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Impossibly Perfect Sphere posted:Sometimes they're right and you get a Saquan rookie season, but more often you get a CEH. CEH is more the outlier for rookie RBs with top 15 or so fantasy ADP. Barkley, Zeke, and Najee were RB4 or better. Bijan is as good a prospect or better than any of them and he got drafted 1.08 by the most run heavy team last year.
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Aug 24, 2023 17:17
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This happened during my main home league draft and the room went loving wild. My only regret is that nobody had taken Luck yet, that would have been the most incredible draft day own. "Hey remember that time your team sucked so bad your QB instantly retired rather than be a part of it"
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Aug 24, 2023 17:49
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I want to die https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/1694758438360719796
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Aug 24, 2023 18:11
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Lmao at touching DEN this year. Payton gonna get exposed like BillyB.
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Aug 24, 2023 18:35
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Docjowles posted:This happened during my main home league draft and the room went loving wild. My only regret is that nobody had taken Luck yet, that would have been the most incredible draft day own. "Hey remember that time your team sucked so bad your QB instantly retired rather than be a part of it" Yea this happened a few minutes after my big money draft and oh boy were we dunking on the guy that took him hard.
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Aug 24, 2023 19:01
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freeman posted:CEH is more the outlier for rookie RBs with top 15 or so fantasy ADP. Barkley, Zeke, and Najee were RB4 or better. This. If you aren't taking Bijan 1.04, you are a coward.
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Aug 24, 2023 19:32
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Hey Sean, we have TreQuan Smith over here for a low low price. You know you want him.
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Aug 24, 2023 19:44
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freeman posted:CEH is more the outlier for rookie RBs with top 15 or so fantasy ADP. Barkley, Zeke, and Najee were RB4 or better. Rookie RBs fantasy seasons since 2000. https://www.si.com/fantasy/2023/04/19/2023-nfl-draft-rookie-running-backs-fantasy-success  quote:Saquon Barkley leads all first-year runners in our research with an average of 24.1 points per game. He’s one of two backs (Ezekiel Elliott in 2016) to average over 20 points. Martin was close at 19.5 in his rookie campaign, while three others (Adrian Peterson in 2007, Leonard Fournette in 2017 and Harris) averaged more than 17. In all, 12 of 51 first-round backs have averaged more than 14.9 PPR points per game.
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Aug 24, 2023 20:04
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I have both my big money drafts coming up in a couple hours (One keeper, one Dynasty). Anyone have any late round sleepers in either league I should keep an eye out for?
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Aug 24, 2023 21:41
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Jalin Hyatt in dynasty
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Aug 24, 2023 22:34
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RCarr posted:I have both my big money drafts coming up in a couple hours (One keeper, one Dynasty). Dynasty is a rookie draft. Where are you picking? kiimo posted:Jalin Hyatt in dynasty My man!
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Aug 24, 2023 22:44
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RCarr posted:I have both my big money drafts coming up in a couple hours (One keeper, one Dynasty). Apparently Michael Wilson on the Cardinals is getting a ton of hype. But this requires a massive leap of faith in either Kyler coming back quickly or his absolute garbage backups running a competent offense
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Aug 24, 2023 22:48
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My dynasty league drafting a week after the actual draft this year is such a game changer. Not only was everyone fresh from watching the actual draft, it's been a delight all preseason. Like, to make fun of the dude who took Levis in the first, for example. kiimo fucked around with this message at 23:10 on Aug 24, 2023 |
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Aug 24, 2023 23:03
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Docjowles posted:Apparently Michael Wilson on the Cardinals is getting a ton of hype. But this requires a massive leap of faith in either Kyler coming back quickly or his absolute garbage backups running a competent offense Imagine taking the guy who has played 8 games his last two years of college. Michael Wilson got hurt in the time it took to make this post.
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Aug 24, 2023 23:09
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Sataere posted:Dynasty is a rookie draft. Where are you picking? 9th Turns into snake after the 3rd round. It’s rookies and free agents but there’s no notable free agents in the pool.
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Aug 24, 2023 23:51
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RCarr posted:9th For middle late round dynasty guys Cedric Tillman, Kayshawn Boutte both had some elite college time derailed by injuries. They both likely make their teams (Browns and Pats respectively) and there's room for them to carve out real playing time in the next 2-3 years with tons of upside. I wouldn't expect much this year with either.
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Aug 25, 2023 00:04
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RCarr posted:I have both my big money drafts coming up in a couple hours (One keeper, one Dynasty).
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Aug 25, 2023 00:09
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ADP for Drake London seems weirdly low. run first team and all, but it’s a vastly improved offensive lineup with him and his QB going into year 2 together. what gives? I’m enjoy getting him in the 6th as WR2/3
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Aug 25, 2023 00:16
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People keep conflating "first round rbs tend tobe bad" with "all first round rbs tend to be bad." In fact, all rbs taken at #12 or earlier in the past 8 years have had monster seasons. Now that's just four, but it's all four.
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Aug 25, 2023 00:20
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pmchem posted:ADP for Drake London seems weirdly low. run first team and all, but it’s a vastly improved offensive lineup with him and his QB going into year 2 together. what gives? I’m enjoy getting him in the 6th as WR2/3 How many targets do you think he's going to have per game?
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Aug 25, 2023 00:22
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Impossibly Perfect Sphere posted:How many targets do you think he's going to have per game? he averaged almost 10 targets a game the last 5 games of the season, which includes the entire span of D-Rid's starts if he averages 8/game that's nearly 140 targets, which is a healthy WR1 volume. AJB in his 2nd year, in an Arthur Smith offense, got 7.6 tgts/game and he suffered an early season knee injury that surely affected game plans. plus he had some weird week 10 thing where he didn't get the start and only got 4 targets. the team has zero other receiving target hog threats other than perennial disappointment and route-deprived Kyle Pitts like I dunno they drafted him top 10 just last year and fed him at end of season, I guess I don't expect targets to dry up when the overall offense gets... better?
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Aug 25, 2023 01:05
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In my only draft so far in .5 PPR Drake went in the early 5th.
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Aug 25, 2023 01:10
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Drunk Nerds posted:People keep conflating "first round rbs tend tobe bad" with "all first round rbs tend to be bad." This is kind of where I was leaning, there is a profound difference in expectation between a RB drafted in the top 10 and one drafted near the end of the round. Even if they are JAG, they will be force fed the ball to a productive season so the GM does not look dumb.
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Aug 25, 2023 01:15
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You are receiving this broadcast as a dream...We are transmitting from the year one nine... nine nine ...You are receiving this broadcast in order t
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I am in a .5 PPR league. I have the first pick this year, and my two keepers are AJ Brown (costs me my second round pick) and Rhamondre Stevenson (6th round). I am loving torn on who to grab first, I feel like with Brown, I should go either CMC or Kelce, but also feel like that's stupid and I should go JJ or Chase. Please help, I am dumb because of choice paralysis.
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Aug 25, 2023 03:02
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Handsome Ralph posted:I am in a .5 PPR league. I have the first pick this year, and my two keepers are AJ Brown (costs me my second round pick) and Rhamondre Stevenson (6th round).
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Aug 25, 2023 03:15
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I dunno I'd be hard pressed not to take CMC. Kelce is 33 and though he shows no signs of slowing I feel like getting ahead of that sort of thing is smart.
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Aug 25, 2023 03:23
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RCarr posted:9th SF or 1QB? If SF, I am eyeing Charbonnet and Zay Flowers there. Addison and QJ are also decent options in that spot. Dalton Kincaid is a guy people are hot on too. Might even take a flyer on a QB if one drops and you need one. Especially if AR somehow falls (he won't)
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Aug 25, 2023 03:23
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kiimo posted:I dunno I'd be hard pressed not to take CMC. Yeah Kelce I'm not very high on. I think he's TE1 for sure, but I also think waiting a round or two and going for Andrews is a better idea. Honestly it's more of a contest between JJ/Chase or CMC. I am wary of CMC getting hurt yet again though.
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Aug 25, 2023 03:26
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Handsome Ralph posted:I am in a .5 PPR league. I have the first pick this year, and my two keepers are AJ Brown (costs me my second round pick) and Rhamondre Stevenson (6th round). To me it is Justin Jefferson or CMC. I think CMC is the ceiling play and JJ is the floor play. I also think people are overreacting to last year with Kelce and you are buying him at his ceiling. Never buy guys at their ceiling when they play tight end because if he gets hurt, you are hosed. Yeah, he never has been hurt, but early first Kelce puts a huge cap on your overall ceiling so if anything goes wrong, you need to have a near perfect draft to cover the risk. I think third round Andrews is a way better investment.
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Aug 25, 2023 03:30
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I mean, CMC had 315 fantasy points last season and I feel like he had a lot more to give. I'm in no first pick position so I don't have to think about it but in PPR CMC is fire
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Aug 25, 2023 03:35
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Sataere posted:To me it is Justin Jefferson or CMC. I think CMC is the ceiling play and JJ is the floor play. I don't agree with the injury part. But yeah, your observation that the pendulum for Kelce only swings from "steal McDeal" to "can only return value at his ceiling" from year to year is spot on for any top TE. Based on that, and a poo poo ton of tape watching, Mark Andrews is the Steal McDeal and Kelce is the Can Only Return Value at his Ceiling for 2023
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Aug 25, 2023 03:43
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Handsome Ralph posted:Yeah Kelce I'm not very high on. I think he's TE1 for sure, but I also think waiting a round or two and going for Andrews is a better idea. It's incredible how fast everyone forgot that CMC is always injured. He's being drafted like he's ironman, all of a sudden. Spoiler: He's not ironman. I actually was able to enjoy his last season -- and he helped me win my first championship in years... but, I'm just being realistic... it's probably not happening again this year for him.
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Aug 25, 2023 05:08
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We are also sweeping Shanihanigans under the rug. I'm glad I'm in no position to take CMC.
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Aug 25, 2023 05:11
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Matt Zerella posted:We are also sweeping Shanihanigans under the rug. I'm glad I'm in no position to take CMC. when Eli Mitchell was healthy, it wasn't all that fun watching CMC be taken out near the goal line -- multiple times. That is also nearly being completely ignored. This could fall under the Shanahanigans, though.
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Aug 25, 2023 05:17
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Impossibly Perfect Sphere posted:Rookie RBs fantasy seasons since 2000. Kiss your Doug Martin pillow good night, everyone. It's for good luck.
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Aug 25, 2023 05:18
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I’m not drafting CMC even if he falls to me He might stay healthy but I’m not going to roll the dice on that
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Aug 25, 2023 05:20
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Docjowles posted:This happened during my main home league draft and the room went loving wild. My only regret is that nobody had taken Luck yet, that would have been the most incredible draft day own. "Hey remember that time your team sucked so bad your QB instantly retired rather than be a part of it" I had just finished my draft in a 2QB league where I had drafted Luck when the news came out 
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Aug 25, 2023 05:53
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In my 10 team half ppr keeper league I kept Chase in the 5th and Olave in the 14th. Picking from the 5th spot I got CMC, Taylor, Josh Allen, and Mattinson with my first 4 picks. Feel real good about it. Obviously Taylor is a risk but accounting for keepers I basically got him at a 4th round value which I absolutely was not passing up. Surprised CMC fell to 1.5 also. Jefferson, Kelce, Saquon, and Ekeler went ahead of me. My team: QB- Allen RB- CMC RB- Taylor WR- Chase WR- Olave WR- Mike Williams FLEX- Mattinson TE- Engram D/ST- Cowboys K- Myers B- London B- Dalvin Cook B- Burks B- Cooks B- Jeff Wilson B- Bateman B- Hyatt B- Rondale Moore Have to drop 2 bench players for IDP guys. Same as every year, looking at my team after the draft I am confident I will obviously win the championship. I’m usually against taking a QB early but with 2 stud WR’s and RB’s I figured why not.
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Aug 25, 2023 06:57
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kiimo posted:Jalin Hyatt in dynasty What about redraft? I don't feel great about my receiver room this year and I think stacking guys with upside has got to be the way for me. Is he worth a roster spot as a flier?
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Aug 25, 2023 09:46
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Is there an overall #1 who you AREN'T worried about injury or regression? I'm thinking JJ is like the only one which will surely jinx him just by writing that. Bumhead posted:What about redraft? I'm not sure I'd take any rookie WR in redraft unless they're generational. I do realize you can't really tell if they're generational until the season is over but I'm pretty comfortable saying Hyatt is not.
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Aug 25, 2023 15:30
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