(Thread IKs:
fatherboxx)
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thotsky posted:These Prigozhin assassination conspiracy theories are beneath D&D. It's like Epstein all over again. Planes crash. The statistical likelihood of planes crashing versus plane crashes being used as assassination methods belie the difficulty in such thought. Furthermore, unlike Epstein, nerve agents, plane crashes, falling out windows have been common ways the post-Soviet Russian state has eliminated dissidents and anyone who threatens power. Being incredulous about downed airplanes is reasonable when for example the MH17 crash was found to be caused by Russia. When the opponent is willing to lie about random civilian deaths, it is not unreasonable to consider foul play on the two month anniversary of a failed coup.
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Aug 24, 2023 11:52
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Nenonen posted:GUR claims they made a commando raid in the Crimea this morning to destroy a S-400 unit Wait, again? Or are we talking about this here: Libluini posted:From Die Zeit Ukraine-Liveblog: Because that was yesterday morning, not today.
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Aug 24, 2023 11:53
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Nenonen posted:GUR claims they made a commando raid in the Crimea this morning to destroy a S-400 unit They claim that the "Special operation"t, as they call it, continues, so it's quite possible this isn't the last thing they destroyed: https://twitter.com/gloooud/status/1694630060299321557 Unfortunately, I can't find a better english source at the moment than twitter, but it's going around. The message is real, whether the claims of the message is real is still undetermined.
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Aug 24, 2023 11:54
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a podcast for cats posted:Nah, Russia Today says it could have been his pilot's Covid vaccine caused heart attack after all. is this really on RT, haha
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Aug 24, 2023 11:58
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So entirely hypothetically, if Ukraine made some gains in Crimea, how big of a deal would that be? Like, if these reports are legit, how much does this matter if at all?
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Aug 24, 2023 12:05
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SamuraiFoochs posted:So entirely hypothetically, if Ukraine made some gains in Crimea, how big of a deal would that be? Like, if these reports are legit, how much does this matter if at all? Those wouldn't be gains, it would be a raid that may be blew up some stuff and promptly left.
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Aug 24, 2023 12:08
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SamuraiFoochs posted:So entirely hypothetically, if Ukraine made some gains in Crimea, how big of a deal would that be? Like, if these reports are legit, how much does this matter if at all? These guys land, launch some fpv drones on expensive targets and leave It's not about taking land. CeeJee fucked around with this message at 12:14 on Aug 24, 2023 |
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Aug 24, 2023 12:09
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CeeJee posted:These guys land, lauch some fpv drones on expensive targets and leave It's not about taking land. Makes more sense, but what's the objective then?
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Aug 24, 2023 12:10
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Djarum posted:I think it is more that the Russian military aren’t going to die to protect Putin. The best scenario is what we saw last time; none of them do anything. I said right after the coup was aborted, when Prigo gets got, his successor has perhaps the only chance you'll ever see of turning Wagner from mercs into a group with something resembling an ideological goal. Play up a whole thing about how the boss had wanted to raise attention to the unnecessary dangers they were in and, believing he had done so, stood down nobly before any substantial amount of blood was spilled, knowing that it put him at risk to do so. Now Putin has not only reneged on that deal but has indeed had their leader killed, which is both engaging to them, insulting, and a demonstration that as long as Vlad is in power none of them can be confident of their safety. I don't think this renewed march has been corroborated but if it is real, I wouldn't be surprised to find they have a lot more fervor as well as the iron logic that they can't stop this time. This isn't to say they'd succeed, mark you. Just that if they try again, there might not be any turning them around.
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Aug 24, 2023 12:11
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SamuraiFoochs posted:Makes more sense, but what's the objective then? Blow up expensive poo poo.
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Aug 24, 2023 12:12
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SamuraiFoochs posted:So entirely hypothetically, if Ukraine made some gains in Crimea, how big of a deal would that be? Like, if these reports are legit, how much does this matter if at all? There’s no way this is an invasion force occupying land. We would have seen a big invasion fleet with landing craft if that were the case. These guys are just doing sabotage behind enemy lines.
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Aug 24, 2023 12:12
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SamuraiFoochs posted:Makes more sense, but what's the objective then? Hearts and minds.
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Aug 24, 2023 12:12
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Gervasius posted:Blow up expensive poo poo. Supposedly blow up more S-400 components, but we don't actually have physical evidence of that. Also presumably to divert some resources....
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Aug 24, 2023 12:13
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SamuraiFoochs posted:Makes more sense, but what's the objective then? There's a saying that to 'defend everywhere is to defend nowhere'. Raids like this try to force your enemy to defend everywhere. Also S-400s are valuable strategically and expensive to replace.
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Aug 24, 2023 12:13
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That all makes sense. Thanks for the answers, I am dumb about war. Cheers.
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Aug 24, 2023 12:15
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Reports in Norwegian media that Norway is donating F-16s to Ukraine. The prime minister is in Kyiv at the moment, so presumably a formal announcement with actual numbers today, but I think there are only a dozen not already sold to private actors or Romania.
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Aug 24, 2023 12:24
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Prigman, prigman Haha, charcoal you are
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Aug 24, 2023 12:28
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Happy Independence Day to Ukraine! May the next one happen in happier times, preferably with a huge beach party in Crimea.
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Aug 24, 2023 12:32
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SamuraiFoochs posted:Makes more sense, but what's the objective then? It's about sending a message; "gtf out of here" and making sure the enemy never feels safe. 
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Aug 24, 2023 12:45
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Gervasius posted:Blow up expensive poo poo. Looks like they blew up a permanent radar station the Russian's built after 2014. Which probably put a VERY big hole in their air defence and I doubt they have many mobile stations around left to fill it. Anything left in reserve would have already been committed.
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Aug 24, 2023 12:56
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Comstar posted:Looks like they blew up a permanent radar station the Russian's built after 2014. Which probably put a VERY big hole in their air defence and I doubt they have many mobile stations around left to fill it. Not doubting what you saw but do you have the source? That a pretty significant claim by Ukraine and a spot on assessment of a huge problem for Russia if true. Edit: significant because mobile platforms are super useful and if planted on the high ground get very good coverage. They are limited by the power they can push into the air though since they can't generally link into a power grid. Stationary radar sites are crazy powerful detection assets and losing one can be like starting an avalanche if you can't plug the hole. If true, Ukraine can essentially start chewing the air defenses up from that former coverage site outward, like an expanding bubble. It's a feedback loop of lost coverage, lose one, less detection, so you lose more. (My source: worked closely with some Air Defense officers for an exercise. We got drunk and talked shop, this is what I remember. And yeah, we were all huge nerds to be talking about it) Dirt5o8 fucked around with this message at 13:24 on Aug 24, 2023 |
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Aug 24, 2023 13:18
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hey mom its 420 posted:is this really on RT, haha
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Aug 24, 2023 13:25
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Dirt5o8 posted:Not doubting what you saw but do you have the source? That a pretty significant claim by Ukraine and a spot on assessment of a huge problem for Russia if true. https://twitter.com/michaelh992/status/1694624127720587377 No idea how reputable this guy is, haven’t heard of him before and phoneposting so I won’t dig into his credentials right now
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Aug 24, 2023 13:26
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Can't access rt.com, but the Serbian RT posted a very neutral article, not speculating anything about the possible cause of the plane crash. You can barely find it among a billion BRICS news. BTW, I didn't expect the mutiny to start, I didn't expect it to end so abruptly, I didn't expect it to have such a milquetoast immediate aftermath, and I didn't expect Prig to be assassinated later. I thought there was some 5 dimensional chess going on and that he was too smart and had rock solid assurances this wouldn't happen.
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Aug 24, 2023 13:41
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Would you look at that, the enjoyer of shark jokes personally benefits from doing business with Russia https://news.err.ee/1609073804/company-part-owned-by-estonian-pm-s-husband-continues-deliveries-to-russia quote:Stark Logistics, a transport company partly owned by Prime Minister Kaja Kallas' (Reform) husband Arvo Hallik, has continued doing business with Russia since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. This is despite government criticism of companies that have done so.
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Aug 24, 2023 13:46
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Doctor Malaver posted:BTW, I didn't expect the mutiny to start, I didn't expect it to end so abruptly, I didn't expect it to have such a milquetoast immediate aftermath, and I didn't expect Prig to be assassinated later. I thought there was some 5 dimensional chess going on and that he was too smart and had rock solid assurances this wouldn't happen. I was with you up until this part. I didn't think Wagner would mutiny against Putin, and once it started I thought it couldn't stop since everyone involved must realise that once you've declared a mutiny you've set yourself on a course whereby the end point is the death of either you or Putin. Once the mutiny started, Prigozhin or Putin was doomed.
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Aug 24, 2023 14:15
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My theory (very serious) is that Putin killed the hot dog guy to humiliate Lukashenko, because Lukashenko had bragged about how he had negotiated Prigozhin's freedom etc., and obviously putin can't tolerate some provincial dog catcher talking about exerting influence over him or even just having any achievements at all.
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Aug 24, 2023 14:44
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I don't think you need to get more convoluted with the theories beyond: the Putin-led mafia state values loyalty above everything else, and Prig marching on Moscow was seen as a betrayal by Putin.
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Aug 24, 2023 15:08
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TheRat posted:My main question to that is: Were Prigozhin masks kept in stock? Apparently they were just cheap printed jobbies
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Aug 24, 2023 15:23
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hey mom its 420 posted:is this really on RT, haha
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Aug 24, 2023 15:53
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My conspiracy theory is that putin killed this guy dead. I know, it's pretty out there but
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Aug 24, 2023 16:14
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Yesterday's update from Reporting From Ukraine has some background on Ukrainian small boat operations right around that exact spot in Crimea for some reason. They've apparently been using abandoned oil rigs as platforms. Which would explain a lot about where are and sea drones have been coming from. The video thumbnails for this channel always look like clickbait. Blame the algorithm, the content is solid. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4bC51Lo0PRE
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Aug 24, 2023 16:18
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fatherboxx posted:Kyiv Independent is a poo poo source and they link here to basically a Ukrainian propaganda outlet, so it is best to ignore since it is most likely fantasy clickbait To clarify, because the headline makes it a bit ambiguous, but the primary source doesn't say that Wagner are preparing for another march on Moscow, only that their little camp disappeared. This was later confirmed with satellite photos. https://www.svaboda.org/a/32562788.html They might just be moving to another location inside Belarus, but closer to the border.
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Aug 24, 2023 18:30
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Paladinus posted:To clarify, because the headline makes it a bit ambiguous, but the primary source doesn't say that Wagner are preparing for another march on Moscow, only that their little camp disappeared. This was later confirmed with satellite photos. I read somewhere that the Wagner subordinates looted the main office. I wouldn't be surprised if the whole Wagner setup just dissolves into nothing.
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Aug 24, 2023 18:41
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https://twitter.com/michellelprice/status/1694764800687985008?t=PBUP5kXaCAOtlxLosOG78Q&s=19 You don't say.
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Aug 24, 2023 18:52
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BREAKING Foreign ministry issues warning to citizens travelling in Russia on private jets with insubordinate PMC leaders.
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Aug 24, 2023 18:55
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daslog posted:I read somewhere that the Wagner subordinates looted the main office. I wouldn't be surprised if the whole Wagner setup just dissolves into nothing. A lot of them were only out of prison because of Prigozhin so I dont know how that works next. If they want to go back to Russia they probably have to enroll formally into the Russian military or go back to prison? Or Disappear. Probably a lot of disappearing or joining mercenary groups in africa and elsewhere. Is my layman's idiots guess.
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Aug 24, 2023 18:56
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Moon Slayer posted:https://twitter.com/michellelprice/status/1694764800687985008?t=PBUP5kXaCAOtlxLosOG78Q&s=19 But why would Russia blow up its own warlord?
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Aug 24, 2023 18:56
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Cheated mercenaries rarely just disappear into the ether. Usually they just trash the government that ripped them off. Machiavelli observed this. Who knows if the Wagner solders were ripped-off financially, but I assure you a lot of them feel victimized. A bunch of seasoned psychotic murders feeling victimized by the Russian government strikes me as a very negative bellwether for stability in Russia. Even if they no longer have an effect on the current war, my money is that they are going to be a tumor on the Russian government's rear end for a while. Chill Monster fucked around with this message at 18:59 on Aug 24, 2023 |
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Aug 24, 2023 18:56
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Yiggy posted:A lot of them were only out of prison because of Prigozhin so I dont know how that works next. If they want to go back to Russia they probably have to enroll formally into the Russian military or go back to prison? Or Disappear. Probably a lot of disappearing or joining mercenary groups in africa and elsewhere. Is my layman's idiots guess. They were granted pardon the moment they signed the contract with Wagner, so they can either join the military or just try to live a normal life. Nobody's going back to prison.
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Aug 24, 2023 18:59
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