupid, or people will start to see that the strongman isn't capable of protecting his capital with all that implies. In a way it sorta feels like Ukraine's answer to "What if Putin just settles in and declares forever war?" - Ukraine will take up bombing Moscow as a hobby until a peace treaty is signed. Here's hoping they stick to mostly military and government targets, which I seem to recall they mostly have been - though a hit on a skyscraper under construction at night is a bit of an odd one. A relatively casualty-free way of hitting at Putin's prestige, given that it seems to be something of a Muscovite megaproject? My immediate question is if it has some kind of civic pride or prestige or something. Or I suppose it could be like a murder in effigy kind of thing. Showing the people of Moscow what they easily could do but are choosing to not. So far. Or possibly some UAF officer's wife ran off with the architect 10 years ago and this was somehow personal. There is the problem with these kinds of conversations that we have no way of knowing if we know all the relevant information.
|
|
#
?
Aug 23, 2023 04:53
|
|
|
Zelenskyi did basically say that attacks would continue: https://www.nbcnews.com/video/war-is-returning-to-russian-territory-zelenskyy-says-189605445627
|
|
#
?
Aug 23, 2023 05:22
|
|
|
Deltasquid posted:Belgian media are reporting that Prigozhin made a new video, claiming to be in Africa.
|
|
#
?
Aug 23, 2023 06:46
|
|
|
Xiahou Dun posted:My immediate question is if it has some kind of civic pride or prestige or something. It is a skyscraper in the business district of Moscow. It's like asking if hitting the WRC TV Tower in Washington DC is a civic prestiege thing. It's a building in the capital, it's clearly sending a message that if Ukraine wanted, they could royally gently caress up Moscow. It's a strong message and a good position in this part of the war to be in. Violence is the language that Putin works with, so Ukraine showing that they can, but they aren't, is a good bargaining position to hold if any peace talks arise.
|
|
#
?
Aug 23, 2023 09:38
|
|
|
Kikas posted:It's a building in the capital, it's clearly sending a message that if Ukraine wanted, they could royally gently caress up Moscow. Breaking a window every two-three days is not really a powerful message.
|
|
#
?
Aug 23, 2023 09:48
|
|
|
one phenomena of modern war i absolutely can't fathom is the continuing thought pattern "a) their brutal aerial campaign against our population centers has only hardened popular sentiment in favor of resistance; b) now we will threaten their population centers through an aerial campaign and weaken their wills" moscow brought down significant portions of ukraine's national energy grid during winter and is months and months into a continuous aerial siege with dozens of drones and missiles a night on major urban centers, and the general consensus is that it has had a negligible effect on the current course of the war and is probably a misallocation of resources. all it has produced is civilian casualties stretching russian anti-air thinner, and hitting military targets of opportunity will have a minor effect on the course of the war, some theoretical psychological shock to putin or moscow won't
|
|
#
?
Aug 23, 2023 10:01
|
|
|
GhostofJohnMuir posted:one phenomena of modern war i absolutely can't fathom is the continuing thought pattern "a) their brutal aerial campaign against our population centers has only hardened popular sentiment in favor of resistance; b) now we will threaten their population centers through an aerial campaign and weaken their wills" It helps if you reconsider how, and why, each side entered Russia's overconfident and unprovoked war against Ukraine; and why one side is heavily inclined to threaten but not massacre (a distinction you clearly noted but didn't seem to appreciate).
|
|
#
?
Aug 23, 2023 10:11
|
|
|
I think the thing that is preventing you fathoming it is believing all wars are the same. There is a massive difference between a war that represents an existential threat and one that is a colonial adventure. If a war is an existential threat, then attaching civilian targets has negligible value because surrender delivers little benefit (though even then there have been instances of such attacks delivering surrender). If the only real consequences of surrender are loss of face, however, there is a limit to how much risk people are willing to put themselves under.
|
|
#
?
Aug 23, 2023 10:14
|
|
|
Those drone attacks are symbolic more than anything. I could see the signal of "the war is actually real and not some far-away thing you can ignore" being potentially useful given how much Putin relies on an apathetic populace. If the deal is that they don't need to concern themselves with "politics" and Putin gets to keep doing whatever he's doing, then having "politics" blow up an empty office and air defense activating in the middle of the night might, potentially, change that dynamic. I'm not convinced of that argument myself, usually when things explode you have a rally effect…
|
|
#
?
Aug 23, 2023 10:15
|
|
|
It's not entirely true though that attacks on Russia soil or something like a drone hitting an actual government building in a city won't do anything even to a dictator like Putin. It puts stress on the entire population further re-enforcing that Ukraine isn't a small Country isn't going to stop fighting, will lower morale and keep it down.
|
|
#
?
Aug 23, 2023 10:26
|
|
|
Chronojam posted:It helps if you reconsider how, and why, each side entered Russia's overconfident and unprovoked war against Ukraine; and why one side is heavily inclined to threaten but not massacre (a distinction you clearly noted but didn't seem to appreciate). Daduzi posted:I think the thing that is preventing you fathoming it is believing all wars are the same. There is a massive difference between a war that represents an existential threat and one that is a colonial adventure. If a war is an existential threat, then attaching civilian targets has negligible value because surrender delivers little benefit (though even then there have been instances of such attacks delivering surrender). If the only real consequences of surrender are loss of face, however, there is a limit to how much risk people are willing to put themselves under. so the idea is that ukraine will either threaten or enact an air war costly enough that the highly irrational actor putin will come to acceptable terms, or the general population will feel so physically at risk that they'll turn against the security apparatus of the state? what level of air war would even be necessary to get those kind of results? and what kind of historical case studies have involved a disaffected populace suffering from strategic bombardment and then capitulating? saudi arabia in yemen maybe, and that was after having all of their proxy forces completely routed and apparently reaching some kind of general detente with iran. subjecting a population to mass violence is a quick way to turn general disaffection with a conflict into a perceived existential threat i mean christ, american's in the late 90's is the textbook case of a superpower with a population barely aware of and not particularly invested in its various colonial policies. did a massive and dramatic strike at symbols of prestige, striking terror into the entire population, make folks reconsider the policies they had no investment in? no, of course not, they experienced a moment of social and political unity not seen in generations directed solely at lashing out militarily ukraine's drone campaign can absolutely contribute to the war, but the idea that it will or could cause a mass civilian collapse in confidence is nonsense, and anyone who believes it will be as disappointed as those who thought that mass conscription or the rout at kharkiv would be some kind of decisive blow to the russian's will to fight
|
|
#
?
Aug 23, 2023 10:43
|
|
|
GhostofJohnMuir posted:one phenomena of modern war i absolutely can't fathom is the continuing thought pattern "a) their brutal aerial campaign against our population centers has only hardened popular sentiment in favor of resistance; b) now we will threaten their population centers through an aerial campaign and weaken their wills" I'd love to hear from someone in Ukraine if it's done anything to lift their spirits and morale, rather than a specific weakening of the Russian side.
|
|
#
?
Aug 23, 2023 10:45
|
|
|
Being obliged to reposition air defence far away from the front line instead of defending artillery at said front line seems like a tangible benefit. An appropriate military response would to be say: these civilian airports are strategically worthless anyway so we won't defend them against these negligible drone attacks! Ha, suckers. But then that cuts against the concept of an SMO with no real domestic costs. And anyway that is not the response Russia seems prepared to have.
|
|
#
?
Aug 23, 2023 11:05
|
|
|
GhostofJohnMuir posted:ukraine's drone campaign can absolutely contribute to the war, but the idea that it will or could cause a mass civilian collapse in confidence is nonsense, and anyone who believes it will be as disappointed as those who thought that mass conscription or the rout at kharkiv would be some kind of decisive blow to the russian's will to fight The point isn't that it's going to tell the Russian population the war is futile and they'll overthrow Putin. That's basically impossible for a ton a reasons but it will make the public, army, elites, etc. think twice and keep morale low. And keep putting it down. And morale is the most important thing in war. Ukraine is keeping the pressure high.
|
|
#
?
Aug 23, 2023 11:07
|
|
|
Antigravitas posted:Those drone attacks are symbolic more than anything. I could see the signal of "the war is actually real and not some far-away thing you can ignore" being potentially useful given how much Putin relies on an apathetic populace. If the deal is that they don't need to concern themselves with "politics" and Putin gets to keep doing whatever he's doing, then having "politics" blow up an empty office and air defense activating in the middle of the night might, potentially, change that dynamic. Crosby B. Alfred posted:It's not entirely true though that attacks on Russia soil or something like a drone hitting an actual government building in a city won't do anything even to a dictator like Putin. It puts stress on the entire population further re-enforcing that Ukraine isn't a small Country isn't going to stop fighting, will lower morale and keep it down. It doesn't, they have been extremely minor except for that memorable one that hit Kremlin. You need to understand the scale and realize that a flying pipebomb is not going to make waves in a 10 million city. Making good AA defenses (and premium jamming systems) shift to Moscow seems like the only rational goal, but I am not sure if it hasnt already been accomplished. fatherboxx fucked around with this message at 11:25 on Aug 23, 2023 |
|
#
?
Aug 23, 2023 11:22
|
|
|
What makes so sure it's extremely minor? I agree, there's obviously more value in moving air defense from the front to cities but there can be more than one reason for drone strikes. I don't know about you but if I lived in a city and I'm seeing buildings partially blown up I'm gonna get a bit nervous and further distrust leaders who claim that they are winning the war.
|
|
#
?
Aug 23, 2023 12:03
|
|
|
Crosby B. Alfred posted:What makes so sure it's extremely minor? Objective reality and results They are not "partially blown up", they amount to a couple of broken windows in an office building for filthy rich. Replacing windows in an extremely prestigious business centre is expensive but still less than a good jamming station. Chechen militants with bombings or Palestinians with Qassam rockets have achieved what you are describing but Ukraine is unlikely to resort to those tactics for obvious reasons. fatherboxx fucked around with this message at 12:21 on Aug 23, 2023 |
|
#
?
Aug 23, 2023 12:17
|
|
|
The attacks serve different purposes. Russia is waging a war of extermination and their attacks are intended to brutalize and destroy until the population gives up. This is the kind of attack that has been pointed out as not having much impact in multiple wars over the last century or so. Ukraine is attacking the domestic political agreement of "It's just a special military operation taking place far away, it doesn't mean anything to you so ignore it. Also things are going great anyway hooray Russia!" That is a much more fragile target than "We'll kill you all or else".
|
|
#
?
Aug 23, 2023 12:28
|
|
|
fatherboxx posted:Objective reality and results Almost all of them got shot down, too. Now the S400 in Crimea? That's the good stuff.
|
|
#
?
Aug 23, 2023 12:33
|
|
|
Perhaps the idea behind the attacks is that it forces the Russian government into allocating resources like anti-drone stuff into areas which are far away from the invasion zone. A couple of $20k drones with $1 pipe bombs strapped to them could force the Russian government to spend millions in in fancy anti drone zap guns. This is my financial conspiracy It's not going to make anyone in Moscow go "Boy, I really feel sorry for those Ukrainians" though.
|
|
#
?
Aug 23, 2023 12:38
|
|
|
Chill Monster posted:
Now trying for that would be fully and utterly useless.
|
|
#
?
Aug 23, 2023 12:41
|
|
|
Could just be the Ukrainians testing out what kind of operations they can successfully pull off from however far remote this thing was launched/operated.
elbkaida fucked around with this message at 13:01 on Aug 23, 2023 |
|
#
?
Aug 23, 2023 12:59
|
|
|
VideoGameVet posted:Maybe we should supply Ukraine with some Cessna 172's? Sadly we've taken this alternative off the table; the Soviets knew Rust was coming from Finnish air space, so their air defense forces were denied permission to shoot him out of the sky. Finland's in NATO now, so presumably Russia'd consider incoming craft less friendly than in the 80's.
|
|
#
?
Aug 23, 2023 13:09
|
|
|
bird food bathtub posted:The attacks serve different purposes. Russia is waging a war of extermination and their attacks are intended to brutalize and destroy until the population gives up. This is the kind of attack that has been pointed out as not having much impact in multiple wars over the last century or so. That may well be the intent, but if the attacks from Ukraine are just shrugged off in Russia as "just another day in Moscow" then it just makes Ukraine look weak.
|
|
#
?
Aug 23, 2023 13:21
|
|
|
From Die Zeit Ukraine-Liveblog: -Multiple presidents (Lithuania, Portugal) on visit in Ukraine -Ukraine managed to destroy an S-400 Anti-Air system stationed on Crimea. Ukrainian sources (drone recordings) allegedly show the detonation of the system. Apparently, the entire facility, ammunition and crew included, was lost. Edit: It seems this attack was what the leader of the Ukrainian military intelligence service, Kyrylo Budanow, hinted at, when threatening more attacks on Crimea. Libluini fucked around with this message at 13:31 on Aug 23, 2023 |
|
#
?
Aug 23, 2023 13:26
|
|
|
I don't know about Russia in specific, but in every country in the world if commercial buildings are being impacted by a hostile military force regardless of circumstances, I'm quite certain this is going to have a non-zero effect. Doing it many times is likely even moreso. What effect on the population depends on, as noted, morale of each particular country. But to brush this off as nothing seems clueless to me.
|
|
#
?
Aug 23, 2023 13:34
|
|
|
In previous attacks the Russians have claimed that they jammed the drones and caused them to hit the wrong targets, might be the same case here, the Ukrainians could have been aiming for a more militarily useful target.
|
|
#
?
Aug 23, 2023 13:56
|
|
|
notwithoutmyanus posted:I don't know about Russia in specific, but in every country in the world if commercial buildings are being impacted by a hostile military force regardless of circumstances, I'm quite certain this is going to have a non-zero effect. Doing it many times is likely even moreso. Russia launched hundreds of deadly missile strikes and shahed swarms at Kyiv, Ukraine response - a dozen or so essentially pipebomb hits in total at night on office buildings in Moscow, I dont see how it could appear as a sizeable blowback to an ordinary citizen, especially in a world where terrorist attacks in capitals have been a regular thing.
|
|
#
?
Aug 23, 2023 14:05
|
|
|
thekeeshman posted:In previous attacks the Russians have claimed that they jammed the drones and caused them to hit the wrong targets, might be the same case here, the Ukrainians could have been aiming for a more militarily useful target. Yeah. That seems like the most likely conclusion. Blowing up a rather insignificant office tower seems like a silly use of resources. From what I've read, Russia does have more electronic warfare resources than Ukraine does, which complicates the use of drones and has knock-on effects. https://www.thedefensepost.com/2023/07/27/ukraine-behind-electronic-warfare/
|
|
#
?
Aug 23, 2023 14:14
|
|
|
Libluini posted:From Die Zeit Ukraine-Liveblog: The Zeit blog also notes that the new Finnish prime minister Orpo visited Zelenskyy today. I can't find a very good English-language source for this, but according to the Finnish Broadcasting Company (in Finnish) they discussed Finland's next aid package, and Zelenskyy expressed an interest in making a similar deal as Ukraine did with Sweden about manufacturing Finnish military stuff in Ukraine, namely our armoured vehicles. Google translate posted:Maybe we have a lot we can do. We have high technology and the Ukrainians have a lot of experience, so it is really useful and a good idea, Orpo comments on the possible cooperation between Finland and Ukraine in the arms industry.
|
|
#
?
Aug 23, 2023 14:17
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 6, 2024 16:36 |
|
|
fatherboxx posted:Russia launched hundreds of deadly missile strikes and shahed swarms at Kyiv, Ukraine response - a dozen or so essentially pipebomb hits in total at night on office buildings in Moscow, I dont see how it could appear as a sizeable blowback to an ordinary citizen, especially in a world where terrorist attacks in capitals have been a regular thing. Maybe I'm being ignorant or just a guy from NY and blind to such events but are "terrorist attacks in capitals...a regular thing"?
|
|
#
?
Aug 23, 2023 14:20
|
|
