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Staluigi
Jun 22, 2021

What a goddamn night jesus. What a week even

Get to fuckin hang around and just casually see "obviously going in future textbooks" poo poo coming out on the regular culminating in trump doing his best interpretation of looking tough, which perhaps ONLY INCIDENTALLY looks like a kubrick high angle stare for villains

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pthighs
Jun 21, 2013

Pillbug
I'm no big city publicist but that mug shot seems like it will have a repulsive effect on anyone who is not an absolute MAGA diehard. And, unlike a lot of news, everybody in the country will see it in the next few days.

Republicans
Oct 14, 2003

- More money for us

- Fuck you


pthighs posted:

I'm no big city publicist but that mug shot seems like it will have a repulsive effect on anyone who is not an absolute MAGA diehard. And, unlike a lot of news, everybody in the country will see it in the next few days.

I'm surprised Trump is putting it unedited on shirts. I imagine they're gonna photoshop and stylize the hell out of future versions to hide how much it looks like he was crying.

Fart Amplifier
Apr 12, 2003

pthighs posted:

I'm no big city publicist but that mug shot seems like it will have a repulsive effect on anyone who is not an absolute MAGA diehard. And, unlike a lot of news, everybody in the country will see it in the next few days.

I see no reason to think of this after the last 7 years of him having good support despite far more repulsive things.

Republicans posted:

I'm surprised Trump is putting it unedited on shirts. I imagine they're gonna photoshop and stylize the hell out of future versions to hide how much it looks like he was crying.

They think it makes him look good.

Xaiter
Dec 16, 2007

Everything is AWESOME!

this is a screenshot of a word document. he actually posted this as his big comeback on Twitter for fundraising

even with zero expectations this is a disappointing amount of effort

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

NOW NO ONE
RECOGNIZE HULK

pthighs posted:

I'm no big city publicist but that mug shot seems like it will have a repulsive effect on anyone who is not an absolute MAGA diehard. And, unlike a lot of news, everybody in the country will see it in the next few days.

The Mug a shot isn't doing any more damage than the 90+ indictments already have.

Tayter Swift
Nov 18, 2002

Pillbug

Xaiter posted:

this is a screenshot of a word document. he actually posted this as his big comeback on Twitter for fundraising

even with zero expectations this is a disappointing amount of effort

to be fair it worked

Gyges
Aug 4, 2004

NOW NO ONE
RECOGNIZE HULK

You'd think they would include some sort of qualifier to at least imply he isn't guilty and swearing an oath to never stop criming.

Nieuw Amsterdam
Dec 1, 2006

Dignité. Toujours, dignité.

NEVER SURRENDER, I say as I surrender to the authorities and get booked at the Fulton County Jail.

The Artificial Kid
Feb 22, 2002
Plibble

Gyges posted:

You'd think they would include some sort of qualifier to at least imply he isn't guilty and swearing an oath to never stop criming.

Haha holy poo poo I didn’t even notice that. It’s literally a confession.

The Artificial Kid fucked around with this message at 09:51 on Aug 25, 2023

SamuraiFoochs
Jan 16, 2007




Grimey Drawer

Gyges posted:

The Mug a shot isn't doing any more damage than the 90+ indictments already have.

You never know. Seriously, Trump needs all the help he can get to win a general. This obviously isn't helping.

Discendo Vox
Mar 21, 2013

This does not make sense when, again, aggregate indicia also indicate improvements. The belief that things are worse is false. It remains false.
hah, they got this all screwed up.

Ms Adequate
Oct 30, 2011

Baby even when I'm dead and gone
You will always be my only one, my only one
When the night is calling
No matter who I become
You will always be my only one, my only one, my only one
When the night is calling



Discendo Vox posted:

hah, they got this all screwed up.



Beautiful :golfclap:

Failed Imagineer
Sep 22, 2018

SamuraiFoochs posted:

You never know. Seriously, Trump needs all the help he can get to win a general. This obviously isn't helping.

Agreed, in a close election it's hard to dispositively say that one particular thing clinched it.

Like in Bush v Gore yeah it was ¡Jeb!/James Baker/Roger Stone/The Supreme Court/the Butterfly Ballots that stole it.

But it was also the Wetlands and Nader and Elian Gonzales and a bunch of other ways that Gore sucked which cost him an easy win

Aphex-
Jan 29, 2006

Dinosaur Gum

Youremother posted:

First thing I did when the mugshot dropped was start loving around with it in FaceApp



coelomate
Oct 21, 2020


Watching the debate and the criminal proceedings unfold, I think the 2024 Republican primary is basically "stay alive and hope Donald J. Trump becomes so obviously unelectable or incarcerated that the dynamic changes." The remaining candidates basically didn't go after him, at least not in a way that would sway a voter. The calculus has to be that with 4 trials something is gonna knock Trump out of the race and there's no reason to look like you were helping at the risk of alienating his fans that you do one day want to be your voters.

Bonkers.

Judge Schnoopy
Nov 2, 2005

dont even TRY it, pal
"hopefully the daily news and social media coverage of his trials will put him in the back seat of the GOP nomination" is a miserable strategy lmao

MuscaDomestica
Apr 27, 2017

Failed Imagineer posted:

He plays more cerebral boardgames



The board game that essentially destroyed the market for non children board games in the 90s. He convinced Milton Bradley to do a massive release with commercials and millions of copies. It sold horribly. It plays sort of like Monopoly but more random so there is no real long term strategy in a game that takes over an hour to play. Wasn't until Settler of Catan came out to make people interested in non party games again.
::edit::
His share of the profits of the game was donated to charity which happened to be the Trump foundation.

MuscaDomestica fucked around with this message at 12:40 on Aug 25, 2023

smackfu
Jun 7, 2004

Boris Galerkin posted:

Am I understanding right that tromp paid a dumbfuck $20k, who then went around and paid the jail $200k? I mean I guess they’ll eventually get the $200k back cause it’s like a deposit but the master businessman will be out $20k+ forever?

Interesting thing is that they have a program where you are your own bail bondsman:

quote:

The third option available to defendants is the “Fulton County Jail 10% program,” which allows a defendant to pay just 10% of their total bond amount – plus fees and other associated costs.

I think these programs exist because bail bondsman tend to be sketchy but people were effectively forced to use them by the state.

You still need 10% in cash, which can be hard to get. Compared to a bail bondsman that can get flexible with how you pay your 10% fee to them, like they can take credit cards.

Not that if you don’t show up, you owe the full bail amount. I guess they would seize assets, since you are a fugitive at that point.

Randalor
Sep 4, 2011



So if you feel like you're innocent and just, go with the county option. If you're planning on skipping out and fleeing to, say, Russia, use a bail bondsman. Got it.

FizFashizzle
Mar 30, 2005







I think the most obvious answer is he never pays back his debts and he knows the SS will protect him from someone coming after him and breaking his fingers.

Daduzi
Nov 22, 2005

You can't hide from the Grim Reaper. Especially when he's got a gun.

FizFashizzle posted:

I think the most obvious answer is he never pays back his debts and he knows the SS will protect him from someone coming after him and breaking his fingers.

Are you referring to the Secret Service or...

Nieuw Amsterdam
Dec 1, 2006

Dignité. Toujours, dignité.

Judge Schnoopy posted:

"hopefully the daily news and social media coverage of his trials will put him in the back seat of the GOP nomination" is a miserable strategy lmao

There isn’t any other strategy available.

GOP did a wonderful job of boxing themselves in by agreeing with his insanity that he never did anything wrong and he won, actually.

So you can’t say Trump lost, we need a new direction.

And you can’t say Trump performed poorly, I’ll do better.

Now you have to spend the next year saying it’s totally unfair and inappropriate he’s on trial (for crimes he obviously did).

If Trump is in prison, he’s running. If he somehow loses the nomination, he’s running third party.

The real miracle they are all praying for is that somehow Trump substantially outperforms 2020, meaning he got MORE POPULAR in the last four years and does better than in the largest turnout election in U.S. history.

And he’s going to accomplish this with four felony trials and running around saying “Yeah it was me, I killed Roe.”

FLIPADELPHIA
Apr 27, 2007

Heavy Shit
Grimey Drawer
They're also betting on another possibility, which is democratic turnout / enthusiasm waning. That's far more likely than Trump getting more votes.

All that's necessary for Trump to win is slightly less turnout for Biden in a few key states. A Trump win next year is far more plausible than many here are acknowledging. There are several possible scenarios that could tip the scales: inflation picking back up, even for a month or two, a legit Biden health scare or undeniably bad public performance, or just a general economic downturn (which is always possible at any moment because no one understands the economy) could all hand the election to him. His supporters aren't abandoning him, no matter what. They will double down until they're all dead.

Ravenfood
Nov 4, 2011

FLIPADELPHIA posted:

They're also betting on another possibility, which is democratic turnout / enthusiasm waning. That's far more likely than Trump getting more votes.

Or just more and better voter suppression.

Main Paineframe
Oct 27, 2010

Judge Schnoopy posted:

"hopefully the daily news and social media coverage of his trials will put him in the back seat of the GOP nomination" is a miserable strategy lmao

Maybe, but there isn't really any other strategy. Trump is like a god to the GOP's hardcore base. As long as his popularity with the base holds out, nobody has even a prayer of a chance at challenging him.

But if his popularity among the base collapses, or something else happens to make him unable to run, then suddenly it's an open field and every remotely ambitious dumbass will clowncar into the race. If that happens, then people who were already in the race running against Trump will have a huge advantage, because they would have had a chance to establish themselves as Trump alternatives before the clowncar primary turns into absolute chaos.

If his popularity doesn't collapse, his challengers don't really have much of a chance. But it doesn't really hurt them that much to throw their hats into the ring just in case he does become vulnerable. At least unless you're a charisma black hole like DeSantis and draw his ire enough to get an insulting nickname from him.

Fork of Unknown Origins
Oct 21, 2005
Gotta Herd On?

FLIPADELPHIA posted:

They're also betting on another possibility, which is democratic turnout / enthusiasm waning. That's far more likely than Trump getting more votes.

All that's necessary for Trump to win is slightly less turnout for Biden in a few key states. A Trump win next year is far more plausible than many here are acknowledging. There are several possible scenarios that could tip the scales: inflation picking back up, even for a month or two, a legit Biden health scare or undeniably bad public performance, or just a general economic downturn (which is always possible at any moment because no one understands the economy) could all hand the election to him. His supporters aren't abandoning him, no matter what. They will double down until they're all dead.

Yes, particularly this far out, with lots of time for an economic downturn, some sort of gaffes that make people question Biden’s sharpness even more, or any number of things to happen it’s impossible to tell what the election will look like.

I think Trump does somewhat insulate Democratic enthusiasm because a lot of people can get excited to vote against him even if they aren’t excited to vote for Biden (hi, it’s me) but will that be enough? Depends on how bad other things go.

I’m not sure how anyone is looking at the polls, at how close 2020 was, at the time left, and thinking Biden has it in the bag.

bird food bathtub
Aug 9, 2003

College Slice
I suspect a not-insignificant amount of the contenders are also doing the math on a geriatric, obese, narcissistic-raging rear end in a top hat that sucks down hamberders all day while thinking exercise depletes your body battery and figuring they've got a more than decent shot at the base's tangerine dream dropping dead at a convenient time. Once he's dead they'll have a, probably metaphorical, knife fight to take the torch out of his still cooling hand and run with it.

Scratch Monkey
Oct 25, 2010

👰Proč bychom se netěšili🥰když nám Pán Bůh🙌🏻zdraví dá💪?
https://twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/1694882796831953265

text: Never Surrender!

picture: the photo they took when you surrendered to them

Nervous
Jan 25, 2005

Why, hello, my little slice of pecan pie.

bird food bathtub posted:

I suspect a not-insignificant amount of the contenders are also doing the math on a geriatric, obese, narcissistic-raging rear end in a top hat that sucks down hamberders all day while thinking exercise depletes your body battery and figuring they've got a more than decent shot at the base's tangerine dream dropping dead at a convenient time. Once he's dead they'll have a, probably metaphorical, knife fight to take the torch out of his still cooling hand and run with it.

Just bring a good cleaver and take the hand with you, it'll be faster so you'll have a head start.

Nieuw Amsterdam
Dec 1, 2006

Dignité. Toujours, dignité.

Fork of Unknown Origins posted:

Yes, particularly this far out, with lots of time for an economic downturn, some sort of gaffes that make people question Biden’s sharpness even more, or any number of things to happen it’s impossible to tell what the election will look like.

I think Trump does somewhat insulate Democratic enthusiasm because a lot of people can get excited to vote against him even if they aren’t excited to vote for Biden (hi, it’s me) but will that be enough? Depends on how bad other things go.

I’m not sure how anyone is looking at the polls, at how close 2020 was, at the time left, and thinking Biden has it in the bag.

Just the facts:

- Trump is, BY FAR, the most unpopular politician in the country via every public poll.

- Trump barely won the Electoral College in 2016 running against the (then) most unpopular politician in the country.

- Trump has never won the popular vote and nobody seriously thinks he will in 2024, all Trump win scenarios emulate 2016 where he ekes out tiny wins in key states.

- Trump needs to flip back ALL of: PA, MI, GA, and AZ to win. The AZ GOP is currently in full meltdown. PA just flipped completely blue for the first time in decades. MI GOP: see Arizona.

- Nationwide abortion ban is on the ballot in 2024 (and every year thereafter). Trump is the direct cause of this. SCOTUS is going to rule on abortion pill availability in June, possibly setting up a blue state abortion ban in states that overwhelmingly support it.

- Predicted recession didn’t happen this year.

- Ukraine didn’t collapse yet.

All of these are facts in hand, no speculation needed.

Hieronymous Alloy
Jan 30, 2009


Why! Why!! Why must you refuse to accept that Dr. Hieronymous Alloy's Genetically Enhanced Cream Corn Is Superior to the Leading Brand on the Market!?!




Morbid Hound

Nervous posted:

Just bring a good cleaver and take the hand with you, it'll be faster so you'll have a head start.

Good idea on paper but then you won't show up on camera.

Fork of Unknown Origins
Oct 21, 2005
Gotta Herd On?

Nieuw Amsterdam posted:

Just the facts:

- Trump is, BY FAR, the most unpopular politician in the country via every public poll.

- Trump barely won the Electoral College in 2016 running against the (then) most unpopular politician in the country.

- Trump has never won the popular vote and nobody seriously thinks he will in 2024, all Trump win scenarios emulate 2016 where he ekes out tiny wins in key states.

- Trump needs to flip back ALL of: PA, MI, GA, and AZ to win. The AZ GOP is currently in full meltdown. PA just flipped completely blue for the first time in decades. MI GOP: see Arizona.

- Nationwide abortion ban is on the ballot in 2024 (and every year thereafter). Trump is the direct cause of this. SCOTUS is going to rule on abortion pill availability in June, possibly setting up a blue state abortion ban in states that overwhelmingly support it.

- Predicted recession didn’t happen this year.

- Ukraine didn’t collapse yet.

All of these are facts in hand, no speculation needed.

I’m not going to argue that any of those are bad things for Biden. Only that there is enough time left for other issues to overshadow them or for the situation to change. It’s unlikely, but Ukraine could fall by the election. A Ukrainian victory by then is also unlikely though. A recession (which the monetary policy was attempting to make happen) could still happen.

Trump is very unpopular and yet polls are still coming out that are very close or show a Trump lead. Polls this far out aren’t very indicative of much of anything, but that’s sort of my point. It’s way too early and there’s not nearly enough information (and there couldn’t be) to not worry about how that election is going to turn out.

Josh Lyman
May 24, 2009


Although we avoided a recession this year, the average American feels like the economy sucks and some of them are dumb enough to think we’re actually in a recession. RWM repeating the lie doesn’t help either.

nachos
Jun 27, 2004

Wario Chalmers! WAAAAAAAAAAAAA!
Did he always say election “interference” or is this some new pivot

FLIPADELPHIA
Apr 27, 2007

Heavy Shit
Grimey Drawer

Nieuw Amsterdam posted:

Just the facts:

- Trump is, BY FAR, the most unpopular politician in the country via every public poll.

- Trump barely won the Electoral College in 2016 running against the (then) most unpopular politician in the country.

- Trump has never won the popular vote and nobody seriously thinks he will in 2024, all Trump win scenarios emulate 2016 where he ekes out tiny wins in key states.

- Trump needs to flip back ALL of: PA, MI, GA, and AZ to win. The AZ GOP is currently in full meltdown. PA just flipped completely blue for the first time in decades. MI GOP: see Arizona.

- Nationwide abortion ban is on the ballot in 2024 (and every year thereafter). Trump is the direct cause of this. SCOTUS is going to rule on abortion pill availability in June, possibly setting up a blue state abortion ban in states that overwhelmingly support it.

- Predicted recession didn’t happen this year.

- Ukraine didn’t collapse yet.

All of these are facts in hand, no speculation needed.

Unless these polls also correctly sample likely voters, then they are nowhere near determinative in predicting election outcomes. Half the country votes.

The popular vote is a meaningless metric. It has no legal or political value and if anything, the public has basically accepted that the GOP can't win the popular vote as being a feature instead of a bug. No one cares.

The margins in the states you listed are thin. Trump lost PA by less than 1.2%, MI by less than 3%, GA by 0.2%, AZ by 0.3%

GA and AZ are just as likely to go Trump as Biden, PA is easily gettable, and MI is within reach. "No speculation needed" is an absurd claim. Absolutely absurd.

Nieuw Amsterdam
Dec 1, 2006

Dignité. Toujours, dignité.

Fork of Unknown Origins posted:

I’m not going to argue that any of those are bad things for Biden. Only that there is enough time left for other issues to overshadow them or for the situation to change. It’s unlikely, but Ukraine could fall by the election. A Ukrainian victory by then is also unlikely though. A recession (which the monetary policy was attempting to make happen) could still happen.

Trump is very unpopular and yet polls are still coming out that are very close or show a Trump lead. Polls this far out aren’t very indicative of much of anything, but that’s sort of my point. It’s way too early and there’s not nearly enough information (and there couldn’t be) to not worry about how that election is going to turn out.

There is always a nonzero chance Trump wins but looking objectively at the setup, would you rather be Trump or Biden?

2016 broke a lot of brains and makes people ascribe magical political powers to Trump, even though the GOP loses elections he isn’t even running in because his stink is so powerful it turns voters off anyone remotely resembling him.

Nieuw Amsterdam
Dec 1, 2006

Dignité. Toujours, dignité.

FLIPADELPHIA posted:

Unless these polls also correctly sample likely voters, then they are nowhere near determinative in predicting election outcomes. Half the country votes.

The popular vote is a meaningless metric. It has no legal or political value and if anything, the public has basically accepted that the GOP can't win the popular vote as being a feature instead of a bug. No one cares.

The margins in the states you listed are thin. Trump lost PA by less than 1.2%, MI by less than 3%, GA by 0.2%, AZ by 0.3%

GA and AZ are just as likely to go Trump as Biden, PA is easily gettable, and MI is within reach. "No speculation needed" is an absurd claim. Absolutely absurd.

PA is easily gettable, just ask Doctor Oz and Doug Mastriano

saccharus
Jan 9, 2023

by Fluffdaddy

Nieuw Amsterdam posted:

Just the facts:

- Trump is, BY FAR, the most unpopular politician in the country via every public poll.

- Trump barely won the Electoral College in 2016 running against the (then) most unpopular politician in the country.

- Trump has never won the popular vote and nobody seriously thinks he will in 2024, all Trump win scenarios emulate 2016 where he ekes out tiny wins in key states.

- Trump needs to flip back ALL of: PA, MI, GA, and AZ to win. The AZ GOP is currently in full meltdown. PA just flipped completely blue for the first time in decades. MI GOP: see Arizona.

- Nationwide abortion ban is on the ballot in 2024 (and every year thereafter). Trump is the direct cause of this. SCOTUS is going to rule on abortion pill availability in June, possibly setting up a blue state abortion ban in states that overwhelmingly support it.

- Predicted recession didn’t happen this year.

- Ukraine didn’t collapse yet.

All of these are facts in hand, no speculation needed.
Yeah whenever I see a poll like “Trump and Biden tied!” I think of this scene from minority report

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IVGQHw9jrsk

The ball is already rolling off the desk and there’s nobody there to catch it.

Plus 2016 made people so paranoid they aren’t going to assume anything and they will vote even if polls are +5 Biden or even +10

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small butter
Oct 8, 2011

Nieuw Amsterdam posted:

Just the facts:

- Trump is, BY FAR, the most unpopular politician in the country via every public poll.

- Trump barely won the Electoral College in 2016 running against the (then) most unpopular politician in the country.

- Trump has never won the popular vote and nobody seriously thinks he will in 2024, all Trump win scenarios emulate 2016 where he ekes out tiny wins in key states.

- Trump needs to flip back ALL of: PA, MI, GA, and AZ to win. The AZ GOP is currently in full meltdown. PA just flipped completely blue for the first time in decades. MI GOP: see Arizona.

- Nationwide abortion ban is on the ballot in 2024 (and every year thereafter). Trump is the direct cause of this. SCOTUS is going to rule on abortion pill availability in June, possibly setting up a blue state abortion ban in states that overwhelmingly support it.

- Predicted recession didn’t happen this year.

- Ukraine didn’t collapse yet.

All of these are facts in hand, no speculation needed.

To add to this, Republicans have been losing elections since Trump got elected. Yes, they "won" the House in 2022 (to quote another SA poster) by a margin that you can count on one hand after a fireworks accident during a time of unprecedented inflation, doom and gloom, and apparently roving gangs ready to kill white suburban women and babies (remember fall 2022?). And Democrats are winning special elections or at the very least swinging them +10, while Democrats are in power, which is an obvious precursor to winning the general. If Republican enthusiasm is outmatched by Democratic enthusiasm on off years, what event will trigger enthusiasm for Republicans prior to the general?

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